Forex News Timeline

06:40 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Trades below 166.00 after pulling back from eight-month highs
EUR/JPY halts its five-day winning streak, trading around 165.80 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The strengthening of a bullish bias appears as the currency cross moves upwards within an ascending channel pattern, suggested by the technical analysis of the daily chart.

06:00 EUR/USD advances to 1.1530, highest since April 22 amid sustained USD selling
The EUR/USD pair extends its weekly uptrend and climbs to the 1.1530 area or the highest level since April 22 during the Asian session on Thursday. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

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Softer US CPI lifts Fed rate cut bets and weighs on the buck amid the trade uncertainty.The fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders as the focus shifts to the US PPI report. The EUR/USD pair extends its weekly uptrend and climbs to the 1.1530 area or the highest level since April 22 during the Asian session on Thursday. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. The US Dollar (USD) retests the monthly trough amid firming expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. The bets were reaffirmed by softer US consumer inflation figures released on Wednesday, which, along with persistent trade-related uncertainties, continue to weigh on the buck and act as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. US President Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he will set unilateral tariffs and send letters to trading partners in the next week or two, saying this is the deal you can take it or leave it. Trump's comments add a layer of uncertainty and overshadow the optimism over the US-China agreement on a plan to implement the Geneva Consensus and ease trade tensions.The shared currency, on the other hand, draws support from the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish signal that the end of the rate-cutting cycle is nearing. This is seen as another factor that contributes to the bid tone surrounding the EUR/USD pair and validates the near-term positive outlook in the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases from the Eurozone.Meanwhile, the US economic docket features the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The data might influence the USD price dynamics and the EUR/USD pair. That said, any positive USD reaction to the data is likely to be short-lived. Moreover, the aforementioned supportive factors back the case for a further appreciating move for the pair. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

05:42 US Dollar Index falls below 98.50 as softer inflation data boost odds of Fed rate cuts
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second successive day and trading lower at around 98.40 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

05:37 Japanese Yen advances to fresh weekly highs against a broadly weaker USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens for the second consecutive day against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and moves further away from a two-week low touched the previous day.

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Traders now look forward to the release of the US PPI for short-term impetus later this Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens for the second consecutive day against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and moves further away from a two-week low touched the previous day. The initial market reaction to news out of the high-stakes US-China trade talks fades rather quickly in the wake of US President Donald Trump's fresh tariffs threat. This, along with rising geopolitical tensions, tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets and underpins the JPY's safe-haven status. Apart from this, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might push for tighter monetary conditions amid signs of broadening inflation in Japan lend additional support to the JPY. The USD, on the other hand, seems vulnerable near the monthly low as Wednesday's softer US consumer inflation figures reaffirmed bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. This, in turn, drags the USD/JPY pair below the 144.00 mark in the last hour.Japanese Yen is underpinned by a combination of factors; seems poised to appreciate furtherUS President Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he will set unilateral tariffs and send letters to trading partners in the next week or two, saying “this is the deal you can take it or leave it”. Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Congress that it is highly likely that the tariff pause would be extended to countries that are negotiating in good faith.The comments add a layer of uncertainty amid Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policies, overshadowing the optimism over the US-China agreement on a plan to ease export controls and trade tensions. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that China is imposing a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers. In return, US negotiators have agreed to ease some export restrictions on items such as jet engines, related components, and ethane — used in plastics manufacturing. The temporary arrangement reflects a fragile truce between the world's two largest economies as both sides keep options open to escalate if tensions flare again and leverage it in future talks.A Reuters poll indicated that a slight majority of economists expect that the Bank of Japan will forego another interest rate hike this year. Investors, however, seem convinced that the BoJ would proceed with monetary tightening, marking a significant divergence from rising market bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle later this year. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.3% in the previous month to the 2.4% annualized pace in May, missing consensus estimates of 2.5%. Meanwhile, the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% during the reported month, matching April's increase.Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in a nearly 70% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) in September, up from 57% before the data. This leads to a further decline in US Treasury bond yields and drags the US Dollar back to the monthly swing low, which, in turn, exerts pressure on the USD/JPY pair. On the geopolitical front, Israel reportedly may soon launch a strike on Iran's nuclear sites. To prepare for the possibility, the US State Department authorized some staff to leave Iraq, while the Pentagon is allowing military families to depart US bases across the region voluntarily. This comes as Trump expressed doubt about reaching a nuclear deal with Iran.The USD/JPY pair dropped to a fresh weekly low during the Asian session on Thursday, though it managed to rebound a few pips in the last hour and currently trades around the 144.00 mark, still down over 0.35% for the day. Traders now look forward to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which could produce short-term opportunities. USD/JPY could accelerate the downfall once the Asian session low, around 143.70, is brokenFrom a technical perspective, the overnight subsequent pullback from a two-week high and the subsequent slide fall below the 144.55-144.50 horizontal support favors the USD/JPY bears. Moreover, slightly negative oscillators on hourly/daily charts suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the Asian session low, around the 143.70 area, will reaffirm the bearish outlook and pave the way for a fall towards the 143.00 round figure en route to the 142.62-142.60 horizontal support. On the flip side, the 144.55 area, or the Asian session peak, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which a fresh bout of short-covering could allow the USD/JPY pair to make a fresh attempt towards conquering the 145.00 psychological mark. Bulls, however, might wait for a subsequent strength beyond the 145.45 region, or a two-week high touched on Wednesday, before positioning for additional gains. Spot prices might then accelerate the positive momentum towards the 146.00 round figure. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:21 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises above $36.30 amid heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions
The Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers to around $36.30, snapping the two-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provide some support to the white metal.

04:45 Australian Dollar extends losses following Consumer Inflation Expectations data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its losses for the second consecutive day. However, the AUD/USD pair may appreciate as softer US inflation data have boosted bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September.

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However, the AUD/USD pair may appreciate as softer US inflation data have boosted bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September.United States (US) President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, saying that the trade deal with China is done and added that it is subject to his and Chinese President Xi Jinping's final approval. "We are getting a total of 55% tariffs, China is getting 10%. Relationship is excellent! Thank you for your attention to this matter," Trump said on Wednesday. Any economic change in China could impact AUD as China and Australia are close trade partners.China will grant only six-month rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers, which suggests that China wants to have control over critical minerals as leverage in future talks, per the Wall Street Journal (gated).The risk-sensitive AUD may find challenges as the tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, after the United States advised some Americans to leave the Middle East. President Trump said on Wednesday that the US would not permit Iran to have a nuclear weapon, per Reuters. Moreover, CBS News senior White House correspondent Jennifer Jacobs reported that US officials have been told that Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran.Australian Dollar depreciates despite weaker US Dollar amid softer inflation dataThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second successive day and trading lower at around 98.30 at the time of writing. The Greenback depreciates as cooler-than-expected US inflation in May has increased the odds of the Fed rate cuts.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% YoY in May, slightly above 2.3% prior but below the market expectations of a 2.5% increase. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% YoY in May, compared to the consensus of 2.9%.On Wednesday, President Trump stated that he would like to extend the trade talks deadline, but doesn't think it will be necessary. Trump further stated that he will set unilateral tariff rates within two weeks.The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit extended an earlier, temporary respite on Tuesday for the government as it presses a challenge to a lower court ruling last month that blocked the tariffs. The federal appeals court has ruled that President Trump’s broad tariffs can remain in effect while legal appeals continue, per Bloomberg.China's Trade Balance (CNY) arrived at CNY743.56 billion in May, expanding from the previous surplus of CNY689.99 billion. Meanwhile, Exports rose 6.3% YoY against 9.3% in April. The country’s imports fell 2.1% YoY in the same period, from a 0.8% rise recorded previously.Australia’s Trade Balance posted a 5,413M surplus month-over-month in April, below the 6,100M expected and 6,892M (revised from 6,900M) in the previous reading. Exports declined by 2.4% MoM in April, against a 7.2% rise prior (revised from 7.6%). Meanwhile, Imports rose by 1.1%, compared to a decline of 2.4% (revised from -2.2%) seen in March. China’s Caixin Services PMI rose to 51.1 in May as expected, from 50.7 in April.Australian Dollar tests 0.6500 within crucial support zoneThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6500 on Tuesday. The daily chart’s technical analysis suggests a potential weakening of the bullish bias as the pair attempts to break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Additionally, the pair is slightly positioned above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA); breaking below would weaken the short-term price momentum. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is remaining above the 50 mark, indicating a bullish bias.The AUD/USD pair may target an immediate barrier at a seven-month high of 0.6538, which was reached on June 5. Further advances could prompt the pair to explore the region around the eight-month high at 0.6687, aligned with the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6720.On the downside, the initial support appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.6492, aligned with the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6490. A break below this crucial support zone could weaken the bullish bias and lead the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6419.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.27% -0.27% -0.45% -0.02% 0.26% 0.13% -0.48% EUR 0.27% 0.00% -0.18% 0.26% 0.51% 0.41% -0.18% GBP 0.27% -0.01% -0.20% 0.24% 0.49% 0.39% -0.22% JPY 0.45% 0.18% 0.20% 0.41% 0.68% 0.52% -0.03% CAD 0.02% -0.26% -0.24% -0.41% 0.28% 0.13% -0.46% AUD -0.26% -0.51% -0.49% -0.68% -0.28% -0.10% -0.70% NZD -0.13% -0.41% -0.39% -0.52% -0.13% 0.10% -0.60% CHF 0.48% 0.18% 0.22% 0.03% 0.46% 0.70% 0.60% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:27 WTI climbs to near $67.00 on escalating Middle East tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $67.00 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price climbs to near two-month highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1803 vs. 7.1815 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1803 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1815 and 7.1703 Reuters estimate.

04:01 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations up to 5% in June from previous 4.1%
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations up to 5% in June from previous 4.1%

04:01 China grants six-month limit on its ease of rare-earth export licenses - WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter, that China is putting a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers.

03:51 US officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran - Reuters
The United States (US) is scaling back the number of personnel in the Middle East as the tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, per Reuters. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the US would not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

03:17 NZD/USD gathers strength above 0.6000 on softer US CPI data
The NZD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.6035 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Cooler-than-expected US inflation data and rising bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September exert some selling pressure on the Greenback.

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Softer US inflation data undermines the US dollar and acts as a headwind for the pair. Trump said the trade deal with China is ‘done,’ though details from China were lacking.The NZD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.6035 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Cooler-than-expected US inflation data and rising bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September exert some selling pressure on the Greenback. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be the highlights later on Thursday. US inflation rose in May by less than expected for the fourth consecutive month, weighing on the US Dollar (USD). The US CPI rose 2.4% YoY in May versus 2.3% prior, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed on Wednesday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 2.5%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% YoY in May, compared to the consensus of 2.9%. Cooler-than-expected US inflation in May has prompted traders to raise their bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. Traders of short-term interest rate futures have priced in nearly a 68% odds that the Fed would cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) by September, compared with 57% before the US CPI data. They now also see a still small but rising chance of an earlier rate cut, putting about an 18% odds of that happening in July versus about 13% earlier on Wednesday.US President Donald Trump said that the trade deal with China is ‘done,’ although details and confirmation from China were lacking. Additionally, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that tariffs on China will be at the current 55% without additional increases. Positive developments surrounding US-China trade talks also underpin the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

02:54 Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ) below expectations (0.8) in 2Q: Actual (-4.8)
Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ) below expectations (0.8) in 2Q: Actual (-4.8)

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥336.1B to ¥180.2B in June 6
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥336.1B to ¥180.2B in June 6

02:34 Gold overtakes Euro as global reserve asset as central banks buy - Bloomberg
Gold has overtaken the Euro (EUR) as the second-largest asset in the reserves of the world’s central banks, driven by record purchases and rising prices, according to the European Central Bank (ECB).

02:21 US President Donald Trump says willing to extend trade talk deadline, doesn't think it's necessary
US President Donald Trump said late Wednesday that he would be willing to extend the trade talks deadline but doesn't think it will be necessary. Trump further stated that he will set unilateral tariff rates within two weeks.

02:04 USD/CAD softens near 1.3650 on poor US inflation data, rising bets of Fed rate cut
The USD/CAD pair remains on the defensive around 1.3665 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) due to poor US inflation data and rising bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September.

02:01 United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance came in at -8%, below expectations (-3%) in May
United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance came in at -8%, below expectations (-3%) in May

01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 0.9% above expectations (-0.3%) in May
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 0.9% above expectations (-0.3%) in May

01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM): -0.2% (May) vs previous 0%
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM): -0.2% (May) vs previous 0%

01:29 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Hits monthly high, retreats below 94.00 as bearish signal emerges
The AUD/JPY failed to clear the 94.00 resistance level and dropped by over 0.56% on Wednesday, following a monthly high of 94.73, after an upbeat risk mood and a weaker-than-expected US inflation report. At the time of writing, the pair traded near 93.90, virtually unchanged.

01:14 GBP/USD rebounds to hold firm to congestion ahead of key US PPI inflation
GBP/USD found some bullish tailwinds on Wednesday, erasing the previous session’s gains and climbing back into the 1.3550 level.

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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

00:55 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD stumbles below $36.50 despite softer US CPI
Silver price reverses course on Wednesday as the North American session ends, edging down 0.87%. Even though US inflation dipped in May, which would have warranted rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and driven the US dollar lower, it failed to underpin the grey metal. XAG/USD trades at $36.21.

00:17 EUR/USD soars on soft US CPI, closes in on 1.1500
The EUR/USD surged during the North American session but remains shy of clearing the 1.1500 figure, following the release of a softer-than-expected inflation report in the United States (US), which could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce borrowing costs in the near term.

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At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1482, up by over 0.50%.US data revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May fell short of estimates as prices continued to trend lower. Following the data release, US President Donald Trump posted on his social network that the Fed should lower the fed funds rate by one whole percentage point.Although inflation edged lower, some analysts project that households in the upcoming month will feel the impact of tariffs. Meanwhile, positive trade news regarding negotiations between the US and China emerged, as the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) revealed that China is putting a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers.Meanwhile, in the Eurozone (EU), European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers made headlines, although they failed to move the EUR/USD pair. The ECB’s Vujcic said that he is looking for more clarity on trade, while Kazaks noted that it is “quite likely that 2% inflation will require some further cuts for fine-tuning,” said via Econostream on X.The ECB Chief Economist, Philip Lane, added that last week’s rate cut helped clarify the bank’s policy stance to bring inflation toward its target.Ahead in the week, the EUR/USD is expected to be greatly influenced by the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, along with the Initial Jobless Claims report. Across the pond, the EU’s schedule is scarce on economic data, but ECB officials led by Vice-President Luis de Guindos will cross the wires.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD soars past 1.1480 as traders shift toward US PPI dataEUR/USD appears poised to test the 1.1500 mark in the near term as positive news about US-China talks could increase appetite for riskier assets and weigh on the US Dollar.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented that trade fairness with China could be achieved through reduced exports to the US or by rebalancing the world’s largest economies. He added that the Trump administration is committed to maintaining the US Dollar’s reserve currency status.US inflation came in softer than expected in May. Headline CPI rose 2.4% YoY, slightly above April’s 2.3% but below the 2.5% forecast. Core CPI held steady at 2.8% YoY, suggesting underlying inflation remains stable but persistent.The PPI for May is projected to increase from 2.4% to 2.6% YoY. Underlying PPI figures are expected to remain at 3.1% higher, unchanged compared to April’s print.Financial market players do not expect that the ECB would reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the July monetary policy meeting.Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD bulls eyes 1.15 and the YTD highFrom a technical perspective, the uptrend is expected to continue as buyers target a clear break above the 1.1500 figure. This will expose the year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.1572, ahead of 1.1600. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, indicating an upward direction, which suggests that buyers are gaining momentum.The less likely scenario on the downside is that the EUR/USD needs to clear the 1.1450 area. This would set the pair for a pullback toward the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1346 before testing 1.1300. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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Forex News Timeline

05:37 Japanese Yen advances to fresh weekly highs against a broadly weaker USD The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens for the second consecutive day against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and moves further away from a two-week low touched the previous day.

04:27 WTI climbs to near $67.00 on escalating Middle East tensions West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $67.00 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price climbs to near two-month highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1803 vs. 7.1815 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1803 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1815 and 7.1703 Reuters estimate.

04:01 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations up to 5% in June from previous 4.1% Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations up to 5% in June from previous 4.1%

04:01 China grants six-month limit on its ease of rare-earth export licenses - WSJ The Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter, that China is putting a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers.

02:54 Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ) below expectations (0.8) in 2Q: Actual (-4.8) Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ) below expectations (0.8) in 2Q: Actual (-4.8)

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥336.1B to ¥180.2B in June 6 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥336.1B to ¥180.2B in June 6

02:34 Gold overtakes Euro as global reserve asset as central banks buy - Bloomberg Gold has overtaken the Euro (EUR) as the second-largest asset in the reserves of the world’s central banks, driven by record purchases and rising prices, according to the European Central Bank (ECB).

02:01 United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance came in at -8%, below expectations (-3%) in May United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance came in at -8%, below expectations (-3%) in May

01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 0.9% above expectations (-0.3%) in May New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 0.9% above expectations (-0.3%) in May

01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM): -0.2% (May) vs previous 0% New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM): -0.2% (May) vs previous 0%

01:14 GBP/USD rebounds to hold firm to congestion ahead of key US PPI inflation GBP/USD found some bullish tailwinds on Wednesday, erasing the previous session’s gains and climbing back into the 1.3550 level.

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