Forex News Timeline

23:21 Australian Dollar under pressure as global trade and economic uncertainties persist
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure as global trade uncertainties persist, particularly surrounding the US-China trade talks.

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Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar is currently trading around 0.6400, up 0.30% on the day. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54.85 suggests a neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a sell signal. Short-term moving averages, including the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6401, suggest a bullish outlook, supported by the 100-day SMA at 0.6289 and the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6419. However, the 200-day SMA at 0.6460 indicates a bearish trend. Key support levels are at 0.6419, 0.6413, and 0.6401, with resistance at 0.6425, 0.6431, and 0.6460.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

23:05 Mexican Peso firms despite weak data as trades turn cautious on US-China talks
The Mexican Peso (MXN) registered modest gains versus the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as market participants turned cautious ahead of the US-China talks in Switzerland.

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The emerging market (EM) currency remained unfazed by a worse-than-expected economic outlook as Mexico’s data continued to deteriorate.At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.46, below its opening price by 0.33%, testing the current year-to-date (YTD) low.Mexico’s Consumer Confidence, as revealed by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (INEGI), showed that households have become pessimistic about the outlook in April. Figures fell from 46 to 45.3 for the seventh straight month.Other data revealed by INEGI included Automobile Production and Exports, with both figures declining as new US tariffs on cars impacted production, leading to a reduction in shipments to the US.Despite posting dismal economic data, the Peso strengthened with the USD/MXN falling for the fourth consecutive day.Across the northern border, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials made headlines. They emphasized that current monetary policy is appropriate and that the central bank needs to wait and see how tariffs impact the US economy.Daily digest market movers: Weakness in the automobile industry to weigh on the Mexican PesoAuto Production plummeted 9.1% in April, down from an increase of 12.1% the previous month. Among the major brands that reduced their production are Stellantis, down -46.7%, followed by BMW at -27.1%.Mexico’s April Auto Exports plunged by -10.9% following a rise of 3.8% in March, revealed INEGI. Mazda and Volkswagen experienced decreases of -60.9% and -44.4%, respectively, in exports.Mexico’s inflation data in April rose by 3.93% YoY, above forecasts of 3.90%. Core prices increased by 3.93% up from 3.64% above estimates of 3.92%.Trader’s focus shifted to Banco de Mexico (Banxico) monetary policy meeting in May 15. Economists surveyed by Citi expect a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Mexican institution, supported by the latest policy statement revealed by the central bank.Although Mexico’s economy narrowly avoided a technical recession, tariffs imposed on Mexican products, a reduced budget, and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to strain the country’s finances and impact the Peso.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso regains strength as USD/MXN tests YTD lowThe USD/MXN is testing the YTD low, yet sellers are clashing with buyers as market players prepare for the weekend. A daily/weekly close below 19.50 could exacerbate a move toward the 19.00 figure.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) favors sellers, indicating that further weakness lies ahead.Conversely, if buyers lift the USD/MXN past 19.59, the next resistance would be the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.66, followed by the 200-day SMA at 19.99 ahead of the 50-day SMA at 20.02. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

22:37 Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions: €75.7K vs previous €75.8K
Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions: €75.7K vs previous €75.8K

22:37 Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions rose from previous $-49.9K to $-48.4K
Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions rose from previous $-49.9K to $-48.4K

22:36 United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions rose from previous $-78.7K to $-76.4K
United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions rose from previous $-78.7K to $-76.4K

22:36 United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $162.5K vs previous $163.3K
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $162.5K vs previous $163.3K

22:36 United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £24K to £29.2K
United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £24K to £29.2K

22:36 United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions down to 175.4K from previous 177.2K
United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions down to 175.4K from previous 177.2K

22:36 Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions dipped from previous ¥179.2K to ¥176.9K
Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions dipped from previous ¥179.2K to ¥176.9K

21:39 Gold price rises over 1% on USD weakness as geopolitical tensions rise
Gold price climbed over 1% on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) retreated after posting two days of gains, weighed by lower US yields. A deterioration in risk appetite boosted Bullion prices, which are being underpinned by geopolitical concerns. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,338.

21:37 Canadian Dollar flatlines on Friday as markets look elsewhere
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) flattened on Friday, sticking close to 1.3900 against the US Dollar (USD) as Loonie markets struggle to find a reason to move too far in either direction.

21:30 USD/JPY pauses near resistance as breakout decision looms
The USD/JPY pair remains a focal point in the foreign exchange market, fluctuating within a key technical zone as markets digest evolving economic and monetary policy expectations.

21:16 US Dollar slides as markets brace for China trade talks
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, reverses sharply on Friday after hitting a near one-month high of 100.86 earlier in the day.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, reverses sharply on Friday after hitting a near one-month high of 100.86 earlier in the day. Disappointment surrounding the so-called US-UK trade deal weighed heavily on the Greenback, with investors focusing on this weekend’s critical trade negotiations between the United States and China in Switzerland.Daily digest market movers: US Dollar softens ahead of key talksThe US-UK trade deal is being written off by markets as non-substantive, with US tariffs on UK goods remaining at 10%.Market focus shifts to US-China trade talks this weekend, where discussions are expected to be tense and inconclusive.President Trump hinted that tariffs on Chinese goods could fall to 50% if cooperation improves, though skepticism prevails.Chinese refineries imported 11.7 million barrels per day in April, with stockpiling driven by lower crude oil prices.US places Chinese independent refineries on the sanctions list for purchasing Iranian oil, adding pressure before trade talks.Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams emphasized the importance of maintaining stable long-term inflation expectations.Fed Governor Adriana Kugler highlighted the current policy rate as moderately restrictive, suggesting it will remain unchanged.Commerzbank analysts warn that high Chinese crude imports are unlikely to sustain as US sanctions tighten further.Fed policymakers stressed that the economy remains healthy but warned of possible downside risks from elevated tariffs.Despite a short-term rise, the US Dollar Index faces selling pressure as stagflation risks emerge from persistent tariffs.The market now awaits concrete outcomes from the Fed’s next policy moves and potential inflation developments.The US sanctions against Chinese refineries are expected to weigh on China’s energy sector, potentially impacting trade talks.Iranian Oil imports from China remain high at 1.5 million barrels per day but could decline following US sanctions.Investors remain cautious, keeping a close eye on headline risks and weekend developments from the China-US meetings.

US Dollar Index technical analysis: DXY tests support
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades around the 100.00 level, down over 0.30% on the day, after earlier testing highs near 100.86. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 and the Ultimate Oscillator at 59 show neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flashes a buy signal. The Average Directional Index at 44 remains neutral, indicating no strong trend bias. Short-term buyers are supported by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 99.64, but longer-term resistance remains firm with the 100-day SMA at 105.11 and the 200-day SMA at 104.31 signaling continued selling pressure. Immediate support is located at 100.28, 100.24 and 99.97, while resistance is seen at 100.73, 100.80 and 100.86.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

20:38 US Press Secretary Leavitt: Trump will not bring down tariffs on China
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt addressed media staff on Friday, walking back some of the tone and market interpretations of President Donald Trump's early morning tweets.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt addressed media staff on Friday, walking back some of the tone and market interpretations of President Donald Trump's early morning tweets.Key highlightsTrump confident in US Treasury Secretary Bessent with discussions (with China).

The US needs to see concessions from China.

Trump committed to the 10% baseline tariff.

The 10% baseline tariff will remain for the UK.

It is ridiculous that Trump would do anything for his own gain.

The White House will let Congress work out SALT tax issue.

On possible 80% tariff concession: That's not what Trump said.

Trump will not unilaterally bring down tariffs on China. 80% was a number Trump threw out there.

20:31 Dow Jones Industrial Average retreats as US-China trade talks loom
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) followed the broader market lower on Friday, declining to 41,150 as investors gear up for a tense weekend.

20:02 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count fell from previous 479 to 474
United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count fell from previous 479 to 474

20:00 EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Euro drifts near 0.8500 as bearish pressure builds
The EUR/GBP pair edged lower on Friday, trading near the 0.8500 zone after the European session as selling pressure remained consistent. The pair settled within the middle of its daily range, reflecting cautious sentiment despite the broader bearish tone.

EUR/GBP trades near the 0.8500 zone after slipping modestly in Friday’s session.Short-term signals remain bearish despite mixed long-term support.Key support levels hold below, while resistance aligns just overhead.The EUR/GBP pair edged lower on Friday, trading near the 0.8500 zone after the European session as selling pressure remained consistent. The pair settled within the middle of its daily range, reflecting cautious sentiment despite the broader bearish tone. Short-term signals continue to weigh on the pair, while longer-term moving averages offer a more supportive backdrop.Technically, the pair is flashing a bearish overall signal. The Relative Strength Index is neutral near 45, suggesting balanced momentum without immediate directional conviction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence prints a clear sell signal, confirming the downside bias, while the Stochastic RSI Fast also holds neutral, reflecting a lack of short-term directional strength. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index remains neutral, indicating that the bearish trend lacks significant strength at the moment.The short-term moving averages add to the downside pressure. Both the 10-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages are positioned above the current price and slope downward, reinforcing immediate resistance. Similarly, the 20-day Simple Moving Average remains above spot and trends lower, further capping recovery attempts. In contrast, the longer-term 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages sit well below current levels and continue to point upward, suggesting that broader structural support remains intact despite the short-term weakness.Support levels are identified at 0.8470, 0.8461, and 0.8430. Resistance stands at 0.8483, 0.8497, and 0.8497. A sustained break below the immediate support zone could deepen the sell-off, while a move above resistance would be needed to challenge the prevailing bearish outlook.Daily Chart

19:15 USD/CHF struggles as trade talk uncertainty and stagflation fears weigh on sentiment
The USD/CHF pair is navigating a critical juncture as it trades near a key support level, with broader market sentiment clouded by trade talk uncertainties.

USD/CHF is trading near a critical support area as the US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses course ahead of US-China trade talks in Switzerland this weekend.Fed officials have highlighted stagflation risks, noting the potential for rising inflation and unemployment if tariffs remain elevated.Technically, the DXY faces immediate support at 100.2200 and resistance at 101.9000, while the USD/CHF could test its recent lows if the Dollar weakens further.The USD/CHF pair is navigating a critical juncture as it trades near a key support level, with broader market sentiment clouded by trade talk uncertainties. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, has recently pulled back to 100.3000 after hitting a near-month high of 100.8600. This reversal comes as markets digest the implications of US-China trade talks set for this weekend in Switzerland, along with concerns over a lackluster UK trade deal that failed to remove key tariffs. Despite hopes for a breakthrough, the US position appears weaker, with President Trump suggesting that tariffs could be cut by 50% if China cooperates, though this remains highly uncertain.From a fundamental perspective, the Fed remains cautious about the economic outlook. Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, emphasized the need for price stability, while Governor Adriana Kugler noted that the current policy stance is "moderately restrictive," hinting that rates may remain high despite slowing growth. Additionally, the Atlanta Fed recently revised its Q2 GDPNow model to 2.3% SAAR, reflecting a solid growth outlook, though the risk of stagflation remains as tariffs continue to disrupt global supply chains.Technical AnalysisTechnically, the DXY is testing support at 100.2200, a former resistance level that could act as a base if bearish sentiment persists. Below this, the next support lies at 97.7300, with deeper levels at 96.9400, 95.2500, and 94.5600 if downside pressure intensifies. On the upside, resistance is seen at 101.9000, followed by the 55-day SMA at 102.4700. For the USD/CHF, a break below recent support could open the door to fresh multi-year lows, with potential targets around 0.8900 and 0.8800 if the broader USD sentiment remains weak.Daily Chart

19:00 GBP/USD gains on US-UK agreement, holds near 1.33
The Pound Sterling posted solid gains on Friday, edging up 0.41% after the announcement of a trade deal between the US and the UK on Thursday.

18:30 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro steadies near 1.1300 as bullish signals gain traction
The EUR/USD pair advanced modestly on Friday, trading near the 1.1300 zone after the European session. Price action remained contained within the day’s range, reflecting steady demand despite mixed short-term momentum signals.

EUR/USD trades near the 1.1300 zone after gaining modestly in Friday’s session.Mixed short-term indicators contrast with a broadly bullish long-term structure.Key support holds just below, while resistance aligns near recent highs.The EUR/USD pair advanced modestly on Friday, trading near the 1.1300 zone after the European session. Price action remained contained within the day’s range, reflecting steady demand despite mixed short-term momentum signals. The broader technical picture, however, remains constructive, with long-term averages reinforcing the underlying bullish bias.Technically, the pair presents a mixed but generally positive outlook. The Relative Strength Index sits in neutral territory around 52, suggesting balanced momentum without immediate overbought pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence, however, continues to flash a sell signal, indicating that short-term gains may face resistance. Meanwhile, the Williams Percent Range and 10-period Momentum both suggest a buy, adding a counterweight to the MACD’s more cautious tone.The broader structure is clearly tilted to the upside. The 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, positioned well below current levels, remain firmly bullish, reflecting sustained medium-term demand. Supporting this outlook are the 30-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages, both trending higher and sitting just under current price action, providing dynamic support. In contrast, the 20-day SMA sits slightly above spot and may act as near-term resistance, capping immediate gains.Support is located at 1.1226, 1.1225, and 1.1209. Resistance is found at 1.1266, 1.1273, and 1.1302. A sustained move above the immediate resistance band could confirm the broader bullish trend, while a drop below nearby support may trigger a brief corrective pullback.Daily Chart

17:49 EUR/JPY retreats from highs as Trump tariff threat tempers trade optimism
The EUR/JPY pair is trading lower on Friday, weighed down by renewed US–China trade tensions, mixed economic data out of Japan, and cautious investor positioning ahead of a scheduled speech by European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel.

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The EUR/JPY pair is trading lower on Friday, weighed down by renewed US–China trade tensions, mixed economic data out of Japan, and cautious investor positioning ahead of a scheduled speech by European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. At the time of writing, EUR/JPY is down 0.20% at 163.45, as markets recalibrate expectations around safe-haven demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY) and continued Euro (EUR) resilience stemming from the ECB–Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy divergence.Revived US–China trade talks lift mood, but Trump’s tariff warning reins in optimismA key market driver this week has been the prospect of revived high-level trade talks between the United States and China. Initial optimism was supported by confirmation that high-level trade talks between the United States and China will proceed on Saturday in Switzerland, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are expected meeting senior Chinese officials. However, risk sentiment eased after US President Donald Trump suggested an 80% tariff on China, signaling a potential softening from the current 145% rate but still creating uncertainty. This ambiguity has capped gains in risk-sensitive currencies while supporting safe havens like the JPY. ECB’s Schnabel in focus as policy divergence with BoJ remains key driverECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel is speaking at the Hoover Institution’s monetary conference in the US. Known for her hawkish stance, Schnabel’s remarks will be closely watched for insights on inflation and future rate cuts, as the ECB signals a cautious shift toward easing.Markets expect a 25 basis point cut in June, but policymakers remain data-dependent. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan maintains an ultra-loose monetary stance, contrasting with the ECB’s trajectory and supporting EUR/JPY strength. Any hint of prolonged ECB restrictiveness could further boost the Euro.Weak Japanese data highlights BoJ’s dovish path, limits Yen supportEarlier on Friday, Japan released key economic indicators for March that offered a mixed snapshot of domestic conditions. The preliminary Coincident Index fell to 116.0 from a revised 117.3, suggesting a slowdown in current economic momentum. Meanwhile, the Leading Economic Index printed at 107.7, slightly above forecasts (107.5) but down from the previous 108.2, hinting at softer expectations for future growth.These figures reinforce the view that the BoJ will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance, particularly in the absence of inflationary or growth pressures. EUR/JPY stabilizes after rejection from 163.94 resistanceEUR/JPY is consolidating around 163.45, having tested intraday resistance at 163.94 during early Friday trading. The pair continues to trade above its 50-day (161.80) and 200-day (161.32) Simple Moving Averages, which recently formed a golden cross, reinforcing a bullish medium-term outlook.Upside momentum remains contained below 163.94, with a confirmed daily close above this level needed to expose the March high at 164.64. Support is seen at the 163.00 psychological level, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July–August 2024 rally at 162.44. A break below that zone would bring the moving average cluster near 161.80–161.32 into focus.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently holding around 55.78, suggesting modest bullish momentum without overbought conditions.EUR/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

17:30 USD/JPY corrects to near 145.00 as US Dollar retraces, US-China trade talks in spotlight
The USD/JPY pair retraces to near 145.00 during North American trading hours on Friday after failing to extend its upside above almost a month's high of 146.20 earlier in the day.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY falls back to near as the US Dollar corrects ahead of trade talks between the US and China.US President Trump announced that tariffs on China could be lowered to 80%.Japan’s Overall Household Spending rose at a robust pace of 2.1% on year in March.The USD/JPY pair retraces to near 145.00 during North American trading hours on Friday after failing to extend its upside above almost a month's high of 146.20 earlier in the day. The pair corrects as the US Dollar (USD) falls back, with investors turning cautious ahead of trade talks between the United States (US) and China on Saturday.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, gives back its initial gains and falls to near 100.30.Investors will pay close attention to the US-China trade talks as the ongoing tariff war between them has led market experts to downgrade the US and the global economic outlook.Ahead of the US-China meeting, President Donald Trump has signaled that tariffs on Beijing could be reduced to 80% through a post on Truth.Social. "80% Tariff on China seems right! It's up to Scott Bessent," Trump said.In last two trading sessions, the US Dollar traded firmly as the Federal Reserve (Fed) guided that there is no rush for interest rate cuts in the monetary policy announcement on Wednesday and the declaration of US-United Kingdom (UK) trade deal, the first by the White House since the release of reciprocal tariffs.Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms its peers on Friday as uncertainty ahead of Sino-US trade talks has increased its safe-haven demand. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.57% -0.52% -0.71% -0.01% -0.47% -0.23% -0.59% EUR 0.57% 0.03% -0.18% 0.55% 0.10% 0.33% -0.04% GBP 0.52% -0.03% -0.21% 0.52% 0.06% 0.29% -0.04% JPY 0.71% 0.18% 0.21% 0.72% 0.26% 0.48% 0.16% CAD 0.00% -0.55% -0.52% -0.72% -0.47% -0.22% -0.56% AUD 0.47% -0.10% -0.06% -0.26% 0.47% 0.23% -0.10% NZD 0.23% -0.33% -0.29% -0.48% 0.22% -0.23% -0.33% CHF 0.59% 0.04% 0.04% -0.16% 0.56% 0.10% 0.33% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Domestically, Japan’s Overall Household Spending data for March has come in better than projected. The Overall Household Spending, a key measure of consumer spending, rose at a robust pace of 2.1% year-on-year compared to estimates of 0.2%. In February, the consumer spending measure declined by 0.5%. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

17:06 China's Copper ore imports at record level – Commerzbank
Trade data from China also supports the impression of continued strong demand for Copper in the most important market for the metal, which is essential for electrification, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

Trade data from China also supports the impression of continued strong demand for Copper in the most important market for the metal, which is essential for electrification, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Chile's largest mine producer increases its output "Copper imports may have fallen in comparison to March and the previous year. However, Copper ore imports rose to a record level. Accordingly, Chinese Copper production continues to show signs of expansion. This indicates that companies in China are increasingly covering their Copper needs with domestic production, which in turn also favours subdued Copper imports in the coming months." "The strong Copper ore imports are interesting insofar as there have recently been signs of a shortage of ore, as can be seen from the low treatments and refining charges, among other things. The strong Chinese imports of the raw material could lead to a shortage outside the country and consequently to a reduction in metal production there, which in turn would strengthen China's dominance as a Copper producer." "This could pose a challenge for countries that want to become increasingly independent of China. However, the news that Chile's largest mine producer has recently been able to increase its output after falling short of expectations in recent years, partly due to operational problems, provides some relief in this respect."

16:59 Chinese central bank has been buying Gold for six months – Commerzbank
The Chinese central bank PBoC continued to buy Gold in April for the sixth month in a row, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The Chinese central bank PBoC continued to buy Gold in April for the sixth month in a row, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. PBoC Gold purchases are lower than in the previous month"The PBoC's Gold reserves rose by 70 thousand ounces, or just over 2 tons, month-on-month. This means that purchases were once again lower than in the previous month, when the PBoC bought just under 3 tons of Gold. In January and February, monthly purchases were still at 5 tons, in December at just over 10 tons." "Since the PBoC resumed its Gold purchases last November, these have totalled 970 thousand ounces or just over 30 tons. In the past, the PBoC had already bought such a quantity of Gold within a month, for example in November and December 2022. The current purchases are therefore not comparable with those of that time." "The decline in buying interest could be linked to the sharp rise in the Gold price. However, there may also have been unreported Gold purchases. For around three years, there has been a large discrepancy between the Gold purchases of central banks reported by the World Gold Council and the Gold purchases reported in the reserves of central banks."

16:54 EIA lowers forecast for US oil production – Commerzbank
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for US crude oil production downwards, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for US crude oil production downwards, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Decline in production may even start earlier"It now expects an increase of only 200 thousand barrels per day this year. The peak is expected to be reached in December at 13.7 million barrels per day. After that, production is expected to decline and reach 13.44 million barrels per day by the end of 2026. The sharp drop in prices is leaving visible traces." "The decline in production may even start earlier. This week, some shale oil companies have announced that they will reduce spending and drilling activities in the Permian Basin. The president of one of the companies, referring to the industry, spoke of a dramatic decline in business and a likely drop in oil production."

16:47 USD/CAD ticks higher to near 1.3920 as Canadian unemployment accelerates
The USD/CAD pair moves higher to near 1.3920 in Friday’s North American session after the release of the Canadian labor market data for April.

16:15 Canada Unemployment Rate rises to 6.9% in April vs. 6.8% expected
The Unemployment Rate in Canada edged higher to 6.9% in April from 6.7% in March, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. This reading came in above the market expectation of 6.8%.

16:04 Fed's Williams: Price stability is foundational for Fed
New York Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President John Williams said on Friday that price stability is foundational for the Fed, per Reuters.

15:30 Canada Participation Rate up to 65.3% in April from previous 65.2%
Canada Participation Rate up to 65.3% in April from previous 65.2%

15:30 Canada Unemployment Rate registered at 6.9% above expectations (6.8%) in April
Canada Unemployment Rate registered at 6.9% above expectations (6.8%) in April

15:30 Canada Net Change in Employment above forecasts (2.5K) in April: Actual (7.4K)
Canada Net Change in Employment above forecasts (2.5K) in April: Actual (7.4K)

15:08 Gold price with ups and downs, focus on upcoming trade talks – Commerzbank
The price of gold fell below $3,300 per troy ounce overnight, after it rose above the $3,400 mark on Tuesday, marking its highest level since reaching a record high two weeks earlier, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The price of gold fell below $3,300 per troy ounce overnight, after it rose above the $3,400 mark on Tuesday, marking its highest level since reaching a record high two weeks earlier, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. US and China trade talks are due this weekend"The fall was triggered by news indicating movement in the trade conflict. The first talks between high-ranking representatives of the US and China are due to take place in Switzerland this weekend. In addition, a trade agreement between the US and the UK was announced on Thursday." "The negative price reaction shows how strongly gold was previously driven up by the tariff conflict triggered by US President Trump and what could be expected if agreements are reached that lead to a reduction or withdrawal of tariffs. This is particularly true in the case of an agreement between the US and China." "The fact that Fed Chairman Powell put a damper on hopes of early interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve at the press conference following the Fed meeting on Wednesday is also likely to have caused headwinds for gold. Criticism of Powell from US President Trump was not long in coming, whereupon gold briefly rallied yesterday."

15:01 EUR entering NA session with modest gain – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is entering Friday’s NA session with a modest 0.2% gain, still trading below 1.13 but seeing a solid recovery from a short lived decline to 1.12, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Euro (EUR) is entering Friday’s NA session with a modest 0.2% gain, still trading below 1.13 but seeing a solid recovery from a short lived decline to 1.12, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. ECB comments remain dovish "Economic data releases have been limited, and ECB commentary has remained broadly dovish with Governing Council member Rehn endorsing cuts in June." "Developments on trade have been disappointing, as the general tone of reporting has focused on the EU’s preparations for retaliatory measures and German Chancellor Merz cautioning President Trump against negotiations with individual member states, rather than the EU as a whole."

15:01 Mexico Consumer Confidence down to 45.5 in April from previous 64.1
Mexico Consumer Confidence down to 45.5 in April from previous 64.1

15:01 Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a fell from previous 46 to 45.3 in April
Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a fell from previous 46 to 45.3 in April

15:00 Brazil IPCA Inflation fell from previous 0.56% to 0.43% in April
Brazil IPCA Inflation fell from previous 0.56% to 0.43% in April

15:00 USD/CNH: Downward momentum is slowing rapidly – UOB Group
Room for US Dollar (USD) to continue to rise against the Chinese Yuan (CNH), but it does not appear to have enough momentum to break above 7.2600.

Room for US Dollar (USD) to continue to rise against the Chinese Yuan (CNH), but it does not appear to have enough momentum to break above 7.2600. In the longer run, downward momentum is slowing rapidly; a breach of 7.2600 would mean that USD is likely to trade in a range instead of declining, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD doesn't have enough momentum to break above 7.260024-HOUR VIEW: "We expected USD to 'trade between 7.2070 and 7.2370' yesterday. Instead of trading in a range, USD rose to 7.2463. Despite the advance, upward momentum has not increased significantly. However, there is room for USD to continue to rise today, but it does not appear to have enough momentum to break above the strong resistance at 7.2600. Support is at 7.2300; a breach of 7.2180 would indicate that USD is not rising further." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from 06 May (when USD was at 7.2150), wherein 'although a further decline remains possible, the deeply oversold short-term conditions suggest that the USD may range-trade for a few days before resuming its decline.' Since then, USD has not been able to make any headway on the downside. Downward momentum is slowing rapidly, and a breach of 7.2600 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that USD is likely to trade in a range instead of declining."

14:59 Fed's Kugler: Makes sense to maintain moderately restrictive policy rate
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Adriana Kugler told Bloomber TV on Friday that the policy rate is currently moderately restrictive and added that it makes sense to maintain it.

14:56 China also imported large quantities of crude oil in April – Commerzbank
Chinese refineries continued to import large quantities of crude oil in April, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Chinese refineries continued to import large quantities of crude oil in April, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. US places independent refineries from China on the sanctions list"According to data from the customs authority, imports totalled 11.7 million barrels per day. Although this was slightly less than in the very strong preceding month, it was 7.5% more than last year. Refineries are likely to have taken advantage of the significant drop in prices in April to build up stocks." "According to Vortexa, the stock build-up in April is likely to have been more than 1 million barrels per day. It is therefore unlikely that imports will be able to maintain the high level of the last two months. According to Vortexa estimates, oil imports from Iran have once again been high at 1.5 million barrels per day." "Here, too, a decline is likely after the US government recently placed some independent refineries from China on the sanctions list due to their purchases of Iranian oil. Another refinery was added yesterday."

14:53 CAD is flat and consolidating post-Fed losses – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is entering Friday’s NA session trading flat vs. the US Dollar (USD) as it consolidates this week’s post-Fed losses.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is entering Friday’s NA session trading flat vs. the US Dollar (USD) as it consolidates this week’s post-Fed losses. Yield spreads have widened this week, moving against the CAD as markets have reassessed the outlook for central bank policy and softened their expectations for Fed easing, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Markets are focusing on Friday’s domestic jobs reportThursday’s release of the BoC’s Financial Stability Report was not market-moving but did highlight significant risks including trade war-related challenges for Canadian banks and consumers, concerns about the upcoming round of mortgage renewals in a higher rate environment, and the larger presence of hedge funds in the Canadian government bond market. "For now, markets are focusing on Friday’s domestic jobs report, with expectations of a 5K jobs gain and a modest rise in the unemployment rate. USD/CAD finally broke out of its 1.3750-1.3900 range that had held since mid-April but the follow through has been limited with additional resistance observed, as expected, in the mid-1.39s around the 61.8% retracement of the September-February rally." "Momentum is neutral with the RSI hovering just below 50. Should gains continue, we would expect further resistance at the psychologically important 1.40 level. Near-term support is now expected between 1.3880 and 1.3850."

14:50 Kazakhstan continues to produce too much oil – Commerzbank
Kazakhstan continues to produce significantly more oil than agreed and apparently has no plans to reduce production in May, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Kazakhstan continues to produce significantly more oil than agreed and apparently has no plans to reduce production in May, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Saudi Arabia may push for a strong increase in oil production"According to the Kazakh Energy Ministry, daily production, including condensates, is likely to amount to 277 thousand tons in May, the same level as in April. In March, production amounted to 260 thousand tons per day. The production reported for April and May corresponds to a good 2 million barrels per day." "Condensates account for around 260 thousand barrels per day, meaning that crude oil production is likely to be around 1.75 million barrels per day. The ceiling agreed for May would therefore be exceeded by around 300 thousand barrels per day if the compensatory cuts are not taken into account." "This increases the risk that Saudi Arabia will also push for a strong increase in oil production in July. The downside risks for oil prices are therefore increasing further."

14:48 USD soft, fading portion of post-Fed gains into US/China trade talks – Scotiabank
G10 FX performance is varied heading into Friday’s NA session as most currencies claw back a portion of this week’s post-Fed losses against the US Dollar (USD).

G10 FX performance is varied heading into Friday’s NA session as most currencies claw back a portion of this week’s post-Fed losses against the US Dollar (USD). JPY, SEK, and NOK are outperforming, with GBP, EUR, and MXN eking out modest gains as the CAD trades flat while the AUD and CHF show modest losses. NZD is the sole underperformer, down 0.3% vs. the USD. The focus remains on trade, as market participants look to this weekend’s US/China trade talks and the scheduled meeting between US Treasury Secretary Bessent and China Vice Premier He Lifeng, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD mixed vs. G10 as markets eye US/ China trade talks this weekend"Initial reports are hinting to the possibility of a tariff reduction, below 60%, as a first step. Overnight releases included China’s trade figures for March, revealing a larger than expected trade balance (USD terms) driven by much stronger than expected export growth. The broader market’s tone is tentative into the end of the week as US equity futures consolidate just below their recent highs, at levels roughly corresponding to those observed in early April when US tariffs were initially announced." "Global equity indices are buoyant with broad gains across Asian and European indices, and market participants are cheering a fresh record high in the German DAX as it clears its prior high from March. US Treasury yields have climbed somewhat from their prior congestion levels with the 10Y pushing toward 4.40% and the 2Y reaching its 50 day MA (~3.87%) for the first time since February. Oil prices are providing further confirmation to the market’s more constructive tone with WTI extending its recovery from this week’s OPEC-driven decline and pushing back above $60/bbl." "Meanwhile, copper is steady and attempting to stabilize at the lower end of its three week range while gold also looks to be consolidating this week’s post-Fed pullback. Friday’s US data calendar is empty, leaving the focus squarely centered on Fedspeak as well as any headline risk out of the US administration. Friday’s Fed speakers include BoG member Barr (voting), whose hawkish comments have already hit the newswires, as well as Kugler (BoG/voting), Williams (NY/voting), Barkin (Richmond/non-voting), and Goolsbee (Chicago/voting)."

14:35 US Pres. Trump: 80% tariff on China seems right
In a post published on Truth Social on Friday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said 80% tariffs on Chinese goods "seems right."

14:35 AUD/USD rises above 0.6400 as US Dollar falls back, US-China trade talks eyed
The AUD/USD pair recovers initial losses and rises above the key level of 0.6400 during European trading hours on Friday.

14:32 USD/JPY might not be able to break above 146.55 – UOB Group
Scope for US Dollar (USD) to rise further vs Japanese Yen (JPY); overbought conditions suggest any advance might not be able to break above 146.55.

Scope for US Dollar (USD) to rise further vs Japanese Yen (JPY); overbought conditions suggest any advance might not be able to break above 146.55. In the longer run, rally has gained momentum, but USD must first break clearly above 146.55 before a further sustained rise is likely, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Rally has gained momentum24-HOUR VIEW: "When USD was trading at 143.80 in the early Asian trade yesterday, we noted that “the firmer underlying tone indicates the bias for USD is tilted to the upside today, with scope for a test of 144.30.” Instead of testing 144.30, USD surged past this level and reached 146.17 in late NY trade. The sharp rally appears to be overextended, but there is scope for USD to rise further. Given the deeply overbought conditions, any advance might not be able to break clearly above the major resistance at 146.55. Support is at 145.30, followed by 144.80." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted yesterday (07 May, spot at 143.80) that “while we maintain our consolidation view, moderating price swings point to a tighter range of 142.20/145.30 in the near term.” We did not expect USD to lift off and soared to 146.17. The sharp rally has gained momentum, but USD must break and hold above 146.55 before a further sustained rise is likely. Looking ahead, above 146.55, there is another strong resistance at 147.10. On the downside, any pullback is likely to hold above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 143.90."

14:30 India FX Reserves, USD down to $686.06B in April 28 from previous $688.13B
India FX Reserves, USD down to $686.06B in April 28 from previous $688.13B

14:28 US Dollar Index hits near a month high before reversing ahead of US-China trade talks
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is quickly reversing course this Friday ahead of the United States (US) trade talks with China in Switzerland over the weekend.

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The euphoria over the US-UK trade deal is quickly fading. The US Dollar Index looks set to test a vital earlier resistance at 100.22 now for support. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is quickly reversing course this Friday ahead of the United States (US) trade talks with China in Switzerland over the weekend. The DXY index trades near 100.45 at the time of writing after hitting a near-a-month high of 100.86 earlier in the day. The euphoria over the United Kingdom (UK) trade deal with the US is being written off as not a trade deal at all. The US gets to keep its 10% tariffs on UK goods while getting better and easier access to the UK consumer markets. It was not at all a comprehensive and all-around trade deal that US President Donald Trump promised in the run-up to the announcement. Such a poor deal is being brokered with one of the smaller countries in terms of exposure to the US, and it sets the scene for trade talks this weekend with China not to go that smoothly. Although President Trump, according to sources, said tariffs could drop as low as 50% if China cooperates this weekend, it rather looks as if the US is not the strongest party sitting at the negotiating table, Bloomberg reports. Daily digest market movers: Fed takes over agenda this FridayAs already mentioned, China and the US will meet in Switzerland for trade talks over the weekend. However, no trade deal would be discussed, but only defusing the situation. Besides that, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has reiterated several times this week that trade talks can only take place if the US unilaterally drops its tariffs. A slew of Fed speakers are lined up to speak this Friday:At 12:30 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler and New York Fed President John Williams deliver a speech about employment at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025 in Iceland.At 14:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President and CEO Austan Goolsbee shares opening remarks at the Fed Listens event, Perspectives from the Midwest, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.At 15:30 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller participates in a panel discussion about monetary policy research at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference in Stanford.At 22:45 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem participate in a panel discussion about productivity dynamics at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference in Stanford.Equities are in the green on Friday, though not massively. European indices are up 0.5% on average. US Futures are flat to marginally higher, less than 0.5%.The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June’s meeting at 17.1%. Further ahead, the July 30 decision sees odds for rates being lower than current levels at 63.2%.The US 10-year yields trade around 4.37%, edging higher again after the mid-week dip. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Is this really that good? The US Dollar Index (DXY) has broken through substantial resistance at 100.22 and is starting to look bullish. However, there are a few questions, as the first trade deal after the ‘Liberation Day’ still sees US tariffs in place. This means elevated prices for US consumers who want to buy specific UK goods, which could still fuel a stagflationary scenario. On the upside, the DXY’s first resistance comes in at 101.90, which acted as a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024. In case Dollar bulls push the DXY even higher, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 102.47 comes into play. On the other hand, the previous resistance at 100.22 should now act as support. The 97.73 support could quickly be tested on any substantial bearish headline. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

14:25 Mexican Peso holds recent gains as traders await Consumer Confidence data and trade talks outcome
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is trading broadly flat against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s European session, as attention turns to upcoming Mexican Consumer Confidence data and a series of Federal Reserve (Fed) speeches, as traders head towards the weekend focusing on the US-China trade discussions to b

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Mexican Peso holds onto recent gains ahead of April’s Consumer Confidence data, a key gauge of domestic sentiment that could influence Banxico’s next move.Optimism over US-China trade talks due on Saturday continues to drive sentiment, indirectly supporting the Peso and other emerging market currencies.USD/MXN remains vulnerable to Fed policy signals ahead of Banxico’s upcoming rate decision, with divergence likely to shape near-term direction for the pair.The Mexican Peso (MXN) is trading broadly flat against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s European session, as attention turns to upcoming Mexican Consumer Confidence data and a series of Federal Reserve (Fed) speeches, as traders head towards the weekend focusing on the US-China trade discussions to be held on Saturday.At the time of writing, USD/MXN is hovering near 19.51, down 0.03%, with further moves likely driven by sentiment shifts around Fed policy signals, domestic economic data, and global trade developments.Mexican Peso awaits Consumer Confidence dataAt 12:00 GMT, Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) will release April’s Consumer Confidence figures. The previous reading stood at 46. This index reflects households’ views on the economy, job prospects, and future financial conditions. A stronger reading signals increased optimism and potentially higher domestic spending, which would support the Peso. Conversely, a weaker print may signal economic unease, adding pressure to the currency.Fed speakers pose an additional threat to the Mexican PesoAnother major driver for USD/MXN is the interest rate differential and policy divergence between Banxico and the Federal Reserve. With central banks globally still focused on curbing inflation, markets are closely watching a series of speeches today from Fed officials after their decision to leave US interest rates stable on Wednesday.The USD/MXN pair is likely to be driven by a packed schedule of Federal Reserve speakers on Friday, with key voting members, including Governors Adriana Kugler, Lisa Cook, and Christopher Waller, delivering remarks that could influence expectations for US monetary policy. Markets will be particularly sensitive to any hawkish signals amid ongoing uncertainty about the Fed’s next move. The speeches by known hawks like Kugler and Musalem may tilt sentiment toward a stronger US Dollar (USD) if they reinforce the case for holding rates higher for longer. Meanwhile, multiple appearances at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference raise the chance of coordinated or reinforcing messages on inflation and rate strategy.Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN fundamental driversOver the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer will meet with Chinese officials in Switzerland. President Trump’s remarks that he “could lower tariffs on China if talks go well” on Thursday, following the announcement of the US-UK trade deal, have improved market sentiment, offering support to the Peso and other emerging market currencies by boosting appetite for risk.As an Emerging Market (EM) currency, the Peso is particularly sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment and heavily reliant on exports to the US, which account for roughly 80% of Mexico’s total exports. Recent US tariff announcements on aluminium, steel, and autos – as well as the potential for additional levies outside the USMCA – have raised concerns about Mexico’s growth outlook and added to economic uncertainty.The Banxico is expected to cut rates by between 25 and 50 basis points (bps) at its next meeting on May 15. Mexico’s April inflation report, released on Thursday, showed price growth accelerating to 3.93% YoY, above the 3.90% forecast. Core inflation rose 0.49% MoM, up from 0.43% in March and exceeding expectations of 0.47%.The upside surprise in both headline and core figures signals persistent underlying price pressures. Still, as inflation remains within the central bank’s target range of between 2% and 4%, markets widely expect the Banxico to cut rates next week. USD/MXN technical setup: Bearish pressure persists below 19.600USD/MXN remains under pressure, trading just above key support at 19.50, with the broader trend still pointing lower. The pair is struggling to reclaim the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.59, which continues to act as dynamic resistance. Price action remains capped by a descending trendline from the April decline, reinforcing bearish momentum. For bulls to gain traction, a move above the 10-day SMA and a break above the 19.60 psychological level may provide the opportunity for USD/MXN to continue toward the May high at around 19.78.Meanwhile, a move below 19.50 and a daily close below the April low of 19.47 could expose further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.35 suggests bearish momentum without being oversold, indicating that there’s still room for sellers to stay in control unless a fundamental catalyst triggers a reversal.USD/MXN daily chart
Economic Indicator Consumer Confidence s.a The Consumer Confidence released by INEGI is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence indicates economic expansion while a low level points to a downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Mexican Peso, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Next release: Fri May 09, 2025 12:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: - Previous: 46 Source: National Institute of Statistics and Geography of Mexico

14:20 USD/JPY: Rebound meets first resistance – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) short covering gathered pace vs. safe haven proxies. USDJPY was last at 145.30 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

US Dollar (USD) short covering gathered pace vs. safe haven proxies. USDJPY was last at 145.30 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact"The recent US-UK deal and the upcoming US-China talks over the weekend further added momentum to the tariff de-escalation narrative. In addition, higher than expected USD/CNY fix for a handful of sessions this week further dampened the USDAsia selloff momentum and provided a bid tone for most USD-Asia, including USD/JPY.""The recent FOMC outcome (no rush to cut) further provided a setup for unwinding USD shorts. On data release this morning, lower than expected cash earnings also dimmed market enthusiasm for BoJ normalisation, from a timing perspective." "Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. Immediate resistance at 146.35 (50 DMA), 147.15 (38.2% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low). Support at 145.40, 142.5 (23.6% fibo)."

14:15 Gold rally stalls below $3500 mark – Société Générale
Gold faces consolidation after stalling near $3500, with a lower high at $3435 and weakening momentum suggesting a temporary pause in the uptrend, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

Gold faces consolidation after stalling near $3500, with a lower high at $3435 and weakening momentum suggesting a temporary pause in the uptrend, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Lower high at $3435 signals pause in momentum"Gold up move has faced interim resistance near $3500 last month and formation of a lower high at $3435 denotes a pause is developing. Daily MACD has pulled back after reaching multi-month high levels and has dipped below its trigger line highlighting receding upward momentum." "A brief consolidation can’t be ruled out. A move beyond $3435 will be crucial for confirming next leg of uptrend. Recent pivot low of $3200 and projection at $3140 are near term supports."

13:57 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Strengthens after Falling wedge breakout
The USD/CAD pair holds onto gains made on Thursday around 1.3920 during European trading hours on Friday. The Loonie pair performs strongly as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on multiple tailwinds.

13:53 NZD/USD might not be able to break clearly below 0.5870 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could weaken further against US Dollar (USD), but it might not be able to break clearly below 0.5870. In the longer run, bias for NZD is tilted to the downside toward 0.5870, potentially reaching 0.5835, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could weaken further against US Dollar (USD), but it might not be able to break clearly below 0.5870. In the longer run, bias for NZD is tilted to the downside toward 0.5870, potentially reaching 0.5835, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Bias for NZD is tilted to the downside toward 0.587024-HOUR VIEW: "After NZD dropped sharply to 0.5936 two days ago, we indicated that 'the sharp drop appears to be overdone, but NZD could decline to 0.5920 before stabilisation is likely.' We also indicated that 'the major support at 0.5890 is unlikely to come into view.' NZD fell more than expected to 0.5901, and the corresponding increase in momentum suggests further weakness today. However, given that conditions are already oversold, NZD might not be able to break clearly below 0.5870. Resistance levels are at 0.5920 and 0.5940." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (08 May, spot at 0.5945), we indicated that NZD 'is still range-trading, likely between 0.5890 and 0.6030.' We did not expect the subsequent drop to 0.5901. There has been a slight increase in momentum, indicating the bias for NZD is tilted to the downside toward 0.5870, potentially reaching 0.5835. The downward bias will remain intact provided that the ‘strong resistance’ level, currently at 0.5960 is not breached."

13:34 DXY: Short squeeze on the cards – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) short squeeze gained traction and broadened against more currencies from safe haven to procyclical FX. MYR, Gold, JPY and THB led losses.

US Dollar (USD) short squeeze gained traction and broadened against more currencies from safe haven to procyclical FX. MYR, Gold, JPY and THB led losses. While US reached a trade deal with UK, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick did say that trade deals with South Korea and Japan could take significantly more time, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Risks remain somewhat skewed to the upside"This may also dampen enthusiasm about US trade talks with China (Vice Premier He Lifeng to meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade representative Jamieson Greer) in Switzerland this weekend) and other Asian nations (in coming weeks). This morning, Bernama news reported that Malaysia's bid to coordinate a regional response to US tariffs with ASEAN as a bloc had been rejected by the US." "While recent developments on de-escalation may be positive at the headline level, it may not be perceived as positive when it comes to the details. Alongside higher than expected USD/CNY fix for a handful of sessions this week and the recent FOMC outcome (no hurry to cut), these underwhelming factors may temporarily add to broad weakness in Asian currencies, including JPY, MYR and KRW while USD rebounds from troughs. DXY rose, in line with our caution." "Last at 100.45 levels. Daily momentum remains bullish while RSI rose. Risks remain somewhat skewed to the upside. Resistance at 100.80 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough), 101.40 and 102 (50 DMA). Support at 99.60 (21 DMA), 98.90 levels."

13:33 Fed's Barkin: Watching consumers most closely
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday that they are watching the consumer activity most closely because that's the biggest part of the economy, per Reuters.

13:26 AUD/USD can drop below 0.6370 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) could drop below 0.6370 against the US Dollar (USD) but might not be able to maintain a foothold below this level. In the longer run, AUD must break and hold below 0.6370 before a move to 0.6330 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) could drop below 0.6370 against the US Dollar (USD) but might not be able to maintain a foothold below this level. In the longer run, AUD must break and hold below 0.6370 before a move to 0.6330 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Below 0.6370, a move to 0.6330 can be expected24-HOUR VIEW: "AUD fell sharply on Tuesday. Yesterday, Wednesday, we indicated that 'the decline appears overextended, and rather than sustaining its downward momentum, AUD is more likely to trade in a lower range of 0.6400/0.6470.' AUD then traded between 0.6396 and 0.6464. Downward momentum is building, and today, we expect AUD to weaken toward 0.6370. A break below this level is not ruled out, but oversold conditions indicate that AUD might not be able to maintain a foothold below this level. The next support at 0.6330 is unlikely to come under threat. Resistance levels are at 0.6420 and 0.6440." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted yesterday (08 May, spot at 0.6430) that AUD 'appears to have entered a consolidation phase, and for the time being, it is likely to trade between 0.6370 and 0.6515.' AUD then fell to 0.6396, closing at 0.6401, lower by 0.37%. The slight increase in momentum is not enough to suggest a sustained decline just yet. AUD must break and hold below 0.6370 before a move to 0.6330 can be expected. The likelihood of AUD breaking clearly below 0.6370 will remain intact as long as 0.6460 is not breached in the next few days."

13:21 CNY: Hardly any signs of slowdown in exports – Commerzbank
In April, Chinese exports rose by 8.1% year-on-year to reach USD 315.7 billion, marking the highest level ever recorded for the month of April, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

In April, Chinese exports rose by 8.1% year-on-year to reach USD 315.7 billion, marking the highest level ever recorded for the month of April, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Depreciation of the CNY unlikely in the coming months"Hence, there are no real signs of a slowdown due to the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US, which increased to 145% in April. While exports to the US fell by 21% year-on-year, suggesting that exporting directly to the US has become significantly more difficult. Exports to other regions of the world continued to rise significantly. Notably, exports to ASEAN countries increased by 20.8%. Exports to the EU also rose by 8.3% compared to April 2024.""It will certainly take a few more months to get a clearer picture of the impact of US tariffs on Chinese exports. For now, though, the effects appear to be much smaller than expected. The persistently high foreign trade surplus should therefore continue to support the currency. Stable export growth makes a significant depreciation of the CNY less likely in the coming months."

13:19 GBP/USD: Likely to decline further – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to decline further, potentially testing the support at 1.3190. In the longer run, scope for GBP to weaken to 1.3150; currently it is unclear whether GBP can break clearly below this level, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to decline further, potentially testing the support at 1.3190. In the longer run, scope for GBP to weaken to 1.3150; currently it is unclear whether GBP can break clearly below this level, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Scope for GBP to weaken to 1.315024-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we indicated that 'provided that GBP remains below 1.3335, it could edge lower to 1.3265.' We were incorrect, as GBP popped to a high of 1.3355 before dropping sharply to 1.3238 in the late NY session. Given the rapid increase in momentum, GBP is likely to decline further, potentially testing the support at 1.3190. The major support at 1.3150 is likely out of reach. To keep the momentum going, any intraday recovery must not break above 1.3285 (minor resistance is at 1.3260)." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We indicated two days ago (07 May, spot at 1.3350) that 'The current price movements are part of a 1.3240/1.3450 range-trading phase.' Yesterday, GBP fell to a low of 1.3238 and it continued to decline in early Asian trade today. While there has been no significant increase in downward momentum, there is scope for GBP to weaken to 1.3150. Currently, it is unclear whether GBP can break clearly below this level. The downside risk will remain intact as long as 1.3320 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached."

13:15 EUR/USD bounces back amid uncertainty over upcoming US-China trade talks
EUR/USD rebounds to near 1.1260 during European trading hours on Friday from over a three-week low around 1.1200 earlier in the day. The major currency pair bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) retraces amid caution ahead of the trade talks between the United States (US) and China due on Saturday.

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The major currency pair bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) retraces amid caution ahead of the trade talks between the United States (US) and China due on Saturday.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, corrects to near 100.40 from almost a month high of 100.85 posted earlier in the day. Investors will pay close attention to the US-China trade discussions in Switzerland on Saturday. China is the second largest market of US imports after Mexico, according to the US COMTRADE database on international trade. Additionally, the trade war between Washington and Beijing is the key trigger behind downward revisions in global economic growth, given the labor cost competitive advantage of China.The White House has expressed confidence that the tariff war between the US and China will de-escalate after the meeting. “De-escalation and bringing rates down are the goal for China,” US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday. Lutnick also demonstrated confidence that Washington will “roll out more deals over the next month”. His comments came after the announcement of the US-United Kingdom (UK) trade deal.Meanwhile, The New York Post reported that US President Donald Trump could lower tariffs on China to the range between 50% and 54% as early as next week. However, White House spokesperson Kush Desai has not confirmed.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains as Euro outperformsThe recovery move in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by the Euro’s (EUR) outperformance against its peers on Friday. The Euro advances despite European Central Bank (ECB) officials showing confidence that inflation is on track to return to the central bank’s target of 2%, and concerns over the economic outlook. “Disinflation is on track and the growth outlook is weakening, in case this is going to be confirmed in our June forecast, then in my view in order to achieve our 2% symmetric inflation target over the medium term, the right reaction in monetary policy is to cut rates,” ECB policymaker and Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn said during European trading hours, Bloomberg reported. Generally, the Euro underperforms when ECB officials favor monetary policy expansion.Meanwhile, investors await the response from the US regarding the tariff countermeasures announced by the European Union (EU) Commission on Thursday. During European trading hours, ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said that “Eurozone inflation depends on EU retaliation to the US.”On Thursday, the European Commission launched a public consultation paper that contains possible countermeasures in response to US tariffs. The paper showed countermeasures on up to €95 billion of US imports if trade talks fail to deliver a satisfactory result for the bloc, which is a little short of €100 billion reported by Bloomberg on Tuesday.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD finds support near 20-day EMAEUR/USD continues to find bids near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.1250.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating that the bullish momentum is concluded for now. However, the upside bias still prevails.Looking up, the psychological level of 1.1500 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the April 3 high of 1.1145 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

13:07 Fed's Barr: Policy in a good position to adjust as conditions unfold
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said on Friday that the monetary policy is in a good position to adjust as conditions unfold, per Reuters.

13:04 Portugal Global Trade Balance: €-6.216B (March) vs €-6.653B
Portugal Global Trade Balance: €-6.216B (March) vs €-6.653B

12:55 Gold rebounds as Dollar retreats ahead of US-China trade talks this weekend
Gold (XAU/USD) pops just shy of 1% on Friday and heads back above $3,325 at the time of writing. The precious metal’s price is edging higher as markets call the trade deal announced on Thursday between the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) a ‘nothingburger’.

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The US-UK trade agreement is for cheering markets, not a ‘full and comprehensive’ trade deal as President Trump announced. Gold sees safe-haven inflow ahead of the high-stakes China-US meeting over the weekend. Gold (XAU/USD) pops just shy of 1% on Friday and heads back above $3,325 at the time of writing. The precious metal’s price is edging higher as markets call the trade deal announced on Thursday between the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) a ‘nothingburger’. The US-UK trade deal gives the US better market access and a faster customs process for exports to Britain, but falls short of a "full and comprehensive" agreement. At the same time, 10% tariffs will remain in place and the UK will be forced to take $10 billion worth of orders with Boeing, Bloomberg reports. The fact that this initial trade deal for the US is so ill-conceived raises big questions and uncertainties just ahead of the China-US summit that is set to take place in Switzerland over the weekend. In the run-up to that meeting, the Chinese Minister of Commerce has again expressed its demands that tariffs must be unwound before trade talks can occur. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump hinted overnight that people should head out and buy stocks now, Reuters reports. Daily digest market movers: That is not a trade deal at allPresident Trump also said overnight that he believed that the trade talks this weekend with China would result in tangible progress. The president said he would consider lowering the 145% tariff he has imposed on many Chinese goods if the discussions went well. Beijing, meanwhile, reiterated its calls for the US to cancel unilateral duties on China, Bloomberg reports. People familiar with preparations for the talks, which are due to begin in Geneva on Saturday, led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, say the US side has set a target of reducing tariffs below 60% as a first step that they feel China may be prepared to match. Progress in two days of scheduled discussions could see those cuts being implemented as soon as next week, they said, Bloomberg reports. "Buying Gold on dips is still in vogue, which is so far limiting the downside moves despite safe-haven demand drying up to a degree on the US-UK trade deal," KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer said, Reuters reports. Gold Price Technical Analysis: It will all end in tearsThe stakes just got high for this weekend, after President Trump told people to go out and buy stocks when talking about the US-UK trade deal, as it would be the first of many. I'm unsure if the suggestion was linked to the US-China negotiations this weekend, though Trump is clearly seizing this one-deal event as a jumping board to get momentum going. However, questions all around should support the safe haven demand due to growing uncertainty. First hurdle on the upside this Friday comes in at the daily Pivot Point at $3,336. Should more follow-through appear later in the day, look for the intraday R1 resistance at $3,384. The R2 resistance upside target at $3,462 might be a bit too far for today’s price action. On the downside, the S1 support at $3,258 is the first line of defence. The watchdog level, which is near $3,245, is a much stronger floor from a technical standpoint. In case it does break under pressure, $3,210, which is the S2 support, should come into play. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

12:52 JPY: Wages disappoint again – Commerzbank
Data on wage developments in March was published in Japan this morning, and was rather disappointing overall once again, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

Data on wage developments in March was published in Japan this morning, and was rather disappointing overall once again, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Employees still have less disposable income than before"Despite wage agreements with trade unions being above 5% for the past two years, income growth remains well below this level. At 2.1% year-on-year, growth is still almost twice the pre-pandemic rate. However, due to the current high inflation rate, employees still have less disposable income than before. Consequently, the real wage index fell by a further 2.1% in March.""This persistently disappointing development in real wages makes sustained inflationary pressure generated by domestic demand unlikely. We therefore continue to assume that inflation will fall again in the coming months, dropping below the Bank of Japan's 2% target in structural terms. Even though we still anticipate that the Bank of Japan will want to raise interest rates in the coming months, it is currently increasingly unclear whether this will be possible." "Nevertheless, the market is not currently pricing in another rate hike. In the coming weeks, the USD/JPY exchange rate is likely to be driven more by tariff negotiations with the US than by the interest rate differential."

12:48 GBP: Bullish mood can continue – ING
The Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthened yesterday as the Bank of England sent some hawkish signals while cutting rates by 25bp. The announcement of the UK-US trade deal later in the day added some support to the pound, but that was short-lived, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes

The Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthened yesterday as the Bank of England sent some hawkish signals while cutting rates by 25bp. The announcement of the UK-US trade deal later in the day added some support to the pound, but that was short-lived, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notesUK-US trade deal adds support to GBP"The deal had already been largely priced in, and the implications for the UK economy are not significant. That said, the UK has now signed two trade deals in quick succession (with India and the US), and that is keeping markets hopeful on trade talks with the EU – which would have much more meaningful implications for the UK, and can lend a hand to troubled British finances.""When it comes to the BoE, the hawkish surprises came both from the vote split and the details in the statement. There were four dissenters to the 25bp decision, two voting for a 50bp reduction and two for a hold. In the hawkish camp were Catherine Mann, a long-time hawk who had (very surprisingly) voted for a 50bp cut earlier this year, and most importantly, Huw Pill, the BoE’s Chief Economist. That resounded more with markets than the two 50bp cut votes, as the statement also seemed to lean on the cautious side. The guidance is unchanged, with further easing steps still set to be 'gradual and careful', and growth forecasts were not revised lower as some had expected." "The proximity to the 19 May EU-UK summit can keep markets on the bearish side of EUR/GBP. Calmer risk sentiment and positioning imbalances (EUR is more overbought than GBP) should also keep the pair pressured. A test of the big 0.840 support (where 100-day and 200-day moving averages converge) is a tangible possibility in the coming weeks."

12:44 USD: Plethora of Fed speakers to watch today – ING
It’s been a good second half of the week for the dollar, mostly thanks to positive trade news and a hawkish Federal Reserve.

It’s been a good second half of the week for the dollar, mostly thanks to positive trade news and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The next big catalyst for the dollar will be the outcome of initial US-China trade talks, but US equities have already drawn some support from US President Donald Trump’s more upbeat tone on upcoming negotiations with Beijing and the US-UK trade deal announced yesterday, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.US trade developments remain the single biggest driver for USD"The US data calendar only includes the Federal budget balance for April, but there are a few Fed speakers to watch. Two dovish-leaning members, Michael Barr and Christopher Waller, both speak today. Lately, Waller has stressed that tariff-led inflation should be temporary, and it will be interesting to see whether more neutral members endorse this view. None of the hawks are speaking today, and the overall message may be slightly dovish-leaning.""This week, the Fed sounded anything but dovish. Still, there's a risk that Chair Jerome Powell’s current stance is overly cautious given high uncertainty on tariffs – perhaps to reaffirm the Fed’s independence in the face of Trump’s easing calls. Single Fed speakers may show more openness to cutting rates and prevent the hawkish repricing in the USD OIS curve from going much further. Current pricing is for 68bp by year-end, with the first cut in September.""Anyway, US trade developments remain the single biggest driver for the dollar, and the consolidation of bullish USD momentum requires a constant flow of positive news on trade deals – especially with China. For this week, most of the positives from improved trade sentiment may already be factored into the dollar, which may fail to find more support today, especially if Fed speakers sound a bit more dovish than Powell."

12:40 EUR/USD: Any decline could be limited to a test of 1.1185 – UOB Group
Further Euro (EUR) weakness is not ruled out vs US Dollar (USD); oversold conditions suggest any decline could be limited to a test of 1.1185. In the longer run, c in EUR toward 1.1145, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Further Euro (EUR) weakness is not ruled out vs US Dollar (USD); oversold conditions suggest any decline could be limited to a test of 1.1185. In the longer run, c in EUR toward 1.1145, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Buildup in downward momentum indicates further decline24-HOUR VIEW: "When EUR was at 1.1310 in early Asian trade yesterday, we pointed out 'the bias for EUR is tilted to the downside.' However, we highlighted that 'as momentum is not strong, any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.1280.' EUR then dipped below 1.1280, rebounded, before plummeting to a low of 1.1210 in the NY session. While further weakness is not ruled out, oversold conditions suggest any decline could be limited to a test of 1.1185. The next support at 1.1145 is likely out of reach for now. Resistance is at 1.1245; a breach of 1.1270 would suggest the weakness has stabilised." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our latest narrative from Tuesday (06 May, spot at 1.1310), we highlighted that 'the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase, and we expect EUR to trade between 1.1225 and 1.1410 for now.' After trading sideways for a couple of days, EUR dropped below 1.1225 yesterday (low was 1.1210). The increase in downward momentum indicates further declines toward 1.1145. To maintain the buildup in momentum, EUR must remain below the ‘strong resistance’ level, currently at 1.1315."

12:31 USD: Much ado about little – Commerzbank
Yesterday afternoon, Donald Trump finally presented his first trade deal with the United Kingdom in the Oval Office. However, despite all the fanfare, it must be said that the substance was rather thin once again.

Yesterday afternoon, Donald Trump finally presented his first trade deal with the United Kingdom in the Oval Office. However, despite all the fanfare, it must be said that the substance was rather thin once again. There was much talk of the great opportunities that this deal offers both countries, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. US-UK trade deal is a warning sign"The US will probably gain preferential access to UK markets for ethanol and agricultural products, with beef being mentioned repeatedly. The size of these markets is estimated at USD 700 million for ethanol and USD 250 million for agricultural products. Taken together, this amounts to less than a billion US dollars — less than 0.5% of last year's US exports. In addition, a major UK airline has agreed to purchase USD 10 billion worth of aircraft from the US. At first glance, this sounds like a much bigger deal. However, the United Kingdom already purchased aerospace products worth USD 10 billion last year. Furthermore, no timeframe has been given for when this purchase volume is to be executed.""Meanwhile, the 10% reciprocal tariffs on UK exports to the US remain largely in place. With a few exceptions. The tariff on steel and aluminium will be set at zero. However, these two items together only accounted for 2% of UK exports to the US last year. Additionally, the UK will be permitted to continue importing aircraft turbines and parts into the US duty-free. This is likely to ensure that US aircraft manufacturers continue to have access to these products. Lastly, the UK will be permitted to import 100,000 cars per year into the US at the reduced tariff rate of 10%. Otherwise, a tariff rate of 25% applies to cars and car parts imported into the US.""The 10% tariff seems to represent a kind of lower limit for the US. Any other countries currently negotiating with the US cannot expect the tariffs to be abolished. Therefore, the effective tariff rate in the US, which was 2.4% last year, is likely to rise to at least 10%. Even in a best-case scenario. No major leaps forward should be expected in the upcoming deals. The US-UK deal contains only cosmetic changes. Negotiations with other countries, especially the EU and China, are likely to be much more challenging. Granting preferential access to the US for the UK's agricultural markets would contradict the WTO's 'most favoured nation' rule."

12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

12:20 EUR: Starting to look towards 1.10? – ING
For most of the past couple of weeks, EUR/USD buyers emerged vehemently in the 1.1250-1.1300 area. The break lower seen yesterday is telling.

For most of the past couple of weeks, EUR/USD buyers emerged vehemently in the 1.1250-1.1300 area. The break lower seen yesterday is telling. Markets have turned tentatively more optimistic on the dollar thanks to Trump’s reinforced hopes of upcoming trade agreements and seemingly greater attention to market indications, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/USD remains overvalued by 2% in the short term"This is still a far cry from the 'pragmatic' version of Trump that markets were pricing in as the baseline on Inauguration Day, but it’s enough to prevent growth and debt-related bearish bets on the dollar from mounting." "There are reasonable doubts about markets’ readiness to rebuild strategic dollar positions just yet, and time might be needed to reinstall market confidence in the dollar as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, EUR/USD remains overvalued by 2% in the short term according to our estimates, and more indications that Trump has switched to a market-pleasing mode can force more trimming of the risk premium.""Today, the eurozone calendar doesn’t offer much. We’ll see whether EUR/USD starts to form a new support floor at 1.1200; a break lower would signal a marked shift in sentiment on the pair and potentially pave the way for larger corrections, with 1.100 being the next big support."

12:00 Greece Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous -0.1% to 1.7% in March
Greece Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous -0.1% to 1.7% in March

12:00 Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY) down to 2.6% in April from previous 3.1%
Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY) down to 2.6% in April from previous 3.1%

12:00 Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY) declined to 2% in April from previous 2.4%
Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY) declined to 2% in April from previous 2.4%

11:46 Bailey speech: Our commitment to 2% inflation target is unwavering
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated on Friday that their commitment to the 2% inflation target is unwavering, per Reuters.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated on Friday that their commitment to the 2% inflation target is unwavering, per Reuters.Key takeaways"Good we have a diversity of views on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPS).""We will maintain a baseline projection, based on a staff proposal, one that a majority of the MPC agrees is a reasonable baseline.""We will use scenarios as vehicles for exploring risks around the baseline and accommodating differences of views on the committee.""Latest choice of BoE scenarios does not mean inflation risk skewed in one direction.""Scenarios do not imply a skew for path of monetary policy.""Behind a split vote is often a high degree of communality on the factors shaping the outlook.""Global economic environment is likely to continue to be challenging and less predictable than it was in the past."Market reactionThese comments failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction. At the time of press, GBP/USD was up 0.15% on the day at 1.3265.

11:30 ECB's Šimkus: Eurozone inflation depends on EU retaliation to the US
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Friday that “Eurozone inflation depends on EU retaliation to the US.”

11:20 Pound Sterling flattens against US Dollar as investors await US-China trade talks
The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers some intraday losses and flattens around 1.3250 against the US Dollar (USD) in European trading hours on Friday. The GBP/USD pair attracts bids as the US Dollar corrects slightly after a strong upside on Thursday.

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The GBP/USD pair attracts bids as the US Dollar corrects slightly after a strong upside on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, retraces to near 100.40 from an almost a month high of 100.75 posted on Thursday. The USD Index rose sharply the previous day after the announcement of a trade deal between the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK).A strong upside move in the US Dollar reflects that financial market participants have cheered the first trade deal by the White House under the leadership of US President Donald Trump since the ‘Liberation Day’. This has boosted investors’ confidence that tariffs announced by Trump are more of a “tactic” to have a dominant position while negotiating trade deals with other nations, and have eased fears of higher import duties derailing the economy.However, the materialistic impact of the US-UK trade deal is limited as Washington already enjoys a trade surplus against London. Therefore, the real boost for investors’ confidence in the US economy would increase if the trade war between Washington and China de-escalates after their meeting in Switzerland on Saturday.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have confirmed that they will meet their Chinese counterparts over the weekend, aiming to de-escalate the trade war.Ahead of the Sino-US trade discussions, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has also expressed confidence in improving trade relations between the world’s two largest powerhouses. “De-escalation with China is Bessent's goal in talks,” Lutnick said in an interview with CNBC on late Thursday.Meanwhile, a report from The New York Post has shown that US President Trump could lower tariffs on China to the range between 50% and 54% as early as next week. However, White House spokesperson Kush Desai has not confirmed so.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades lower against its peersThe Pound Sterling underperforms its peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), on Friday. The British currency has faced pressure since the announcement of the US-UK trade deal the previous day. Ahead of the deal announcement, the British currency was outperforming its peers after the Bank of England (BoE) reduced borrowing rates with a 7-2 vote split.The BoE lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%, as expected, marking the fourth rate cut in the current monetary expansion cycle. BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Catherine Mann and Chief Economist Huw Pill favored leaving interest rates unchanged, while investors expected all MPC members to vote for an interest rate reduction. Out of seven MPC members who supported monetary policy easing, two officials, Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor, backed a bigger reduction of 50 bps.Other factors from the monetary policy announcement, which fetched bids for the Pound Sterling, were the retention of a “gradual and careful” policy-easing approach and an upwardly revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for the current year. The BoE sees the economy expanding at a faster pace of 1%, up from 0.75% projected in the February meeting.Meanwhile, the US Dollar was also outperforming after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which the central bank left interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the third time in a row. The Fed guided that monetary policy adjustments would be appropriate only if officials get clarity on how new economic policies by US President Trump will shape the economic outlook.Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of stagflation risks in the face of tariffs announced by Trump. “Tariffs so far announced are significantly bigger-than-expected, and we will see higher inflation, and lower employment if large increases in tariffs as announced are sustained,” Powell said.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling finds cushion near 1.3200The Pound Sterling attracts bids near the three-week low of 1.3210 against the US Dollar on Friday. However, the outlook of the pair has turned uncertain due to the formation of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) chart pattern on the 4-hour timeframe after it revisited the three-year high around 1.3450. A breakdown of the H&S chart pattern leads to a bearish reversal, and its formation near a critical resistance increases its credibility.The Cable trades below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.3305, suggesting that the near-term trend is bearish.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems vulnerable around 40.00. Should a bearish momentum trigger if the RSI falls below the 40.00 level.On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3445 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the psychological level of 1.3000 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:01 Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) climbed from previous -2.7% to -1.8% in March
Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) climbed from previous -2.7% to -1.8% in March

11:01 Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.5%) in March
Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.5%) in March

10:54 ECB's Rehn: Disinflation is on track and the growth outlook is weakening
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn commented on the inflation and growth outlook on Friday.

10:54 Forex Today: Markets await comments from central bankers
Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 9:

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In the absence of high-tier data releases, market participants will pay close attention to comments from central bankers on Friday. In the early American session, Statistics Canada will publish April employment data. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.71% -0.04% 0.35% 0.84% 0.68% 0.78% 0.55% EUR -0.71% -0.47% -0.10% 0.39% 0.24% 0.34% 0.10% GBP 0.04% 0.47% 0.15% 0.86% 0.71% 0.81% 0.58% JPY -0.35% 0.10% -0.15% 0.49% 0.34% 0.51% 0.31% CAD -0.84% -0.39% -0.86% -0.49% -0.45% -0.05% -0.29% AUD -0.68% -0.24% -0.71% -0.34% 0.45% 0.09% -0.14% NZD -0.78% -0.34% -0.81% -0.51% 0.05% -0.09% -0.24% CHF -0.55% -0.10% -0.58% -0.31% 0.29% 0.14% 0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tone and the announcement of the UK-US trade deal boosted the USD on Thursday. After rising nearly 0.8% on the day, the USD Index continued to stretch higher and touched its strongest level since April 11 near 100.90 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Several Fed policymakers, including NY Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller, will be delivering speeches in the second half of the day. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade mixed in the European session on Friday after Wall Street's main indexes closed in positive territory on Thursday.The data from China showed early Friday that the trade surplus shrank to $96.18 billion in April from $102.64 billion in March. On a yearly basis, Exports rose by 9.3%, while Imports contracted by 0.2%. AUD/USD trades marginallyl higher on the day above 0.6400 to begin the European session.The Bank of England (BoE) announced on Thursday that it lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%, as widely anticipated. In the policy statement, the BoE reiterated that a gradual and careful approach to further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remains appropriate. While speaking at the post-meeting press conference, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey noted that the overall impact of tariffs on inflation remains uncertain. GBP/USD lost more than 0.3% on Thursday and continued to edge lower early Friday. At the time of press, the pair was trading slightly above 1.3250. USD/JPY preserved its bullish momentum and rose more than 1% on Thursday. The pair corrects lower early Friday but holds above 145.00.EUR/USD dropped to its weakest level in nearly a month below 1.1200 in the Asian session on Friday after closing in negative territory for two consecutive days. The pair stages a rebound and trades near 1.1250 in the European morning.Gold came under renewed bearish pressure on Thursday and dropped below $3,300. XAU/USD gains traction early Friday and trades near $3,330. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

10:46 AUD/JPY drops to near 93.00 as Japanese Yen rises following personal spending data
AUD/JPY retreats from its recent gains during European trading hours on Friday, hovering near the 93.10 level. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is strengthening, supported by domestic data showing a stronger-than-expected rise in personal spending for March—an encouraging sign for consumption.

10:16 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates mixed at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Friday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 96.17, with the EUR/INR pair rising from its previous close at 96.04.

10:01 EUR/GBP rises to near 0.8500, dovish ECB tone caps upside
EUR/GBP halts its four-day losing streak, trading around 0.8490 during early European hours on Friday.

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However, the pair’s upside may be capped as the Euro (EUR) remains under pressure amid growing expectations of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), possibly as early as the June meeting. While ECB officials remain optimistic that inflation will sustainably return to the 2% target by year-end, concerns over the Eurozone’s economic outlook persist.In trade developments, the European Commission has launched a public consultation outlining potential countermeasures in response to US tariffs. The proposal targets up to €95 billion worth of US imports should trade negotiations fail, just shy of the €100 billion estimate reported by Bloomberg on Tuesday.European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic stated on Wednesday that the Commission would soon announce measures to counterbalance the economic impact of US tariffs. “Tomorrow we will announce the next preparatory steps, both in the area of possible rebalancing measures, and also in areas important for further discussions,” he said. However, Sefcovic emphasized that the EU’s primary focus remains on securing a negotiated agreement with the US, albeit not at any cost.The EUR/GBP pair may also face pressure as the Pound Sterling (GBP) gains support following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a US-UK trade deal. While the agreement retains the 10% tariffs on British goods, it includes US procurement access and delays decisions on UK market access for US agriculture and beef, pointing to a modest initial scope.Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, in line with expectations. However, the central bank adopted a more hawkish tone, stating that policy support will be withdrawn gradually and rates will remain restrictive as long as needed to control inflation risks.In a surprise move, two policymakers voted to keep rates unchanged, signaling a cautious approach. As a result, investors have modestly revised their expectations, now pricing in around 59 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

10:00 Austria Industrial Production (YoY) down to 1.4% in February from previous 1.8%
Austria Industrial Production (YoY) down to 1.4% in February from previous 1.8%

09:32 Palladium price: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $980.03 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $976.60.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $980.03 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $976.60.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $988.25 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also up after the XPT/USD pair settled at $985.25 at the previous close.

09:24 USD/CHF slips to near 0.8300 as US yields fall, focus on US-China trade talks
USD/CHF edged lower during Asian trading on Friday, hovering around 0.8310 after posting gains in the previous two sessions. The pair came under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) softened, weighed down as US Treasury yields declined.

09:06 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $59.89 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close at $59.96.

09:01 Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY): -3.5% (March) vs previous -0.7%
Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY): -3.5% (March) vs previous -0.7%

09:00 Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) fell from previous 0.4% to -1.6% in March
Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) fell from previous 0.4% to -1.6% in March

09:00 Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY): 10.7% (March) vs 2.5%
Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY): 10.7% (March) vs 2.5%

08:45 FX option expiries for May 9 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 9 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 9 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1150 1.1b1.1200 2.4b1.1250 918m1.1260 1.1b1.1275 1.5b1.1300 2.2b1.1350 975m1.1400 1.1b1.1410 1.5bGBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3125 760m1.3375 959mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 141.00 3.1b142.50 1.1b143.00 1b145.00 2.9b145.50 972m146.00 1bAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6300 792m0.6400 1.2bUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3700 1.6b1.3750 1.7b1.4000 710m

08:33 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades with mild positive bias around mid-$32.00s
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some dip-buyers near the $32.20 area during the Asian session on Friday and climbs to a fresh daily high in the last hour.

08:24 EUR/USD rebounds above 1.1200, downside remains due to improved US Dollar
The EUR/USD pair trimmed daily losses and is trading around 1.1230 during Friday's Asian session. The pair depreciated as the US Dollar (USD) found support from upbeat US economic data and signs of easing trade tensions.

08:01 Japan Leading Economic Index above expectations (107.5) in March: Actual (107.7)
Japan Leading Economic Index above expectations (107.5) in March: Actual (107.7)

08:01 Japan Coincident Index dipped from previous 117.3 to 116 in March
Japan Coincident Index dipped from previous 117.3 to 116 in March

07:46 NZD/USD breaks below 0.5900, remains subdued following China’s trade data
The NZD/USD pair continues its downward trajectory for the third consecutive session, hovering near 0.5890 during Friday's Asian trading hours. The decline follows the release of China's latest trade data, which pointed to a slowdown in external demand.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD holds losses after China released its latest trade data, indicating a slowdown in external demand.China's trade surplus shrank to CNY 689.99 billion in April, down from CNY 736.72 billion in March.US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 228,000 for the week ending May 3, slightly beating expectations.The NZD/USD pair continues its downward trajectory for the third consecutive session, hovering near 0.5890 during Friday's Asian trading hours. The decline follows the release of China's latest trade data, which pointed to a slowdown in external demand. Given New Zealand’s strong trade links with China, any weakness in the Chinese economy tends to negatively impact the NZD.China’s trade surplus narrowed to CNY 689.99 billion in April, down from CNY 736.72 billion in March. Exports rose 9.3% year-on-year, easing from March's 13.5% growth, while imports edged up 0.8% YoY, recovering from a -3.5% decline previously.In US Dollar (USD) terms, the trade surplus stood at $96.18 billion—higher than the $89 billion forecast but below March’s $102.63 billion. Export growth slowed to 8.1% YoY from 12.4%, though it beat expectations of 1.9%. Imports declined slightly by 0.2% YoY, better than the expected -5.9% and the previous -4.3%. China’s trade surplus with the US shrank to $20.46 billion in April from $27.6 billion in March.Adding to the NZD’s woes, the US Dollar is gaining support from upbeat labor market data. US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 228,000 for the week ending May 3, slightly better than forecasts and down from the prior week's 241,000. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%, while the four-week moving average inched up to 226,000. Continuing Jobless Claims declined by 29,000 to 1.879 million for the week ending April 26, reflecting ongoing labor market strength. Economic Indicator Trade Balance CNY The Trade Balance released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the CNY. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market. In general, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY. Read more. Last release: Fri May 09, 2025 03:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 689.99B Consensus: - Previous: 736.72B Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

07:41 US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates near 100.50 area, just below multi-week high
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, enters a bullish consolidation phase after touching a nearly one-month top, around the 100.85 region during the Asian session on Friday.

07:38 Japanese Yen rebounds from multi-week low against USD; lacks bullish conviction
The Japanese Yen (JPY) recovers slightly from a four-week low touched against a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Friday, though it lacks any follow-through buying.

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Japan’s household spending data released earlier today came in well above consensus estimates, boosting the case for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and lending some support to the JPY. However, real wages in Japan declined for a third straight month in March, adding to worries over the growth outlook amid tariff uncertainty. This, along with the trade optimism, should keep a lid on any further gains for the JPY.The US-UK trade deal on Thursday raised hopes for more such deals with other countries. This comes ahead of US-China tariff negotiations in Switzerland over the weekend and remains supportive of a generally positive risk tone, which seems to act as a headwind for the safe-haven JPY. The USD, on the other hand, continues to draw support from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish pause earlier this week and easing concerns about a US recession. This could further limit any meaningful slide for the USD/JPY pair, which remains on track to register gains for the third straight week as traders await Fed speakers for a fresh impetus. Japanese Yen bulls seem non-committed as trade deal/talks optimism undermines safe-haven assetsGovernment data released earlier this Friday showed that Japan's household spending rose 0.4% in March and 2.1% from a year earlier, both surpassing market forecasts. Adding to this, expectations that sustained wage hikes will boost consumer spending and inflation in Japan suggest that the Bank of Japan may not abandon its rate-hike plans altogether.In fact, minutes from the BoJ's monetary policy meeting held on March 18-19 revealed on Thursday that the central bank remains ready to hike interest rates further if inflation trends hold. This, in turn, backs the case for further policy tightening by the BoJ in 2025 and assists the Japanese Yen to gain some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday.Separately, Japanese real wages decreased for a third consecutive month in March. In fact, inflation-adjusted wages dropped 2.1% from a year earlier following a revised 1.5% fall in February and a 2.8% decline in January. Furthermore, the consumer inflation rate used to calculate real wages rose 4.2% YoY in March, down slightly from 4.3% in the previous month. The data adds to worries about Japan’s growth outlook amid the uncertainty over US tariffs and ahead of a first-quarter Gross Domestic Product report next week. This, in turn, could act as a headwind for the JPY amid the upbeat market mood, led by the optimism over the US-UK trade deal and the start of US-China tariff negotiations in Switzerland over the week. Meanwhile, positive developments help to ease market concerns that an all-out trade war might trigger a US recession. Adding to this, the Federal Reserve's signal that it is not leaning towards cutting interest rates anytime soon, despite the heightened economic uncertainty, lifts the US Dollar to a four-week high, which, in turn, should lend support to the USD/JPY pair. There isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Friday. However, scheduled speeches from a slew of influential FOMC members will drive the USD demand later during the North American session. Furthermore, the broader risk sentiment should contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities on the last day of the week. USD/JPY could attract some dip-buying; Thursday’s breakout through 200-period SMA on H4 is in playFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair's overnight breakout through the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart could be seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have started gaining positive traction and are holding in bullish territory on hourly charts. This supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buyers at lower levels, which should limit the downside for spot prices near the 145.00 psychological mark (200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart). That said, a convincing break below the said resistance-turned-support might prompt some technical selling and drag the currency pair to the next relevant support near the 144.45 region. Meanwhile, bulls might now wait for a sustained move and acceptance above the 146.00 round figure before placing fresh bets. Some follow-through buying beyond the Asian session peak, around the 146.15-146.20 region, will reaffirm the near-term positive outlook and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. The subsequent move up could lift spot prices to an intermediate hurdle near the 146.75-146.80 region en route to the 147.00 mark. The momentum could extend further towards the 147.70 horizontal resistance before the pair aims to conquer the 148.00 round figure and climb further towards the 148.25-148.30 supply zone. Economic Indicator Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) This indicator, released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, shows the average income, before taxes, per regular employee. It includes overtime pay and bonuses but it doesn't take into account earnings from holding financial assets nor capital gains. Higher income puts upward pressures on consumption, and is inflationary for the Japanese economy. Generally, a higher-than-expected reading is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a below-the-market consensus result is bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu May 08, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2.1% Consensus: 2.3% Previous: 3.1% Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan

07:36 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,149.95 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,122.89 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold increased to INR 106,724.40 per tola from INR 106,407.60 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,149.95 10 Grams 91,500.50 Tola 106,724.40 Troy Ounce 284,595.60 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bears seem reluctant to place aggressive bets amid geopolitical risks US President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a limited bilateral trade deal on Thursday that leaves in place a 10% tariff on goods imported from the UK. Adding to this, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC that Washington will roll out dozens of trade deals over the next month, though a 10% tariff imposed on most countries will likely stay. Furthermore, the Trump administration is reportedly considering lowering the tariffs on China to 50% from 145% as soon as next week, which adds to the market optimism and might cap the XAU/USD pair. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet their Chinese counterparts in Switzerland on Saturday to discuss trade and economic issues. The Federal Reserve indicated on Wednesday that it is not leaning towards cutting interest rates anytime soon despite the increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook. This allows the US Dollar to build on its recent bounce from a multi-year low and climb to a four-week top during the Asian session on Friday, and contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding Gold price. Russia and Ukraine both reported attacks on their forces on the first day of a three-day unilateral ceasefire called by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Furthermore, Israel’s escalation with Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and fears of a wider military conflict along the India-Pakistan border keep geopolitical risks in play. This, in turn, could lend some support to the safe-haven precious metal. A slew of influential FOMC members are due to speak on Friday. Investors will look for more cues about the Fed's future rate-cut path, which, in turn, will play a key role in driving the USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to the commodity, which remains on track to post modest weekly gains. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:31 Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM): -0.6% (March) vs previous 1.2%
Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM): -0.6% (March) vs previous 1.2%

06:32 WTI hovers near $60.00, upside appears due to easing trade tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price edges lower during Asian trading hours on Friday, trading near $59.80 per barrel after posting a nearly 4% gain in the previous session.

06:17 China’s Vice Foreign Min Hua: Beijing has full confidence in ability to manage US trade issues
Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Hua Chunying said on Friday, “China has ‘full confidence’ in its ability to manage United States (US) trade issues.”

06:11 China’s Trade Balance: Surplus shrinks in April despite solid Exports
China's Trade Balance for April, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, came in at CNY689.99 billion, showing a slight cooling off from the previous figure of CNY736.72 billion.

China's Trade Balance for April, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, came in at CNY689.99 billion, showing a slight cooling off from the previous figure of CNY736.72 billion.Exports jumped 9.3% YoY in April vs. 13.5% in March. The country’s imports rose 0.8% YoY in the same period vs. -3.5% booked previously.In US Dollar (USD) terms, China’s trade surplus expanded more than expected in April.Trade Balance arrived at +96.18B versus +89B expected and +102.63B previous.

06:08 China Trade Balance CNY declined to 689.99B in April from previous 736.72B
China Trade Balance CNY declined to 689.99B in April from previous 736.72B

06:08 China Imports (YoY) above forecasts (-5.9%) in April: Actual (-0.2%)
China Imports (YoY) above forecasts (-5.9%) in April: Actual (-0.2%)

06:06 China Trade Balance USD registered at $96.18B above expectations ($89B) in April
China Trade Balance USD registered at $96.18B above expectations ($89B) in April

06:06 China Exports (YoY) registered at 8.1% above expectations (1.9%) in April
China Exports (YoY) registered at 8.1% above expectations (1.9%) in April

06:06 China Exports (YoY) CNY declined to 9.3% in April from previous 13.5%
China Exports (YoY) CNY declined to 9.3% in April from previous 13.5%

06:03 China Imports (YoY) above forecasts (-5.9%) in April: Actual (0.8%)
China Imports (YoY) above forecasts (-5.9%) in April: Actual (0.8%)

06:01 Indonesia Consumer Confidence up to 121.7 in April from previous 121.1
Indonesia Consumer Confidence up to 121.7 in April from previous 121.1

06:01 Indonesia Consumer Confidence climbed from previous 121.1 to 121.8 in April
Indonesia Consumer Confidence climbed from previous 121.1 to 121.8 in April

05:57 USD/INR surges due to risk aversion triggered by escalating India-Pakistan tensions
The Indian Rupee (INR) loses ground against the US Dollar (USD), extending its losses for the fourth successive session on Friday. The USD/INR pair opened with a gap up following approximately 1% gain in the previous day. Traders will likely await India’s FX Reserves data due later in the day.

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The USD/INR pair opened with a gap up following approximately 1% gain in the previous day. Traders will likely await India’s FX Reserves data due later in the day.The INR faces renewed pressure amid rising geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. India reported having neutralized military threats along its northern and western borders, triggering risk aversion in domestic markets. Market sentiment was further rattled by media reports of Indian drone strikes and Pakistan’s claims of shooting down drones, intensifying investor concerns and weighing on the INR.A trader notes that it is highly likely the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will intervene to signal its unwillingness to tolerate unchecked rupee depreciation. Without RBI support, he warns, there is a real risk of the USD/INR pair accelerating further to the upside.The volumes on the Indian rupee options soared after India's strikes in Pakistan, suggesting that the currency may go through a volatile patch on the back of the heightened tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. The surge in volumes did not reveal a notable directional bias. The split between call and put options remained fairly typical. This indicates that markets are "playing" volatility rather than positioning for a rupee depreciation, Reuters cited a senior forex trader at a bank.The USD/INR appreciates due to a stronger US Dollar (USD), boosted by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance, and rising crude Oil prices add pressure on the Indian Rupee. While the INR is expected to remain under stress, potential support from foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows could limit downside risk unless tensions intensify further across the Line of Control.Indian Rupee depreciates as US Dollar rises following strong US dataThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, is trading around 100.60, buoyed by strong US economic data. US President Donald Trump announced a “major” trade deal with the United Kingdom (UK), although key tariffs will remain at 10%, which limits market enthusiasm.US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance decreased to 228K for the week ending May 3. This print came in just below initial estimates and was lower than the previous week's unrevised tally of 241K. The report also highlighted a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.2%, while the four-week moving average increased by 1K to 226K from the prior week’s unrevised average. Moreover, Continuing Jobless Claims went down by 29K to reach 1.879M for the week ending April 26.President Trump has adopted a firm stance on China's trade policy, following the appointment of a new envoy to Beijing. While there are discussions around tariff exemptions, the administration appears cautious, with Trump stating that they are "not looking for so many exemptions."According to the Global Times, citing the Chinese Embassy in the United States, Beijing is unlikely to reduce tariffs ahead of the upcoming talks in Switzerland. This adds to market uncertainty and dampens risk sentiment.The Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% on Wednesday, but its statement acknowledged growing risks related to inflation and unemployment, injecting fresh uncertainty into markets. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, market participants are still anticipating a quarter-point rate cut in July.Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted during the press conference that US trade tariffs could obstruct the Fed’s objectives for inflation and employment in 2025. Powell indicated that persistent policy instability may force the Fed to adopt a more patient, 'wait-and-see' stance on future rate adjustments.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva over the weekend, marking the first high-level talks since the US imposed tariffs that escalated into a global trade dispute.India and Pakistan traded accusations over cross-border drone attacks on Thursday. According to the Indian Army, Pakistan’s armed forces carried out multiple strikes using drones and other munitions across India’s entire western border during the intervening night of Thursday and Friday.The Indian government confirmed it had targeted air defence radars and systems at multiple locations in Pakistan, in retaliation for Pakistan's attempt to strike several military targets in northern and western India.Traders anticipate India’s 10-year government bond yield to remain in the 6.30%–6.40% range this week, with attention centered on bond purchases and geopolitical developments between India and Pakistan.The recent decline in yields is driven by expectations of further rate cuts and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintaining surplus liquidity in the banking system through ongoing open market operations (OMOs), according to Reuters.USD/INR rises to near 86.00, ascending channel’s upper boundaryThe Indian Rupee continues to weaken, with the USD/INR pair trading near 85.90 on Friday. Technical indicators on the daily chart maintain a bearish bias, as the pair remains confined within a descending channel. However, a shift in momentum is hinted at by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has climbed above the 50 level, suggesting emerging bullish sentiment.Immediate support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 85.05, closely aligned with the key psychological level of 85.00. A decisive break below this zone could undermine short-term bullish attempts and open the door for a decline toward the channel’s lower boundary near 84.00. A breach of this level may intensify selling pressure, potentially driving the pair toward its eight-month low of 83.76.On the upside, a move higher could see the USD/INR pair challenge the descending channel’s upper boundary around 86.10, with further resistance anticipated near the two-month high of 86.71.USD/INR: Daily Chart Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:41 USD/CAD climbs to multi-week top, closer to mid-1.3900s amid sustained USD buying
The USD/CAD pair is seen building on this week's recovery from the year-to-date low, around mid-1.3700s, and gaining positive traction for the third successive day on Friday.

05:21 Gold price weakens further below $3,300 mark amid easing trade tensions
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through sellers for the third successive day on Friday and weakens further below the $3,300 mark during the Asian session.

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The Fed’s hawkish pause lifts the USD to a multi-week top and further weighs on the XAU/USD pair. Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through sellers for the third successive day on Friday and weakens further below the $3,300 mark during the Asian session. The US-UK trade deal raised hopes for more such deals with other countries and added to the latest optimism led by the announcement of US-China tariff negotiations. This remains supportive of a generally positive tone around the equity markets and is seen as a key factor undermining the safe-haven commodity. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish pause lifts the US Dollar (USD) to a four-week top and further weighs on the non-yielding yellow metal. However, geopolitical risks stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, and the India-Pakistan border could act as a tailwind for the Gold price. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bearish bets around the XAU/USD pair and opt to wait for headlines from the US-China trade talks. In the meantime, speeches from a slew of influential FOMC members will be looked for short-term opportunities later during the North American session. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD seems poised to register modest gains for the first time in three weeks. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by fading safe-haven demand and hawkish Fed-inspired USD strengthUS President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a limited bilateral trade deal on Thursday that leaves in place a 10% tariff on goods imported from the UK. Adding to this, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC that Washington will roll out dozens of trade deals over the next month, though a 10% tariff imposed on most countries will likely stay.Furthermore, the Trump administration is reportedly considering lowering the tariffs on China to 50% from 145% as soon as next week, which adds to the market optimism and might cap the XAU/USD pair. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet their Chinese counterparts in Switzerland on Saturday to discuss trade and economic issues. The Federal Reserve indicated on Wednesday that it is not leaning towards cutting interest rates anytime soon despite the increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook. This allows the US Dollar to build on its recent bounce from a multi-year low and climb to a four-week top during the Asian session on Friday, and contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding Gold price. Russia and Ukraine both reported attacks on their forces on the first day of a three-day unilateral ceasefire called by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Furthermore, Israel’s escalation with Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and fears of a wider military conflict along the India-Pakistan border keep geopolitical risks in play. This, in turn, could lend some support to the safe-haven precious metal.A slew of influential FOMC members are due to speak on Friday. Investors will look for more cues about the Fed's future rate-cut path, which, in turn, will play a key role in driving the USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to the commodity, which remains on track to post modest weekly gains. Gold price could find some support near the $3,265-3,264 area before extending a three-day-old downtrendFrom a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown through the $3,260 resistance-turned-support and the subsequent slide below the $3,300 mark on Friday favors the XAU/USD bears. However, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been losing traction – are yet to confirm the negative bias. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for deeper losses and suggests that the Gold price could find some support near the $3,265-3,264 horizontal zone. Some follow-through selling, however, should pave the way for a fall towards the $3,223-3,222 intermediate support en route to last week's swing low, around the $3,200 neighborhood.On the flip side, the Asian session high, around the $3,324 region, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. Any further move up could attract some sellers and cap the Gold price near the $3,360-3,365 static resistance. A sustained strength beyond the latter should allow the XAU/USD pair to reclaim the $3,400 mark and climb further towards the next relevant hurdle near the $3,434-3,435 area, or the weekly swing high. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

04:15 AUD/USD moves below 0.6400 ahead of China’s trade balance data
The AUD/USD pair continues its losing streak for the third consecutive session, trading near 0.6390 during Friday's Asian session. The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure due to stalled progress in US-China trade negotiations.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2095 vs. 7.2073 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.2095 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2073 and 7.2581 Reuters estimate.

02:50 Japan JP Foreign Reserves rose from previous $1272.5B to $1298.2B in April
Japan JP Foreign Reserves rose from previous $1272.5B to $1298.2B in April

02:50 Japan JP Foreign Reserves: $1B (April) vs previous $1272.5B
Japan JP Foreign Reserves: $1B (April) vs previous $1272.5B

02:33 EUR/USD fumbles again as trade deal hopes bolster Greenback bids
EUR/USD trimmed into the low end on Thursday, shedding a little over two-thirds of one percent from the day’s opening bids after US Dollar (USD) bids caught a broad-market boost following the tentative announcement of a pending trade deal between the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK).

02:30 Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (0.2%) in March
Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (0.2%) in March

02:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) came in at 2.1% below forecasts (2.3%) in March
Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) came in at 2.1% below forecasts (2.3%) in March

02:04 Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 5.16% above expectations (5%) in April
Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 5.16% above expectations (5%) in April

02:03 Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.66%, above expectations (0.5%) in April
Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.66%, above expectations (0.5%) in April

02:00 South Korea Current Account Balance up to 9.14B in March from previous 7.18B
South Korea Current Account Balance up to 9.14B in March from previous 7.18B

01:36 GBP/USD eases post-BoE rate cut as Greenback flows rise
GBP/USD kicked off Thursday with an early spat of gains, fueled by the Bank of England (BoE) delivering the market a widely-anticipated quarter point rate cut.

01:04 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD steady above $32 as risk sentiment improves on US-China talks
Siver price held firm on Thursday as risk appetite improved on news of a US-UK trade deal, along with hopes that Sino-US tensions could be lowered, as delegations of both countries would meet in Switzerland this weekend. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $32.44, down 0.15%.

01:04 US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: We're looking for a deal from a big country in Asia
United States (US) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick gave back-to-back interviews on CNBC and Fox Business on Thursday, reiterating some common trade talking points from the Trump administration.

United States (US) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick gave back-to-back interviews on CNBC and Fox Business on Thursday, reiterating some common trade talking points from the Trump administration. Specific details surrounding Comm Sec Lutnick's statements remain light, but the Trump administration may be fumbling showing its hand about who between the US and China is under more pressure to reach a justification for a tariff walkback.Key highlightsI think we'll get there by July 8th.

As you get to bigger economies and more work, it takes time.

I think the 10% baseline tariff stays.

If nations open their market, the best they can do is 10%.

De-escalation and bringing rates down is the goal for China.

We're going to roll out deals over the next month.

We want 50% of chips domestic.

I am in favor of raising the tax rate on high earners.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent is focused on China discussions. I'm a driver on the others.

The UK deal helps ease reliance on the China supply chain a bit.

I am focused on big countries for the next trade deals.

I am focused on big countries for the next trade deals.

We want a trade deal from a big country from Asia.

We have the cards, and we will play them well in trade talks.

01:00 AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Aussie extends gains near 1.0800 as bullish momentum builds
The AUD/NZD pair climbed higher on Thursday, trading near the 1.0800 area after the European session, reflecting a steady bullish tone as the market approaches the Asian session.

AUD/NZD trades near the 1.0800 zone after modest gains in Thursday’s session.Short-term indicators support the bullish bias, despite mixed long-term signals.Immediate support holds below, while resistance aligns near recent highs.The AUD/NZD pair climbed higher on Thursday, trading near the 1.0800 area after the European session, reflecting a steady bullish tone as the market approaches the Asian session. The pair remains close to the top of its daily range, suggesting that buyers maintain control despite some mixed signals from longer-term averages. Short-term momentum appears supportive, with the pair finding consistent demand on dips.Technically, the AUD/NZD is flashing a bullish signal overall. The Relative Strength Index remains neutral near 53, indicating balanced momentum without immediate overbought pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence supports the current uptrend with a confirmed buy signal, while the Stochastic RSI Fast and Commodity Channel Index remain neutral, reflecting a stable upward trajectory without immediate exhaustion.Shorter-term moving averages also reinforce the positive outlook. The 10-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages, both positioned near current price levels, are trending higher and provide immediate dynamic support. The 20-day Simple Moving Average sits just below, further underpinning the bullish case. However, the longer-term 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages remain well above, suggesting that broader selling pressure may still cap gains in the medium term.Support levels are noted at 1.0836, 1.0823, and 1.0815. Resistance stands at 1.0867, 1.0888, and 1.0927. A break above the immediate resistance zone could confirm a broader breakout, while a drop below support might trigger a short-term correction.Daily Chart

00:30 USD/JPY surges on Fed hold and US-UK trade optimism
The USD/JPY pair surged higher as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened following the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, coupled with renewed optimism over US-UK trade ties.

USD/JPY gains on Fed decision and upbeat US-UK trade news.US jobless claims fall to 228K, supporting broad USD strength.Technical indicators show support at 144.78 and resistance at 146.18.The USD/JPY pair surged higher as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened following the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, coupled with renewed optimism over US-UK trade ties. US President Donald Trump highlighted what he described as a "major breakthrough" in trade relations with the United Kingdom, boosting market sentiment. However, caution remains as details about the agreement indicate that a 10% tariff on UK goods will remain, potentially tempering initial enthusiasm.The US Dollar Index (DXY) pushed past the critical 100.00 mark, supported by robust economic data and the Federal Reserve’s steady policy stance. Weekly jobless claims fell to 228K for the week ending May 3, down from 241K in the prior week, signaling continued strength in the US labor market. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) minutes from its March meeting showed a cautious outlook, with policymakers concerned about the impact of US tariffs on Japan’s export-dependent economy. This divergence in central bank policies has favored the USD over the JPY.Technical AnalysisTechnically, USD/JPY is trading in a bullish pattern, currently hovering near 146.00 after reaching a daily high of 146.18. The RSI stands at 54.16, reflecting a neutral bias, while the MACD shows a clear buy signal. Short-term moving averages, including the 10-day EMA (143.90) and 10-day SMA (143.69), are aligned in a bullish configuration. However, longer-term resistance levels remain at the 100-day SMA (150.55) and 200-day SMA (149.58), potentially capping further gains.Key support levels are identified at 144.78, 144.63, and 144.56, while resistance is seen at 146.18, 146.42, and 148.35.In summary, USD/JPY remains poised for further upside as long as it holds above key support levels, with traders closely monitoring incoming US economic data and geopolitical headlines for potential volatility in the coming sessions.Daily Chart

00:15 Mexican Peso strengthens on inflation spike, post US-UK trade deal
The Mexican Peso advanced on Thursday against the Greenback as prices in Mexico accelerated near the top of Banco de Mexico’s (Banxico) inflation tolerance range. Additionally, an improvement in risk appetite due to the US/UK trade deal increased Peso’s appeal.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Mexico’s inflation accelerates in April, but Banxico’s Heath signals easing path to continue.USD/MXN pressured by improved risk sentiment after US-UK trade deal lifts EM currencies.Despite strong US jobless claims data, US Dollar remains muted ahead of Friday’s Fed commentary.The Mexican Peso advanced on Thursday against the Greenback as prices in Mexico accelerated near the top of Banco de Mexico’s (Banxico) inflation tolerance range. Additionally, an improvement in risk appetite due to the US/UK trade deal increased Peso’s appeal. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.55, down 0.15%.Inflation in Mexico accelerated in April, as revealed by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (INEGI). Although this suggested caution by Banxico, its Deputy Governor, Jonathan Heath, said that it is highly probable the central bank will continue to lower its interest rates, even though inflation risks are skewed to the upside.Heath added that in the second half of 2025, the decision would be taken with more caution, adding that there is room for easing policy. In the meantime, market participants seem confident that Banxico will cut rates by 50 basis points at the May 15 meeting.In the US, President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with the UK, which market participants perceived as positive news, and supported the emerging market (EM) currency. Wall Street extended its gains on Thursday, ahead of a busy schedule for Fed officials on Friday, which are expected to grab headlines amid an absent economic docket.Data-wise, the number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits was lower than expected, indicating a robust labor market. Despite this, the USD/MXN failed to gain traction, remaining muted during the day and confined to the 19.50-19.61 range.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso holds firm as sentiment improvesFollowing the Fed’s decision, data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) suggests that traders are pricing 67 bps of easing toward the end of 2025.Mexico’s April CPI rose by 3.93% YoY, above the 3.90% forecast and up from 3.80% compared to last year’s range. Core CPI increased by 3.93%, up from 3.64%, exceeding estimates of 3.92%.The Citi Mexico Expectations Survey indicates that most analysts expect Banxico to cut rates by 50 bps at the May 15 meeting.The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 3 came in at 228K, slightly below the expected 230K and an improvement from the prior week's 241K, according to the Department of Labor. The data signals a modest rebound in labor market stability.Although Mexico’s economy narrowly avoided a technical recession, tariffs imposed on Mexican products, a reduced budget, and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to strain the country’s finances and impact the Peso.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso loses steam as USD/MXN consolidatesThe USD/MXN is bearishly biased, though sellers had failed to drag the exchange rate past the current year-to-date (YTD) low of 19.46. This suggests bears’ lack of strength, clearing the path for a recovery.Momentum remains bearish, yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flattish slope confirms consolidation ahead.If USD/MXN drops below 19.46, the next support would be the 19.00 psychological figure. Conversely, if USD/MXN climbs past 19.78, expect a test of the 200-day SMA at 19.98. A breach of the latter will expose the 20.00 mark. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

00:00 EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Euro climbs toward 164.00 as bullish momentum builds
The EUR/JPY pair pushed higher on Thursday, trading near the 164.00 zone after the European session, reflecting a strong bullish tone as the pair approaches the Asian session.

EUR/JPY trades near the 164.00 zone after strong gains in Thursday’s session.Overall bias remains bullish, supported by upward-trending moving averages.Immediate support holds below, while resistance aligns near recent highs.The EUR/JPY pair pushed higher on Thursday, trading near the 164.00 zone after the European session, reflecting a strong bullish tone as the pair approaches the Asian session. Price action remained near the top of the day’s range, suggesting that buyers maintain control despite some mixed short-term signals. The broader technical structure remains supportive, underpinned by a cluster of rising moving averages.From a technical perspective, the bullish bias is clear. The Relative Strength Index holds a neutral reading near 58, reflecting steady momentum without immediate overbought conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence prints a buy signal, confirming the positive tone, while the Average Directional Index remains neutral, indicating that trend strength is present but not extreme. The Commodity Channel Index also remains neutral, adding to the view that the uptrend is gaining traction without being overstretched.The backbone of the bullish case comes from the moving averages. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages are all positioned well below current price levels and continue to slope upward, providing strong underlying support. The 10-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages further reinforce this structure, indicating that the broader trend remains intact and buyers retain the upper hand.Support levels are identified at 162.84, 162.80, and 162.66. Resistance is likely to emerge near recent highs, with a breakout above this zone potentially confirming the next leg higher. A sustained move above these levels could open the door to further gains in the sessions ahead.Daily Chart

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Forex News Timeline

23:21 Australian Dollar under pressure as global trade and economic uncertainties persist The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure as global trade uncertainties persist, particularly surrounding the US-China trade talks.

23:05 Mexican Peso firms despite weak data as trades turn cautious on US-China talks The Mexican Peso (MXN) registered modest gains versus the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as market participants turned cautious ahead of the US-China talks in Switzerland.

22:37 Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions: €75.7K vs previous €75.8K Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions: €75.7K vs previous €75.8K

22:37 Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions rose from previous $-49.9K to $-48.4K Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions rose from previous $-49.9K to $-48.4K

22:36 United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions rose from previous $-78.7K to $-76.4K United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions rose from previous $-78.7K to $-76.4K

22:36 United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $162.5K vs previous $163.3K United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $162.5K vs previous $163.3K

22:36 United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £24K to £29.2K United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £24K to £29.2K

22:36 United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions down to 175.4K from previous 177.2K United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions down to 175.4K from previous 177.2K

22:36 Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions dipped from previous ¥179.2K to ¥176.9K Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions dipped from previous ¥179.2K to ¥176.9K

21:37 Canadian Dollar flatlines on Friday as markets look elsewhere The Canadian Dollar (CAD) flattened on Friday, sticking close to 1.3900 against the US Dollar (USD) as Loonie markets struggle to find a reason to move too far in either direction.

21:30 USD/JPY pauses near resistance as breakout decision looms The USD/JPY pair remains a focal point in the foreign exchange market, fluctuating within a key technical zone as markets digest evolving economic and monetary policy expectations.

21:16 US Dollar slides as markets brace for China trade talks The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, reverses sharply on Friday after hitting a near one-month high of 100.86 earlier in the day.

20:38 US Press Secretary Leavitt: Trump will not bring down tariffs on China White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt addressed media staff on Friday, walking back some of the tone and market interpretations of President Donald Trump's early morning tweets.

20:31 Dow Jones Industrial Average retreats as US-China trade talks loom The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) followed the broader market lower on Friday, declining to 41,150 as investors gear up for a tense weekend.

20:02 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count fell from previous 479 to 474 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count fell from previous 479 to 474

19:15 USD/CHF struggles as trade talk uncertainty and stagflation fears weigh on sentiment The USD/CHF pair is navigating a critical juncture as it trades near a key support level, with broader market sentiment clouded by trade talk uncertainties.

19:00 GBP/USD gains on US-UK agreement, holds near 1.33 The Pound Sterling posted solid gains on Friday, edging up 0.41% after the announcement of a trade deal between the US and the UK on Thursday.

17:30 USD/JPY corrects to near 145.00 as US Dollar retraces, US-China trade talks in spotlight The USD/JPY pair retraces to near 145.00 during North American trading hours on Friday after failing to extend its upside above almost a month's high of 146.20 earlier in the day.

17:06 China's Copper ore imports at record level – Commerzbank Trade data from China also supports the impression of continued strong demand for Copper in the most important market for the metal, which is essential for electrification, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

16:59 Chinese central bank has been buying Gold for six months – Commerzbank The Chinese central bank PBoC continued to buy Gold in April for the sixth month in a row, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

16:54 EIA lowers forecast for US oil production – Commerzbank The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for US crude oil production downwards, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

16:47 USD/CAD ticks higher to near 1.3920 as Canadian unemployment accelerates The USD/CAD pair moves higher to near 1.3920 in Friday’s North American session after the release of the Canadian labor market data for April.

16:15 Canada Unemployment Rate rises to 6.9% in April vs. 6.8% expected The Unemployment Rate in Canada edged higher to 6.9% in April from 6.7% in March, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. This reading came in above the market expectation of 6.8%.

16:04 Fed's Williams: Price stability is foundational for Fed New York Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President John Williams said on Friday that price stability is foundational for the Fed, per Reuters.

15:30 Canada Participation Rate up to 65.3% in April from previous 65.2% Canada Participation Rate up to 65.3% in April from previous 65.2%

15:30 Canada Unemployment Rate registered at 6.9% above expectations (6.8%) in April Canada Unemployment Rate registered at 6.9% above expectations (6.8%) in April

15:30 Canada Net Change in Employment above forecasts (2.5K) in April: Actual (7.4K) Canada Net Change in Employment above forecasts (2.5K) in April: Actual (7.4K)

15:01 EUR entering NA session with modest gain – Scotiabank The Euro (EUR) is entering Friday’s NA session with a modest 0.2% gain, still trading below 1.13 but seeing a solid recovery from a short lived decline to 1.12, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:01 Mexico Consumer Confidence down to 45.5 in April from previous 64.1 Mexico Consumer Confidence down to 45.5 in April from previous 64.1

15:01 Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a fell from previous 46 to 45.3 in April Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a fell from previous 46 to 45.3 in April

15:00 Brazil IPCA Inflation fell from previous 0.56% to 0.43% in April Brazil IPCA Inflation fell from previous 0.56% to 0.43% in April

15:00 USD/CNH: Downward momentum is slowing rapidly – UOB Group Room for US Dollar (USD) to continue to rise against the Chinese Yuan (CNH), but it does not appear to have enough momentum to break above 7.2600.

14:59 Fed's Kugler: Makes sense to maintain moderately restrictive policy rate Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Adriana Kugler told Bloomber TV on Friday that the policy rate is currently moderately restrictive and added that it makes sense to maintain it.

14:56 China also imported large quantities of crude oil in April – Commerzbank Chinese refineries continued to import large quantities of crude oil in April, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

14:53 CAD is flat and consolidating post-Fed losses – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is entering Friday’s NA session trading flat vs. the US Dollar (USD) as it consolidates this week’s post-Fed losses.

14:50 Kazakhstan continues to produce too much oil – Commerzbank Kazakhstan continues to produce significantly more oil than agreed and apparently has no plans to reduce production in May, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

14:48 USD soft, fading portion of post-Fed gains into US/China trade talks – Scotiabank G10 FX performance is varied heading into Friday’s NA session as most currencies claw back a portion of this week’s post-Fed losses against the US Dollar (USD).

14:35 US Pres. Trump: 80% tariff on China seems right In a post published on Truth Social on Friday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said 80% tariffs on Chinese goods "seems right."

14:35 AUD/USD rises above 0.6400 as US Dollar falls back, US-China trade talks eyed The AUD/USD pair recovers initial losses and rises above the key level of 0.6400 during European trading hours on Friday.

14:32 USD/JPY might not be able to break above 146.55 – UOB Group Scope for US Dollar (USD) to rise further vs Japanese Yen (JPY); overbought conditions suggest any advance might not be able to break above 146.55.

14:30 India FX Reserves, USD down to $686.06B in April 28 from previous $688.13B India FX Reserves, USD down to $686.06B in April 28 from previous $688.13B

14:20 USD/JPY: Rebound meets first resistance – OCBC US Dollar (USD) short covering gathered pace vs. safe haven proxies. USDJPY was last at 145.30 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

14:15 Gold rally stalls below $3500 mark – Société Générale Gold faces consolidation after stalling near $3500, with a lower high at $3435 and weakening momentum suggesting a temporary pause in the uptrend, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

13:57 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Strengthens after Falling wedge breakout The USD/CAD pair holds onto gains made on Thursday around 1.3920 during European trading hours on Friday. The Loonie pair performs strongly as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on multiple tailwinds.

13:34 DXY: Short squeeze on the cards – OCBC US Dollar (USD) short squeeze gained traction and broadened against more currencies from safe haven to procyclical FX. MYR, Gold, JPY and THB led losses.

13:33 Fed's Barkin: Watching consumers most closely Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday that they are watching the consumer activity most closely because that's the biggest part of the economy, per Reuters.

13:21 CNY: Hardly any signs of slowdown in exports – Commerzbank In April, Chinese exports rose by 8.1% year-on-year to reach USD 315.7 billion, marking the highest level ever recorded for the month of April, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

13:07 Fed's Barr: Policy in a good position to adjust as conditions unfold Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said on Friday that the monetary policy is in a good position to adjust as conditions unfold, per Reuters.

13:04 Portugal Global Trade Balance: €-6.216B (March) vs €-6.653B Portugal Global Trade Balance: €-6.216B (March) vs €-6.653B

12:52 JPY: Wages disappoint again – Commerzbank Data on wage developments in March was published in Japan this morning, and was rather disappointing overall once again, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

12:44 USD: Plethora of Fed speakers to watch today – ING It’s been a good second half of the week for the dollar, mostly thanks to positive trade news and a hawkish Federal Reserve.

12:31 USD: Much ado about little – Commerzbank Yesterday afternoon, Donald Trump finally presented his first trade deal with the United Kingdom in the Oval Office. However, despite all the fanfare, it must be said that the substance was rather thin once again.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

12:20 EUR: Starting to look towards 1.10? – ING For most of the past couple of weeks, EUR/USD buyers emerged vehemently in the 1.1250-1.1300 area. The break lower seen yesterday is telling.

12:00 Greece Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous -0.1% to 1.7% in March Greece Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous -0.1% to 1.7% in March

12:00 Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY) down to 2.6% in April from previous 3.1% Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY) down to 2.6% in April from previous 3.1%

12:00 Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY) declined to 2% in April from previous 2.4% Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY) declined to 2% in April from previous 2.4%

11:46 Bailey speech: Our commitment to 2% inflation target is unwavering Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated on Friday that their commitment to the 2% inflation target is unwavering, per Reuters.

11:30 ECB's Šimkus: Eurozone inflation depends on EU retaliation to the US European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Friday that “Eurozone inflation depends on EU retaliation to the US.”

11:01 Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) climbed from previous -2.7% to -1.8% in March Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) climbed from previous -2.7% to -1.8% in March

11:01 Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.5%) in March Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.5%) in March

10:54 ECB's Rehn: Disinflation is on track and the growth outlook is weakening European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn commented on the inflation and growth outlook on Friday.

10:54 Forex Today: Markets await comments from central bankers Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 9:

10:01 EUR/GBP rises to near 0.8500, dovish ECB tone caps upside EUR/GBP halts its four-day losing streak, trading around 0.8490 during early European hours on Friday.

10:00 Austria Industrial Production (YoY) down to 1.4% in February from previous 1.8% Austria Industrial Production (YoY) down to 1.4% in February from previous 1.8%

09:06 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $59.89 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close at $59.96.

09:01 Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY): -3.5% (March) vs previous -0.7% Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY): -3.5% (March) vs previous -0.7%

09:00 Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) fell from previous 0.4% to -1.6% in March Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) fell from previous 0.4% to -1.6% in March

09:00 Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY): 10.7% (March) vs 2.5% Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY): 10.7% (March) vs 2.5%

08:45 FX option expiries for May 9 NY cut FX option expiries for May 9 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

08:33 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades with mild positive bias around mid-$32.00s Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some dip-buyers near the $32.20 area during the Asian session on Friday and climbs to a fresh daily high in the last hour.

08:01 Japan Leading Economic Index above expectations (107.5) in March: Actual (107.7) Japan Leading Economic Index above expectations (107.5) in March: Actual (107.7)

08:01 Japan Coincident Index dipped from previous 117.3 to 116 in March Japan Coincident Index dipped from previous 117.3 to 116 in March

07:38 Japanese Yen rebounds from multi-week low against USD; lacks bullish conviction The Japanese Yen (JPY) recovers slightly from a four-week low touched against a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Friday, though it lacks any follow-through buying.

07:36 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:31 Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM): -0.6% (March) vs previous 1.2% Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM): -0.6% (March) vs previous 1.2%

06:32 WTI hovers near $60.00, upside appears due to easing trade tensions West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price edges lower during Asian trading hours on Friday, trading near $59.80 per barrel after posting a nearly 4% gain in the previous session.

06:17 China’s Vice Foreign Min Hua: Beijing has full confidence in ability to manage US trade issues Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Hua Chunying said on Friday, “China has ‘full confidence’ in its ability to manage United States (US) trade issues.”

06:11 China’s Trade Balance: Surplus shrinks in April despite solid Exports China's Trade Balance for April, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, came in at CNY689.99 billion, showing a slight cooling off from the previous figure of CNY736.72 billion.