Forex News Timeline

23:39 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Extends recovery, indicators remain in negative territory
The AUD/JPY pair extended its recovery on Wednesday ahead of the Asian session, rising for the second straight day and trading near the 93.75 zone.

AUD/JPY was seen trading around the 93.75 area ahead of the Asian session, posting a second consecutive day of gains.Indicators show signs of recovery, but the overall outlook remains uncertain as momentum is still in negative territory.The AUD/JPY pair extended its recovery on Wednesday ahead of the Asian session, rising for the second straight day and trading near the 93.75 zone. Buyers are showing renewed interest after the recent downside, but the overall bias remains uncertain as indicators, while improving, continue to signal weakness. Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is climbing sharply but remains in negative territory, indicating that bullish momentum is yet to fully establish. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is printing decreasing red bars, which suggests that selling pressure is fading, but further confirmation is needed for a sustained rebound. Looking ahead, immediate resistance is seen near the 94.00 level, where a breakout could reinforce the short-term bullish outlook. On the downside, key support is found around 93.20, with a break below potentially triggering renewed selling pressure. If the pair manages to hold above this area, consolidation around current levels might be expected. AUD/JPY daily chart

23:34 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD shines above $33.00 as US inflation dips
Silver price rallied to three-week highs as it cleared the $33.00 handle on Wednesday, posting gains of over 0.90%, unfazed by a jump in US Treasury bond yields and a strong US Dollar.

22:40 Gold price defies strong US Dollar amid soft US CPI report
Gold price rises late in the North American session, unfazed by high US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US Dollar on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold climbs above $2,930 as safe-haven demand overcomes rising US yieldsSofter US CPI supports bets on Fed rate cuts, fueling Gold’s rally despite USD rebound.Trade war fears persist; US Treasury yields rise on concerns of renewed inflation pressure from tariffs.Central banks continue aggressive Gold purchases, underpinning bullish sentiment.Gold price rises late in the North American session, unfazed by high US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US Dollar on Wednesday. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades with gains of 0.63% and changes hands at $2,933 after a US inflation report that was softer than projected. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that consumer inflation in the United States (US) edged lower in February. Nevertheless, investors remain skeptical of the improvement as aggressive tariffs on US imports could trigger a second round of inflation. February’s data increased the odds that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates thrice in 2025. Nevertheless, Fed officials, led by Chair Jerome Powell, had expressed that they do not look at just one month of data. In the meantime, US Treasury yields climbed amid fears that the global trade war could push prices higher. Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six currencies, gains 0.14% to 103.55. On Wednesday, 25% US tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect at midnight as US President Donald Trump is battling to reduce the trade deficit by applying duties on imports. The non-yielding metal is poised to extend its rally, even though there is progress on a truce between Ukraine and Russia. The World Gold Council (WGC) revealed that central banks continued to purchase Gold. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the National Bank of Poland (NBP) added 10 and 29 tonnes in the first two months of 2025, respectively. Given the backdrop, Gold is set to test the $2,950 mark. Traders will eye the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for February, Initial Jobless Claims and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment. Daily digest market movers: Gold price shrugs of high US yields The US 10-year Treasury bond yield recovers and rises three basis points to 4.314%. US real yields, as measured by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield that correlates inversely to Gold prices, climb one basis points to 1.981%, capping non-yielding metal gains. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February increased 2.8% YoY, slightly below the expected 2.9% and down from 3.0% in January, indicating continued moderation in inflation. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, dipped from 3.3% in January to 3.1% YoY, reinforcing signs of continued disinflation in the U.S. economy. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts the first quarter of 2025 at -2.4%, which would be the first negative print since the COVID-19 pandemic. Money market traders had priced in 71 basis points of easing in 2025, down from 77 bps a day ago, via data from Prime Market Terminal. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold prolongs its rally past $2,930 Gold price has cleared the top of the $2,880 - $2,930 trading range and hit a two-week peak of $2,940 with buyers eyeing $2,950 as the next key resistance level before clearing the record high at $2,954. Once surpassed, Gold would be poised to challenge $3,000. Conversely, if XAU/USD drops below $2,900, the next support would be $2,850, ahead of the February 28 low of $2,832. Up next would be $2,800. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

22:27 AUD/USD gains after US CPI data
The AUD/USD pair added to Tuesday’s uptick and trespassed the 0.6300 hurdle despite a decent rebound in the Greenback.

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The pair extended gains on Wednesday, supported by softening United States (US) inflation data, which bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may adjust interest rates sooner than previously anticipated. While the US Dollar (USD) attempted a recovery, risk sentiment remained favorable for the Australian Dollar (AUD), opening the door for a potential test of the monthly highs near 0.6360. Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar extends gains as US CPI weakens The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed faster than anticipated in February, with headline CPI inflation declining to 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year. The cooling inflation data, while still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced expectations of potential policy adjustments. Fed rate markets now price in better-than-even odds of a rate cut by June, shifting from the previous consensus of July. US trade policy remains in focus as President Donald Trump reiterated his intent to impose tariffs on imported cars. During a meeting with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin, Trump emphasized that the European Union has been “tough” on US trade, suggesting potential further protectionist measures. The comments fueled market uncertainty regarding upcoming trade negotiations. The Australian Dollar remained resilient despite ongoing US-China trade tensions. Concerns persist that escalating tariffs could significantly impact Australian business activity, given Australia’s heavy reliance on exports to China. So far, the US has imposed 20% tariffs on Chinese imports, and the risk of additional measures remains. AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Upside momentum strengthens toward 0.6360 AUD/USD rose on Wednesday, moving toward the 0.6315 region during the American session, extending its rebound from earlier in the week. Despite an attempted recovery in the US Dollar, the pair maintained bullish traction, with technical indicators showing improving conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to print decreasing red histogram bars, indicating fading bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 54, entering positive territory and suggesting increasing buying momentum. The pair has regained its footing and is approaching key resistance levels. The next upside target stands near 0.6360, where a break could accelerate bullish momentum. On the downside, initial support is seen around 0.6280, with stronger demand expected near 0.6250 if selling pressure re-emerges. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

21:25 Forex Today: US inflation and jobs data take centre stage
Finally, the Greenback managed to regain some composure and clocked acceptable gains following multi-month lows.

Finally, the Greenback managed to regain some composure and clocked acceptable gains following multi-month lows. The broader scenario, however, remained clouded by intense tariff uncertainty as well as fears of a US recession.Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 13: The US Dollar Index (DXY) set aside part of the multi-day deep sell-off, retesting the 103.80 zone amid rising yields. Producer Prices will be in the spotlight seconded by the usual Initial Jobless Claims. EUR/USD met some resistance and receded to the sub-1.0900 region in response to the mild bounce in the US Dollar. Industrial Production in the euro area will be published along with speeches by the ECB’s De Guindos, Nagel and Villeroy. GBP/USD pushed harder and came just pips away from the key 1.3000 threshold, just to give away some impulse afterwards. The RICS House Price Balance will be the sole release across the Channel. USD/JPY added to Tuesday’s uptick, climbing to multi-day highs and briefly surpassing the 149.00 barrier. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are due. Despite tariff concerns and the uptick in the US Dollar, AUD/USD rose further north of the 0.6300 hurdle, hitting two-day peaks at the same time. The final Building Permits and Private House Approvals are expected, followed by the speech by the RBA’s Jones. Prices of WTI rose to three-day highs near the $68.00 mark per barrel despite the ounce in the US Dollar and persistent trade war concerns. Gold prices advanced to two-week tops around $2,940 per troy ounce following tariff jitters and the lower-than-expected US CPI print. Silver prices rose past the $33.00 mark per ounce, coming just short of the yearly peak.

20:35 Canadian Dollar regains lost ground after BoC rate cut as tariff fears dull to a simmer
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) recovered some ground on Wednesday, bolstered by a general easing in Greenback market flows.

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The Loonie gained roughly one-half of one percent against the US Dollar, pushing USD/CAD back down below the 1.4400 handle. The Bank of Canada (BoC) delivered another quarter-point rate cut despite the overarching threat of a trade war with the US spiraling out of control, as the Canadian central bank races to prop up the off-kilter Canadian economy ahead of a prolonged spat over tariffs with US President Donald Trump. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures cooled faster than expected in February, helping to ease overall market tensions somewhat, but investors remain tepid after the US imposed a global 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported into the US. Daily digest market movers: Markets recover balance, but trade war fears continue to simmer The Canadian Dollar clawed back around one-half of one percent on Wednesday, dragging USD/CAD back down to the 1.4350 range, a familiar congestion level for Loonie traders.US CPI inflation eased slightly in February, helping to batten down a resurgence in inflation concerns sparked by an unexpected uptick in price pressures in January.The BoC trimmed its main reference rate by 25 bps, to 2.75%. Further rate cuts will become increasingly more difficult to deliver as the US’s trade war with all of its closest trading partners continues to ramp up.US President Donald Trump reminded markets that he still intends to do another batch of tariffs in April. Another ‘defensive’ tariff is also expected in the near future on copper.Incoming Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is slated to replace incumbent PM Justin Trudeau, noted that he’s ready to talk with the US administration, but on his terms. Canadian Dollar price forecast The Canadian Dollar’s mid-week rebound puts the USD/CAD chart back into dread territory as the lack of a prevailing trend leaves the Loonie pairing exposed to continued whipsaw conditions. A demand zone 1.4440 and 1.4480 has priced in a firm technical ceiling, while technical support from the sub-1.4300 region has put a firm floor just beneath price action. USD/CAD daily chart Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

20:17 US Dollar holds steady after softer CPI data, markets weigh implications
The US Dollar steadies on Wednesday, with DXY hovering around 103.50 as traders digest the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

20:06 Mexican Peso strengthens as US CPI cools
The Mexican Peso (MXN) rallies against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the latest inflation report in the United States (US) could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower borrowing costs, hence widening the interest rate differential between Mexico and the US.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Mexican Peso drives USD/MXN towards the 20.00 figure.Tariff uncertainties persist but yield advantage keeps Peso attractiveUS CPI data softer than expected, raising bets on Fed rate cuts and boosting MXN appeal.Mexico’s Finance Minister acknowledges economic slowdown amid trade tensions; Industrial data eyed.The Mexican Peso (MXN) rallies against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the latest inflation report in the United States (US) could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower borrowing costs, hence widening the interest rate differential between Mexico and the US. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN pair trades at 20.19, down 0.35%. Mexico’s economic docket remains absent, with traders eyeing the release of Industrial Production figures. Nevertheless, data has taken a backseat as US trade policies drive the financial markets. Today, the US began applying 25% tariffs to aluminum and steel imports worldwide, without exemptions, including Mexico. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said that she would wait for a resolution in the upcoming weeks, adding “We will wait until April 2 and from then we will see whether our definition of reciprocal tariffs will be applied too.” Mexican Finance Minister Edgar Amador Zamora said the national economy is expanding but shows signs of slowing down linked to trade tensions with the US. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that consumer inflation in the US came beneath estimates in headline and underlying figures. Although this is a relief for the Federal Reserve (Fed), concerns that tariffs could be inflation-prone would likely keep the Fed in holding mode as they assess their impact on monetary policy. Besides this, Fed officials will watch the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, as some of its data is used to calculate the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso rises boosted by weak US Dollar Data in Mexico shows the economy is slowing down, with private economists estimating growth at 0.81%, according to a Banco de Mexico (Banxico) February poll. This and a dismal Consumer Confidence report on Monday suggest that Banxico could lower interest rates at the upcoming March 27 meeting. According to Reuters, Mexico's president said on Wednesday that the country's government will not tap its open credit line with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), adding that current economic challenges do not yet require financing from the lender. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% MoM in February, below the expected 0.3%. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, inflation eased from 3.0% to 2.8%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% MoM, slowing from January’s 0.4% and falling short of forecasts. Over the past twelve months, Core CPI declined from 3.3% to 3.1%, signaling further disinflationary progress. Money market futures traders had been priced in 74 basis points of easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) toward the end of the year. A Reuters poll showed that 70 out of 74 economists say the risk of recession has risen in the US, Canada and Mexico. In the boiler room, trade disputes between the US and Mexico remain front and center. If the countries reach an agreement, it could pave the way for a recovery of the Mexican currency. Otherwise, further USD/MXN upside is seen as US tariffs could trigger a recession in Mexico. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso surges as USD/MXN tumbles below 20.20 USD/MXN finally broke below the 20.20 figure, which opens the door to test the 20.00 figure, as sellers push the spot price below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 20.22. If the pair drops below 20.00, sellers could challenge the 200-day SMA at 19.62. Conversely, if USD/MXN climbs past the 100-day SMA, buyers could be tempted to challenge the 50-day SMA at 20.47. Once surpassed, the 20.50 mark is up next. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

20:00 United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $-307B below forecasts ($-303.2B) in February
United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $-307B below forecasts ($-303.2B) in February

19:07 United States 10-Year Note Auction dipped from previous 4.632% to 4.31%
United States 10-Year Note Auction dipped from previous 4.632% to 4.31%

19:01 US President Donald Trump: I have the right to adjust tariffs
During a public meeting with Ireland's Prime Minister, or Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, United States (US) President Donald Trump took the opportunity to deliver another hodge-podge of comments addressing his usual variety of topics that White House watchers have become increasingly familiar with.

During a public meeting with Ireland's Prime Minister, or Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, United States (US) President Donald Trump took the opportunity to deliver another hodge-podge of comments addressing his usual variety of topics that White House watchers have become increasingly familiar with. Without sharing any specific details, President Trump declared that the EU has been "tough" on the US in terms of trade, noting that Europeans tend to not buy very many US-produced food products or vehicles. Given the enormous costs of shipping both durable and non-durable goods between two high-income economic zones, as well as prolonged shipping times, the lack of movement of time-sensitive goods such as food and price-sensitive goods such as automobiles is hardly surprising. Donald Trump also reiterated his intent to put tariffs on cars imported into the US, a move which is unlikely to result in a change in manufacturing and instead simply raise the cost of transportation for US citizens. President Donald also reiterated his stance that Canada is "one of the worst" on dairy tariffs. Donald Trump again failed to note that Canada's high tariffs on dairy are a cap-trade restriction allotted under Trump's own USMCA trade deal that he championed during his first deal, and only kick in after a certain amount of US dairy products are imported into Canada. To date, the US has never successfully hit the import quotas to active Canada's dairy tariffs, as most US dairy products fail to meet Canadian health and safety standards. Canada also financially protects its own dairy market in order to prevent US-based economic dumping within its borders, a practice that the US itself has a history of vehemently opposing within its own economy. Key highlights The latest inflation numbers are 'very good news.' The EU has been very tough. We are going to do reciprocal tariffs. I am very happy that oil is down. We have people going to Russia now, I hope we can get a ceasefire. It is up to Russia now. We have gotten some positive messages on ceasefire. Weapons today are so powerful, we're working so hard to get this thing finished. The EU was set up in order to take advantage of the US. Planning to lower taxes if Democrats behave. I have the right to adjust tariffs. April 2nd will be a very big day. There will be very little flexibility. Flexibility on tariffs, but there will be very little flexibility once we start. I will respond to EU counter-tariffs. Tax policy would stop Ireland from taking business. Tax policy is to stop other nations from taking business. There is still a massive deficit, we are going to even that out. I can pressure Russia, but I hope it won't be necessary. I can do financial deals that are bad for Russia. No one is expelling anyone from Gaza. There is a lot of downside for Russia too. The EU has gone after our companies like Apple. I'm not happy with the EU, we'll win that financial battle. The EU doesn't take US farm products or cars. Absolutely will put tariffs on cars. Canada is one of the worst on dairy tariffs. I have great respect for China’s President Xi. NATO can be a force for the good.

18:01 Dow Jones Industrial Average sinks further despite upbeat CPI as trade fears resume
The Dow Jones is down around 150 points on Wednesday, bearing the brunt of broad-market trade war fears as the United States (US) imposes a global 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the US market.

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US consumers are set to bear the brunt of the cost burden, and US officials have signaled that further import tariffs will be coming on other key commodities such as copper. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled even faster than expected in February, with headline CPI inflation falling to 0.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY, declining slightly faster than markets had forecast. The coolish print, while still riding well above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, helped to bolster some confidence that the Fed will remain able to adjust policy rates in the future. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in better-than-even odds of the Fed’s next rate cut happening in June, compared to the previous bet of July. It has been nearly four years since headline US inflation hit “transitory” levels, and outside of a brief lull in Q3 2024, top-of-the-line inflation metrics have remained relatively unchanged from where they sat in June of 2023, when the post-Covid inflation rate initially cooled to 3% on an annualized basis. Commodity watchers will note that within February’s cooler CPI print, the underlying basket is still flashing some possible warning signs that policymakers may need to deal with in the near future: Gasoline and fuel oil prices generally fell during the reference period, declining 3.1% and 5.1% YoY, respectively, but natural gas prices soared 6% in the aggregate. Inflation estimates for shelter prices also climbed another 4.2% YoY, while a slight 0.3% decline in new vehicle prices masked another acceleration in food price inflation, which rose 2.6% from this time a year ago. Market bears refused to let the overall cooler CPI print dampen their selling spirits on Wednesday. The Dow Jones shrugged off an initial topside spike early in the day to resume selling off key stocks in the face of the US administration’s new global 25% import tax on all steel and aluminum into the US. Trade war concerns continue to simmer away near the foreground, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick warning markets that additional protections on copper will likely be in the works. Dow Jones news Roughly two-thirds of the Dow Jones Industrial Average tested into the red on Wednesday, with some of the day’s losses getting offset by an upside recovery in battered tech-rally darling Nvidia (NVDA). Nvidia was up 5.6% on the day, clawing its way back to $115 per share ahead of the company’s week-long GTC AI conference.On the low side, Verizon Communications (VZ) fell 3.3%, slipping below $42 per share. McDonald’s (MCD) also fell 2.7%, dragging the fast food giant down below $300 per share for the first time since early February. Dow Jones price forecast Wednesday’s back-and-forth chart action sees the Dow Jones testing new 26-week lows at the 41,000 major price handle, but bidders remain unwilling to give up the fight entirely, marking in a possible technical turnaround point at the key technical figure. The DJIA remains down around 3.5% for the current week, and intraday bids are off of last November’s record highs by over 8% as the Dow Jones inches toward correction territory. Dow Jones daily chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

18:00 Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.8%) in February
Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.8%) in February

17:46 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Consolidates near 1.0900 as bulls take a breather
The EUR/USD pair traded with a neutral tone on Wednesday after the European session, hovering around the 1.0900 mark as market participants took a step back following its strong rally.

EUR/USD was seen trading around the 1.0900 area after the European session, moving sideways with neutral momentum.Despite recent strong gains, the pair struggles to extend higher as overbought conditions weigh on momentum.The EUR/USD pair traded with a neutral tone on Wednesday after the European session, hovering around the 1.0900 mark as market participants took a step back following its strong rally. The pair appears to be consolidating as bulls hesitate near recent highs, lacking strong momentum to push further. From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in overbought territory but has started to flatten, signaling a pause in buying pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print green bars, suggesting that the overall bullish trend remains intact. However, the lack of immediate follow-through from buyers indicates that further gains may not be imminent. Looking at key levels, immediate resistance is found at 1.0930, while a decisive break above this level could open the door toward 1.0980. On the downside, initial support lies near 1.0850, with stronger buying interest likely around the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0720. EUR/USD daily chart

17:20 GBP/USD slides despite cooling US inflation, eyes on US PPI
The Pound Sterling depreciated against the US Dollar on Wednesday as US inflation data revealed the disinflation process continued.

17:09 Canada's Carney: We are ready to meet with Trump when there's respect for Canada's sovereignty
Mark Carney, the candidate who has been tapped to replace incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, has signalled that he and the Canadian administration responsible for cross-border discussions are ready and prepared to begin holding meetings with their US counterparts, and US President Donald Trump specifically to discuss trade matters.

Mark Carney, the candidate who has been tapped to replace incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, has signalled that he and the Canadian administration responsible for cross-border discussions are ready and prepared to begin holding meetings with their US counterparts, and US President Donald Trump specifically to discuss trade matters. However, incoming PM Carney has fired a shot across Trump's bow, warning that Canada may not be coming to the talks table with the somber, begging approach that President Trump may be hoping for. Future-PM Carney noted that Trump is expected to respect Canada's sovereignty as the nation remains unavailable and uninterested in being 'acquired' by the US. Key highlights We are ready to sit down with the US government and with Trump to discuss tariffs and trade. I am ready to meet with Trump, looking for a common approach. I'm ready to sit down with Trump at the appropriate time, when there's respect for Canadian sovereignty.

16:36 USD/CAD gauges temporary support near 1.4400 after US CPI, BoC’s policy decision
The USD/CAD pair looks for temporary support near the key level of 1.4400 during North American trading hours on Wednesday after the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) interest rate decision.

16:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 1.448M, below expectations (2.1M) in March 7
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 1.448M, below expectations (2.1M) in March 7

15:54 USD/JPY jumps to near 149.00 after soft US CPI data
The USD/JPY pair surges to near 149.20 during North American trading hours on Wednesday.

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Cooling US inflation is expected to boost Fed dovish bets.The Japanese Yen underperforms despite Japan’s firms agreed for further wage hikes.The USD/JPY pair surges to near 149.20 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The asset strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) gains slightly despite the release of the softer-than-expected United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, advances to near 103.75 from an over four-month low of 103.20 posted on Tuesday. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.33% 0.12% 0.68% -0.18% 0.14% 0.18% 0.15% EUR -0.33% -0.20% 0.37% -0.51% -0.20% -0.15% -0.19% GBP -0.12% 0.20% 0.58% -0.29% 0.02% 0.06% 0.03% JPY -0.68% -0.37% -0.58% -0.85% -0.53% -0.50% -0.52% CAD 0.18% 0.51% 0.29% 0.85% 0.32% 0.36% 0.33% AUD -0.14% 0.20% -0.02% 0.53% -0.32% 0.04% 0.02% NZD -0.18% 0.15% -0.06% 0.50% -0.36% -0.04% -0.03% CHF -0.15% 0.19% -0.03% 0.52% -0.33% -0.02% 0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The US CPI report showed that the headline inflation rose by 2.8%, slower than estimates of 2.9% and the 3% increase seen in January. The core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – cooled down to 3.1% from the prior reading of 3.3%. Economists projected a slowdown in the underlying inflation data but at a moderate pace to 3.2%. On month, both headline and core CPI grew by 0.2%, slower than expectations of 0.3%. Cooling inflationary pressures are expected to force traders to raise bets supporting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates in the May meeting. On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the restrictive monetary policy stance won’t long last “if labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation falls more than expected”. The outlook of the US Dollar remains weak in past few weeks as investors see US President Doanald Trump’s tariff agenda leading to an economic slowdown, assuming that higher import duties would lead to a sharp decline in the purchasing power of households. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is underperforming its peers even though big Japanese firms have agreed to substantial wage hikes for the third year in a row, Reuters report. Such a scenario would boost inflation expectations and bets supporting the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates again this year. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

15:45 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (2.75%)
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (2.75%)

15:31 GBP holds in low 1.29 zone – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is down slightly on the session, but price moves largely reflect the broader tone on the USD, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is down slightly on the session, but price moves largely reflect the broader tone on the USD, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. UK forgoes US steel tariff response "The UK has decided against snap retaliation against US steel tariffs and will instead push for broader talks on trade to avoid additional measures." "Cable continues to consolidate around Fib retracement resistance in the low 1.29 zone. Short-term trend momentum remains bullish, suggesting limited scope for GBP losses now; look for support at 1.2875/80. Resistance (bull break out trigger) is 1.2975."

15:26 EUR retains bullish undertone – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) peaked around 1.0950 yesterday vs US Dollar (USD), helped in part by news of progress in Ukraine peace talks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Euro (EUR) peaked around 1.0950 yesterday vs US Dollar (USD), helped in part by news of progress in Ukraine peace talks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EU announces retaliatory tariffs "Spot drifted off the intraday high into the close and is trading little changed on the session. The EU’s retaliatory tariffs target EUR26bn worth of US imports, largely from Republican states in a replay of the EU’s 2018 tactics. The tariffs apply from April 1. The EUR retains a firm undertone overall and continues to trade a little below my FV estimate (1.0983) at present." "The EUR is consolidating. A minor peak may have formed at 1.0947 yesterday but the underlying trend higher in the EUR remains strong and scope for EUR losses may be limited, given the recent pattern of trade where strong advances have been followed by brief consolidations before gains resume. Look for support on EUR dips to the mid/upper 1.08s. Intraday support is 1.0840/45."

15:22 CAD trades steadily on the day – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is moderately higher (with the MXN) as 25% steel/aluminum tariffs were enforced as of midnight.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is moderately higher (with the MXN) as 25% steel/aluminum tariffs were enforced as of midnight. Yesterday’s swings in spot reflected the ebb and flow of tariff headlines and there is unlikely to be any escape from that issue for some time. Thankfully, an off ramp was found amid yesterday’s flurry of threats and counter-threats but ultimately, US manufacturers are still facing a significant jump in input costs from tariffs, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD steady ahead of BoC policy decision as steel tariffs land "Canada is one of the primary sources of aluminum for the US. Bellicose trade talk will ensure that the Bank of Canada has to keep the door open to lower rates down the road. Assuming a 25bps cut at today’s policy decision, taking the Target rate to 2.75%, markets are pricing in roughly 50bps of additional easing, putting the policy rate in the 2.25% area by late this year. A cut and a cautiously dovish bias today are largely priced in to markets at this point." "USD/CAD is likely to continue range trading between 1.4350/1.4550 for now. Price signals suggest some resiliency in the CAD despite all the recent volatility in the market. USD/CAD closed little changed on the day yesterday and the “doji” candle signal that formed on the daily chart suggests the USD’s push into the low 1.45 area has stalled (close to where early March USD gains peaked)." "A look at the intraday chart supports the idea of a short-term USD peak at least, with the USD carving out a bearish outside range around yesterday’s peak on the 6-hour chart. There should be firm resistance now at 1.4525/50 but there may also be a bias towards a modest pickup in the CAD towards support at 1.4400/05. A push below here targets 1.4350/75."

15:17 USD steadies, undertone remains weak – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is trading a little higher overall on the session, but gains are limited and price action suggests the DXY is consolidating recent losses, rather than reversing, at this point, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading a little higher overall on the session, but gains are limited and price action suggests the DXY is consolidating recent losses, rather than reversing, at this point, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD consolidates recent losses but focus on growth/yields remains "Stock market sentiment has improved a little, despite US steel and aluminum tariffs coming into force and the EU announcing retaliatory measures on some US goods. Global bonds are steady (Treasurys) to slightly softer (European debt) while crude oil is a little firmer on the session." "More generally, steadier stocks—now the S&P 500 has reached 'correction' territory—may help the USD stabilize for the moment. The USD moves inversely with equities more typically as heightened equity volatility usually drives 'haven' demand for it." "Equity market losses, reflecting a ratcheting up of tariff threats, is very much a 'made in the USA' issue so the USD may trade more in line with equity sentiment for now. A further drop in the US main averages after the S&P’s cumulative 10% drop from the February high, will add to USD headwinds as investors reconsider the 'US exceptionalism' narrative."

14:32 United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a climbed from previous 324.74 to 325.48 in February
United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a climbed from previous 324.74 to 325.48 in February

14:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) below expectations (319.22) in February: Actual (319.082)
United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) below expectations (319.22) in February: Actual (319.082)

14:30 United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2.9%) in February: Actual (2.8%)
United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2.9%) in February: Actual (2.8%)

14:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in February
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in February

14:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 3.1% below forecasts (3.2%) in February
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 3.1% below forecasts (3.2%) in February

14:30 United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in February
United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in February

14:08 US Dollar braces for US CPI amidst geopolitical headlines
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades broadly flat and stabilizes on Wednesday while traders await the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for February.

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Traders brace for the February US CPI release on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index holds in the mid-103.00 area after bouncing off a pivotal level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades broadly flat and stabilizes on Wednesday while traders await the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for February. The consensus view is that the monthly and yearly gauges on the core and headline inflation data should ease a little from previous readings. That consensus view will be an interesting match with the analysts’ and economists’ forecasts, who have been eagerly releasing comments over the past few weeks that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs are inflationary. On the geopolitical front, China again vowed to retaliate on US tariffs. Meanwhile, Europe is set to issue countermeasures on April 13, European Union (EU) leader Ursula Von Der Leyen said this Wednesday. Overnight headlines emerged on the Ukraine-Russia war, where a ceasefire truce is on the table after Ukraine agreed to a brokered deal by the US. The ball is now in the court of Russia to support or refuse it. Daily digest market movers: Last CPI as an anomalyAt 12:30 GMT, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February will be released: The monthly headline inflation is expected to ease to 0.3% from 0.5% in January. Core inflation is set to ease to 0.3% from 0.4% previously. The yearly headline reading is expected to decelerate to 2.9% from 3.0% in January. The core gauge is set to soften to 3.2% from 3.3% the previous month. A much softer reading in inflation data should boost rate-cut bets for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and result in another drop in the US Dollar. Around 17:00 GMT, the US Treasury will auction a 10-year Note. At 17:35 GMT, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at the NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. Equities are enjoying a big sigh of relief with a ceasefire deal on the table for Ukraine. In Europe, all indices are up over 1%. The CME Fedwatch Tool projects a 97.0% chance for no interest rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting on March 19. The chances of a rate cut at the May 7 meeting stand at 37.6% and 81.7% at June’s meeting. The US 10-year yield trades around 4.27%, off its near five-month low of 4.10% printed on March 4.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Not a one-day eventThe US Dollar Index (DXY) still faces potential selling pressure as recession fears remain. Traders are concerned about tariffs’ impact and uncertainty on the US economy. A softer inflation reading could help take away the recession fear, though it would still result in a weaker US Dollar with an increasing Federal Reserve’s rate cut bets and a declining rate differential with other countries as main drivers. Upside risk is the fear of a rejection at 104.00 that could result in more downturn. If bulls can avoid that, look for a large sprint higher towards the 105.00 round level, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 105.03. Once broken through that zone, a string of pivotal levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, will present as caps. On the downside, the 103.00 round level could be considered a bearish target in case US yields roll off again, with even 101.90 not unthinkable if markets further capitulate on their long-term US Dollar holdings. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

14:00 Brazil IPCA Inflation came in at 1.31%, above expectations (1.3%) in February
Brazil IPCA Inflation came in at 1.31%, above expectations (1.3%) in February

13:12 AUD/USD oscillates below 0.6300 ahead of US Inflation data
The AUD/USD pair trades in a tight range below the key level of 0.6300 in Wednesday’s European session.

13:03 Portugal Global Trade Balance up to €-7.211B in January from previous €-7.976B
Portugal Global Trade Balance up to €-7.211B in January from previous €-7.976B

13:01 United States MBA Mortgage Applications down to 11.2% in March 7 from previous 20.4%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications down to 11.2% in March 7 from previous 20.4%

12:58 USD/CAD to tick down to 1.41 in the near term – Danske Bank
Today, focus in CAD FX space turns to the BoC meeting at 14:45 CET - where markets and consensus favour a 25bp rate cut, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report.

Today, focus in CAD FX space turns to the BoC meeting at 14:45 CET - where markets and consensus favour a 25bp rate cut, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report. Any easing on tariffs to act as a CAD positive "We also anticipate a 25bp rate cut, bringing the policy rate to 2.75%, as we expect the BoC to ensure that the Canadian economy is well-padded against the impact of US tariffs. Note that it is an interim meeting without a new MPR, but focus will remain on tariffs, which continues to weigh heavily on USD/CAD." "This was evident in yesterday's session, with the cross surpassing the 1.45-mark following Trump's remarks about doubling tariffs on all imported steel and aluminium products from Canada after Ontario announced that it would maintain its electricity levy until US tariffs were removed." "However, the pair concluded the session lower around 1.44 amid news that Trump is 'probably' going to reduce the recently increased tariffs on Canada after Ontario suspended its surcharge on electricity exports to the US. We forecast USD/CAD to tick down to 1.41 in the near term, given stretched short CAD positioning and further USD-weakness. Any easing on tariffs would act as a CAD positive, while more hawkish tones from the BoC would also support our short-term view."

12:54 EUR/USD: Market focus shifts to US CPI – Danske Bank
EUR/USD has edged slightly higher over the last 24 hours, with the EUR and European currencies broadly outperforming in the G10 space amid rising optimism that Germany's debt package will be approved, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report.

EUR/USD has edged slightly higher over the last 24 hours, with the EUR and European currencies broadly outperforming in the G10 space amid rising optimism that Germany's debt package will be approved, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report. EUR and European currencies outperform in the G10 space "Yesterday's US JOLTS job openings came in slightly above consensus at 7,740k (cons.: 7,600k) but saw negative revisions, leaving the data largely in line with expectations." "Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports from Canada, effective today, had remarkably little market impact - reinforcing the view that tariff announcements hold diminishing significance for markets." "Today, the focus shifts to US CPI. We expect headline inflation at +0.2% m/m SA and core at +0.3% m/m SA - slightly below consensus for the headline print. However, this is not a high-conviction call, as the impact of tariffs remains difficult to quantify."

12:50 USD/JPY: Further tactical downside may be limited for now – Danske Bank
The tactical short USD/JPY spot trade from FX Top Trades 2025, initiated on 13 January, has reached its soft target of 147.00, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report.

The tactical short USD/JPY spot trade from FX Top Trades 2025, initiated on 13 January, has reached its soft target of 147.00, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report. Little room for further downside in long-end US yields "While we initially intended to keep the trade open and adjusted the soft target to 145.00, we have decided to close the position booking a 5.7% profit, including a negative carry of -0.57%." "While we still favour short USD/JPY on a strategic basis, the pair has remained steady in the 147-148 range despite declining US yields and risk-off sentiment - typically JPY-positive factors - suggesting that further tactical downside may be limited for now." "Additionally, in our view, there is little room for further downside in long-end US yields, and as such, we believe closing this trade is the prudent move."

12:45 Germany 10-y Bond Auction: 2.92% vs 2.52%
Germany 10-y Bond Auction: 2.92% vs 2.52%

12:45 Germany 10-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 2.52% to 2392%
Germany 10-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 2.52% to 2392%

12:45 USD/CAD can move towards 1.4240 and 1.4150 – Société Générale
USD/CAD broke out from its multiyear range and experienced an extended uptrend, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

USD/CAD broke out from its multiyear range and experienced an extended uptrend, Société Générale's FX analysts note. A move towards 1.4240 and 1.4150 can’t be ruled out "The move has faced strong resistance near 1.4800 last month. A phase of consolidation is under way after this test. The pair has so far carved out a lower high near 1.4550, the 61.8% retracement of the first leg of pullback." "However, signals of a large decline are not yet visible. Low achieved earlier this week at 1.4350 is first support. If this is breached, a deeper down move can’t be ruled out towards 1.4240 and February low of 1.4150."

12:41 Back and forth on tariffs – ING
President Donald Trump threatened to increase steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada to 50% in retaliation to Ontario’s move to raise taxes on electricity exports to the US, a sign of trade war escalation.

President Donald Trump threatened to increase steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada to 50% in retaliation to Ontario’s move to raise taxes on electricity exports to the US, a sign of trade war escalation. However, Trump backed down fairly quickly after Ontario dropped its electricity surcharge, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. More price rises are likely in the near term "Broader tariffs of 25% come into effect today for aluminium and steel imports. Aluminium is likely to be most impacted with the US importing significant volumes of its aluminium from abroad. Canada is the main source of aluminium for US industry, accounting for 58% of imports, US government figures show." "Canada supplies about 23% of steel imports into the US. Tariffs have seen the US Midwest aluminium premium surge; it’s up more than 75% since the beginning of the year. More price rises are likely in the near term."

12:39 Germany 10-y Bond Auction up to 2.92% from previous 2.52%
Germany 10-y Bond Auction up to 2.92% from previous 2.52%

12:39 USD/CNH: Room for another leg lower towards 7.2200 before stabilization – UOB Group
As long as any recovery in US Dollar (USD) remains below 7.2500 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH), there is room for another leg lower towards 7.2200 before stabilization can be expected.

As long as any recovery in US Dollar (USD) remains below 7.2500 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH), there is room for another leg lower towards 7.2200 before stabilization can be expected. In the longer run, while there has been no significant increase in momentum, USD could potentially drop to 7.2000, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD can potentially drop to 7.2000 24-HOUR VIEW: "Two days ago, USD rose to a high of 7.2697 before closing at 7.2637. Yesterday, we highlighted that 'despite the advance, there has been no significant increase in momentum, and instead of continuing to rise, USD is more likely to trade in a 7.2400/7.2700 range.' Instead of trading in a range, USD fell, reaching a low of 7.2250 in late NY trade. The sharp drop appears to be overdone, and while USD could recover today, as long as 7.2500 is not breached, there is potential for further downside toward 7.2200 before stabilization can be expected. The major support at 7.2000 is unlikely to come into view today." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (06 Mar, spot at 7.2440), we indicated that 'the downward pressure remains intact, and should USD break below and hold below 7.2260, the next level to watch is 7.2000.' Yesterday (Tuesday), USD fell slightly below 7.2260 (low of 7.2250). While there has been no significant increase in downward momentum, USD could potentially drop to 7.2000. We will hold the same view, provided that the ‘strong resistance’ at 7.2650 (level previously at 7.2800) is not breached."

12:35 China: FDI no longer a two-way street – Standard Chartered
China has turned into a FDI net exporter since 2022, with inward flows collapsing to USD 4.5bn in 2024.

China has turned into a FDI net exporter since 2022, with inward flows collapsing to USD 4.5bn in 2024. China ODI has shifted from DM to EM, and become more focused on metals and transport in recent years. Amid near-term capital outflow pressure, demand for diversification to support CNY and assets medium-term, Standard Chartered's economists report. A dramatic unfolding of Trump 2.0 "Trump 2.0 has unfolded in an unprecedented fashion; only a month after taking office, he has announced multiple tariff actions on a broad swathe of countries. The US stance on China remains tough, with another 20% tariff already imposed. Besides trade, the US also seeks to curb China’s maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors. Furthermore, Trump has signed the America First Investment Policy memorandum, hardening restrictions on bilateral investment with China. We believe more such actions are likely." "Near-term, additional US tariffs could drag down China’s growth, while the impact of its other restrictions are likely to be limited. China dominates global shipping; hence, finding an alternative to China and building ships may take time. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) mandate had already been strengthened during the previous trade war, and China’s FDI in the US has dropped notably since then. However, rising policy uncertainty could continue to disrupt global supply chains and capital markets, increasing market fragmentation. This could pose downward pressure on the CNY near-term. Medium-term, however, RMB internationalization could be accelerated, supporting both the currency and demand for CNY-dominated assets." "In this report, we look at China’s FDI trends. China has turned into a net FDI exporter since 2022, reflecting a reduction in foreign investors’ investment and the repatriation of profits from China. China has increasingly invested in EM while its outward direct investment (ODI) in DM has declined notably (not only in the US). By sector, its ODI in metals and transport has ramped up while dropping in energy and technology. The US’ FDI position (i.e., cumulative FDI) in China is triple that of China’s ODI position in the US. While we do not expect China to target US FDI assets broadly as part of its retaliation against US tariffs, protectionist policies in the US could prompt capital withdrawal from China, adding downward pressure on the CNY."

12:31 India Cumulative Industrial Output: 4.2% (January) vs 4%
India Cumulative Industrial Output: 4.2% (January) vs 4%

12:31 India Manufacturing Output rose from previous 3% to 5.5% in January
India Manufacturing Output rose from previous 3% to 5.5% in January

12:30 India Industrial Output came in at 5%, above expectations (3.5%) in January
India Industrial Output came in at 5%, above expectations (3.5%) in January

12:26 USD/JPY: Expected to trade in a range between 146.50 and 149.50 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could continue to rebound vs Japanese Yen (JPY), but it does not seem to have enough momentum to break above 148.80.

US Dollar (USD) could continue to rebound vs Japanese Yen (JPY), but it does not seem to have enough momentum to break above 148.80. In the longer run, downward momentum has largely faded; USD is expected to trade in a range between 146.50 and 149.50, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Downward momentum has largely faded 24-HOUR VIEW: "Although we indicated yesterday that USD 'could continue to decline', we pointed out, 'it remains to be seen if it has enough momentum to reach 146.05.' We added, 'To sustain the momentum, USD must remain below 147.60.' USD subsequently fell less than expected (low of 146.52) and then staged a surprisingly robust rebound (high of 148.11). Today, USD could continue to rebound, but currently, it does not seem to have enough momentum to break above 148.80. Support is at 147.50, followed by 147.00." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After holding a negative USD view since late last week, we indicated yesterday (11 Mar, spot at 146.80) that it 'is expected to continue to decline, and the next technical target is at 146.05'. We did not anticipate the strong rebound that reached 148.11. While our ‘strong resistance’ level at 148.25 has not been breached yet, downward momentum has largely faded. From here, we expect USD to trade in a range between 146.50 and 149.50."

12:24 Gas: Market is eagerly watching how ceasefire talks evolve – ING
European natural gas prices rose yesterday with TTF Natural Gas Futures (TTF) settling almost 3.6% higher on the day, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

European natural gas prices rose yesterday with TTF Natural Gas Futures (TTF) settling almost 3.6% higher on the day, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Increased attacks may provide further support to the market "Colder weather is forecast in Northwest Europe over the coming days, which should support demand. In addition, increased attacks between Russia and Ukraine may provide further support to the market." "The market is eagerly watching how ceasefire talks evolve. EU gas storage is a little under 36% full, down from 61% at the same stage last year and below the 5-year average of 47% full."

12:17 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps to near $33 on US slowdown fears, US CPI eyed
Silver price (XAG/USD) climbs to near $33.00 in European trading hours on Wednesday, the highest level seen in more than two weeks.

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The white metal strengthens as deepening fears of a United States (US) economic slowdown have kept the US Dollar (USD) on the backfoot. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is slightly higher but remains close to an over four-month low of 103.35. Investors expect the US economy is exposed to a recession as the tariff policies of President Donald Trump could weigh on consumer demand in the near term, assuming that tariffs will be inflationary. Fears of a US recession escalated after comments from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in a CBS interview on Tuesday indicated that policies by the President are worthwhile despite fears that they could lead to a recession. The appeal of precious metals, such as Silver, increases when economic uncertainty heightens. Growing US economic risks have fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates sooner rather than later. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 42% chance that the central bank will cut interest rates in May, significantly increased from 10.4% seen a month ago. For fresh guidance on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Economists expect the year-on-year headline inflation data to have risen at a slower pace of 2.9%, compared to the 3% increase seen in January. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – is estimated to have decelerated to 3.2% from the prior release of 3.3%. On the geopolitical front, growing optimism over an end of war in Ukraine has failed to weigh on the Silver price. On Tuesday, Ukraine agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in a meeting with US officials in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Russia wants to speak with US President Trump before commenting on the acceptability of a temporary ceasefire. Silver technical analysis Silver price trades in an Ascending Triangle chart pattern on a daily timeframe, which indicates indecisiveness among market participants. The horizontal resistance of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the February 14 high of $33.40, while the upward-sloping border is placed from the December 31 low of $28.78. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.20, continues to support the Silver price. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs above 60.00. A bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI sustains above that level. Looking down, the psychological level of $30.00 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier. Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

12:11 Kremlin: Need to hear from US before commenting on the acceptability of a ceasefire for Russia
The Kremlin said in a statement on Wednesday, “we need to hear from US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio before we will comment on the acceptability of a ceasefire for Russia.” Additional takeaways A call between Trump and Putin can be organised "very fast" if needed Carefully studying statements issued after US-Ukraine talks.

The Kremlin said in a statement on Wednesday, “we need to hear from US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio before we will comment on the acceptability of a ceasefire for Russia.” Additional takeaways A call between Trump and Putin can be organised "very fast" if needed Carefully studying statements issued after US-Ukraine talks. Expect the US camp to brief Moscow on details of talks in the coming days.

12:08 United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction down to 4.679% from previous 4.808%
United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction down to 4.679% from previous 4.808%

12:03 NZD/USD: Expected to trade in a 0.5675/0.5730 – UOB Group
Momentum indicators are turning neutral; New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a 0.5675/0.5730 range vs US Dollar (USD).

Momentum indicators are turning neutral; New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a 0.5675/0.5730 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, there has been no further increase in upward momentum; a break of 0.5660 would mean that the recovery is not reaching 0.5775, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Momentum indicators are turning neutral 24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected NZD to 'edge lower' yesterday, we pointed out, 'it is unlikely to break the strong support level at 0.5660.' We highlighted that 'resistance levels are at 0.5715 and 0.5730.' However, NZD dipped less than expected, as it rebounded from 0.5679 to 0.5725. Momentum indicators are turning neutral, and we expect NZD to trade in a 0.5675/0.5735 range today." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (11 Mar, spot at 0.5695). As highlighted, the recent price action did not result 'in any increase in momentum,' and a break of 0.5660 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that the recovery is not reaching 0.5775.”

11:59 EIA reduces oil surplus estimates – ING
Despite the ongoing uncertainty in global markets, oil prices managed to settle higher yesterday, supported by the weaker USD.

Despite the ongoing uncertainty in global markets, oil prices managed to settle higher yesterday, supported by the weaker USD. Even so, ICE Brent continues to trade below US$70/bbl and prices will likely remain sensitive to external developments. The oil market seems to be largely ignoring Ukraine agreeing to a US-brokered ceasefire. There is still uncertainty over where Russia stands on the proposed agreement, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Uncertainty over where Russia stands on the proposed agreement "Numbers overnight from the American Petroleum Institute (API) were fairly bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 4.2m barrels over the last week, well above the roughly 2m barrel build the market expected. Draws in Cushing crude oil inventories and gasoline stocks offset some of the bearishness, falling 1.2m barrels and 4.6m barrels, respectively. Meanwhile, distillate stocks grew by 400k barrels." "U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook showed that surplus expectations for the market over 2025 and 2026 were reduced thanks to sanctions. The EIA now expects the global market to be in a 100k b/d surplus in 2025, compared to a previous forecast for a surplus of 500k b/d. In 2026, the EIA cut its surplus forecast from 1m b/d to 500k b/d. US crude oil production estimates were increased marginally for both 2025 and 2026, despite the more recent weakness seen in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude."

11:58 Gold retains gains with Ukraine ceasefire deal on the table
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) holds onto weekly gains and trades above $2,915 at the time of writing on Wednesday ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for February.

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A US-brokered ceasefire deal in Ukraine is on the table for Russia to consider. Traders are mulling the upcoming US inflation data on Wednesday. Gold’s price (XAU/USD) holds onto weekly gains and trades above $2,915 at the time of writing on Wednesday ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for February. Market consensus is for a deceleration in all inflation measures, both monthly and yearly gauges. However, many analysts and economists have commented that the current US tariff approach will be inflationary for the US, which could trickle through in the numbers. Meanwhile, traders are still cautious about tariffs after the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi commented that if the US wants to suppress China with its steel and aluminum tariffs. Europe, meanwhile, committed to putting countermeasures in place by April 13. On the geopolitical side, a ceasefire deal in Ukraine brokered by the US has been put forward to Russia for consideration. Daily digest market movers: Concerns on Wall StreetChinese consumption stocks rise as the nation’s annual political gathering wraps up with support for domestic demand. Hong Kong jewelers lead the gains, bolstered by haven demand for Gold proxies, Bloomberg reports. Wall Street is growing angsty as investors become increasingly unnerved by whipsawing tariff policy, sticky inflation, and the unknown pace of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate easing. Market forecasters at banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and RBC Capital Markets, have tempered bullish calls for 2025 as Trump’s tariffs stoke fears of slowing economic growth, Bloomberg reports. The CME Fedwatch Tool sees a 97.0% chance for no interest rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting on March 19. The chances of a rate cut at the May 7 meeting currently stand at 39.5%. Technical Analysis: Catalyst warningRelentless – that is wording that comes to mind when thinking about both the headlines on tariffs and the move in Gold this week. The Monday dip was bought eagerly, while Bullion now makes its way to test the monthly cap around $2,930. Once that level breaks, a move toward a new all-time high is back in the cards. Gold is back above the $2,900 round level and, from an intraday technical perspective, it is back above the daily Pivot Point at $2,906. Gold is on its way to the R1 resistance near $2,931, converging with last week’s highs. Once through there, the intraday R2 resistance at $2,947 comes into focus on the upside ahead of the all-time high of $2,956. On the downside, the Wednesday Pivot Point stands at $2,906. In case that level breaks, look at the S1 support around $2,890. The S2 support at $2,864, coinciding with the February 12 low, should avoid any further downturn. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

11:56 AUD/USD: Expected to trade in a 0.6255/0.6320 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a 0.6255/0.6320 range vs US Dollar (USD).

Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a 0.6255/0.6320 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase between 0.6215 and 0.6355, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase 24-HOUR VIEW: "When AUD was at 0.6280 yesterday, we noted that it 'is under mild downward pressure.' We indicated that it 'could test 0.6250, but the major support at 0.6215 is not expected to come to come into view.' We highlighted that 'Resistance is at 0.6295; a breach of 0.6320 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.' However, AUD did not quite test 0.6250, as it traded between 0.6259 and 0.6312. The price movements are likely part of a range trading phase. Today, we expect AUD to trade in a 0.6255/0.6320 range." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (11 Mar, spot at 0.6280) still stands. As highlighted, The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase between 0.6215 and 0.6355.”

11:49 CAD: Another insurance cut – ING
We expect a 25bp rate cut of the Bank of Canada overnight rate to 2.75% today.

We expect a 25bp rate cut of the Bank of Canada overnight rate to 2.75% today. This would be a consensus move and markets are fully pricing it in. All the focus will be on the wording for future moves and, crucially, on hints of the BoC’s reaction function to US tariffs, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. USD/CAD to move above 1.45 on the back of US protectionism "The BoC already outlined a baseline scenario where US tariffs triggered an initially larger growth impact compared to the inflationary shock. That suggests a dovish BoC reaction and markets are pricing in 75bp of cuts in total (including today) for 2025." "While Trump’s 50% metals tariff threat only lasted half a day, recent developments point in the direction of further escalation in the US-Canada trade spat and raises the probability that the BoC will err on the dovish side in its communication to prevent excessive negative repricing in growth expectations." "We have been bullish on USD/CAD, and still favour a structural move above 1.45 on the back of US protectionism. The upcoming electoral campaign in Canada will focus on the tariff response, and indications of growing anti-US sentiment means both the Conservatives (which are leading in polls) and the Liberals (now led by Mark Carney) will retain a rather hawkish stance on trade."

11:45 EUR/USD stays firm on US recession risks, US inflation in focus
EUR/USD ticks lower but stays near a five-month high, trading at 1.0920 in European trading hours on Wednesday.

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The major currency pair remains firm as the US Dollar (USD) is broadly on the backfoot due to increased concerns over the United States (US) economic outlook under the leadership of President Donald Trump. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises slightly after gauging temporary support near an over four-month low of 103.35. The US Dollar underperforms as US President Trump’s tariff agenda has fuelled risks of an economic recession in the near term. Market participants expect Trump’s “America First” policies to boost inflationary pressures, eventually diminishing the purchasing power of households already battling high inflation. Meanwhile, fears of a US recession escalated after comments from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in a CBS interview on Tuesday indicated that policies by the President are worthwhile despite they had prompted fears of a recession. Lutnick said, “These policies are the most important thing America has ever had, and they are worth it” after being asked whether it would be worth executing Trump’s policies even if they led to a recession. On the domestic front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to the US inflation data as it will influence market speculation over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Year-over-year headline inflation data is estimated to have decelerated to 2.9% from the 3% increase seen in January. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – is expected to have risen by 3.2% compared to the prior release of 3.3%. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains as Ukraine agrees to an immediate 30-day ceasefire EUR/USD has been advancing for over a week as the Euro (EUR) is outperforming on optimism over the German defense spending deal. Hopes for a clearance to German debt restructuring to boost defense spending accelerated after Franziska Brantner-led-German Green Party agreed to negotiate with likely next Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) co-leader Lars Klingbeil in a scheduled meeting on Thursday. Market participants expect that widening the German “debt brake” could be a game-changer for the Eurozone economy, assuming that the monetary stimulus will stimulate economic growth. Such a scenario would also force the European Central Bank (ECB) officials to reassess their monetary policy path. The ECB had been guiding that the interest rate path is clearly on the downside. Additionally, the acceleration in optimism over peace in Ukraine has increased the Euro’s appeal. On Tuesday, Ukraine agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in a meeting with US officials in Saudi Arabia. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he would now take the offer to the Russians, Reuters report. Meanwhile, tariff policies by US President Trump continue to be a nightmare for the Euro. Trump’s tariff policies keep him in a dominant position while negotiating deals with his trading partners. On Tuesday, Canada’s Ontario Premier, Doug Ford, rolled back the 25% surcharge levied on electricity exported to the US after Trump threatened to increase levies on steel and aluminum imports from Canada to 50%. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD wobbles inside Tuesday’s trading range EUR/USD stays firm near 1.0900 and trades inside Tuesday’s trading range on Wednesday. The major currency pair strengthened after a decisive breakout above the December 6 high of 1.0630 last week. The long-term outlook of the major currency pair is bullish as it holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0650. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps to near 75.00, indicating a strong bullish momentum. Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:35 GBP/USD may have just enough momentum to test 1.2975 – UOB Group
While overbought, Pound Sterling (GBP) may have just enough momentum to test 1.2975 vs US Dollar (USD) before the risk of a pullback increases.

While overbought, Pound Sterling (GBP) may have just enough momentum to test 1.2975 vs US Dollar (USD) before the risk of a pullback increases. In the longer run, uptrend in GBP appears to be ready to consolidate or pause; a break below 1.2855 will indicate that upward momentum has eased, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Uptrend in GBP appears to be ready to consolidate or pause 24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we held the view that GBP 'is likely to trade in a range between 1.2845 and 1.2930.' Our view was incorrect, as GBP soared, reaching a high of 1.2966. While conditions are overbought, GBP may have just enough momentum to test the key resistance at 1.2975 before the risk of a pullback increases. The next resistance at 1.3000 is unlikely to come under threat. Support levels are at 1.2920 and 1.2900." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our outlook for GBP to positive early last week. After tracking the rise for more than a week, we highlighted yesterday (11 Mar, spot at 1.2875) that “upward momentum is slowing, and a breach of 1.2830 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that 1.2975 is out of reach this time around.” Although GBP subsequently rose to 1.2966, there has been no further increase in momentum. Overall, the uptrend appears to be ready to consolidate or pause, and a break below 1.2855 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.2830 yesterday) would indicate that the current upward momentum has eased. Looking ahead, should GBP break above 1.2975, there is another major resistance at 1.3000."

11:34 ECB's Šimkus: We will see if we cut rates or pause in April
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Wednesday that “we will see if we cut rates or pause in April.” Further comments It is irrational to commit to future rate decisions.

11:30 FX option expiries for Mar 12 NY cut
FX option expiries for Mar 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Mar 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0700 779m 1.0875 896m 1.0950 974m GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2650 750m USD/JPY: USD amounts 148.00 577m 150.00 2.3b USD/CHF: USD amounts 0..8900 545m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6295 601m 0.6385 616m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4320 791m 1.4380 734m NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.5575 792m EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8405 564m

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:11 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Remains below 1.4450 near immediate support at nine-day EMA
USD/CAD retraces its recent losses, trading around 1.4440 during the European hours on Wednesday.

11:01 NZD/USD bulls remain on the defensive near 0.5700; focus remains on US CPI report
The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from a multi-day low, around the 0.5680-0.5675 region and attracts fresh sellers on Wednesday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick.

11:00 BoC expected to trim interest rate again amid US trade war
All eyes are on the Bank of Canada (BoC) this Wednesday, with market consensus expecting another rate cut—the seventh in a row.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Bank of Canada (BoC) is seen reducing its policy rate by 25 bps.The Canadian Dollar remains on the defensive against the US Dollar.Headline inflation in Canada remains below the bank’s 2% target.Attention will also be on Governor Macklem’s press conference.All eyes are on the Bank of Canada (BoC) this Wednesday, with market consensus expecting another rate cut—the seventh in a row. This time, the talk is about a 25-basis-point reduction, similar to the move in January. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been losing some steam lately, falling from last week’s highs and nearing the 1.4500 level against the US Dollar (USD). Adding another twist, Canada's inflation figures are now in focus. In February, the annual inflation rate, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI), edged up to 1.9% from 1.8%. At the same time, the BoC’s core CPI increased for the second straight month, reaching 2.1% compared to the same period in 2024, which exceeds the bank's target.Navigating trade turbulence: The Bank of Canada's strategyFurther easing seems likely, though the Bank of Canada is expected to remain cautious. The central bank is balancing several factors—a recent uptick in inflation, a strong labour market and GDP levels that align with its forecasts—with the uncertainties brought on by the Donald Trump administration’s unpredictable United States (US) trade policies. At its January meeting, Governor Tiff Macklem noted that the threat of tariffs is hard to ignore when you look outside. He explained that ensuring the economy is on solid ground before new tariffs take effect is crucial. From a risk management standpoint, this concern helped drive the decision to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. Regarding inflation, Macklem emphasized that while some increase was anticipated, the key was to prevent an initial rise in prices from spreading widely to other goods, services, and wages. He stressed that the aim was for inflation to eventually return to 2% rather than evolving into a persistent, harmful trend for Canadians. Minutes released on February 12 further revealed that the Bank of Canada's governing council was worried a prolonged trade conflict with the US could permanently shrink domestic GDP. The minutes also noted that on January 29, the BoC reduced its key policy rate to 3%—its sixth consecutive cut—in light of the potential economic risks if President Donald Trump followed through on his threat to impose tariffs on all Canadian imports. Previewing the BoC’s interest rate decision, Taylor Schleich, Warren Lovely and Ethan Currie at the National Bank of Canada noted: “The Bank of Canada is all but assured to lower its overnight target by 25 basis points on Wednesday, the presumptive move marking the seventh straight rate cut and bringing the policy rate to the mid-point of the estimated neutral range. Unlike prior decisions though, easing will be less about absorbing already-accumulated economic slack and more about supporting an economy mired in trade conflict. Indeed, in normal times recent data would likely be consistent with holding steady on the policy rate, as GDP and jobs growth pick up and underlying inflation firms. But the Bank was already leaning dovish, Macklem stressing that trade uncertainty alone was ‘doing damage’ so it’s not clear that these data will matter much for this decision.” When will the BoC release its monetary policy decision, and how could it affect USD/CAD? The Bank of Canada is set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday at 13:45 GMT, with Governor Tiff Macklem scheduled to hold a press conference at 14:30 GMT. While major surprises are not expected, investors predict the tone of the bank’s message will remain fixated on US tariffs and their impact on the Canadian economy, a view that can extend to developments around the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Senior Analyst Pablo Piovano from FXStreet noted that if the recovery picks up pace, USD/CAD should face initial resistance at its March peak of 1.4542 set on March 4. A breakout of the latter could pave the way for a potential test of the 2025 high at 1.4792 recorded on February 3. Additionally, Piovano indicated that occasional bearish moves might test the March low of 1.4237 hit on March 6, seconded by the provisional 100-day SMA at 1.424 and then the 2025 bottom of 1.4150 reached on February 14. Economic Indicator BoC Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country. Read more. Next release: Wed Mar 12, 2025 13:45 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: 2.75%Previous: 3%Source: Bank of Canada Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

10:49 Lagarde speech: Cannot ensure that inflation will always be at 2%
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that they cannot ensure that inflation will always be at 2% but added that they must set the monetary policy so it converges to 2%, per Reuters.

10:38 USD: Room to rebound – ING
Global risk sentiment continued to sour yesterday as President Trump announced he’d double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, and later pulled the threat as Ontario suspended a 25% surcharge on electricity exports.

Global risk sentiment continued to sour yesterday as President Trump announced he’d double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, and later pulled the threat as Ontario suspended a 25% surcharge on electricity exports. Markets have been looking for some reprieve from the tariff story, but there are very few signs that stock instability can press Trump to scale back protectionism noise just yet. US global tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect today without exemptions, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. The tide can turn pretty rapidly for the USD "The US Dollar (USD) ended the day lower again yesterday but started to rebound overnight. Our view is that with US tariffs being rolled out, the greenback has room to recover. The reasoning is that if data fails to endorse market pessimism on the US in the coming weeks, the tide can turn pretty rapidly for the dollar. The whole premise of the current bearish narrative is that US tariffs are harming a slowing US economy, but recessionary calls in the recent past have often been misplaced when it comes to the US." "Incidentally, the inflation story is yet to improve convincingly enough for the Fed to cut rates again. Today’s February CPI release can trigger an uptick in the dollar should our call for 0.3% core CPI MoM print prove correct. That is also the consensus view, but the dollar is embedding quite a lot of negatives and should be asymmetrically more sensitive to hawkish news. We have a bullish bias on USD today." "We have also seen important political developments inside and outside the US. On the latter, Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire deal brokered by the US. That now needs to be approved by Russia. Domestically, the US House passed legislation to avert a government shutdown on Saturday. A few votes from moderate Democrats are needed to secure Senate approval, and markets are not ready to price the shutdown risk out just yet."

10:37 EUR/USD: More likely to consolidate in a 1.0870/1.0950 range – UOB Group
Further sustained rise in Euro (EUR) vs US Dollar (USD) seems unlikely; it is more likely to consolidate in a 1.0870/1.0950 range.

Further sustained rise in Euro (EUR) vs US Dollar (USD) seems unlikely; it is more likely to consolidate in a 1.0870/1.0950 range. In the longer run, technical target at 1.0945 exceeded; deeply overbought conditions suggest while further gains are possible, the potential for additional upside may be limited, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. 0 Deeply overbought conditions suggest while further gains are possible 24-HOUR VIEW: "We did not anticipate the strong surge in EUR that sent it to a high of 1.0947 (we were expecting sideways trading). The advance is deeply overbought, and negative momentum divergence is tentatively forming. To put it another way, further sustained rise in EUR seems unlikely. Today, EUR is more likely to consolidate its gains and trade in a 1.0870/1.0950 range." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have expected a strong EUR since early last week. Yesterday (11 Mar, spot at 1.0835), we highlighted that 'upward momentum is showing signs of slowing, and EUR must push higher soon, or the chance of it reaching 1.0945 will decrease quickly.' EUR then soared, slightly exceeding the technical target of 1.0945 (high has been 1.0947). While the uptrend remains intact for now, it is worth noting that conditions are very deeply overbought. This suggests that while further gains are possible, the potential for additional upside may be limited. Additionally, the 1.1100 level, as a key psychological resistance, may not be easy to break. On the downside, a breach of 1.0805 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.0720 yesterday) would indicate the start of a consolidation or pullback."

10:33 WTI advances to near $66.50, upside seems limited due to rising US growth concerns
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price gains ground for the second successive day, trading $66.40 during the European hours on Wednesday.

10:24 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Wednesday, early in the European session.

10:21 EUR: Still rather expensive – ING
EUR/USD received some extra support yesterday from the news that Ukraine agreed to a 30-day truce with Russia, but has retreated from the 1.095 highs to just under 1.090 as the dollar started to recover and the EU announced €26bn worth of retaliatory tariffs against the US.

EUR/USD received some extra support yesterday from the news that Ukraine agreed to a 30-day truce with Russia, but has retreated from the 1.095 highs to just under 1.090 as the dollar started to recover and the EU announced €26bn worth of retaliatory tariffs against the US. Markets had already largely priced in a Ukraine-Russia peace deal, and while another small leg higher in EUR/USD may be due if and when Russia agrees to the terms of the truce, the pair can face greater upside resistance on the back of stretched technicals, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. A drop to 1.080 is more likely than a rally to 1.10 "Despite the correction overnight, EUR/USD remains around 1.5% overvalued, according to our short-term fair value model. Also, the latest CFTC data show positioning has moved back to neutral territory. Speculative net-shorts accounted for only 1.5% of open interest as of 4 March, down from 11% at the end of February." "With US core CPI potentially capping dovish sentiment on the Fed today, the two-year EUR:USD swap rate gap may struggle to tighten beyond the -140bp level (now -144bp), and may instead face some rewidening that would make EUR/USD even more expensive at current levels. There is also a risk that either ECB President Christine Lagarde or any of the many other ECB speakers today will sound slightly more dovish after the EU’s retaliatory tariff announcement." "At this stage, we think a drop to 1.080 is more likely than a rally to 1.10 in EUR/USD."

10:09 Pound Sterling holds onto gains against US Dollar ahead of US inflation data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) stays firm near the four-month high of 1.2965 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling clings to gains near 1.2950 against the US Dollar ahead of the US CPI data for February on Wednesday.US President Trump’s tariff policies continue to cap investors' risk appetite.The BoE is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the monetary policy meeting next week.The Pound Sterling (GBP) stays firm near the four-month high of 1.2965 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session. The GBP/USD pair clings to gains while the US Dollar gauges temporary support ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US inflation data will significantly influence market speculation for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could maintain “policy restraint for longer if inflation progress stalls”. Economists expect year-over-year headline inflation to have decelerated to 2.9% from 3% in January. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – is estimated to have risen by 3.2% from the prior release of 3.3%. Both headline and core CPI are expected to have grown at a slower pace of 0.3% on a monthly basis. Signs of easing inflationary pressures would boost expectations that the Fed could cut interest rates in the May policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 42% chance that the central bank will cut interest rates in May, an increase from 10.4% seen a month ago. On the contrary, sticky figures would diminish them. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling stabilizes ahead of UK monthly GDP The Pound Sterling trades quietly against its major peers on Wednesday as investors look for fresh cues about next week’s Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting. Traders are confident that the BoE will keep interest rates steady at 4.5% as a slew of officials have guided a ‘gradual and cautionary’ monetary easing approach. Last week, four BoE policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey, guided a gradual path for “unwinding monetary policy restrictiveness” as the inflation persistence is less likely to fade “on its own accord”. Contrary to them, BoE member Catherine Mann supports a swift policy-easing approach due to “substantial volatility” coming from financial markets, especially from “cross-border spillovers”. This week, investors will focus on the United Kingdom's (UK) monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Industrial and Manufacturing Production data for January, which will be released on Friday. The UK economy is expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 0.1%, compared to the 0.4% economic expansion seen in December. Monthly factory data is estimated to have declined in the first month of 2025. On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda continues to keep investors on their toes across the globe. Trump threatened to double tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from Canada but scrapped his decision after Canada’s Ontario Premier, Doug Ford, agreed to roll back a 25% surcharge levied on electricity exported to the US. Comments from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in an interview with CBS on Tuesday indicated that Trump’s tariff is more a negotiation tactic to have the upper hand while closing deals with his trading partners. “Let the dealmaker make his deals,” Lutnick said. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling sees more upside above 1.2965 The Pound Sterling aims to extend its upside above the four-month high of 1.2965 against the US Dollar posted on Tuesday. The long-term outlook of the GBP/USD pair has turned bullish as it holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.2695. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60.00, suggesting a strong bullish momentum. Looking down, the 50% Fibo retracement at 1.2767 and the 38.2% Fibo retracement at 1.2608 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the psychological 1.3000 level will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:00 Spain Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 4% to 2.2% in January
Spain Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 4% to 2.2% in January

09:51 EUR/GBP holds losses near 0.8450 due to cautious tone surrounding the BoE policy outlook
EUR/GBP halts its seven-day winning streak, trading around 0.8430 during the European hours on Wednesday.

09:50 Japan’s Hayashi: I would like to have close communication with the US over auto tariffs
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi noted on Wednesday that “I would like to have close communication with the US over auto tariffs.” Additional quotes It's regrettable that the US went ahead with steel and aluminum tariff despite our request for exemption.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi noted on Wednesday that “I would like to have close communication with the US over auto tariffs.” Additional quotes It's regrettable that the US went ahead with steel and aluminum tariff despite our request for exemption. The measure could have a major impact on Japan-US economic relations and the multilateral trade system. Separately, China's Foreign Ministry warned on US President Donald Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs, saying that “if the US insists on suppressing China, China must resolutely counter it.” Market reaction USD/JPY keeps pushing higher, tracking a broad US Dollar rebound, currently trading 0.55% higher on the day at 148.55.

09:15 Forex Today: Markets take a break from tariff headlines, focus on BoC and US inflation
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 12: Following a volatile American session that was dominated by tariff headlines on Tuesday, financial markets quiet down early Wednesday.

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The US economic calendar will feature Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February. Later in the day, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce monetary policy decisions. US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he will impose an additional 25% tariff, in addition to the previously announced 25%, on steel and aluminum imports from Canada. In response, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced that they will place a 25% surcharge on the electricity that they supply to more than 1 million homes in the US. Trump backed off following this development and the White House said that only the previously planned 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum products from Canada and all other countries will go into effect with no exceptions or exemptions. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.51% 0.03% 0.31% 0.72% 0.44% 0.35% 0.32% EUR 0.51% 0.50% 0.81% 1.25% 1.05% 0.84% 0.72% GBP -0.03% -0.50% 0.27% 0.71% 0.54% 0.27% 0.28% JPY -0.31% -0.81% -0.27% 0.42% 0.20% -0.04% 0.09% CAD -0.72% -1.25% -0.71% -0.42% -0.33% -0.38% -0.43% AUD -0.44% -1.05% -0.54% -0.20% 0.33% -0.20% -0.27% NZD -0.35% -0.84% -0.27% 0.04% 0.38% 0.20% 0.06% CHF -0.32% -0.72% -0.28% -0.09% 0.43% 0.27% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Early Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the European Union (EU) has launched 'swift and proportionate countermeasures' on US imports in response to steel tariffs. Similarly, UK Trade Minister Jonathan Reynolds said that it is disappointing that the US has decided to go ahead with global tariffs on steel and aluminum, adding that they will keep all options on the table and won't hesitate to respond in the national interest. Meanwhile, Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese noted that they will not impose reciprocal tariffs on the US, explaining that retaliatory measures would only increase costs for Australian consumers and fuel inflation. The US Dollar (USD) came under selling pressure in the early American session on Tuesday and the USD Index dropped to its weakest level since mid-October near 103.20. Early Wednesday, the USD Index stages a rebound and trades in positive territory above 103.50. US stock index futures also cling to modest gains in the European morning after Wall Street's main indexes registered losses on Tuesday. After fluctuating wildly in the second half of the day, USD/CAD closed virtually unchanged on Tuesday. The pair edges higher on Wednesday and trades above 1.4450. The BoC is widely expected to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% after the March meeting.EUR/USD gathered bullish momentum and climbed to its highest level in five months near 1.0950 on Tuesday. The pair corrects lower on Wednesday and trades below 1.0900 in the European morning.GBP/USD gained more than 0.5% on Tuesday and rose above 1.2950. Pressured by the USD recovery early Wednesday, the pair retreats toward 1.2900.USD/JPY holds its ground and rises toward 148.50 after posting modest gains on Tuesday. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday that it is natural for long-term rates to shift in line with the market view on the outlook for short-term policy rates. Following Monday's decline, Gold rebounded on Tuesday and gained nearly 1% on the day. XAU/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum but manages to hold above $2,900 on Wednesday. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

09:00 Turkey Current Account Balance up to $-3.795B in January from previous $-4.65B
Turkey Current Account Balance up to $-3.795B in January from previous $-4.65B

08:54 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Key support level emerges near 103.00, oversold RSI condition eyed
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, recovers to near 103.55 after bouncing off four-month lows around 103.20.

08:47 BoJ’s Ueda: Very worried about uncertainty over overseas economy, prices
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday that he is “very worried about uncertainty over overseas economy, prices.” Additional quotes Underlying inflation still remains below 2%.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday that he is “very worried about uncertainty over overseas economy, prices.” Additional quotes Underlying inflation still remains below 2%. BoJ ready to conduct bond-buying operation nimbly in exceptional cases when long-term rates make irregular moves. Market reaction USD/JPY is holding gains above 148.00 following Ueda’s cautious remarks, adding 0.23% on a daily basis.

08:06 UK’s Reynolds: Negotiating a wider economic agreement to eliminate additional tariffs.
UK Trade Minister Jonathan Reynolds said on Wednesday that they are “negotiating a wider economic agreement to eliminate additional tariffs.” Further comments It's disappointing that the US has imposed global tariffs on steel and aluminum.

07:58 EC President von der Leyen: EU responds with countermeasures to US tariffs on steel
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday that the European Union (EU) has launched 'swift and proportionate countermeasures' on US imports in the EU in response to steel tariffs.

07:35 USD/CHF strengthens to near 0.8850 ahead of US CPI inflation release
The USD/CHF pair trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day near 0.8840 during the early European session on Wednesday.

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Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the USD's value relative to its most significant trading partners' currencies, rebounds to around 103.60 after bouncing off the multi-month lows near 103.20. Nonetheless, the Greenback faces some headwinds amid concerns mounted over a US slowdown and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth.

Market players will take more cues from the US CPI release on Wednesday. The headline CPI is expected to show an increase of 0.3% MoM in February. On an annual basis, headline inflation is forecast to show an increase of 2.9%, while core CPI is estimated to show a rise of 3.2% during the same reported period.

Houthi spokesman said late Tuesday that they will attack any Israeli ship that violates the group's ban on Israeli ships passing through the Red and Arabian Seas, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the Gulf of Aden, effective immediately. Heightened safe-haven demand amid growing concerns over global economic conditions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the Swiss Franc (CHF) and create a headwind for USD/CHF. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:24 USD/MXN Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable while below 100-day SMA; US CPI awaited
The USD/MXN pair struggles for a firm intraday direction on Wednesday and oscillates in a narrow trading band, around the 20.2790-20.2795 region through the Asian session.

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Spot prices, meanwhile, remain close to the lowest level since January 24 touched on Monday, and seem vulnerable to slide further amid the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD). Investors now seem convinced that a tariff-driven slowdown in the US economic activity and signs of a cooling US labor market might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates several times this year. This, in turn, has been a key factor behind the recent USD downfall to its lowest level since mid-October set on Tuesday. The USD bears, however, seem reluctant to place fresh bets ahead of the release of the US consumer inflation figures, which, in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the USD/MXN pair. From a technical perspective, last week's breakdown and acceptance below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since May 2024 favors the USD/MXN bears. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside. Hence, any intraday move-up might be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 20.3825-20.3830 region, or the 100-day SMA support breakpoint. However, some follow-through buying beyond the weekly top, around the 20.4040 area, might prompt some short-covering move and lift the USD/MXN pair to the 20.5040 area en route to the next relevant hurdle near the 20.6060-20.6070 region. The momentum could extend further towards the 20.7035-20.7040 resistance before spot prices eventually aim to challenge the monthly swing high, around the 21.0000 round-figure mark. On the flip side, weakness below the 20.2540-20.2535 area could find some support near the 20.1810 region, or the monthly low touched on Monday. This is followed by the year-to-date through, around the 20.1345 zone, below which the USD/MXN pair could accelerate the fall towards the 20.0715 intermediate support en route to the December 2024 swing low, around the 20.0215 region. USD/MXN daily chart Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

06:54 EUR/JPY climbs above 161.50 amid a slight uptick in global risk sentiment
EUR/JPY continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, trading around 161.60 during Wednesday’s Asian session.

06:50 Gold price consolidates near weekly high; looks to US CPI for fresh impetus
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades near the weekly high during the Asian session on Wednesday and looks to build on the previous day's goodish rebound from the $2,880 region, or a one-week low.

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A modest USD bounce from a multi-month low and a positive risk tone cap the precious metal.Trade war fears and Fed rate cut bets support the XAU/USD pair ahead of the US CPI report. Gold price (XAU/USD) trades near the weekly high during the Asian session on Wednesday and looks to build on the previous day's goodish rebound from the $2,880 region, or a one-week low. Investors remain worried about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor that continues to underpin the safe-haven bullion. Moreover, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates several times this year amid concerns about a tariff-driven slowdown in the US economic activity lend additional support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) edges higher and recovers a part of the overnight losses to its lowest level since mid-October amid some repositioning trade ahead of the crucial US consumer inflation figures. Adding to this, the optimism over the passage of the six-month US funding bills, Ukraine's acceptance of the US proposal for a ceasefire with Russia, and a positive risk tone might cap gains for the Gold price. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bullish traders and supports prospects for a further appreciating move, suggesting that any corrective pullback might be seen as a buying opportunity. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price traders opt to wait for the US inflation figures before placing fresh bets US President Donald Trump upped the ante in a trade war and said on Tuesday that he would double planned tariff increases on steel and aluminum coming from Canada to 50%, providing a strong boost to the safe-haven Gold price. Trump, however, reversed course in response to Ontario Premier Doug Ford's announcement to suspend a 25% surcharge on electricity sold to the US. The lower house of Congress narrowly passed a Republican spending bill that would avoid a government shutdown on March 14 and keep the US government open until September, further boosting investors' confidence. The bill now heads to the Senate and will need the support of at least seven Democrats to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold before sending it to Trump for his signature. Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the US proposal for an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire with Russia after bilateral talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The US would now take the offer to Russia, which has not yet responded to the proposal. The development, however, remains supportive of a turnaround in the global risk sentiment and might act as a headwind for the precious metal. Over the weekend, Trump declined to rule out the possibility of a recession in the US and flagged some economic turbulence on the back of his policy agenda. This, along with signs of a cooling US labor market, continues to fuel speculations that the Federal Reserve would soon resume its rate-cutting cycle. In fact, traders are pricing in three rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of this year. This might keep a lid on any meaningful US Dollar recovery from its lowest level since mid-October touched on Tuesday and favors the XAU/USD bulls. Traders, however, might opt to wait on the sidelines and look forward to the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which might influence the Fed's rate-cut path and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. Gold price needs to break and stay above $2,928-2,930 for a sustained upward move From a technical perspective, bulls might need to wait for a move beyond the $2,928-2,930 hurdle before positioning for further gains. The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the Gold price back towards the all-time peak, around the $2,956 area touched on February 24. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and pave the way for the resumption of the recent well-established uptrend amid still positive oscillators on the daily chart. On the flip side, weakness below the $2,900 mark might now find some support near the $2,880 region, or the weekly low. This is followed by the $2,860 region, below which the Gold price could accelerate the slide towards the late February swing low, around the $2,833-2,832 region, before eventually dropping to the $2,800 mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:36 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 8,171.77 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 8,170.87 it cost on Tuesday. The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 95,313.88 per tola from INR 95,303.41 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,171.77 10 Grams 81,717.66 Tola 95,313.88 Troy Ounce 254,170.50 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily digest market movers: Gold price unfazed by high US yields The US 10-year Treasury bond yield recovers and edges up six basis points to 4.282% as traders eye the Fed’s interest rate cuts. US real yields, as measured by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield that correlates inversely to Gold prices, climb five-and-a-half basis points to 1.963%, a headwind for the non-yielding metal. The Atlanta Fed GDP Now model predicts the first quarter of 2025 at -2.4%, which would be the first negative print since the COVID-19 pandemic. The US JOLTS report showed that job openings rose to 7.740 million in January, up from 7.508 million, surpassing expectations of 7.63 million, signaling continued strength in the labor market. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) continues to purchase Gold, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). The PBoC increased its holdings by 10 tonnes in the first two months of 2025. However, the largest buyer was the National Bank of Poland (NBP), which increased its reserve by 29 tonnes, its largest purchase since June 2019, when it bought 95 tonnes. Money market traders had priced in 77.5 basis points of easing in 2025, up from 74 bps last Friday, via data from Prime Market Terminal. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:30 EUR/USD declines to near 1.0900 on renewed US Dollar demand, US CPI data looms
The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 1.0900, snapping the three-day winning streak during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

05:53 USD/CAD holds gains near 1.4450 ahead of US CPI data, BoC interest rate decision
USD/CAD maintains its gains after a previous session of losses, trading around 1.4440 during Asian hours on Wednesday.

05:07 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hovers near $33.00, four-month highs
Silver price (XAG/USD) loses ground after registering gains in the previous session, trading around $32.80 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

05:02 GBP/USD trades with negative bias below mid-1.2900s, downside seems limited ahead of US CPI
The GBP/USD pair edges lower during the Asian session on Wednesday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong move up to over a four-month peak, around the 1.2965 area.

05:00 US CPI data set to show inflation edged lower in February as markets gauge Fed’s rate cut path
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to publish the high-impact Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for February on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Consumer Price Index is forecast to rise 2.9% YoY in February.The core CPI inflation is seen a tad lower at 3.2% last month.The inflation data could impact the US Dollar’s value and the Fed’s cautious policy stance.The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to publish the high-impact Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for February on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The CPI figures could notably impact the US Dollar (USD) and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious monetary policy stance. What to expect in the next CPI data report? As measured by CPI, inflation in the US is set to rise at an annual pace of 2.9% in February, down slightly from 3.0% reported in January. Core CPI inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is expected to ease to 3.2% in the same period from a year earlier, compared to a 3.3% growth in January. On a monthly basis, a 0.3% increase is projected for the headline CPI and the core CPI inflation figures. Previewing the report, analysts at TD Securities noted: “We expect core CPI inflation to cool down in February following the January jump to 0.45%, as price resets came in firmer than expected in the services segment. We look for slowing in both the goods and services segments, with owners' equivalent rent (OER) inflation dropping to a 3-month low.” “On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, headline and core CPI inflation are likely to drop by a tenth each to 2.9% and 3.2%, respectively,” TDS analysts said. How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect EUR/USD? Against mounting US economic slowdown concerns and President Donald Trump-led global tariff war, markets are now pricing in 85 basis points (bps) of easing from the Fed this year, compared to 75 bps on Monday, per the LSEG Fed interest rate probabilities. The recent slew of US data releases has been quite discouraging, especially with the February Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday showing that the US economy added 151,000 jobs in February, compared with an expected rise of 160,000 and a previous downward revision of 125,000. The Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.1% versus expectations of 4%. The Labor Force Participation Rate ticked a tad lower to 62.4% in the same period from January’s 62.6%. On the other hand, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Friday that the US central bank would take a cautious approach to monetary policy easing, adding that the economy currently "continues to be in a good place". Therefore, stakes are high heading into the US CPI showdown as the inflation report could shed fresh light on the direction of the Fed’s interest rates and the USD. A bigger-than-expected cooldown in the annual headline and core inflation prints could shake off concerns over risks to the disinflation path, compelling Fed to resume rate cuts while exacerbating the Greenback’s pain. Conversely, the US dollar would find renewed demand if the US CPI data surprises the upside. This scenario would justify the Fed’s prudence on inflation and policy outlooks, reviving hawkish Fed expectations. Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD and explains: “EUR/USD’s near-term technical picture points to a likely buyer exhaustion as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart sits within the overbought territory above 70. However, any pullback could be quickly bought into as a 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 100-day SMA Bull Cross remains in play.” “EUR/USD needs acceptance above the November 6 2024 high of 1.0937 to extend the uptrend toward the 1.1000 psychological level. The next relevant bullish targe is seen at the 1.1050 mark. Conversely, the immediate support is at the 200-day SMA at 1.0721, below which the March 5 low of 1.0602 will be tested. The 21-day SMA at 1.0546 will be buyers' last defence.” Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Mar 12, 2025 12:30 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 2.9%Previous: 3%Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

04:58 Japanese Yen retreats further from multi-month high set against USD on Tuesday
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues losing ground against its American counterpart for the second straight day on Wednesday and moves away from the highest level since October touched the previous day.

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues losing ground against its American counterpart for the second straight day on Wednesday and moves away from the highest level since October touched the previous day. Concerns that US President Donald Trump could impose fresh tariffs on Japan and a slight improvement in the global risk sentiment turn out to be key factors undermining the safe-haven JPY. Any meaningful JPY depreciation, however, still seems elusive in the wake of hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations. Data released earlier today showed that Japan's annual wholesale inflation – Producer Price Index (PPI) – rose 4.0% in February, underscoring broadening inflationary pressure. Adding to this, hopes that bumper wage hikes seen last year will continue this year remain supportive of the growing market acceptance that the BoJ will hike interest rates further. This, along with the recent sharp narrowing of rate differentials between Japan and other countries should act as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY and help limit losses. Apart from this, persistent worries about the potential economic fallout from Trump's trade policies and a global trade war should offer support to the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, languishes near a multi-month low amid bets that a tariff-driven slowdown in the US would force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower borrowing costs multiple times this year. This should further contribute to capping the upside for the USD/JPY pair as traders keenly await the release of the US consumer inflation figures. Japanese Yen is pressured by rising trade tensions; downside seems cushioned amid BoJ rate hike bets US President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum from Canada, though he reversed course after Ontario paused surcharges on electricity to US customers. Earlier, Japan’s Trade Minister Yoji Muto said that he has failed to win assurances from US officials that Japan will be exempt from steel tariffs, which take effect on Wednesday. The lower house of Congress narrowly passed a Republican spending bill that would avoid a government shutdown on March 14 and keep the US government open until September. The bill now heads to the Senate and will need the support of at least seven Democrats to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold before being sent to Trump for his signature. Data published by the Bank of Japan this Wednesday showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) slowed to a 4.0% year-on-year rate in February from 4.2% in the previous month. Given that consumer inflation in Japan has exceeded the central bank's target for nearly three years, the latest PPI supports prospects for further monetary policy tightening by the BoJ. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond remains close to its highest level since October 2008 touched on Monday. In contrast, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield remains close to a multi-month low touched earlier this March amid concerns about a tariff-driven US economic slowdown and bets for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In fact, market participants are now pricing in about three rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the Fed by the end of this year. The bets were lifted by Friday's weaker US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which pointed to signs of a cooling US labor market. This keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level since mid-October and caps the upside for the USD/JPY pair. Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for the release of the US consumer inflation figures before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. The crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to the currency pair. USD/JPY might attract fresh sellers and remain capped below the 148.60-148.70 support breakpoint From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside and any further move up is likely to remain capped near the 148.60-148.70 horizontal support breakpoint. However, some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the 149.00 mark, might trigger a short-covering rally towards the 149.70-149.75 intermediate resistance en route to the 150.00 psychological mark. On the flip side, the 147.25 area now seems to act as immediate support ahead of the 147.00 round figure and the 146.55-146.50 zone, or a multi-month trough touched on Tuesday. A break below the latter might turn the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall toward the 146.00 round figure. The downward trajectory could eventually drag spot prices to the 145.00 psychological mark with some intermediate support near the 145.40-145.35 zone. Economic Indicator Producer Price Index (YoY) The Producer Price Index released by the Bank of Japan is a measure of prices for goods purchased by domestic corporates in Japan. The PPI is correlated with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and is a way to measure changes in manufacturing cost and inflation in Japan. A high reading is seen as anticipatory of a rate hike and is positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish). Read more. Last release: Tue Mar 11, 2025 23:50 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 4%Consensus: 4%Previous: 4.2%Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

04:28 USD/INR weakens as traders await Indian/US CPI inflation releases
The Indian Rupee (INR) rebounds on Wednesday. The potential foreign exchange intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and strong Asian currencies, especially the offshore Chinese Yuan provide some support to the Indian currency.

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Nonetheless, the unabated outflows of foreign funds into Indian equities could exert some selling pressure on the local currency. Foreign investors have withdrawn almost $15 billion from Indian shares so far this year, putting outflows on track to surpass the record $17 billion registered in 2022.

Additionally, a recovery in crude oil prices could undermine the Indian Rupee. It’s worth noting that India is the world's third-largest oil consumer and higher crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the INR value. Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor the Indian and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reports for February, which are due later on Wednesday. Indian Rupee gains ground amid a weaker US Dollar RBI was the net seller of over $36 billion between June and December to support the Indian Rupee, according to government data on Tuesday. Trump reversed his decision to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, which he announced late Tuesday. The US JOLTS report showed that job openings rose to 7.740 million in January, up from 7.508 million, surpassing expectations of 7.63 million. Financial markets have priced in 75 basis points (bps) of rate cuts from the Fed this year, LSEG data show, with a rate cut fully priced in for June. USD/INR maintains a constructive outlook despite consolidation in the near term The Indian Rupee trades on a stronger note on the day. The bullish trend of the USD/INR pair remains in play as the price is above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located above the midline near 56.15.

The immediate resistance level is seen at 87.53, the high of February 28. Sustained buying above this level could pave the way to an all-time high near 88.00, en route to 88.50.

On the flip side, the low of March 6 at 86.86 acts as the first downside target for the pair. Any follow-through selling could open the door for a deeper drop toward 86.48, the low of February 21, followed by 86.14, the low of January 27. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

04:05 NZD/USD remains subdued near 0.5700 ahead of US CPI data
NZD/USD edges lower after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 0.5710 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

03:38 PM Albanese: Retaliatory measures would only increase costs for Australian consumers and fuel inflation
Australia’s Prime Minister (PM) Albanese said on Wednesday that “retaliatory measures would only increase costs for Australian consumers and fuel inflation.” PM Albanese confirmed that “Australia will not impose reciprocal tariffs on the United States (US).” His comments come after US President Donald Trump proceeded with 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminium.

Australia’s Prime Minister (PM) Anthony Albanese said on Wednesday that “retaliatory measures would only increase costs for Australian consumers and fuel inflation.” PM Albanese confirmed that “Australia will not impose reciprocal tariffs on the United States (US).” His comments come after US President Donald Trump proceeded with 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminium.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1696 vs. 7.1741 previous
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1696 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1741 and 7.2324 Reuters estimates.

03:13 Australian Dollar weakens due to increased risk aversion
The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, weighed down by broad risk aversion.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar struggles amid broad risk aversion and ongoing economic concerns in China.Australia’s strong economic data last week lowered expectations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia.The US Dollar struggled amid growing concerns over a potential US economic slowdown.The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, weighed down by broad risk aversion. Concerns intensified due to policy shifts by US President Donald Trump, particularly tariffs that increased the likelihood of a prolonged trade war. The AUD also faces pressure from ongoing economic uncertainties and persistent deflationary risks in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, as traders await key policy announcements from Beijing. Market participants remain focused on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook, especially after last week’s strong economic data reduced expectations of further rate cuts. Economic growth surpassed forecasts, marking its first acceleration in over a year. The latest RBA Meeting Minutes signaled a cautious stance on monetary policy, emphasizing that February’s rate cut does not indicate a commitment to continued easing. Investors are now turning their attention to February’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Wednesday for further insights into inflation trends. With the Federal Reserve in its blackout period ahead of the March 19 meeting, central bank commentary will be scarce this week. Australian Dollar struggles as escalating global trade tensions weigh on market sentiment The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar against six major currencies, inches higher and is hovering around 103.50 at the time of writing. However, the Greenback faced challenges due to the likelihood of a US economic slowdown. President Trump reversed his decision to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, a move he announced late Tuesday. However, the White House confirmed to Reuters that new 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum will still take effect on Wednesday, impacting allies and key US suppliers, including Canada and Mexico. Trump characterized the economy as being in a "transition period," hinting at a potential slowdown. Investors took his remarks as an early signal of possible economic turbulence in the near future. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reassured markets that the central bank sees no immediate need to adjust monetary policy despite rising uncertainties. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed this sentiment, noting that increasing business uncertainty could dampen demand but does not justify an interest rate change. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted that global trade uncertainty is at a 50-year high. Hauser warned that uncertainty stemming from US President Donald Trump's tariffs could prompt businesses and households to delay planning and investment, potentially weighing on economic growth. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter, that trade and other negotiations between the US and China remain at a deadlock. Chinese officials state that the US has not provided clear steps regarding fentanyl measures needed for tariff relief. Meanwhile, a source familiar with White House discussions indicated that no plans are currently underway for an in-person meeting between the two leaders. China announced on Saturday that it will impose a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes, and peas, along with a 25% levy on aquatic products and pork from Canada. The move comes as retaliation against tariffs introduced by Canada in October, escalating trade tensions. This marks a new front in a broader trade conflict driven by US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. The tariffs are set to take effect on March 20. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar tests nine-day barrier near 0.6300 The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6290 on Wednesday, with technical analysis of the daily chart showing the pair remaining below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling weakening short-term momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly below 50, reinforcing a bearish bias. On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could navigate the region around the five-week low of 0.6187, recorded on March 5. The AUD/USD pair tests immediate resistance at a nine-day EMA of 0.6294, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6306. A break above this level could strengthen short-term momentum, potentially pushing the pair toward the three-month high of 0.6408, last reached on February 21. AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.11% 0.12% 0.09% -0.00% 0.10% 0.09% 0.09% EUR -0.11% -0.00% -0.06% -0.12% -0.03% -0.04% -0.03% GBP -0.12% 0.00% -0.04% -0.11% -0.02% -0.02% -0.03% JPY -0.09% 0.06% 0.04% -0.08% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% CAD 0.00% 0.12% 0.11% 0.08% 0.10% 0.09% 0.09% AUD -0.10% 0.03% 0.02% -0.02% -0.10% 0.00% 0.00% NZD -0.09% 0.04% 0.02% -0.01% -0.09% -0.00% -0.00% CHF -0.09% 0.03% 0.03% -0.01% -0.09% -0.00% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:07 Japan firms set to offer strong wage hikes for third straight year
Japan’s largest companies are expected to offer substantial wage hikes for a third consecutive year, helping workers cope with inflation and retain staff amid labour shortages, per Reuters.

02:54 WTI recovers above $66.00 on softer US Dollar
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $66.25 during the early Asian session on Wednesday.

02:18 BoJ's Ueda: Higher long-term rates reflecting market views on economy
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that it is natural for long-term rates to shift in line with the market view on the outlook for short-term policy rates.

01:59 Ukraine agrees to 30-day ceasefire if Russia accepts
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said late Tuesday that Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire proposed by the United States if Russia accepts the plan, following critical peace talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia, per CNN.

01:51 Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ) came in at -2.4, below expectations (6.5) in 1Q
Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ) came in at -2.4, below expectations (6.5) in 1Q

01:50 Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.1%) in February: Actual (0%)
Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.1%) in February: Actual (0%)

01:50 Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (4%) in February
Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (4%) in February

01:48 Canada warns of oil export restrictions amid escalating trade tensions with US
Canada’s Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said late Tuesday that the country may impose non-tariff measures, including restrictions on oil exports to the United States if trade tensions with Washington escalate further.

01:33 EUR/USD rises despite trade war risks as markets pivot to US CPI inflation data
EUR/USD bidders found the gas pedal on Tuesday, bolstering Fiber further and sending the pair back into the 1.0950 level, albeit briefly.

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The pair tested into fresh 22-week highs as Euro bulls continue to press further into recovery territory. US data remains the focal point for fx traders this week. This week, EU economic data is notably sparse; however, significant US data releases are scheduled back-to-back for most of the week. The US JOLTS job openings data was a bit stronger than anticipated, offering some stability to shaken markets. Job postings rose to 7.74M in January, exceeding the forecast of 7.63M and up from December’s revised figure of 7.51M, adjusted down from 7.6M. Related news US to kick off global 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports on Wednesday US President Donald Trump pivots on tariff threats in record time Ontario PM Ford agrees to suspend energy levies on US after Lutnick agrees to trade talks On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for February takes center stage. Following an unexpected rise in consumer-level inflation in January, which dashed hopes for a swift return to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025, markets are largely anticipating a lower February figure. Headline CPI inflation is projected to decrease to 2.9%, down from 3.0% year-over-year. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report is expected on Thursday. While there's hope for a lessening inflation trend in consumer prices, business-level inflation is likely to remain persistently high, with core PPI inflation expected to maintain a steady rate of 3.6% year-over-year. Friday will conclude with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March, along with the UoM’s Consumer Inflation Expectations. The UoM sentiment index is predicted to decline slightly to 63.4 from 64.7, reflecting a weakening economic outlook amid Donald Trump’s efforts to ignite a global trade war simultaneously with multiple countries. EUR/USD price forecast EUR/USD has closed flat or higher for all but one of the last six consecutive trading session, rising 5.5% in the process. Fiber has climbed nearly 7.6% bottom-to-top from the last major swing low near 1.0175, with bulls easily snapping the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in the process. EUR/USD is now running aground of technical resistance just north of the 1.0900 handle, a technical region that flummoxed Euro bulls the last time around back in October and November of last year. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

01:31 Houthi terrorists vow to resume attacks on Israeli ships
A Houthi spokesman said late Tuesday that they will attack any Israeli ship that violates the group's ban on Israeli ships passing through the Red and Arabian seas, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the Gulf of Aden, effective immediately.

01:04 GBP/USD shrugs off tariff fears as Pound continues to recover ground
GBP/USD extended its recent bullish rally on Tuesday, shrugging off ongoing trade war concerns that are weighing down American market centers.

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Cable rose a little over one-half of one percent, clipping into the 1.2950 level for the first time in 18 weeks. US data remains the focal point for GBP/USD traders. UK economic data remains extremely limited on the data docket this week, but key US data releases are lined up one after another throughout most of this week. The US JOLTS job openings data was a bit stronger than anticipated, offering some stability to shaken markets. Job postings rose to 7.74M in January, exceeding the forecast of 7.63M and up from December’s revised figure of 7.51M, adjusted down from 7.6M. Related news US to kick off global 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports on Wednesday US President Donald Trump pivots on tariff threats in record time Ontario PM Ford agrees to suspend energy levies on US after Lutnick agrees to trade talks US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation metrics for February are front-and-center on Wednesday. Markets are overwhelmingly hoping for a lower print for February after an unexpected uptick in consumer-level inflation in January shattered hopes for a quick return to a rate cutting schedule from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025. Headline CPI inflation is expected to tick down to 2.9% from 3.0% YoY. US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation is slated for Thursday. While markets are hoping for an easing inflation outlook in consumer inflation, business-level inflation is expected to remain stubbornly high with core PPI inflation forecast to hold steady at 3.6% YoY. Friday will close out with University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index figures for March, as well as the UoM’s Consumer Inflation Expectations. The UoM sentiment index is forecast to tick down slightly to 63.4 from 64.7 as the US’s economic outlook deteriorates in the face of Donald Trump’s insistence on trying to spark a global trade war with everybody at the same time. GBP/USD price forecast GBP/USD is testing into its second straight week of gains as the pair tests into fresh 18-week highs near 1.2950. The 1.3000 major price handle could cap off any further bullish gains as the key handle last served as a significant consolidation level in October and November of 2024. For now, momentum is squarely in the hands of bidders, but technical oscillators have been pinned in overbought territory since January, and a quick turnaround could be on the cards soon. GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

01:02 USD/CAD loses ground below 1.4450 ahead of US CPI data, BoC rate decision
The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory around 1.4430 during the late American session on Tuesday.

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Trump reversed his decision to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, which he announced late Tuesday. The White House confirmed to Reuters that new 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum will still go into effect on Wednesday, including against allies and major US suppliers Canada and Mexico.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the USD's value relative to its most significant trading partners' currencies, declines to new multi-month lows near 103.20 amid the likelihood of a US economic slowdown. The US February CPI inflation report will be in the spotlight on Wednesday. The headline CPI inflation is expected to cool down in February after accelerating in January. If the report shows a softer-than-expected outcome, this could exert some selling pressure on the Greenback against the CAD in the near term. On the Loonie front, financial markets put the odds of another quarter-point rate cut this week at around 80%, according to LSEG data. That would bring the policy rate to 2.75% from 3.0%. Investors expect at least two further reductions by the end of 2025. The rising speculation of further BoC rate reductions could undermine the CAD and help limit the pair’s losses. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

01:00 South Korea Unemployment Rate fell from previous 2.9% to 2.7% in February
South Korea Unemployment Rate fell from previous 2.9% to 2.7% in February

00:11 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds from YTD lows, bulls target 148.00
The USD/JPY rises as trade tensions loom due to back-and-forth tariff rhetoric between Canada and the United States (US), which initially weighed on the US Dollar.

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Forex News Timeline

23:39 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Extends recovery, indicators remain in negative territory The AUD/JPY pair extended its recovery on Wednesday ahead of the Asian session, rising for the second straight day and trading near the 93.75 zone.

23:34 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD shines above $33.00 as US inflation dips Silver price rallied to three-week highs as it cleared the $33.00 handle on Wednesday, posting gains of over 0.90%, unfazed by a jump in US Treasury bond yields and a strong US Dollar.

22:40 Gold price defies strong US Dollar amid soft US CPI report Gold price rises late in the North American session, unfazed by high US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US Dollar on Wednesday.

22:27 AUD/USD gains after US CPI data The AUD/USD pair added to Tuesday’s uptick and trespassed the 0.6300 hurdle despite a decent rebound in the Greenback.

21:25 Forex Today: US inflation and jobs data take centre stage Finally, the Greenback managed to regain some composure and clocked acceptable gains following multi-month lows.

20:35 Canadian Dollar regains lost ground after BoC rate cut as tariff fears dull to a simmer The Canadian Dollar (CAD) recovered some ground on Wednesday, bolstered by a general easing in Greenback market flows.

20:17 US Dollar holds steady after softer CPI data, markets weigh implications The US Dollar steadies on Wednesday, with DXY hovering around 103.50 as traders digest the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

20:00 United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $-307B below forecasts ($-303.2B) in February United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $-307B below forecasts ($-303.2B) in February

19:07 United States 10-Year Note Auction dipped from previous 4.632% to 4.31% United States 10-Year Note Auction dipped from previous 4.632% to 4.31%

18:00 Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.8%) in February Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.8%) in February

17:46 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Consolidates near 1.0900 as bulls take a breather The EUR/USD pair traded with a neutral tone on Wednesday after the European session, hovering around the 1.0900 mark as market participants took a step back following its strong rally.

17:20 GBP/USD slides despite cooling US inflation, eyes on US PPI The Pound Sterling depreciated against the US Dollar on Wednesday as US inflation data revealed the disinflation process continued.

16:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 1.448M, below expectations (2.1M) in March 7 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 1.448M, below expectations (2.1M) in March 7

15:54 USD/JPY jumps to near 149.00 after soft US CPI data The USD/JPY pair surges to near 149.20 during North American trading hours on Wednesday.

15:45 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (2.75%) Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (2.75%)

15:31 GBP holds in low 1.29 zone – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) is down slightly on the session, but price moves largely reflect the broader tone on the USD, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:26 EUR retains bullish undertone – Scotiabank The Euro (EUR) peaked around 1.0950 yesterday vs US Dollar (USD), helped in part by news of progress in Ukraine peace talks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:22 CAD trades steadily on the day – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is moderately higher (with the MXN) as 25% steel/aluminum tariffs were enforced as of midnight.

14:32 United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a climbed from previous 324.74 to 325.48 in February United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a climbed from previous 324.74 to 325.48 in February

14:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) below expectations (319.22) in February: Actual (319.082) United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) below expectations (319.22) in February: Actual (319.082)

14:30 United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2.9%) in February: Actual (2.8%) United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2.9%) in February: Actual (2.8%)

14:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in February United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in February

14:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 3.1% below forecasts (3.2%) in February United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 3.1% below forecasts (3.2%) in February

14:30 United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in February United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in February

14:00 Brazil IPCA Inflation came in at 1.31%, above expectations (1.3%) in February Brazil IPCA Inflation came in at 1.31%, above expectations (1.3%) in February

13:12 AUD/USD oscillates below 0.6300 ahead of US Inflation data The AUD/USD pair trades in a tight range below the key level of 0.6300 in Wednesday’s European session.

13:03 Portugal Global Trade Balance up to €-7.211B in January from previous €-7.976B Portugal Global Trade Balance up to €-7.211B in January from previous €-7.976B

13:01 United States MBA Mortgage Applications down to 11.2% in March 7 from previous 20.4% United States MBA Mortgage Applications down to 11.2% in March 7 from previous 20.4%

12:58 USD/CAD to tick down to 1.41 in the near term – Danske Bank Today, focus in CAD FX space turns to the BoC meeting at 14:45 CET - where markets and consensus favour a 25bp rate cut, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report.

12:50 USD/JPY: Further tactical downside may be limited for now – Danske Bank The tactical short USD/JPY spot trade from FX Top Trades 2025, initiated on 13 January, has reached its soft target of 147.00, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report.

12:45 Germany 10-y Bond Auction: 2.92% vs 2.52% Germany 10-y Bond Auction: 2.92% vs 2.52%

12:45 Germany 10-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 2.52% to 2392% Germany 10-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 2.52% to 2392%

12:45 USD/CAD can move towards 1.4240 and 1.4150 – Société Générale USD/CAD broke out from its multiyear range and experienced an extended uptrend, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

12:41 Back and forth on tariffs – ING President Donald Trump threatened to increase steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada to 50% in retaliation to Ontario’s move to raise taxes on electricity exports to the US, a sign of trade war escalation.

12:39 Germany 10-y Bond Auction up to 2.92% from previous 2.52% Germany 10-y Bond Auction up to 2.92% from previous 2.52%

12:39 USD/CNH: Room for another leg lower towards 7.2200 before stabilization – UOB Group As long as any recovery in US Dollar (USD) remains below 7.2500 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH), there is room for another leg lower towards 7.2200 before stabilization can be expected.

12:35 China: FDI no longer a two-way street – Standard Chartered China has turned into a FDI net exporter since 2022, with inward flows collapsing to USD 4.5bn in 2024.

12:31 India Cumulative Industrial Output: 4.2% (January) vs 4% India Cumulative Industrial Output: 4.2% (January) vs 4%

12:31 India Manufacturing Output rose from previous 3% to 5.5% in January India Manufacturing Output rose from previous 3% to 5.5% in January

12:30 India Industrial Output came in at 5%, above expectations (3.5%) in January India Industrial Output came in at 5%, above expectations (3.5%) in January

12:26 USD/JPY: Expected to trade in a range between 146.50 and 149.50 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) could continue to rebound vs Japanese Yen (JPY), but it does not seem to have enough momentum to break above 148.80.

12:24 Gas: Market is eagerly watching how ceasefire talks evolve – ING European natural gas prices rose yesterday with TTF Natural Gas Futures (TTF) settling almost 3.6% higher on the day, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

12:17 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps to near $33 on US slowdown fears, US CPI eyed Silver price (XAG/USD) climbs to near $33.00 in European trading hours on Wednesday, the highest level seen in more than two weeks.

12:08 United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction down to 4.679% from previous 4.808% United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction down to 4.679% from previous 4.808%

12:03 NZD/USD: Expected to trade in a 0.5675/0.5730 – UOB Group Momentum indicators are turning neutral; New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a 0.5675/0.5730 range vs US Dollar (USD).

11:59 EIA reduces oil surplus estimates – ING Despite the ongoing uncertainty in global markets, oil prices managed to settle higher yesterday, supported by the weaker USD.

11:58 Gold retains gains with Ukraine ceasefire deal on the table Gold’s price (XAU/USD) holds onto weekly gains and trades above $2,915 at the time of writing on Wednesday ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for February.

11:56 AUD/USD: Expected to trade in a 0.6255/0.6320 – UOB Group Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a 0.6255/0.6320 range vs US Dollar (USD).

11:49 CAD: Another insurance cut – ING We expect a 25bp rate cut of the Bank of Canada overnight rate to 2.75% today.

11:45 EUR/USD stays firm on US recession risks, US inflation in focus EUR/USD ticks lower but stays near a five-month high, trading at 1.0920 in European trading hours on Wednesday.

11:35 GBP/USD may have just enough momentum to test 1.2975 – UOB Group While overbought, Pound Sterling (GBP) may have just enough momentum to test 1.2975 vs US Dollar (USD) before the risk of a pullback increases.

11:34 ECB's Šimkus: We will see if we cut rates or pause in April European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Wednesday that “we will see if we cut rates or pause in April.” Further comments It is irrational to commit to future rate decisions.

11:30 FX option expiries for Mar 12 NY cut FX option expiries for Mar 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:11 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Remains below 1.4450 near immediate support at nine-day EMA USD/CAD retraces its recent losses, trading around 1.4440 during the European hours on Wednesday.

11:01 NZD/USD bulls remain on the defensive near 0.5700; focus remains on US CPI report The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from a multi-day low, around the 0.5680-0.5675 region and attracts fresh sellers on Wednesday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick.

11:00 BoC expected to trim interest rate again amid US trade war All eyes are on the Bank of Canada (BoC) this Wednesday, with market consensus expecting another rate cut—the seventh in a row.

10:49 Lagarde speech: Cannot ensure that inflation will always be at 2% European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that they cannot ensure that inflation will always be at 2% but added that they must set the monetary policy so it converges to 2%, per Reuters.

10:38 USD: Room to rebound – ING Global risk sentiment continued to sour yesterday as President Trump announced he’d double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, and later pulled the threat as Ontario suspended a 25% surcharge on electricity exports.

10:37 EUR/USD: More likely to consolidate in a 1.0870/1.0950 range – UOB Group Further sustained rise in Euro (EUR) vs US Dollar (USD) seems unlikely; it is more likely to consolidate in a 1.0870/1.0950 range.

10:33 WTI advances to near $66.50, upside seems limited due to rising US growth concerns West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price gains ground for the second successive day, trading $66.40 during the European hours on Wednesday.

10:24 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Wednesday, early in the European session.

10:09 Pound Sterling holds onto gains against US Dollar ahead of US inflation data The Pound Sterling (GBP) stays firm near the four-month high of 1.2965 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session.

10:00 Spain Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 4% to 2.2% in January Spain Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 4% to 2.2% in January

09:51 EUR/GBP holds losses near 0.8450 due to cautious tone surrounding the BoE policy outlook EUR/GBP halts its seven-day winning streak, trading around 0.8430 during the European hours on Wednesday.

09:15 Forex Today: Markets take a break from tariff headlines, focus on BoC and US inflation Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 12: Following a volatile American session that was dominated by tariff headlines on Tuesday, financial markets quiet down early Wednesday.

09:00 Turkey Current Account Balance up to $-3.795B in January from previous $-4.65B Turkey Current Account Balance up to $-3.795B in January from previous $-4.65B

08:47 BoJ’s Ueda: Very worried about uncertainty over overseas economy, prices The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday that he is “very worried about uncertainty over overseas economy, prices.” Additional quotes Underlying inflation still remains below 2%.

07:58 EC President von der Leyen: EU responds with countermeasures to US tariffs on steel European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday that the European Union (EU) has launched 'swift and proportionate countermeasures' on US imports in the EU in response to steel tariffs.

07:35 USD/CHF strengthens to near 0.8850 ahead of US CPI inflation release The USD/CHF pair trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day near 0.8840 during the early European session on Wednesday.

07:24 USD/MXN Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable while below 100-day SMA; US CPI awaited The USD/MXN pair struggles for a firm intraday direction on Wednesday and oscillates in a narrow trading band, around the 20.2790-20.2795 region through the Asian session.

06:54 EUR/JPY climbs above 161.50 amid a slight uptick in global risk sentiment EUR/JPY continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, trading around 161.60 during Wednesday’s Asian session.

06:50 Gold price consolidates near weekly high; looks to US CPI for fresh impetus Gold price (XAU/USD) trades near the weekly high during the Asian session on Wednesday and looks to build on the previous day's goodish rebound from the $2,880 region, or a one-week low.

06:36 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:30 EUR/USD declines to near 1.0900 on renewed US Dollar demand, US CPI data looms The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 1.0900, snapping the three-day winning streak during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

05:53 USD/CAD holds gains near 1.4450 ahead of US CPI data, BoC interest rate decision USD/CAD maintains its gains after a previous session of losses, trading around 1.4440 during Asian hours on Wednesday.

05:07 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hovers near $33.00, four-month highs Silver price (XAG/USD) loses ground after registering gains in the previous session, trading around $32.80 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

05:02 GBP/USD trades with negative bias below mid-1.2900s, downside seems limited ahead of US CPI The GBP/USD pair edges lower during the Asian session on Wednesday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong move up to over a four-month peak, around the 1.2965 area.

05:00 US CPI data set to show inflation edged lower in February as markets gauge Fed’s rate cut path The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to publish the high-impact Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for February on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.