Forex News Timeline

Thursday, April 17, 2025

Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance down to ¥-233.6B in March from previous ¥182.3B

Japan Imports (YoY) below forecasts (3.1%) in March: Actual (2%)

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥1808.4B to ¥1043.7B in April 11

Japan Exports (YoY) came in at 3.9%, below expectations (4.5%) in March

Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total came in at ¥544.1B, above forecasts (¥485.3B) in March

The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note near 1.1400 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The markets remain cautious as traders wait to see if US President Donald Trump’s administration reaches new trading agreements with partners.

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The markets remain cautious as traders wait to see if US President Donald Trump’s administration reaches new trading agreements with partners. The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision will take center stage later on Thursday. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that trade tensions risk undermining the Fed’s employment and inflation goals. Powell added that US economic growth appears to be slowing, with consumer spending growing modestly, a rush of imports to avoid tariffs likely to weigh on estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and sentiment souring. The concerns over the economic slowdown in the US might drag the US Dollar (USD) lower and create a tailwind for the major pair. Across the pond, the ECB is widely expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Thursday, marking a sixth consecutive reduction amid global tariff tensions and economic uncertainty. “We expect the ECB to cut policy rates by 25bp, fully priced, with dovish communication on the outlook, cracking the door open to rates below neutral,” said Bank of America economist Ruben Segura Cayuela. Traders will take more cues from the ECB Press Conference. Any dovish remarks from policymakers could weigh on the shared currency in the near term. However, analysts believe ECB President Christine Lagarde is unlikely to offer any hints about future rate reductions amid the uncertainty, and the ECB might decide its next steps as data come in. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% YoY in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, compared with the 2.2% increase seen in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the latest data published by Statistics New Zealand on Thursday.

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% YoY in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, compared with the 2.2% increase seen in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the latest data published by Statistics New Zealand on Thursday. The market consensus was for a growth of 2.3% in the reported period.The quarterly CPI inflation climbed to 0.9% in Q1 from the previous print of 0.5% and above the market consensus of 0.7%.

New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.3%) in 1Q: Actual (2.5%)

Gold price extended its record streak for the third time in the week as the Greenback weakened due to tensions between China and the US related to trade policies. These tensions are increasing the appeal of safety assets like precious metals.

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These tensions are increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets like precious metals. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,342, up more than 3.50%. The trade-war escalation turned sentiment sour as the US President Donald Trump ordered an investigation to apply tariffs on rare earth imports, escalating the dispute with China. Bullion hit record highs on Monday and Wednesday, with the all-time high (ATH) reaching $3,343. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck's performance against a basket of six currencies, dropped 0.83% to 99.17. In the meantime, Fed Chair Powell shattered rate cut expectations by stressing that the central bank must ensure tariffs don’t trigger a more persistent rise in inflation. “Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” Powell said at the Economic Club of Chicago. Data-wise, US Retail Sales exceeded projections, compared to the previous reading. US Industrial Production hinted that manufacturing activity continued to slow down, This week, Gold traders await housing data and Initial Jobless Claims. Daily digest market movers: Gold price capitalizes gains on falling US yields The US 10-year Treasury yield tumbled almost six basis points to 4.281%. US real yields fell three and a half bps to 2.111%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields failing to cap Gold prices. Fed Chair Powell revealed that a weakening economy and high inflation could conflict with the central bank's two goals, making a stagflationary scenario possible. “We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” he said. “If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.” Money market players had priced in 91 bps of easing by the Fed toward the end of 2025. The first cut is expected in July. Data-wise, US Retail Sales rose 1.4% MoM in March, beating the 1.3% forecast and surging from February’s 0.2%, boosted by strong auto sales. However, the control group—used for GDP calculations—rose just 0.4%, down from 1.3% and missing the 0.6% estimate. The Federal Reserve announced that Industrial Production fell 0.3% in March, following a 0.8% increase in February. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price poised to test new record highs at $3,400 Gold price uptrend remains in place with buyers eyeing the $3,350 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the $3,400 figure, followed by key psychological levels like $3,450 and $3,500. Conversely if XAU/USD falls below $3,300, the first support would be the April 16 low of $3,229, followed by the $3,200 figure. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The NZD/USD pair advanced for a third session on Wednesday, holding near the 0.5900 region ahead of the Asian session. The pair saw modest gains and remained confined within a relatively tight range between 0.58865 and 0.59308, suggesting a steady bullish tone.

NZD/USD trades near the 0.5900 zone following another daily push higherMACD supports bullish bias, while RSI flirts with overbought territoryKey moving averages continue to underpin the pair’s upward trajectoryThe NZD/USD pair advanced for a third session on Wednesday, holding near the 0.5900 region ahead of the Asian session. The pair saw modest gains and remained confined within a relatively tight range between 0.58865 and 0.59308, suggesting a steady bullish tone.From a technical perspective, the broader bias remains positive. The MACD prints a buy signal, confirming continued bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65.16, edging close to overbought conditions but still neutral. Similarly, the Awesome Oscillator and the Average Directional Index (ADX) remain flat, hinting that the current uptrend lacks strong conviction.Still, the backdrop remains supportive of further gains. All major moving averages — including the 20-day SMA at 0.57318, the 100-day at 0.57083, and the 200-day at 0.58897 — are aligned in favor of buyers. The 10-day EMA (0.57905) and SMA (0.57374) also reinforce this structure, helping the pair sustain its recent upside.Immediate support is found at 0.58897, followed by 0.58421 and 0.57905. On the upside, bulls may target resistance around 0.59666 if momentum strengthens.
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