ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

14:06 USD/CHF accelerates its reversal to levels near 0.8100
The US Dollar is being hammered across the board, with the safe-haven CHF rallying on risk aversion.

13:39 Brent eyes $72 and $75.40 as next resistance levels – Société Générale
Brent crude is showing bullish continuation signals after confirming a double bottom and breaking above its consolidation range, with momentum indicators pointing toward further upside, Société Générale's FX analysts note, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

Brent crude is showing bullish continuation signals after confirming a double bottom and breaking above its consolidation range, with momentum indicators pointing toward further upside, Société Générale's FX analysts note, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Technical breakout signals further upside potential"Brent formed a double bottom near $58.40 recently and has overcome the upper limit of its base highlighting possibility of extension in up move. Daily MACD has crossed within positive territory highlighting prevalence of upward momentum." "Next objectives could be located at the 200-DMA near $72 and April high of $75.40. Upper limit of recent range at $66.60/66.40 is a short-term support."

13:36 A sobering ECB report on the role of the EUR – Commerzbank
Some ECB officials, including the President herself, have recently made no secret of their ambitions to establish the euro as the world's new reserve currency, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

Some ECB officials, including the President herself, have recently made no secret of their ambitions to establish the euro as the world's new reserve currency, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. US sanctions policy may jeopardize the USD's haven status "However, the report the central bank recently published on the international role of the euro is likely to bring disillusionment. Here it points to an interesting development: The share of gold in the reserves of central banks overtook the share of the euro last year. Admittedly, this is due to a great part to the significant rise in the price of the precious metal. Nevertheless, it is clearly observable that many central banks made significant gold purchases last year.""The ECB provides explanations for this: The purchases can be observed especially since the outbreak of the Ukraine war and are therefore likely to be a reaction to the Western sanctions against Russia which included the freezing of foreign currency reserves of the Russian central bank in many countries. Central banks in countries with close relations to Russia and China in particular seem to have built up their gold reserves to protect themselves from similar sanctions.""One thing that could seriously jeopardize the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency is the US sanctions policy. If these increasingly represent a potential burden for companies, they could decide to turn away from the US dollar. However, this naturally also applies to the euro. If Europe's sanctions policy goes hand in hand with that of the US, the euro is of course not a viable alternative to the dollar. In the case of the Russia-Ukraine war, the explanation is clear: the majority of Russia's frozen foreign currency reserves are located in Europe after all."

13:32 EUR/USD breaks short-term channel – Société Générale
EUR/USD is regaining upside traction after defending its 50-DMA and breaking above a short-term channel, with momentum indicators supporting a test of key resistance levels, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

EUR/USD is regaining upside traction after defending its 50-DMA and breaking above a short-term channel, with momentum indicators supporting a test of key resistance levels, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Euro regains upward momentum"EUR/USD defended the 50-DMA near 1.1065 (now at 1.1300) and broke out from a short-term channel denoting regaining upward momentum. This is also highlighted by the daily MACD, which remains anchored within positive territory and has crossed above trigger line." "The pair is approaching April high of 1.1570/1.1610. Defence of recent pivot low at 1.1370 will be crucial for persistence in up move. If the pair establishes beyond 1.1570/1.1610, the up move may extend towards projections of 1.1780 and 1.1885."

13:29 USD/CNH has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could edge higher, but any advance is likely limited to a test of 7.2070. In the longer run, USD has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) could edge higher, but any advance is likely limited to a test of 7.2070. In the longer run, USD has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD has likely moved back into a range trading phase24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected USD to 'trade in a range of 7.1730/7.1970.' USD then traded in a higher range of 7.1811/7.2003. The slight increase in upward momentum suggests USD could edge higher today. However, any advance is likely limited to a test of 7.2070. The major resistance at 7.2200 is not expected to come into view. On the downside, support levels are at 7.1880 and 7.1800." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is not much to add to our update from Monday (09 Jun, spot at 7.1870). As highlighted, the recent 'mild downward momentum has eased, and USD has likely moved back into a range trading phase, probably between 7.1620 and 7.2200'.”

13:28 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) dipped from previous 0.6% to 0.4% in May
United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) dipped from previous 0.6% to 0.4% in May

13:26 USD: The US-China deal – Commerzbank
The US dollar depreciated yesterday following the weaker-than-expected US inflation figures and the EUR/USD exchange rate was able to rise towards its April high this morning.

The US dollar depreciated yesterday following the weaker-than-expected US inflation figures and the EUR/USD exchange rate was able to rise towards its April high this morning. At this point, I could spend a long time pondering whether the reaction was justified, pointing to explanations for the continued lack of inflationary impetus from US tariffs and attempting to interpret the figures from the Fed's perspective, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Downside potential in EUR/USD is therefore likely to remain limited"There was something entirely else that was remarkable about the whole movement yesterday: the ignoring of the news about an agreement in the tariff conflict between the US and China. This left the exchange rate virtually cold. The risk of the dispute between the two economic powers escalating again should now be significantly lower following the agreement, which in itself would be positive for the dollar.""One could argue that an agreement had already been in the offing after the talks in London and that yesterday's confirmation was therefore no longer news. However, the dollar had not been able to benefit from this prospect at the beginning of the week either. This leaves us with the following explanation: this 'deal', like the one with the UK before it, is nothing more than hot air from the market's perspective. In fact, the status quo in terms of tariffs has merely been confirmed - the only new elements are mutual promises to facilitate trade in selected critical goods.""The likelihood is increasing that the other US trading partners will also be unable to secure any concessions on the reciprocal tariffs announced at the beginning of April by the end of the 90-day-pause - no matter how hard they try. This is bad news for the dollar, especially as the reaction pattern of USD exchange rates appears increasingly asymmetrical. On the one hand, positive developments are hardly supporting them. On the other hand, stronger rate cut speculation since yesterday has weighed on the dollar. The downside potential in EUR/USD is therefore likely to remain limited for the time being, whereas there is still plenty of scope to the upside."

13:24 USD/JPY: Increase in momentum is not sufficient to indicate a sustained advance – UOB Group
The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase between 143.60 and 145.10. In the longer run, Increase in momentum is not sufficient to indicate a sustained advance just yet; US Dollar (USD) must first break and hold above 145.50, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Pete

The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase between 143.60 and 145.10. In the longer run, Increase in momentum is not sufficient to indicate a sustained advance just yet; US Dollar (USD) must first break and hold above 145.50, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Movements are part of a range trading phase between 143.60 and 145.1024-HOUR VIEW: "We highlighted the following yesterday: 'The price movements have resulted in a slight increase in upward momentum, but this is likely to lead to a higher trading range of 144.50/145.50 instead of a sustained advance. In other words, USD is unlikely to break clearly above 145.50.' USD subsequently rose to 145.46 and then fell to a low of 144.31. The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 143.60 and 145.10." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from Monday (09 Jun, spot at 144.70), we indicated that the increase in upward momentum is not sufficient to indicate a sustained advance just yet.' However, we pointed out that 'if USD were to break and hold above 145.50, it could potentially trigger a strong recovery.' Yesterday, USD rose to within a few pips of 145.50 (high of 145.46) before pulling back. While upward momentum is beginning to slow, there is still a chance for USD to break clearly above 145.50 as long as 143.60 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is not breached."

13:21 EU: Skeleton of a US deal – Standard Chartered
US-EU deal is achievable; it may come after 9 July, but tariff reprieve is likely to be extended. EU likely to consider unilateral tariff cuts and streamlining of regulatory burden to mollify Trump.

US-EU deal is achievable; it may come after 9 July, but tariff reprieve is likely to be extended. EU likely to consider unilateral tariff cuts and streamlining of regulatory burden to mollify Trump. Baseline US tariff of 10-20% likely to remain part of deal; scope for escalation is still high, Standard Chartered's economists Christopher Graham and Saabir Salad report. EU offer likely to expand in coming weeks"We think the outline of a EU-US trade deal is emerging. We think a unilateral lowering of some EU tariffs (such as on cars), a pledge to buy more US imports (in areas such as LNG and defence), and an offer to simplify or ease certain regulatory burdens facing US firms selling into the European market would be sufficient to deliver a deal; we do not expect EU tax cuts (on VAT or digital service taxes) to form part of any deal. As important as the detail of any deal, however, is the way it is presented.""EU trade negotiators appear to be shifting towards unilateral offerings on tariffs and regulations, without demands for quid-pro-quos from the US side, and a willingness to accept a minimum US baseline tariff (10-15%) without resorting to retaliation will be key for any deal to endure. However, the EU will hope that some concessions on sectoral tariffs (particularly autos and pharmaceuticals) can be achieved. We acknowledge the risk that negotiations could sour, and tariffs could escalate in the coming weeks, but ultimately, we would expect any game of brinkmanship to subside and deliver a deal; both sides are incentivised to avoid a tit-for-tat escalation in tariffs.""In terms of timeframe, the 9 July deadline (when US tariffs on the EU are set to increase to 50%) remains difficult, but not impossible. An extension of the current tariff reprieve offered by the US beyond 9 July is likely if sufficient progress has been made by negotiators over the coming weeks; the G7 meeting (16-17 June) and NATO summit (24-25 June) could serve as springboards for high-level agreements and announcements around progress."

13:02 Ireland HICP (YoY) meets forecasts (1.4%) in May
Ireland HICP (YoY) meets forecasts (1.4%) in May

13:01 Ireland HICP (전월 대비) down to 0% in May from previous 0.4%
Ireland HICP (전월 대비) down to 0% in May from previous 0.4%

13:01 Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0% (May) vs previous 0.4%
Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0% (May) vs previous 0.4%

13:00 Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 2.2% to 1.7% in May
Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 2.2% to 1.7% in May

13:00 DXY: Data matters – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) fell on softer than expected CPI. This puts focus on PPI data tonight (8:30pm) before the lead up to FOMC next week. DXY was last at 98.40 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

US Dollar (USD) fell on softer than expected CPI. This puts focus on PPI data tonight (8:30pm) before the lead up to FOMC next week. DXY was last at 98.40 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias"In the event of a higher print, we may well see the overnight move reverse. But further downside data surprise (which cannot be ruled out given that the last PPI print was negative) may see DXY break below 2025 low." "Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias while RSI fell. Support at 97.90 (2025 low). Resistance at 99.40 (21 DMA), 99.90 levels (50 DMA)."

12:58 USD: Dollar's glass is half empty – ING
It is fair to say that dollar price action has been poor.

It is fair to say that dollar price action has been poor. Having spent the last 10 weeks discussing the breakdown in the dollar-US Treasury correlation as the 'Sell America' thesis took hold, investors noticed that the dollar was only too keen to revert to traditional correlations on Wednesday as the soft CPI sent US Treasuries higher. DXY ended the day some 0.5% weaker – a typical reaction to some bullish steepening of the US yield curve on the view that the Fed had more room to cut. For reference, the soft CPI data put about another 9-10bp back into the expected 2025 Fed easing cycle, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.DXY is pretty close to the April low at 97.90/98.00"The dollar has also failed to enjoy any bounce on the news of progress in US-China trade negotiations. That may be because details of the deal have been very vague, but yesterday US President Trump also said that the Commerce Department would be sending out letters in the next week or so dictating 'take it or leave it' trade deals to the 20 or so countries currently involved in negotiations. This keeps the risk of a 9 July cliff-edge jump in tariffs on the table – again seen as a dollar negative.""There are probably only two factors which are supporting the dollar in the near term. The first is that the dollar is very stretched versus rate differentials. It is hard to see it falling a lot further without another decline in short-dated US rates. It is unclear whether US PPI or initial claims will deliver those lower US rates today. The second is geopolitics. Tensions are rising in the Middle East as speculation grows over a potential Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Oil prices have been rising this week. Higher oil prices are a dollar positive by way of the US comparative advantage in energy independence. Any further developments here could see the dollar favoured for its liquidity – although the yen and Swiss franc would be in demand too.""DXY is pretty close to the April low at 97.90/98.00. We prefer to see that as the bottom of a trading range. But dollar price action has been poor and we are perhaps seeing the lagged impact of global portfolio re-allocation decisions, such as outright sales of US assets or increased hedge ratios. Certainly, lower short-dated US rates make it an easier decision to raise hedge ratios on US assets."

12:53 USD/JPY extends losses to 143.70 amid broad-based Dollar weakness
US Dollar is among the weakest G8 currencies on Thursday.

12:32 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:29 ECB’s Schnabel: Monetary policy cycle is coming to an end
European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday, “monetary policy cycle is coming to an end.”

European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday, “monetary policy cycle is coming to an end.”Additional commentsGrowth outlook broadly stable despite trade conflict.

Medium-term inflation stabilizes at target.

Financing conditions are no longer restrictive.

Private consumption is supporting growth.

Defence and infrastructure spending counteract tariffs.

Energy prices and the Euro could change in either direction.

I expect only limited trade diversion from China to EU.

The Euro’s global role is strong, could strengthen further.

12:28 NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6015/0.6055 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6015/0.6055 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, upward momentum remains largely unchanged, but there is a chance for NZD to test 0.6095, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6015/0.6055 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, upward momentum remains largely unchanged, but there is a chance for NZD to test 0.6095, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Upward momentum remains largely unchanged24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected NZD to 'trade with an upward bias' yesterday, we indicated that 'the major resistance at 0.6095 is likely out of reach.' We also pointed out, 'there is another resistance level at 0.6070.' After rising briefly to a high of 0.6066 in the NY session, NZD retreated to close at 0.6027 (-0.44%). The upward bias has faded, and NZD is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6015/0.6055 today." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have maintained the same view since last Friday (06 Jun, spot at 0.6045), wherein 'upward momentum remains largely unchanged, but there is a chance for NZD to test 0.6095.' On the downside, a breach of 0.6010 would indicate that the chance for a test of 0.6095 has faded."

12:26 EUR/USD: ECB boosting appeal – OCBC
Euro (EUR) extended its move above 1.15-handle on broad US Dollar (USD) softness overnight (post-CPI) and ECB comments. EUR was last at 1.1552 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Euro (EUR) extended its move above 1.15-handle on broad US Dollar (USD) softness overnight (post-CPI) and ECB comments. EUR was last at 1.1552 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Daily momentum is bullish"Apart from Lagarde, other Governing Council members echoed views relating to ECB nearing the end of the easing cycle, after 200bps of cut via 8 meetings. Kazimir said 'As things stand now, ECB is nearly done, if not already at the end of the easing cycle'. Stournaras said that the bar for more rate cuts is high. He also added that the views among the Governing Council (difference between doves-hawks) 'have converged'." "Lane said that latest reduction in borrowing costs will guard against inflation getting stuck below 2%. Moreover, Lagarde took opportunity yesterday to bump up the role EUR can play as a reserve currency. She said the further shifts may be underway in global currencies and that currency shift may boost euro’s international role." "Elsewhere, progress on EU-US trade talks remains on the radar as the 9 Jul deadline draws closer. EU officials believe that this deadline may be extended. Daily momentum is bullish while RSI rose. Next resistance at 1.1570 levels, if broken may trigger 'buy-on-break' trades, with next resistance around 1.17 levels. Support at 1.1360 (21 DMA), 1.1305 (50 DMA)."

12:20 AUD/USD: Expected to trade in a range – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range against US Dollar (USD), likely between 0.6490 and 0.6535. In the longer run, bias remains on the upside, but it remains to be seen if AUD can break clearly above 0.6555, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range against US Dollar (USD), likely between 0.6490 and 0.6535. In the longer run, bias remains on the upside, but it remains to be seen if AUD can break clearly above 0.6555, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Likely to trade between 0.6490 and 0.653524-HOUR VIEW: "We stated in the early Asian session yesterday that 'upward momentum has increased further, indicating further upside pressure.' However, we highlighted that 'the major resistance at 0.6555 is likely out of reach.' We also highlighted that 'there is another resistance level at 0.6540.' In the early NY session, AUD rose briefly to 0.6546 before retreating to close at 0.6503. The price action did not result in any increase in upward momentum. Today, we expect AUD to trade in a range, likely between 0.6490 and 0.6535." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have expected a positive bias in AUD since early last week. In our latest narrative from last Friday (06 Jun, spot at 0.6510), we indicated that “the bias remains on the upside, but it remains to be seen if AUD can break clearly above 0.6555.” Yesterday, AUD rose briefly to 0.6546. As there has been no further increase in upward momentum, we continue to hold the same view. On the downside, if AUD breaks below 0.6480 (no change in ‘strong support’ level), it would mean that AUD is likely to trade in a range for the time being."

12:19 Japan’s Trade Negotiator Akazawa: Any discussions on US Treasuries would be led by Kato
Japan’s Chief Trade Negotiator and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Thursday that “any discussions on US Treasuries would be led by Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato.”

12:17 USD/MXN rises toward 19.00 after rebounding from 10-month lows
USD/MXN edges higher after hitting a 10-month low at 18.82, which was recorded on Wednesday, currently trading around 18.90 during the European hours on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/MXN appreciates as the Mexican Peso loses ground due to risk aversion amid rising Middle East tensions.US officials have been told that Israel is fully prepared to launch an operation into Iran.The Banxico may keep its interest rates higher due to a rise in domestic inflation.USD/MXN edges higher after hitting a 10-month low at 18.82, which was recorded on Wednesday, currently trading around 18.90 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) attracts buyers against the Mexican Peso (MXN) due to increased safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.Reuters reported that the United States (US) decided to reduce its personnel from the Middle East. US officials have been told that Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, reported by CBS News senior White House correspondent Jennifer Jacobs.On Wednesday, Trump said that the US would not allow Iran to own a nuclear weapon. However, traders await the meeting between the US and Iran scheduled on Sunday for nuclear talks. Axios reporter Barak Ravid reported that White House envoy Steve Witkoff is going to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Muscat on Sunday and discuss the Iranian response to the recent US proposal.However, the USD/MXN pair faced challenges as the US Dollar (USD) struggled amid increasing odds of the Fed rate cut in September, boosted by cooler-than-expected US inflation in May. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in May, slightly above 2.3% prior but below the market expectations of a 2.5% increase. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% YoY in May, compared to the consensus of 2.9%.The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to maintain its restrictive policy stance, reinforced by a rise in headline inflation to 4.42% and core inflation to 4.06%, its highest in eleven years. The higher policy rate has preserved an appealing real interest rate, attracting capital inflows and supporting the Mexican Peso. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

12:01 Antipodeans: Consolidating upward trend – ING
The Australian and New Zealand dollars are consolidating recent gains as US-China trade tensions have abated, while the USD failed to regain much ground, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars are consolidating recent gains as US-China trade tensions have abated, while the USD failed to regain much ground, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. Targets for AUD/USD and NZD/USD are 0.66 and 0.61 respectively "Pitching a big rally in AUD and NZD has been harder compared to the outperforming European currencies, which are incidentally benefiting from stronger repatriation flow effects. However, reduced external economic risks related to China can allow AUD and NZD to enjoy some outperformance relative to peers with similarly high beta to risk sentiment in the coming weeks.""The NZD remains a more attractive option in our view as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has signalled more cautiousness in easing further, while the Reserve Bank of Australia’s dovish tilt suggests more room for cuts. We expect only one additional cut in New Zealand this year as services CPI may prove too slow to decelerate, while the RBA may deliver two if not three more." "The erosion of AUD’s rate advantage relative to NZD means periods of calm in risk assets can favour NZD more than AUD for the remainder of the year. For now, we stick with our short-term targets of 0.66 in AUD/USD and 0.61 in NZD/USD."

11:59 AUD/USD extends correction to near 0.6480 amid uncertainty over US-China trade relations
The AUD/USD pair slides to near 0.6480 during European trading hours on Thursday, following the corrective move from an over six-month high of 0.6545 posted the previous day.

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The Aussie pair weakens as the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms across the board, while investors doubt whether the trade truce between the United States (US) and China will last long. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.51% -0.14% -0.53% -0.10% 0.02% -0.09% -0.72% EUR 0.51% 0.37% -0.03% 0.41% 0.51% 0.43% -0.19% GBP 0.14% -0.37% -0.43% 0.04% 0.13% 0.04% -0.58% JPY 0.53% 0.03% 0.43% 0.43% 0.53% 0.40% -0.18% CAD 0.10% -0.41% -0.04% -0.43% 0.12% -0.01% -0.62% AUD -0.02% -0.51% -0.13% -0.53% -0.12% -0.09% -0.70% NZD 0.09% -0.43% -0.04% -0.40% 0.00% 0.09% -0.62% CHF 0.72% 0.19% 0.58% 0.18% 0.62% 0.70% 0.62% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump stated in a post on Truth.Social that China has agreed to supply rare earths and magnets, but didn’t provide concrete details on what Beijing will get in return.Full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China. Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students using our colleges and universities (which has always been good with me!)," Trump wrote. He further added, "We are getting a total of 55% tariffs, China is getting 10%. Relationship is excellent!“While President Trump indicated favorable news that tariffs on Chinese imports would rise from 30% to 55% and Chinese rare-earth exports may resume, there is little news on what China gets in return. I doubt this is a one-way deal and hence the market caution seen overnight," analysts at Etera Investment Management said.The uncertainty among market participants over the US-China trade deal weighs on the Australian Dollar (AUD), given that the Australian economy relies heavily on its exports to Beijing.Although investors have underpinned the US Dollar (USD) against the AUD, it underperforms against the majority of its peers amid uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy. On Wednesday, US President Trump stated that Washington is prepared to send a final trade agreement, including tariff rates, to those trading partners from whom Washington has not received any proposal or those who are not negotiating in good faith. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

11:57 GBP/USD: Unlikely to reach 1.3620 for now – UOB Group
Further rebound is not ruled out, but Pound Sterling (GBP) is unlikely to reach 1.3620 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, GBP appears to have moved into a 1.3495/1.3620 range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Further rebound is not ruled out, but Pound Sterling (GBP) is unlikely to reach 1.3620 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, GBP appears to have moved into a 1.3495/1.3620 range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. GBP appears to have moved into a 1.3495/1.3620 range24-HOUR VIEW: "GBP plummeted to a low of 1.3458 two days ago and then rebounded. Yesterday, when GBP was at 1.3500, we highlighted that 'while further GBP weakness is not ruled out today, oversold conditions suggest that any decline may be limited to a retest of the 1.3460 level.' While GBP subsequently dropped to 1.3466, it rebounded strongly, reaching a high of 1.3568 in the late NY session. Further rebound is not ruled out, but given the overbought conditions, any advance is unlikely to reach 1.3620 (there is another resistance at 1.3600). Support levels are at 1.3535 and 1.3515." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (11 Jun, spot at 1.3500), we noted 'a tentative increase in downward momentum.' We indicated that GBP 'is likely to trade with a downward bias toward 1.3430.' We pointed out that 'the downward bias will remain intact as long as the ‘strong resistance’ level at 1.3580 is not breached.' GBP subsequently dropped to 1.3466 and then rebounded strongly to close 0.29% higher at 1.3566. While our ‘strong resistance’ level has not been breached yet, downward momentum has largely faded. GBP appears to have moved into a rangetrading phase, and is likely to trade between 1.3495 and 1.3620 for now."

11:54 GBP: A little underperformance coming through – ING
Some softer UK April GDP data this morning has seen sterling come under more pressure, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Some softer UK April GDP data this morning has seen sterling come under more pressure, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. EUR/GBP to trade towards 0.8550 and 0.8600 "Bit of a disappointing UK April GDP figure – down 0.3% on the month. Not a huge surprise. These figures have been hugely volatile recently. In part, that's a frontloading effect – manufacturing surged in Feb and has unwound since." "But in general, there is mounting scepticism about the figures themselves, in particular given that for the past three years, the first half of the year has been stronger than the second, despite the data supposedly being seasonally adjusted. This suggests second quarter growth as a whole will come in around 0.1% or 0.2%, after 0.7% in the first quarter.""This softer GDP data, following the softer wage data earlier this week, will suggest the Bank of England does have good reason to cut rates after all. EUR/GBP is close to 0.8500 now, and the building narrative of wider eurozone versus UK policy rate spreads (the ECB has nearly finished easing, the BoE could accelerate rate cuts) warns that EUR/GBP trades to 0.8550 and 0.8600 on a multi-month view."

11:46 EUR/USD: Likely to continue rising towards 1.1575 – UOB Group
Scope for Euro (EUR) to continue to rise; the major resistance at 1.1535 is probably out of reach for now. In the longer run, EUR could continue to rise to 1.1535; it is too early to tell if there is enough momentum for it to reach 1.1575, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Scope for Euro (EUR) to continue to rise; the major resistance at 1.1535 is probably out of reach for now. In the longer run, EUR could continue to rise to 1.1535; it is too early to tell if there is enough momentum for it to reach 1.1575, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR/USD is set to continue to rise24-HOUR VIEW: "We did not expect EUR to soar to 1.1499 (we were expecting range-trading). While the rapid rise appears to be excessive, there is scope for EUR to continue to rise. That said, the major resistance at 1.1535 is probably out of reach for now. On the downside, a breach of 1.1465 (minor support is at 1.1485) would mean that the current upward pressure is easing." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from Monday (09 Jun, spot at 1.1405), in which EUR 'appears to have entered a range trading phase, likely between 1.1330 and 1.1495.' Yesterday, EUR soared to a high of 1.1499 before closing 0.56% higher at 1.1487. Given the rapid buildup in upward momentum, EUR could continue to rise towards 1.1535. At this time, it is too early to tell if there is enough momentum for EUR to reach last month’s high, near 1.1575. To sustain the momentum buildup, EUR must remain above 1.1425."

11:44 USD/CAD bounces up from lows but remains on the defensive below 1.3700
The US Dollar is posting a mild recovery against its Canadian counterpart on Thursday’s European trading session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Canadian Dollar loses ground with Oil prices coming down from highs.-The US Dollar remains on the defensive as US data boosts hopes of Fed easing.Today's focus is on the US PPI to confirm the CPI’s moderate inflation trend.The US Dollar is posting a mild recovery against its Canadian counterpart on Thursday’s European trading session. The pair bounced up from one-week lows, with the CAD losing ground as Oil prices ease, but maintains its broader bearish trend intact, with bulls capped well below the 1.3700 level so far.

The Canadian Dollar’s rally lost steam on Thursday, with Oil prices retreating from two-month highs. The US Benchmark WTI Oil appreciated 5% rally on Wednesday, as the frictions between the US and Iran threatened to disrupt crude supply from the already volatile region, which acted as a tailwind for the Loonie.Fed cut hopes are weighing on the USDThe pair had dropped to levels close to the 20-month low at 1.3634 hit earlier this month, weighed by the skeptical market reaction to the US-China trade deal and soft US CPI figures, which boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again in September.
sighed
Markets sighed with relief on Wednesday after US CPI data revealed that consumer inflation grew at a slower-than-expected pace in April, despite the tariff turmoil. Monthly inflation accelerated 0.1% with the yearly rate growing at a 2.4% pace, below market expectations of 0.2% and 2.5% readings, respectively.

Investors will be attentive to the US PPI release to confirm the moderate inflation trends, but, so far, hopes of Fed easing in September have increased, with futures markets pricing a nearly 60% chance of a 25 bps cut, from about 50% last week. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

11:44 EUR: Everyone loves the Euro – ING
The Euro (EUR) has been doing well this week and seems to be the big winner from the de-dollarisation story, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

The Euro (EUR) has been doing well this week and seems to be the big winner from the de-dollarisation story, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. 1.1550/1600 area is the top of a trading range"A slightly more hawkish ECB has helped here, as has some weakness in the currencies of key trading partners, such as the UK. On the calendar today are a lot of ECB speakers. Probably up for discussion is whether the ECB needs to cut rates again in September. Price data and the ECB's wage tracker data suggest the ECB does have room to cut. And the market just about prices a cut for December.""As above, we do note that EUR/USD is trading way above levels justified by short-dated interest rate differentials. Our baseline remains that this 1.1550/1600 area is the top of a trading range – unless those rate differentials can have a big move in favour of the Euro. But we do note the prevailing narrative on de-dollarisation and would not advocate aggressively fighting this dollar bear trend at these levels.""Elsewhere, it's not something that the spot FX market typically looks at, but we have a very timely European conference today on financial integration. The ECB and European politicians are keen to push the 'global Euro' debate, but holding the Euro back is the incomplete capital markets union. Today's conference, 'Advancing the Savings and Investments Union', will seek to cover those remaining 'To Dos', and any new developments here might get greater coverage than usual."

11:37 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA support near 0.6000
NZD/USD is extending its losses for the second successive session, trading around 0.6020 during the European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a bullish bias as the pair moves upwards within an ascending channel pattern.

11:23 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD corrects further to near $35.50 despite escalating Middle East woes
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its correction for the third trading day, slides almost 1.5% to near $35.50 during European trading hours on Thursday. The white metal retraces after failing to extend its over-decade high of $36.90 posted on Monday.

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The white metal retraces after failing to extend its over-decade high of $36.90 posted on Monday. The asset faces a sharp selling pressure even though tensions in the Middle East have escalated.According to officials in the United States (US) and Europe, Israel appears to be preparing to launch an attack soon on Iran, The New York Times reported. Meanwhile, Washington has announced that it is scaling back the number of personnel from the Middle East as the tensions between Israel and Iran escalate.Theoretically, geopolitical tensions increase demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.Meanwhile, increasing uncertainty surrounding the US’s tariff policy has kept the US Dollar (USD) on the backfoot. The White House stated on Wednesday that it is prepared to send a final trade agreement, including tariff rates, to those trading partners from whom Washington has not received any proposal or those who are not negotiating in good faith.“At a certain point we’re just going to send letters out saying ‘this is the deal,’ you can take it or you can leave it,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth.Social and added, “We’re going to be sending letters out in a week and a half to two weeks telling them what the deal is.”Technically, lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a value bet for investors.Silver technical analysisSilver price rally pauses after posting a fresh over-a-decade high around $36.90. However, the near-term outlook of the white metal remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher, which is currently around $34.63.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) retraces to near 60.00 after turning overbought. The odds are in favor that the RSI will resume the upside, assuming that the near-term trend is bullish.Looking up, the psychological level of $40.00 will be the major resistance for the Silver price. On the downside, the October 22 high of $34.87 will act as key support for the asset.Silver daily chart , Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

11:01 GBP/JPY extends losses below 195.00 following soft UK GDP data
The Pound accelerates its reversal against the Japanese Yen and is nearing the bottom of the last week's trading range, at 194.70 hammered by downbeat UK monthly GDP and manufacturing production figures.Higher taxes and Trump’s tariff turmoil hit the UK economy in April, and the GDP shrank at a 0.3

10:56 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Trades below 0.8200 after retreating from nine-day EMA barrier
The USD/CHF pair continues to lose ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.8170 during the European hours on Thursday. However, the bearish bias is prevailing as the pair moves downwards within the descending channel pattern, indicated by the daily chart’s technical analysis.

10:46 ECB's Simkus: The ECB has arrived at neutral level of rates
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Thursday that “the ECB has arrived at neutral level of rates.”

10:43 ECB’s Villeroy: No fixed position on future rate decisions
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that there is no fixed position on future rate decisions.”

10:35 Pound Sterling slumps as UK economy shrinks in April
The Pound Sterling (GBP) falls sharply against its major peers on Thursday as the United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the economy shrank at a faster-than-expected pace in April.

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In March, the GDP growth rate was 0.2%. This higher-than-projected decline in the country’s economy is expected to force the Bank of England (BoE) officials to reassess their “gradual and careful” monetary expansion guidance, which they delivered in May after slashing interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%.Meanwhile, the factory data has also declined at a faster-than-projected pace in April. On month, the Industrial and Manufacturing Production contracted by 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively.On Tuesday, the employment data for the three months ending in April also indicated cracks in the labor market. UK business owners laid off a significant number of employees and recruited fewer workers than seen in the quarter ending in March on the back of an increase in employers’ contributions to social security schemes.Signs of economic shockwaves and softer labor demand are expected to boost market expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates more times than projected last week.Going forward, the major trigger for the Pound Sterling will be the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May and the BoE’s monetary policy meeting, both scheduled for next week. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling falls back against US DollarThe Pound Sterling gives back Asian session gains against the US Dollar (US), sliding to near 1.3560 during European trading hours on Thursday as the UK GDP data for April showed an economic contraction. However, the pair trades slightly higher on the day, around 1.3555 at the time of writing.Meanwhile, the US Dollar is also underperforming against its peers on Thursday due to uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy.On Wednesday, US President Trump threatened to send letters to those trading partners from whom Washington has not received any proposal or those who are not negotiating in good faith, stating trade terms and tariff rates.“At a certain point, we’re just going to send letters out. And I think you understand that, saying this is the deal, you can take it or you can leave it,” Trump said to reporters on Wednesday at Kennedy Centre and added, “We’re going to be sending letters out in a week and a half to two weeks, telling them what the deal is.”On the US-China trade front, Trump expressed confidence through a post on Truth.Social that Beijing has agreed to supply rare earths to Washington after the two-day meeting in London earlier this week. “Full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China. Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students using our colleges and universities (which has always been good with me!)," Trump wrote. He further added, "We are getting a total of 55% tariffs, China is getting 10%. Relationship is excellent!”On the economic calendar front, investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The PPI report is expected to show that the producer inflation grew at a faster pace.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling stays above 20-day EMAThe Pound Sterling struggles to revisit the over three-year high of 1.3617 against the US Dollar, which was touched on June 5. The GBP/USD pair continues to hold the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.3480, suggesting that the near-term trend remains bullish.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to break 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI breaks decisively above that level.On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3617 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the May 15 low of 1.3258 will act as a key support zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:32 EUR/USD rises to seven-week highs as Fed easing hopes, tariff threats hit the USD
The EUR/USD pair has broken above the range of the last few days and is trading above 1.1500 for the first time in almost two months on Thursday.

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The effect of the trade truce with China has been short-lived. Trump has stirred markets again, touting that he will impose unilateral tariffs on trade partners if they do not reach a trade deal before the July 9 deadline, Bloomberg reports.

Before that, the US Dollar was already on its back foot following the softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday, which increased expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates in September.

Futures markets are pricing a nearly 60% chance of a 25-basis-points rate cut after the summer, up from 50% last week, according to data from the CME Fed Watch tool.

The Eurozone Calendar is light this week, but a slew of European Central Bank policymakers have reiterated President Christine Lagarde’s latest message, hinting at the end of the easing cycle.

This change of rhetoric, supported by a string of positive US data last week, is highlighting a monetary policy divergence with the Federal Reserve that provides additional support to the common currency. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.24% -0.01% -0.39% -0.08% 0.14% 0.13% -0.44% EUR 0.24% 0.23% -0.17% 0.16% 0.36% 0.37% -0.18% GBP 0.00% -0.23% -0.41% -0.07% 0.12% 0.12% -0.44% JPY 0.39% 0.17% 0.41% 0.32% 0.52% 0.47% -0.05% CAD 0.08% -0.16% 0.07% -0.32% 0.22% 0.18% -0.36% AUD -0.14% -0.36% -0.12% -0.52% -0.22% 0.00% -0.55% NZD -0.13% -0.37% -0.12% -0.47% -0.18% -0.00% -0.56% CHF 0.44% 0.18% 0.44% 0.05% 0.36% 0.55% 0.56% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: The “Sell America” trade continuesUS President Trump rattled markets, announcing early on Thursday that he will send letters to trading partners in the next days with the terms of a trade deal to avoid higher tariffs ahead of the deadline on July 9.The fragile trade truce between the US and China failed to support the US Dollar on Wednesday. The US Dollar index has dropped to fresh seven-week lows and is nearing April’s multi-year low at 97.95. The Euro is one of the largest beneficiaries of US Dollar weakness.Also on Wednesday, US consumer prices rose by 0.1% in May and by 2.4% compared with the same month last year, below the market consensus of 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively. Core inflation fell to 0.1% in the month and remained steady at 2.8% year on year, also below the 0.3% and 2.9% respective figures anticipated by the market.A 10-year US Treasury Bond auction encountered strong demand on Wednesday, which eased fears about the US fiscal debt and provided some support to the US Dollar.The focus on Thursday will be on the US Producer Prices Index (PPI) to confirm the benign inflation pressures and increase hopes of a rate cut in September. The headline PPI is expected to have accelerated at a 0.2% monthly rate and 2.6% year-on-year from the -0.5% and 2.4% respective readings in April.In the Eurozone, more ECB officials will take the stage today. Policymakers are likely to dampen hopes of further monetary easing down the road, which is a supportive message for the Euro.Technical analysis: EUR/USD approaches YTD highs at 1.1575EUR/USD has broken the recent consolidation range and is heading higher. The 4-hour RSI is approaching overbought territory, which suggests a potential pullback, but downside attempts are likely to find buyers.

The pair has found resistance at 1.1530, not far from the April 22 high at 1.1547, which is the last hurdle ahead of the year-to-date high at 1.1572 (April 21 high).

On the downside, supports are at the intraday 1.1480 level ahead of the previous resistance, which will now act as support, at 1.1460 (June 2, 10 highs). Bears should push the pair below those levels to cancel the bullish trend. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

10:30 WTI falls to near $66.50, downside seems limited due to escalating Middle East tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price pulled back from a two-month high of $67.82, currently trading around $66.50 per barrel during the early European hours on Thursday.

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However, the crude Oil prices may regain their ground due to increased fears over supply disruptions, sparked by the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.According to a Reuters report, the United States (US) decided to scale back American personnel in the Middle East. CBS News senior White House correspondent Jennifer Jacobs reported that US officials have been told that Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran.US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the US would not permit Iran to have a nuclear weapon, per Reuters. The US and Iran are expected to meet on Sunday for nuclear talks. Axios reporter Barak Ravid reported that White House envoy Steve Witkoff is going to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Muscat on Sunday to discuss the Iranian response to the recent US proposal.Oil prices also receive support as optimism for energy demand increases amid easing trade tensions between the US and China, the two largest Oil consumers. Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday, saying that the trade deal with China is done and added that it is subject to his and Chinese President Xi Jinping's final approval. "We are getting a total of 55% tariffs, China is getting 10%. Relationship is excellent! Thank you for your attention to this matter," Trump said on Wednesday.However, China is prepared to grant only six-month rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers, which shows that China wants to have control over critical minerals as leverage in future talks, per the Wall Street Journal (gated).Moreover, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released Crude Oil Stocks Change, showing a decline of 3.6 million barrels in Oil inventories in the previous week, exceeding forecasts of a 2 million-barrel decline. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

09:58 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Outlook remains bearish, key support level emerges near 98.00
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, tumbles to the lowest level in seven weeks near 98.35 due to rising expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year and persistent uncertainty over tariff battles.

09:55 Forex Today: US Dollar stays offered as focus shifts to PPI inflation data
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 12:

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 12:Risk sentiment remains sour early Thursday as investors' take account of the latest trade headlines while holding their nerves ahead of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Producer Price Index (CPI) data for May and another US Treasury 10-year note auction.The selling interest around the US Dollar (USD) remains unabated, with the Greenback hitting the lowest level in two months against its currency rivals near 98.25.Despite easing US-China trade tensions, lingering uncertainties over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs against major trading partners continue to unnerve markets.Trump said late Wednesday that he was open to extending a July 8 deadline for completing trade talks with countries.Further, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions contribute to the dour mood. CBS News senior White House reporter Jennifer Jacobs reported that United States (US) officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran.“US anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain US sites in Iraq,” Jacobs added.This comes as US President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country's nuclear program on Sunday.Meanwhile, the USD also feels the pain of the softer US inflation data for May. The US Consumer Price Index i(CPI) increased 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Both prints undermined expectations of 0.2% and 2.5% respectively.Softer-than-expected US CPI data solidified the bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September.CME Group’s FedWatch tool now shows markets' pricing in about a 62% probability of 25 basis points (bps) rate cut versus 52% seen pre-data release. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.23% -0.11% -0.52% -0.15% 0.03% -0.09% -0.41% EUR 0.23% 0.12% -0.33% 0.07% 0.24% 0.15% -0.15% GBP 0.11% -0.12% -0.45% -0.05% 0.11% 0.02% -0.30% JPY 0.52% 0.33% 0.45% 0.36% 0.54% 0.38% 0.12% CAD 0.15% -0.07% 0.05% -0.36% 0.19% 0.05% -0.25% AUD -0.03% -0.24% -0.11% -0.54% -0.19% -0.10% -0.41% NZD 0.09% -0.15% -0.02% -0.38% -0.05% 0.10% -0.31% CHF 0.41% 0.15% 0.30% -0.12% 0.25% 0.41% 0.31% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). EUR/USD hangs close to seven-week highs above 1.1500 in the European morning on Thursday, building on Wednesday’s 0.50% gain.GBP/USD drops back toward 1.3550 after facing rejection again near 1.3600. The Pound Sterling was hit by a bigger-than-expected contraction in the UK economy in April.Data showed on Thursday that the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropped by 0.3% in April, following a 0.2% growth in March and against a 0.1% decline expected. The monthly Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data also fell short of market expectations in the same period.USD/JPY holds losses near 144.00, undermined by increasing haven demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY). The pair also remains pressured by the persistent weakness surrounding the US currency.Gold price extends its upbeat momentum into the second consecutive day, hitting fresh weekly highs near $3,380.WTI pulls back nearly 1% from 10-week highs of $67.82, reached in response to the Iran-Israel headlines. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

09:28 China’s Foreign Minister says government will always honour its commitments
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Thursday that the government will always honour its commitments, adding that he hopes the US can work with China to implement what was agreed between the two presidents.

09:13 EUR/GBP gathers strength to near 0.8500 on weaker UK GDP data
The EUR/GBP cross gains momentum to around 0.8495 during the early European session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) after the release of UK growth numbers.

09:08 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $66.53 per barrel, down from Wednesday’s close at $67.20.

09:03 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance dipped from previous £-3.696B to £-7.026B in April
United Kingdom Total Trade Balance dipped from previous £-3.696B to £-7.026B in April

09:02 United Kingdom Index of Services (3M/3M) below expectations (0.7%) in April: Actual (0.6%)
United Kingdom Index of Services (3M/3M) below expectations (0.7%) in April: Actual (0.6%)

09:01 UK GDP falls 0.3% MoM in April vs. -0.1% expected
The UK economy contracted in April, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declining 0.3%, having increased by 0.2% in March, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday.

09:01 United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance registered at £-23.206B, below expectations (£-20.5B) in April
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance registered at £-23.206B, below expectations (£-20.5B) in April

09:01 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -0.6%, below expectations (-0.5%) in April
United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -0.6%, below expectations (-0.5%) in April

09:00 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) below forecasts (-0.2%) in April: Actual (-0.3%)
United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) below forecasts (-0.2%) in April: Actual (-0.3%)

09:00 United Kingdom Trade Balance; non-EU dipped from previous £-6.834B to £-8.649B in April
United Kingdom Trade Balance; non-EU dipped from previous £-6.834B to £-8.649B in April

09:00 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in April
United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in April

09:00 United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance came in at £-23.21B below forecasts (£-20.5B) in April
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance came in at £-23.21B below forecasts (£-20.5B) in April

09:00 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (MoM) came in at -0.3%, below expectations (-0.1%) in April
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (MoM) came in at -0.3%, below expectations (-0.1%) in April

09:00 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) came in at -0.9%, below expectations (-0.8%) in April
United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) came in at -0.9%, below expectations (-0.8%) in April

08:30 NZD/USD gains to near 0.6040 amid uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy
The NZD/USD claws back its initial losses and rises to near 0.6040 during early European trading hours on Thursday. The Kiwi pair attracts bids as the US Dollar (USD) declines as uncertainty surrounding the outlook of the United States' (US) tariff policy has escalated.

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The Kiwi pair attracts bids as the US Dollar (USD) declines as uncertainty surrounding the outlook of the United States' (US) tariff policy has escalated.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh seven-week low near 98.30.On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump told reporters at the Kennedy Centre that he is prepared to send a final trade agreement, including tariff rates, to those trading partners from whom Washington has not received any proposal or those who are not negotiating in good faith.“At a certain point we’re just going to send letters out saying ‘this is the deal,’ you can take it or you can leave it,” Trump said and added, “We’re going to be sending letters out in a week and a half to two weeks telling them what the deal is.”Though investors have underpinned the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar, the former is underperforming against other peers as trade terms announced by US President Trump with China on Wednesday lack what Beijing has received in return, potentially increasing doubts on the longevity of the trade truce.Full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China. Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students using our colleges and universities (which has always been good with me!)," Trump wrote in a tweet on Truth.Social. He further added, "We are getting a total of 55% tariffs, China is getting 10%. Relationship is excellent! New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.30% -0.31% -0.45% -0.12% 0.03% -0.13% -0.45% EUR 0.30% -0.01% -0.17% 0.17% 0.30% 0.17% -0.13% GBP 0.31% 0.00% -0.18% 0.17% 0.29% 0.16% -0.15% JPY 0.45% 0.17% 0.18% 0.32% 0.46% 0.27% 0.00% CAD 0.12% -0.17% -0.17% -0.32% 0.15% -0.02% -0.32% AUD -0.03% -0.30% -0.29% -0.46% -0.15% -0.13% -0.44% NZD 0.13% -0.17% -0.16% -0.27% 0.02% 0.13% -0.31% CHF 0.45% 0.13% 0.15% -0.01% 0.32% 0.44% 0.31% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote). Given that the New Zealand (NZ) economy is one of the leading trading partners of China, uncertainty over the Chinese economic outlook impacts the Kiwi dollar negatively. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

08:13 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Falls to near 1.3650, eight-month lows
The USD/CAD pair is retracing its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 1.3660 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

08:12 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Remains depressed near mid-195.00s ahead of UK monthly GDP
The GBP/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through.

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The technical setup backs the case for the emergence of some dip-buyers at lower levels. The GBP/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through. Spot prices remain confined in the weekly range and currently trade around the 195.55 area, down 0.20% for the day as traders now look forward to the UK monthly GDP print for some meaningful impetus. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens across the board in reaction to US President Donald Trump's fresh tariff threat and rising geopolitical risks, which weighs on investors' sentiment and benefits traditional safe-haven assets. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues with its relative underperformance in the wake of bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates twice this year. This marks a significant divergence from expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would proceed with monetary tightening and suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/JPY cross is to the downside. From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bullion consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent goodish rebound from the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone. This, in turn, suggests that any subsequent slide to the 195.00 psychological mark is likely to attract dip-buyers, which should limit the downside for the GBP/JPY cross near the weekly swing low, around the 194.80-194.75 region, touched on Tuesday.A convincing break below the latter, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag spot prices to the 194.00 round figure en route to the next relevant support near the 193.40 horizontal zone. The GBP/JPY cross could extend downward further and eventually drop below the 193.00 mark, to challenge the 200-day SMA, currently pegged near the 192.85-192.80 region. On the flip side, the 195.85-196.00 area now seems to have emerged as an immediate barrier. This is followed by the May swing high, around the 196.25-196.30 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter could be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and lift the GBP/JPY cross to the 197.00 mark for the first time since January. The momentum could extend towards the 197.40-197.50 hurdle en route to the 198.00 mark and the 198.25 region, or the year-to-date peak touched in January.GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

07:59 AUD/JPY declines to near 93.50 amid geopolitical risks
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory for the second consecutive day around 93.55 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Japanese Yen (JPY).

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Geopolitical risks boost the Japanese Yen, a safe-haven currency. China granted a six-month limit on its ease of rare-earth export licenses.The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory for the second consecutive day around 93.55 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Japanese Yen (JPY). Japan’s April Industrial Production will be published on Friday. On Wednesday, the United States is planning a partial evacuation of its Iraqi embassy and will allow military dependents to depart places around the Middle East, citing security risks in the region. Additionally, White House envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Muscat on Sunday and discuss the Iranian response to the recent US proposal, per Axios. Any signs of escalating geopolitical risks could underpin the JPY as investors seek more holdings in safe-haven assets.On the Aussie front, optimism around the US-China trade deal could help limit the downside for the cross. Early Wednesday, the US and China agreed to a preliminary deal on how to implement the consensus the two sides reached in Geneva. On the same day, the Wall Street Journal reported that China is putting a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers. Positive developments surrounding the world’s two largest economies might underpin the China-proxy AUD as China is a major trading partner of Australia. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

07:58 USD/CNH retraces to near 7.20 as investors seeks more details on US-China trade deal
The USD/CNH pair gives back all gains made on Wednesday and slides to near 7.18 during Asian trading hours on Thursday.

07:52 Gold price refreshes weekly top amid the global flight to safety, weaker USD
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through buyers for the second straight day and climbs to a one-week high, around the $3,377-3,378 region during the Asian session on Thursday.

07:51 FX option expiries for Jun 12 NY cut
FX option expiries for Jun 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jun 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1350 2.7b1.1400 2.9b1.1440 897m1.1450 3.6b1.1500 4.4b1.1525 1.7b1.1550 950m1.1600 1.8bGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3400 619mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 143.00 1.8b143.55 802m143.85 850m146.00 1.1bUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8075 454m0.8100 486m0.8400 450mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6472 628m0.6500 1b0.6600 815mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3750 833mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5720 849mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8350 487m0.8500 442m

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,265.63 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,218.86 it cost on Wednesday. The price for Gold increased to INR 108,072.50 per tola from INR 107,526.90 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,265.63 10 Grams 92,656.60 Tola 108,072.50 Troy Ounce 288,193.60 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily digest market movers: Gold holds firm as the Greenback, US yields plunge The weakness of the US Dollar might keep Gold prices underpinned. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Dollar against a basket of peers, falls 0.44% to 98.61, reaching four-day lows. US Treasury yields are collapsing; The US 10-year Treasury yield has dropped five basis points (bps) to 4.42%. US real yields followed suit, falling by five basis points to 2.13%, boosting Bullion‘s advance. US inflation rose less than expected in May, with headline CPI up 2.4% YoY, below the 2.5% forecast but slightly above April’s 2.3%. The Core CPI remained steady at 2.8% YoY, matching the previous month's figure and indicating persistent yet stable underlying price pressure. Geopolitical tensions remain high as US President Trump told Fox News that Iran is becoming much more aggressive in nuclear talks. The Iranian Foreign Minister said, “As we resume talks on Sunday, it is clear that an agreement that can ensure the continued peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program is within reach — and could be achieved rapidly.” Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 47.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:30 Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) dipped from previous 4.1% to 3.3% in May
Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) dipped from previous 4.1% to 3.3% in May

07:29 USD/INR flattens while Indian Rupee underperforms ahead of India’s CPI data
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a slightly weak note against its major peers on Thursday ahead of the Indian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be published at 10:30 GMT.

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Investors will pay close attention to the retail inflation data as it will indicate whether the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will cut interest rates again in the August monetary policy meeting.Economists expect the Indian retail headline inflation data to have grown at a modest pace of 3% compared to 3.16% in April. The estimated figure is the lowest level seen since April 2019. Signs of decelerating inflationary pressures encourage RBI officials to endorse further monetary policy expansion.In last week’s policy meeting, the RBI changed its stance from “accommodative” to “neutral”, stating that there is little room for further policy-easing after front-loading interest rate cuts. The Indian central bank slashed its Repo Rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5% and reduced Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 bps to 3%.Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have also appeared to be cautious ahead of the inflation data, which resulted in a small sale of Indian equities worth Rs. 446.31 crores on Wednesday.Meanwhile, the World Bank slashed India’s economic growth forecasts for FY26 by 40 bps to 6.3% on Tuesday. Still, the institution expects the nation to be the fastest-growing of the world’s largest economies. The bank cited weaker export activity amid global trade barriers as the key reason behind the downward revision in economic growth.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee trades flat against US Dollar while Greenback suffersThe Indian Rupee opens flat to near 85.46 against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair wobbles, even though the US Dollar is facing backlash from uncertainty surrounding the United States' (US) tariff policy. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its Wednesday’s underperformance to near 98.30, the lowest level seen in over seven weeks.Market experts struggle to gauge the likely outcome of new economic policies announced by US President Donald Trump after returning to the White House due to his erratic statements on the tariff structure.On Wednesday, US President Trump signaled while responding to reporters at the Kennedy Centre that he could extend the 90-day tariff deadline, which is scheduled to expire on July 8. “Willing to extend trade deadlines but won't need to,” Trump said. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also told the House Tax’s writing committee that the tariff pause could be extended for 18 countries who are negotiating in “good faith”, according to CNBC.The comments from Donald Trump came after he stated that he will send trade letters to countries within 1-2 weeks saying, “This is the deal, you can take it or you can leave it.”On the economic front, investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The producer inflation data is expected to show that business owners raised prices of goods and services at their premises. Prior to the day, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May showed that price pressures grew at a moderate pace, which indicates that the impact of Trump’s tariff policy has not yet started feeding into the economy, or business owners released inventory accumulated ahead of the reciprocal tariff announcement.Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to open for lowering interest rates until officials get clarity on the likely consequences of Trump’s economic policies.Technical Analysis: USD/INR skids below 20-day EMAThe USD/INR appears vulnerable near its weekly low of around 85.47 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. The near-term outlook of the pair turns bearish as it slides below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 85.48.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.Looking down, the June 3 low of 85.30 is a key support level for the major. A downside break below the same could expose it to the May 26 low of 84.78. On the upside, the pair could revisit an over 11-week high around 86.70 after breaking above the May 22 high of 86.10. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

07:22 USD/CHF breaks below 0.8200 due to escalating Middle East tensions
USD/CHF extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 0.8160 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the Swiss Franc (CHF) received support from the increased safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF depreciates as the safe-haven demand increases amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.CBS journalist reported that US officials have been told that Israel is fully prepared to launch an operation into Iran.US Consumer Price Index climbed 2.4% YoY in May, coming in slightly below the expected 2.5% rise.USD/CHF extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 0.8160 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the Swiss Franc (CHF) received support from the increased safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.According to a Reuters report, the United States (US) decided to reduce its personnel in the Middle East. CBS News senior White House correspondent Jennifer Jacobs reported that US officials have been told that Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran.US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the US would not permit Iran to have a nuclear weapon, per Reuters. The US and Iran are expected to meet on Sunday for nuclear talks. Axios reporter Barak Ravid reported that “White House envoy Steve Witkoff is going to meet Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Muscat on Sunday and discuss the Iranian response to the recent US proposal, a US official tells me.”Additionally, the USD/CHF depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid increasing odds of the Fed rate cut in September, boosted by cooler-than-expected US inflation in May. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in May, slightly above 2.3% prior but below the market expectations of a 2.5% increase. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% YoY in May, compared to the consensus of 2.9%. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:17 Indonesia Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 121.7 to 117.5 in May
Indonesia Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 121.7 to 117.5 in May

07:08 GBP/USD extends the rally above 1.3550 ahead of UK monthly GDP data
The GBP/USD pair extends its upside to near 1.3580 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The cooler-than-expected US inflation data weighs on the US Dollar (USD) against the Pound Sterling (GBP).

06:40 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Trades below 166.00 after pulling back from eight-month highs
EUR/JPY halts its five-day winning streak, trading around 165.80 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The strengthening of a bullish bias appears as the currency cross moves upwards within an ascending channel pattern, suggested by the technical analysis of the daily chart.

06:00 EUR/USD advances to 1.1530, highest since April 22 amid sustained USD selling
The EUR/USD pair extends its weekly uptrend and climbs to the 1.1530 area or the highest level since April 22 during the Asian session on Thursday. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

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Softer US CPI lifts Fed rate cut bets and weighs on the buck amid the trade uncertainty.The fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders as the focus shifts to the US PPI report. The EUR/USD pair extends its weekly uptrend and climbs to the 1.1530 area or the highest level since April 22 during the Asian session on Thursday. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. The US Dollar (USD) retests the monthly trough amid firming expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. The bets were reaffirmed by softer US consumer inflation figures released on Wednesday, which, along with persistent trade-related uncertainties, continue to weigh on the buck and act as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. US President Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he will set unilateral tariffs and send letters to trading partners in the next week or two, saying this is the deal you can take it or leave it. Trump's comments add a layer of uncertainty and overshadow the optimism over the US-China agreement on a plan to implement the Geneva Consensus and ease trade tensions.The shared currency, on the other hand, draws support from the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish signal that the end of the rate-cutting cycle is nearing. This is seen as another factor that contributes to the bid tone surrounding the EUR/USD pair and validates the near-term positive outlook in the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases from the Eurozone.Meanwhile, the US economic docket features the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The data might influence the USD price dynamics and the EUR/USD pair. That said, any positive USD reaction to the data is likely to be short-lived. Moreover, the aforementioned supportive factors back the case for a further appreciating move for the pair. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

05:42 US Dollar Index falls below 98.50 as softer inflation data boost odds of Fed rate cuts
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second successive day and trading lower at around 98.40 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

05:37 Japanese Yen advances to fresh weekly highs against a broadly weaker USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens for the second consecutive day against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and moves further away from a two-week low touched the previous day.

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Traders now look forward to the release of the US PPI for short-term impetus later this Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens for the second consecutive day against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and moves further away from a two-week low touched the previous day. The initial market reaction to news out of the high-stakes US-China trade talks fades rather quickly in the wake of US President Donald Trump's fresh tariffs threat. This, along with rising geopolitical tensions, tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets and underpins the JPY's safe-haven status. Apart from this, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might push for tighter monetary conditions amid signs of broadening inflation in Japan lend additional support to the JPY. The USD, on the other hand, seems vulnerable near the monthly low as Wednesday's softer US consumer inflation figures reaffirmed bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. This, in turn, drags the USD/JPY pair below the 144.00 mark in the last hour.Japanese Yen is underpinned by a combination of factors; seems poised to appreciate furtherUS President Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he will set unilateral tariffs and send letters to trading partners in the next week or two, saying “this is the deal you can take it or leave it”. Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Congress that it is highly likely that the tariff pause would be extended to countries that are negotiating in good faith.The comments add a layer of uncertainty amid Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policies, overshadowing the optimism over the US-China agreement on a plan to ease export controls and trade tensions. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that China is imposing a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers. In return, US negotiators have agreed to ease some export restrictions on items such as jet engines, related components, and ethane — used in plastics manufacturing. The temporary arrangement reflects a fragile truce between the world's two largest economies as both sides keep options open to escalate if tensions flare again and leverage it in future talks.A Reuters poll indicated that a slight majority of economists expect that the Bank of Japan will forego another interest rate hike this year. Investors, however, seem convinced that the BoJ would proceed with monetary tightening, marking a significant divergence from rising market bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle later this year. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.3% in the previous month to the 2.4% annualized pace in May, missing consensus estimates of 2.5%. Meanwhile, the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% during the reported month, matching April's increase.Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in a nearly 70% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) in September, up from 57% before the data. This leads to a further decline in US Treasury bond yields and drags the US Dollar back to the monthly swing low, which, in turn, exerts pressure on the USD/JPY pair. On the geopolitical front, Israel reportedly may soon launch a strike on Iran's nuclear sites. To prepare for the possibility, the US State Department authorized some staff to leave Iraq, while the Pentagon is allowing military families to depart US bases across the region voluntarily. This comes as Trump expressed doubt about reaching a nuclear deal with Iran.The USD/JPY pair dropped to a fresh weekly low during the Asian session on Thursday, though it managed to rebound a few pips in the last hour and currently trades around the 144.00 mark, still down over 0.35% for the day. Traders now look forward to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which could produce short-term opportunities. USD/JPY could accelerate the downfall once the Asian session low, around 143.70, is brokenFrom a technical perspective, the overnight subsequent pullback from a two-week high and the subsequent slide fall below the 144.55-144.50 horizontal support favors the USD/JPY bears. Moreover, slightly negative oscillators on hourly/daily charts suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the Asian session low, around the 143.70 area, will reaffirm the bearish outlook and pave the way for a fall towards the 143.00 round figure en route to the 142.62-142.60 horizontal support. On the flip side, the 144.55 area, or the Asian session peak, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which a fresh bout of short-covering could allow the USD/JPY pair to make a fresh attempt towards conquering the 145.00 psychological mark. Bulls, however, might wait for a subsequent strength beyond the 145.45 region, or a two-week high touched on Wednesday, before positioning for additional gains. Spot prices might then accelerate the positive momentum towards the 146.00 round figure. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:21 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises above $36.30 amid heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions
The Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers to around $36.30, snapping the two-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provide some support to the white metal.

04:45 Australian Dollar extends losses following Consumer Inflation Expectations data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its losses for the second consecutive day. However, the AUD/USD pair may appreciate as softer US inflation data have boosted bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar declines possibly due to dampened risk sentiment amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations came in at 5% in June, above the previous 4.1% rise.The US Dollar faces challenges as softer CPI data increased the odds of a Fed rate cut in September.The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its losses for the second consecutive day. However, the AUD/USD pair may appreciate as softer US inflation data have boosted bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September.United States (US) President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, saying that the trade deal with China is done and added that it is subject to his and Chinese President Xi Jinping's final approval. "We are getting a total of 55% tariffs, China is getting 10%. Relationship is excellent! Thank you for your attention to this matter," Trump said on Wednesday. Any economic change in China could impact AUD as China and Australia are close trade partners.China will grant only six-month rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers, which suggests that China wants to have control over critical minerals as leverage in future talks, per the Wall Street Journal (gated).The risk-sensitive AUD may find challenges as the tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, after the United States advised some Americans to leave the Middle East. President Trump said on Wednesday that the US would not permit Iran to have a nuclear weapon, per Reuters. Moreover, CBS News senior White House correspondent Jennifer Jacobs reported that US officials have been told that Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran.Australian Dollar depreciates despite weaker US Dollar amid softer inflation dataThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second successive day and trading lower at around 98.30 at the time of writing. The Greenback depreciates as cooler-than-expected US inflation in May has increased the odds of the Fed rate cuts.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% YoY in May, slightly above 2.3% prior but below the market expectations of a 2.5% increase. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% YoY in May, compared to the consensus of 2.9%.On Wednesday, President Trump stated that he would like to extend the trade talks deadline, but doesn't think it will be necessary. Trump further stated that he will set unilateral tariff rates within two weeks.The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit extended an earlier, temporary respite on Tuesday for the government as it presses a challenge to a lower court ruling last month that blocked the tariffs. The federal appeals court has ruled that President Trump’s broad tariffs can remain in effect while legal appeals continue, per Bloomberg.China's Trade Balance (CNY) arrived at CNY743.56 billion in May, expanding from the previous surplus of CNY689.99 billion. Meanwhile, Exports rose 6.3% YoY against 9.3% in April. The country’s imports fell 2.1% YoY in the same period, from a 0.8% rise recorded previously.Australia’s Trade Balance posted a 5,413M surplus month-over-month in April, below the 6,100M expected and 6,892M (revised from 6,900M) in the previous reading. Exports declined by 2.4% MoM in April, against a 7.2% rise prior (revised from 7.6%). Meanwhile, Imports rose by 1.1%, compared to a decline of 2.4% (revised from -2.2%) seen in March. China’s Caixin Services PMI rose to 51.1 in May as expected, from 50.7 in April.Australian Dollar tests 0.6500 within crucial support zoneThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6500 on Tuesday. The daily chart’s technical analysis suggests a potential weakening of the bullish bias as the pair attempts to break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Additionally, the pair is slightly positioned above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA); breaking below would weaken the short-term price momentum. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is remaining above the 50 mark, indicating a bullish bias.The AUD/USD pair may target an immediate barrier at a seven-month high of 0.6538, which was reached on June 5. Further advances could prompt the pair to explore the region around the eight-month high at 0.6687, aligned with the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6720.On the downside, the initial support appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.6492, aligned with the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6490. A break below this crucial support zone could weaken the bullish bias and lead the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6419.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.27% -0.27% -0.45% -0.02% 0.26% 0.13% -0.48% EUR 0.27% 0.00% -0.18% 0.26% 0.51% 0.41% -0.18% GBP 0.27% -0.01% -0.20% 0.24% 0.49% 0.39% -0.22% JPY 0.45% 0.18% 0.20% 0.41% 0.68% 0.52% -0.03% CAD 0.02% -0.26% -0.24% -0.41% 0.28% 0.13% -0.46% AUD -0.26% -0.51% -0.49% -0.68% -0.28% -0.10% -0.70% NZD -0.13% -0.41% -0.39% -0.52% -0.13% 0.10% -0.60% CHF 0.48% 0.18% 0.22% 0.03% 0.46% 0.70% 0.60% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:27 WTI climbs to near $67.00 on escalating Middle East tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $67.00 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price climbs to near two-month highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1803 vs. 7.1815 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1803 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1815 and 7.1703 Reuters estimate.

04:01 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations up to 5% in June from previous 4.1%
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations up to 5% in June from previous 4.1%

04:01 China grants six-month limit on its ease of rare-earth export licenses - WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter, that China is putting a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers.

03:51 US officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran - Reuters
The United States (US) is scaling back the number of personnel in the Middle East as the tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, per Reuters. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the US would not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

03:17 NZD/USD gathers strength above 0.6000 on softer US CPI data
The NZD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.6035 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Cooler-than-expected US inflation data and rising bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September exert some selling pressure on the Greenback.

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Softer US inflation data undermines the US dollar and acts as a headwind for the pair. Trump said the trade deal with China is ‘done,’ though details from China were lacking.The NZD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.6035 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Cooler-than-expected US inflation data and rising bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September exert some selling pressure on the Greenback. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be the highlights later on Thursday. US inflation rose in May by less than expected for the fourth consecutive month, weighing on the US Dollar (USD). The US CPI rose 2.4% YoY in May versus 2.3% prior, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed on Wednesday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 2.5%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% YoY in May, compared to the consensus of 2.9%. Cooler-than-expected US inflation in May has prompted traders to raise their bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. Traders of short-term interest rate futures have priced in nearly a 68% odds that the Fed would cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) by September, compared with 57% before the US CPI data. They now also see a still small but rising chance of an earlier rate cut, putting about an 18% odds of that happening in July versus about 13% earlier on Wednesday.US President Donald Trump said that the trade deal with China is ‘done,’ although details and confirmation from China were lacking. Additionally, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that tariffs on China will be at the current 55% without additional increases. Positive developments surrounding US-China trade talks also underpin the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

02:54 Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ) below expectations (0.8) in 2Q: Actual (-4.8)
Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ) below expectations (0.8) in 2Q: Actual (-4.8)

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥336.1B to ¥180.2B in June 6
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥336.1B to ¥180.2B in June 6

02:34 Gold overtakes Euro as global reserve asset as central banks buy - Bloomberg
Gold has overtaken the Euro (EUR) as the second-largest asset in the reserves of the world’s central banks, driven by record purchases and rising prices, according to the European Central Bank (ECB).

02:21 US President Donald Trump says willing to extend trade talk deadline, doesn't think it's necessary
US President Donald Trump said late Wednesday that he would be willing to extend the trade talks deadline but doesn't think it will be necessary. Trump further stated that he will set unilateral tariff rates within two weeks.

02:04 USD/CAD softens near 1.3650 on poor US inflation data, rising bets of Fed rate cut
The USD/CAD pair remains on the defensive around 1.3665 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) due to poor US inflation data and rising bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September.

02:01 United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance came in at -8%, below expectations (-3%) in May
United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance came in at -8%, below expectations (-3%) in May

01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 0.9% above expectations (-0.3%) in May
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 0.9% above expectations (-0.3%) in May

01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM): -0.2% (May) vs previous 0%
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM): -0.2% (May) vs previous 0%

01:29 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Hits monthly high, retreats below 94.00 as bearish signal emerges
The AUD/JPY failed to clear the 94.00 resistance level and dropped by over 0.56% on Wednesday, following a monthly high of 94.73, after an upbeat risk mood and a weaker-than-expected US inflation report. At the time of writing, the pair traded near 93.90, virtually unchanged.

01:14 GBP/USD rebounds to hold firm to congestion ahead of key US PPI inflation
GBP/USD found some bullish tailwinds on Wednesday, erasing the previous session’s gains and climbing back into the 1.3550 level.

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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

00:55 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD stumbles below $36.50 despite softer US CPI
Silver price reverses course on Wednesday as the North American session ends, edging down 0.87%. Even though US inflation dipped in May, which would have warranted rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and driven the US dollar lower, it failed to underpin the grey metal. XAG/USD trades at $36.21.

00:17 EUR/USD soars on soft US CPI, closes in on 1.1500
The EUR/USD surged during the North American session but remains shy of clearing the 1.1500 figure, following the release of a softer-than-expected inflation report in the United States (US), which could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce borrowing costs in the near term.

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At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1482, up by over 0.50%.US data revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May fell short of estimates as prices continued to trend lower. Following the data release, US President Donald Trump posted on his social network that the Fed should lower the fed funds rate by one whole percentage point.Although inflation edged lower, some analysts project that households in the upcoming month will feel the impact of tariffs. Meanwhile, positive trade news regarding negotiations between the US and China emerged, as the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) revealed that China is putting a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers.Meanwhile, in the Eurozone (EU), European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers made headlines, although they failed to move the EUR/USD pair. The ECB’s Vujcic said that he is looking for more clarity on trade, while Kazaks noted that it is “quite likely that 2% inflation will require some further cuts for fine-tuning,” said via Econostream on X.The ECB Chief Economist, Philip Lane, added that last week’s rate cut helped clarify the bank’s policy stance to bring inflation toward its target.Ahead in the week, the EUR/USD is expected to be greatly influenced by the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, along with the Initial Jobless Claims report. Across the pond, the EU’s schedule is scarce on economic data, but ECB officials led by Vice-President Luis de Guindos will cross the wires.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD soars past 1.1480 as traders shift toward US PPI dataEUR/USD appears poised to test the 1.1500 mark in the near term as positive news about US-China talks could increase appetite for riskier assets and weigh on the US Dollar.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented that trade fairness with China could be achieved through reduced exports to the US or by rebalancing the world’s largest economies. He added that the Trump administration is committed to maintaining the US Dollar’s reserve currency status.US inflation came in softer than expected in May. Headline CPI rose 2.4% YoY, slightly above April’s 2.3% but below the 2.5% forecast. Core CPI held steady at 2.8% YoY, suggesting underlying inflation remains stable but persistent.The PPI for May is projected to increase from 2.4% to 2.6% YoY. Underlying PPI figures are expected to remain at 3.1% higher, unchanged compared to April’s print.Financial market players do not expect that the ECB would reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the July monetary policy meeting.Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD bulls eyes 1.15 and the YTD highFrom a technical perspective, the uptrend is expected to continue as buyers target a clear break above the 1.1500 figure. This will expose the year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.1572, ahead of 1.1600. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, indicating an upward direction, which suggests that buyers are gaining momentum.The less likely scenario on the downside is that the EUR/USD needs to clear the 1.1450 area. This would set the pair for a pullback toward the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1346 before testing 1.1300. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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14:06 USD/CHF accelerates its reversal to levels near 0.8100 The US Dollar is being hammered across the board, with the safe-haven CHF rallying on risk aversion.

13:36 A sobering ECB report on the role of the EUR – Commerzbank Some ECB officials, including the President herself, have recently made no secret of their ambitions to establish the euro as the world's new reserve currency, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

13:32 EUR/USD breaks short-term channel – Société Générale EUR/USD is regaining upside traction after defending its 50-DMA and breaking above a short-term channel, with momentum indicators supporting a test of key resistance levels, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

13:28 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) dipped from previous 0.6% to 0.4% in May United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) dipped from previous 0.6% to 0.4% in May

13:26 USD: The US-China deal – Commerzbank The US dollar depreciated yesterday following the weaker-than-expected US inflation figures and the EUR/USD exchange rate was able to rise towards its April high this morning.

13:21 EU: Skeleton of a US deal – Standard Chartered US-EU deal is achievable; it may come after 9 July, but tariff reprieve is likely to be extended. EU likely to consider unilateral tariff cuts and streamlining of regulatory burden to mollify Trump.

13:02 Ireland HICP (YoY) meets forecasts (1.4%) in May Ireland HICP (YoY) meets forecasts (1.4%) in May

13:01 Ireland HICP (전월 대비) down to 0% in May from previous 0.4% Ireland HICP (전월 대비) down to 0% in May from previous 0.4%

13:01 Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0% (May) vs previous 0.4% Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0% (May) vs previous 0.4%

13:00 Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 2.2% to 1.7% in May Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 2.2% to 1.7% in May

13:00 DXY: Data matters – OCBC US Dollar (USD) fell on softer than expected CPI. This puts focus on PPI data tonight (8:30pm) before the lead up to FOMC next week. DXY was last at 98.40 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:58 USD: Dollar's glass is half empty – ING It is fair to say that dollar price action has been poor.

12:53 USD/JPY extends losses to 143.70 amid broad-based Dollar weakness US Dollar is among the weakest G8 currencies on Thursday.

12:32 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:29 ECB’s Schnabel: Monetary policy cycle is coming to an end European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday, “monetary policy cycle is coming to an end.”

12:26 EUR/USD: ECB boosting appeal – OCBC Euro (EUR) extended its move above 1.15-handle on broad US Dollar (USD) softness overnight (post-CPI) and ECB comments. EUR was last at 1.1552 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:19 Japan’s Trade Negotiator Akazawa: Any discussions on US Treasuries would be led by Kato Japan’s Chief Trade Negotiator and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Thursday that “any discussions on US Treasuries would be led by Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato.”

12:17 USD/MXN rises toward 19.00 after rebounding from 10-month lows USD/MXN edges higher after hitting a 10-month low at 18.82, which was recorded on Wednesday, currently trading around 18.90 during the European hours on Thursday.

12:01 Antipodeans: Consolidating upward trend – ING The Australian and New Zealand dollars are consolidating recent gains as US-China trade tensions have abated, while the USD failed to regain much ground, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

11:59 AUD/USD extends correction to near 0.6480 amid uncertainty over US-China trade relations The AUD/USD pair slides to near 0.6480 during European trading hours on Thursday, following the corrective move from an over six-month high of 0.6545 posted the previous day.

11:54 GBP: A little underperformance coming through – ING Some softer UK April GDP data this morning has seen sterling come under more pressure, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

11:44 USD/CAD bounces up from lows but remains on the defensive below 1.3700 The US Dollar is posting a mild recovery against its Canadian counterpart on Thursday’s European trading session.

11:44 EUR: Everyone loves the Euro – ING The Euro (EUR) has been doing well this week and seems to be the big winner from the de-dollarisation story, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

10:46 ECB's Simkus: The ECB has arrived at neutral level of rates European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Thursday that “the ECB has arrived at neutral level of rates.”

10:43 ECB’s Villeroy: No fixed position on future rate decisions European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that there is no fixed position on future rate decisions.”

10:35 Pound Sterling slumps as UK economy shrinks in April The Pound Sterling (GBP) falls sharply against its major peers on Thursday as the United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the economy shrank at a faster-than-expected pace in April.

10:32 EUR/USD rises to seven-week highs as Fed easing hopes, tariff threats hit the USD The EUR/USD pair has broken above the range of the last few days and is trading above 1.1500 for the first time in almost two months on Thursday.

10:30 WTI falls to near $66.50, downside seems limited due to escalating Middle East tensions West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price pulled back from a two-month high of $67.82, currently trading around $66.50 per barrel during the early European hours on Thursday.

09:55 Forex Today: US Dollar stays offered as focus shifts to PPI inflation data Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 12:

09:28 China’s Foreign Minister says government will always honour its commitments Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Thursday that the government will always honour its commitments, adding that he hopes the US can work with China to implement what was agreed between the two presidents.

09:13 EUR/GBP gathers strength to near 0.8500 on weaker UK GDP data The EUR/GBP cross gains momentum to around 0.8495 during the early European session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) after the release of UK growth numbers.

09:08 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $66.53 per barrel, down from Wednesday’s close at $67.20.

09:03 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance dipped from previous £-3.696B to £-7.026B in April United Kingdom Total Trade Balance dipped from previous £-3.696B to £-7.026B in April

09:02 United Kingdom Index of Services (3M/3M) below expectations (0.7%) in April: Actual (0.6%) United Kingdom Index of Services (3M/3M) below expectations (0.7%) in April: Actual (0.6%)

09:01 UK GDP falls 0.3% MoM in April vs. -0.1% expected The UK economy contracted in April, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declining 0.3%, having increased by 0.2% in March, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday.

09:01 United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance registered at £-23.206B, below expectations (£-20.5B) in April United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance registered at £-23.206B, below expectations (£-20.5B) in April

09:01 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -0.6%, below expectations (-0.5%) in April United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -0.6%, below expectations (-0.5%) in April

09:00 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) below forecasts (-0.2%) in April: Actual (-0.3%) United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) below forecasts (-0.2%) in April: Actual (-0.3%)

09:00 United Kingdom Trade Balance; non-EU dipped from previous £-6.834B to £-8.649B in April United Kingdom Trade Balance; non-EU dipped from previous £-6.834B to £-8.649B in April

09:00 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in April United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in April

09:00 United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance came in at £-23.21B below forecasts (£-20.5B) in April United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance came in at £-23.21B below forecasts (£-20.5B) in April

09:00 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (MoM) came in at -0.3%, below expectations (-0.1%) in April United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (MoM) came in at -0.3%, below expectations (-0.1%) in April

09:00 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) came in at -0.9%, below expectations (-0.8%) in April United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) came in at -0.9%, below expectations (-0.8%) in April

08:13 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Falls to near 1.3650, eight-month lows The USD/CAD pair is retracing its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 1.3660 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

08:12 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Remains depressed near mid-195.00s ahead of UK monthly GDP The GBP/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through.

07:58 USD/CNH retraces to near 7.20 as investors seeks more details on US-China trade deal The USD/CNH pair gives back all gains made on Wednesday and slides to near 7.18 during Asian trading hours on Thursday.

07:52 Gold price refreshes weekly top amid the global flight to safety, weaker USD Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through buyers for the second straight day and climbs to a one-week high, around the $3,377-3,378 region during the Asian session on Thursday.

07:51 FX option expiries for Jun 12 NY cut FX option expiries for Jun 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:30 Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) dipped from previous 4.1% to 3.3% in May Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) dipped from previous 4.1% to 3.3% in May

07:29 USD/INR flattens while Indian Rupee underperforms ahead of India’s CPI data The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a slightly weak note against its major peers on Thursday ahead of the Indian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be published at 10:30 GMT.

07:17 Indonesia Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 121.7 to 117.5 in May Indonesia Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 121.7 to 117.5 in May

07:08 GBP/USD extends the rally above 1.3550 ahead of UK monthly GDP data The GBP/USD pair extends its upside to near 1.3580 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The cooler-than-expected US inflation data weighs on the US Dollar (USD) against the Pound Sterling (GBP).

05:37 Japanese Yen advances to fresh weekly highs against a broadly weaker USD The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens for the second consecutive day against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and moves further away from a two-week low touched the previous day.

04:27 WTI climbs to near $67.00 on escalating Middle East tensions West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $67.00 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price climbs to near two-month highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1803 vs. 7.1815 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1803 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1815 and 7.1703 Reuters estimate.

04:01 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations up to 5% in June from previous 4.1% Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations up to 5% in June from previous 4.1%

04:01 China grants six-month limit on its ease of rare-earth export licenses - WSJ The Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter, that China is putting a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers.

02:54 Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ) below expectations (0.8) in 2Q: Actual (-4.8) Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ) below expectations (0.8) in 2Q: Actual (-4.8)

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥336.1B to ¥180.2B in June 6 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥336.1B to ¥180.2B in June 6

02:34 Gold overtakes Euro as global reserve asset as central banks buy - Bloomberg Gold has overtaken the Euro (EUR) as the second-largest asset in the reserves of the world’s central banks, driven by record purchases and rising prices, according to the European Central Bank (ECB).

02:01 United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance came in at -8%, below expectations (-3%) in May United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance came in at -8%, below expectations (-3%) in May

01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 0.9% above expectations (-0.3%) in May New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 0.9% above expectations (-0.3%) in May

01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM): -0.2% (May) vs previous 0% New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM): -0.2% (May) vs previous 0%

01:14 GBP/USD rebounds to hold firm to congestion ahead of key US PPI inflation GBP/USD found some bullish tailwinds on Wednesday, erasing the previous session’s gains and climbing back into the 1.3550 level.

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