Forex News Timeline

Thursday, July 24, 2025

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faltered on Thursday, snapping a four-day winning streak and giving back ground to the US Dollar (USD).

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Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is pulling back after hitting an eight-month high against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The pair reached a session high of 0.6625 before easing to trade near 0.6596 at the time of writing.

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The pair reached a session high of 0.6625 before easing to trade near 0.6596 at the time of writing. The retreat follows a strong rally driven by upbeat economic data and improving global risk sentiment. As the pair approached key resistance, profit-taking and fading momentum triggered the pullback.The rally was fueled by signs of economic resilience in Australia. The preliminary Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on Wednesday, rose to 53.6 in July, the highest in over two years. The index tracks activity in services and manufacturing, showing broad-based expansion. Strong domestic demand and a rebound in industrial output supported the result. The data reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).AUD/USD rises on strong domestic data, steady RBA outlook, and shifting US Dollar dynamicsReinforcing this outlook, RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that while rates remain on hold at 3.85%, Australia’s interest rate cycle may prove shallower than in other advanced economies. Her balanced message underscored the central bank’s commitment to reducing inflation without undermining employment, thereby strengthening investor confidence in the AUD’s fundamental backdrop.Her balanced message emphasized the need for inflation control without significantly harming the labor market, thereby bolstering confidence in the currency's long-term fundamentals.US data released Thursday also reflected economic resiliency. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 217,000, below forecasts, suggesting that the labour market remains robust. The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 54.6, the fastest pace in over a year, despite a disappointing Manufacturing PMI reading. While US economic data remains robust, the US Dollar has shown signs of fatigue amid growing political scrutiny of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing expectations that rates will be lowered this year.This environment has narrowed the interest rate differential with the AUD, making it more attractive to investors seeking returns.Externally, global risk sentiment has improved, particularly as concerns around major trade disputes have eased.AUD/USD bulls take a breather as triangle resistance caps gains at YTD highAUD/USD is retreating after failing to hold above the key resistance zone near 0.6600–0.6625. This area includes the upper boundary of a rising wedge pattern and marks the highest level since November 2024. The pullback suggests hesitation from buyers as momentum slows.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased slightly, now hovering around 59, showing that while bullish momentum remains, it's losing steam. A break below immediate support at 0.6550, a prior breakout level and near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September-April decline, could open the way to 0.6500, where the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (SMA) and lower channel support converge.On the upside, a decisive close above 0.6625 would confirm a breakout from the rising wedge and could trigger a move toward the next resistance at 0.6722, the November 2024 high. Until then, consolidation or a deeper pullback remains possible if risk appetite softens.Technically, AUD/USD is trading within a rising channel and recently bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6550, maintaining a bullish structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 59, indicating strong buying interest without overbought conditions. Additionally, the presence of a Golden Cross — where the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA — continues to support a bullish medium-term outlook.Key levels to monitor include resistance at 0.6600, which coincides with a psychological and structural barrier, and a higher target at 0.6722, the November 2024 high. On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.6550, with further backing from the 50-day EMA and the lower boundary of the rising channel near 0.6498. A decisive break above 0.6600 would open the door for a move toward 0.6722, while failure to hold above support could trigger a deeper pullback. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

Sources revealed that European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers expect to keep rates unchanged, unless they see a deterioration in growth and inflation resumes its downward path, as two sources told Reuters.

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Silver (XAG/USD) edges lower on Thursday after marking a fresh 14-year high of $39.53 on Wednesday, as improving global trade sentiment boosted risk appetite and dented demand for traditional safe-haven assets like precious metals.

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At the time of writing, the metal is hovering around $39.00, down nearly 0.50% on the day. The pullback comes amid broad-based stabilization in the US Dollar (USD) and global equities rallying on optimism surrounding a potential US-EU tariff agreement.Despite the intraday pullback, Silver remains elevated near 14-year highs, hovering around levels last seen in September 2011, highlighting the strength of the prevailing uptrend. The metal is up nearly 2.36% this week, supported by sustained weakness in the Greenback.On the daily chart, Silver continues to track the upper boundary of a well-defined ascending channel that has guided price action since early April. The spot price remains well above the 9-, 21-, and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), all of which are trending higher and reinforcing the broader bullish structure.Momentum indicators also support the ongoing uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has eased modestly to 69 after briefly entering overbought territory, suggesting the rally is cooling without reversing. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is pointing north at around 23.60, indicating that the underlying trend is not only intact but is also slowly gaining strength.On the 1-hour chart, Silver recently broke out of a classic cup-and-handle formation, with the handle forming as a falling wedge — a bullish continuation pattern. However, the breakout has stalled near the $39.50 mark, as buyers struggle to sustain momentum. At the time of writing, the metal is trading just below the 21-period EMA, which has flattened around $39.09 and is currently acting as immediate resistance, capping intraday upside.The RSI on the hourly chart has rebounded from oversold territory and now sits near 46, signaling recovering momentum but lacking strong follow-through. The ADX, meanwhile, is rising to around 35, indicating a firm underlying trend that continues to favor the bulls despite the current pause in price action.With the broader technical structure still leaning bullish, immediate resistance is seen at $39.50, followed by the key psychological hurdle at $40.00. A decisive break above this zone could trigger fresh upside toward $42.00 and potentially $43.00 in the sessions ahead. On the flip side, initial support rests at $38.70 — the July 22 low — followed by the 21-day EMA at $37.70. The 50-day EMA, near $36.30, aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel, offering stronger support and maintaining the broader bullish trend intact. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

United States 4-Week Bill Auction rose from previous 4.23% to 4.245%

The GBP/USD rally stalls as the Greenback stages a recovery, pushing the pair down over 0.24% after registering three straight days of gains that fell short of cracking the 1.3600 figure.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}US Jobless Claims drop to 217K; Services PMI beats, while Manufacturing disappoints.UK Flash PMIs show layoffs rising, reinforcing BoE rate cut expectations for August.Interest rate differential favors Dollar as BoE seen cutting, while Fed stays on hold.The GBP/USD rally stalls as the Greenback stages a recovery, pushing the pair down over 0.24% after registering three straight days of gains that fell short of cracking the 1.3600 figure. Positive economic data in the US triggered a reaction from investors, who trimmed the odds of additional cuts by the Federal Reserve. The pair trades at 1.3548.Cable falls 0.24% to 1.3548 after upbeat jobless claims and PMI data reduce Fed cut odds and widen rate gapThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of claims for the week ending July 19 fell short of estimates, coming in at 217,000, below the 227,000 forecast by analysts, down from 221,000 registered the previous week. Although it’s the lowest level seen since mid-April, Continuing Claims were little changed at 1.96 million, hovering around the highest levels since 2021, which suggests that unemployed workers are struggling to find new jobs.Hence, the Unemployment Rate could rise, which is expected to tick up to 4.2% in the July Nonfarm Payrolls report, due in the following week.US business activity figures for July were mixed, according to S&P Global. The Manufacturing PMI contracted down from June’s 37-month high, hinting at a deterioration in business conditions. The index came at 49.5, down from 52, below estimates of 52.5. Contrarily, the Services PMI expanded by 55.2, exceeding forecasts of 53 and up from 52.9 in June.In the UK, Flash PMIs showed that business activity increased modestly in July, though employers laid off people at the fastest pace in five months, revealed S&P. A further deterioration in the British labor market could prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to reduce interest rates in August.Investors are pricing in an 80% chance of a quarter of a percentage point rate cut by the BoE at the August meeting, with an additional one-point cut towards the end of the year. Contrarily, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged next week, though traders are pricing in 42 basis points of easing. Therefore, the interest rate differential so far favors the Dollar, so further downside in GBP/USD is expected.Ahead in the week, the economic docket will feature UK Retail Sales data on July 25. Across the pond, traders will eye the release of Durable Goods Orders ahead of the July 30 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookAfter the GBP/USD climbed above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3555, it has retreated below the latter, an indication that buyers are lacking the strength of pushing the spot price above 1.3600. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that bullish momentum is fading, with sellers moving in, as depicted by price action.If GBP/USD prints a daily close below July 23 low of 1.3515, this would form a ‘bearish engulfing chart pattern’ an indication that bears beat the bulls at around the 1.3515-1.3600 range, opening the door for a test of 1.3500.On further weakness, GBP/USD could test the current week’s low of 1.3402, followed by June 23 low of 1.3369. Conversely, if buyers push the pair above the 20-day SMA, look for a test of 1.3600. British Pound PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.22% -0.87% -0.84% -0.64% -1.35% -1.19% -0.82% EUR 1.22% 0.43% 0.41% 0.57% -0.16% -0.15% 0.37% GBP 0.87% -0.43% -0.24% 0.18% -0.56% -0.37% 0.13% JPY 0.84% -0.41% 0.24% 0.19% -0.48% -0.41% 0.19% CAD 0.64% -0.57% -0.18% -0.19% -0.64% -0.55% -0.23% AUD 1.35% 0.16% 0.56% 0.48% 0.64% 0.09% 0.66% NZD 1.19% 0.15% 0.37% 0.41% 0.55% -0.09% 0.50% CHF 0.82% -0.37% -0.13% -0.19% 0.23% -0.66% -0.50% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity fell from previous 5 to -3 in July

Limited options ahead of UK’s autumn budget given tight borrowing headroom and political pressures. Government likely wants to wait for accurate OBR estimates as well as economic and political developments before committing to fiscal plans.

Limited options ahead of UK’s autumn budget given tight borrowing headroom and political pressures. Government likely wants to wait for accurate OBR estimates as well as economic and political developments before committing to fiscal plans. Tax hikes seem likely as spending cuts are unpopular and Reeves has committed to narrow fiscal rules, Standard Chartered's economists report. Budget tight, optics tighter"The UK’s autumn budget – to be presented by Chancellor Reeves likely in either October or November – will be very closely watched. The government needs to shore up extremely narrow fiscal headroom, under pressure from skittish Gilt markets in a particularly tough economic and political environment. GDP growth contractions in April and May and higher borrowing costs have squeezed headroom; meanwhile, NATO commitments on defence and U-turns on planned spending cuts significantly limit fiscal-tightening opportunities.""Prime Minister Starmer recently quashed market rumours that Chancellor Reeves may be replaced in the near future, expressing confidence that she will remain in post “into the next election and for many years after”. If this is the case, Reeves’ role in the autumn will be to restore fiscal headroom – which looks on track to be negative – by adopting some combination of tax hikes, spending cuts, or fiscal rule changes. Given the unpopularity of significant spending cuts both among the public and Labour backbenchers, as well as Reeves’ unwavering commitment to meeting the fiscal rules she set out last October, tax rises appear highly likely.""The government explicitly ruled out hiking key taxes (including income tax, VAT, national insurance and corporation tax) in its 2024 manifesto but has recently walked back its once-forceful tone in favour of leaving as many options available as possible ahead of the autumn budget. We think that the government has yet to decide its fiscal path and will keep a watchful eye on UK economic indicators, as well as the OBR’s assessments of how far it might deviate from its fiscal targets, to inform its eventual decision."

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) loses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the Greenback finds its footing after a volatile start to the week.

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The US Dollar is drawing mild support from stabilizing Treasury yields and improving global risk sentiment, with optimism around a potential US-EU trade deal helping ease investor jitters.The USD/CAD pair inches modestly higher on Wednesday, snapping a four-day losing streak as buyers step back in near the 1.3600 psychological level. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3620 during the American session, up about 0.15% on the day.The Loonie’s pullback comes after Canadian Retail sales fell by -1.1% in May, matching market expectations but marking a sharp reversal from April’s 0.3% rise. Meanwhile, Core Retail Sales excluding autos dropped 0.2%, a slight improvement over the expected -0.3% print, although still indicating softening consumer demand.In the United States, preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July offered a mixed view of economic momentum. The flash Composite PMI rose to 54.6, up from 52.9 in June, signaling the fastest pace of overall business activity in seven months. The Services PMI jumped to 55.2, beating expectations of 53.0 and reflecting solid demand in the services sector. However, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, down from a prior reading of 52.0 and below the forecast of 52.5, slipping into contraction territory.Separately, US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 217,000 in the week ending July 19, down from 221,000 and better than the expected 227,000, marking the lowest reading since mid-April. The data reflects continued resilience in the labor market, even as broader market sentiment keeps the Greenback under modest pressure. Continuing Claims, which reflect those still receiving benefits, rose slightly to 1.955 million, pointing to a gradual cooling in re-employment.Despite signs of economic strength, the data failed to lift the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of major peers, is edging lower and was last seen around 97.17 after holding firm earlier in the day. Lingering concerns over ongoing tariff uncertainty and Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence continue to weigh on sentiment. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

EUR/GBP is edging higher on Thursday as traders digest economic data from both regions and a measured tone from the European Central Bank (ECB).At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.8685, holding just below key resistance at 0.8738, as attention turns to diverging growth signals and c

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At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.8685, holding just below key resistance at 0.8738, as attention turns to diverging growth signals and central bank outlooks.The ECB left interest rates unchanged, holding the Deposit Facility at 2.0%, as widely expected. President Christine Lagarde reaffirmed the ECB’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target. She noted that domestic price pressure is easing, particularly as wage growth slows. Lagarde also highlighted that the Eurozone economy has remained resilient, partly due to the effects of earlier interest rate cuts.Flash PMIs highlight diverging growth trends between the Eurozone and the United KingdomThursday’s preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July added further insight into the market’s cautiously optimistic tone. As one of the earliest indicators of economic activity, these forward-looking surveys offered a timely read on conditions across the manufacturing and services sectors. Their influence on interest rate expectations made them particularly relevant for EUR/GBP, where diverging outlooks between the Eurozone and the UK continue to shape short-term direction.In the Eurozone, the Services PMI edged up to 51.2, while the Composite PMI rose to 51.0 — both pointing to modest expansion. In contrast, the UK’s Manufacturing PMI came in slightly above expectations at 48.2 (vs. a forecast of 48.0 and a prior reading of 47.7). However, this was offset by a sharp drop in the Services PMI to 51.2 from 52.8, signaling a potential slowdown in the UK’s dominant services sector.The overall message was one of greater resilience in the Eurozone, while UK data raised questions about momentum, potentially keeping the BoE cautious.EUR/GBP poised for a breakout amid constructive technical setup with critical resistance in sightEUR/GBP is holding firm near 0.8670 and remains within striking distance of its April high at 0.8738 as bulls wait for a catalyst to spark a potential breakout.Despite recent consolidation, the pair remains well-supported by a rising trendline and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8640, a near-term support level.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 61 reflects a bullish bias without entering overbought territory, suggesting there’s still room for another leg higher. EUR/GBP daily chartA daily close above 0.8738 would confirm a breakout and could pave the way toward the next psychological target at 0.8800.On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.8640, while a deeper pullback may find stronger demand near the 0.8550–0.8500 zone. This juncture is critical as it reflects the area where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-April move, 50-day SMA, and 100-day SMA converge. As long as price holds above the rising trendline, the broader bias remains constructive, with upcoming Euro and Pound data likely to drive the next directional move. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below forecasts (28B) in July 18: Actual (23B)

United States New Home Sales (MoM) below expectations (0.65M) in June: Actual (0.627M)

United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5, below expectations (52.5) in July

United States S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (53) in July: Actual (55.2)

United States S&P Global Composite PMI rose from previous 52.9 to 54.6 in July

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

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Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The Euro (EUR) is holding steady against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD snaps a four-day winning streak, trading modestly lower during American trading hours.ECB leaves key interest rates unchanged; Deposit Facility stays at 2.00% and Main Refinancing Rate at 2.15%.Lagarde flagged the Euro’s strength as a headwind to Eurozone export competitiveness.The Euro (EUR) is holding steady against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected. The ECB held its Deposit Rate Facility at 2.00% and the Main Refinancing Operations Rate at 2.15%, while maintaining a cautious, data-dependent tone amid persistent euro strength and growing trade uncertainty with the United States (US). Although the rate decision was fully priced in by markets, the euro came under mild pressure as the European Union scrambles to finalize a trade agreement with Washington ahead of the self-imposed August 1 deadline.At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is ticking modestly lower, snapping a four-day winning streak and hovering around 1.1735 during the American trading hours. The pair’s pullback reflects a mix of cautious sentiment following the ECB’s policy pause and a steady US Dollar.In its official Monetary Policy Statement, the ECB noted that inflation has returned to its 2% medium-term target, and recent economic indicators suggest modest resilience across the eurozone. However, policymakers flagged rising external risks, most notably, escalating trade tensions with the US and the potential impact of a stronger Euro on export competitiveness. The central bank emphasized a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach, offering no explicit forward guidance on the timing or scale of future policy moves.During her press conference in Frankfurt, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that risks to the Eurozone economy remain “tilted to the downside,” citing higher actual and expected US tariffs, the stronger euro, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty as key factors undermining business investment and growth. On trade tensions, Lagarde emphasized that a swift resolution could “lift sentiment and spur activity,” but without a clear resolution, the ECB will remain cautious.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, is trading around 97.40 on Thursday, as investors await key US economic data releases, including the flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Initial Jobless Claims. The upcoming figures could offer fresh insights into the health of the US economy and shape expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.Key quotes"We're not going to be moved away from minor deviation from target in 2026.""You will always find two or three governors very concerned about undershooting.""Retaliation is optional, not definite.""Disinflationary or inflationary impact of tariffs can not yet be determined.""There will probably be bottlenecks as result of tariffs.""We are in wait and watch situation." ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.Key quotes"We don't target exchange rate, we monitor.""Our projections point to inflation stabilising at target in medium term.""Wages are heading in the right direction.""Unit profit continues to buffer wage increase.""Growth in line if not better than baseline.""Confident that inflationary shock is behind us.""Elements will pan out in next few months." Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $683.7B vs previous $685.3B

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.Key quotes"Survey data point to overall modest expansion.""Higher tariffs and stronger Euro are expected make it harder for firms to invest.""Strong labour market, rising real incomes, solid private sector balance sheets support consumption.""Defence and infrastructure investment should bolster growth.""Indicators of underlying inflation suggest inflation will stabilise at target.""Longer-term inflation expectations continue to stand at around 2%.""Risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside.""Outlook for Euro Area inflation is more uncertain than usual." ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance decreased to 217K for the week ending July 19.

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The US Dollar (USD) takes a breather on Thursday after sliding to a two-week low on Wednesday as renewed optimism around global trade deals boosted market sentiment.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The US Dollar steadies after a sharp midweek drop, with DXY holding above the key 97.00 support.Trade optimism lifts risk appetite following bilateral tariff deals with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines.US President Donald Trump to visit the Federal Reserve at 20:00 GMT, intensifying political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.The US Dollar (USD) takes a breather on Thursday after sliding to a two-week low on Wednesday as renewed optimism around global trade deals boosted market sentiment. A breakthrough agreement between the US and Japan, along with hopes of a similar deal between Washington and Brussels, increased risk appetite and reduced safe-haven demand. Concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence also weighed on sentiment. However, a mild technical correction following the recent sell-off is helping the Greenback stabilize.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is recovering modestly. At the time of writing, the index is trading around the 97.40 mark during Thursday's European trading hours, attempting to claw back some ground after a sharp midweek decline.On Wednesday, reports indicated that the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) were making progress toward a trade agreement that could mirror the recently announced US-Japan deal. Diplomats said the agreement would set a 15% baseline tariff on most EU exports to the US, with exemptions for key sectors such as aircraft and medical devices. This marks a significant shift from earlier tensions, when the US threatened to impose tariffs as high as 30% on certain European exports. Still, strategic safeguards remain in place as Brussels prepares a €90-100 billion retaliatory tariff package targeting US goods if talks fail to succeed. With the August 1 deadline approaching and negotiations still underway, the market views this progress as a potential de-escalation in ongoing trade tensions.The US economic docket this Thursday will feature preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Initial Jobless Claims data, as S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs are set for release at 13:45 GMT, followed by Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 GMT. The market forecasts a stable manufacturing PMI of around 52.5 and a modest uptick in services to approximately 53. Analysts say strong PMI readings could reinforce expectations that the Fed will pause interest rate cuts, offering support to the US Dollar, while softer results might increase speculation of a more dovish Fed stance.Market movers: Global markets climb as tariff talks advance and Trump eyes the FedOn Wednesday, US President Donald Trump doubled down on his hardline trade stance, stating that future tariffs on US trading partners would range between 15% and 50%, depending on whether countries grant reciprocal market access. He made it clear that tariff cuts would only be offered to those who open up their markets to American goods and services. The comments followed a string of recently announced bilateral deals, including new 19% tariff agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines. The US president described both deals as “fair and historic,” signaling that more agreements could follow, potentially with the EU and India, ahead of the August 1 deadline.The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury held steady near 4.39% on Thursday, after rising in the previous session. This stability comes amid strong foreign investor demand, particularly from private overseas holders who collectively hold over $5 trillion in US debt, helping to anchor yields despite rising US fiscal deficits, inflation uncertainty and growing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence.Global stock markets moved higher across the board. The Nikkei 225 Index rallied 1.59% to close at 41,826 while the broader Topix Index jumped 1.75% to 2,978 on Thursday, while European indices also rallied, with the STOXX 50 climbing nearly 1% and the broader STOXX 600 advancing 0.6%. US stock futures turned positive, supported by upbeat trade headlines and anticipation ahead of major tech earnings releases.US President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit the Federal Reserve’s Washington headquarters at 20:00 GMT on Thursday, intensifying political pressure on Chair Jerome Powell. The visit comes amid Trump’s continued criticism of high interest rates and scrutiny over the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation project. Markets are watching closely, as the rare presidential appearance at the central bank raises fresh concerns about Fed independence and could stir volatility in the US Dollar and Bond markets.The European Central Bank left its Deposit Rate Facility unchanged at 2.00% on Thursday, in line with expectations, following seven straight cuts. According to the Monetary Policy Statement, the central bank will "follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining appropriate monetary policy stance," adding that the environment "remains exceptionally uncertain, especially because of trade disputes". Despite headline inflation stabilizing around the ECB’s 2% target, policymakers left the door open for a potential rate cut in September, contingent on evolving trade developments and economic data.Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings released Thursday highlighted diverging global trends. The Eurozone's composite PMI rose to 51.0, an 11-month high, while the UK’s slipped to 51.0, signaling a slowdown. In Asia, Australia posted a strong composite reading of 53.6, its best in over a year, driven by resilient service sector performance. Japan’s manufacturing fell into contraction at 48.8, offset by a stable services sector.Technical analysis: US Dollar Index retests falling wedge pattern, eyes on 97.00 supportThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of stabilization on Thursday after extending its recent slide from near four-week highs, with the index hovering around the 97.38 mark. Price action has slowed after breaking below a key support, now turned resistance, near 97.80-98.00, which closely aligns with the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The pullback remains contained above the psychological 97.00 handle, where the index has found some intraday support. The level also coincides with the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern that was decisively broken to the upside last week. This area is now serving as a retest zone and could offer short-term footing as traders reassess the broader trend.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently holding around 42.68, indicating a bearish bias but not yet oversold. This suggests there’s still room for further downside, though the pace of the decline appears to be slowing. The RSI has been trending lower since the rejection from the 99.00 psychological zone and now is attempting to flatten, hinting at possible consolidation or even a corrective bounce if support at 97.00 holds.On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near the 97.80-98.00 zone, which previously served as a key support level. A sustained move above this zone is needed to ease downside pressure and shift short-term momentum in favor of buyers. On the downside, if the 97.00 handle fails to hold, it would confirm a break below the wedge retest zone and expose the index to a deeper pullback toward 96.50, followed by the over three-year low near 96.30 marked on July 1. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.27% 0.32% 0.15% 0.14% -0.16% 0.00% 0.36% EUR -0.27% 0.07% -0.12% -0.11% -0.42% -0.26% 0.09% GBP -0.32% -0.07% -0.16% -0.18% -0.49% -0.33% 0.03% JPY -0.15% 0.12% 0.16% -0.02% -0.32% -0.21% 0.07% CAD -0.14% 0.11% 0.18% 0.02% -0.27% -0.15% 0.21% AUD 0.16% 0.42% 0.49% 0.32% 0.27% 0.15% 0.52% NZD -0.00% 0.26% 0.33% 0.21% 0.15% -0.15% 0.36% CHF -0.36% -0.09% -0.03% -0.07% -0.21% -0.52% -0.36% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) declined to -0.3% in May from previous 3.4%

United States Continuing Jobless Claims below expectations (1.96M) in July 11: Actual (1.955M)

United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 217K, below expectations (227K) in July 18

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 224.5K (July 18) vs previous 229.5K

Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at -0.2% above expectations (-0.3%) in May

Canada Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (-1.1%) in May

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose from previous -0.28 to -0.1 in June

Gold is extending losses for a second straight session on Thursday, pressured by a shift toward risk-on sentiment and a firmer US Dollar.

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Merz told reporters that, “We are hearing at this very moment that decisions may be forthcoming... We are meeting at a time that could not have been better.”The remarks hint at a more strategic and structured approach to trade, which has boosted investor optimism about the possibility of a deal. However, the European Union is still negotiating for key concessions, reportedly pushing for a baseline tariff of 15%. They are also seeking greater clarity on how sector-specific tariffs, such as those on pharmaceuticals, autos and semiconductors, would be applied. These sectors are considered critical to the EU economy, and Brussels is seeking assurances that they won’t face disproportionate penalties under any new US tariff regime.Gold daily digest market movers: Jobless Claims, PMIs, and Fed expectationsGold prices on Thursday may also react to a slate of fresh US economic data, which could influence interest rate expectations, Treasury yields, and the Gold Market.At 12:30 GMT, the weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims figures will be released, offering insight into labor market conditions. This will be followed at 13:45 GMT by preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs for July, key forward-looking indicators of business activity. Finally, at 14:00 GMT, New Home Sales data for June will provide an update on the US housing market and whether pressures from high mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand.Jobless claims have surprised to the downside in recent weeks, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates elevated for longer. This trend supports US Treasury yields and the Greenback, both headwinds for non-yielding assets like Gold.This week, Initial Jobless Claims are expected at 227,000, slightly higher than the prior 221,000, potentially signaling early signs of labor market softness. However, confirmation through broader data would be needed to shift Fed expectations meaningfully.On the PMI front, Manufacturing is forecast to rise to 52.5 (from 52), while Services is seen at 53 (from 52.9), suggesting growing business confidence and economic momentum.The market is increasingly weighing the potential for a more stable global trade environment, which, coupled with resilient US economic data and the possibility of the Fed maintaining higher interest rates, may shift investor preference toward risk assets and US yields over Gold.Conversely, weaker-than-expected numbers may boost dovish sentiment, supporting bullion.Gold technical analysis: XAU/USD loses grip on breakout, $3,372 turns into resistance ahead of key dataGold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,363, extending losses after failing to hold gains above the key $3,400 level. The recent move has pushed the price below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April low-to-high move, which currently provides resistance at $3,372.This breakdown puts the spotlight on support at $3,338, where the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and prior triangle resistance intersect. A sustained move below this level would weaken the bullish structure and open the door toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3,292, followed by $3,228 (50% Fibo level), both marking deeper correction zones.On the upside, bulls need to reclaim $3,372 to shift short-term momentum back toward $3,400 and then $3,457, the recent swing high. A close above those levels would revive prospects for a move toward the April record high near $3,500.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 continues to signal neutral momentum, suggesting Gold is consolidating ahead of critical macro data. Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2%)

Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate in line with forecasts (2.15%)

Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.15% below forecasts (0.27%) in July

Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.15%, below expectations (0.21%) in July

NZD/USD is consolidating yesterday’s gains around 0.6050. RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway maintained a dovish tone, BBH FX analysts report.

NZD/USD is consolidating yesterday’s gains around 0.6050. RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway maintained a dovish tone, BBH FX analysts report. Scope for further OCR cuts"Conway warned that 'Global tariffs and economic uncertainty are likely to mean less inflation pressures in New Zealand and a pullback in business investment and household spending.' Importantly, Conway reaffirmed the bank’s view that it 'sees scope to lower the OCR further if medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as projected'.""In our view, the RBNZ has one more cut in the pipeline. New Zealand inflation is within the target band and the policy rate is close to the RBNZ mid-point estimate of the neutral range between 2% and 4%. The swaps market price-in 86% probability of a 25bps RBNZ rate cut at the August 20 meeting." "Over the next 12 months, the swaps market price-in 40bps of easing and the policy rate to bottom between 2.75% and 3.00%. Bottom line: there is room for New Zealand rate expectations to adjust higher in favor of NZD."

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades almost 0.7% lower around $3,360 during the European trading session on Thursday.

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Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
 

The US Dollar is ticking higher against the Canadian Dollar on Thursday and has risen above 1.3600, although it remains close to one-year lows at the 1.3540 area, driven by risk-on markets, following the release of US preliminary PMIs and weekly Jobless Claims data.

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The US Dollar remains weighed near lows on risk-on markets.Investors are celebrating an imminent trade deal with the E,U which would bring more clarity to the global trade outlook.Later today, US PMIs and Jobless Claims, and Canada’s Retail Sales will provide further fundamental guidance.The US Dollar is ticking higher against the Canadian Dollar on Thursday and has risen above 1.3600, although it remains close to one-year lows at the 1.3540 area, driven by risk-on markets, following the release of US preliminary PMIs and weekly Jobless Claims data.
News of advances in a EU-US trade deal, which would include 15% tariffs and exemptions for automobiles, medical equipment, and alcohol, has boosted the market mood in Asia and Europe, keeping the safe-haven US Dollar on the defensive.

This news follows a trade deal with Japan and another with the Philippines and Indonesia on Wednesday, and US Treasury Secretary Bessent has announced a new round of talks with China for next week. Hopes that the worst of trade tariffs can be averted are boosting investors’ appetite for risk.US PMIs and Jobless Claims data in the spotlightIn the calendar today, US preliminary PMIs are expected to show that business economic activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors expanded in July, highlighting a strong economic momentum, yet with Jobless Claims increasing.Later today, President Trump is expected to visit the Federal Reserve amid a fierce campaign against Chairman Powell and only a few days ahead of July’s meeting. It is unclear whether the President will meet Powell, but there is the feeling that he will be increasing pressure on the bank to cut rates further.

In Canada, the focus will be on May’s Retail Sales figures, which are expected to have contracted, with the core reading, excluding automobiles, is falling for the third consecutive month. These numbers hint at further BoC monetary easing, and are unlikely to provide any significant support to the Loonie. Economic Indicator S&P Global Manufacturing PMI The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 13:45 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 52.5 Previous: 52 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator S&P Global Services PMI The S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 03, 2025 13:45 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 52.9 Consensus: 53.1 Previous: 53.1 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) The Retail Sales ex Auto data, released by Statistics Canada on a monthly basis, measures the total value of goods sold by retailers in Canada excluding the key sector of motor vehicles and parts. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: -0.3% Previous: -0.3% Source: Statistics Canada

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Thursday’s NA session unchanged against the US Dollar (USD), having faded its early Asian session gains driven by the release of a mixed set of PMI’s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Thursday’s NA session unchanged against the US Dollar (USD), having faded its early Asian session gains driven by the release of a mixed set of PMI’s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. JPY flat on the daily chart"Markets clearly celebrated the data with a specific focus on the surprise in services (53.5 vs. 51.7 prev.) as they ignored the weaker manufacturing (48.8 vs. 50.1 prev.) print. "The data should provide additional confidence to policymakers at the BoJ as they look to resume their policy tightening following the successful conclusion of US/Japan trade talks and the passing of last weekend’s upper house election. Interest rate differentials are offering the JPY support, as we note a continued narrowing in US-Japan spreads." "We look to near-term strength in the JPY as we approach the July 31 BoJ meeting. For USD/JPY, we look to near-term weakness and a decline toward the lower end of the recent range, at 142.00."

AUD/USD broke higher through key resistance level at 0.6600, reaching its highest level since August 2024.

AUD/USD broke higher through key resistance level at 0.6600, reaching its highest level since August 2024. Improved financial market risk sentiment from easing trade tensions, rising iron ore prices, and faster Australian private sector growth momentum underpin the rally in AUD, BBH FX analysts report. PMIs boost Aussie"Australia’s composite PMI increased to 53.6 vs. 51.6 in June, the highest since April 2022. The improvement was broad-based with faster service sector growth and a renewed expansion in manufacturing production.""Meanwhile, RBA Governor Michele Bullock stuck to the bank’s guidance for 'a measured and gradual approach' to monetary policy easing. Bullock brushed off Australia’s weak June labor force report noting that 'leading indicators are not pointing to further significant increases in the unemployment rate in the near term.'  Bullock also warned that 'the monthly CPI Indicator data, which are volatile, suggest that the fall in trimmed mean inflation over Q2, due next week may not be quite as much as we forecast back in May.' The RBA forecasts trimmed inflation of 2.6% y/y in Q2 vs. 2.9% in Q1.""The RBA looks set to resume easing on August 12. RBA cash rate futures continue to fully price-in a 25bps cut in August and 75bps of total easing in the next 12 months."

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is weak, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies with the exception of CHF, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is weak, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies with the exception of CHF, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Markets focus on BoE "Disappointing preliminary PMI’s are weighing on the pound, specifically the softer services PMI (51.2 vs. 52.9 exp. & 52.8 prev.) as the manufacturing release offered a modest surprise (48.2 vs. 48.0 exp. & 47.7 prev.). The CBI sentiment figures were in line with expectations and market participants will be looking to Friday’s retail sales as the highlight of the week." "None of these data releases are likely to change the BoE’s thinking ahead of the August 7 policy decision, where the central bank is set to deliver a widely expected hold. The outlook remains dovish, with markets roughly pricing one additional 25bpt cut by year end." "The multi-month bull trend once again looks to be faltering. The RSI is close to neutral at 50 and the latest pullback has found near-term support around the 50 day MA (1.3529). We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3500 support and 1.3580 resistance."

USD/JPY recovered above 146.00 after testing a two-week low yesterday around 145.86, BBH FX analysts report.

USD/JPY recovered above 146.00 after testing a two-week low yesterday around 145.86, BBH FX analysts report. BoJ rate hike odds limited"Japan private sector growth traction held steady in July. The composite PMI printed at 51.5 for as second consecutive month in July. The increase in service sector activity (53.5 in July vs. 51.7 in June) was offset by a contraction in manufacturing output (48.8 in July vs. 50.1 in June).""Japan’s swaps market still price-in 80% odds of a 25bps Bank of Japan rate hike to 0.75% in December. In the next two years, markets imply just 50bps of rate increases. In our view, the BOJ’s cautious normalization cycle limits JPY upside."

The Euro (EUR) is soft, down a modest 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) as we head into Thursday’s NA session and the 8:15am ET ECB policy decision (followed by the 8:45am ET press conference), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Euro (EUR) is soft, down a modest 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) as we head into Thursday’s NA session and the 8:15am ET ECB policy decision (followed by the 8:45am ET press conference), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. EUR is trading soft on the day"The preliminary PMI’s offered little in terms of the broader narrative, as the manufacturing PMI met expectations with a 49.8 print while services offered a marginal surprise at 51.2. The ECB is widely expected to deliver a hold and strike a neutral tone in terms of the rate outlook." "On trade, Wednesday’s news of a looming US/EU agreement (imposing 15% tariffs on US imports from the EU) helped push the EUR to a fresh local high however the common currency has yet to fully retrace its pullback from the July 1 high in the mid/lower-1.18s. The multi-month trend is bullish with a sequence of higher lows and higher highs since February." "The RSI is around 60, allowing momentum to confirm the trend. We continue to highlight the importance of trend support at the 50 day MA (1.1546) and see limited resistance between the current levels and the July 1 high in the mid/lower-1.18s. We look to a near-term range bound between support at 1.1700 and resistance at 1.1800."

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is modestly lower on the session, unable to find any lift today from the bid for its FX commodity cousins or global stocks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is modestly lower on the session, unable to find any lift today from the bid for its FX commodity cousins or global stocks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Retail Sales expected to drop"While our CAD fair value estimate continues to point to a modest undervaluation (today’s estimated equilibrium sits at a fractionally lower 1.3535), the CAD may struggle to progress in the short run absent a broader tun lower in the USD. Canadian Retail Sales are expected to fall 1.0% in May, in line with the preliminary decline reported with the April data." "Looking forward, seasonal trends are also poised to turn somewhat less favourable for the CAD over the late summer period. That trend coincides with (and may be somewhat contingent on) equity markets typically experiencing more volatility over the period, however." "USD/CAD’s rebound from the upper 1.35 zone yesterday may mark the low point for funds in the short run. Short-term price signals are USD-bullish after an outside range higher formed yesterday morning. Broader trend dynamics remain USD-bearish though so it may be a case of USD/CAD pushing higher briefly before the downtrend resumes. Look for USD resistance at 1.3650/75."

The US Dollar (USD) is trading a little higher overall on the session but its performance is more mixed against the G10 currencies and it slipped to its lowest since November against the CNY in overnight trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading a little higher overall on the session but its performance is more mixed against the G10 currencies and it slipped to its lowest since November against the CNY in overnight trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. USD decline stabilizes but headwinds from tariffs"Risk sentiment is positive as progress is made on trade deals, despite criticism that the US/Japan trade agreement will do little to alter trade dynamics given the relief granted to Japanese automakers. Meanwhile, the average effective tariff facing US consumers remains elevated (around 20%) which will underpin worries about inflation gains in the short run and the potential constraint on consumer activity that tariffs may cause. The AUD and NZD are leading gains among the G10 currencies on the back of the pro-risk mood while dollar/Europe trades firmer on the day so far." "The rebound in the USD may be temporary. While tariffs are likely to deliver a one-off increase in the price level, investors are clearly concerned that inflation risks becoming more entrenched, the more so perhaps amid the continued criticism of Fed policy by President Trump and pressure for lower interest rates. The 2Y US inflation swap has edged a little lower today but remains above 3% while futures continue to reflect around 100bps of Fed rates cuts over the next 12 months. We remain negative on the outlook for the USD in the medium term and think that the gains seen through the first half of July have likely run their course." "The technical bear trend remains intact and trend dynamics are strengthening again after the early July consolidation. Event risk is a little higher today than earlier this week. The ECB policy decision is not expected to result in any policy adjustment but attention will be paid to how President Lagarde characterizes the outlook. US weekly Initial Claims are expected to edge up modestly, keeping Continuing Claims somewhat elevated. US July PMI data may reflect relatively resilient activity but price and employment sub-components will be of interest."

Pound Sterling (GBP) is underperforming most major currencies, BBH's FX analysts report.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is underperforming most major currencies, BBH's FX analysts report.Inflation limits BoE easing"The UK composite PMI fell more than expected to a 2-month low at 51.0 (consensus: 51.8) vs. 52.0 in June driven by an unexpected slowdown in services sector activity. The services PMI dropped to a 2-month low at 51.2 (consensus: 52.9) vs. 52.8 in June, while the manufacturing PMI improved to a 6-month high at 48.2 (consensus: 48.0) vs. 47.7 in June.""Meanwhile, prices charged by private sector businesses increased at a robust pace in July, with the rate of inflation picking up for the first time since April. Sticky underlying inflation suggests the Bank of England has limited room to dial-up easing to support growth. The swaps market price-in 95% odds of a 25bps cut to 4.00% at the August 7 meeting and a total of 75bps of easing over the next 12 months.""The unfavorable UK macro backdrop of sluggish growth and elevated price pressure spells trouble for GBP, especially versus EUR."

Wall Street futures anticipate a mixed opening on Thursday, as the enthusiasm about trade deals wears off. Dow Jones futures are trading 0.30% lower at the time of writing, while S&P 500 Index futures trade 0.10% higher and the Nasdaq Index advances 0.3%, pointing to new record highs.

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Wall Street futures anticipate a mixed opening on Thursday, as the enthusiasm about trade deals wears off. Dow Jones futures are trading 0.30% lower at the time of writing, while S&P 500 Index futures trade 0.10% higher and the Nasdaq Index advances 0.3%, pointing to new record highs.

In the trade front, US negotiators are finally reporting some advances on deals with major partners, easing concerns about full-blown trade wars and boosting investors’ appetite for risk in Asia and Europe.

News reports that the US is closing in on a deal with the Eurozone are keeping market sentiment buoyed on Thursday. This agreement would include 15% tariffs, with exceptions for certain products, and comes after a similar agreement with Japan was reached on Wednesday. Beyond that, US Treasury Secretary Bessent affirmed that a second round of trade talks with China would take place next week, contributing to the overall positive sentiment.Upbeat quarterly earnings have boosted Wall Street Indexes this weekSecond-quarter earnings are on the way, bringing positive news so far. About 23% of the S&P 500 companies have reported their results, with 85% of them beating expectations, according to data by LSEG.On Wednesday, Google’s Alphabet beat expectations after the closing bell, boosted by AI spending. On the other hand, Tesla reported a 23% decline in earnings and signalled harsh quarters ahead.

On the macroeconomic front, US Preliminary PMIs are expected to show that business activity expanded moderately in July. Jobless claims are expected to have grown moderately in the previous week.

Meanwhile, Trump is expected to visit the Federal Reserve on Thursday. With July’s monetary policy meeting around the corner, rumour has it that the President would be seeking to increase pressure on the bank to cut interest rates. The market, however, is practically discarding a rate cut at the next meeting. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

Risk for US Dollar (USD) remains on the downside against Chinese Yuan (CNH); the significant support level at 7.1295 is probably out of reach for now. In the longer run, USD view is negative; it could drop to 7.1295, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Risk for US Dollar (USD) remains on the downside against Chinese Yuan (CNH); the significant support level at 7.1295 is probably out of reach for now. In the longer run, USD view is negative; it could drop to 7.1295, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD view is negative24-HOUR VIEW: "We detected 'a soft underlying tone' yesterday. We indicated that 'this is likely to lead to a lower range of 7.1635/7.1800 rather than a sustained decline.' The subsequent price movements did not turn out as we expected. USD plunged and not only broke below 7.1635 but also the major support level at 7.1550. Given the strong downward momentum, the risk for USD remains on the downside. However, the significant support level at 7.1295 is probably out of reach for now (there is another support level at 7.1400). To sustain the strong downward momentum, USD must hold below 7.1630 (minor resistance is at 7.1560)."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held the same view since last Monday (14 Jul, spot at 7.1730), wherein USD 'is expected to trade in a range between 7.1550 and 7.1920.' After trading in a relatively quiet manner for several days, USD plummeted and closed at 7.1514 yesterday, down by 0.25%. There has been a sharp increase in downward momentum, and we are revising our USD view to negative, anticipating a drop to 7.1295. We will maintain our view provided that USD remains below the ‘strong resistance’ level, currently at 7.1730."

EUR/USD pared back some of yesterday’s gains but is holding above 1.1700, BBH's FX analysts report.

EUR/USD pared back some of yesterday’s gains but is holding above 1.1700, BBH's FX analysts report.Lagarde’s guidance in focus as ECB holds"The ECB is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.00%. With no new ECB economic projections released at this meeting, President Christine Lagarde’s post-meeting press conference will be key for policy insights.""In our view, the bar for more ECB interest rate cuts is high which is EUR supportive. First, Eurozone services inflation still has some distance to travel to make sure that inflation stabilizes at the target on a sustainable basis.""Second, the Eurozone July PMI suggests private sector economic activity is slowly picking up pace. The composite PMI rose more than expected to an 11-month high at 51.0 (consensus: 50.7) vs. 50.6 in June driven by faster services sector growth momentum (51.2 vs. 50.5 in June) and a slower contraction in manufacturing activity (49.8 vs. 49.5 in June)."

The European Union (EU) continues to engage intensively with the United States (US) on tariffs and focuses on finding a negotiated outcome, a European Commission spokesperson said on Thursday, per Reuters.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The European Union (EU) continues to engage intensively with the United States (US) on tariffs and focuses on finding a negotiated outcome, a European Commission spokesperson said on Thursday, per Reuters. "We believe such an outcome is within reach," the spokesperson added but noted they remain prepared for all scenarios.Market reactionThese comments failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction. At the time of press, EUR/USD was trading at 1.1745, losing 0.23% on a daily basis. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 145.95/146.95 against Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, rapid increase in momentum indicates USD could weaken to 145.75, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 145.95/146.95 against Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, rapid increase in momentum indicates USD could weaken to 145.75, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Rapid increase in momentum indicates USD can weaken24-HOUR VIEW: "USD dropped sharply on Tuesday. Yesterday (Wednesday), when USD was at 146.60, we stated that 'strong downward momentum suggests further USD weakness.' However, we pointed out that 'due to the oversold conditions, any decline might not be able to break the major support at 145.75.' USD declined less than expected, dropping to a low of 146.09 before settling at 146.49 (-0.10%). Today, USD is likely to trade in a range, but the residual downward momentum suggests a lower range of 145.90/146.90."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Following the sharp decline in USD earlier this week, we highlighted the following yesterday (24 Jul, spot at 146.60): 'The rapid increase in momentum indicates USD could weaken to 145.75. If it breaks clearly below this level, the next level to watch is 144.95. To keep the momentum going, USD must hold below 148.00.' We maintain our but we are lowering the ‘strong resistance’ level from 148.00 to 147.60."

USD bounces after a string of losses, the MSCI All Country World Index surged to a record high, and global bond yields are drifting higher, BBH's FX analysts report.

USD bounces after a string of losses, the MSCI All Country World Index surged to a record high, and global bond yields are drifting higher, BBH's FX analysts report.Global stocks hit record as tariff talks advance"Trade deal optimism has turbocharged risk assets. Yesterday, the media reported the US was closing in on an agreement with the EU that would set a 15% tariff for most products. This would be down from the threatened 30% levy if both sides fail to reach an agreement by August 1.""USD can find additional near-term support if the US July S&P Global PMI points to faster private sector growth momentum (9:45am New York, 2:45pm London). The composite PMI is projected at 52.8 vs. 52.9 in June, services is expected at 53.0 vs. 52.9 in June, and manufacturing is seen at 52.7 vs. 52.9 in June. Nonetheless, the year-to-date USD downtrend is intact in our view."

The USD/JPY pair recovers its early losses and flattens around 146.50 during the European trading session on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY bounces back as the US Dollar attracts bids ahead of the flash US PMI data for July.The US Composite PMI is estimated to have expanded at a faster pace.US-Japan trade agreement revives hopes of further monetary policy tightening by the BoJ this year.The USD/JPY pair recovers its early losses and flattens around 146.50 during the European trading session on Thursday. The pair bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) snaps four-day losing streak ahead of the flash United States (US) S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be published at 13:45 GMT.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds to near 97.40 in European trading hours from an almost three-week low around 97.00 posted earlier in the day.Economists expect the US Composite PMI to have grown at a faster pace, contributed by expansion in both manufacturing and the service sector activity.The US Dollar faced a sharp selling pressure in past few trading sessions as demand for safe-haven assets diminished, following the announcement of a trade agreement between the US and Japan. Meanwhile, a report from Financial Times (FT) has also signaled that the US and the European Union (EU) are close to reaching a trade pact.Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) gives up some initial gains even as US-Japan trade agreement has improved market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates again this year.Going forward, major triggers for the pair will monetary policy announcements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and BoJ, which are scheduled for next week.  US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

As long as New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds above 0.6015 against US Dollar (USD), it may test 0.6060 before leveling off. In the longer run, NZD could continue to rise; the next level to watch is 0.6080, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

As long as New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds above 0.6015 against US Dollar (USD), it may test 0.6060 before leveling off. In the longer run, NZD could continue to rise; the next level to watch is 0.6080, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.NZD is set to continue to rise24-HOUR VIEW: "We did not expect NZD to soar to a high of 0.6047 (we were expecting consolidation). The sharp rise appears excessive, but as long as NZD holds above 0.6015 (minor support is at 0.6030), it may test 0.6060 before leveling off. Based on the current overbought momentum, any further advance is unlikely to reach 0.6080.1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We pointed out yesterday (23 Jul, spot at 0.5990) that 'upward momentum is increasing.' However, we highlighted that NZD 'must first close above 0.6010 before a move to 0.6040 can be expected.' We did not expect NZD to quickly soar and surpass 0.6040 (high of 0.6047). NZD could continue to rise, and the next level to watch is 0.6080. On the downside, if NZD breaks below 0.5985, it would mean that it is not advancing further."

AUD/USD remains supported above its 50-DMA, with positive momentum pointing to further upside toward 0.6685 and beyond. Short-term support holds near 0.6500, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

AUD/USD remains supported above its 50-DMA, with positive momentum pointing to further upside toward 0.6685 and beyond. Short-term support holds near 0.6500, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. AUD eyes next targets at 0.6685 and 0.6720"AUD/USD reclaimed the 50-DMA in April resulting in a steady up move. Recent pullbacks have found support around this MA highlighting prevalence of upward momentum. This is also denoted by the daily MACD, which remains anchored within positive territory." "The pair looks poised to continue its up move. The next objectives are located at 0.6685 and projections of 0.6720/0.6765. The MA at 0.6500 is a short-term support."

The Aussie is pulling back from the eight-month highs at 0.6625 hit earlier today, as the US Dollar pares some losses, but remains above 0.6600, consolidating gains after having rallied about 2% over the last five days.The trade deal between the US and Japan and hopes of an immediate agreement with

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The Aussie is pulling back from the eight-month highs at 0.6625 hit earlier today, as the US Dollar pares some losses, but remains above 0.6600, consolidating gains after having rallied about 2% over the last five days.

The trade deal between the US and Japan and hopes of an immediate agreement with the Eurozone have eased concerns about a global trade war and are boosting investors’ appetite for risk.

Apart from that, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent affirmed earlier this week that US and Chinese officials will meet in Stockholm next week, aiming to extend the tariff deadline. This news adds support to the AUD, as China is Australia’s major trading partner.Earlier today, RBA Governour, Michelle Bullock, reiterated the need for a cautious approach on interest rates as she assessed, inflationary risks have been brought under control without deteriorating the labour market. These comments cast doubt on the widely expected rate cut after the August 12 meeting and have provided additional support to the Aussie.

The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains on the defensive amid the positive market sentiment, with investors awaiting US Preliminary PMI figures and weekly Jobless claims data for further insight into the economic activity and the momentum of the labor market. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.


Australian Dollar (AUD) could continue to rise against US Dollar (USD); deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance may not reach 0.6625.

Australian Dollar (AUD) could continue to rise against US Dollar (USD); deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance may not reach 0.6625. In the longer run, rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to further AUD advance to 0.6625, potentially reaching 0.6645, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to further AUD advance24-HOUR VIEW: "When AUD was at 0.6550 yesterday, we noted that 'momentum is increasing, albeit not by much.' While we expected AUD to 'edge higher,' we were of the view that 'any advance is unlikely to reach 0.6575.' Our directional call was correct, but we did not expect the sudden upward acceleration as AUD soared above 0.6575 and broke a significant resistance at 0.6595 (high of 0.6603). While AUD could continue to rise today, deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance may not reach 0.6625. On the downside, any pullback is likely to hold above 0.6565, with minor support at 0.6585."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (23 Jul, spot at 0.6550), we highlighted that 'there has been a slight increase in upward momentum.' We added, AUD 'could edge higher toward 0.6575.' We pointed out that 'to maintain the momentum, AUD must hold above 0.6505.' However, instead of edging higher, AUD surged and reached a high of 0.6603. The rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to further advance to 0.6625, potentially reaching 0.6645. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level is now at 0.6530 instead of 0.6505."

EUR/USD is recovering after finding support near 1.1555, but the pair faces a key test at 1.1830. A failure to break above this resistance could trigger a period of consolidation, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

EUR/USD is recovering after finding support near 1.1555, but the pair faces a key test at 1.1830. A failure to break above this resistance could trigger a period of consolidation, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. Euro rebounds, but momentum remains fragile"EUR/USD breached the multi-month ascending trend line earlier this month however the downward momentum has failed to regain. The pair has carved out an interim trough at 1.1555, which is now also the 50-DMA." "A gradual rebound has materialized after this test. EUR/USD is inching towards recent pivot high of 1.1830. It will be interesting to see if it can establish beyond this hurdle. Inability to cross 1.1830 could result in a consolidation phase. The low achieved earlier in July at 1.1555 is key support."

Pound Sterling (GBP) could test 1.3610 before leveling off; the next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to be threatened.

Pound Sterling (GBP) could test 1.3610 before leveling off; the next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to be threatened. In the longer run, outlook for GBP remains positive, but the next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to come into view so soon, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Outlook for GBP remains positive24-HOUR VIEW: "Subsequent to the strong advance in GBP early this week, we highlighted yesterday that 'the sharp rise over the past couple of days appears to be overdone, and instead of continuing to advance, GBP is more likely to consolidate today, probably between 1.3475 and 1.3535.' Our view of consolidation was incorrect, as GBP continued to rise, reaching a high of 1.3585. The advance still appears to be overextended, but upward momentum is not showing signs of easing just yet. Today, GBP could test 1.3610 before leveling off. The next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to be threatened. To sustain the overbought momentum, GBP must hold above 1.3530, with minor support at 1.3555."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Two days ago (22 Jul, spot at 1.3485), we indicated that GBP 'is likely to trade in a range between 1.3415 and 1.3535.' After GBP rose to a high of 1.3434, we pointed out yesterday (23 Jul, spot at 1.3520) that 'a clear break above 1.3535 would indicate that GBP could rise to 1.3575.' We did not expect the rapid build-up in momentum, as GBP not only rose above 1.3535, but also 1.3575 (high has been 1.3585). Although the outlook for GBP remains positive, short-term conditions are deeply overbought, and the next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to come into view so soon. Note that there is another resistance level at 1.3610. Overall, only a breach of 1.3490 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.3455 yesterday) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased."

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 86.12 on Thursday, down from 86.29 on Wednesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

While negative divergence is forming, Euro (EUR) could edge above 1.1795 against US Dollar (USD); the major resistance at 1.1830 is likely out of reach for now.

While negative divergence is forming, Euro (EUR) could edge above 1.1795 against US Dollar (USD); the major resistance at 1.1830 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, price action indicates further EUR strength, likely toward 1.1795, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Price action indicates further EUR strength24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR rose sharply and reached a high of 1.1760 two days ago before easing. In the early Asian session yesterday, when EUR was at 1.1740, we held the view that 'while there is potential for EUR to rise above 1.1765 today, overbought conditions suggest it might not beable to hold above this level.' We added, 'the next resistance at 1.1795 is unlikely to come under threat.' We also pointed out that 'to sustain the overbought momentum, EUR must hold above 1.1700, with minor support at 1.1720.' After dipping to a low of 1.1709 in the early NY session, EUR rose to a high of 1.1775 before closing at 1.1770, up by 0.14%. While negative divergence is starting to form, EUR could edge above the 1.1795 level before a pullback can be expected. Given the negative divergence, the major resistance at 1.1830 is likely out of reach for now. On the downside, the two support levels to watch are 1.1755 and 1.1735."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (23 Jul, spot at 1.1740) still stands. As highlighted, the recent price action 'indicates further EUR strength, likely toward 1.1795.' Looking ahead, a clear break above 1.1795 will shift the focus to 1.1830. Overall, only a breach of 1.1690 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1655 yesterday) would indicate that EUR is not strengthening further."

Expectations have intensified for the Turkish central bank (CBT) to resume cutting interest rates today: with analyst forecasts for a cut between 250bp and 350bp (majority expectation for 250bp).

Expectations have intensified for the Turkish central bank (CBT) to resume cutting interest rates today: with analyst forecasts for a cut between 250bp and 350bp (majority expectation for 250bp). This prospect already became clear during the last rate meeting: CBT kept the rate unchanged then, but made subtle changes to its language and communication which made it clear that the central bank was gearing to cut rates soon – reference to the potential for monetary tightening was removed from the statement, and replaced with statements that the CB would utilise all tools in case the inflation outlook were to worsen later, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.Lira is likely to keep depreciating faster"The rationale which CBT will repeat today in defence of rate cuts is that inflation has been moderating steadily. We, ourselves, do not find recent inflation or balance of payments developments too convincing: we dismiss apparent trends based on year-on-year price changes; seasonally-adjusted month-on-month CPI increase still annualises to nearly 30%, which is incompatible with CBT’s end-2025 inflation forecast. If one were to trust the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) cost of living data more than the official CPI, then inflation is running even faster.""Furthermore, several fundamental factors are currently pro-inflationary, including recent upward adjustment to wholesale natural gas tariffs by the state energy company, the higher oil price now (compared with April-May), and around 26% running rate of lira depreciation. Last but not least, there may have been some improvement in capital inflow recently, but that was a rebound from the low of March-April, and also boosted by primary issuance. Net FX reserves, excluding swaps, fell in June by a steep 9.5% to their lowest level since August 2024 – in other words, capital flows remain volatile and confidence has not yet been fully restored.""Given these complexities, and despite the optical improvement in year-on-year inflation, we believe the credibility of the policy framework necessitates a more cautious approach than aggressive early rate cuts. The lira is likely to keep depreciating faster, particularly if CBT were to make complacent assessments about inflation and proceed with significant rate reductions over the coming quarter."

The Turkish central bank is likely to return to the cutting cycle today after tightening conditions in March and April. We expect a 250bp cut to 43.50% in line with market surveys. However, expectations are tilted towards a larger rate cut.

The Turkish central bank is likely to return to the cutting cycle today after tightening conditions in March and April. We expect a 250bp cut to 43.50% in line with market surveys. However, expectations are tilted towards a larger rate cut. At the same time, the CBT usually follows market expectations and likes to stay on the hawkish side to maintain TRY stability. Therefore, 250bp seems the safest to restart the cutting cycle that began late last year, ING’s FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes.USD/TRY continues its gradual upward trajectory "Although inflation expectations continue to decline gradually and inflation has seen some slowdown in recent months, the overall picture is not ideal for the central bank. The economy is visibly slowing down but inflation expectations for the end of this year remain well above the CBT forecast, close to 30%, which is also our forecast (29%). So today we will be closely monitoring the size of the rate cut, as it will reveal the central bank's willingness to consider further cuts. Additionally, the forward guidance provided will offer more insights. We expect another 250bp rate cuts this year with 35% by year-end.""USD/TRY continues its gradual upward trajectory with the recent break of the 40.00 level, and not much will change here in the near term in our view, with 43.00 at the end of this year. The central bank has been allowing less carry for long TRY investors in recent months but at the same time seems to have FX fully under control, reducing the chance of any sudden USD/TRY moves to the upside. The market has also priced in more rate cuts and OIS and FX implieds have essentially returned to almost pre-March levels, making pricing less attractive here. Overall, TRY still offers a reliable source of safe carry, but the returns have understandably diminished as the CBT moves to normalise conditions."

USD/CHF edges higher for the second successive day, trading around 0.7940 during the European hours on Thursday.

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The pair appreciates as the Swiss Franc (CHF) struggles due to weakened safe-haven demand, driven by the optimism over further trade deals between the United States (US) and key partners. Investors are likely awaiting the S&P US Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July later in the day.The Swiss Franc (CHF) may regain ground as traders expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to delay further easing of monetary policy following the recent Swiss inflation report for June. The annual Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) inched up 0.1% in June, while the monthly CPI increased 0.2%.The market sentiment improved following the news that the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are closing in on a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on EU goods imported into the US, per the Financial Times. Additionally, US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday a major tariff deal with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports.Additionally, the USD/CHF pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) possibly receives support from the easing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted late Thursday that a nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair is likely to be announced in December or January. Bessent highlighted that there is “no rush” to choose a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Traders will focus on next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where rates are expected to be kept on hold, with potential cuts anticipated in October.However, the recent comments from US President Donald Trump at an AI summit in Washington on Thursday signaled a shift toward a more aggressive tariff strategy targeting nearly all US trading partners, with exceptions made only for a limited number of nations. Trump established a new baseline for tariffs ahead of the August 1 deadline by indicating that the upcoming tariffs are set to begin at a minimum rate of 15%. Trump also said that “We will have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%.” Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

The Euro is posting moderate gains on Thursday, after bouncing from 0.8640 on Wednesday, but remains trapped within the weekly range, with investors awaiting details of a widely expected trade deal with the US, and the outcome of the European Central Bank’s meeting.News reporting that Eurozone and U

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News reporting that Eurozone and US negotiators might be close to a trade deal has provided some support to the Euro earlier on Thursday. European Commission officials revealed that the agreement would include 15% tariffs on Eurozone imports, with exemptions for automobiles, medical devices, and alcoholic beverages.Eurozone preliminary PMIs for July beat expectationsIn the meantime, data from the Eurozone has been mixed, with Preliminary PMIs showing stronger-than-expected business activity, mainly in the services sector, yet the German GfK Consumer Confidence survey confirms the soft momentum of the bloc’s major economy.In the UK, on the contrary, Preliminary PMI data have disappointed, with the services sector’s growth slowing down against expectations, while manufacturing activity improved but well within contraction levels.
bank’s
The highlight today is the ECB’s monetary policy decision. The bank is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold, but the market will be analysing President Lagarde’s speech for clues about the bank’s near-term policy. Economic Indicator HCOB Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 08:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 49.8 Consensus: 49.8 Previous: 49.5 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator HCOB Services PMI The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among services providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 08:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51.2 Consensus: 50.8 Previous: 50.5 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator S&P Global Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the UK’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 08:30 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 48.2 Consensus: 48 Previous: 47.7 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator S&P Global Services PMI The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the UK’s services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 08:30 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51.2 Consensus: 53 Previous: 52.8 Source: S&P Global

Junko Koeda recently argued for the need to monitor second-round effects from rising rice costs. Another board member, Hajime Takata, said this month the BOJ must resume rate hikes after a temporary pause as Japan was on the cusp of achieving the bank's 2% target.

Junko Koeda recently argued for the need to monitor second-round effects from rising rice costs. Another board member, Hajime Takata, said this month the BOJ must resume rate hikes after a temporary pause as Japan was on the cusp of achieving the bank's 2% target."If upward inflation risks heighten, the BOJ may need to act decisively as a guardian of price stability," its hawkish policymaker Naoki Tamura said late last month.

United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48) in July: Actual (48.2)

United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.2 below forecasts (53) in July

United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI below expectations (51.9) in July: Actual (51)

EUR/JPY loses ground after halting its five-day winning streak, trading around 172.20 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains subdued despite the release of improved HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Eurozone.

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The currency cross remains subdued despite the release of improved HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Eurozone.The preliminary HCOB Composite PMI climbed to 50.0 in July, from the previous 50.6 reading and surpassing the expected 50.8. Meanwhile, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, from 49.5 reported in June, matching the market consensus of 49.8. The Services PMI advanced to 51.2 from 50.5 prior, coming above the expected 50.8 reading.The HCOB Preliminary German Composite Output Index came in at 50.3 in July, against 50.4 in June and 50.7 expected. The index was at its lowest level in two months. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.2 from June’s 49.0, though missing the market forecast of 49.4. The measure hit a 36-month high. Services PMI grew to 50.1 from 49.7 prior, against the expected 50.0 reading.Moreover, Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence Survey fell to -21.5 for August from -20.3 prior reading. The print missed market consensus of -19.2, marking the lowest reading since April. The decline highlighted rising consumer pessimism driven by economic uncertainty, including worries about US tariffs on European goods.The EUR/JPY cross also depreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains ground due to optimism surrounding the new United States (US)-Japan trade deal. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced a major tariff deal with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports. Economic Indicator HCOB Composite PMI The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in the Eurozone for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 08:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51 Consensus: 50.8 Previous: 50.6 Source: S&P Global

The dollar didn’t suffer in the first half of July from trade tensions re-escalating. And it is equally finding no benefit from positive trade deal news.

The dollar didn’t suffer in the first half of July from trade tensions re-escalating. And it is equally finding no benefit from positive trade deal news. As a potential blockbuster deal with the EU may be announced in the coming days after yesterday’s US-Japan agreement, the dollar impact may also prove to be mostly neutral, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Markets still price in 16bp of easing for September"If the greenback is indeed due a short-term recovery (we still think it is), then that will need to be triggered by data rather than tariff news, in line with the recent rise in most USD crosses’ sensitivity to short-term rate differentials.""But this week has been quiet on data, and that has seemingly allowed some rebuilding of USD shorts. Today’s calendar is more crowded, with focus on new home sales (yesterday’s existing home sales came in soft), S&P Global PMIs and above all jobless claims. Initial claims have been on a five-week downward trend and continuing claims have plateaued since mid-June. With only eight days until the US jobs report, another strong print today can drive NFP expectations a bit higher. The whisper number is currently 110k.""Markets still price in 16bp of easing for September, which is the contract where we see the greatest potential for a hawkish repricing driving some dollar recovery."

Amidst all the discussions about potential trade deals with the US (see yesterday's article on Japan and today's article on the EU), one important point has been overlooked. Switzerland has not yet received a letter threatening tariffs from 1 August.

Amidst all the discussions about potential trade deals with the US (see yesterday's article on Japan and today's article on the EU), one important point has been overlooked. Switzerland has not yet received a letter threatening tariffs from 1 August. This is certainly a positive sign for Switzerland. After all, Trump announced that the remaining countries would probably face tariffs of around 15%, and he announced a 31% tariff on Swiss products at the beginning of April. This is also consistent with statements made by Swiss officials a few weeks ago who emphasised that a trade deal with the US was ready for Trump to sign, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Swiss franc is likely to trend sideways"Firstly, it is unclear whether Switzerland will receive a letter at all. The White House spokeswoman recently emphasised that letters could still be sent if the talks fail. Secondly, it is unclear why Trump has not yet signed the deal with Switzerland. It is possible that the focus was initially on Japan, India and the EU, with Switzerland being overlooked. This would be a positive development if it means that Switzerland will receive a lower tariff than was announced at the beginning of April. However, it would be a bad sign if the tariffs were only postponed, with a letter similar to those sent to most other countries ultimately announcing similar tariffs.""Added to this is the threat of tariffs on pharmaceutical products. These account for a large proportion of US imports from Switzerland. Initially, the majority of these were exempt from reciprocal tariffs at the beginning of April due to the extensive list of exemptions in Annex 2 of the Executive Order on reciprocal tariffs. However, this is only a postponement, and Trump has repeatedly emphasised that he intends to impose sectoral tariffs on pharmaceutical products. Most recently, he mentioned a rate of 200%. While the rate is unlikely to remain this high, a sectoral tariff is still likely.""A possible trade deal between Switzerland and the US is likely to include sectoral tariffs on pharmaceutical products. One possibility would be a 15% tariff on all Swiss imports to the US plus a low double-digit tariff on Swiss pharmaceutical products, depending on what Switzerland can offer the US. Compared with the tariffs threatened to date, this would be a positive sign for Switzerland. From this perspective, it is therefore entirely understandable that the Swiss franc has strengthened in recent weeks, in line with our forecast. However, all market participants should be aware that the tariffs will still have a negative impact on the Swiss real economy. We therefore revised our growth forecast downwards last week, partly due to weaker recent figures. Until the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs subsides, the Swiss franc is likely to trend sideways."

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has continued to strengthen overnight, remaining the best performer in G10 since the start of the week, up 1.8% against the US Dollar (USD), ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has continued to strengthen overnight, remaining the best performer in G10 since the start of the week, up 1.8% against the US Dollar (USD), ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.A return to 148.0 remains achievable over the next few day"The US-Japan trade deal is seemingly reinforcing market expectations on a Bank of Japan rate hike by the end of the year, which is now 20bp priced in, up from 16bp earlier this week and a 10bp low earlier in July.""While our BoJ call has been generally more hawkish than pricing, it seems to us markets are underestimating the risks of a new prime minister potentially favouring a more cautious approach to rate hikes.""The yen may have used up its short-term bullish ammunition with the post-election “sell the fact” effect and the US-Japan trade deal, and we expect a rebuilding of USD/JPY longs around current levels ahead of potential political turmoil and lingering debt concerns. A return to 148.0 remains achievable over the next few days."

Following the announcement of the deal with Japan, it seems that negotiations with the EU are also gathering momentum. Yesterday, the US Treasury Secretary stated that the Japan deal was not a blueprint for the EU, as the latter had not yet presented any such 'innovative' ideas.

Following the announcement of the deal with Japan, it seems that negotiations with the EU are also gathering momentum. Yesterday, the US Treasury Secretary stated that the Japan deal was not a blueprint for the EU, as the latter had not yet presented any such 'innovative' ideas. Reports in the days leading up to this announcement were not particularly promising either, emphasising Trump's increasingly hardened stance and the EU's preparations for counter-tariffs, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. ECB meeting is unlikely to be particularly exciting"Reports emerged that the EU and the US were moving closer together, suggesting that a deal on 15% tariffs on most EU exports to the US was possible — close to the lower limit that Trump reiterated last night. The reports suggested that EU countries could accept such a deal, with attempts being made to include important car exports. After all the turmoil of recent months, such a deal would certainly bode well for the euro, which is why we saw EUR/USD move back towards 1.18 yesterday.""Ultimately, Donald Trump must agree to the deal. He may impose the tariffs announced in the letter on 1 August, he may agree to the deal, or he may do something completely different. It should not be forgotten that the EU is one of the US president's favourite bogeymen, and that a deal such as the one currently being discussed would not be too bad for the EU — at least compared to the other scenarios discussed in recent months. Therefore, we could be in for some exciting twists and turns in the coming days until a deal is finally announced.""Amidst the trade talks, the ECB is holding its regular meeting today. However, the meeting is unlikely to be particularly exciting. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, and no new forecasts will be published. Things are likely to become more interesting regarding the September meeting. Our economists continue to assume that the ECB will deliver its final interest rate cut for the time being then, although the market is still undecided on this. Nevertheless, given the ongoing trade negotiations and the fact that the interest rate cut cycle is coming to an end, the ECB President is unlikely to reveal her hand at today's press conference. Therefore, the talks with the US are likely to be more relevant for the euro in the short term."

The ECB announces monetary policy today and is widely expected to keep rates on hold. Trade and the euro’s strength are the two hot topics in Frankfurt today.

The ECB announces monetary policy today and is widely expected to keep rates on hold. Trade and the euro’s strength are the two hot topics in Frankfurt today. A few reports suggest that a US-EU deal is imminent and should follow the Japanese blueprint announced yesterday, so 15% tariffs on EU exports, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Modest downside risks for the euro"If the ECB is feeling confident that a trade deal is coming, the risks of a dovish surprise are indeed lower. However, the currency discussion remains a wildcard that poses downside risks for the euro. A few members have been unusually vocal about the euro’s strength, and there is a chance some FX comments can make their way into today’s communication. After all, the ECB has been focused on the theme of inflation undershooting, and a strong domestic currency does contribute to that. It remains to be seen whether the ECB feels currency remarks might hinder US-EU trade relations, considering Trump’s sensitivity to FX manipulation themes.""In terms of guidance, don’t expect anything new from the ECB, which should limit the market impact of today's meeting. Policymakers have reiterated that monetary policy is in a 'good place' given subdued inflation, but the Governing Council is probably happy with markets pricing in just one cut by year-end.""We think there are still some modest downside risks for the euro today, but if the ECB steers away from commenting on the euro’s strength, keeps guidance unchanged, and markets feel even less chance of a September move, EUR/USD could break above 1.180."

The Eurozone manufacturing sector remained in contraction, while the services sector expanded in July, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Thursday.

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The data came in line with the expected 50.8 reading and hit a six-month high.The HCOB Eurozone PMI Composite arrived at 51 in July versus 50.6 in June and 50.5 estimates.EUR/USD reaction to the Eurozone PMI dataEUR/USD is down 0.08% on the day, ranging at around 1.1765 following the mixed Eurozone PMI data. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (49.8) in July

Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51.2, above forecasts (50.8) in July

Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51, above expectations (50.8) in July

Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above expectations (50.8) in July: Actual (51)

S&P Global will release on Thursday its preliminary July Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for the United States, based on surveys of top private sector executives, to provide an early indication of economic momentum.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The S&P Global flash PMIs for July are seen improving further, suggesting the US economy continued to expand.Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep its interest rates unchanged at the end of the month.EUR/USD manages to regain some pace and flirts with the 1.1700 area.S&P Global will release on Thursday its preliminary July Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for the United States, based on surveys of top private sector executives, to provide an early indication of economic momentum.The report includes three measures: the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI, and the Composite PMI (a weighted combination of the two), each calibrated such that numbers above 50 indicate growth and readings below that threshold indicate contraction. These monthly snapshots, released far ahead of many official figures, analyse everything from production and export patterns to capacity utilisation, employment, and inventory levels, offering some of the earliest signs of the economy's direction.The Composite PMI ticked down marginally to 52.9 in June from 53.0 the previous month. According to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, "The US service sector reported a welcome combination of sustained growth and increased hiring in June but also reported elevated price pressures, all of which could add to pressure on policymakers to remain cautious with regard to any further loosening of monetary policy."What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?Investors anticipate a little increase in July's flash Manufacturing PMI from 52.0 to 52.5, while the Services PMI is projected to rise from 52.9 to 53.0.Although a minor decline may not scare markets, any resilience – or rebound – above the 50-point level might alleviate lingering economic fears, particularly if service sector momentum remains strong.Investors will focus on the PMIs' granular inflation and employment measures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that inflation is projected to accelerate in reaction to US tariffs, causing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a cautious tone. Despite some Fed officials suggesting a quarter-point rate decrease as early as later this month, the market consensus expects the Fed to stay on the sidelines.A significant upside surprise in the services PMI, along with a strong print from the manufacturing gauge, would likely bolster the US Dollar by confirming the idea of a healthy economy, hence supporting the Fed's conservative attitude.In contrast, evidence of easing pricing pressures and weak private sector hiring might reignite prospects for more monetary easing, weighing on the US Dollar.When will the July flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD?The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs report will be released at 13:45 GMT and is expected to show US business activity extending the gain of momentum observed in the last readings.Ahead of the release, Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, warns that the continuation of the ongoing recovery of the EUR/USD pair could see it challenge its yearly peak of 1.1830 (July 1), ahead of the September 2021 high at 1.1909 (September 3), and the critical milestone at 1.2000.Alternatively, Piovano notes that the resurgence of the selling pressure should meet initial support at the monthly floor of 1.1556 (July 17), prior to the interim 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1491, and the weekly base of 1.1445 (June 19).“While above the 200-day SMA at 1.0910, the pair’s bullish stance should remain unchanged,” Piovano adds. GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price. Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 03, 2025 13:45 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 52.9 Consensus: 52.8 Previous: 52.8 Source: S&P Global

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading lower for the second consecutive day on Thursday, as the risk-on mood weighs on demand for the safe-haven precious metals, but the pair has a significant support at the $38.75 area (July 22 lows), which is keeping the bullish structure in place so far.News that the EU is

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News that the EU is closing in on a trade deal with the US, following another deal with Japan and similar agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, has boosted risk appetite, with investors relieved that the worst trade tariffs can be averted.Technical Analysis: Silver’s bullish momentum might be losing steamFrom a technical standpoint, price action remains bullish. The rally, however, may be showing signs of exhaustion after gaining about 10% since late June. The 4-hour RSI is featuring a bearish divergence that is often a sign that a significant correction is ahead.

The mentioned $38.75 area is keeping bears at bay for now, but the pair seems unable to return to Wednesday’s highs. A breach of that level would bring the confluence of the July 18 lows and the reverse trendline at $38.10 to the focus. Below here, a trend shift would be confirmed, and the next target would be the July 15, 16, and 17 lows at $37.55.On the upside, resistance lies at Wednesday’s high, at $39.40. Further up, the next target would be the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the early July rally, at the $40.00 psychological area. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) underperforms its major peers on Thursday ahead of the preliminary United Kingdom (UK) S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be published at 08:30 GMT.

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Additionally, the trend in the export order will be a major concern for investors, given trade uncertainty ahead of the United States’ (US) tariff deadline on August 1.In the North American session, all eyes will be on the flash US S&P Global PMI data for July. The PMI report is expected to show that the overall business activity grew at a faster pace. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.10% 0.12% -0.15% 0.12% -0.18% -0.01% 0.09% EUR -0.10% 0.04% -0.26% 0.04% -0.27% -0.10% -0.00% GBP -0.12% -0.04% -0.28% 0.00% -0.31% -0.13% -0.04% JPY 0.15% 0.26% 0.28% 0.27% -0.05% 0.08% 0.09% CAD -0.12% -0.04% -0.01% -0.27% -0.28% -0.14% -0.06% AUD 0.18% 0.27% 0.31% 0.05% 0.28% 0.17% 0.28% NZD 0.00% 0.10% 0.13% -0.08% 0.14% -0.17% 0.09% CHF -0.09% 0.00% 0.04% -0.09% 0.06% -0.28% -0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling holds onto gains against US DollarThe Pound Sterling trades firmly near the two-week high around 1.3580 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European session at the time of writing. The GBP/USD pair strengthens on continuous US Dollar underperformance, following a decline in demand for safe-haven assets.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades cautiously near a fresh week low of almost three weeks around 97.00.The appeal of riskier assets, such as the Pound Sterling, improves on hopes that the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) will finalize a trade agreement ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline. An EU-US deal confirmation would diminish fears of damage to the global trade flow.Investors turn increasingly confident on US-EU trade agreement after a report from the Financial Times (FT) mentioned on Wednesday that economies on both sides of the Atlantic could finalize a pact, which would be similar to the tariff deal that took place between the US and Japan that announced on Tuesday. This means that Washington has offered a reduction in the baseline tariff and automobile levy to 15%.The FT report also signaled that EU officials are in a hurry to close a deal to avert a damaging trade war. Given that Japan and the EU exports a significant number of automobiles to the US, lower tariffs on cars from Tokyo would have increased competitiveness of Japanese automakers.On the domestic front, the next major trigger for the US Dollar will be the monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will keenly watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary on the monetary policy guidance amidst fears that tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump could accelerate inflationary pressures.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling returns above 20-day EMAThe Pound Sterling holds onto gains near 1.3580 against the US Dollar on Thursday, the highest level seen in two weeks. The near-term trend of the GBP/USD pair has turned bullish as it has returned above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3526.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns above 50.00, suggesting a strong buying interest at lower levels.Looking down, the May 12 low of 1.3140 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the July 1 high around 1.3790 will act as a key barrier.  Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The GBP/JPY pair trades 0.3% down to near 198.30 during the European trading session on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/JPY falls sharply to near 198.30 as the Japanese Yen gains on expectations that the BoJ could raise interest rates again this year.US-Japan trade deal confirmation renews hopes of BoJ tightening the monetary policy again.Investors await the flash UK PMI data for July.The GBP/JPY pair trades 0.3% down to near 198.30 during the European trading session on Thursday. The cross faces selling pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms on hopes that the confirmation of a trade agreement between the United States (US) and Japan would pave the way for more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) this year.On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump confirmed through a post on Truth.Social that Washington and Tokyo have reached a trade pact. Trump added that Washington will charge 15% on imports of Tokyo that doesn’t come under the sectoral levy universe. Washington also reduced the automobile levy to 15% from 15% as imposed on other nations.According to the latest Reuters poll on BoJ’s monetary policy outlook, a slight majority expects that the Japanese central bank will raise interest rates to 0.75% in the last quarter of the year, which currently stands at 0.5%. The poll also showed that majority of economists expect the BoJ to leave interest rates unchanged in policy meetings next week.Meanwhile, political uncertainty in Japan has also eased as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has denied reports stating that he will resign by the end of August. On Wednesday, a report showed that PM Ishiba will step down by the August-end.In the United Kingdom (UK), investors await the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be published at 08:30 GMT. The PMI report is expected to show that the overall private sector activity continued to expand. However, the pace of expansion was slightly moderate.  Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground after registering losses in the previous four successive days and trading around 97.20 during European hours on Thursday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}US Dollar Index maintains its position as traders adopt caution ahead of PMI data due on Thursday.The Greenback could receive support from easing concerns on Fed’s independence following recent comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent.President Trump stated that the US will implement a straightforward, simple tariff ranging from 15% to 50%.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground after registering losses in the previous four successive days and trading around 97.20 during European hours on Thursday. Investors are likely awaiting the S&P US Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July later in the day.The Greenback could have drawn support from easing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Thursday that a nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair is likely to be announced in December or January. Bessent emphasized that there is “no rush” to select a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Markets are focused on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where rates are expected to be kept on hold, with potential cuts anticipated in October.US President Donald Trump spoke at an AI summit in Washington on Thursday, signalling that the upcoming tariffs are set to begin at a minimum rate of 15%, establishing a new baseline for levies ahead of the August 1 deadline. Trump added, “We will have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%.” The remarks signal a shift toward a more aggressive tariff strategy targeting nearly all US trading partners, with exceptions made only for a limited number of countries with existing trade agreements.The European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are closing in on a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on EU goods imported into the US, reported by the Financial Times on Wednesday. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced a major tariff deal with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports.However, traders are likely to keep their eyes on prevailing threats of 15% to 50% tariffs on countries such as South Korea and India, which are still negotiating deals. Traders also await clarity on talks with China, with Treasury Secretary Bessent scheduled to meet Chinese officials in the week ahead. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.05% 0.14% -0.15% 0.09% -0.16% -0.00% 0.05% EUR -0.05% 0.10% -0.19% 0.06% -0.21% -0.08% 0.00% GBP -0.14% -0.10% -0.30% -0.04% -0.31% -0.17% -0.10% JPY 0.15% 0.19% 0.30% 0.22% -0.03% 0.05% 0.05% CAD -0.09% -0.06% 0.04% -0.22% -0.23% -0.16% -0.06% AUD 0.16% 0.21% 0.31% 0.03% 0.23% 0.13% 0.21% NZD 0.00% 0.08% 0.17% -0.05% 0.16% -0.13% 0.07% CHF -0.05% 0.00% 0.10% -0.05% 0.06% -0.21% -0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The German manufacturing sector contraction eased in July while the services sector returned to expansion, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed on Thursday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Germany’s Manufacturing PMI advanced to 49.2 in July vs. 49.4 anticipated.Services PMI for the German economy climbed to 50.1 in July vs. 50 forecast.EUR/USD keeps the red near 1.1770 after mixed German PMIs.The German manufacturing sector contraction eased in July while the services sector returned to expansion, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed on Thursday.The HCOB Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse rose to 49.2 in July, as against June’s 49, missing the market forecast of 49.4. The measure hit a 36-month high.Meanwhile, Services PMI advanced to 50.1 in July from 49.7 in June. The market expectations were for 50 in the reported period. The gauge reached a four-month top.The HCOB Preliminary German Composite Output Index came in at 50.3 in July vs. 50.4 in June and 50.7 expected. The index was at its lowest level in two months.FX implicationsEUR/USD remains in the red after the mixed German data, down 0.08% on the day at 1.1765 at the time of writing. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% 0.13% -0.13% 0.08% -0.18% -0.04% 0.03% EUR -0.04% 0.10% -0.19% 0.07% -0.21% -0.07% -0.00% GBP -0.13% -0.10% -0.30% -0.04% -0.32% -0.21% -0.10% JPY 0.13% 0.19% 0.30% 0.22% -0.04% 0.05% 0.05% CAD -0.08% -0.07% 0.04% -0.22% -0.24% -0.14% -0.06% AUD 0.18% 0.21% 0.32% 0.04% 0.24% 0.14% 0.22% NZD 0.04% 0.07% 0.21% -0.05% 0.14% -0.14% 0.08% CHF -0.03% 0.00% 0.10% -0.05% 0.06% -0.22% -0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50.3 below forecasts (50.7) in July

Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (49.4) in July: Actual (49.2)

Germany HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (50) in July: Actual (50.1)

France HCOB Manufacturing PMI in line with expectations (48.4) in July

France HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.7 above expectations (49.6) in July

France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 49.6 above expectations (49.3) in July

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.75 during the early European trading hours on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price drifts higher to near $65.75 in Thursday’s early European session. US trade talk progress boosts the market sentiment, underpining the WTI price. Crude inventories in the United States fell by 3.169 million barrels last week, noted EIA. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.75 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The WTI climbs on optimism surrounding a new US trade deal that would ease pressure on the global economy and a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories.A new US trade deal and prospects of additional agreements could improve the global economic outlook and lift the WTI price. US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a “massive” deal with Japan that includes “reciprocal” tariffs of 15% on the country’s exports to the US. This tariff rate is notably lower than the 25% previously threatened by Trump. Additionally, broader risk sentiment also improved amid reports of progress in US-EU trade talks.About the data, US crude oil inventories fell last week, contributing to the WTI’s upside. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly crude oil stock report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending July 18 declined by 3.169 million barrels, compared to a fall of 3.859 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 1.4 million barrels. Oil traders will closely monitor a meeting between the EU and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, their first in-person summit since 2023. Furthermore, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he will meet with Chinese officials in Stockholm next week to discuss extending the trade truce. Any signs of renewed tensions could spark fresh concern over global fuel demand and weigh on the black gold.  WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

NZD/USD extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around 0.6050 during the early European hours on Thursday.

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The upside of the pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) attempts to recover losses ahead of the S&P US Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July later on the day.However, the Greenback may further lose ground amid risk-on sentiment, driven by the optimism over further trade deals between the United States (US) and key partners. The Financial Times reported that the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are closing in on a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on EU goods imported into the US. Additionally, US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday a major tariff deal with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports.Traders are also seeking clarity on talks with China, with Treasury Secretary Bessent scheduled to meet Chinese officials later in the week. On the monetary policy front, markets are focused on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where rates are expected to be kept on hold, with potential cuts anticipated in October.Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway noted on Thursday that tariffs will mean a weaker global economy and weaker demand, and the country will constantly monitor data. Conway also highlighted that the central bank is prepared to cut interest rates further if price pressures continue to ease as anticipated. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

Spain Unemployment Survey below forecasts (10.7%) in 2Q: Actual (10.29%)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is on track to leave its key interest rates unchanged after its July policy meeting, after having reduced rates at each of its last seven meetings. The decision will be announced on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The European Central Bank is expected to hold key rates for the first time in over a year on Thursday.The Eurozone inflation rate has hit the ECB’s 2% target as the US-EU trade deal uncertainty lingers.The EUR/USD pair could experience intense volatility following the ECB policy announcements.The European Central Bank (ECB) is on track to leave its key interest rates unchanged after its July policy meeting, after having reduced rates at each of its last seven meetings. The decision will be announced on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.The interest rate decision will be followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference at 12:45 GMT.The ECB policy announcements will likely have a significant impact on the EUR/USD performance, as the Euro (EUR) is expected to experience intense volatility following the decision and during President Lagarde’s press conference.What to expect from the ECB interest rate decision?With a no-rate-change decision widely priced in, the focus will be on the ECB’s policy statement for any hints on whether the central bank will resume its interest rate-cutting cycle later this year amid uncertainty over the potential impact of higher United States (US) tariffs on the Eurozone economy and a stronger Euro.The primary reason behind the ECB’s likely pause is the bloc’s inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), returning to the bank’s target of 2% in June.Though the closely watched services inflation edged up slightly to 3.3% in June, after cooling in May to 3.2%, the gauge was still down from a 4% reading in April.Additionally, mounting tensions over the likelihood of a trade agreement between the US and the European Union (EU) by the August 1 deadline could persuade the ECB to remain in a wait-and-see mode on Thursday.Citing some officials from the European Commission, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday that the EU and US are closing in on a trade deal that would impose 15% tariffs on European imports, while waiving duties on some items.The central bank will look to seek more clarity on the trade scenario before considering any changes to its interest rate trajectory.Another factor that the ECB could consider when determining its path forward on interest rates is the appreciation of the EUR so far this year, which has been helped by a sustained downtrend in the US Dollar (USD).US President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies and repeated attacks on the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence have been the key catalysts behind the USD downtrend.The narrative that a stronger EUR could bring down imported inflation, in turn, raising the odds of inflation undershooting the ECB's target, could lead the bank to resume rate cuts later in the year.Therefore, prudence on the rate cut path seems like the optimal decision for the central bank in July, with markets seeing a rate cut at the September meeting.How could the ECB meeting impact EUR/USD?Heading into the ECB showdown, the EUR/USD pair is building on its recovery from three-week troughs of 1.1556. Will the turnaround sustain?If the ECB Monetary Policy Statement or President Lagarde hints that the disinflationary trend remains intact, despite the tariff impact, it could revive expectations of rate cuts by the year-end. In this scenario, EUR/USD could resume its correction from multi-year highs.On the other hand, EUR/USD could recover further ground if the ECB acknowledges potential upside risks to inflation and Lagarde sticks to the bank’s ‘data-dependent’ approach to assess the tariff impact.Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:“EUR/USD recaptured the critical 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1709 on Tuesday, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator holds firm near 63, signalling mild bullish momentum and suggesting that more upside remains in the offing for the main currency pair.”“On the upside, the immediate resistance aligns at the multi-year highs of 1.1830 set in early July, above which the 1.1900 round level could be tested. The June 25, 2021, high of 1.1975 will be next on buyers’ radars. Conversely, the weekly low of 1.1615 will offer initial support, below which the 50-day SMA at 1.1535 will come into play. The line in the sand for EUR/USD buyers is located at the 1.1500 mark,” Dhwani added. Related news July ECB cheat sheet: Currency heatwave US–EU close to tariff deal mirroring Japan pact – Financial Times EUR/USD extends the rally above 1.1750 ahead of ECB rate decision Economic Indicator ECB Rate On Deposit Facility One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 12:15 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2% Previous: 2% Source: European Central Bank

France Business Climate in Manufacturing in line with expectations (96) in July

France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 96.5 above expectations (96) in July

Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Thursday that the trade deal between Japan and the United States (US) is in line with the country's interests. Akazawa added that he had no discussion with US officials about how to implement the deal yet

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Had no discussion with US officials about how to implement the deal yet.

Japan always focused on investment in US trade talks.

We have built mutual understanding, trust relationship with US over trade deal. 

Ishiba to decide on possible US visit by himself.

We want US to avoid temporary spike in tariffs on August 1. 

I am not thinking about signing a legally binding agreement at this moment.Market reaction At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.23% lower on the day to trade at 146.20. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

The EUR/GBP cross trades in positive territory near 0.8670 during the early European session on Thursday, bolstered by optimism surrounding the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) trade deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision will take center stage later on Thursday. 

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The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision will take center stage later on Thursday. The Financial Times reported late Wednesday that the EU and US are closing in on a trade deal that would impose 15% tariffs on EU imports. The bloc could agree to the so-called reciprocal levies to avoid US President Donald Trump’s threat to raise them to 30% from August 1. Hope for the EU-US trade agreement provides some support to the Euro (EUR) against the Pound Sterling (GBP). The ECB is set to keep interest rates on hold at its July meeting on Thursday, pausing after seven consecutive cuts amid the uncertainty from US tariffs. "The ECB is widely expected to keep policy on hold this week, as uncertainty prevails with no trade deal yet on the horizon between the U.S. and EU," said Christophe Boucher, chief investment officer at ABN AMRO Investment Solutions. Analysts expect one more ECB rate cut by the end of the year, most likely in December, according to Reuters. On the GBP’s front, traders are increasingly confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates at its August monetary policy meeting. This, in turn, could drag the GBP lower against the EUR. Meanwhile, traders will keep an eye on the release of preliminary UK S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data of July on Thursday. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could help limit the GBP’s losses in the near term.  ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $65.24 per barrel, down from Wednesday’s close at $65.28.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $68.02 after its previous daily close at $68.06.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $65.24 per barrel, down from Wednesday’s close at $65.28.
Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $68.02 after its previous daily close at $68.06. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 24:Financial markets will take a break from trade-related headlines on Thursday and pay close attention to the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy announcements. Additionally, the economic calendar will feature preliminary July Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.19% -1.13% -1.27% -0.83% -1.54% -1.35% -1.10% EUR 1.19% 0.14% -0.05% 0.34% -0.40% -0.35% 0.05% GBP 1.13% -0.14% -0.40% 0.25% -0.50% -0.26% 0.11% JPY 1.27% 0.05% 0.40% 0.46% -0.23% -0.13% 0.35% CAD 0.83% -0.34% -0.25% -0.46% -0.65% -0.52% -0.31% AUD 1.54% 0.40% 0.50% 0.23% 0.65% 0.13% 0.59% NZD 1.35% 0.35% 0.26% 0.13% 0.52% -0.13% 0.38% CHF 1.10% -0.05% -0.11% -0.35% 0.31% -0.59% -0.38% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). As markets cheered the news of the US-Japan trade deal, risk flows dominated the market action on Wednesday. Wall Street's main indexes registered strong daily gains and the US Dollar (USD) Index closed in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day. Early Thursday, US stock index futures trade mixed and the USD Index holds steady above 97.00. The White House said late Wednesday that US President Donald Trump will visit the Federal Reserve on Thursday.During the Asian trading hours, the data from Australia showed that the S&P Global Composite PMI improved to 53.6 in July from 51.6 in June, reflecting an ongoing expansion in the private sector's business activity at an accelerating pace. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock reiterated that a measured and a gradual approach to monetary easing is appropriate. After rising more than 0.7% on Wednesday, AUD/USD preserves its bullish momentum early Thursday and trades at its highest level since November above 0.6600.Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in Japan declined to 48.8 in July and came in below the market expectation of 50.2. On a positive note, Jibun Bank Services PMI rose to 53.5 from 51.7 in this period. USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure and trades near 146.00 in the European morning, losing more than 0.3% on the day.The ECB is widely anticipated to leave key rates unchanged after the July meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on the policy outlook in a pres conference starting at 12:45 GMT. EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.1750 after registering moderate gains on Wednesday. Related news Lagarde could strike more dovish tone in ECB meeting tomorrow ECB bank lending survey shows no material impact of higher uncertainty EUR steady ahead of ECB and PMI’s – Scotiabank GBP/USD holds steady above 1.3550 after closing the previous three days decisively higher.USD/CAD fluctuates in a tight channel at around 1.3600 in the European session on Thursday and loses about 1% on a weekly basis. Later in the day, Statistics Canada will release Retail Sales data for May.Gold struggled to find demand and staged a deep correction on Wednesday as risk flows dominated the markets. XAU/USD continues to stretch lower after losing more than 1% on Wednesday and trades below $3,380. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey came in at -21.5 below forecasts (-19.2) in August

Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Thursday that the current challenges facing the European Union (EU) do not come from China, adding that he hopes that the bloc will keep trade and investment markets open, according to Xinhua.

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We need to properly handle differences and frictions.

Hopes that EU will keep trade and investment markets open.

China, EU have no fundamental conflicts of interest.

Calls on EU to provide a favourable business environment for Chinese enterprises.

Hopes that EU will respect China's core interests and major concerns.Market reactionAt the press time, the AUD/USD pair was up 0.33% on the day to trade at 0.6624. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

The USD/CAD pair clings to losses near an almost three-week low around 1.3600 during the Asian trading session on Thursday.

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The Loonie pair faces selling pressure as the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar (USD) has diminished amid hopes that the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) will strike a trade agreement ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, seems vulnerable near the two-week low around 97.00.Investors turn increasingly confident that economies on both sides of the Atlantic could finalize an agreement, which would be similar to the tariff deal took place between US and Japan on Tuesday. This means that Washington has offered a reduction in the baseline tariff and automobile levy to 15%.Meanwhile, investors await the flash US S&P Global PMI data for July, which will be published at 13:45 GMT.In Canada, investors will focus on the monthly Retail Sales data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The Retail Sales data is expected to have declined by 1.1% after a nominal growth of 0.3% in April.USD/CAD exhibits volatility contraction around 1.3600, oscillating inside Wednesday’s trading range. The near-term trend of the pair remains bearish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes downwards to near 1.3666.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A fresh downside momentum would trigger if the RSI falls below that level.The asset could slide towards the psychological level of 1.3500 and the September 25 low of 1.3420 if it breaks below the June 16 low of 1.3540.On the contrary, an upside move by the pair above the May 29 high of 1.3820 would open the door towards the May 21 high of 1.3920, followed by the May 15 high of 1.4000.USD/CAD daily chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a positive note against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after a five-day losing streak.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee opens positively against the US Dollar amid upbeat market mood.Hopes of a US-EU trade agreement have lifted market sentiment.Investors await the preliminary India-US PMI data for July.The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a positive note against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after a five-day losing streak. The USD/INR pair slides to near 86.45 as the market sentiment turns upbeat, following hopes that the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) are close to reaching a trade agreement ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.A report from Financial Times (FT) showed on Wednesday that Washington and Brussels will strike an agreement, which will include 15% tariffs on imports from the European Union (EU). The report also showed that the shared continent accepted a higher baseline tariff rate to avert a damaging trade war, according to an EU official, following the announcement of the US-Japan trade agreement on Tuesday in which Washington slashed the baseline and automobile levy to 15% from 25%.A few weeks back, US President Donald Trump sent a letter to the European Commission (EC), dictating a 30% tariff rate, for failing to reach a trade pact during the 90-day pause period.The closure of trade pacts by the US with its key trading partners has diminished upside risks to global trade. This has led to a decline in demand for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar has also extended its downside on hopes of the US-EU trade deal. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto losses near a fresh over two-week low around 97.15 posted on Wednesday.Daily digest market movers: Investors await flash India-US PMI data for JulyA positive opening by the Indian Rupee on Thursday is purely driven by upbeat market sentiment. However, it is doubtful whether the Indian currency will hold the recovery as Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to pare their stake in equity markets.Indian bourses saw an outflow of Rs. 4,209.11 crores worth of foreign investment on Wednesday, while indices extended their recovery move seen initially on Monday. So far, FIIs have sold Rs. 26,395.01 crores worth of equities in July.Meanwhile, investors await preliminary India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be published at 05:00 GMT. The PMI data will show whether the overall business activity was impacted by global trade uncertainty, which is driven by the US tariff policy.On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monthly bulletin report for June showed that the overall business activity remained resilient due to a strong momentum in the services sector and summer-sown crops. However, the growth in industrial activity remained modest. Meanwhile, the Indian central bank has advised caution in financial market sentiment due to uncertainty in India-US trade agreement and mixed corporate earnings in the first quarter of the year.In Thursday’s session, the flash US S&P Global PMI data for July will also remain on investors’ radar, which will be published at 13:45 GMT. The US PMI report is expected to show that overall business activity grew at a faster pace, driven by expansion in both manufacturing and the services sector.Technical Analysis: USD/INR retraces to near 86.40USD/INR corrects to near 86.40 at open on Thursday after refreshing the monthly high around 86.65 the previous day. The near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 86.15.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to break above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI breaks above that level.Looking down, the 50-day EMA near 85.85 will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the June 23 high near 87.00 will be a critical hurdle for the pair.  Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

The EUR/USD pair extends its upside to around 1.1775 during the early European session on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) amid hope for the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) trade deal.

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The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) amid hope for the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) trade deal. All eyes will be on the European Central Bank (ECB) later on Thursday, with no change in rate expected. The EU and the US are moving toward a trade agreement that could include a 15% US baseline tariff on EU goods and possible exemptions. Optimism surrounding the trade deal provides some support to the shared currency. European trade negotiators were trying to negotiate a deal to avoid the 30% tariff rate that Trump has announced he would slap on imports from the EU on August 1.Nonetheless, the bloc plans 93 billion euros in counter-tariffs if no deal is reached, which might escalate trade tensions. Any signs of negative developments surrounding US-EU trade talks could exert some selling pressure on the EUR against the USD. The ECB is expected to leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% at its July meeting on Thursday as policymakers await clarity on what US President Donald Trump’s tariffs will do to inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to keep all options on the table during the press conference. Any hawkish comments from ECB policymakers could underpin the EUR in the near term. Later on Thursday, the preliminary reading of US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July will be in the spotlight. Also, the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index will be released later on the same day.  Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

FX option expiries for Jul 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jul 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1550 1.3b1.1620 1.5b1.1625 2.7b1.1630 1.7b1.1650 1.1b1.1665 1.2b1.1700 3.4b1.1760 1.2b1.1800 1.4b1.1950 1bUSD/JPY: USD amounts                                 145.20 890m145.50 948m147.00 1.4b147.50 2.2bUSD/CHF: USD amounts     0.7925 550m0.8025 617mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6500 512m0.6600 1b0.6650 517mUSD/CAD: USD amounts       1.3785 676mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.6010 599m0.6050 636mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts        0.8700 552m

India HSBC Composite PMI: 60.7 (July) vs previous 61

India HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 59.2 (July) vs 58.4

India HSBC Services PMI: 59.8 (July) vs previous 60.4

The USD/CHF pair enters a bearish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Thursday and oscillates in a range around the 0.7920 area, close to a three-week low touched the previous day.

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Investors seem uncertain about the likely timing and pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Moreover, fears that the central bank's independence could be under threat from mounting political interference keep the USD bulls on the defensive.In fact, US President Donald Trump has been personally attacking Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering borrowing costs. Trump has also repeatedly called for the central bank chief's resignation. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the new Fed Chair nominee is likely to be announced in December or January. This adds a layer of uncertainty and fails to assist the USD to register any meaningful recovery, in turn, weighing on the USD/CHF pair. That said, the latest trade optimism remains supportive of a positive risk tone and holds back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF). Trump announced late Tuesday that his administration had reached a trade deal with Japan, while reports suggest that the US and the European Union are heading towards a 15% trade deal. This is seen as a key factor that helps limit the downside for the USD/CHF pair, at least for now.Traders now look forward to the release of flash PMIs, which should provide a fresh insight into the global economic health and drive the broader risk sentiment. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision could infuse volatility in the markets and influence safe-haven assets. Apart from this, the US Weekly Jobless Claims and New Home Sales data might contribute to producing trading opportunities around the USD/CHF pair later this Thursday. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

GBP/USD remains steady after four days of gains, trading around 1.3580 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

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The pair maintains its position near two-week highs as the US Dollar (USD) continues to weaken amid risk-on sentiment, driven by the optimism over further trade deals between the United States (US) and key partners.The Financial Times reported that the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are closing in on a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on EU goods imported into the US. Additionally, US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday a major tariff deal with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports.However, the downside of the US Dollar could be restrained amid easing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Thursday that a nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair is likely to be announced in December or January. Bessent emphasized that there is “no rush” to select a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.In the United Kingdom (UK), traders will likely observe S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, due on Thursday. The report is expected to show a slight improvement in manufacturing and growth in the service sector in July. Friday’s Retail Sales are also projected to rebound in June, helped by hot weather.The Bank of England (BoE) is anticipated to temporarily pause its sales of long-term GILTS due to subdued demand from traditional buyers like pension funds. Meanwhile, traders have slightly reduced their expectations for BoE policy easing, though they still project two rate cuts in 2025. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,388.78 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 9,396.91 it cost on Wednesday. The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 109,507.50 per tola from INR 109,603.80 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,388.78 10 Grams 93,886.73 Tola 109,507.50 Troy Ounce 292,024.10   2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by receding safe-haven demand on trade optimism US President Donald Trump announced late Tuesday that his administration had reached a trade deal with Japan. Furthermore, reports that the US and the European Union are heading towards a 15% trade deal boost investors' confidence and weigh on the safe-haven Gold price for the second straight day on Thursday. The markets do not expect an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve in July despite Trump's continuous push for lower borrowing costs. In fact, Trump has been attacking Fed Chair Jerome Powell personally over his stance on holding rates and repeatedly calling for the central bank chief's resignation. Moreover, Fed Governor Chris Waller and Trump appointee Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman have advocated a rate reduction as soon as the next policy meeting on July 30. This keeps the US Dollar depressed near a two-and-a-half-week low and could offer some support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders now look forward to the release of flash PMIs, which would provide a fresh insight into the global economic health and influence the safe-haven commodity. Apart from this, the crucial European Central Bank policy decision might infuse some volatility in the markets and drive the XAU/USD pair. Meanwhile, the US economic docket features Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and New Home Sales data, which, in turn, would drive the USD and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the commodity. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop warrants caution for aggressive traders. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The AUD/JPY cross declines to near 96.60 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains weak against the Japanese Yen (JPY) despite the hawkish remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers. 

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains weak against the Japanese Yen (JPY) despite the hawkish remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said on Thursday that the central bank is wary of cutting interest rates until it has gathered more evidence that inflation remains on a path back towards the 2.5% target. Bullock further stated that labor demand remains strong while core inflation is easing gradually. Her hawkish comments, however, fail to boost the Aussie as traders continue to assess the developments surrounding a new US trade deal. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that he will meet with Chinese officials in Stockholm next week to discuss an extension to the deadline for negotiating a trade deal. Investors remain cautious on how tariff deals will play out.Optimism surrounding the fresh US-Japan trade agreement provides some support to the Japanese Yen and acts as a headwind for the cross. US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a “massive” deal with Japan that includes “reciprocal” tariffs of 15% on the country’s exports to the US. The new agreement is notably lower than the 25% previously threatened by Trump.On the other hand, rising political uncertainty in Japan might exert some selling pressure on the JPY. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru  Ishiba on Wednesday denied plans to resign. The speculation came after the ruling coalition’s loss of its upper house majority in weekend elections, heightening fears about leadership stability. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains on the defensive during the Asian session on Thursday and looks to extend the previous day's sharp retracement slide from its highest level since June 16.

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Reports that the US and the European Union (EU) are closing in on a tariff deal add to the optimism led by the US-Japan trade agreement. This remains supportive of the upbeat market mood and turns out to be a key factor undermining demand for the safe-haven bullion. However, a combination of factors could act as a tailwind for the Gold price and limit deeper losses. Investors remain uncertain about the likely timing and the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Adding to this, fears that the central bank's independence could be under threat from mounting political interference keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed near a two-week low and could offer support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by receding safe-haven demand on trade optimismUS President Donald Trump announced late Tuesday that his administration had reached a trade deal with Japan. Furthermore, reports that the US and the European Union are heading towards a 15% trade deal boost investors' confidence and weigh on the safe-haven Gold price for the second straight day on Thursday. The markets do not expect an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve in July despite Trump's continuous push for lower borrowing costs. In fact, Trump has been attacking Fed Chair Jerome Powell personally over his stance on holding rates and repeatedly calling for the central bank chief's resignation. Moreover, Fed Governor Chris Waller and Trump appointee Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman have advocated a rate reduction as soon as the next policy meeting on July 30. This keeps the US Dollar depressed near a two-and-a-half-week low and could offer some support to the non-yielding yellow metal.Traders now look forward to the release of flash PMIs, which would provide a fresh insight into the global economic health and influence the safe-haven commodity. Apart from this, the crucial European Central Bank policy decision might infuse some volatility in the markets and drive the XAU/USD pair. Meanwhile, the US economic docket features Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and New Home Sales data, which, in turn, would drive the USD and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the commodity. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop warrants caution for aggressive traders. Gold price bulls have the upper hand amid the formation of a short-term ascending trend-channelFrom a technical perspective, the recent move up along an upward sloping channel since the beginning of this month points to a well-established short-term uptrend. Adding to this, positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that the Gold price is more likely to find decent support near the $3,370-3,368 strong horizontal resistance breakpoint. A convincing break below the said area, however, could expose the lower end of the trend-channel, currently pegged near the $3,333-3,332 region. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of the XAU/USD bears.On the flip side, momentum back above the $3,400 mark could pause near the $3,438-3,440 static barrier. This coincides with the trend-channel resistance, above which the Gold price could accelerate the positive move towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

EUR/JPY breaks its five-day winning streak, trading around 171.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The bullish bias is strengthening as the technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/JPY may test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 172.15.The 14-day RSI remains above 50, indicating a persistent bullish bias.The initial support appears at the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 170.50.EUR/JPY breaks its five-day winning streak, trading around 171.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The bullish bias is strengthening as the technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, strengthening bullish bias. However, the short-term price momentum is weaker as the EUR/JPY cross has moved below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).On the upside, the immediate barrier appears at the nine-day EMA of 172.15, followed by the fresh yearly high of 173.25, reached on July 16. A break above this level could strengthen the bullish bias and support the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 176.10.The EUR/JPY cross may approach the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 170.50. A break below the channel could weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the currency cross to test the 50-day EMA at 168.50, aligned with monthly low at 168.46.EUR/JPY: Daily Chart Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.06% 0.00% -0.32% 0.06% -0.23% -0.10% -0.06% EUR 0.06% 0.06% -0.26% 0.14% -0.16% -0.05% 0.00% GBP -0.00% -0.06% -0.34% 0.06% -0.23% -0.11% -0.06% JPY 0.32% 0.26% 0.34% 0.39% 0.09% 0.17% 0.14% CAD -0.06% -0.14% -0.06% -0.39% -0.26% -0.17% -0.12% AUD 0.23% 0.16% 0.23% -0.09% 0.26% 0.12% 0.17% NZD 0.10% 0.05% 0.11% -0.17% 0.17% -0.12% 0.05% CHF 0.06% -0.00% 0.06% -0.14% 0.12% -0.17% -0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said on Thursday that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is preserving its independence in challenging times. Bullock added that monthly job numbers pop up and down, and the board would have made the same rate decision.

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Monthly job numbers pop up and down, board would have made same rate decision.

Don't think digital money is inherently inflationary.

New complete monthly CPI will still be transitional for a while.

New CPI will be much more helpful in judging inflation momentum.Market reactionAt the press time, the AUD/USD pair was up 0.23% on the day to trade at 0.6617. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is speaking at the Anika Foundation in Sydney on Thursday, with audience questions expected.

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Labor market has eased only gradually, unemployment rate relatively low.

Rise in unemployment in June was in line with our forecasts, not a "shock".

June data suggests labor market moved a little further towards balance.

Leading indicators not pointing to further significant near-term rise in unemployment.

Other labour market measures, such as vacancy rate, have been stable.

Labour market rebalancing through vacancies, hours worked, voluntary job switching.

RBA not targeting a specific unemployment rate or job losses.

Q2 core inflation may not have slowed as much as first expected.

Need data to support forecast of core inflation slowing toward 2.5%.

Want to make sure that inflation remains low and stable from here on in.

Still uncertainty and unpredictability in global economy.

Likelihood of a severe downside ‘trade war’ appears to have diminished.Market reactionAUD/USD flirts with eight-month highs near 0.6620 following Governor Bullock’s cautious remarks, adding 0.26% on the day as of writing. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $39.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. The price of Silver struggles due to weakened safe-haven demand, driven by the optimism over further trade deals between the US and key partners.

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The price of Silver struggles due to weakened safe-haven demand, driven by the optimism over further trade deals between the US and key partners.The Financial Times reported that the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are closing in on a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on EU goods imported into the US. Additionally, US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday a major tariff deal with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports.However, some caution remained amid ongoing threats of 15% to 50% tariffs on countries such as South Korea and India, which are still negotiating deals. Traders also await clarity on talks with China, with Treasury Secretary Bessent scheduled to meet Chinese officials in the week ahead. On the monetary policy front, markets are focused on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where rates are expected to be kept on hold, with potential cuts anticipated in October.However, the safe-haven demand for Silver could also be dampened due to easing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Thursday that a nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair is likely to be announced in December or January. Bessent emphasized that there is “no rush” to select a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against its American counterpart for the fourth consecutive day and advances to a nearly three-week peak during the Asian session on Thursday.

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against its American counterpart for the fourth consecutive day and advances to a nearly three-week peak during the Asian session on Thursday. The recently announced Japan-US trade deal reduces economic uncertainty and raises the likelihood that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will resume its tightening cycle later this year, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor that continues to underpin the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, languishes near a two-and-a-half-week low and exerts additional pressure on the USD/JPY pair. However, the domestic political uncertainty and the disappointing release of the flash Japan Manufacturing PMI might hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Furthermore, the upbeat market mood should contribute to capping gains for the safe-haven JPY and limiting further losses for the USD/JPY pair. Traders now look forward to the flash US PMIs to grab short-term opportunities later during the North American session. Nevertheless, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before placing aggressive directional bets. Japanese Yen bulls retain control as US-Japan deal eases uncertainty, revives BoJ hike betsJapan's trade deal with the US has removed a key downside risk for the domestic economy, suggesting that conditions for the Bank of Japan to hike interest rates further may start to fall in place. In fact, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated on Wednesday the central bank's course of action to continue raising interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts. Moreover, a Reuters poll showed that a majority of economists expect the BoJ to hike its key interest rate again by the year-end, though most expect the central bank could wait for some time and would stand pat at this month's meeting. Nevertheless, reviving BoJ rate hike bets continues to underpin the Japanese Yen and drags the USD/JPY pair below the 146.00 mark on Thursday. Meanwhile, Japan's ruling coalition – the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito – suffered a defeat in the upper house elections last weekend. This adds a layer of uncertainty and fuels concerns about Japan's fiscal health. Adding to this, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday that Japan’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly slipped into contraction during July.In fact, the S&P Global Japan manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 48.8 from June’s final reading of 50.1 as businesses assessed the impact of US tariffs. This, to a larger extent, overshadows the upbeat gauge for the services sector, which increases to 53.5 in July from 51.7 in the previous month. Apart from this, the upbeat market mood could cap the safe-haven JPY. The US Dollar struggles to attract any buyers amid fears that the Federal Reserve's independence could be under threat from mounting political interference. US President Donald Trump has been personally attacking Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the new Fed Chair nominee is likely to be announced in December or January.Thursday's US economic docket – featuring the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the flash PMIs, and New Home Sales – might influence the USD price dynamics later during the North American session. Furthermore, the European Central Bank decision could infuse some volatility in the markets, which would drive the safe-haven demand and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY could accelerate the decline once 145.75 support is brokenFrom a technical perspective, an intraday breakdown below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 146.00 mark could be seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bears. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and back the case for a further depreciating move. Some follow-through selling below the 145.75 area (July 10 low) will reaffirm the outlook and drag spot prices to the 145.20-145.15 region, or the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the upswing in July, en route to the 145.00 psychological mark. On the flip side, the 100-period SMA support breakpoint, currently pegged near the 146.60 area, which now coincides with the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level, should now act as an immediate strong barrier. A sustained strength beyond could lift the USD/JPY pair to the 147.00 round figure. This is closely followed by the overnight swing high, around the 147.20 area, which, if cleared, could allow spot prices to accelerate the move up towards the 147.60-147.65 intermediate hurdle en route to the 148.00 round figure. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, extends the decline to around 97.15, the lowest since July 7, during the Asian trading hours on Thursday.

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Risk-on sentiment from the fresh US trade deal was offset by political uncertainty surrounding Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's future.Concerns over the Federal Reserve (Fed) independence might weigh on the US Dollar (USD) in the near term, as US President Donald Trump has repeatedly railed against Chair Jerome Powell and urged him to resign because of the US central bank's reluctance to cut interest rates.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the announcement of a new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair nominee is expected to occur in December or January next year. Bessent stated that there's "no rush" to identify a successor to Fed Chair Powell, adding that a nominee could potentially come from current board members or the heads of the district banks.Bessent stated that he will meet with Chinese officials in Stockholm next week to discuss an extension to the deadline for negotiating a trade deal. Investors remain cautious on how tariff deals will play out as the August 1 deadline still looms for many countries. Any signs of renewed trade tensions could exert some selling pressure on the Greenback. Traders will focus on the preliminary reading of US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July, which is due later on Thursday.  The Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 52.5 in July from 52.0, while the Services PMI is projected to rise to 53.0 in July versus 52.9 prior. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could help limit the USD’s losses. Additionally, the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index will be released later in the same day.  US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its gains for the fifth consecutive day. The AUD/USD pair is reaching fresh eight-month highs above 0.6600 following the release of Australia's preliminary Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar has reached a fresh eight-month high of 0.6613 on Thursday.S&P Australia’s Composite PMI rose to 53.6 in July, marking the highest level since April 2022.US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that a nominee for the next Fed Chair could be announced in December or January.The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its gains for the fifth consecutive day. The AUD/USD pair is reaching fresh eight-month highs above 0.6600 following the release of Australia's preliminary Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. The focus shifts toward the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor's speech.Judo Bank and S&P Global showed that Australia’s Composite PMI rose to 53.6 in July versus 51.6 prior, reaching the highest level since April 2022 and marking the tenth consecutive month of expansion.Australian Services PMI climbed to 53.8 in July from the previous reading of 51.8, reaching its fastest pace in 16 months. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6 in July versus 50.6 prior. New orders for manufactured goods rebounded, driving the strongest overall growth in new business in more than three years.The risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair also receives support from improving market sentiment, driven by the latest trade developments. The Financial Times reported that the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are closing in on a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on EU goods imported into the US.Australian Dollar gains ground as US Dollar declines amid risk-on moodThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is continuing to lose ground and trading around 97.10 at the time of writing. Investors will likely observe the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July later on Thursday.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that a nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair is likely to be announced in December or January. Bessent emphasized that there is “no rush” to select a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, noting that the nominee could come from current board members or the heads of the district banks, according to Bloomberg.US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a major tariff deal with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports. Additionally, talks between the United States (US) and China are gaining momentum ahead of the August 12 deadline.President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan that includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the US. As part of the agreement, Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and open its markets to key American products.Republican Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna has formally accused the Fed Chair Powell of committing perjury on two separate occasions, both stemming from discussions about the Fed's long-scheduled renovations to its head offices in Washington, DC.Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that the US central bank should not lower interest rates "for some time" since the effects of Trump administration tariffs are starting to show up in consumer prices. Kugler added that restrictive monetary policy is essential to keep inflationary psychology in line.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said last week that expecting two rate cuts this year is a "reasonable" outlook, while warning against waiting too long. Daly added that rates would eventually settle at 3% or higher, exceeding the pre-pandemic neutral rate.Fed Governor Christopher Waller believes that the US central bank should reduce its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks. Waller added that delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later.US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated unequivocally in a televised interview, “That’s a hard deadline, so on August 1, the new tariff rates will come in. Nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1, but they’re going to start paying the tariffs on August 1.”The latest Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Meeting Minutes indicated that the board agreed further rate cuts were warranted over time, with attention centered on timing and extent of easing. The majority believed it was best to await confirmation of an inflation slowdown before easing. Most members felt cutting rates three times in four meetings would not be "cautious and gradual.”Westpac reports that its Leading Index continues to reflect weakening momentum. The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index eased to 0.03% in June, down from 0.11% in May. The slowdown is primarily driven by softer commodity prices, waning sentiment, and reduced hours worked.Australian Dollar rises above 0.6600 to mark fresh eight-month highsThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6610 on Thursday. The daily chart’s technical analysis suggested a persistent bullish bias as the pair moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, suggesting a bullish bias is active. Additionally, the pair has also moved above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is strengthening.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may target the psychological level of 0.6650, followed by the ascending channel’s upper boundary around 0.6680.The AUD/USD pair could find its primary support at nine-day EMA at 0.6558. A break below this level could weaken the short-term price momentum and prompt the pair to test the 50-day EMA of 0.6503. Further declines would weaken the medium-term price momentum and drive the pair to approach the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6480, followed by the three-week low at 0.6454, which was recorded on July 17.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.04% -0.03% -0.39% 0.05% -0.12% -0.12% -0.09% EUR 0.04% 0.02% -0.36% 0.09% -0.07% -0.08% -0.04% GBP 0.03% -0.02% -0.40% 0.08% -0.09% -0.10% -0.07% JPY 0.39% 0.36% 0.40% 0.46% 0.27% 0.22% 0.18% CAD -0.05% -0.09% -0.08% -0.46% -0.14% -0.18% -0.15% AUD 0.12% 0.07% 0.09% -0.27% 0.14% -0.01% 0.03% NZD 0.12% 0.08% 0.10% -0.22% 0.18% 0.00% 0.03% CHF 0.09% 0.04% 0.07% -0.18% 0.15% -0.03% -0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Australia for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Australian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Last release: Wed Jul 23, 2025 23:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 53.6 Consensus: - Previous: 51.6 Source: S&P Global

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway said on Thursday that tariffs will mean a weaker global economy and weaker demand and the country will constantly monitor data.

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Uncertainty over tariffs is likely to reduce business investment and inflation in New Zealand. 

Tariffs will mean a weaker global economy and weaker global demand. 

Q2 CPI data was very much in line with our expectations.

See scope to lower rates further if inflation continues to moderate.

Early data reads suggest NZ economic growth slowed in the June quarter.Market reaction At the time of writing, the NZD/USD pair is trading 0.11% higher on the day to trade at 0.6052. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory near 0.6055 during the early Asian session on Thursday, bolstered by improved risk sentiment. Traders will keep an eye on the prospects of US-China trade deals that could improve the global economic outlook. 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD strengthens to around 0.6055 in Thursday’s early Asian session. US and China to discuss tariff deadline extension next week. Traders brace for the preliminary reading of US PMI data for July later on Thursday.The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory near 0.6055 during the early Asian session on Thursday, bolstered by improved risk sentiment. Traders will keep an eye on the prospects of US-China trade deals that could improve the global economic outlook. US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal on Tuesday with Japan, which lowers tariffs on auto imports to 15% in exchange for a $550 billion package of US-bound investment and loans, per Reuters. These positive developments lift the riskier currency, like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD). However, uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs keeps the market on edge. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he will meet with Chinese officials in Stockholm next week to discuss an extension to the deadline for negotiating a trade deal.Tariffs might return to 145% on the US side and 125% on the Chinese side without a trade agreement or a negotiation extension. Any signs of renewed trade tensions might exert some selling pressure on the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. Furthermore, rising expectations of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might contribute to the NZD’s downside. Data released on Monday showed New Zealand's annual inflation rose to a one-year high in the second quarter (Q2) but was below the market consensus. Markets have priced in an 80% possibility of a 25 basis points (bps) cut in August, though investors believe the easing cycle may be nearing its end.Later on Thursday, the preliminary reading of the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July will be in the spotlight. Also, the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index will be published. If the reports show weaker-than-expected outcomes, this could weigh on the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the pair.  New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

 

On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1385 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1414.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1385 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1414. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI rose from previous 51.7 to 53.5 in July

Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI below expectations (50.2) in July: Actual (48.8)

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the announcement of a new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair nominee is expected to occur in December or January next year, per Bloomberg.

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.30 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI posts modest gains as a new US trade deal boosts market optimism. 

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The WTI posts modest gains as a new US trade deal boosts market optimism. The uptick of black gold is bolstered by a trade deal that US President Donald Trump announced with Japan and the Philippines. On Wednesday, the European Union (EU) officials said they were heading towards a trade deal with the US that would result in a broad 15% tariff on EU goods imported into the US, avoiding a higher 30% duties slated to be implemented from August 1.US crude oil inventories fell last week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly crude oil stock report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending July 18 declined by 3.169 million barrels, compared to a fall of 3.859 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 1.4 million barrels. A fall in U.S. crude stockpiles generally lifts the WTI price, as it reflects stronger demand or tighter supply.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he will meet with Chinese officials in Stockholm next week to discuss extending the trade truce. Any signs of renewed trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies could spark fresh concern over global fuel demand and weigh on the WTI price.  WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

GBP/USD climbed on Wednesday, posting strong gains for a third straight day and clawing back toward the 1.3600 handle.

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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The preliminary reading of Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 51.6 in July versus 50.6 prior, the latest data published by Judo Bank and S&P Global showed on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The preliminary reading of Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 51.6 in July versus 50.6 prior, the latest data published by Judo Bank and S&P Global showed on Thursday.The Judo Bank Australian Services PMI climbed to 53.8 in July from the previous reading of 51.8, while the Composite PMI rose to 53.6 in July versus 51.6 prior. Market reactionAt the press time, the AUD/USD pair was up 0.01% on the day to trade at 0.6602. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

The USD/CAD pair holds steady near 1.3600 during the early Asian session on Thursday. However, positive sentiment from a new US trade deal could improve the global economic outlook and lift the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

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However, positive sentiment from a new US trade deal could improve the global economic outlook and lift the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The preliminary reading of US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports for July and Canadian Retail Sales data for May will be the highlights later on Thursday.The Financial Times reported that the EU and the US are closing in on a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on EU goods imported into the US. Progress in US–EU trade negotiations adds to the positive mood and boosts riskier assets like the CAD. Meanwhile, investors will closely monitor trade agreements between the US and Canada. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said earlier this week that the country "will not accept a bad deal" with the US, as a deadline of 1 August looms before US President Donald Trump begins to impose new tariffs. On the other hand, a decline in Crude Oil prices could undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and create a tailwind for the pair. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value.Traders will keep an eye on the Canadian Retail Sales data for May, due later on Thursday, which is expected to decline 1.1%. Still, analysts expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% next week, following recent data that showed underlying inflation remaining well above target. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) came in at 0.6%, above forecasts (0.5%) in 2Q

South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.4%) in 2Q

Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 50.6 to 51.6 in July

Australia S&P Global Composite PMI increased to 53.6 in July from previous 51.6

Australia S&P Global Services PMI rose from previous 51.8 to 53.8 in July

The EUR/USD advanced during the North American session, up 0.16%, as rumors had grown that the United States and the European Union (EU) are about to sign a deal, similar to the one inked between Washington and Tokyo on Tuesday.

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At the time of writing, the pair traded above 1.1770, having reached a daily low of 1.1710.Trade news in the US is grabbing the headlines, keeping investors on their toes as mood fluctuates between risk-on/off. The trade deal between Japan and the US, under which Japan pays 15% tariffs on imports to the US, triggered the first leg down for EUR/USD.Nevertheless, an article in the Financial Times stating that the EU is close to sealing a deal with Washington, with some similarities to the one signed by Tokyo, sparked a U-turn, with the EUR/USD extending its gains past 1.1750.Regarding this, the US trade advisor Peter Navarro said that leaks about an agreement should be taken “with a grain of salt,” adding that the US does not negotiate in public.On the data front, US housing prices reached their highest level for June since 1999, with a 2% increase from the same period a year earlier. Existing Home Sales plunged -2.7% MoM to 3.93 million in June from 4.04 million a month ago.The EU economic docket revealed that Consumer Confidence improved to -14.5 from -14.7, though it remains well below its long-term average, according to the European Commission.Eyes turn to the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision on July 24.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD jumped as a trade deal between the EU-US loomsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck's value against a basket of six currencies, drops 0.20% to 97.20, boosting the Euro’s advance against the former.The EUR/USD extended its rally to four straight days, yet it remains shy of testing 1.1800. However, the FT’s article improved investors' risk appetite due to the significant reduction in EU tariffs from 30% effective on August 1 to 15%, as revealed by people familiar with the trade talks between Washington and Brussels.The FT mentioned that “Both sides would waive tariffs on some products, including aircraft, spirits and medical devices, the people said.”Despite this, EU member states are set to vote on EUR 93 billion of counter-tariffs on US goods on Thursday, and a broad majority of EU members would support using the anti-coercion instrument in the event of no US trade deal and US tariffs of 30%.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the White House is more concerned with the quality of the deals than their timing. When asked about extending the deadline, he said it would be up to Donald Trump to decide.Traders are eyeing the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision on July 24. The odds of the ECB keeping rates unchanged are 60%, with a modest chance of a 0.25 percentage point cut at 40%. Compared to yesterday, the odds of a cut increased from 37.5%.Technical outlook: EUR/USD poised to test 1.1800 and the yearly peak in the near-termThe EUR/USD is upwardly biased after clearing the July 22 high of 1.1760, opening the door to test 1.1800. A breach of the figure will expose the year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.1830, followed by 1.1850. Overhead lies 1.1900.On the other hand, if EUR/USD drops below 1.1750, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) could act as a magnet at 1.1714, before the pair slides toward 1.1700 and below. The next area of demand would be the 50-day SMA at 1.1544. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI fell from previous 70 to 68 in August

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