Forex News Timeline

06:08 USD/CAD steadies near 1.3950 as US Dollar receives support from trade optimism
USD/CAD is attempting to hold its position for the fourth consecutive session, hovering around 1.3940 during Monday’s Asian trading hours. The pair remains supported as the US Dollar (USD) gains strength following reported progress in US-China trade talks over the weekend in Switzerland.

06:05 WTI sits near two-week high, just below $61.00 as traders await US-China trade deal details
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices rise to a nearly two-week high during the Asian session on Monday, though bulls struggle to find acceptance or build on the momentum beyond the $61.00 mark.

05:45 Australian Dollar appreciates due to growing optimism after two-day US-China discussion
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is building on its recent momentum, rising against the US Dollar (USD) for a second straight session on Monday. The AUD/USD pair is benefiting from growing optimism around the US-China trade talks held in Geneva.

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The AUD/USD pair is benefiting from growing optimism around the US-China trade talks held in Geneva. As Australia maintains strong economic ties with China, developments in the Chinese economy often have a direct influence on the AUD. After two days of negotiations aimed at easing trade tensions, both the US and China reported “substantial progress.” China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng described the talks as “an important first step” toward stabilizing bilateral relations. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer called the discussions a constructive move toward narrowing the $400 billion trade imbalance.Adding to the focus on China, President Xi Jinping is set to speak at the opening ceremony of the fourth ministerial meeting of the China-CELAC Forum in Beijing on May 13. Looking ahead, traders are eyeing key Australian economic releases, including May’s Westpac Consumer Confidence and April’s NAB Business Conditions, both scheduled for Tuesday, which could offer fresh cues for the AUD. Investors are also focused on upcoming US data, with consumer inflation figures due Tuesday, followed by Retail Sales and Producer Price Index data on Thursday, as they gauge the early impact of the trade dispute on the broader economy.Australian Dollar advances due to progress in US-China trade talks The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is declining for a second consecutive day, hovering around 100.60 at the time of writing. However, the US Dollar found some support after the Trump administration reported progress in trade talks with China over the weekend in Switzerland.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the two-day discussions in Geneva with Chinese officials “productive,” adding that more information would be provided in a Monday morning briefing. At present, China is contending with US tariffs of 145%, while Beijing has responded with a 125% tariff on American exports.Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the 10% baseline tariff applied to other countries is expected to “remain in place for the foreseeable future.”Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, but its accompanying statement highlighted rising concerns about inflation and unemployment, adding a layer of uncertainty to the market outlook.Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a post-meeting press conference, warned that ongoing trade tariffs could hinder the central bank’s efforts to manage inflation and employment in 2025. He also suggested that persistent policy instability may prompt the Fed to take a more cautious, wait-and-see approach to future rate moves.China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined for the third consecutive month in April, falling 0.1% year-on-year, matching both the market forecast and the drop recorded in March, according to data released Saturday by the National Bureau of Statistics. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) contracted 2.7% YoY in April, steeper than the 2.5% drop in March and below the market expectation of a 2.6% decline.On the trade front, China posted a trade surplus of $96.18 billion in April, exceeding the forecast of $89 billion but down from March’s $102.63 billion. Exports rose 8.1% YoY, outperforming the expected 1.9% but slowing from the 12.4% gain seen previously. Imports dipped 0.2% YoY, a milder decline than both the forecasted -5.9% and March’s -4.3%. China’s trade surplus with the US narrowed to $20.46 billion from $27.6 billion in March.In the property sector, Beijing is reportedly weighing a major reform that would prohibit the pre-sale of homes and restrict transactions to completed properties. The proposed regulation, aimed at bringing stability to the real estate market, would apply to future land sales, excluding public housing, with implementation left to local governments.Australia’s Ai Group Industry Index showed improvement in April, although it marked the 33rd straight month of contraction—particularly driven by weakness in export-reliant manufacturing. These signs of persistent softness have strengthened market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% later this month.Australian Dollar could fall toward 0.6400 after breaking below nine-day EMA The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6420 on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a neutral bias as the pair has maintained its position below the ascending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains comfortably above 50, suggesting bullish bias is still in play.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could return to the ascending channel and retest the six-month high at 0.6515, reached on December 2, 2024. A break above this level could support the pair to approach the seven-month high of 0.6687, which was reached in November 2024. Further support appears at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6730.The AUD/USD pair is testing its initial support at the nine-day EMA at 0.6420, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6345. A breach below these levels could weaken the bullish outlook and may expose the pair to 0.5914, the lowest since March 2020.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

05:32 Japanese Yen hangs near one-month low against USD amid trade optimism
The Japanese Yen (JPY) touches a one-month low against a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Monday in reaction to the US-China trade deal optimism.

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The US and China ended high-stakes trade talks in Switzerland on a positive note on Sunday, boosting investors' confidence and undermining demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY. Apart from this, worries about Japan's growth outlook on the back of US tariffs uncertainty further weigh on the JPY. The USD, on the other hand, drew support from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish pause earlier this month and easing concerns about a recession in the US.Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait for the US-China joint statement on Geneva trade talks. Moreover, Japan’s upbeat Household Spending data released on Friday boosted the case for further policy normalization by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and should help limit deeper JPY losses. Meanwhile, prospects for more interest rate hikes by the BoJ mark a big divergence in comparison to expectations for at least three rate cuts by the Fed. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the USD/JPY pair's recent goodish recovery from the year-to-date low, levels just below the 140.00 psychological mark. Japanese Yen bulls remain on the defensive as trade optimism undermines demand for traditional safe-haven assetsUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Sunday that a trade deal had been struck with China. Adding to this, China's Vice Premier He Lifeng said that the high-stakes meeting achieved substantial progress and reached important consensus on issues of concern to both countries.The optimism triggers a fresh wave of global risk-on trade at the start of a new week, which is evident from strong gains around the equity markets and, in turn, undermines the safe-haven Japanese Yen. However, neither side mentioned any agreement to cut US tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods and China's 125% tariffs on US goods.Hence, investors might opt to wait for a joint statement from the US and China on Geneva trade talks later today, which could outline the details and framework of the deal. China's Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang was quoted as saying that "no matter when this statement is released, it’s going to be big news and good news for the world."Meanwhile, positive developments help to ease market concerns that an all-out trade war might trigger a US recession. Adding to this, the Federal Reserve's hawkish signal that it is not leaning towards cutting interest rates anytime soon assists the US Dollar to stand firm near its highest level since April 10, touched on Friday.Meanwhile, Japan's robust Household Spending data and a fall in real wages for the third straight month in March contributed to fears of broader, more entrenched price increases in Japan. This backs the case for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, though the trade uncertainty forced the central bank to adopt a cautious stance. In fact, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledged that the timeline for underlying inflation to reach the central bank's 2% target has been delayed. However, minutes from the BoJ's monetary policy meeting held on March 18-19 revealed last Thursday that the central bank remains ready to hike interest rates further if inflation trends hold.Investors now look forward to the release of US inflation figures later this week, which, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance on Thursday, will influence the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, Japan's first-quarter Gross Domestic Product report on Friday should provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY seems poised to appreciate further, towards testing the 61.8% Fibo. level near the 146.80-146.85 areaFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair now seems to have found acceptance above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April downfall. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction and are holding in the bullish territory on hourly charts, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. Hence, some follow-through strength towards the 146.80-146.85 region, representing the 61.8% Fibo. level, looks like a distinct possibility. This is closely followed by the 147.00 round-figure mark, which, if cleared, should set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move.On the flip side, the 145.55 area, or the 50% level, now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the USD/JPY could accelerate the slide towards the 145.00 psychological mark. The latter coincides with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and should act as a pivotal point. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and drag spot prices to the next relevant support near the 144.45 region en route to the 144.00 round figure. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

04:54 NZD/USD attracts some buyers above 0.5900 on US-China trade optimism
The NZD/USD pair gains traction to near 0.5925 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the Greenback amid easing concerns over a trade war between the United States and China.

04:47 Japan PM Ishiba: Autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters
Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday that “autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters,” while setting out some outlines on trade negotiations.

Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday that “autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters,” while setting out some outlines on trade negotiations. more to come ....

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2066 vs. 7.2095 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2066 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.2095 and 7.2429 Reuters estimate.

04:03 EUR/USD trades below 1.1250, eases due to ECB dovish signals
EUR/USD is retreating from gains posted in the previous session, trading near 1.1240 during Monday’s Asian session.

04:02 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD tumbles below $3,300 on progress in US-China trade talks
The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $3,275 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Optimism in US-China trade talks in Geneva, Switzerland, over the weekend has dragged the precious metal lower.

03:49 GBP/USD trades with negative bias below 1.3300 amid modest USD strength
The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a weaker note and reverses a part of Friday's modest recovery from the vicinity of the 1.3200 mark, or over a three-week low.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/USD attracts some sellers as the US-China trade deal eases US recession fears and boosts the USD.The US-UK trade agreement and the BoE’s cautious tone support the GBP and limit losses for the major.Traders now look forward to speeches from BoE officials and FOMC members for some meaningful impetus.The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a weaker note and reverses a part of Friday's modest recovery from the vicinity of the 1.3200 mark, or over a three-week low. Spot prices trade around the 1.3280-1.3275 region during the Asian session, down 0.20% for the day amid a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD). The US announced on Sunday that a trade deal with China had been reached following high-stakes trade talks in Switzerland over the weekend. This, in turn, helps to ease market concerns about a recession in the US. Adding to this, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish pause earlier this month lifts the USD to over a one-month high, which, in turn, exerts pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Meanwhile, the US and the UK signed a limited trade agreement last Thursday. Moreover, the Bank of England's (BoE) cautious tone, saying that rates will stay restrictive for as long as necessary to ensure inflation risks subside, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the British Pound (GBP) and limit any meaningful depreciating move for the GBP/USD pair.Even from a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action witnessed over the past three weeks or so warrants caution before positioning for a firm near-term direction. Investors might also opt to wait for speeches from BoE MPC members and influential Fed officials. Investors will look for cues about the future policy outlook, which, in turn, will provide a fresh impetus to the GBP/USD pair. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.10% 0.14% -0.23% 0.23% -0.13% 0.07% -0.08% EUR -0.10% 0.17% 0.20% 0.61% 0.39% 0.45% 0.30% GBP -0.14% -0.17% 0.21% 0.45% 0.23% 0.21% 0.13% JPY 0.23% -0.20% -0.21% 0.46% -0.53% -0.55% -0.08% CAD -0.23% -0.61% -0.45% -0.46% -0.10% -0.16% -0.32% AUD 0.13% -0.39% -0.23% 0.53% 0.10% -0.04% -0.10% NZD -0.07% -0.45% -0.21% 0.55% 0.16% 0.04% -0.18% CHF 0.08% -0.30% -0.13% 0.08% 0.32% 0.10% 0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

03:30 India and Pakistan both claim victory as ceasefire seems to hold
India and Pakistan have both claimed victory after a ceasefire was declared over the weekend, which brought the two nuclear nations back from the brink of war.

02:51 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis: ¥516.5B (March) vs previous ¥712.9B
Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis: ¥516.5B (March) vs previous ¥712.9B

02:50 Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥3678.1B, above forecasts (¥3678B) in March
Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥3678.1B, above forecasts (¥3678B) in March

02:50 Japan Bank Lending (YoY) below expectations (2.8%) in April: Actual (2.4%)
Japan Bank Lending (YoY) below expectations (2.8%) in April: Actual (2.4%)

02:46 US President Donald Trump says he’ll sign executive order that aims to cut drug prices
US President Donald Trump announced Sunday that he will sign an executive order that would cut prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices "almost immediately, by 30% to 80%.”

02:25 AUD/USD gathers strength above 0.6400 amid optimism in US-China trade talks
The AUD/USD pair edges higher to around 0.6420 during the early Asian session on Monday. Optimism in US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, boosts the Australian Dollar (USD) against the Greenback.

01:52 US, China cite ‘substantial progress’ in Geneva trade talks - Bloomberg
China's Vice Premier He Lifeng described the weekend talks with US officials as “substantial progress” in stabilising bilateral trade relations, per Bloomberg.

01:34 China’s CPI inflation arrives at -0.1% YoY in April vs. 0.1% expected
China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped at an annual pace of 0.1% in April after declining 0.1% in March.

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Forex News Timeline

05:32 Japanese Yen hangs near one-month low against USD amid trade optimism The Japanese Yen (JPY) touches a one-month low against a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Monday in reaction to the US-China trade deal optimism.

04:47 Japan PM Ishiba: Autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday that “autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters,” while setting out some outlines on trade negotiations.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2066 vs. 7.2095 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2066 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.2095 and 7.2429 Reuters estimate.

04:03 EUR/USD trades below 1.1250, eases due to ECB dovish signals EUR/USD is retreating from gains posted in the previous session, trading near 1.1240 during Monday’s Asian session.

03:49 GBP/USD trades with negative bias below 1.3300 amid modest USD strength The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a weaker note and reverses a part of Friday's modest recovery from the vicinity of the 1.3200 mark, or over a three-week low.

03:30 India and Pakistan both claim victory as ceasefire seems to hold India and Pakistan have both claimed victory after a ceasefire was declared over the weekend, which brought the two nuclear nations back from the brink of war.

02:51 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis: ¥516.5B (March) vs previous ¥712.9B Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis: ¥516.5B (March) vs previous ¥712.9B

02:50 Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥3678.1B, above forecasts (¥3678B) in March Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥3678.1B, above forecasts (¥3678B) in March

02:50 Japan Bank Lending (YoY) below expectations (2.8%) in April: Actual (2.4%) Japan Bank Lending (YoY) below expectations (2.8%) in April: Actual (2.4%)

02:46 US President Donald Trump says he’ll sign executive order that aims to cut drug prices US President Donald Trump announced Sunday that he will sign an executive order that would cut prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices "almost immediately, by 30% to 80%.”

02:25 AUD/USD gathers strength above 0.6400 amid optimism in US-China trade talks The AUD/USD pair edges higher to around 0.6420 during the early Asian session on Monday. Optimism in US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, boosts the Australian Dollar (USD) against the Greenback.

01:52 US, China cite ‘substantial progress’ in Geneva trade talks - Bloomberg China's Vice Premier He Lifeng described the weekend talks with US officials as “substantial progress” in stabilising bilateral trade relations, per Bloomberg.

01:34 China’s CPI inflation arrives at -0.1% YoY in April vs. 0.1% expected China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped at an annual pace of 0.1% in April after declining 0.1% in March.

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