Forex News Timeline
23:43 Australian Dollar pulls back as US Dollar attempts recovery from multi-year lows
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) gave up its earlier strength on Tuesday, falling from session highs near 0.6340 to trade closer to the 0.6280 area during North American hours. The reversal came as the US Dollar Index (DXY) attempted a modest bounce off its three-year low near the 99.00 mark.
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The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) gave up its earlier strength on Tuesday, falling from session highs near 0.6340 to trade closer to the 0.6280 area during North American hours. The reversal came as the US Dollar Index (DXY) attempted a modest bounce off its three-year low near the 99.00 mark. This shift in tone followed remarks from US officials suggesting reduced recession risks and progress on trade negotiations with Europe, though concerns remain over the unresolved US-China tariff fight.Daily digest market movers: USD sentiment fluctuates on mixed economic signalsKevin Hassett from the US National Economic Council dismissed fears of a recession, boosting the Greenback's tone temporarily.Sector-specific US tariffs are still likely, especially targeting electronics and chips, despite a general 90-day tariff pause.Trade talks with the EU show progress, helping limit broader market fears of a full-scale global tariff escalation.The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index posted a steep drop, suggesting households are concerned about rising costs.Treasury yields remain under pressure, reflecting continued bond demand amid global growth concerns.The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable due to its export reliance on China and the escalating trade tensions.Investors await key US Retail Sales on Wednesday and Australia’s jobs data on Thursday to provide directional cues.
Technical analysisTechnically, AUD/USD shows signs of near-term bullish momentum despite Monday’s pullback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 55, reflecting a neutral-to-positive tone, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print a green bar and issues a fresh buy signal. The pair is currently trading in the middle of its daily range between 0.6274 and 0.6342, lacking a decisive breakout.Shorter-term moving averages such as the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support the upside, while the 100-day SMA also aligns with bullish pressure. However, the 200-day SMA at 0.6483 remains a ceiling that could limit further rallies.Support levels are identified at 0.6291, 0.6286 and 0.6281. Resistance sits at 0.6324, followed by 0.6413 and the longer-term cap at 0.6483. The technical outlook leans bullish in the short run, but a clear break above 0.6340 is needed to confirm continuation.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) gave up its earlier strength on Tuesday, falling from session highs near 0.6340 to trade closer to the 0.6280 area during North American hours. The reversal came as the US Dollar Index (DXY) attempted a modest bounce off its three-year low near the 99.00 mark. This shift in tone followed remarks from US officials suggesting reduced recession risks and progress on trade negotiations with Europe, though concerns remain over the unresolved US-China tariff fight.Daily digest market movers: USD sentiment fluctuates on mixed economic signalsKevin Hassett from the US National Economic Council dismissed fears of a recession, boosting the Greenback's tone temporarily.Sector-specific US tariffs are still likely, especially targeting electronics and chips, despite a general 90-day tariff pause.Trade talks with the EU show progress, helping limit broader market fears of a full-scale global tariff escalation.The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index posted a steep drop, suggesting households are concerned about rising costs.Treasury yields remain under pressure, reflecting continued bond demand amid global growth concerns.The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable due to its export reliance on China and the escalating trade tensions.Investors await key US Retail Sales on Wednesday and Australia’s jobs data on Thursday to provide directional cues.
Technical analysisTechnically, AUD/USD shows signs of near-term bullish momentum despite Monday’s pullback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 55, reflecting a neutral-to-positive tone, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print a green bar and issues a fresh buy signal. The pair is currently trading in the middle of its daily range between 0.6274 and 0.6342, lacking a decisive breakout.Shorter-term moving averages such as the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support the upside, while the 100-day SMA also aligns with bullish pressure. However, the 200-day SMA at 0.6483 remains a ceiling that could limit further rallies.Support levels are identified at 0.6291, 0.6286 and 0.6281. Resistance sits at 0.6324, followed by 0.6413 and the longer-term cap at 0.6483. The technical outlook leans bullish in the short run, but a clear break above 0.6340 is needed to confirm continuation.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
23:38 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock above expectations (-1.68M) in April 11: Actual (2.4M)
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock above expectations (-1.68M) in April 11: Actual (2.4M)
22:30 USD/CAD price analysis: Canadian Dollar struggles near 1.40 amid soft inflation and trade uncertainty
USD/CAD hovered near the 1.4000 zone on Tuesday, consolidating after recovering from earlier lows around the 1.3850 region. The Canadian Dollar failed to gain traction despite a cooler-than-expected inflation report for March, while traders brace for the Bank of Canada’s policy decision.
USD/CAD trades near the 1.4000 area after bouncing from mid-1.38s earlier this week.Softer Canadian inflation and Powell's tariff warnings pressure the Canadian Dollar outlook.Key resistance stands at 1.4060; technical backdrop skews bearish despite recent rebound.USD/CAD hovered near the 1.4000 zone on Tuesday, consolidating after recovering from earlier lows around the 1.3850 region. The Canadian Dollar failed to gain traction despite a cooler-than-expected inflation report for March, while traders brace for the Bank of Canada’s policy decision. Meanwhile, the US Dollar attempted a mild rebound after days of losses tied to ongoing trade tensions with China.Canada’s inflation rate slowed to 2.3% annually in March, below expectations and down from 2.6% previously. Month-over-month, CPI rose just 0.3%, missing the 0.7% forecast. The data has slightly softened market expectations that the BoC will hold rates steady at 2.75% in its first policy meeting since June. Markets will closely watch Governor Macklem’s tone, especially as uncertainty rises over how Trump’s aggressive tariff policy may ripple into Canada’s economic outlook.On the US side, the Greenback faces persistent pressure from global investors as Trump’s tariff escalation continues to undermine confidence. According to Commerzbank analysts, the complexity and unpredictability of current US trade policy are raising inflation risks while damaging trust among global trading partners. Fed Chair Powell echoed these concerns, warning that the inflationary effects of tariffs could be stronger and more prolonged than initially expected. He added that it’s too early to determine the right path for interest rates and that the Fed is in no rush to act.Technically, USD/CAD shows bearish signals overall, even with a modest gain on the day. The pair trades near the top of its daily range between 1.3850 and 1.3980. The Relative Strength Index sits near 37 in neutral territory, while the MACD prints a sell signal. Despite some mixed signals from momentum indicators, moving averages reinforce the downside outlook: the 20-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, along with the 10-day EMA, all suggest further weakness ahead. Support rests at 1.3827, while resistance levels are located at 1.4002, 1.4060, and 1.4063.
USD/CAD technical analysis
USD/CAD technical analysis
22:30 USD/JPY Price Analysis: Modest recovery fails to alter broader bearish outlook
The USD/JPY pair saw a slight rise on Tuesday, hovering around the 143 area as it edged higher within its daily range. The modest intraday rebound comes ahead of the Asian session but has yet to challenge the broader bearish signals dominating the chart.
USD/JPY trades near the 143 zone, extending mild gains ahead of the Asian sessionDespite the uptick, technical indicators and moving averages continue to reflect a bearish structureSupport sits at 142.41, while resistance levels cap gains near 145.79 and 146.62The USD/JPY pair saw a slight rise on Tuesday, hovering around the 143 area as it edged higher within its daily range. The modest intraday rebound comes ahead of the Asian session but has yet to challenge the broader bearish signals dominating the chart.Technical indicators remain conflicted. The Relative Strength Index is neutral at 32.19, holding near the lower bound without triggering oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD continues to print a bearish crossover, reinforcing downside pressure. A contrasting view comes from the Williams Percent Range at -88.24, which suggests the pair may be oversold in the short term and due for a bounce. The Ultimate Oscillator at 52.72 remains neutral, offering no clear bias.The dominant trend remains negative, especially when analyzing moving averages. The 10-day exponential and simple moving averages at 145.47 and 145.79, respectively, cap near-term upside. Longer-term averages—20-day at 147.81, 100-day at 152.02, and 200-day at 150.77—continue to slope downward, affirming persistent selling pressure.
Daily chart
Daily chart
21:57 Forex Today: The BoC meets, and Chief Powell speaks
The Greenback’s deep sell-off appears to have taken a breather on Tuesday despite trade tensions remained well in place, all against the backdrop of rising expectations prior to the release of US Retail Sales and the speech of Chair Powell on Wednesday.
The Greenback’s deep sell-off appears to have taken a breather on Tuesday despite trade tensions remained well in place, all against the backdrop of rising expectations prior to the release of US Retail Sales and the speech of Chair Powell on Wednesday.Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 16: The US Dollar Index (DXY) garnered some decent upside traction and attempted a recovery that broke above the key 100.00 hurdle. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications is due, ahead of Retail Sales, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Capacity Utilisation, Business Inventories, the NAHB Housing Market Index, Net TIC Flows and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. Additionally, the Fed’s Powell is due to speak along with Cook, and Hammack.EUR/USD continued to suffer some renewed selling pressure and revisited the sub-1.1300 contention zone. The EMU’s Current Account Results and the final Inflation Rate are expected on the domestic calendar.GBP/USD maintained its bullish stance in place and climbed to new multi-month highs around 1.3250. The key UK Inflation Rate takes centre stage across the Channel.USD/JPY navigated with a positive direction above the 143.00 region amid the ongoing multi-month leg lower. The Reuters Tankan Index and Machinery Orders will be published.The march north in AUD/USD remained unabated on Tuesday, this time coming closer to the key resistance zone around the 0.6400 zone. Next on tap on the docket will be the Westpac Leading Index.WTI prices alternated gains with losses below the $62.00 mark per barrel following the pick-up in the US Dollar and the expected lower demand of crude oil signalled by the IEA.Prices of Gold clinched modest gains above the $3,200 mark per troy ounce despite the mild uptick in the Greenback and easing tensions on the tariffs front. Silver prices retreated marginally after retesting recent multi-day highs near $32.50 per ounce.
21:21 Dow Jones struggles near 40,000 as China retaliates, targeting Boeing
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) advanced earlier in the North American session by 0.3% or over 120 points. Nevertheless, optimism among investors faded recently, even though the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell below 30 after spiking to a high near 60 last week.
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Nevertheless, optimism among investors faded recently, even though the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell below 30 after spiking to a high near 60 last week.DJIA trims gains after early rally; volatility eases but trade tensions and tariff risks keep bulls cautiousUS President Donald Trump announced that they will soon impose tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals and reiterated that the EU has been taking advantage of the US. Trump added that he is looking to help car companies and that some things will come up.Meanwhile, China ordered domestic airlines to freeze all new Boeing jet deliveries and halted purchases of US aircraft parts. Last week, Washington excluded major electronic categories and smartphones from the 145% duties on Chinese goods. Nevertheless, comments from US President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested these exemptions might only be temporary.The US economic docket is light, with Retail Sales expected to be released on Wednesday. Traders should be aware that the trading week will be shortened due to the Easter holiday on Friday.Dow Jones price forecastThe Dow remains downward biased even though the index has clung to the 40,000 figure, underpinned mainly by an upbeat market mood. However, US President Trump comments could exert downward pressure and pave the way for a ‘bearish’ continuation below the 40,000 figure.A drop below the latter will expose the April 14 low of 39,877, followed by the April 7 swing low of 36,480. On the other hand, if bulls stepped in and push prices past 40,500 the immediate level to challenge will be April 10, high at 40,909. Once cleared, 41,000 is up next. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
21:00 White House: A deal with China remains on the table
Karoline Leavitt, the White House Press Secretary, commented on the current US-China tariffs scenario:
Karoline Leavitt, the White House Press Secretary, commented on the current US-China tariffs scenario:Key TakeawaysWe have more than 15 trade deal proposals that are actively being considered. We believe that we can announce some very soon. Ball is in China's court. We don't have to make a deal with them. Trump open to deal with China. Trump maintains position on Canada.
20:53 US Dollar rebounds modestly but uncertainty looms over long-term prospects
The US Dollar (USD) gains limited ground on Tuesday as the US Dollar Index (DXY) is climbing back to the 100 region during North American trading hours. The index bounced from its recent three-year low amid oversold conditions, but sentiment remains fragile.
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The US Dollar (USD) gains limited ground on Tuesday as the US Dollar Index (DXY) is climbing back to the 100 region during North American trading hours. The index bounced from its recent three-year low amid oversold conditions, but sentiment remains fragile. Although the Greenback posted gains against major peers like the Euro, markets remain wary due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariff policy shifts by US President Donald Trump. Traders are also digesting mixed commentary from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and soft economic data, all unfolding during Tuesday’s volatile session.Daily digest market movers: US Dollar rebounds from deep lowsDXY rebounded to the 100 zone after plunging to a three-year trough near 99.00, with gains mostly driven by technical correction and oversold conditions.Market participants remain unconvinced by the USD’s recovery amid uncertainty triggered by sudden shifts in trade policy, including temporary pauses and new exemptions for some imported goods.Analysts flagged that repeated reversals in tariff enforcement are undermining confidence in the US Dollar’s structural appeal, especially as China remains excluded from recent exemptions.On the policy front, Fed Governor Christopher Waller voiced support for interest rate cuts if recession risks grow, even as inflation expectations remain elevated.Survey data continues to paint a fragile picture, with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 50.8 and one-year inflation expectations climbing to 6.7%—levels last seen in mid-2022.
Technical analysis
The US Dollar Index remains in a technically fragile state despite its mild rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 29.82, signaling a potential reversal from oversold territory. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still prints a sell signal, suggesting the broader bearish trend is intact. Key moving averages reinforce the downside: the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located at 102.97, with the 100-day at 106.26 and the 200-day at 104.71—all sloping downward. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and SMA—both clustered around the 101.50–101.80 region—represent the next major resistance zone. Initial support lies at 99.21. A break above 101.80 would be needed to shift short-term momentum. Until then, the bias remains tilted to the downside.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
The US Dollar (USD) gains limited ground on Tuesday as the US Dollar Index (DXY) is climbing back to the 100 region during North American trading hours. The index bounced from its recent three-year low amid oversold conditions, but sentiment remains fragile. Although the Greenback posted gains against major peers like the Euro, markets remain wary due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariff policy shifts by US President Donald Trump. Traders are also digesting mixed commentary from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and soft economic data, all unfolding during Tuesday’s volatile session.Daily digest market movers: US Dollar rebounds from deep lowsDXY rebounded to the 100 zone after plunging to a three-year trough near 99.00, with gains mostly driven by technical correction and oversold conditions.Market participants remain unconvinced by the USD’s recovery amid uncertainty triggered by sudden shifts in trade policy, including temporary pauses and new exemptions for some imported goods.Analysts flagged that repeated reversals in tariff enforcement are undermining confidence in the US Dollar’s structural appeal, especially as China remains excluded from recent exemptions.On the policy front, Fed Governor Christopher Waller voiced support for interest rate cuts if recession risks grow, even as inflation expectations remain elevated.Survey data continues to paint a fragile picture, with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 50.8 and one-year inflation expectations climbing to 6.7%—levels last seen in mid-2022.
Technical analysis
The US Dollar Index remains in a technically fragile state despite its mild rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 29.82, signaling a potential reversal from oversold territory. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still prints a sell signal, suggesting the broader bearish trend is intact. Key moving averages reinforce the downside: the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located at 102.97, with the 100-day at 106.26 and the 200-day at 104.71—all sloping downward. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and SMA—both clustered around the 101.50–101.80 region—represent the next major resistance zone. Initial support lies at 99.21. A break above 101.80 would be needed to shift short-term momentum. Until then, the bias remains tilted to the downside.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
18:55 GBP/USD hits 6-month high above 1.3200 as markets shun USD amid tariff turmoil
The Pound Sterling rose and refreshed six-month highs against the US Dollar on Tuesday as the financial markets' narrative remains linked to the US imposing tariffs. Cable shrugged off soft UK jobs data; hence, the GBP/USD rallied 0.36% and traded at 1.3233.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Sterling rallies despite unchanged UK unemployment at 4.4%, as strong wage growth complicates BoE’s easing path.US Dollar Index drops over 5% in three weeks as safe-haven demand fades and tariff risks grow.UK inflation data and Powell’s speech in focus; UK remains exempt from US tariffs—for now. The Pound Sterling rose and refreshed six-month highs against the US Dollar on Tuesday as the financial markets' narrative remains linked to the US imposing tariffs. Cable shrugged off soft UK jobs data; hence, the GBP/USD rallied 0.36% and traded at 1.3233.GBP/USD climbs shrugging off soft UK jobs data as BoE rate cut bets build and USD continues to slideMarket mood remains positive, to the detriment of safe-haven currencies like the Greenback, which has depreciated over 5.34% during the last three weeks, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY).The UK’s labor market data showed that the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.4% in February, as expected and aligned with analysts’ estimates. Nevertheless, wages remained strong, exerting pressure on the Bank of England (BoE), which had refrained from easing policy, justifying that salaries remained high.Despite this, market participants had primarily prized in a 90% chance that the BoE will cut rates at the May meeting, followed by another two cuts, via the interest rates futures market.In the meantime, the UK has remained outside US President Donald Trump’s scope to apply tariffs on British goods, which would exert pressure on the economy, opening the door for a slowdown.Nevertheless, growing concerns about a global recession spurred by the trade war keep investors’ sentiments deteriorating.GBP/USD traders are looking for the release of the latest inflation figures in the UK. Across the pond, the US docket will feature Fed speakers, with investors focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookAfter climbing for six straight days, the GBP/USD has hit a year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.3251, but traders have retreated somewhat to the 1.3220s area. A daily close above the YTD high will expose the 1.3300 mark. On the flip side, the first support would be the April 14 high of 1.3200, followed by the same day low of 1.3163. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.55% -0.25% 0.10% 0.58% -0.52% -0.62% 0.76% EUR -0.55% -0.79% -0.42% 0.04% -1.00% -1.16% 0.23% GBP 0.25% 0.79% 0.38% 0.83% -0.20% -0.37% 1.02% JPY -0.10% 0.42% -0.38% 0.47% -0.59% -0.87% 0.64% CAD -0.58% -0.04% -0.83% -0.47% -1.05% -1.20% 0.19% AUD 0.52% 1.00% 0.20% 0.59% 1.05% -0.17% 1.23% NZD 0.62% 1.16% 0.37% 0.87% 1.20% 0.17% 1.40% CHF -0.76% -0.23% -1.02% -0.64% -0.19% -1.23% -1.40% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
18:50 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair dips near range lows but maintains bullish momentum
The EUR/USD pair eased slightly on Tuesday’s session after the European close, slipping from earlier intraday highs and hovering near the lower end of its daily range. Price action trades around the 1.13 zone, mildly lower on the day, though the broader technical bias continues to favor buyers.
EUR/USD was seen trading around the 1.13 zone after easing from session highsDespite the mild decline, the bullish outlook remains intact with price above key averagesTechnical support is seen around 1.1128 and 1.1087, while resistance looms near the 1.1415 areaThe EUR/USD pair eased slightly on Tuesday’s session after the European close, slipping from earlier intraday highs and hovering near the lower end of its daily range. Price action trades around the 1.13 zone, mildly lower on the day, though the broader technical bias continues to favor buyers.Momentum indicators are mixed. The Relative Strength Index stands at 71.67, signaling overbought conditions and hinting at possible exhaustion, while the MACD still prints a buy signal. Meanwhile, the Williams Percent Range at -22.75 and the Stochastic RSI Fast at 91.85 remain neutral, offering limited short-term directional cues.Still, moving averages clearly support the bullish stance. The 10-day EMA at 1.11280 and 10-day SMA at 1.10878 provide dynamic support, with longer-term signals also aligned to the upside — the 20-day SMA (1.09505), 100-day SMA (1.05734), and 200-day SMA (1.07478) are all upward-sloping and positioned below current price levels.Support levels are found at 1.1128, 1.1103, and 1.10878, marking key zones to watch in case of extended pullbacks. On the topside, initial resistance sits at 1.14159, which could cap further gains if momentum weakens.
Daily chart
Daily chart
18:33 United States 52-Week Bill Auction: 3.82% vs previous 3.945%
United States 52-Week Bill Auction: 3.82% vs previous 3.945%
18:32 EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Pair dips near range low despite bullish backdrop
EUR/GBP edged lower on Tuesday after the European session, retreating toward the bottom of its intraday range while holding just above key technical levels. The pair was last seen near the 0.85 area, down modestly on the day, yet broader signals still point to underlying bullish strength.
EUR/GBP trades near the 0.85 zone after sliding from earlier session levelsDespite the retreat, indicators and averages continue to favor a bullish setupSupport emerges around 0.8544 and 0.8507, with resistance seen near 0.8642EUR/GBP edged lower on Tuesday after the European session, retreating toward the bottom of its intraday range while holding just above key technical levels. The pair was last seen near the 0.85 area, down modestly on the day, yet broader signals still point to underlying bullish strength.Momentum indicators remain mixed. The Relative Strength Index is neutral at 58.46, showing no immediate threat of overbought or oversold conditions, while the MACD prints a bullish crossover, suggesting upward momentum could resume. Both the Stochastic %K at 69.95 and the Ultimate Oscillator at 49.06 are also neutral, offering limited directional bias in the short term.Key moving averages continue to support the bullish case. The 10-day EMA at 0.85468 and SMA at 0.85441 provide dynamic support, while longer-term averages — the 20-day SMA at 0.84520, 100-day at 0.83568, and 200-day at 0.83826 — all trend higher and sit comfortably below current price levels.Daily chart
18:02 Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 7.5% below forecasts (7.7%) in February
Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 7.5% below forecasts (7.7%) in February
17:44 EU expects bulk of US tariffs to remain in place – Bloomberg
The European Union expects a bulk of the US import tariffs to remain in place after little progress was made in the latest talks, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
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The European Union expects a bulk of the US import tariffs to remain in place after little progress was made in the latest talks, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday."The EU’s trade chief, Maros Sefcovic, left the meeting with little clarity on the US stance, struggling to determine the American side’s aims, according to people familiar with the discussions," Bloomberg wrote regarding Sefcovic's two-hour meeting with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington on Monday.Market reactionEUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure following this headline. At the time of press, the pair was down 0.3% on the day at 1.1315. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
17:39 US Dollar rebounds while investors still concerned over erratic tariff headlines
The US Dollar (USD) gains temporary ground after stabilizing near its recent lows, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounding from its three-year low of 99.00 to 100.00 during North American trading hours on Tuesday.
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However, the recovery move could be short-lived as financial market participants remain concerned over United States (US) President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff announcements, which have led them to doubt the structural attractiveness of the US Dollar.Analysts at Commerzbank said, “With every U-turn in Trump’s 'dealmaking', the US president destroys further planning security and even more trust, which is why we ultimately do not expect any significant recovery in the US dollar as long as this uncertainty persists for all participants in world and economic affairs.”Investors started doubting the credibility of the US Dollar after the declaration of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs by Trump on all of its trading partners, except China, and his plans of reassessing automobile duty. On Monday, Trump said that he is exploring temporary exemptions for tariffs on imported vehicles and related parts as domestic automakers need more time to set up manufacturing facilities at home.Additionally, firming Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets due to fears of a US economic recession due to Trump’s economic policies have also weighed on the US Dollar. On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller supported the need for interest rate cuts to battle against potential economic recession despite inflationary pressures remaining escalated. "I expect the risk of recession would outweigh the risk of escalating inflation, especially if the effects of tariffs in raising inflation are expected to be short-lived," Waller said. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
17:05 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds onto gains above $3,200 on Trump’s tariff uncertainty
Gold price (XAU/USD) clings to gains near all-time highs (ATH) around $3,245 during North American trading hours on Tuesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price grips gains above $3,200 on heightened global economic tensions.China would look for other markets as US importers would avoid buying products from them due to higher tariffs.Fed Waller backs interest rate cuts due to escalating recession risks.Gold price (XAU/USD) clings to gains near all-time highs (ATH) around $3,245 during North American trading hours on Tuesday. The yellow metal demonstrates strength as deepening uncertainty over the global economic outlook due to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff policies continues to strengthen the appeal of safe-haven assets.Though the trade war has been confined majorly between the US and China after Trump’s declaration of a 90-day pause in the execution of reciprocal tariffs for all of his trading partners, except the Asian giant, investors still worry that the situation is painful for the global economy.A significant increase in reciprocal tariffs on China by Trump to 125% is expected to make Chinese products less competitive for US manufacturers. This would lead Beijing to diverge to other nations for selling their products. Given that China-manufactured products are highly disruptive due to low-cost competitive advantage, businesses from other economies will face significant competition.Technically, heightening global economic tensions improves the safe-haven demand of precious metals, such as Gold.Meanwhile, firm market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the June meeting have also provided some strength in the Gold price. The scenario of the Fed lowering interest rates bodes well for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that the “new tariff policy” is one of the “biggest shocks” to affect the US economy in decades. Waller gave more weightage to brewing fears of an economic recession over accelerating inflation expectations and backed monetary policy easing.Gold technical analysisGold price trades inside Monday’s trading range around $3,230 but is close to the ATH around $3,245. The outlook of the Gold price is upbeat as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher, trading around $3,090.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) trades above 60.00, suggesting a strong bullish momentum.Looking down, the 20-day EMA will act as a key support zone for the pair. On the upside, the round-level resistance of $3,300 will act as a key resistance zone.Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
15:58 CAD little changed on the day – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is all but unchanged in quiet trade on Tuesday, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is all but unchanged in quiet trade on Tuesday, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD/CAD losses are consolidating"It may be too soon for the Bank of Canada to have a clear line of sight on risks around the outlook to cut rates Wednesday. Swaps are pricing in around 8-9bps of easing risk at the moment. Our fair value estimate for spot has eased a little to 1.3921 this morning. USD/CAD losses are consolidating. ""The broader tone in USD/CAD price action remains soft but spot has found some support in the mid1.38 zone in the past 24 hours which may mark a pause in the USD’s recent losses. Intraday patterns do reflect better selling interest in the low 1.39s through, underscoring the fact that scope for USD gains is likely limited at the moment, given the bearish alignment of trend strength oscillators."
15:55 United States Redbook Index (YoY): 6.6% (April 11) vs previous 7.2%
United States Redbook Index (YoY): 6.6% (April 11) vs previous 7.2%
15:55 USD consolidation extends as risk appetite improves – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) continues to consolidate in calmer ranges.
The US Dollar (USD) continues to consolidate in calmer ranges. US President Donald Trump suggested on Monday that further concessions might be possible for auto parts facing 25% tariffs, saying he was 'looking at something to help car companies', Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD steady to slightly lower but retains a weak undertone"No further details were offered but the comments follow the quick rollback of reciprocal tariffs last week and the late Friday 'pause' on electronics tariffs. Market volatility and the practical considerations around demands to reshore manufacturing quickly may be having a constraining effect on the broader roll out of tariffs. Still, the president did promise tariffs on pharma were coming in the near future as the US launches investigations into drugs and semiconductor imports and China today ordered a halt to Boeing plane deliveries." "Trade tensions remain elevated and uncertainty over the economic outlook persists but global stocks are firmer for now on hopes of more tariff concessions. Bonds are mostly lower. The USD is mixed on the day so far. The NZD, GBP and AUD and are leading (moderate) gains among G10 FX while the EUR and CHF are marginally lower. Sentiment and positioning have turned against the USD there appears to be ample room for the trend to develop still."" The charts suggest the DXY is consolidating recent losses via a minor triangle on the intraday chart, possibly ahead of further losses. Trend momentum signals are aligned bearishly for the DXY across a range of timeframes, implying limited potential for the index to rally in the short run at least, and ongoing downside pressure on the market. Intraday support is 99.40, resistance is 99.90. Loss of support around the 99 area would suggest more technically driven weakness in the medium term for the index."
15:47 JPY consolidates multi-month, haven-driven rally – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is trading in a narrow range and slightly underperforming its G10 peers as recent haven-driven momentum fades.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is trading in a narrow range and slightly underperforming its G10 peers as recent haven-driven momentum fades. Signs of a slowdown in the multi-month JPY rally suggest that market turbulence may no longer provide the same lift for the currency, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. JPY consolidates as momentum fades"JPY is quietly consolidating within a tight range and entering the NA session a marginal underperformer against most of its G10 peers. The multimonth rally in JPY looks to be showing signs of deceleration following the latest period of haven-driven strength resulting from trade tensions and market turbulence."
15:44 USD/CAD climbs to near 1.3900 as Canadian inflation cools down
The USD/CAD pair jumps to near 1.3900 during North American trading hours on Tuesday as Statistics Canada has reported that inflationary pressures cool down in March.
.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}USD/CAD rises to near 1.3900 as the Canadian CPI grew at a moderate pace in March.The BoC is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.75% on Wednesday.The intensifying US-China trade war has kept the US Dollar on the backfoot.The USD/CAD pair jumps to near 1.3900 during North American trading hours on Tuesday as Statistics Canada has reported that inflationary pressures cool down in March.The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at a slower pace of 2.3%, compared to estimates and the prior release of 2.6%. Month-on-month CPI grew moderately by 0.3% against expectations of 0.7% and the former reading of 1.1%. Softer Canadian CPI data is expected to jeopardize market expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will keep interest rates steady at 2.75% in the monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.This would be the first interest rate meeting of the BoC since June, in which the central bank will keep interest rates on hold.Investors will also pay close attention to BoC Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference to get cues about how the tariff policy of United States (US) President Donald Trump will shape the economic and the monetary policy outlook.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) strives to gain ground after a three-day losing spree. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, gauges bids near the three-year low of 99.00.The Greenback faced an intense sell-off in the last few trading days on escalating fears that the trade war between the US and China will be painful for the domestic economy. The tit-for-tat tariff fight between the world’s largest powerhouses is expected to slow down business activities in the US. The US is incapable of securing substitutes for Chinese goods on an immediate basis, which could impact the functioning of the supply mechanism. Such a scenario will boost inflationary pressures as business owners will be forced to raise prices to maintain the demand-supply equilibrium. Related news Breaking: Canada CPI inflation declines to 2.3% in March vs. 2.6% expected US indices still in bear run: Tariff uncertainty – Forex trading CAD interest rates in focus [Video] No concessions from Trump on China – Commerzbank
15:44 GBP pushes to fresh highs – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is performing well on the day with a 0.4% gain vs. the US Dollar (USD) and outperformance against most of the G10 currencies as it pushed to fresh highs at levels last seen in October, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is performing well on the day with a 0.4% gain vs. the US Dollar (USD) and outperformance against most of the G10 currencies as it pushed to fresh highs at levels last seen in October, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Near-term support is expected in the mid-1.31"Sentiment appears to be dominating, offering GBP gains on the back of easing trade tensions and a better market mood overall. Fundamentally, the employment data were generally disappointing with softer than expected wage growth and a larger than expected contraction in payroll gains." "GBP/USD has decisively cleared its prior local high just above 1.3200 and is now pushing toward the late Q3/early Q4 highs around 1.34. Momentum is bullish and the RSI is just below the overbought threshold at 70." "We remain somewhat concerned by the negative divergence in momentum and the lack of confirmation for the fresh highs in spot. Near-term support is expected in the mid-1.31s."
15:41 EUR quiet on mixed ZEW data ahead of ECB Thursday – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating within a relatively tight range around 1.1350, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating within a relatively tight range around 1.1350, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR/USD’s rally is showing signs of near-term exhaustion"The ZEW business sentiment survey data was mixed, as the leading component disappointed while the current situation figures offered a modest, positive surprise." "Thursday’s ECB remains a focus as market tensions continue to moderate, and a 25bpt cut is widely expected. The meeting will not include fresh forecasts, allowing ECB President Lagarde to maintain greater flexibility in terms of setting the outlook for rates." "EUR/USD’s rally is showing some signs of near-term exhaustion with overbought momentum (70+ RSI). The latest range is roughly bound between support it’s the mid-1.12s and resistance in the mid-1.14s."
15:31 United States Export Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0%) in March
United States Export Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0%) in March
15:31 Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.7%) in March: Actual (0.3%)
Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.7%) in March: Actual (0.3%)
15:31 United States Import Price Index (YoY) declined to 0.9% in March from previous 2%
United States Import Price Index (YoY) declined to 0.9% in March from previous 2%
15:31 United States Import Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in March
United States Import Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in March
15:31 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index registered at -8.1 above expectations (-14.5) in April
United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index registered at -8.1 above expectations (-14.5) in April
15:31 Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) fell from previous 0.4% to -0.2% in March
Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) fell from previous 0.4% to -0.2% in March
15:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.3%, below expectations (2.6%) in March
Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.3%, below expectations (2.6%) in March
15:30 United States Export Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 2.1% to 2.4% in March
United States Export Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 2.1% to 2.4% in March
15:30 Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) fell from previous 2.7% to 2.2% in March
Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) fell from previous 2.7% to 2.2% in March
15:30 Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) down to 0.1% in March from previous 0.7%
Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) down to 0.1% in March from previous 0.7%
15:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) below expectations (242.5K) in March: Actual (214.2K)
Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) below expectations (242.5K) in March: Actual (214.2K)
14:14 OPEC lowers its demand forecast only slightly – Commerzbank
OPEC revised its forecast for global oil demand slightly downwards in its monthly report published yesterday due to the expected impact of US tariffs. It now expects an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day for both this year and next.
OPEC revised its forecast for global oil demand slightly downwards in its monthly report published yesterday due to the expected impact of US tariffs. It now expects an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day for both this year and next. OPEC is thus still more optimistic than most market observers, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Expected demand for OPEC+ oil remains virtually unchanged"As the forecast for the increase in supply outside OPEC+ was lowered by a similar amount at the same time, the expected demand for OPEC+ oil remains virtually unchanged. This is expected to remain unchanged at 42.6 million barrels per day for the current year. Compared to OPEC+‘s oil production of around 41 million barrels per day in March, the resulting supply deficit remains large, leaving room for OPEC+’s planned production increase." "OPEC's forecast is therefore at odds with the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which expects a significant oversupply on the oil market this year due to weaker demand and rising OPEC+ production. According to the OPEC monthly report, the OPEC+ countries bound by production quotas exceeded the agreed production volume by a good 200 thousand barrels per day in March, primarily because Kazakhstan produced significantly above target.""Kazakhstan reduced its oil production in the first 13 days of April by 3% compared to the March average of 1.82 million barrels per day, the energy ministry announced yesterday, without naming a specific quantity. However, this would still leave production well above the agreed level of 1.47 million barrels per day. This does not include the cuts to compensate for the previous overproduction to which Kazakhstan had committed itself."
13:57 China imported significantly more crude oil in March – Commerzbank
China's crude oil imports rose to 12.1 million barrels per day in March, according to data from the customs authority, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
China's crude oil imports rose to 12.1 million barrels per day in March, according to data from the customs authority, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Iran and Russia fuel China’s crude buying spree"This was around 1.7 million barrels per day higher than in January/February and almost 5% higher than in the previous year. At the same time, it was the highest import volume in one month for more than a year and a half. A sharp rise in oil imports from Iran is being held responsible for this, even though China does not publish any official data in this regard." "The data provider Vortexa reports a strong increase in seaborne oil imports, which was driven by record-high shipments from Iran to the Shandong province. Independent refineries are suspected of having imported oil from Iran in the run-up to the stricter US sanctions. There is also said to have been an increase in oil imports from Russia. Crude oil imports are unlikely to maintain the high level of March." "The fact that Chinese exports of oil products fell significantly in March and the first quarter also speaks against this. Chinese refineries were granted lower export quotas than in the previous year, which is likely to have made it more difficult for them to export the surplus of oil products. This suggests lower crude oil processing and lower crude oil imports in the coming months."
13:54 Brent forward curve flattened significantly over the first 12 months – Commerzbank
In the wake of the sharp fall in oil prices, the time spreads, i.e. the price differentials along the forward curves, also narrowed significantly last week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
In the wake of the sharp fall in oil prices, the time spreads, i.e. the price differentials along the forward curves, also narrowed significantly last week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Brent time spreads narrow sharply on oil price drop"The gap between the next due Brent contract and the contract maturing in one year was temporarily just over $1. The last time the price difference between these two contract maturities was lower was in December 2023. At the end of March, it was still almost $5.""The lower price premium for oil with short-term delivery suggests expectations of a more relaxed oil market, even though the price difference widened again to more than $2 at the end of last week. It is worth noting that the price gap between the first two Brent forward contracts was back at 75 US cents on Friday and thus at a similar level to the end of March." "A contango structure, i.e. a rising Brent forward curve, only exists from spring 2026 onwards. In view of the emerging oversupply, this would have been expected at an earlier point in time."
13:52 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Revisits monthly high around 0.6390
The AUD/USD pair extends its winnings streak for the fifth trading day on Tuesday and revisits the monthly high of 0.6380.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD advances to near 0.6390 despite the escalating trade war between the US and China.US President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all of his trading partners, except China.Trump’s tariff agenda has kept the US Dollar on the backfoot.The AUD/USD pair extends its winnings streak for the fifth trading day on Tuesday and revisits the monthly high of 0.6380. The Aussie pair performs strongly in the last few trading days even though the intensifying trade war between the United States (US) and China has dampened the outlook of the Australian economy.Historically, the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms when the economic outlook of China deteriorates, given the high dependence of the Australian economy on its exports to the Asian giant.US President Donald Trump has declared a 90-day pause on the execution of reciprocal tariffs for all of his trading partners, except China. The world’s second largest nation retaliated against Trump’s reciprocal tariffs by imposing additional duties on goods imported from the US.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to hold its recent lows as financial market participants expect that Trump’s economic policies are painful for the US economy in the near term. Trump’s tariff policies are expected to boost inflationary pressures and slow down economic growth. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades cautiously slightly above the three-year low of 99.00.AUD/USD extends its upside to near the March 18 high of 0.6390, the highest level seen in over a month. The near-term outlook of the pair is upbeat as it holds the 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which trade around 0.6244 and 0.6270, respectively.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises to near 58.00 after a V-shape recovery from below 40.00. Such a scenario indicates a strong bullish reversal.More upside would appear if the pair breaks above the March 18 high of 0.6390. The scenario will open doors for the pair towards the December 5 high of 0.6456 and the round-level resistance of 0.6500.On the flip side, a downside move below the March 4 low of 0.6187 will expose the pair towards the February low of 0.6087, followed by the psychological support of 0.6000.AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
13:50 GBP/USD rebounds sharply, eyes channel top – Société Générale
GBP/USD has bounced strongly from the 50-day moving average, clearing a key pivot and approaching the top of its multi-month channel.
GBP/USD has bounced strongly from the 50-day moving average, clearing a key pivot and approaching the top of its multi-month channel. While the rally appears extended, technical signals suggest limited downside for now, with key targets seen at 1.3270 and 1.3390/1.3430, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Pound approaches key resistance after 50-DMA hold"GBP/USD has swiftly rebounded after defending the 50-DMA at 1.2705 (now at 1.2800). It has crossed recent pivot high and is approaching the upper limit of a multi-month channel. The move is a bit stretched however signals of a large decline are not yet visible." "March high of 1.3010 is likely to provide support if a short-term pullback develops. Next objectives are located at projection of 1.3270 and the peak of last September at 1.3390/1.3430."
13:44 Gold continues to enjoy a tailwind – Commerzbank
The exemption of some electronics products from the reciprocal US tariffs has provided some relief on the stock market, although expectations were quickly dampened again by the threat that the products would soon be subject to sectoral tariffs, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes.
The exemption of some electronics products from the reciprocal US tariffs has provided some relief on the stock market, although expectations were quickly dampened again by the threat that the products would soon be subject to sectoral tariffs, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Gold hits record high amid tariff fears and USD weakness"This is perhaps one of the reasons why the price of Gold climbed to a new record high of $3,245 per troy ounce at the start of the new week. However, the rise in the Gold price is also partly in line with the continuing weakness of the dollar, which points to a gradual erosion of the US currency's status as a safe asset — Gold is likely to be an alternative for many USD investors. The recent strong inflows into the world's largest Gold ETF could also indicate this.""The short term monetary policy outlook is providing further support. The ECB is generally expected to cut interest rates this week and in view of the uncertainty triggered by US tariff policy, it will certainly keep the door open to further easing. The US Federal Reserve's course of action is less clear, as it sees itself confronted with inflation risks as well as an economic slowdown. The market is still expecting it to cut interest rates as early as June." "However, at least Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has recently been rather cautious in this regard. He saw no need to lower interest rates as a precautionary measure. If other Fed representatives, above all Fed Chair Powell, make similar statements in the coming days, this could take the wind out of the sails of the Gold price rally."
13:38 USD/CNH: Unlikely to break above 7.3350 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could edge higher vs Chinese Yuan (CNH), but any advance is unlikely to break above 7.3350. In the longer run, sharp but short-lived price action has resulted in a mixed outlook; USD is likely to trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700 for now.
US Dollar (USD) could edge higher vs Chinese Yuan (CNH), but any advance is unlikely to break above 7.3350. In the longer run, sharp but short-lived price action has resulted in a mixed outlook; USD is likely to trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700 for now. Sharp but short-lived price action results in a mixed outlook24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we indicated that 'there is a chance for USD to dip below 7.2700.' We pointed out, 'Resistance levels are at 7.3150 and 7.3350.' Our view was incorrect, as USD rebounded from 7.2780 to 7.3249, closing at 7.3096, up by 0.42%. There has been a slight increase in upward momentum. Today, USD could edge higher, but any advance is unlikely to break above 7.3350. On the downside, support levels are at 7.3020 and 7.2950." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our latest narrative was from last Friday (11 Apr, spot at 7.3100), wherein the recent 'sharp but short-lived price action has resulted in a mixed outlook.' For the time being, we expect USD to 'trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700.' There is no change in our view."
13:28 HUF: S&P’s downgrades exerts additional pressure – Commerzbank
Last week after business hours on Friday, Standard & Poor’s issued a downgrade of outlook on Hungary’s sovereign debt from stable to negative. S&P already rates the issuer at 'BBB-/A-3', the lowest within investment grade, which highlights the significance of a negative outlook from here.
Last week after business hours on Friday, Standard & Poor’s issued a downgrade of outlook on Hungary’s sovereign debt from stable to negative. S&P already rates the issuer at 'BBB-/A-3', the lowest within investment grade, which highlights the significance of a negative outlook from here. The reasoning and emphasis of the analysis seemed to be focussed on pre-election government spending and the fiscal deficit (election is in 2026) – S&P cited persistent fiscal slippage and nearly 75% of GDP public debt as the primary reasons for a negative outlook, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. EUR/HUF surges past 410 on downgrade, CPI Fears"In our view, though, given the multiple challenges the EU is likely to face as a result of the US’ altered vision of world trade and international relations, most EU countries might materially exceed their fiscal spending plans in coming years. This will be part of a broader drive, including on defence, which will be ‘planned’ or recommended, not a deviation. Meeting earlier set fiscal targets may be the last thing on the minds of most EU governments. S&P also cited the lack of access to EU funds, but it is possible that other types of EU funds may become available to Hungary as part of newer plans which will be drawn up in due course. That remains to be seen.""But, none of this is central to our focus here. Our focus is that EUR/HUF has once again shot past the 410 mark as a result of broader risk-off moves in world markets plus the downgrade (see chart below on EUR/HUF’s reversal). The exchange rate was trying to find a way back towards the 400 level gradually, with support from cautious language (about rate cuts) by the new central bank governor. In the past week, though, a weak CPI print gave rise to market perceptions that the central bank (MNB) may resume rate cuts soon. In reality, the CPI print was not very good, hence cutting rates on that basis would amount to a disaster.""We have been warning that the HUF’s high-beta status makes things risky at this time – because the US administration’s announcements are triggering ad hoc swings in the market, which naturally impact the high-beta assets above all others, and Hungary’s own inflation dynamics had already been struggling with FX pass-through from previous months – any further FX pass-through, even from unrelated causes, could tip the balance in the wrong direction."
13:23 USD/JPY: Likely to trade in a 142.70/144.55 range – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 142.70/144.55 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD could continue to decline, but given the deeply oversold conditions, it remains to be seen if 139.55 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 142.70/144.55 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD could continue to decline, but given the deeply oversold conditions, it remains to be seen if 139.55 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD can also continue to decline24-HOUR VIEW: "Last Friday, USD plummeted to 142.05 before rebounding sharply. Yesterday (Monday), we indicated that 'the rebound in deeply oversold conditions suggests USD is unlikely to weaken further.' We expected USD to 'trade in a 142.30/144.30 range.' Our view of range-trading was not wrong, even though USD traded in a narrower range than expected (142.23/144.08). The price movements still appear to be part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect USD to trade in a 142.70/144.55 range." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (14 Apr, spot at 143.70) still stands. As highlighted, USD 'could continue to decline, but given the deeply oversold conditions, it remains to be seen if 139.55 is within reach.' Overall, only a breach of 145.00 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 145.50 yesterday) would mean that the USD weakness that started early this month (see annotations in the chart below) has stabilised."
13:15 Norges Bank likely to delay cuts until June – Commerzbank
Although the Norwegian inflation figures for March look a little better again after the significant upward surprise at the beginning of the year, Norges Bank is still likely to wait until June before lowering the key rate, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.
Although the Norwegian inflation figures for March look a little better again after the significant upward surprise at the beginning of the year, Norges Bank is still likely to wait until June before lowering the key rate, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. NOK struggles amid weak oil and risk aversion"After all, both the headline and core rates, at 0.24% and 0.31% respectively, seasonally adjusted in a month-on-month comparison, remain above the level that would be consistent with the inflation target. So there is still some way to go before Norges Bank will be willing to start the rate cut cycle. Which is why I also think that it will wait for the April and May figures before even considering cutting in June.""However, this is unlikely to help the NOK in the short term. After all, weak oil prices and risk aversion in the market remain major negative factors for it, which is why we have also adjusted our EUR/NOK forecasts upwards at the short end. However, the latest move above 12 in EUR/NOK looks to me as an overshooting, so there is a little potential for the krone to recover."
12:58 GBP/JPY trades higher to near 189.00 on upbeat UK employment data
The GBP/JPY pair rises to near 189.00 in Tuesday’s European session. The pair moves higher as the Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthens after the release of the upbeat United Kingdom (UK) employment data for three months ending February.
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Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency.
When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
12:57 China’s Copper imports drop – ING
China’s preliminary trade data for metals, released yesterday, showed imports of unwrought Copper fell 1.4% YoY to 467kt in March, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
China’s preliminary trade data for metals, released yesterday, showed imports of unwrought Copper fell 1.4% YoY to 467kt in March, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.COMEX Gold inventories are now starting to decline"Cumulative imports fell 5.2% YoY to 1.3mt in the first three months of the year. The widening in the COMEX/LME arb likely drew more Copper shipments into the US rather than China. Meanwhile, Copper concentrate imports increased 2.7% YoY (+9.8% MoM) to 2.39mt in March, while year-to-date imports rose 1.8% YoY to total 7.1mt.""On the export side, China’s unwrought Aluminium and Aluminium product shipments fell 1% YoY to 504.7kt last month. Cumulative shipments decreased 7.6% YoY to 1.4mt in the first three months of the year. Steel product exports increased 5.7% YoY to 10.46mt in March. This left cumulative Steel product exports at 27.4mt (+6.3% YoY) over the first three months of the year, amid increased global trade tensions.""There are reports that the People’s Bank of China issued new Gold import quotas to commercial banks amid strong haven demand from investors as trade tensions increased. The central bank usually restricts physical bullion imports. Meanwhile, COMEX Gold inventories, which surged earlier this year on tariff concerns, are now starting to decline. This follows the Trump administration excluding Gold from tariffs."
12:53 AUD/USD: Chance to potentially test the key resistance at 0.6390 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range vs US Dollar (USD), likely between 0.6270 and 0.6350. In the longer run, AUD is likely to trade with an upward bias, potentially testing the key resistance at 0.6390, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range vs US Dollar (USD), likely between 0.6270 and 0.6350. In the longer run, AUD is likely to trade with an upward bias, potentially testing the key resistance at 0.6390, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD is likely to trade with an upward bias24-HOUR VIEW: "While we noted yesterday that 'further AUD is strength is not ruled out', we pointed out that 'any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.6230/0.6330.' AUD then traded between 0.6276 and 0.6342, closing at 0.6327 (+0.53%). Today, we continue to expect AUD to trade in a range, likely between 0.6270 and 0.6350." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our view to positive yesterday (14 Apr, spot at 0.6290), indicating that AUD 'is likely to trade with an upward bias, potentially testing the key resistance at 0.6390.' We also indicated that 'To sustain the momentum, AUD must remain above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.6140.' There is no change in our view, but the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 0.6180 from 0.6140."
12:50 Germany 5-y Note Auction declined to 2.06% from previous 2.44%
Germany 5-y Note Auction declined to 2.06% from previous 2.44%
12:36 No concessions from Trump on China – Commerzbank
Where Trump is not willing to make concessions or give in, however, is on China. Here, the motto 'always more than you' seems to apply. The tariff spiral is in full swing, there are only a few exceptions, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.
Where Trump is not willing to make concessions or give in, however, is on China. Here, the motto 'always more than you' seems to apply. The tariff spiral is in full swing, there are only a few exceptions, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. US-China tariff war hurts everyone"Now one could say that when two quarrel, a third rejoices. But it's not that simple at the geopolitical and economic level. After all, trade and the flow of goods cannot be quickly diverted or changed (see also the comments by my colleague Volkmar on Friday). It is true that new alliances and partnerships can be formed at the international level (there is a reason why China's President Xi is touring Southeast Asia), but these also take time." "In this respect, in my view, the bottom line here is also the realization that the (tariff) war between the USA and China is unlikely to benefit anyone, but will primarily harm everyone – after all, with such high tariffs, a standstill in trade or high losses for the companies involved can be expected (with corresponding effects on inflation, employment, etc.). Another reason for me as a currency analyst to remain skeptical about the US dollar and the renminbi."
12:34 United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction down to 4.638% from previous 4.679%
United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction down to 4.638% from previous 4.679%
12:31 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $32.32 per troy ounce, broadly unchanged 0.08% from the $32.35 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have increased by 11.87% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 32.32 1 Gram 1.04
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 99.87 on Tuesday, up from 99.25 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 99.87 on Tuesday, up from 99.25 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:27 CAD: CPI today ahead of tomorrow's BoC – ING
The CPI print in Canada this afternoon can swing expectations for tomorrow’s Bank of Canada meeting, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
The CPI print in Canada this afternoon can swing expectations for tomorrow’s Bank of Canada meeting, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. USD/CAD can continue to trade below 1.40 for now"Consensus is for a tick higher in March inflation, both on the headline (from 2.6% to 2.7%) and core measures (median and trim rising to 3.0%). If inflation doesn’t surprise on the downside, markets may consolidate the marginally prevalent view that the BoC will stay on hold tomorrow, which is also our call.""Still, the BoC and Canadian inflation should remain a secondary driver to global equities and the USD’s confidence crisis for USD/CAD. We estimate USD/CAD is trading 2% below its short-term fair value. That is entirely in line with the idiosyncratic risk premium on the USD due to recent turmoil in US markets.""As discussed above, we don’t think there will be a rapid unwinding of that risk premium, so USD/CAD can continue to trade below 1.40 for now. A hold by the BoC would help sustain CAD gains, even if it won’t be a game changer."
12:23 Trump’s trade tactics erode global trust – Commerzbank
Obviously, there is a learning curve for the US president when he continues to backpedal on tariffs. But the damage is done, trust is destroyed. Trump may call all these actions “dealmaking”, but in my view he underestimates two things, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.
Obviously, there is a learning curve for the US president when he continues to backpedal on tariffs. But the damage is done, trust is destroyed. Trump may call all these actions “dealmaking”, but in my view he underestimates two things, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. Uncertainty keeps USD under pressure"Firstly, that foreign trade is not a real estate or financial investment. Although international trade, as the name suggests, is also a 'deal', it is not a deal that involves the purchase or sale of an item between just two parties or contractual partners. Yes, two countries are apparently trading with each other in the sense of the macroeconomic view. But in fact, countless companies and service providers are involved here, with a variety of intermediate and end products. They are the ones who are trading with each other, even if their 'dealing' is ultimately reflected in the countries' trade and current account balances - the economic indicators that the US administration looks at.""The second aspect is that these actors have spent decades building supply and trade chains and often have long-term contracts or plans. This cannot be changed, redirected or stopped from one moment to the next. A production facility cannot simply be sold, planned or built like a piece of real estate or a financial investment when the framework conditions change drastically."With every U-turn in his 'dealmaking', the US president destroys further planning security and even more trust. Which is why I ultimately do not expect any significant recovery in the US dollar as long as this uncertainty persists for all participants in world and economic affairs.
12:17 EUR/USD turns sideways while Trump’s erratic tariff announcements keep USD on backfoot
EUR/USD demonstrates a sideways trend near 1.1350 during European trading hours on Tuesday after a sharp run-up in the last few trading days. The major currency pair consolidates as the US Dollar (USD) gains a temporary cushion after remaining under pressure for over a week.
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The major currency pair consolidates as the US Dollar (USD) gains a temporary cushion after remaining under pressure for over a week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, finds ground near a fresh three-year low near 99.00, posted on Friday.However, investors brace for more weakness in the US Dollar as the currency is losing its safe-haven status due to ever-shifting tariff headlines by United States (US) President Donald Trump since last week.After declaring a 90-day pause in the execution of reciprocal tariffs on all of its trading partners, except China, US President Trump is planning to announce a temporary suspension of automobile levies. This would buy time for domestic automakers to set up manufacturing facilities at home. Additionally, heightened fears of an economic slowdown due to Trump’s economic policies have also weighed on the US Dollar and have strengthened US Treasury yields. Historically, yields on interest-bearing assets increase sharply as financial market participants add the risk premium in times of economic uncertainty. 10-year US Treasury yields have increased over 13% in the last six trading sessions.Rising bond yields and escalated fears of an economic slowdown are expected to jeopardize the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that the “new tariff policy” is one of the “biggest shocks” to affect the US economy in decades. Waller gave more weightage to brewing fears of an economic recession over accelerating inflation expectations and backed monetary policy easing. He anticipated that the “effects of tariffs in raising inflation” will be “short lived”.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD consolidates as investors await ECB monetary policyThe sideways move in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by a cautious trend in the Euro (EUR) ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Thursday. The ECB is almost certain to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25%. This would be the sixth straight interest rate cut by the ECB in a row.Investors will pay close attention to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference to get cues about the likely monetary policy outlook for the remaining year and how new trade policies by US President Trump will shape the Eurozone economy.A slew of ECB officials has commented that Trump’s tariffs-led-inflation won’t be persistent and will lead to significant economic risks. An increase in Trump-driven inflation would be offset by China dumping their products into the Euro area. The escalating trade war between the US and China would force the latter to look for other economies to sell their goods. The tariff war between the US and China escalated after the Asian giant retaliated against Trump’s reciprocal tariffs by increasing duties on imports from America.On the global front, trade relations between the US and the Eurozone are expected to become healthy. US National Economic Council (NEC) Kevin Hassett said in an interview with Fox Business Network on Monday that they are making "enormous progress" on tariff talks with the European Union (EU).Technical Analysis: EUR/USD trades sideways around 1.1350EUR/USD wobbles around 1.1350 in Tuesday’s European session. The overall outlook of the major currency pair is strongly bullish as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) slope higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps above 70.00, indicating a strong bullish momentum.Looking up, the psychological resistance of 1.1500 will be a major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the April 11 low of 1.1192 will be the key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
12:07 IEA cuts the 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 730k b/d from 1.03 m b/d
In its monthly oil market report published on Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut the 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 730k barrels per day (b/d) from 1.03 million b/d.
In its monthly oil market report published on Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut the 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 730k barrels per day (b/d) from 1.03 million b/d.Additional takeaways2026 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 690k b/d.Global oil supply rose in March by 910k b/d YoY to 103.61Non-OPEC+ accounted for 890k b/d of March supply increase.Global 2026 oil supply to add 950k b/d, exceeding demand.Non-OPEC+ to add 1.3m b/d in 2025 to 54.4m, led by USNon-OPEC+ supply seen robust in 2026 adding 920k b/d.OPEC March crude output fell 150k b/d to 41.6m b/d.Market reactionFollowing the downbeat report, WTI remains 0.16% lower on the day near $61.
12:06 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Support appears at 1.3850 with potential corrective rebounds
The USD/CAD pair extends its decline for the fifth consecutive session, hovering around 1.3860 during European trading on Tuesday. Daily chart technical analysis highlights a dominant bearish trend, with the pair trending lower within a descending channel formation.
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12:05 Eurozone Industrial Production rises 1.1% MoM in February vs. 0.2% expected
Eurozone’s industrial sector activity rose more than expected in February, the latest data published by Eurostat showed on Tuesday.
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Eurozone’s industrial sector activity rose more than expected in February, the latest data published by Eurostat showed on Tuesday.Industrial output in the old continent rose 1.1% month-over-month (MoM) in February versus the estimated growth of 0.2% and 0.8% reported in January.Annually, Eurozone Industrial Production jumped 1.2% in the same period, compared to January’s -0.5%. Data surprised markets to the upside, with -0.8% reading predicted.EUR/USD reaction to the Eurozone Industrial Production dataEurozone industrial figures lend some support to the Euro, as EUR/USD erases losses to trade flat on the day at 1.1353, as of writing. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% -0.35% -0.19% -0.14% -0.47% -0.55% -0.14% EUR 0.03% -0.31% -0.15% -0.10% -0.37% -0.51% -0.09% GBP 0.35% 0.31% 0.15% 0.21% -0.05% -0.20% 0.22% JPY 0.19% 0.15% -0.15% 0.04% -0.26% -0.50% 0.03% CAD 0.14% 0.10% -0.21% -0.04% -0.29% -0.41% 0.00% AUD 0.47% 0.37% 0.05% 0.26% 0.29% -0.14% 0.27% NZD 0.55% 0.51% 0.20% 0.50% 0.41% 0.14% 0.42% CHF 0.14% 0.09% -0.22% -0.03% -0.01% -0.27% -0.42% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
12:02 German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index slides to -14 in April vs. +9.3 expected
The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index declined sharply to -14 in April from 51.6 in March, missing the market estimate of 9.3 by a wide margin.
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index tumbled to -14 in April.EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1350 after German and Eurozone ZEW surveys.The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index declined sharply to -14 in April from 51.6 in March, missing the market estimate of 9.3 by a wide margin.The Current Situation Index improved to -81.2 in the same period, as against the March reading of -87.6. Data beat the expected -86 figure.The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index dropped to -18.5 in April from 39.8 in March. The market consensus was 14.2.Key pointsErratic changes in the us trade policy are weighing heavily on expectations in Germany.Not only the consequences the announced reciprocal tariffs may have on global trade, but also the dynamics of their changes, that have massively increased global uncertainty.Economic expectations for Germany and the eurozone reflect this development.Market reactionThe EUR/USD pair remains in the red after the mixed German and Eurozone ZEW surveys. The pair is losing 0.07% on the day to trade near 1.0950, as of writing.
12:01 Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment came in at -18.5, below expectations (14.2) in April
Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment came in at -18.5, below expectations (14.2) in April
12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) above forecasts (-0.8%) in February: Actual (1.2%)
Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) above forecasts (-0.8%) in February: Actual (1.2%)
12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment below forecasts (9.3) in April: Actual (-14)
Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment below forecasts (9.3) in April: Actual (-14)
12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation above expectations (-86) in April: Actual (-81.2)
Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation above expectations (-86) in April: Actual (-81.2)
12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) above expectations (0.2%) in February: Actual (1.1%)
Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) above expectations (0.2%) in February: Actual (1.1%)
11:59 GBP/USD turns positive towards 1.3290 – UOB Group
Outlook for Pound Sterling (GBP) has shifted to positive vs US Dollar (USD); the technical level to watch is 1.3290, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Outlook for Pound Sterling (GBP) has shifted to positive vs US Dollar (USD); the technical level to watch is 1.3290, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. The technical level to watch is 1.329024-HOUR VIEW: "Our view of range-trading yesterday was incorrect, as GBP soared to 1.3201 before closing at a 6-1/2-month high of 1.3191, up by 0.48%. The rally over the past few days appears to be overextended, but there is a chance for GBP to test the major resistance at 1.3210 before the risk of a pullback increases. The next major resistance at 1.3290 is not expected to come under threat. On the downside, should GBP break below 1.3100 (minor support is at 1.3130), it would indicate that it is not rising further." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent update was from last Friday (11 Apr, spot at 1.2990), wherein 'the outlook for GBP has shifted to positive, and the two technical levels to watch are 1.3210 and 1.3290.' Yesterday, GBP rose and reached 1.3201. We continue to hold the same view as long as 1.2950 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.2880) is not breached."
11:54 DXY: Tentative stabilisation? – OCBC
US Dollar ) sell-off seen over the past few sessions showed tentative signs of stabilisation. DXY was last at 99.66 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
US Dollar ) sell-off seen over the past few sessions showed tentative signs of stabilisation. DXY was last at 99.66 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Daily momentum is mild bearish"US assets regained some lost ground, with UST and equities finding some demand overnight. Gains in safe haven proxy FX, including CHF, JPY and EUR slowed. FX vols have also eased, albeit still near elevated levels." "Overnight, Trump was said to consider possible exceptions to his tariffs on imported vehicles and parts to give auto companies more time to set up manufacturing in the US. The temporary respite should see retracement trades from recent outsized moves in the FX markets." "Daily momentum is mild bearish but RSI shows signs of turning higher from oversold conditions. Resistance at 100.5, 101.20 levels. Support at 99.5, 99.1 levels. Week ahead brings empire manufacturing tonight, retail sales and IP tomorrow, followed by housing data on Thursday."
11:52 OPEC lowers demand estimates – ING
Oil prices rose marginally higher yesterday despite OPEC trimming demand estimates. ICE Brent settled just below US$65/bbl. The market is digesting fast-moving policy developments on the tariff front, while balancing them with nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
Oil prices rose marginally higher yesterday despite OPEC trimming demand estimates. ICE Brent settled just below US$65/bbl. The market is digesting fast-moving policy developments on the tariff front, while balancing them with nuclear talks between the US and Iran. Clearly, the market is more focused on tariffs and what they mean for oil demand, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.OPEC continues to maintain more bullish demand estimates"Chinese trade data released yesterday was fairly strong when it comes to oil. Crude oil imports averaged almost 12.2m b/d in March, up 4.8% year on year and nearly 9% higher month on month. Yet cumulative crude imports are still down 1.5% YoY so far this year. Meanwhile, refined product exports rose almost 40% MoM in March to 5.24mt. Year-to-date, though, exports are still down 15.9% YoY. Refined exports were weaker due to lower export margins.""OPEC released its monthly oil market report yesterday, taking the opportunity to reduce demand growth estimates for this year and next. Given recent tariff developments, OPEC reduced its 2025 oil demand growth estimate by 150k b/d to 1.3m b/d YoY. Demand for 2026 saw a similar reduction; it’s now expected to grow by 1.28m b/d. As we mentioned last week, the broader weakness in prices suggest the market is pricing in a much larger demand hit due to tariffs." "In addition, OPEC continues to maintain more bullish demand estimates than other agencies. Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted that oil demand will grow by just over 1m b/d this year. Later today, we will find out if the IEA lowered demand estimates amid an escalation in tariffs when the agency releases its monthly oil report."
11:35 EUR/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 1.1280 and 1.1400 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range between 1.1280 and 1.1400 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, further EUR strength is not ruled out, but it may first range-trade for a couple of days, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range between 1.1280 and 1.1400 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, further EUR strength is not ruled out, but it may first range-trade for a couple of days, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Further EUR strength is not ruled out24-HOUR VIEW: "Following the sharp rally in EUR last Friday, we indicated yesterday (Monday) that 'the rally may take a pause.' We were of the view that EUR 'is likely to trade between 1.1240 and 1.1415.' EUR then traded in a narrower range than expected (1.1295/1.1424), closing slightly lower by 0.10% at 1.1349. We continue to expect EUR to trade in a range today, likely between 1.1280 and 1.1400." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "The next resistance is at 1.1500. The following are the excerpts from our update yesterday (14 Apr, spot at 1.1340: 'While further EUR strength is not ruled out, deeply overbought short-term conditions could lead to a couple of days of range-trading first. As long as 1.1180 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached, the EUR strength that started early this month could extend to 1.1500.' Our update remains valid, but the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 1.1210 from 1.1180."
11:32 USD/CHF holds near 0.8150 as Swiss Franc receives support from persistent safe-haven flows
USD/CHF moves sideways after registering losses in the previous three successive sessions, hovering around 0.8150 during the European trading hours on Tuesday. The pair remains within striking distance of the 0.8099 mark—its lowest level since September 2011—briefly touched on April 11.
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The pair remains within striking distance of the 0.8099 mark—its lowest level since September 2011—briefly touched on April 11.The Swiss Franc (CHF) remains supported by safe-haven flows as investor uncertainty lingers amid unpredictable US trade and economic policies. Some market relief emerged after US President Donald Trump announced temporary exemptions on key tech products—including semiconductors and smartphones—from the latest round of tariffs on Chinese imports.However, the CHF’s safe-haven appeal may be tempered by an improvement in global risk sentiment. On Monday, Trump signaled potential temporary relief from the proposed 25% auto tariffs, aiming to give automakers time to adjust supply chains.Meanwhile, downside pressure on the USD/CHF pair may be limited as the US Dollar attempts to stabilize amid growing concerns over stagflation. In early Tuesday trading, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that the Federal Reserve still has “a long way to go” to bring inflation down to its 2% target, cooling expectations for imminent rate cuts.In a notable policy shift, Deutsche Bank now projects a 25 basis point rate cut in December—its first anticipated cut for 2025—followed by two additional cuts in Q1 2026. The bank sees the terminal rate settling between 3.5% and 3.75%. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
11:31 USD: Still downside risks – ING
US equities and bonds had a good Monday, but considering the width of Trump’s announced exemptions from China’s tariffs, the move is well short of exceptional. Markets retain a substantial risk premium attached to US assets, including the dollar.
US equities and bonds had a good Monday, but considering the width of Trump’s announced exemptions from China’s tariffs, the move is well short of exceptional. Markets retain a substantial risk premium attached to US assets, including the dollar. That ranges between 2% and 5% across different G10 currencies, in our estimates, although the recent instability in traditional correlations and unnaturally high FX volatility means those deviations shouldn’t be taken at face value, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Markets remain heavily bearish on the USD"Anyway, the option market is sending clear signals that markets remain heavily bearish on the dollar, and price action on Monday suggests investors are still minded to sell USD in the rallies. The rationale here is that even if we have seen the worst in US market dysfunctionality, a deterioration of US data is likely on the way, and the damage dealt by “chaotic” trade policy decisions won’t be unwound quickly.""Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rejected the possibility that foreign nations (presumably China) are dumping US Treasuries. He attributed bond losses to deleveraging and while affirming the Treasury has many tools to support the market, we are far from those levels.""The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside for the dollar, regardless of broad stabilisation in the Treasury market, in our view. The data calendar includes the Empire Manufacturing index today, which is expected to rebound while staying in negative territory. Yesterday, we saw a 0.4% increase in NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations, although the survey dates back to three weeks. The more up-to-date University of Michigan survey showed a spike in inflation expectations to 6.7%, although the sample is rather small and could be politically biased."
11:27 EUR/USD: To consolidate on the day – OCBC
Euro (EUR) bulls paused overnight, ahead of ZEW survey, industrial production data today, current account (Wednesday) and ECB meeting (Thursday). Pair was last at 1.1357 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Euro (EUR) bulls paused overnight, ahead of ZEW survey, industrial production data today, current account (Wednesday) and ECB meeting (Thursday). Pair was last at 1.1357 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Dovish comments may partially negate EUR’s ascend"On ECB, our house islooking for a 25bp cut. Trade tensions pose growth concerns while the drop in energy prices and much stronger EUR are likely to have added to the disinflationary pressure. More importantly, ECB’s rhetoric is key – whether policymakers will be guiding for further cuts or mention that EUR’s recent rally as excessive, etc." "Dovish comments may partially negate EUR’s ascend. Daily momentum is bullish while RSI rose into near overbought conditions. Consolidation likely. Resistance at 1.1460/70 levels before 1.15. Support at 1.1280, 1.1160 levels."
11:19 EUR: ZEW may overestimate sentiment drop – ING
The German ZEW surveys published today are the first activity indicators to be released in the eurozone since 'liberation day'. Remember that respondents are financial market experts, not business managers like the Ifo.
The German ZEW surveys published today are the first activity indicators to be released in the eurozone since 'liberation day'. Remember that respondents are financial market experts, not business managers like the Ifo. Consensus is for a big drop in the expectation gauge from March’s 52 to 10 on the back of tariffs. However, some responses may have been collected before the tariff pause announced last Wednesday by Trump. Markets may not dwell too much on a soft figure, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notesMarkets are pricing in 75bp of total ECB easing this year"EUR/USD is overbought and overvalued, but we have observed strong buying interest around 1.130, and we still think the near-term bias is towards 1.15 rather than 1.12 from the current 1.135. After all, the USD slump remains largely a function of the loss of the USD's appeal as a reserve/safe-haven asset, and the euro’s high liquidity character should continue to absorb a lot of the rotation. The major risk at this stage is perhaps very dovish signals by the ECB as it cuts tomorrow, although markets are pricing in 75bp of total easing this year, so the bar is set relatively high.""Elsewhere in Europe, the UK released jobs figures for March this morning. Payrolls fell more than expected, extending 2024's modest private-sector downtrend, though these numbers often see upward revisions. Despite survey warnings, there's little hard evidence yet of the employer tax hike triggering layoffs. Wage growth came in softer than consensus, but underlying private-sector pay dynamics remain firm. With unemployment data still unreliable, payrolls are the key metric to watch. Bottom line: nothing here to shift the BoE's stance. We stick to our call for a May rate cut, followed by quarterly cuts into 2026.""With ECB and BoE upcoming cuts (tomorrow and in May) fully in the price, EUR/GBP remains almost solely a function of risk sentiment. EUR’s safe-haven appeal means further selloffs will take EUR/GBP back higher. Equity futures point to more tentative stabilisation, meaning the pair can continue hedging lower towards 0.850, also helped by the ECB’s moving first on easing."
11:04 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates down at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 97.33, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 97.67 Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades at 113.32 against the INR in the early European trading hours, also losing ground after the GBP/INR pair settled at 113.48 at the previous close.
Category: Forex - Module: Indian Economy.
11:02 Forex Today: Market volatility wanes ahead of mid-tier data releases
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 15:
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Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 15:The action in financial markets turns subdued early Tuesday as investors finally take a break following the previous week's wild fluctuations. Eurostat will publish February Industrial Production data later in the session. In the second half of the day, inflation data from Canada, Export Price Index and Import Price Index data from the US will be watched closely by investors. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.07% -1.05% -0.46% -0.01% -1.20% -1.60% -0.40% EUR -0.07% -0.63% -0.10% 0.37% -0.54% -1.24% -0.04% GBP 1.05% 0.63% 0.93% 0.99% 0.09% -0.61% 0.60% JPY 0.46% 0.10% -0.93% 0.45% -0.96% -1.35% 0.22% CAD 0.01% -0.37% -0.99% -0.45% -1.15% -1.59% -0.46% AUD 1.20% 0.54% -0.09% 0.96% 1.15% -0.69% 0.51% NZD 1.60% 1.24% 0.61% 1.35% 1.59% 0.69% 1.24% CHF 0.40% 0.04% -0.60% -0.22% 0.46% -0.51% -1.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) Index moves up and down in a tight band below 100.00 after closing the day marginally lower on Monday. US President Donald Trump said late Monday that his administration will look at semiconductors and the whole electronics supply chain in the upcoming national security tariff investigations. Trump also noted that he expects to impose tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals in the "not-too-distant future." US stock index futures trade modestly higher in the European morning on Tuesday after Wall Street's main indexes gained between 0.6% and 0.8% on Monday. Following the previous week's record-setting upsurge, Gold stays in a consolidation phase above $3,200 after closing little changed on Monday.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada is forecast to rise 2.6% on a yearly basis in March, matching February's increase. USD/CAD stays relatively quiet and moves sideways above 1.3850 early Tuesday. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will announce monetary policy decisions.USD/JPY lost about 0.3% on Monday and closed the third consecutive day in negative territory. The pair recovers toward 143.50 in the European morning on Tuesday. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Kato repeated on Tuesday that excessive volatility in financial markets would negatively affect economic and financial stability.AUD/USD preserves its bullish momentum and trades in positive territory above 0.6350 early Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Minutes of its April monetary policy meeting showed that board members agreed the May meeting would be an opportune time to reconsider the policy outlook but noted that the decision was not predetermined.EUR/USD holds steady at around 1.1350 in the early European session on Tuesday. GBP/USD gained nearly 0.8% on Monday and continued to stretch higher early Tuesday. At the time of press, the pair was trading at its highest level since October above 1.3200. The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported early in the day that the ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.4% in the three months to February, matching the market expectation. On Wednesday, the ONS will publish inflation data for March. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
11:00 Turkey Budget Balance: -261.5B (March) vs -310.1B
Turkey Budget Balance: -261.5B (March) vs -310.1B
11:00 Canada CPI set to hold steady in March ahead of BoC rate decision
Statistics Canada will release the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday. Annualised inflation is expected to have held steady at 2.6%, matching the February reading. Market players anticipate a monthly advance of 0.7%, easing from the previous 1.1%.
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Annualised inflation is expected to have held steady at 2.6%, matching the February reading. Market players anticipate a monthly advance of 0.7%, easing from the previous 1.1%. At the same time, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will release its own core CPI estimates, which measure underlying inflation by trimming volatile food and energy prices. According to the latest release, core BoC CPI rose 0.7% MoM and 2.7% YoY in February.The figures are relevant ahead of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The central bank is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate at 2.75%. Officials trimmed it when they met on March 12, the seventh consecutive cut, leaving the main rate at its lowest since 2022. The expected uptick in inflation is more worrisome than what policymakers may let see. The United States (US) President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on pretty much all trading partners has taken its toll. Back and forth in Trump’s announcement still results in Canada being charged with 25% levies on exports to the US. Ahead of the announcement, the USD/CAD pair trades near the multi-month low posted earlier in April at 1.3827. What can we expect from Canada’s inflation rate?BoC officials are well aware of the risks related to the trade war and its potential effects on the local economy. Slowing growth and higher inflationary pressures are the heart of concerns, not just in Canada. Policymakers also anticipated volatile inflation levels amid tariffs but expected it to remain near 2% over the projection horizon. Would they maintain such a view? That’s something that has yet to be seen after the release of this CPI report. Officials also expressed that the White House decision to impose massive tariffs “has emerged as a major source of uncertainty.” And it is not the only one. Investors are unsure of what the BoC will do this week. While there’s a major consensus indicating an on-hold decision, there’s a large portion of analysts anticipating another 25 bps interest rate cut.A rate cut could be in the table if CPI figures are below expectations. A rate hike, on the other hand, seems unlikely at this point, yet higher-than-anticipated figures should lead to speculation that rate cuts are over in the near future. A hawkish shift may lead to a firmer Canadian Dollar (CAD), although investors may hold their fire during the CPI release ahead of the BoC’s confirmation a day after. Additionally, it is worth noting that increased fears of a recession may force the BoC to trim interest rates, even if inflationary pressures increase by more than anticipated in March. As said, uncertainty is high among all market participants. With that in mind, the reaction to the data release could be short-lived and quickly overshadowed by fresh tariff-related headlines. When is the Canada CPI data due and how could it affect USD/CAD?Canada's March inflation report will be published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT, with market participants expecting price pressures to remain broadly unchanged from February. As usual, the divergence between the market expectations and the actual figures will be responsible for CAD’s reaction. Generally speaking, higher-than-anticipated figures would suggest the BoC may need to adopt a more hawkish stance and, hence, push the CAD higher vs other rivals. The opposite scenario is also valid, with softer-than-anticipated readings suggesting the BoC could keep trimming rates. Yet, at the same time, a steep acceleration in price pressures could spur concerns about Canadian economic health and, hence, weigh on the CAD. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “Ahead of the announcement, the Canadian Dollar consolidates gains against the battered US Dollar (USD). The daily chart for the USD/CAD pair shows that technical indicators lost their downward momentum at oversold levels, yet there are no immediate signs of downward exhaustion. Furthermore, the pair is developing below all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating south below a flat 100 SMA, both far above the current level. Overall, lower lows remain on the table.” Bednarik adds: “USD/CAD is on a pause ahead of first-tier events, but the technical risk remains skewed to the downside. The monthly low at 1.3827 is the immediate support ahead of the 1.3470 region. The CPI needs to be shockingly poor to trigger a break below the latter. Resistance, on the other hand, can be found at around the 1.3900 threshold, en route to 1.3950. Further gains towards 1.4000 will likely attract selling interest.” Economic Indicator BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) The BoC Consumer Price Index Core, released by the Bank of Canada (BoC) on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. It is considered a measure of underlying inflation as it excludes eight of the most-volatile components: fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation and tobacco products. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Apr 15, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: - Previous: 2.7% Source: Statistics Canada
Economic Indicator BoC Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 16, 2025 13:45 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2.75% Previous: 2.75% Source: Bank of Canada
Economic Indicator BoC Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 16, 2025 13:45 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2.75% Previous: 2.75% Source: Bank of Canada
10:54 USD/INR remains below 86.00 following WPI inflation data
The Indian Rupee strengthens against the US Dollar, with USD/INR declining over 0.30% to trade around 85.80 during early European hours on Tuesday.
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The pair remained under pressure following the release of India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation data, which eased to 2.05% year-on-year, a four-month low in March due to a slower rise in food prices, from 2.38% in February—below the 2.5% forecast in a Reuters poll.Wholesale food prices rose at a slower pace of 4.66% in March compared to 5.94% the previous month. Markets are also bracing for India’s March CPI release, with expectations pointing to a cooling inflation rate of 3.6%—the lowest in eight months. This has bolstered hopes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could consider rate cuts, especially as GDP growth slows and global trade uncertainty persists.On the Indian equities front, Indian share markets surged on Tuesday, tracking gains on Wall Street after the US announced tariff exemptions on select tech products. Sentiment was further supported by reports that US President Trump is considering similar exemptions for auto manufacturers.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, edged higher after hitting its lowest level since 2022. It hovered near the 100.00 mark, attempting to stabilize amid rising concerns over stagflation risks.In comments made earlier in the session, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that the US central bank still faces a long journey to bring inflation down to its 2% target—casting doubt on market expectations for further rate cuts. Economic Indicator WPI Inflation The WPI Inflation released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry is a measure of price movements similar to the Consumer Price Indices (CPI). Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Rupee, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Tue Apr 15, 2025 06:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2.05% Consensus: 2.5% Previous: 2.38% Source: Office of the Economic Adviser of India
10:30 Palladium price today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.
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Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $953.45 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $954.75. In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $958.98 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, advancing after the XPT/USD pair settled at $952.95 at the previous close.
Palladium FAQs Why do people buy Palladium?
Palladium is a rare and valuable precious metal with strong industrial demand, particularly in the automotive sector. It is widely used in catalytic converters to reduce vehicle emissions, making it essential for global environmental regulations. Investors also see palladium as a store of value, similar to gold and silver, and a potential hedge against inflation. Given its supply constraints and high demand, palladium often attracts traders looking for price volatility and profit opportunities. What is Palladium in trading?
In trading, palladium (XPD/USD) is considered both an industrial and a precious metal. It is traded on major commodity exchanges like the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM). Traders speculate on palladium prices through futures contracts, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and spot markets. Since palladium supply is concentrated in a few countries, particularly Russia and South Africa, geopolitical and mining disruptions can lead to significant price swings, making it an attractive asset for short-term traders and long-term investors alike. Is Palladium more expensive than Gold?
Palladium has historically been less expensive than gold, but in recent years, it has traded at a premium due to rising demand and tight supply. Prices fluctuate based on market conditions, but palladium has, at times, outperformed gold due to its critical role in the automotive industry. However, as markets shift and industrial demand changes, the price relationship between the two metals can vary. What does the price of Palladium depend on?
Palladium prices are influenced by several factors, including industrial demand, supply constraints, and macroeconomic conditions. The automotive industry is the biggest driver of demand, as stricter emissions regulations increase the need for palladium-based catalytic converters. Supply is heavily dependent on mining output from Russia and South Africa, making the metal vulnerable to geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, broader market trends, such as the strength of the US dollar, interest rates, and economic growth, can impact palladium prices, as they do with other precious metals. Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) prices mentioned above are based on the FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
10:13 China’s Foreign Ministry: Will stay committed to joining hands rather than throwing punches
China’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that “facing external uncertainty, (we) will stay committed to joining hands rather than throwing punches.”
China’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that “facing external uncertainty, (we) will stay committed to joining hands rather than throwing punches.”“We will trade with more friends and become a stronger magnet for investment,” the Ministry added.
10:13 Pound Sterling gains on upbeat UK employment data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher against its major peers, except antipodeans, on Tuesday after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for three months ending February.
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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the economy added 206K fresh workers, significantly higher than the 144K recorded in three months ending January.The agency reported that the ILO Unemployment Rate came in line with estimates and the prior release of 4.4%. The scenario of upbeat employment data is favorable for the British currency. However, financial market participants expect that employers could slow down their hiring process in the face of an increase in contributions to social security schemes starting in April. In the Autumn budget, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rache Reeves raised employers’ contribution to National Insurance (NI) from 13.8% to 15%.Meanwhile, Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, grew at a slightly slower pace of 5.9% compared to estimates of 6%. In three months ending January, the wage growth measure rose by 5.8%, downwardly revised from 5.9%. Average Earnings Including Bonuses rose steadily by 5.6% but slower than the expectations of 5.7%. Mixed Average Earnings data is unlikely to change market expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook significantly, which indicates that the central bank would cut interest rates in the May policy meeting. For fresh cues on the interest rate outlook, investors will focus on the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Wednesday. Economists expect the UK core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – to have grown at a steady pace of 3.5%.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling refreshes six-month high against US DollarThe Pound Sterling posts a fresh six-month high near 1.3220 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair trades firmly as the US Dollar remains under pressure, with investors losing confidence in its structural attractiveness due to back-and-forth decisions on trade policies by United States (US) President Donald Trump. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades cautiously slightly above the three-year low of 99.00. The ever-shifting tariff headlines from US President Trump, from the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on all of its trading partners, except China, to signals of temporary suspension on additional levies on imported vehicles, have forced traders to reassess the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar.On Monday, Donald Trump signaled that he is exploring temporary exemptions for tariffs on imported vehicles and related parts as domestic Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) need more time to set up manufacturing facilities at home. “I’m looking at something to help car companies with it,” Trump said and added, “They’re switching to parts that were made in Canada, Mexico and other places, and they need a little bit of time, because they’re going to make them here,” Bloomberg reported.Meanwhile, economic risks prompted by Trump’s policies have stemmed the need for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed monetary policy easing in the scenario of an economic recession despite inflationary pressures remaining escalated. "I expect the risk of recession would outweigh the risk of escalating inflation, especially if the effects of tariffs in raising inflation are expected to be short-lived," Waller said.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling extends winning spreeThe Pound Sterling extends its winning streak for the sixth trading day and jumps above 1.3200 against the US Dollar (USD) at the time of writing on Tuesday. The near-term outlook of the pair is upbeat as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher below the current price. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) demonstrates a V-shape recovery from 40.00 to 65.00, suggesting a strong bullish momentum.Looking down, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement plotted from late September high to mid-January low, near 1.2927, will act as a key support zone for the pair. On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3430 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
09:59 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.28 per barrel, up from Monday’s close at $61.13. Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $64.50 price posted on Monday, and trading at $64.75.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.28 per barrel, up from Monday’s close at $61.13. Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $64.50 price posted on Monday, and trading at $64.75. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
09:45 France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM) up to 0.2% in March from previous 0%
France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM) up to 0.2% in March from previous 0%
09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in March
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in March
09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (0.9%) in March
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (0.9%) in March
09:39 India WPI Inflation down to 2.05% in March from previous 2.38%
India WPI Inflation down to 2.05% in March from previous 2.38%
09:07 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate remains unchanged at 4.7% in March
United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate remains unchanged at 4.7% in March
09:01 UK Unemployment Rate stays at 4.4% in the quarter to February as expected
The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.4% in the three months to February, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday. The market forecast was for a 4.4% reading in the reported period.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The UK Unemployment Rate remains unchanged at 4.4% in three months to February.The Claimant Count Change for Britain came in at 18.7K in March.GBP/USD defends gains near 1.3200 after mixed UK employment data.The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.4% in the three months to February, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday. The market forecast was for a 4.4% reading in the reported period.Additional details of the report showed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits increased by 18.7K in February, compared with a revised gain of 16.5K in January, bettering the expected 30.3K readout.The Employment Change data for February came in at 205K versus 144K in January.Meanwhile, Average Earnings, excluding Bonus, in the UK rose 5.9% three months year-over-year (3M YoY) in February versus a revised 5.8% growth booked previously. Markets expected a 6% print.Another measure of wage inflation, Average Earnings, including Bonus, advanced 5.6% in the same period after accelerating by a revised 5.6% in the quarter through February. The data surpassed the estimate of 5.7%.GBP/USD reaction to the UK employment reportGBP/USD defends gains following the release of the UK employment data. The pair is trading 0.07% higher on the day at 1.3201, as of writing. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.06% -0.08% -0.13% 0.00% -0.46% -0.53% 0.23% EUR -0.06% -0.13% -0.15% -0.04% -0.44% -0.57% 0.19% GBP 0.08% 0.13% -0.02% 0.09% -0.31% -0.45% 0.32% JPY 0.13% 0.15% 0.02% 0.11% -0.32% -0.56% 0.33% CAD -0.01% 0.04% -0.09% -0.11% -0.42% -0.53% 0.23% AUD 0.46% 0.44% 0.31% 0.32% 0.42% -0.13% 0.63% NZD 0.53% 0.57% 0.45% 0.56% 0.53% 0.13% 0.76% CHF -0.23% -0.19% -0.32% -0.33% -0.23% -0.63% -0.76% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
09:01 United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 5.6%, below expectations (5.7%) in February
United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 5.6%, below expectations (5.7%) in February
09:00 United Kingdom Employment Change (3M): 206K (February) vs 144K
United Kingdom Employment Change (3M): 206K (February) vs 144K
09:00 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) meets forecasts (4.4%) in February
United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) meets forecasts (4.4%) in February
09:00 United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 5.9% below forecasts (6%) in February
United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 5.9% below forecasts (6%) in February
09:00 United Kingdom Claimant Count Change came in at 18.7K below forecasts (30.3K) in March
United Kingdom Claimant Count Change came in at 18.7K below forecasts (30.3K) in March
08:47 NZD/USD advances to fresh YTD peak, around 0.5930 area amid broadly weaker USD
The NZD/USD pair builds on the previous day's breakout momentum beyond the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and gains strong follow-through positive traction for the fifth successive day on Tuesday.
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US recession fears, Fed rate cut bets, and a positive risk tone continue to undermine the buck.Technical buying above the 200-day SMA contributes to the momentum despite trade tensions.The NZD/USD pair builds on the previous day's breakout momentum beyond the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and gains strong follow-through positive traction for the fifth successive day on Tuesday. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 0.5925-0.5930 region, or a fresh year-to-date high during the Asian session, and is sponsored by the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD). The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near a three-year low amid worries about the economic fallout from the rapid escalation of the US-China trade war. In fact, China increased its tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in retaliation to US President Donald Trump's decision to raise duties on Chinese goods to an unprecedented 145%. Given that the US still imports several hard-to-replace materials from China, the development fuels recession fears and keeps the USD bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, expectations that a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates more aggressively in 2025 turn out to be another factor weighing on the buck. In fact, the markets are currently pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 90 basis points. Moreover, Trump's temporary tariff reprieve remains supportive of the positive risk tone, which is further seen undermining the safe-haven Greenback and driving flows toward the perceived riskier Kiwi. Apart from this, the strong move-up could also be attributed to some technical buying above the very important 200-day SMA. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which, along with trade developments might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the NZD/USD pair. The focus, however, remains glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday, which will be scrutinized for cues about the future rate-cut path and drive the USD demand. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
08:47 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains below $32.50, support appears at 50-day EMA
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to show strength for the fifth consecutive session, trading around $32.30 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Tuesday.
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Immediate support is seen at the 50-day EMA around $32.21.Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to show strength for the fifth consecutive session, trading around $32.30 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a growing bullish trend, with the grey metal moving upward within an ascending channel pattern.Silver price remains above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating strong short-term momentum. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at the 50 level, reinforcing the active bullish bias.On the upside, the XAG/USD pair may target the upper boundary of the ascending channel around $33.50. A decisive break above this level could strengthen the bullish outlook and pave the way for a retest of the six-month high at $34.59, last seen on March 28.Silver price may find immediate support at the 50-day EMA near $32.21, followed by the nine-day EMA around $31.90. A break below this level could signal weakening short-term price momentum, potentially driving precious metals’ price toward the $31.50 support area. Further downside support lies at the seven-month low of $28.00, marked on April 7.XAG/USD: Daily Chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
08:40 India Gold price today: Gold resumes its upward trajectory
Gold price in India is back on the bids early Tuesday, piggybacking its Comex counterpart.
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Gold price in India is back on the bids early Tuesday, piggybacking its Comex counterpart.
Heightened uncertainty around US President Donald Trump's tariff policies and increased expectations of about 85 basis points (bps) worth of US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing this year keep the bullish bias intact in the traditional safe-haven and yieldless Gold price.
Meanwhile, Gold price stood at 8,883.76 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with Monday's close of INR 8,845.58, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
Gold price rose to INR 103,618.50 per tola versus INR 103,173.10 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,883.76 10 Grams 88,847.37 Tola 103,618.50 Troy Ounce 276,316.10
Gold Market Movers: Gold price continues to attract safe-haven flows amid rising US-China trade tensions Concerns about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies continue to underpin safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, China increased tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in retaliation to Trump's decision to raise duties on Chinese goods to an unprecedented 145%. This keeps the Gold price close to the all-time peak touched on Monday. The US still imports several hard-to-replace materials from China and the developments seem to have weakened confidence in the US economy. Moreover, heightened concerns over a US recession, along with bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would resume its rate-cutting cycle soon and lower borrowing costs at least three times in 2025, fail to assist the US Dollar in registering any meaningful recovery. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Trump administration's tariffs posed a significant shock to the US economy that might force the US central bank to cut rates to avert a recession. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that we still have a ways to go on inflation as tariffs could place upward pressure on prices. The Fed is unable to make bold moves in any direction, Bostic added. The global risk sentiment improved after the White House announced on Friday that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be temporarily exempted from Trump’s punishing reciprocal tariffs. Furthermore, Trump said on Monday that he was looking into possible exemptions for the auto industry from the 25% tariffs as companies need more time to transition to US-made parts. Trump, however, said that exemptions were temporary and added that he would unveil tariffs on imported semiconductors over the next week. Trump also threatened that he would impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals in the not-too-distant future. This continues to fuel uncertainty, which, along with the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the USD, lends some support to the XAU/USD pair. Traders now look to Tuesday's US economic docket, featuring the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index. This, along with trade-related developments, might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the commodity. The focus, however, remains on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday, which might offer cues about the future rate-cut path and drive the non-yielding yellow metal.
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Related news Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks north amid US tariffs uncertainty Asia open: Tariffs take another swing, but traders are starting to filter the noise US-China trade tensions enter a new phase
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:52 GBP/USD climbs further beyond 1.3200, highest since October ahead of UK jobs data
The GBP/USD pair attracts buyers for the sixth straight day and climbs above the 1.3200 mark, hitting a fresh high since October 2024 during the Asian session on Tuesday.
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The US-China trade war weakens confidence in the US economy and weighs on the USD. The divergent Fed-BoE policy expectations also support the pair ahead of UK jobs data.The GBP/USD pair attracts buyers for the sixth straight day and climbs above the 1.3200 mark, hitting a fresh high since October 2024 during the Asian session on Tuesday. Moreover, the bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. Investors remain concerned about the potential economic fallout from the escalating US-China trade war. In fact, China increased its tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in retaliation to US President Donald Trump's decision to raise duties on Chinese goods to an unprecedented 145%. The US still imports several hard-to-replace materials from China and the development weakens confidence in the US economy, which, in turn, keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and lends support to the GBP/USD pair. Moreover, investors have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon and lower borrowing costs by 90 basis points by the year-end. Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone, bolstered by Trump's temporary tariff reprieve, undermines the safe-haven buck. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws support from slightly less chance of a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut next month. This is seen as another factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Even from a technical perspective, the overnight sustained breakout and acceptance above the 1.3100 mark validate the near-term positive outlook. Hence, a subsequent move up towards testing the next relevant hurdle, near the 1.3260 area, looks like a distinct possibility. Traders, however, might opt to wait for the release of the UK monthly jobs report and the Empire State Manufacturing Index from the US. This, along with trade developments, might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the GBP/USD pair. Economic Indicator ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. As a result, a rise leads to a weakening of the UK economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Apr 15, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 4.4% Previous: 4.4% Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor market. The figure is highlighted by the broad media, beyond the financial sector, giving the publication a more significant impact despite its late publication. It is released around six weeks after the month ends. While the Bank of England is tasked with maintaining price stability, there is a substantial inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. A higher than expected figure tends to be GBP-bearish.
07:45 Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 29,114.43 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 28,954.98 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 339,585.00 per tola from PKR 337,725.20 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in PKR 1 Gram 29,114.43 10 Grams 291,144.30 Tola 339,585.00 Troy Ounce 905,560.80
2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues to attract safe-haven flows amid rising US-China trade tensions
Concerns about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies continue to underpin safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, China increased tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in retaliation to Trump's decision to raise duties on Chinese goods to an unprecedented 145%. This keeps the Gold price close to the all-time peak touched on Monday.
The US still imports several hard-to-replace materials from China and the developments seem to have weakened confidence in the US economy. Moreover, heightened concerns over a US recession, along with bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would resume its rate-cutting cycle soon and lower borrowing costs at least three times in 2025, fail to assist the US Dollar in registering any meaningful recovery.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Trump administration's tariffs posed a significant shock to the US economy that might force the US central bank to cut rates to avert a recession. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that we still have a ways to go on inflation as tariffs could place upward pressure on prices. The Fed is unable to make bold moves in any direction, Bostic added.
The global risk sentiment improved after the White House announced on Friday that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be temporarily exempted from Trump’s punishing reciprocal tariffs. Furthermore, Trump said on Monday that he was looking into possible exemptions for the auto industry from the 25% tariffs as companies need more time to transition to US-made parts.
Trump, however, said that exemptions were temporary and added that he would unveil tariffs on imported semiconductors over the next week. Trump also threatened that he would impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals in the not-too-distant future. This continues to fuel uncertainty, which, along with the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the USD, lends some support to the XAU/USD pair.
Traders now look to Tuesday's US economic docket, featuring the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index. This, along with trade-related developments, might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the commodity. The focus, however, remains on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday, which might offer cues about the future rate-cut path and drive the non-yielding yellow metal. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:30 EUR/USD trades near 1.1350, stays silent as US Dollar seeks to recover stability
EUR/USD continues to slide for the second consecutive session, trading near 1.1350 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) attempts to regain stability amid growing concerns over stagflation.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
07:15 Gold price holds above $3,200; bullish bias remains amid trade uncertainty
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's modest pullback from the record high and trades comfortably above the $3,200 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday.
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Trump's temporary tariff reprieve improves global risk sentiment and might cap the commodity.Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's modest pullback from the record high and trades comfortably above the $3,200 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday. The rapid escalation of the trade war between the US and China – the world's two largest economies – keeps market participants on the edge. Adding to this, the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariffs and their impact on the global economy turn out to be key factors that continue to underpin the safe-haven bullion. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to register any meaningful recovery from its lowest level since April 2022 touched last Friday as concerns about the potential economic fallout from tariffs ignited recession fears. Furthermore, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon keep the USD bulls on the defensive, and lend additional support to the non-yielding Gold price. However, Trump's temporary tariff reprieve remains supportive of the upbeat market mood and might cap the XAU/USD pair. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues to attract safe-haven flows amid rising US-China trade tensionsConcerns about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies continue to underpin safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, China increased tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in retaliation to Trump's decision to raise duties on Chinese goods to an unprecedented 145%. This keeps the Gold price close to the all-time peak touched on Monday.The US still imports several hard-to-replace materials from China and the developments seem to have weakened confidence in the US economy. Moreover, heightened concerns over a US recession, along with bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would resume its rate-cutting cycle soon and lower borrowing costs at least three times in 2025, fail to assist the US Dollar in registering any meaningful recovery. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Trump administration's tariffs posed a significant shock to the US economy that might force the US central bank to cut rates to avert a recession. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that we still have a ways to go on inflation as tariffs could place upward pressure on prices. The Fed is unable to make bold moves in any direction, Bostic added. The global risk sentiment improved after the White House announced on Friday that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be temporarily exempted from Trump’s punishing reciprocal tariffs. Furthermore, Trump said on Monday that he was looking into possible exemptions for the auto industry from the 25% tariffs as companies need more time to transition to US-made parts. Trump, however, said that exemptions were temporary and added that he would unveil tariffs on imported semiconductors over the next week. Trump also threatened that he would impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals in the not-too-distant future. This continues to fuel uncertainty, which, along with the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the USD, lends some support to the XAU/USD pair. Traders now look to Tuesday's US economic docket, featuring the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index. This, along with trade-related developments, might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the commodity. The focus, however, remains on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday, which might offer cues about the future rate-cut path and drive the non-yielding yellow metal. Gold price bulls retain control amid constructive technical setup; the $3,168-3,167 pivotal support holds the keyFrom a technical perspective, the overnight bullish resilience below the $3,200 mark and the subsequent move up suggest that the recent well-established uptrend for the Gold price is still far from being over. However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains close to the overbought territory and makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for any further gains. Hence, any further strength is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the $3,245-3,246 area, or the record high touched on Monday. On the flip side, weakness below the $3,200 round figure might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain cushioned near the $3,168-3,167 region. The latter should act as a strong base and a key pivotal point for short-term traders, which if broken decisively could pave the way for a deeper corrective slide. Gold price might then fall to the $3,136 intermediate support en route to the $3,115 region and the $3,100 mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
07:06 FX option expiries for Apr 15 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 15 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
FX option expiries for Apr 15 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1075 600m1.1250 2bUSD/JPY: USD amounts 144.00 2b145.00 2.7bAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6200 1.6b0.6300 495mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4000 401mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8620 692m
06:52 WTI stays above $61.00 due to tariff relief hopes, strong Chinese imports
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price remains stable around $61.10 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. A potential upside in crude prices is supported by recent comments from US President Donald Trump, who suggested the possibility of new tariff exemptions.
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A potential upside in crude prices is supported by recent comments from US President Donald Trump, who suggested the possibility of new tariff exemptions.On Monday, Trump indicated he is considering temporary relief from the 25% tariffs on the auto sector, aiming to give manufacturers time to realign their supply chains. He also announced exemptions for key technology products under his new “reciprocal” tariffs, which helped boost global risk sentiment.Additionally, crude prices gained momentum on Friday after the Trump administration announced tariff exclusions for smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices—many of which are sourced from China.Oil prices also found support from a sharp rebound in Chinese crude imports. Data released on Monday showed China’s crude Oil imports in March rose nearly 5% year-over-year, fueled in part by increased purchases of Iranian Oil ahead of expected tighter US sanctions.However, gains may be capped as OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, revised down its Oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The group now expects demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 1.28 million bpd in 2026—lower than previous estimates of 1.45 million and 1.43 million bpd, respectively—citing weak first-quarter data and the impact of new US trade measures. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
06:05 Indonesia Consumer Confidence: 121.1 (March) vs previous 126.4
Indonesia Consumer Confidence: 121.1 (March) vs previous 126.4
06:00 South Korea Money Supply Growth fell from previous 5.7% to 5.6% in February
South Korea Money Supply Growth fell from previous 5.7% to 5.6% in February
05:48 USD/CAD stabilizes around 1.3900 after rebounding from five-month lows
USD/CAD halts its four-day losing streak, trading around 1.3890 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair edges higher as the US Dollar (USD) attempts to stabilize amid mounting concerns over stagflation.
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The pair edges higher as the US Dollar (USD) attempts to stabilize amid mounting concerns over stagflation. Traders will likely observe BoC Consumer Price Index Core data for March due later in the day.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic remarked during early Tuesday’s market session that the US central bank still has a long road ahead to achieve its 2% inflation target, casting doubt on market expectations for additional interest rate cuts.Deutsche Bank now forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut in December—reversing its previous stance of no cuts in 2025—followed by two more cuts in Q1 2026. The terminal rate is projected at 3.5–3.75%.Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD), a risk-sensitive currency, saw support as market sentiment improved following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of tariff exemptions on select tech products—such as smartphones, laptops, and other electronics. The move helped ease fears of a broader economic slowdown amid escalating US-China trade tensions.Canada’s 10-year government bond yield slipped to 3.12% on Tuesday, retreating from a recent high of 3.27%, recorded on April 11, as investors adjusted to shifting trade dynamics and persistent global uncertainties in line with broader market trends. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
05:33 Japanese Yen trades with negative bias against a recovering USD; bullish bias remains
The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, lifts the USD/JPY pair closer to mid-143.00s.
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Concerns about Trump’s tariffs and hopes for a US-Japan trade deal could limit JPY losses.The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations should contribute to capping the USD/JPY pair.The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, lifts the USD/JPY pair closer to mid-143.00s. US President Donald Trump's tariff reprieve on key consumer electronics and signaled that he may temporarily exempt the auto industry from the 25% levies remain supportive of the upbeat market mood. This, in turn, is seen undermining demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY. However, the rapidly escalating US-China trade war and persistent worries about the potential economic fallout from Trump's disruptive tariffs should keep a lid on the market optimism. Meanwhile, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates mark a big divergence in comparison to bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, along with hopes for a US-Japan trade deal, should limit losses for the lower-yielding JPY. Japanese Yen bulls turn cautious amid the upbeat market mood; downside potential seems limitedOn Monday, US President Donald Trump said that he was looking into possible exemptions for the auto industry from the 25% tariffs as car companies need a little bit of time to transition to US-made parts. This comes after the White House announced that smartphones, computers, and other electronics imported largely from China would be temporarily exempted from Trump’s punishing reciprocal tariffs. Moreover, the rest of the world would be given a 90-day reprieve on additional duties beyond the new 10% tariffs. Trump, however, said that exemptions were only temporary and added that he would unveil tariffs on imported semiconductors over the next week. Trump also threatened that he would impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals in the not-too-distant future and kept in place 145% duties on Chinese imports.Investors pared their bets for early interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan on the back of increasing uncertainty over US tariff policy. The BoJ, however, is still expected to raise the policy rate amid rising domestic prices and wages. In contrast, the markets have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon amid a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Trump administration's tariffs posed a significant shock to the US economy that might force the US central bank to cut rates to avert a recession. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that we still have a ways to go on inflation as tariffs could place upward pressure on prices. The Fed is unable to make bold moves in any direction, Bostic added. Meanwhile, market players remain optimistic about a positive outcome from US-Japan trade talks. In fact, Trump said last week that tough but fair parameters are being set for a negotiation. Adding to this, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Japan may be a priority in tariff negotiations, fueling hopes for a US-Japan trade deal. This should continue to act as a tailwind for the Japanese Yen. Tuesday's US economic docket features the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which, along with trade-related developments, might influence the US Dollar. The focus, however, will remain glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday, which will be scrutinized for cues about the future rate-cut path. This, in turn, will influence the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY might struggle to build on modest intraday gains and face a stiff hurdle near the 144.00 markFrom a technical perspective, any subsequent move-up is likely to confront stiff resistance and cap the USD/JPY pair near the 144.00 mark, or the overnight swing high. A sustained strength beyond, however, might trigger a short-covering rally and lift spot prices to the 144.45-144.50 horizontal barrier en route to the 145.00 psychological mark. The momentum could extend further towards the 145.50 zone and the 146.00 round figure.On the flip side, weakness back below the 143.00 mark now seems to find some support near the 142.25-142.20 area ahead of the 142.00 mark, or a multi-month low touched last Friday. A convincing break below would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the USD/JPY pair to the 141.65-141.60 support en route to the 141.00 mark. The subsequent fall would expose the 140.75 support and the September 2024 swing low, around the 140.30-140.25 region, before spot prices eventually drop to the 140.00 psychological mark. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
05:18 South Korea Trade Balance dipped from previous $4.99B to $4.92B in March
South Korea Trade Balance dipped from previous $4.99B to $4.92B in March
05:15 Australian Dollar remains stronger following RBA Meeting Minutes
The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens for a fifth straight session against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The AUD/USD pair continued to gain momentum after US President Donald Trump exempted key technology products from his new “reciprocal” tariffs, lifting global risk sentiment.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar strengthened after Trump exempted key technology products — including some from China — from his new “reciprocal” tariffs.RBA Meeting Minutes indicated uncertainty over the timing of the next interest rate move.The US Dollar is trying to steady as investors weigh rising stagflation concerns.The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens for a fifth straight session against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The AUD/USD pair continued to gain momentum after US President Donald Trump exempted key technology products from his new “reciprocal” tariffs, lifting global risk sentiment.The exemptions cover items largely produced in China—such as smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells, and flat-panel displays—offering a boost to the AUD, as China remains Australia’s largest trading partner and a major consumer of its commodities. Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) March 31–April 1 meeting suggested that the timing of the next interest rate move remains uncertain. While the Board noted that the May meeting would be an appropriate time to reassess policy, it emphasized that no decision had been predetermined.Members acknowledged that global uncertainty, particularly surrounding US tariffs, could significantly affect the outlook. The Board also highlighted both upside and downside risks to the Australian economy and inflation. Australia’s 10-year government bond yield slipped to approximately 4.33%. While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates unchanged this month, it struck a more dovish tone on future cuts, pointing to easing core inflation. Markets are currently factoring in a 25-basis point cut in May and anticipate around 120 basis points of total easing over the course of the year.Australian Dollar appreciates due to eroding investor confidence in US assetsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of six major currencies, inched higher after hitting its lowest level since 2022. The DXY is trading around 99.90 and attempting to stabilize as investors respond to growing signs of stagflation risks.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic remarked during early Tuesday’s market session that the US central bank still has a long road ahead to achieve its 2% inflation target, casting doubt on market expectations for additional interest rate cuts.The University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped to 50.8 in April, while one-year inflation expectations surged to 6.7%. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in March, down from 3.2% in February, with the core rate easing to 3.3%. Jobless claims ticked up to 223,000, although continuing claims declined to 1.85 million—pointing to a mixed picture in the labor market.On Sunday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on CBS' Face the Nation that the economic fallout from Trump’s trade war would largely depend on how quickly trade uncertainties are resolved. “This is the biggest hit to confidence that I can recall in the 10 years I’ve been at the Fed—except for March 2020 when COVID first hit,” Kashkari remarked.Escalating trade tensions between the US and China have revived concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. On Friday, China’s Ministry of Finance announced a sharp increase in tariffs on US goods, raising them from 84% to 125%. This action came in response to President Trump’s earlier move to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year in March, down from 2.8% in February and below the market forecast of 2.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.8% annually, compared to 3.1% previously and missing the 3.0% estimate. On a monthly basis, headline CPI dipped by 0.1%, while core CPI edged up by 0.1%.Minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting suggested that policymakers are nearly unanimous in recognizing the dual challenge of rising inflation and slowing growth, cautioning that the Federal Reserve faces “difficult tradeoffs” in the months ahead.China’s Trade Balance for March, measured in Chinese Yuan (CNY), recorded a substantial increase to CNY 736.72 billion, up sharply from CNY 122 billion in the previous month. In US Dollar (USD) terms, the trade surplus also exceeded expectations, coming in at $102.6 billion—well above the forecast of $77 billion, though lower than the prior $170.51 billion.China’s Exports rose 13.5% year-over-year in March, accelerating from 3.4% in February, while imports declined 3.5% YoY, a smaller drop compared to the 7.3% contraction previously reported.The General Administration of Customs of China acknowledged the challenges facing the country’s exports, calling the current external environment “complex and severe.” Despite this, officials expressed confidence, stating that “the sky will not fall.” They reported a solid start to the year, with foreign trade showing growth in both volume and quality. The agency also emphasized China’s commitment to enforcing all measures necessary to counter US actions and to uphold its national sovereignty and security.The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to implement further monetary easing in Q2 2025. This includes a potential 15 basis point cut to the loan prime rate (LPR) and a minimum 25 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). According to Citi analysts, cited in a Reuters report, there’s an increasing likelihood that domestic stimulus measures will be accelerated in response to mounting external pressures.Australian Dollar rises to near 0.6350 due to persistent bullish bias The AUD/USD pair is trading near the 0.6340 mark on Tuesday, with technical indicators on the daily chart pointing to a bullish bias. The pair remains above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the neutral 50 level, reinforcing the positive momentum.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may aim for psychological resistance at 0.6400, followed by the four-month high of 0.6408. Immediate support is seen at the 50-day EMA around 0.6270, with further support at the nine-day EMA near 0.6240. A decisive break below these levels could undermine the short-term bullish structure, opening the door to further downside toward the 0.5914 zone—its lowest since March 2020—and the key psychological level of 0.5900.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.14% 0.04% 0.13% 0.08% -0.26% -0.39% 0.28% EUR -0.14% -0.10% 0.02% -0.05% -0.33% -0.53% 0.16% GBP -0.04% 0.10% 0.11% 0.04% -0.22% -0.43% 0.26% JPY -0.13% -0.02% -0.11% -0.07% -0.37% -0.67% 0.13% CAD -0.08% 0.05% -0.04% 0.07% -0.30% -0.47% 0.21% AUD 0.26% 0.33% 0.22% 0.37% 0.30% -0.20% 0.48% NZD 0.39% 0.53% 0.43% 0.67% 0.47% 0.20% 0.69% CHF -0.28% -0.16% -0.26% -0.13% -0.21% -0.48% -0.69% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:58 Japan’s Kato: Excessive volatility would negatively affect economic and financial stability
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said on Tuesday, “excessive volatility would negatively affect economic and financial stability.”
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said on Tuesday, “excessive volatility would negatively affect economic and financial stability.”Additional quotesPlanning to attend the Spring meetings of IMF, World Bank in Washington.Forex rates should be determined by markets.Have agreed with Bessent to closely communicate on forex.Closely monitoring financial markets as they have been unstable recently.Market reactionUSD/JPY was last seen trading at 143.40, down 0.07% on the day.
04:47 RBA Minutes: May meeting would be opportune time to reconsider
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the Minutes of its April monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, which showed that board members agreed the May meeting would be an opportune time to reconsider, decision was not predetermined.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the Minutes of its April monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, which showed that board members agreed the May meeting would be an opportune time to reconsider, decision was not predetermined.Additional takeawaysNot yet possible to determine timing of next move in rates.Not appropriate at this stage for policy to react to potential risks.Possible that global uncertainty over U.S. tariffs could have significant impact.Global risks to growth had increased, were tilted to the downside.Board saw risks on upside and downside for Australian economy and inflation.Important to safeguard progress on inflation and not ease policy "prematurely".Labour market still considered tight, labour costs too high and productivity low.Possibility labour market not as tight as thought, wage growth could continue to slow.Trimmed mean inflation likely fell below 3% in Q1.Data pointed to genuine improvement in consumer demand, beyond just sales events.Board considered run down of RBA government bond holdings, saw no reason to change pace.Governance board to consider risks in scale and maturity of bond holdings.Market reactionAUD/USD jumped to test 0.6350 following the RBA Minutes release. The pair is currently trading at 0.6337, up 0.84% on the day. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
04:37 Senior BoJ official: BoJ will continue to scrutinize market developments and their impact on Japan
A senior Bank of Japan (BoJ) official crossed the wires in the last hour, citing US President Donald Trump's tariffs as a cause of volatile market moves.
A senior Bank of Japan (BoJ) official crossed the wires in the last hour, citing US President Donald Trump's tariffs as a cause of volatile market moves.Key quotes:Markets, particularly US stocks, and long-term interest rates, making volatile moves due in part to U.S. tariff policy.Unlike during the global financial crisis, we are not seeing a sharp shrinkage of liquidity.BOJ will continue to scrutinize market developments and their impact on Japan, and overseas economies.Market reaction:The Japanese Yen (JPY) retains its negative bias, which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, keeps the USD/JPY pair well bid just below the mid-143.00s.
04:16 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2096 vs. 7.2110 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.2096 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2110 and 7.3094 Reuters estimate.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.2096 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2110 and 7.3094 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
02:56 Fed's Bostic: Economic outcome depends on administration policy
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic noted during the early Tuesday market session that the Fed still has a long way to go to hit its 2% inflation mandate, complicating market expectations for further rate cuts.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic noted during the early Tuesday market session that the Fed still has a long way to go to hit its 2% inflation mandate, complicating market expectations for further rate cuts.Key highlightsVariety of potential results has increased.
Boundaries of what I thought could be possible have been exceeded.
Labor market is maintaining full employment.
We still have a ways to go on inflation.
Still have a long way to reach 2% inflation mandate.
The Fed is unable to make bold moves in any direction.
There is a thick fog ahead, the economy is on a big pause.
Businesses, households lack confidence in making significant investments.
Tariffs imply prices are likely to increase, so timing of reaching inflation target is likely to be delayed.
Tariffs to place upward pressure on prices.
Bostic still projects economic growth of over 1% this year.
Where economy lands depends on specifics of government policies.
Bold moves with policy not prudent.
Boundaries of what I thought could be possible have been exceeded.
Labor market is maintaining full employment.
We still have a ways to go on inflation.
Still have a long way to reach 2% inflation mandate.
The Fed is unable to make bold moves in any direction.
There is a thick fog ahead, the economy is on a big pause.
Businesses, households lack confidence in making significant investments.
Tariffs imply prices are likely to increase, so timing of reaching inflation target is likely to be delayed.
Tariffs to place upward pressure on prices.
Bostic still projects economic growth of over 1% this year.
Where economy lands depends on specifics of government policies.
Bold moves with policy not prudent.
02:51 EUR/USD loses momentum with ECB rate call looming on the horizon
EUR/USD spun in a messy circle on Monday, touching the 1.1400 and 1.1300 levels before settling somewhere in the midrange.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD flattened on Monday, churning between 1.1400 and 1.1300.The Euro’s multi-session recovery against the Greenback could be poised for a pause.Another rate call from the ECB is on the cards this week, markets are broadly expecting a defensive quarter-point rate cut.EUR/USD spun in a messy circle on Monday, touching the 1.1400 and 1.1300 levels before settling somewhere in the midrange. The US Dollar continues to soften across the board following the Trump administration’s latest about-face on its own tariff threats, but market sentiment remains tepid as investor fears of continued trade tensions simmer in the background.Tuesday will bring a smattering of European mid-tier sentiment indicators, followed by US Retail Sales data slated for Wednesday. However, the key schedule item for EUR/USD this week will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest rate call on Thursday.Markets are overwhelmingly anticipating another quarter-point rate trim from the ECB this week as policymakers brace for steepening economic fallout from the Trump administration’s ever-changing tariff policies.EUR/USD price forecastEUR/USD price action has been plagued by halting stop-and-start momentum, making jerky bullish progress ever since piercing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0650 in early March. Technical bias still favors bidders for the time being, but technical oscillators are beginning to flash warning signs of overbought conditions.EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:30 GBP/USD recovery rally continues uninterrupted for a fifth straight session
GBP/USD rose three-quarters of one percent on Monday, climbing for a fifth straight trading session as the Pound Sterling continues to reclaim ground against the softening Greenback.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD rose another 0.75% on Monday, climbing for a week straight.The Sterling’s broad recovery against the Greenback is poised to run up against key UK data this week.UK labor figures are due on Tuesday, followed by UK CPI inflation data on Wednesday.GBP/USD rose three-quarters of one percent on Monday, climbing for a fifth straight trading session as the Pound Sterling continues to reclaim ground against the softening Greenback. Despite the GBP’s firm run up the charts against the USD, challenges still lie ahead with key UK economic data on the release docket for this week.UK labor data will be posted early during the Tuesday London market session. The ILO Unemployment Rate for the 3 months ended in February is expected to hold steady at 4.4%, and the Claimant Count Change for March is forecast to ease to 30.3K from February’s 44.2K.UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures will be posted on Wednesday. Headline UK CPI inflation is forecast to tick down to 2.7% YoY from the previous period’s 2.8%, while core CPI inflation is expected to remain stubbornly pinned at 3.5% YoY.GBP/USD price forecastGBP/USD is testing multi-month highs near the 1.3200 handle after rising for a week straight. Cable has risen 3.88% bottom-to-top after the last swing low into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2700.GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:17 RBNZ's Conway: Inflation risks have shifted toward the downside
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway noted early Tuesday that inflation risks are continuing to rise.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway noted early Tuesday that inflation risks are continuing to rise.Key highlightsLikely impacts on inflation in New Zealand more ambiguous, but balance of risks shifted to the downside.
Tariff uncertainty means growth likely weaker.
Inflation balance of risks shifted to downside.
Potential to reduce rates more once impacts are clearer.
RBNZ to provide GDP nowcast on official website, updated weekly.
Hopefully what President Trump put out on tariffs before the pause is worst case scenario.
Enhancing global macro model for trade disruption.
Tariff uncertainty means growth likely weaker.
Inflation balance of risks shifted to downside.
Potential to reduce rates more once impacts are clearer.
RBNZ to provide GDP nowcast on official website, updated weekly.
Hopefully what President Trump put out on tariffs before the pause is worst case scenario.
Enhancing global macro model for trade disruption.
00:50 AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Pair remains under pressure below key moving averages
The AUD/NZD pair continues to reflect bearish dynamics on Monday’s session , with price action hovering near the 1.0800 region. Despite a modest rebound, the broader technical structure remains tilted to the downside.
AUD/NZD was seen trading near the 1.0840 zone, mildly recovering after earlier lossesThe pair maintains a strong bearish outlook, trading below all major moving averagesMomentum indicators suggest continued downside, though RSI signals nearing oversold conditionsThe AUD/NZD pair continues to reflect bearish dynamics on Monday’s session , with price action hovering near the 1.0800 region. Despite a modest rebound, the broader technical structure remains tilted to the downside.The pair is firmly capped by all major moving averages — both simple and exponential — from short to long-term periods. Notably, the 10-day EMA at 1.08495, 50-day EMA at 1.09701, and 100-day SMA at 1.10280 all point south, while the 200-day SMA at 1.10080 reinforces the longer-term bearish bias. Price has failed to break above any of these key averages, confirming sustained downside pressure.Momentum indicators are aligned with the bearish theme. The MACD continues to print red bars, while the Momentum oscillator at −0.02370 also suggests weak buying interest. Meanwhile, the RSI sits at 33.10 approaching oversold territory, which may slow the pace of losses but does not yet support a reversal.Support is seen at 1.0800 and 1.0765, with deeper losses eyeing the 1.0720 zone. Resistance levels are stacked at 1.0850, 1.0900, and 1.0970 (50-day EMA). For now, the technical landscape favors sellers while the pair remains suppressed below these moving averages.Daily chart
00:05 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls gain traction ahead of key resistance zone
The NZD/USD pair extended its upside during Monday’s session ahead of the Asian open, climbing near the 0.5900 zone and logging a daily gain of nearly 1%.
NZD/USD trades near the 0.5900 area, supported by bullish momentum into Monday’s Asian sessionShort-term moving averages align to the upside, but MACD and 200-day SMA raise cautionResistance eyed near 0.5890–0.5900, while support sits just above the 0.5700 handleThe NZD/USD pair extended its upside during Monday’s session ahead of the Asian open, climbing near the 0.5900 zone and logging a daily gain of nearly 1%. The pair is advancing within the upper portion of its daily range, suggesting ongoing bullish traction despite lingering longer-term bearish risks.Momentum remains mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands neutral at 53.82, while the Stochastic RSI Fast and Awesome Oscillator are hovering in neutral territory.On the supportive side, shorter-term moving averages offer a constructive backdrop. The 10-day EMA and SMA, at 0.56685 and 0.56688 respectively, point upward, alongside the 20-day SMA at 0.57156 and the 100-day SMA at 0.57072. These help validate the bullish narrative. However, the 200-day SMA at 0.58946 looms above as potential resistance and could cap further advances unless decisively breached.
Daily chart
Daily chart
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