Forex News Timeline
23:37 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock below forecasts (0.7M) in June 6: Actual (-0.37M)
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock below forecasts (0.7M) in June 6: Actual (-0.37M)
23:32 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Breaks above 145.00 as trade hopes lift USD
The USD/JPY advances for the first time in the week, clearing Monday’s high of 144.95, as the US Dollar climbs on speculation that Washington and Beijing might reach a trade agreement in London. This has pushed the major above 145.00, posting gains of over 0.24%.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY clears Monday’s high, trades near 145.20 amid upbeat risk tone. RSI momentum favors bulls; key resistance stands at 145.38 and 146.00.Downside capped by 144.00 support zone and 200-day SMA at 144.26.The USD/JPY advances for the first time in the week, clearing Monday’s high of 144.95, as the US Dollar climbs on speculation that Washington and Beijing might reach a trade agreement in London. This has pushed the major above 145.00, posting gains of over 0.24%.USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookConsolidation is the name of the game. The USD/JPY is trapped on the downside by the confluence of the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 144.26, and the June 9 close near 144.00. Topside, the first resistance is the Senkou Span B at 145.18, followed by the Kijun-sen at 145.38.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish. Hence, the pair may resume its uptrend in the near term, once it clears key resistance levels.If USD/JPY buyers claim 145.38, the next target is 146.00. A decisive break will expose the 100-day SMA at 147.72. Otherwise, if the pair tumbles below 144.00, the first support would be the June 3 low at 142.37 and the May 27 swing low at 142.11. Japanese Yen PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.23% 0.21% 0.01% -0.14% -0.37% -0.51% 0.13% EUR 0.23% 0.43% 0.23% 0.07% -0.13% -0.29% 0.35% GBP -0.21% -0.43% -0.10% -0.36% -0.54% -0.72% -0.08% JPY -0.01% -0.23% 0.10% -0.16% -0.45% -0.58% -0.01% CAD 0.14% -0.07% 0.36% 0.16% -0.25% -0.36% 0.27% AUD 0.37% 0.13% 0.54% 0.45% 0.25% -0.16% 0.47% NZD 0.51% 0.29% 0.72% 0.58% 0.36% 0.16% 0.63% CHF -0.13% -0.35% 0.08% 0.01% -0.27% -0.47% -0.63% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
22:07 AUD/USD trades in a firm range ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI print
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is consolidating against the US Dollar on Tuesday, as AUD/USD trades above 0.6500 at the time of writing.
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Although the improved relations provided some support for the US Dollar, AUD/USD benefited from Australia’s close ties with China.With senior officials from both countries signaling progress, the talks have helped improve broader risk sentiment, offering the Aussie some support in the face of weaker domestic data. On Tuesday, Westpac Consumer Confidence index data for June dropped to 0.5%, down from 2.2% in May, signaling a notable decline in household sentiment. However, since China is Australia’s largest trading partner, easing tensions between the US and China also helps support demand for commodities, a prominent driver of the AUD/USD price pair.US CPI and Fed expectations provide an additional headwind for the Greenback Looking ahead, markets remain focused on the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve(Fed) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). On Wednesday, the United States will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, which is expected to inform expectations for the Fed.Headline inflation is projected to rise to 0.3% MoM in May, up from 0.2% in April, with the annual rate climbing to 2.5% from 2.3%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, is also forecast to increase 0.3% MoM, compared to 0.2% previously, with the annual reading rising to 2.9% from 2.8%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged within the current 4.25% to 4.50% range at both the June and July meetings, with a 53.6% probability of a rate cut priced in for September.If inflation shows additional signs of easing, the Fed could adopt a more flexible approach to its monetary path, which could ease near-term rate expectations. Softer rate expectations could support the AUD, while rising inflation will likely solidify a pushback in Fed rate cut bets, providing support for the US Dollar. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
22:07 Forex Today: Can US inflation change the Fed’s plans to ease in September?
The Greenback traded with a slightly positive bias on Tuesday, reversing a bearish start to the week and supported by consistent caution on US-China trade talks in London, while prudence also developed ahead of the publication of vital US inflation data on Wednesday.
The Greenback traded with a slightly positive bias on Tuesday, reversing a bearish start to the week and supported by consistent caution on US-China trade talks in London, while prudence also developed ahead of the publication of vital US inflation data on Wednesday.Here's what to watch on Wednesday, June 11: The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuated within the 99.00 range due to stable yields and growing apprehension about the US-China trade negotiations. The US Inflation Rate will be the salient event, seconded by the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, and the EIA’s report on US crude oil inventories.EUR/USD alternated gains with losses in the low-1.1400 as investors remained prudent amid trade discussions between the US and China. Absent data releases on the euro calendar, the focus ofd attention will be on speeches by the ECB’s Buch, Lane, and Cipollone.Poor results from the UK jobs report sent GBP/USD to the area of multi-day troughs near 1.3450, just to gather some momentum afterwards. All the attention will be on Chancellor Reeves’ Spending Review.Further depreciation of the Japanese Yen prompted USD/JPY to advance to two-week highs near 145.30 on Tuesday amid a generalised flattish mood in the FX galaxy. Producer Prices are next on tap on the domestic calendar.AUD/USD clung to its daily gains above the 0.6500 barrier following developments from the US-China trade discussion in the UK. The next data release in Australia will be the Consumer Inflation Expectations on June 12.WTI prices surged past the $66.00 mark per barrel, marking new two-month highs, as a potential positive outcome from the US-China trade discussions in London boosted sentiment. However, that initial move faded afterwards, sending the commodity to the red territory near the $64.00 mark.Gold prices traded in an irresolute fashion on Tuesday, fading Monday’s uptick and lingering around the $3,330 mark per troy ounce amid rising prudence stemming from the US-China trade talks. Silver prices clocked a marked pullback, reversing three consecutive daily upticks, including Friday’s advance to the vicinity of the $37.00 mark per ounce for the first time since February 2012.
21:39 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD pulls back from $37.00 as US Dollar rebounds on US-Sino talks
Silver price faces resistance near $37.00 and retreats by some 0.50% on Tuesday as the US dollar stages a comeback, with investors growing more confident of a US-China deal later in the day. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $36.52, below its opening price.
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At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $36.52, below its opening price.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookDespite retreating, XAG/USD remains upward biased after clearing the October 23, 2024, peak of $34.86, which exacerbated an advance to $35.00 and beyond. It should be noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached overbought conditions.Although this sets up a pullback, buyers would remain safe as long as Silver remains above the $35.00 mark. Key resistance lies at $36.82, $37.00, and $37.49, a 13-year high set on February 29.Conversely, if XAG/USD tumbles below $36.00, the first support would the $35.40, a high from October 2012, which has since turned into support. Once surpassed, the next stop is $35.00, followed by the $34.00 and $33.00 figures, ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.95.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
21:37 EUR/USD holds steady as traders eye US-China talks, US CPI data
EUR/USD remains stable during Tuesday’s North American session as investors await updates on US-China trade talks in London and the release of the latest inflation figures in the United States (US). At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1423, virtually unchanged.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD retreats from 1.1447 high, trading flat near 1.1423 on Tuesday.US-China trade talks in London are described as “good” but lack concrete progress.ECB officials signal end of easing cycle; await clarity on tariff impact.US CPI data and ECB’s Wage Tracker could drive the next major move.EUR/USD remains stable during Tuesday’s North American session as investors await updates on US-China trade talks in London and the release of the latest inflation figures in the United States (US). At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1423, virtually unchanged.Washington and Beijing continued their second day of discussions, which, despite being touted as “good” by US President Donald Trump, are failing to sustain traders’ upbeat mood. Meanwhile, speculation that both sides would reach common ground to ease tensions boosted the US Dollar (USD). Among the themes discussed between the two parties are rare earths, chip exports and student visas. In the meantime, traders digested the latest data releases, as small business sentiment in the US improved, as revealed by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Optimism Index.Across the pond, the Eurozone Sentix Investor's Confidence improved in June, as the index turned positive for the first time in the year. European Central Bank (ECB) officials crossed the wires, with Yannis Stournaras saying that stable European Union (EU) policy drew investors towards the Euro.ECB’s Boris Vujcic said that they couldn’t say if US tariffs are disinflationary or inflationary, adding that the ECB could await new projections. ECB’s Olli Rehn favors the idea of a meeting-by-meeting approach, and Francois Villeroy commented that the ECB has successfully normalized policy.Therefore, the recent twist on Villeroy's comments, along with President Christine Lagarde's comments that rates are near the end of the easing cycle, could push the EUR/USD higher.Traders' eyes are on the US inflation report, ECB speakers and Wage Tracker. Euro PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.23% 0.25% 0.06% -0.03% -0.31% -0.37% 0.11% EUR 0.23% 0.46% 0.28% 0.18% -0.06% -0.15% 0.32% GBP -0.25% -0.46% -0.10% -0.27% -0.51% -0.61% -0.14% JPY -0.06% -0.28% 0.10% -0.09% -0.42% -0.49% -0.07% CAD 0.03% -0.18% 0.27% 0.09% -0.30% -0.34% 0.14% AUD 0.31% 0.06% 0.51% 0.42% 0.30% -0.09% 0.39% NZD 0.37% 0.15% 0.61% 0.49% 0.34% 0.09% 0.48% CHF -0.11% -0.32% 0.14% 0.07% -0.14% -0.39% -0.48% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD trade choppy ahead of US inflation reportThe US NFIB Optimism Index climbed from 95.8 in April to 98.8 in May, surpassing its long-term average. This marked the end of a four-month decline in sentiment and conditions for US small businesses, which had been weighed down by uncertainty surrounding tariffs.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to climb by 2.5% YoY in May, up from 2.3%, while Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to edge higher from 2.8% to 2.9% YoY, signaling stickier inflationary pressures.The EU’s Sentix Confidence Index improved by 0.2% in June after plunging to -8.1 in May and -19.5 in April.Financial market players do not expect that the ECB would reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the July monetary policy meeting.Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD clings to 1.1400 as buyers lose steamEUR/USD price action suggests the uptrend remains in play, but so far, buyers have failed to clear the 1.15 figure, which would immediately expose the current year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.1572. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests that consolidation lies ahead, as buyers take a respite.On the other hand, bears would step in if EUR/USD drops below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1.1331, clearing the path for a challenge of 1.13 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1281. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
21:14 Canadian Dollar trades steady as Loonie bidding holds firm
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) kicked back into recent highs against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, keeping the USD/CAD pair restrained below the 1.3700 handle. Markets are increasingly focused on trade headlines and looming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data due on Wednesday.
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Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
20:50 Mexican Peso steadies ahead of US-Mexico trade talks, US CPI
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is trading flat against the US Dollar (USD) during Tuesday’s US session, as investor focus remained on the ongoing US–China trade talks in London.
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Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN remains focused on interest rates and trade relationsMexico will release its Industrial output data for April at 14:00 GMT on Wednesday. The May report showed industrial output contracting by 0.9% MoM in March. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May will be released at 14:30 GMT on Wednesday. Headline inflation is projected to rise to 0.3% MoM in May, up from 0.2% in April, with the annual rate climbing to 2.5% from 2.3%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, is also forecast to increase 0.3% MoM, compared to 0.2% previously, with the annual reading rising to 2.9% from 2.8%. This data is highly significant, as it will play a major role in shaping market expectations around the Fed’s rate path. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged within the current 4.25% to 4.50% range at both the June and July meetings, with a 53.6% probability of a rate cut priced in for September.Talks in London between senior US and Chinese officials have shown encouraging signs of progress, helping to lift risk sentiment and stabilize the US Dollar. On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick continued their discussions with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng in London for a second day. Last Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised to the upside, with the May labour market data showing 139,000 new jobs added, outperforming analyst expectations of a 130,000 increase. This stronger-than-expected print reinforced the resilience of the US economy and helped lift the US Dollar. Mexican Peso technical analysis: USD/MXN stalls above 19.00USD/MXN is trading near 19.05 on Tuesday, holding just above the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 19.01, drawn from the July low to the February high. This zone has provided strong technical support over recent sessions, helping to stabilize the pair after sustained downside pressure. USD/MXN daily chartImmediate resistance is seen between 19.21 and 19.28, where the 10-day and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are capping upside attempts. A confirmed move above this range could open the door toward the 19.47–19.74 zone, where broader retracement levels from the November 2021–April 2024 move are providing additional technical barriers. On the downside, a break below 19.01 would be significant and could trigger a deeper pullback toward 18.85 and possibly 18.60. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 34, suggesting bearish momentum is slowing but not yet reversing. The next directional move will likely be driven by key macro events, including Wednesday’s US CPI report and developments in global trade relations. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN remains focused on interest rates and trade relationsMexico will release its Industrial output data for April at 14:00 GMT on Wednesday. The May report showed industrial output contracting by 0.9% MoM in March. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May will be released at 14:30 GMT on Wednesday. Headline inflation is projected to rise to 0.3% MoM in May, up from 0.2% in April, with the annual rate climbing to 2.5% from 2.3%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, is also forecast to increase 0.3% MoM, compared to 0.2% previously, with the annual reading rising to 2.9% from 2.8%. This data is highly significant, as it will play a major role in shaping market expectations around the Fed’s rate path. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged within the current 4.25% to 4.50% range at both the June and July meetings, with a 53.6% probability of a rate cut priced in for September.Talks in London between senior US and Chinese officials have shown encouraging signs of progress, helping to lift risk sentiment and stabilize the US Dollar. On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick continued their discussions with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng in London for a second day. Last Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised to the upside, with the May labour market data showing 139,000 new jobs added, outperforming analyst expectations of a 130,000 increase. This stronger-than-expected print reinforced the resilience of the US economy and helped lift the US Dollar. Mexican Peso technical analysis: USD/MXN stalls above 19.00USD/MXN is trading near 19.05 on Tuesday, holding just above the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 19.01, drawn from the July low to the February high. This zone has provided strong technical support over recent sessions, helping to stabilize the pair after sustained downside pressure. USD/MXN daily chartImmediate resistance is seen between 19.21 and 19.28, where the 10-day and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are capping upside attempts. A confirmed move above this range could open the door toward the 19.47–19.74 zone, where broader retracement levels from the November 2021–April 2024 move are providing additional technical barriers. On the downside, a break below 19.01 would be significant and could trigger a deeper pullback toward 18.85 and possibly 18.60. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 34, suggesting bearish momentum is slowing but not yet reversing. The next directional move will likely be driven by key macro events, including Wednesday’s US CPI report and developments in global trade relations. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
20:12 Dow Jones Industrial Average melt-up continues as markets await trade talk results
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is still trading into the high end of recent congestion on Tuesday. Market momentum remains limited overall as traders brace for a one-two punch of trade headlines and key post-tariff Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data due on Wednesday.
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Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
20:04 United States 3-Year Note Auction rose from previous 3.824% to 3.972%
United States 3-Year Note Auction rose from previous 3.824% to 3.972%
19:38 Gold price steadies above $3,300 as markets cheer progress in US-China talks
Gold price clings to modest gains on Tuesday after bouncing off a daily low near the $3,300 figure as talks between the United States (US) and China appear to be progressing well, improving risk appetite among investors who are driving US equities higher. The XAU/USD trades at $3,328, up 0.10%.
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The XAU/USD trades at $3,328, up 0.10%.The market mood remains positive, fueled by the reunion between US and Chinese officials in London. Meanwhile, price action in the financial markets remains choppy as traders await the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May. Estimates suggest that prices most likely rose, with US households feeling the impact of tariffs by the Trump administration.Therefore, the Federal Reserve (Fed) could remain in its wait-and-see mode, keeping interest rates at the 4.25%-4.50% range.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Dollar against a basket of peers, recovers after hitting a daily low of 98.86 and is up 0.06% at 99.07.On Tuesday, the US economic schedule revealed that small businesses are growing more optimistic, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Optimism Index, which improved in May compared to figures revealed in April.Daily digest market movers: Gold price holds firm amid steady US Treasury yieldsThe US 10-year Treasury yield remains flat at 4.474%. US real yields have also remained unchanged at 2.16%, capping the Bullion price advance.The NFIB Optimism Index rose from 95.8 in April to 98.8 in May, taking the index above its long-term average. The print finished a four-month streak of worsening conditions and sentiment for US small businesses due to uncertainty about tariffs.Traders would be relieved if talks between Washington and Beijing yield a positive outcome, which could prompt investors to shift toward riskier assets, such as equities. However, the release of inflation figures for the US could cap outflows from Gold.The US CPI is expected to rise from 2.3% to 2.5% YoY, with core figures projected to increase from 2.8% to 2.9% YoY.Geopolitical tensions remain high as US President Trump told Fox News that Iran is becoming much more aggressive in nuclear talks. This, along with Russia’s claim to control territory in Ukraine’s east-central region, could push Gold prices higher, clearing the path to test $3,350 in the short term.Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 43.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.Source: Prime Market TerminalXAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price trades sideways within $3,300-$3,350 corridorFrom a technical standpoint, XAU/USD found strong support around $3,290-$3,300 provided by a support trendline, along with the current week’s low. Momentum is also favoring further upside as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish.If XAU/USD clears $3,350, this opens the door for a move toward $3,400. Further strength lies in $3,450 and the all-time high (ATH) at $3,500. On the flip side, Gold sliding below $3,300 opens the path to challenge key support levels, such as the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,265, followed by the April 3 high, which has since become support at $3,167. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
18:45 United States 52-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 3.93% to 3.94%
United States 52-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 3.93% to 3.94%
17:40 USD/JPY trades in a tight range as interest rate differentials, trade talks drive sentiment
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is steadying against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the USD/JPY pair hovering above the 144.00 level in relatively muted trade.
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USD/JPY remains supported above 144.00 as US-China trade talks remain in focus.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s hawkish tilt limits Yen weakness.The US Dollar steadies ahead of Wednesday’s US inflation data, which could contribute to Fed rate bets.The Japanese Yen (JPY) is steadying against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the USD/JPY pair hovering above the 144.00 level in relatively muted trade. With markets focused on US–China trade negotiations and broader risk sentiment, USD/JPY remains sensitive to shifts in both geopolitical developments and interest rate expectations. While the trade talks in London appear to be making progress, a more hawkish tone from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has helped limit further downside in the Yen. On Tuesday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that inflation still has some way to go to sustainably reach the 2% target. Ueda stated that “We will raise interest rates if we have enough confidence that underlying inflation nears 2% or moves around 2%.”Market participants interpreted these remarks as reducing the likelihood of an imminent interest-rate hike.On Wednesday, the next fundamental catalyst on the US economic calendar will be the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May. Expectations are for headline US CPI to rise by 0.2% on a monthly basis. Inflation is expected to increase to 2.5% YoY, from 2.3% in April.The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to show a 0.3% MoM increase in May compared to 0.2% in April. The YoY figure is also estimated to reflect a 0.1% increase, rising to 2.9% compared to 2.8% in April.A hotter-than-expected print could reignite USD strength by reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hold, while a softer number may weigh on the Greenback. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.08% 0.18% 0.12% -0.20% -0.20% -0.09% -0.04% EUR 0.08% 0.27% 0.20% -0.09% -0.11% -0.01% 0.05% GBP -0.18% -0.27% -0.16% -0.36% -0.37% -0.27% -0.21% JPY -0.12% -0.20% 0.16% -0.29% -0.35% -0.29% -0.24% CAD 0.20% 0.09% 0.36% 0.29% -0.01% 0.09% 0.16% AUD 0.20% 0.11% 0.37% 0.35% 0.01% 0.12% 0.16% NZD 0.09% 0.00% 0.27% 0.29% -0.09% -0.12% 0.06% CHF 0.04% -0.05% 0.21% 0.24% -0.16% -0.16% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
USD/JPY remains supported above 144.00 as US-China trade talks remain in focus.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s hawkish tilt limits Yen weakness.The US Dollar steadies ahead of Wednesday’s US inflation data, which could contribute to Fed rate bets.The Japanese Yen (JPY) is steadying against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the USD/JPY pair hovering above the 144.00 level in relatively muted trade. With markets focused on US–China trade negotiations and broader risk sentiment, USD/JPY remains sensitive to shifts in both geopolitical developments and interest rate expectations. While the trade talks in London appear to be making progress, a more hawkish tone from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has helped limit further downside in the Yen. On Tuesday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that inflation still has some way to go to sustainably reach the 2% target. Ueda stated that “We will raise interest rates if we have enough confidence that underlying inflation nears 2% or moves around 2%.”Market participants interpreted these remarks as reducing the likelihood of an imminent interest-rate hike.On Wednesday, the next fundamental catalyst on the US economic calendar will be the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May. Expectations are for headline US CPI to rise by 0.2% on a monthly basis. Inflation is expected to increase to 2.5% YoY, from 2.3% in April.The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to show a 0.3% MoM increase in May compared to 0.2% in April. The YoY figure is also estimated to reflect a 0.1% increase, rising to 2.9% compared to 2.8% in April.A hotter-than-expected print could reignite USD strength by reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hold, while a softer number may weigh on the Greenback. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.08% 0.18% 0.12% -0.20% -0.20% -0.09% -0.04% EUR 0.08% 0.27% 0.20% -0.09% -0.11% -0.01% 0.05% GBP -0.18% -0.27% -0.16% -0.36% -0.37% -0.27% -0.21% JPY -0.12% -0.20% 0.16% -0.29% -0.35% -0.29% -0.24% CAD 0.20% 0.09% 0.36% 0.29% -0.01% 0.09% 0.16% AUD 0.20% 0.11% 0.37% 0.35% 0.01% 0.12% 0.16% NZD 0.09% 0.00% 0.27% 0.29% -0.09% -0.12% 0.06% CHF 0.04% -0.05% 0.21% 0.24% -0.16% -0.16% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
17:31 Turkey Treasury Cash Balance climbed from previous -183.5B to 247.125B in May
Turkey Treasury Cash Balance climbed from previous -183.5B to 247.125B in May
17:24 Research China: Green shoots meet trade war – Danske Bank
The Chinese economy saw green shoots in Q1, but the trade war created a new headwind in April, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.
The Chinese economy saw green shoots in Q1, but the trade war created a new headwind in April, Danske Bank's FX analysts report. China’s Q1 recovery faces new trade war headwinds"Still, we leave our growth outlook unchanged as our medium-term scenario for the trade war remains the same with an end game of 40% tariffs on Chinese goods following a long bumpy road of trade talks. Stimulus was pushed forward as expected to counteract tariff effect. We continue to see growth at 4.7% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026.""Over the coming months we expect a pick-up in activity due to front loading of exports during the 90-day trade truce but see activity moderating again after that. Housing and private consumption have improved but lots of work remain to get the two sectors on stronger footing. A growing number of tech milestones have boosted confidence.""The US-China rivalry is set to continue. US tech sanctions keep widening while China retaliates with limits on rare earth exports. Trump's America First policy has led to a thaw in EU-China relations. Tensions remain, though, when it comes to China's rise as a competitor, industrial policy, overcapacity, and China's position on the Ukraine war."
16:32 Oil Price Forecast: WTI crude extends upside above $64.00 on improved US-China relations
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price is trading higher on Tuesday, extending its upward move for the fourth consecutive day, and supported by ongoing optimism around the second day of US–China trade talks in London.
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As the world’s two largest economies, any progress in their trade relationship has a direct impact on global Oil price, influencing demand expectations, supply chain dynamics, and overall market sentiment. Following positive remarks on Monday from US President Donald Trump, who affirmed that he is receiving “good reports” from the meeting, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters that trade talks with China are progressing well. He added that he expects the talks to continue throughout the day, according to Reuters.With reports suggesting both sides are working toward improved trade cooperation, market confidence has lifted, pushing WTI above the $64.00 mark at the time of writing, as traders continue to monitor developments for further direction.US NFIB shows business confidence improving in May, providing an additional boost to Oil priceAdding to the positive tone, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Business Optimism Index for May has indicated an improvement in business confidence among small businesses on Tuesday, providing an additional boost for the Oil price. The index recorded a value of 98.8 in May, surpassing the consensus estimate of 95.9 and showing an increase from April’s reading of 95.8. US API data is expected to show weekly stockpiles increasing by 0.7 million barellsThe American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its Weekly Statistics Bulletin at 20:30 GMT, which is expected to show a 0.7 million barrel increase in stockpiles, following last week's 3.3 million barrel drawdown.This data offers insights into refinery operations and production in the United States, reflecting the state of US stockpiles. If the weekly report misses forecasts and shows that stockpiles are decreasing, reduced supply could drive the Oil price higher. In contrast, an increase in stockpiles could have a negative effect on WTI.WTI Oil price extends gains above $64.00 WTI Oil is extending gains on Tuesday, with prices trading above $64.00 at the time of writing.For the upside move, the $65.00 psychological level remains a key resistance barrier, which could open the door for the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) just below $66.00.With the upside gaining traction over recent days, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stands at 61 in the daily chart, showing strong upward momentum. Toward the downside, a move below $64.00 could see WTI Oil bears step in, with the 20-day SMA providing support at $62.00.WTI Oil daily chart WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
16:20 Reuters poll: BoE to cut interest rate by 25 bps in Q3 and Q4
A large majority of 59 economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut the policy by 25 basis points (bps) in the third quarter and the fourth quarter, bringing down the bank rate to 3.75% from 4.25%, where it currently stands.
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A large majority of 59 economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut the policy by 25 basis points (bps) in the third quarter and the fourth quarter, bringing down the bank rate to 3.75% from 4.25%, where it currently stands.Median expectations of polled economics point to a growth of 1% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.Market reactionGBP/USD rebounds from the weekly low it touched near 1.3450 earlier in the day. At the time of press, the pair was trading at 1.3520, losing about 0.2% on a daily basis. BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
15:56 United States Redbook Index (YoY) dipped from previous 4.9% to 4.7% in June 6
United States Redbook Index (YoY) dipped from previous 4.9% to 4.7% in June 6
15:15 Reuters poll: Fed likely to resume cutting rates in September
59 of 105 economists polled by Reuters said that they expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume cutting interest rates in the next quarter, likely in September.
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59 of 105 economists polled by Reuters said that they expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume cutting interest rates in the next quarter, likely in September.More than 60% of polled economists also said that they see the Fed lowering the policy rate at least twice this year. According to the findings, the US economy is forecast to expand by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.Market reactionThe US Dollar (USD) Index showed no immediate reaction to this headline and was last seen trading flat on the day at 99.00. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
15:00 Brazil IPCA Inflation declined to 0.26% in May from previous 0.43%
Brazil IPCA Inflation declined to 0.26% in May from previous 0.43%
14:43 GBP/JPY slides on softer UK labour market conditions, hawkish BoJ comments
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is strengthening against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, following the release of employment data that suggests the UK economy may be under pressure.
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GBP/JPY falls after weak UK employment figures pressure the Pound Sterling.The Pound suffers from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may be forced to cut rates after the disappointing jobs data.The UK unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, accompanied by an increase in jobless claims.The Japanese Yen (JPY) is strengthening against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, following the release of employment data that suggests the UK economy may be under pressure.After retesting the 196.00 psychological level prior to the release of the UK employment data, GBP/JPY is erasing its recent gains. At the time of writing, the pair is trading near 195.29, a level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the January-April decline.UK employment data reveals labour market weaknessThe United Kingdom’s (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) released a labor market report on Tuesday that indicated a softening in labor conditions. The ILO unemployment rate increased to 4.6% in the three months leading up to April, up from 4.5% reported in the first quarter. While this figure aligned with expectations, it suggests that the labor market is losing some momentum.The Claimant Count Change showed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits increased by 33,100 in May. The data reversed the previous month's revised decline of 21,200 and missed forecasts for a smaller rise of 9,500. Meanwhile, the employment change figure showed a gain of 89,000 jobs in the three months to April, a slowdown from March’s increase of 112,000, further suggesting that job growth is cooling as economic activity moderates.The Employment data signaled a gradual softening in the UK labour market, which could influence the Bank of England’s (BoE) outlook on interest rates. Signs of a softer labor market could add pressure to BoE officials to cut rates.For the GBP/JPY pair, expectations that the BoE may reduce interest rates while the BoJ looks to increase rates could drive prices lower in the near term.On Tuesday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that Japan’s inflation still has some way to go to reach the 2% target. “We will raise interest rates if we have enough confidence that underlying inflation nears 2% or moves around 2%,” Ueda said.Market participants interpreted these remarks as reducing the likelihood of an imminent interest-rate hike. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
GBP/JPY falls after weak UK employment figures pressure the Pound Sterling.The Pound suffers from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may be forced to cut rates after the disappointing jobs data.The UK unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, accompanied by an increase in jobless claims.The Japanese Yen (JPY) is strengthening against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, following the release of employment data that suggests the UK economy may be under pressure.After retesting the 196.00 psychological level prior to the release of the UK employment data, GBP/JPY is erasing its recent gains. At the time of writing, the pair is trading near 195.29, a level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the January-April decline.UK employment data reveals labour market weaknessThe United Kingdom’s (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) released a labor market report on Tuesday that indicated a softening in labor conditions. The ILO unemployment rate increased to 4.6% in the three months leading up to April, up from 4.5% reported in the first quarter. While this figure aligned with expectations, it suggests that the labor market is losing some momentum.The Claimant Count Change showed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits increased by 33,100 in May. The data reversed the previous month's revised decline of 21,200 and missed forecasts for a smaller rise of 9,500. Meanwhile, the employment change figure showed a gain of 89,000 jobs in the three months to April, a slowdown from March’s increase of 112,000, further suggesting that job growth is cooling as economic activity moderates.The Employment data signaled a gradual softening in the UK labour market, which could influence the Bank of England’s (BoE) outlook on interest rates. Signs of a softer labor market could add pressure to BoE officials to cut rates.For the GBP/JPY pair, expectations that the BoE may reduce interest rates while the BoJ looks to increase rates could drive prices lower in the near term.On Tuesday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that Japan’s inflation still has some way to go to reach the 2% target. “We will raise interest rates if we have enough confidence that underlying inflation nears 2% or moves around 2%,” Ueda said.Market participants interpreted these remarks as reducing the likelihood of an imminent interest-rate hike. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
14:33 US Dollar Index falls back amid uncertainty over US-China trade meeting outcome
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, gives back its early gains and flattens around 99.00 during European trading hours on Tuesday.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
14:31 EUR extending consolidation in low1.14s – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is also entering Tuesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the US Dollar (USD) with a modest recovery of mild late Asian/early European session weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Euro (EUR) is also entering Tuesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the US Dollar (USD) with a modest recovery of mild late Asian/early European session weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Anticipating support on fading of ECB’s easing bias"The release of second tier euro area investor confidence data has offered little in terms of price action, and there have been no major releases from either Germany or France. The calendar remains empty for much of this week, leaving the focus squarely centered on the heavy schedule of ECB speakers." "The latest comments from Governing Council member Villeroy summarize our view—that the ECB is reluctantly neutral and likely at its terminal rate for this easing cycle. Villeroy said that the ECB is in a ‘favorable zone’ but that it is not static and GC member Rehn stated that the ECB must be ready to act as and when needed." "We see scope for EUR strength on the back of relative central bank policy as markets fade their expectations for cuts. Markets have softened their expectations for easing but are still pricing a sizeable 26bpts by year end."
14:29 CAD unchanged as FV is flattered by both spreads and oil – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is entering Tuesday’s NA session unchanged from Monday’s close, recovering from mild weakness observed in late Asian / early European trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is entering Tuesday’s NA session unchanged from Monday’s close, recovering from mild weakness observed in late Asian / early European trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Scope for further CAD gains"The recovery in oil prices should offer the CAD support, along with the modest narrowing in interest rate differentials as short term rates markets continue to soften their expectations for BoC easing. Markets have faded about 5bpts of easing priced into their year end expectations for the BoC, and are still pricing 29bpts." "We see scope for further CAD gains as the markets adjust to the BoC’s reluctantly neutral stance. Our FV assessment has been on a steady decline, and is currently at 1.3735. The domestic release calendar is relatively limited, as we await building permits on Wednesday and manufacturing sales and wholesale trade on Friday. The trend is bearish as USD/CAD continues to retrace its September-February rally. " The RSI is bearish at 37 and its current level remains well short of the oversold threshold at 30, leaving ample room for further downside. We look to an extension of the recent weakness and a break of the recent low in the mid1.36s. There are no major retracement levels left ahead of the September low at 1.3420. We look to near-term resistance between 1.3720 and 1.3750 and look to near-term support between 1.3650 and 1.3620.
14:29 Gold steadies on the second day of US-China trade talks
Gold price is lacking conviction on Tuesday, with the precious metal trading in a flat range around $3,334 at the time of writing.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price finds support above $3,300, with resistance forming at $3,350.US-China trade talks continue for the second day in London.The US Dollar remains supported by improved trade relations, which pose a direct threat to Gold’s upside potential.Gold price is lacking conviction on Tuesday, with the precious metal trading in a flat range around $3,334 at the time of writing.Ongoing trade talks between the United States and China continue to influence global risk sentiment, helping to stabilize the US Dollar (USD). As US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick continue discussions with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng for the second day in London, markets remain focused on trade-related developments. Ahead of Tuesday’s meeting, Commerce Secretary Lutnick told reporters that trade talks with China are progressing well and added that he expects the talks to continue throughout the day, according to Reuters.These negotiations are expected to continue influencing the direction of the Gold and US Dollar on Tuesday, as investors weigh the potential for eased tensions and improved economic cooperation between the world’s two largest economies.Gold daily digest: US-China trade talks in London remain the primary focus for marketsOn Monday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council (NEC), added to market optimism in an interview with CNBC, stating, “I expect this to be a short meeting with a firm handshake!”.In a Wall Street Journal comment, Hassett noted that the US anticipates “any export control from the US will be eased and the rare earths will be released in volumes.” Once the more significant issues have been addressed, the US and China are expected to discuss less-urgent matters.Additionally, positive remarks on Monday from US President Donald Trump, affirming that he is getting “good reports” from the meeting, are contributing to keeping market sentiment buoyed.Data released by China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC) on Monday showed that China’s exports to the US decreased by 35% YoY in May. This was the steepest decline since February 2020, when trade was severely disrupted by pandemic-related shutdowns.The expectation that China will release rare earths in volume signals potential relief for the US supply chain. These minerals are crucial for sectors such as technology, defense, and green energy, where they are essential for products like semiconductors, electric vehicles (EVs), and military hardware.These developments are significant not only for geopolitical stability but also for global economic growth forecasts.The next fundamental catalyst on the US economic calendar will be on Wednesday, with the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May. Expectations are for headline US CPI to rise by 0.2% on a monthly basis. Inflation is expected to increase to 2.5% YoY, from 2.3% in April.The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to show a 0.3% MoM increase in May compared to 0.2% in April. The YoY figure is also estimated to reflect a 0.1% increase, rising to 2.9% compared to 2.8% in April.The inflation data is an important contributor to interest rate expectations, which drive the direction of the USD and the Gold price. Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report (NFP), which showed the US economy added more jobs than anticipated in May (139,000 vs. an estimated 130,000), helped ease USD weakness, placing less pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in the near term. With stronger employment data increasing the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates weighs on the non-yielding Gold price, which is inversely correlated with the Greenback.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged within the current 4.25% to 4.50% range at the June and July meeting, with a 54.7% probability of a rate cut priced in for September.Gold technical analysis: XAU/USD stalls above moving average supportGold price is currently holding above the $3,300 mark, hovering around $3,330 at the time of writing, as the market finds short-term support in this range. On the upside, resistance is forming near the psychological level of $3,350, and a break above this barrier could open the door for a move toward Friday’s high near $3,375. Further up, the $3,392 resistance level limited the bullish potential last week, followed by the $3,400 psychological level. If buyers clear this zone and bullish momentum gains traction, a move toward the April all-time high at $3,500 may be possible.However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator flattens near the neutral zone of 50 in the daily chart, signalling a lack of momentum and indecision among traders.In the event of a downside move, the immediate support for the Gold price is at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,303, just above the next psychological support zone of $3,300, and ahead of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April rise at $3,291.The 50-day SMA could then provide an additional layer of support around $3,270, while the tip of a symmetrical triangle chart pattern could provide another important barrier for downside price action at $3,240.Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
14:29 EUR/GBP explores one-month highs above 0.8460 with the Pound on the defensive
The Euro is rallying against a weaker Pound on Tuesday, with bulls pushing against the top of last month’s trading range, at 0.8460, favoured by weak UK employment figures and positive data from the Eurozone.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}High UK unemployment and low wage growth figures are weighing on the Pound.The Euro is drawing support from upbeat Eurozone data and hawkish ECB speak.The pair is testing the neckline of an inverted H&S, at 0.8460.The Euro is rallying against a weaker Pound on Tuesday, with bulls pushing against the top of last month’s trading range, at 0.8460, favoured by weak UK employment figures and positive data from the Eurozone.
Data from the UK released earlier on Tuesday revealed that the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.6% in May , its highest level in four years, with claimants of jobless benefits increasing by 33.1K in May, more than three times the 9.5K increment foreseen by market analysts.
Beyond that, wage growth slowed to 5.2%, from the 5.5% growth posted in April, below the 5.4% reading anticipated by the market consensus. These figures pave the path for the Bank of England to ease monetary policy further, and have pushed the GBP lower across the board.
Eurozone data, on the other hand, has beaten expectations with Investors' confidence reaching one-year highs and Italian Industrial Production growing well beyond forecasts. Apart from that, hawkish comments from ECB’s Rehn and Villeroy have provided additional support to the Euro.Technical analysis: EUR/GBP testing the neckline of a bullish H&SFrom a technical standpoint, the pair is about testing a previous support, now turned resistance, and the neckline of an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, at the 0.8450-0.8460 level.
The measured target of the H&S pattern is at the 0.8540 area, which is coincident with the April 25, 30, and May 2 highs. Above here, the next target is the April 21 high, at 0.8620.
On the downside, a bearish reaction below 0.8360 cancels this view and increases pressure towards 0.8325 (April 3 low) and the key 0.8245 year-to-date low.EUR/GBP 4-Hour Chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Data from the UK released earlier on Tuesday revealed that the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.6% in May , its highest level in four years, with claimants of jobless benefits increasing by 33.1K in May, more than three times the 9.5K increment foreseen by market analysts.
Beyond that, wage growth slowed to 5.2%, from the 5.5% growth posted in April, below the 5.4% reading anticipated by the market consensus. These figures pave the path for the Bank of England to ease monetary policy further, and have pushed the GBP lower across the board.
Eurozone data, on the other hand, has beaten expectations with Investors' confidence reaching one-year highs and Italian Industrial Production growing well beyond forecasts. Apart from that, hawkish comments from ECB’s Rehn and Villeroy have provided additional support to the Euro.Technical analysis: EUR/GBP testing the neckline of a bullish H&SFrom a technical standpoint, the pair is about testing a previous support, now turned resistance, and the neckline of an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, at the 0.8450-0.8460 level.
The measured target of the H&S pattern is at the 0.8540 area, which is coincident with the April 25, 30, and May 2 highs. Above here, the next target is the April 21 high, at 0.8620.
On the downside, a bearish reaction below 0.8360 cancels this view and increases pressure towards 0.8325 (April 3 low) and the key 0.8245 year-to-date low.EUR/GBP 4-Hour Chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
14:26 USD: FX markets in holding pattern awaiting fresh catalyst – Scotiabank
Currency markets are generally quiet as we move into Tuesday’s NA session. All of the G10 currencies are trading in a relatively tight range, with the exception of GBP as it underperforms on the back of a weaker domestic employment release.
Currency markets are generally quiet as we move into Tuesday’s NA session. All of the G10 currencies are trading in a relatively tight range, with the exception of GBP as it underperforms on the back of a weaker domestic employment release. Markets are waiting for a catalyst as the US and China continue their second day of talks in London, and preliminary reports appear constructive, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD quietly consolidating as markets await resolution of US/China talks"The holding pattern is apparent across most asset markets, as we note a tight consolidation in US equity futures at fresh local highs — and just two percent shy of their record from mid-February. The US 10Y yield has pulled back modestly from the 4.50% level it had reached in the aftermath of last week’s payrolls, and the German 10Y yield is fading back to the lower end of its recent range and drifting toward 2.50%." "In commodities, oil prices are well supported as WTI ignores recent OPEC developments and concerns about Saudi-driven oversupply to extend its recovery above $65/bbl to reach fresh local highs. Copper prices are quietly consolidating at the upper end of their recent range as gold prices consolidate in the middle of the flat range that has defined its price action since reaching its record high in April." "In terms of data, the US NFIB small business optimism release delivered a better than expected recovery, printing its first m/m gain following a steady run of deterioration since December. The US calendar is empty ahead of Wednesday’s CPI release, leaving the focus squarely centered on headline risk as the Fed is in its quiet period ahead of next Wednesday’s policy meeting."
14:23 USD/JPY pulls back after briefly breaching 145.00 as BOJ reaffirms caution – Société Générale
USD/JPY briefly breached the psychologically significant 145.00 level before pulling back, as dovish remarks from BOJ Governor Ueda reinforced market expectations for a slow and cautious policy normalization.
USD/JPY briefly breached the psychologically significant 145.00 level before pulling back, as dovish remarks from BOJ Governor Ueda reinforced market expectations for a slow and cautious policy normalization. Despite some inflation gauges exceeding BOJ projections, underlying inflation remains subdued, limiting the urgency for rate hikes, Société Générale's FX analysts note. BOJ’s Ueda sees no rush to tighten"USD/JPY edged up briefly above 145.00 before retracing part of its gains. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled there was no rush for the bank to resume tightening policy because underlying inflation remains below 2%. Ueda is referring to CPI (all items less food and energy) which has remained more or less flat, between 1.5% y/y and 1.6% y/y this year (chart below).""In contrast, CPI (all items less fresh food and energy) increased to 3% y/y in April and is tracking above the BOJ’s 2025 forecast of 2.3%. Regardless, the swaps market still implies only 50bps of BOJ rate hikes over the next two years and the policy rate to peak at 1.00%. The BOJ’s cautious normalization cycle is an ongoing headwind for JPY."
14:04 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD approaches resistance at $3,340
Gold (XAU/USD) has reversed course durub¡ng the European trading session on Tuesday, and is showing moderate gains, approaching resistance at $3,340 as the Dollar gives away gains with optimism about the outcome of the US-China meeting wearing off.seemsA mild enthusiasm on the back of the positive c
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Gold has reversed course and is trading higher for the second day in a row.Investors' optimism about a positive outcome of the US-China talks is fading.XAU/USD is likely to face resistance at $3,340 and $3,370.Gold (XAU/USD) has reversed course durub¡ng the European trading session on Tuesday, and is showing moderate gains, approaching resistance at $3,340 as the Dollar gives away gains with optimism about the outcome of the US-China meeting wearing off.
seems
A mild enthusiasm on the back of the positive comments from President Trump and US representatives regarding the developments of the negotiation seems to have faded, as the meeting extends for the second day. The US Dollar is giving away gains with investors turning more cautious, boosting demand for safe havens like Gold.
Investors are trimming their US Dollar longs, increasingly cautious about the outcome of the negotiations between the world’s two major economies, amid the lack of progress on trade deals. So far, only the UK has reached a rather modest one, while the clock ticks closer to the July 9 deadline.Technical analysis: XAU/USD bearish trend is losing momentumThe broader trend remains negative, with the precious metal correcting lower following a rally from May 15 lows. Intraday charts, however, show a bullish reaction from $3,290, which looks likely to extend beyond the previous support, now turned resistance at $3,340.,
Elliott Wave analysts would say that the pair has confirmed the completion of a bullish cycle and is on a three-wave correction. In this case, we would be on the A-B leg, which might extend to the reverse trendline, now at $3,370, before extending lower.
On the downside, supports are at the June 9 low, $3,290, and the May 15 and 19 highs, and May 29 lows at $3,245.XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart
US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% 0.34% 0.01% -0.00% 0.05% 0.00% -0.06% EUR -0.00% 0.35% 0.00% 0.03% 0.07% 0.00% -0.04% GBP -0.34% -0.35% -0.41% -0.33% -0.28% -0.35% -0.38% JPY -0.01% 0.00% 0.41% 0.00% -0.01% -0.10% -0.16% CAD 0.00% -0.03% 0.33% -0.00% 0.03% -0.02% -0.06% AUD -0.05% -0.07% 0.28% 0.00% -0.03% -0.04% -0.12% NZD 0.00% -0.00% 0.35% 0.10% 0.02% 0.04% -0.04% CHF 0.06% 0.04% 0.38% 0.16% 0.06% 0.12% 0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). resistance
seems
A mild enthusiasm on the back of the positive comments from President Trump and US representatives regarding the developments of the negotiation seems to have faded, as the meeting extends for the second day. The US Dollar is giving away gains with investors turning more cautious, boosting demand for safe havens like Gold.
Investors are trimming their US Dollar longs, increasingly cautious about the outcome of the negotiations between the world’s two major economies, amid the lack of progress on trade deals. So far, only the UK has reached a rather modest one, while the clock ticks closer to the July 9 deadline.Technical analysis: XAU/USD bearish trend is losing momentumThe broader trend remains negative, with the precious metal correcting lower following a rally from May 15 lows. Intraday charts, however, show a bullish reaction from $3,290, which looks likely to extend beyond the previous support, now turned resistance at $3,340.,
Elliott Wave analysts would say that the pair has confirmed the completion of a bullish cycle and is on a three-wave correction. In this case, we would be on the A-B leg, which might extend to the reverse trendline, now at $3,370, before extending lower.
On the downside, supports are at the June 9 low, $3,290, and the May 15 and 19 highs, and May 29 lows at $3,245.XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart
US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% 0.34% 0.01% -0.00% 0.05% 0.00% -0.06% EUR -0.00% 0.35% 0.00% 0.03% 0.07% 0.00% -0.04% GBP -0.34% -0.35% -0.41% -0.33% -0.28% -0.35% -0.38% JPY -0.01% 0.00% 0.41% 0.00% -0.01% -0.10% -0.16% CAD 0.00% -0.03% 0.33% -0.00% 0.03% -0.02% -0.06% AUD -0.05% -0.07% 0.28% 0.00% -0.03% -0.04% -0.12% NZD 0.00% -0.00% 0.35% 0.10% 0.02% 0.04% -0.04% CHF 0.06% 0.04% 0.38% 0.16% 0.06% 0.12% 0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). resistance
14:00 South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) dipped from previous -0.8% to -6.3% in April
South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) dipped from previous -0.8% to -6.3% in April
13:56 USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a range of 7.1700/7.1900 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 7.1700/7.1900 against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, USD has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 7.1700/7.1900 against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, USD has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD has likely moved back into a range trading phase24-HOUR VIEW: "Following last Friday’s price action, we indicated yesterday that 'a slight increase in upward momentum may lead to a test of 7.2000.' Our view did not turn out as expected, as USD traded in a quiet manner between 7.1796 and 7.1899, closing largely unchanged at 7.1839 (-0.08%). The price action provides no fresh clues, and USD is likely to trade in a range of 7.1700/7.1900 today." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (09 Jun, spot at 7.1870). As highlighted, the recent 'mild downward momentum has eased, and USD has likely moved back into a range trading phase, probably between 7.1620 and 7.2200'.”
13:50 CNY: Record surplus and deflation – Commerzbank
According to Bloomberg, Chinese exports rose by 4.8% year-on-year in US dollar terms in May, which was slightly below the consensus forecast of 6%. However, imports fell much more sharply than expected, declining by 3.4% year-on-year.
According to Bloomberg, Chinese exports rose by 4.8% year-on-year in US dollar terms in May, which was slightly below the consensus forecast of 6%. However, imports fell much more sharply than expected, declining by 3.4% year-on-year. Consequently, the Chinese economy recorded a foreign trade surplus of over 100 billion US Dollars in May. The rolling sum for the past 12 months increased to 1.13 trillion US dollars, setting a new record. Calculated in CNY, the trade surplus was 743 billion, the third-highest figure ever, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. CNY to weaken over the coming months"Relative to gross domestic product (GDP), the 12-month rolling sum of the surplus thus rose to 5.4%, almost one percentage point higher than in May last year. Consequently, Chinese growth remains heavily dependent on foreign trade. Inflation figures published on Monday also point to continued weakness in domestic demand. According to these figures, producer prices fell by 3.3% year-on-year in May, which is a sharper fall than in previous months. This marks the 32nd consecutive month of year-on-year falls in producer prices.""Consumer prices are not quite as affected, but the CPI was also in negative territory for the fourth consecutive month, falling by 0.1%. Compared to the previous month, prices fell by 0.2%. However, on a positive note, the decline in consumer prices is largely due to falling energy and food prices. Excluding these, the core rate is currently stable at 0.6% compared to the previous year. This suggests that the core rate has stabilised in recent months, having fallen almost continuously since 2018.""Overall, Monday's figures show that the Chinese economy, and domestic demand in particular, remains under pressure. Consequently, interest rates are likely to remain low, and monetary policy could be eased further, which should put pressure on the currency. Despite the CNY's current temporary strength and the lower USD/CNY exchange rate, I still expect the CNY to weaken over the coming months."
13:48 USD/JPY: Likely to consolidate in a range of 144.00/145.00 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to consolidate in a range of 144.00/145.00. In the longer run, increase in momentum is not sufficient to indicate a sustained advance just yet; USD must first break and hold above 145.50, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to consolidate in a range of 144.00/145.00. In the longer run, increase in momentum is not sufficient to indicate a sustained advance just yet; USD must first break and hold above 145.50, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Increase in momentum is not sufficient to indicate a sustained advance24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected USD to 'consolidate in a 144.00/145.15 range' yesterday. USD then rose to 144.94, dropped to 143.96, before rebounding to close modestly lower by 0.19% at 144.58. The price action still appears to be part of a consolidation phase. Today, we expect USD to trade in a range of 144.00/145.00." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Wednesday (04 Jun, spot at 143.85), we stated that 'the recent price action suggests USD is still trading in a range, most likely between 142.10 and 145.50.' On Friday, USD soared to a high of 145.08. Yesterday (09 Jun, spot at 144.70), we indicated that the increase in upward momentum is not sufficient to indicate a sustained advance just yet.' However, we pointed out that 'if USD were to break and hold above 145.50, it could potentially trigger a strong recovery.' The likelihood of USD breaking clearly above 145.50 will remain intact as long as the ‘strong support’ at 143.30 (level previously at 143.00) is not breached."
13:46 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds to near $36.70, US-China trade talks in focus
Silver price (XAG/USD) claws back initial losses and rebounds to near $36.70 from the intraday low of $36.30 during European trading hours on Tuesday.
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Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
13:38 US labour market: everything remains different – Commerzbank
Commerzbank's position with regard to the unemployment rate is very similar to last year's and currently stands at 4.2%, having changed very little in recent months. A year ago, it was 4.0%, rising only very slowly in the preceding months.
Commerzbank's position with regard to the unemployment rate is very similar to last year's and currently stands at 4.2%, having changed very little in recent months. A year ago, it was 4.0%, rising only very slowly in the preceding months. The number of new jobs created has slowed significantly, however. A year ago, the three-month moving average was 185,000. However, on Friday, only 139,000 new jobs were reported, bringing the three-month average down to 135,000. And the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages suggests that the number of new jobs created may be revised significantly downward again, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Fed unlikely to see reason to cut its key interest rate by 100 bp"This suggests that, although significantly fewer new jobs are being created than last year, this is not currently affecting the unemployment rate. This is probably because the number of Americans of working age is growing much more slowly than last year, which seems entirely plausible given the change in immigration policy.""Consequently, in the coming months, the market is likely to focus more on the unemployment rate and the development of average hourly wages than on the number of new jobs created. Firstly, the unemployment rate is not revised in the same way as the number of new jobs created. Secondly, the Fed is primarily concerned with how tight the labour market is. After all, full employment is part of its remit. However, there is no target figure for new jobs created.""If the labour supply is growing significantly more slowly, the Fed can easily tolerate lower figures for new jobs. Since the unemployment rate has hardly changed in recent months and is rising only very slowly if at all, the Fed is unlikely to see much reason to cut its key interest rate by 100 basis points any time soon. Even if the number of new jobs is significantly lower."
13:21 EUR/NOK pulls back from multi-year highs – Société Générale
EUR/NOK is retreating after failing to break above the key resistance zone of 12.05–12.12, marking last year's highs. The pair has established a short-term floor near 11.43 but lacks momentum for a strong rebound.
EUR/NOK is retreating after failing to break above the key resistance zone of 12.05–12.12, marking last year's highs. The pair has established a short-term floor near 11.43 but lacks momentum for a strong rebound. With the 200-DMA at 11.71–11.73 acting as resistance, a sustained failure to breach this level could see further downside toward the April low at 11.25, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Failure at 12.05–12.12 caps EUR/NOK rally"EUR/NOK failed to establish itself beyond last year highs and graphical hurdle of 12.05/12.12 resulting in a gradual pullback. It has carved out an interim low near 11.43. The pair is evolving within a brief pause however signals of a large up move are not yet visible." "The 200-DMA at 11.71/11.73 is a short-term resistance. Inability to cross this hurdle can lead to persistence in decline; projections at 11.31/11.25, which also represents April low could be the next support zone."
13:19 USD/JPY hesitates above 144.50 with investors awaiting news about tariffs
The US Dollar is trading without a clear bias, for the second consecutive day, against the Japanese Yen.
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The US Dollar is trading without a clear bias, for the second consecutive day, against the Japanese Yen. The Doji candles in the daily chart highlight investors’ reluctance to place directional bets as US and Chinese representatives negotiate a trade deal.
Positive comments from US President Trump and Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett, are keeping hopes of a satisfactory outcome alive, but traders are looking from the sidelines, awaiting news of more concrete advances.
The world’s two largest economies are looking to return to the spirit og last week’s meeting in Geneva, which led to a significant reduction of their reciprocal tariffs. This time, however, a deal requires concessions in thorny aspects, such as rare earths trade or chip exports.
In Japan, BOJ Governour Ueda affirmed that the Bank will hike rates again when they are confident that inflation is nearing 2%, which casts doubt about further monetary tightening in the coming months, and added bearish pressure on the Japanese Yen.
These comments have offset investors’ optimism about a better-than-expected Japanese Gross Domestic Product remained flat in Q1 following a 0.2% contraction in the previous quarter, and beating expectations of another 0.2% economic slowdown. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The US Dollar is trading without a clear bias, for the second consecutive day, against the Japanese Yen. The Doji candles in the daily chart highlight investors’ reluctance to place directional bets as US and Chinese representatives negotiate a trade deal.
Positive comments from US President Trump and Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett, are keeping hopes of a satisfactory outcome alive, but traders are looking from the sidelines, awaiting news of more concrete advances.
The world’s two largest economies are looking to return to the spirit og last week’s meeting in Geneva, which led to a significant reduction of their reciprocal tariffs. This time, however, a deal requires concessions in thorny aspects, such as rare earths trade or chip exports.
In Japan, BOJ Governour Ueda affirmed that the Bank will hike rates again when they are confident that inflation is nearing 2%, which casts doubt about further monetary tightening in the coming months, and added bearish pressure on the Japanese Yen.
These comments have offset investors’ optimism about a better-than-expected Japanese Gross Domestic Product remained flat in Q1 following a 0.2% contraction in the previous quarter, and beating expectations of another 0.2% economic slowdown. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
13:15 NZD/USD: Chance to test the 0.6070 level before levelling off – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may test the 0.6070 level before levelling off against US Dollar (USD); the major resistance at 0.6095 is likely out of reach.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may test the 0.6070 level before levelling off against US Dollar (USD); the major resistance at 0.6095 is likely out of reach. In the longer run, upward momentum remains largely unchanged, but there is a chance for NZD to test 0.6095, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. The major resistance at 0.6095 is likely out of reach24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we held the view that 'the current price movements are likely part of a 0.6000/0.6045 range trading phase.' Our view was incorrect, as NZD rose to a high of 0.6066. While there has been no significant increase in momentum, NZD may test the 0.6070 level before levelling off. The major resistance at 0.6095 is likely out of reach. Support levels are at 0.6035 and 0.6020." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our NZD view to positive last Tuesday (03 Jun, spot at 0.6040), indicating that 'the rapid buildup in upward momentum indicates further NZD strength, and the level to monitor is 0.6095.' After NZD rose to 0.6088, we highlighted last Friday (06 Jun, spot at 0.6045) that upward momentum remains largely unchanged, but as long as 0.5985 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached, there is a chance for NZD to test 0.6095.' We continue to hold the same view, but we are revising the ‘strong support’ level to 0.6000 from 0.5985."
13:10 US and China to continue talks today – Commerzbank
On Monday, representatives from the US and China met in London for trade talks. Prior to the meeting, it was reported that Chinese exports had increased by 5.4% in May. However, exports to the US slumped by over 34%, marking the sharpest decline since the start of the pandemic.
On Monday, representatives from the US and China met in London for trade talks. Prior to the meeting, it was reported that Chinese exports had increased by 5.4% in May. However, exports to the US slumped by over 34%, marking the sharpest decline since the start of the pandemic. The reduction in additional tariffs on Chinese exports to the US from 145 to 30 percentage points on 12 May was apparently too late to prevent this significant decline, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. International trade may remain erratic in the near term"The US government is planning to withdraw or soften a number of export restrictions on US technologies in order to regain full access to rare earths and their products from China. Following the escalation of the trade dispute in early April (after Liberation Day), China introduced a licensing procedure for the global export of seven rare earths and their products. This led to a decline in exports, particularly of permanent magnets. In May, China reported a year-on-year decline of 5.7% in exports of rare earths, their compounds, and products, although this figure is an improvement on April's.""Yesterday's talks ended without a resolution, but the parties intend to meet again in London at 10 a.m. British time today. Therefore, it is quite possible that a deal will be reached today that provides for the recent restrictions to be relaxed. It is also possible that US export restrictions introduced under the Biden administration will be withdrawn. This is likely to benefit the US dollar in the short term. However, one should not be fooled by such a minor deal." "Even after today, the environment for international trade will be worse than before the current US president took office in January. Looking ahead, it is also likely that the political environment for international trade will remain erratic, and could continue to deteriorate structurally from an economic liberal perspective. This will likely contribute to continued high volatility on the currency market."
13:00 AUD/USD: Potential for AUD to test 0.6535 – UOB Group
There is potential for AUD to test 0.6535; mild momentum suggests a clear break above this level is unlikely. In the longer run, bias remains on the upside, but it remains to be seen if AUD can break clearly above 0.6555, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
There is potential for AUD to test 0.6535; mild momentum suggests a clear break above this level is unlikely. In the longer run, bias remains on the upside, but it remains to be seen if AUD can break clearly above 0.6555, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. A clear break above 0.6535 is unlikely24-HOUR VIEW: "We noted yesterday that 'momentum indicators are mostly flat, and further sideways trading appears likely today, probably in a range of 0.6480/0.6520.' However, AUD edged to a high of 0.6533 before easing to close at 0.6518 (+0.35%). There has been a slight increase in momentum. Today, there is potential for AUD to test 0.6535. Given the current mild momentum, a clear break above this level is unlikely. The major resistance at 0.6555 is also unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 0.6500; a breach of 0.6485 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Tuesday (03 Jun, spot at 0.6490), we highlighted that the recent 'price action suggests AUD could continue to rise and test the significant resistance level at 0.6540.' After AUD rose to 0.6538, we highlighted last Friday (06 Jun, spot at 0.6510) that 'the bias remains on the upside, but it remains to be seen if AUD can break clearly above 0.6555.' Our narratives remain unchanged. Overall, only a breach of 0.6470 (‘strong support’ level previously at 0.6455) would mean that the upside bias has faded."
13:00 United States NFIB Business Optimism Index registered at 98.8 above expectations (95.9) in May
United States NFIB Business Optimism Index registered at 98.8 above expectations (95.9) in May
12:51 USD: Focus on the $58bn 3-year auction – ING
Examining FX performance from both a spot and total return perspective over the last month reveals a bloc of four currencies that stand out. These are the Norwegian Krone, the Pound Sterling and the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. What does GBO have in common with these commodity currencies?
Examining FX performance from both a spot and total return perspective over the last month reveals a bloc of four currencies that stand out. These are the Norwegian Krone, the Pound Sterling and the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. What does GBO have in common with these commodity currencies? High yields. Like the krone, sterling offers implied yields over 4% per annum. This is important because, by nature of the Fed's prolonged pause, the dollar also has yields at over 4% p.a. and taking a short position against the dollar will prove expensive unless investors get the timing right, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Any good news is probably a USD positive"Friday's US jobs data did not unleash another wave of pessimism on the US economy, and this week's US data calendar is light apart from tomorrow's release of May's CPI – which is expected at orderly/soft levels. Importantly, it doesn't seem that merely soft price data is enough to restart the Fed easing cycle. For instance, the Fed is probably looking at a 5-year, 5-year USD inflation swap and noting it at a very comfortable 2.5% – portraying no signs of recessionary/deflationary fears.""On the radar, however, is tonight's $58bn 3-year Treasury auction. If there is growing interest in the de-dollarisation story, foreigners (who own around 25% of the outstanding Treasury supply) perhaps do not roll maturing Treasury holdings into new issues. The focus therefore will be on the indirect bid at the auction and also the general gauge of auction success, such as the bid-to-cover ratio and the tail. A poor auction could rekindle the weaker dollar story, where a pair like USD/JPY could lead the dollar lower in a more difficult environment for risk.""There doesn't seem to be a big catalyst for DXY to move outside a tight 98.80 to 99.40 range today. However, look out for any updates on US-China trade talks. Any good news is probably a dollar positive in the current environment."
12:46 US Commerce Sec. Lutnick: Talks with China are going well
United States (US) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters on Tuesday that trade talks with China are going well and added that he expects talks to continue all day, per Reuters.
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United States (US) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters on Tuesday that trade talks with China are going well and added that he expects talks to continue all day, per Reuters.Market reactionThis headline failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction. At the time of press, the US Dollar (USD) Index was up 0.1% on the day at 99.10.Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade mixed in the European session. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed flat and the S&P 500 Index gained 0.1%. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
12:45 AUD/USD trades flat above 0.6500, investors await US-China trade talks outcome
The AUD/USD pair flattens around 0.6500 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The Aussie pair trades in a tight range as investors have sidelined, awaiting the outcome of trade talks between the United States (US) and China in London, which started on Monday.
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The Aussie pair trades in a tight range as investors have sidelined, awaiting the outcome of trade talks between the United States (US) and China in London, which started on Monday.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks up to near 99.15.High-stake trade talks between the US and China are expected impact the US Dollar significantly, which has been battered in past few months. Investors doubted the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar as market experts warned that the implementation of new economic policies by US President Donald Trump could result in economic shockwaves.A positive outcome from trade negotiations between the US and China would bring some certainty in come US economic outlook, allowing businesses to strategize their expansion plans.On the economic front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be released on Wednesday. According to estimates, the US headline and core CPI grew at a faster pace of 2.5% and 2.9%, respectively.Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades calmly amid US-China trade talks. The Aussie Dollar will also be impacted by the Sino-US meeting outcome, given that Australia is the leading trading partner of China.On the domestic front, investors await one-year Consumer Inflation Expectations data for June, which will be released on Thursday. The forward inflation data will influence market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy outlook. In May, the inflation data came in at 4.1%. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
12:42 Germany 5-y Note Auction up to 2.14% from previous 2.07%
Germany 5-y Note Auction up to 2.14% from previous 2.07%
12:37 GBP/USD: There is a chance for GBP to retest 1.3615 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a range of 1.3530/1.3585 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, there is a chance for GBP to retest 1.3615 before the risk of a more sustained and sizeable pullback increases, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a range of 1.3530/1.3585 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, there is a chance for GBP to retest 1.3615 before the risk of a more sustained and sizeable pullback increases, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Chance of reaching 1.3615 is still on the cards24-HOUR VIEW: "Last Friday, GBP dropped to 1.3508 before rebounding. Yesterday, when GBP was at 1.3540, we indicated that “despite the decline, there has been no clear increase in downward momentum, and GBP is unlikely to weaken much further.” We were of the view that GBP “is more likely to trade in a 1.3515/1.3575 range.” Our view was not wrong, as GBP rose slightly above 1.3575 (high of 1.3582), pulled back to 1.3527, and then recovered to end the day at 1.3550. The price movements still appear to be part of a range trading phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade in a range of 1.3530/1.3585." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have maintained a positive outlook on GBP since early last week (as annotated in the chart below). After GBP fell to a low of 1.3508 last Friday, we indicated yesterday (09 Jun, spot at 1.3540) that 'the price action has led to a slowdown in momentum, but as long as 1.3500 is not breached, there is a chance for GBP to retest 1.3615 before the risk of a more sustained and sizeable pullback increases.' We maintain our view for now."
12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $36.52 per troy ounce, down 0.65% from the $36.76 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have increased by 26.38% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 36.52 1 Gram 1.17
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 91.13 on Tuesday, up from 90.48 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 91.13 on Tuesday, up from 90.48 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:20 GBP: Dovish tilt to today's UK labour market data – ING
Sterling is fractionally softer on this morning's UK labour market data for April and May, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Sterling is fractionally softer on this morning's UK labour market data for April and May, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.BoE is well behind the ECB in its easing cycle"On the face of it, it is a fairly dovish UK jobs report this morning. Wages are down more than expected – private sector at 5.1% YoY. These were due to come lower anyway as a result of base effects, but this is a bigger drop. More eye-catching is the sharp fall in payrolled employees at -109k. That would be the biggest monthly drop outside of the Covid-19 pandemic since the data series began in 2014." "But this data always gets revised, and more often than not, it is revised up. For example, in March, the initial reading was -78k, and it has since been revised to -35k. Still, there is clearly a more negative flavour to these numbers over the past few months, and it reinforces the need to keep cutting rates, else the Bank of England risks slipping behind the curve.""This softer data comes at a time when sterling's relatively high yield is in demand. It has, however, triggered a 20 pip rally in EUR/GBP to 0.8435 and could prove a reminder that the BoE is well behind the ECB in its easing cycle, and the policy spread may narrow some 100-125bp against sterling over the next 12-18 months. 0.8445/60 looks like important short-term resistance for EUR/GBP."
12:14 GBP/USD: Labour market data today – OCBC
Pound Sterling (GBP) continued to hover near recent highs amid broad US Dollar (USD) softness while Euro (EUR)’s rally had spillover effects. Pair was last at 1.3489, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Pound Sterling (GBP) continued to hover near recent highs amid broad US Dollar (USD) softness while Euro (EUR)’s rally had spillover effects. Pair was last at 1.3489, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Corrective pullback not ruled out"While better than expected data (reflected in recent GDP, retail sales, PMI data) has been supportive of GBP’s rally, this week’s labour market data (Tue), IP, GDP, trade data on Thu as well as the S&P, KPMG, REC UK joint report on jobs (Fri) will be key. A stronger print should continue to solidify GBP’s rebound momentum, but a softer data outcome may dent the momentum." "Daily momentum shows signs of turning mild bearish while RSI fell. Corrective pullback not ruled out. Support at 1.3440/60 levels (previous double top, now turned support, 21 DMA), 1.33 (50 DMA). Resistance at 1.3620, 1.3750 levels. We look for opportunity on dips to buy into.
12:10 EUR/CAD Price Forecast: Maintains position near 1.5650, support appears at nine-day EMA
EUR/CAD holds losses after experiencing consolidation, trading near 1.5640 during European hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis on the daily chart points to the weakening of a bearish bias, with the currency cross attempting to break above the upper boundary of the descending channel.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/CAD may break above the descending channel, which could cause the emergence of a bullish bias.The 14-day Relative Strength Index remains below the 50 level, suggesting the bearish bias is active.The nine-day Exponential Moving Average of 1.5635 acts as the immediate support.EUR/CAD holds losses after experiencing consolidation, trading near 1.5640 during European hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis on the daily chart points to the weakening of a bearish bias, with the currency cross attempting to break above the upper boundary of the descending channel.The EUR/CAD cross remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which suggests that short-term price momentum is stronger. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below the 50 level, suggesting the bearish bias is active.On the upside, a break above the descending channel may cause the emergence of a bullish bias and support the EUR/CAD cross to explore the region around 1.5857, the highest level since July 2020, reached on March 11.The immediate support appears at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.5635, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.5597. A break below these levels could weaken the short- and medium-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the EUR/CAD cross, navigating the area around the descending channel’s lower boundary around 1.5270.EUR/CAD: Daily Chart Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.10% 0.45% 0.04% 0.04% 0.07% 0.11% -0.09% EUR -0.10% 0.36% -0.07% -0.04% -0.01% 0.01% -0.17% GBP -0.45% -0.36% -0.49% -0.39% -0.37% -0.34% -0.51% JPY -0.04% 0.07% 0.49% 0.02% -0.01% -0.01% -0.21% CAD -0.04% 0.04% 0.39% -0.02% 0.01% 0.05% -0.12% AUD -0.07% 0.01% 0.37% 0.01% -0.01% 0.05% -0.15% NZD -0.11% -0.01% 0.34% 0.01% -0.05% -0.05% -0.17% CHF 0.09% 0.17% 0.51% 0.21% 0.12% 0.15% 0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
12:08 China’s Central Bank adds more Gold in May – ING
China’s central bank added Gold to its reserves for a seventh consecutive month in May. The People’s Bank of China added 60,000 troy ounces of Gold to its reserves last month, taking the total to 73.83 million troy ounces, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
China’s central bank added Gold to its reserves for a seventh consecutive month in May. The People’s Bank of China added 60,000 troy ounces of Gold to its reserves last month, taking the total to 73.83 million troy ounces, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Copper concentrate imports up 7% YoY"In industrial metals, preliminary trade data from China’s Customs showed imports for unwrought Copper fell 2.9% MoM and 16.2% YoY to 427.2kt. Similarly, cumulative imports were down 6.3% YoY, totalling around 2.2mt in the first five months of the year. Copper concentrate imports decreased 18% MoM to 2.4mt in May, despite smelters sustaining output levels. On a year-to-date basis, Copper concentrate imports totalled 12.4mt for the first five months, up 7% YoY.""In ferrous metals, monthly iron ore imports fell 3.8% YoY (-4.9% MoM) to 98.1mt. The drop reflects mills reducing purchasing activity ahead of an expected seasonal downturn in domestic steel consumption. China’s cumulative iron ore imports fell 5.3% YoY to 486.6mt over the first five months of the year." "On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium products shipments fell 5.1% YoY to 2.4mt in the first five months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 8.6% YoY to 48.5mt during Jan’25-May’25."
12:00 Spain 9-Month Letras Auction fell from previous 2% to 1.934%
Spain 9-Month Letras Auction fell from previous 2% to 1.934%
12:00 Spain 3-Month Letras Auction fell from previous 1.976% to 1.873%
Spain 3-Month Letras Auction fell from previous 1.976% to 1.873%
12:00 Greece Industrial Production (YoY) dipped from previous 1.7% to -4.3% in April
Greece Industrial Production (YoY) dipped from previous 1.7% to -4.3% in April
12:00 Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY): 3.3% (May) vs 2.6%
Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY): 3.3% (May) vs 2.6%
12:00 Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.5% (May) vs 2%
Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.5% (May) vs 2%
11:55 USD/CAD trims losses but remains capped below 1.3735
The Canadian Dollar is losing ground for the third consecutive day, with its US counterpart favoured by a moderate optimism about the outcome of the Sino-US trade talks.
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The Greenback is showing a mild bullish tone on Tuesday, buoyed by the positive comments by US President Trump regarding the US-China trade talks as representatives from the world’s two major economies meet for a second day, aiming to normalise their trade relationships.
Both countries hac¡ve expressed their will to find a way to reduce reciprocal tariffs that are starting to bite into their respective economies. That, however, will involve concessions in controversial aspects such as rare earths’ trade, restrictions on exports of semiconductors or student visas, which might require time and effort.
Negotiators from the world’s two major economies are trying to ease the recent trade tensions and get back on the track defined last month in Geneva. Those talks led to a significant reduction of their reciprocal tariffs, which was celebrated by the market. The mood is mildly positive today, yet traders are growing cautious about the US Dollar.
In the absence of relevant economic releases from the US or Canada, the steady increase in Oil prices, Canada's main export, is providing some support to the CAD, keeping the pair from rallying further. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
The Greenback is showing a mild bullish tone on Tuesday, buoyed by the positive comments by US President Trump regarding the US-China trade talks as representatives from the world’s two major economies meet for a second day, aiming to normalise their trade relationships.
Both countries hac¡ve expressed their will to find a way to reduce reciprocal tariffs that are starting to bite into their respective economies. That, however, will involve concessions in controversial aspects such as rare earths’ trade, restrictions on exports of semiconductors or student visas, which might require time and effort.
Negotiators from the world’s two major economies are trying to ease the recent trade tensions and get back on the track defined last month in Geneva. Those talks led to a significant reduction of their reciprocal tariffs, which was celebrated by the market. The mood is mildly positive today, yet traders are growing cautious about the US Dollar.
In the absence of relevant economic releases from the US or Canada, the steady increase in Oil prices, Canada's main export, is providing some support to the CAD, keeping the pair from rallying further. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
11:53 DXY: Short covering underway – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) consolidates with mild upticks this morning. DXY was last at 99.15 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
US Dollar (USD) consolidates with mild upticks this morning. DXY was last at 99.15 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. US-China trade talks may lead to de-escalation"Daily momentum and RSI indicators are not showing a clear indication. Support at 98.35, 97.90 (2025 low). Resistance at 99.80 (21 DMA), 100.20 (50 DMA). We continue to flag the risk of USD short covering ahead of CPI, PPI reports (Wednesday, Thursday, respectively) and FOMC event risk next week." "US CPI (on Wednesday) can be a binary risk. Consensus expects core CPI to pick up slightly to 0.3% MoM (vs. 0.2% prior) and headline CPI to hold steady at 0.2% MoM. Softer print may see USD softness resuming while firmer print may see USD shorts unwind further. On US-China trade talks, Scott Bessent told reporters yesterday they had a 'good meeting' while Lutnick called the discussions 'fruitful'." "US signalled a willingness to remove restrictions on some tech exports in exchange for assurances that China is easing limits on rare earth shipments. We continue to monitor if the current round of US-China trade talks (extends into day 2 in London) leads to a more formalised agreement before the trade truce expires on 12 August. Positive developments on this front should continue to keep AxJs broadly supported."
11:50 ECB's Rehn: We will take decisions meeting by meeting
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Tuesday, “we will take decisions meeting by meeting.”
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European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Tuesday, “we will take decisions meeting by meeting.”Further commentsMust avoid complacency over inflation outlook.
Must focus on keeping inflation expectations at 2%.Market reactionAt the time of writing, EUR/USD is flirting with 1.1400, down 0.18% so far. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Must focus on keeping inflation expectations at 2%.Market reactionAt the time of writing, EUR/USD is flirting with 1.1400, down 0.18% so far. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
11:32 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index leaps to 0.2 in June vs. -8.1 previous
The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index jumped sharply to 0.2 in June following May’s -8.1, the latest survey showed on Tuesday.
Eurozone investors’ morale bolstered in June.EUR/USD stays offered at around 1.1400 after the Eurozone data.The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index jumped sharply to 0.2 in June following May’s -8.1, the latest survey showed on Tuesday.
11:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose from previous -8.1 to 0.2 in June
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose from previous -8.1 to 0.2 in June
11:28 EUR/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 1.1390/1.1445 – UOB Group
Price movements did not result in any increase in either downward or upward momentum; Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range of 1.1390/1.1445 against US Dollar (USD).
Price movements did not result in any increase in either downward or upward momentum; Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range of 1.1390/1.1445 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, EUR appears to have entered a range trading phase between 1.1330 and 1.1495, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR appears to have entered a range trading phase24-HOUR VIEW: "We indicated yesterday that 'the current price movements appear to be part of a range trading phase', and we expected EUR to 'trade between 1.1365 and 1.1435.' EUR subsequently traded in a range of 1.1385/1.1439. The price movements did not result in any increase in either downward or upward momentum. We continue to expect EUR to trade in a range, likely between 1.1390 and 1.1445." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (09 Jun, spot at 1.1405), we revised our view to neutral, indicating that EUR 'appears to have entered a range trading phase, likely between 1.1330 and 1.1495.' There is no change in our view."
11:26 Oil: Trade talk optimism supports market – ING
Oil prices firmed yesterday, a trend that continued in early morning trading today, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Oil prices firmed yesterday, a trend that continued in early morning trading today, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.US/China trade talks seem to be progressing"Trade talks between the US and China appear to be progressing, with discussions set to continue today. The US also appears willing to ease some tech export restrictions in return for China easing limits on rare earth exports. This is providing some support to the market. Meanwhile, nuclear talks between Iran and the US don’t appear to be progressing, providing some tailwinds for prices. Iran is not willing to compromise on its right to enrich uranium, something the US won’t accept.""The latest trade data shows that Chinese crude oil imports were relatively weak in May, coming in at around 11m b/d, down 5.7% month-on-month and 0.8% lower year-on-year. Weaker imports were partly driven by refinery maintenance; May is generally the peak for such maintenance. However, cumulative imports for the year are still up 0.3% YoY.""The ICE gasoil market continues to point towards tightness in the spot market. The prompt ICE gasoil spread has seen its backwardation surge to almost US$16/t, up from around US$8/t a week ago. In addition, the ICE gasoil crack is holding firm. Speculators also bought the market over the last reporting week, while open interest in ICE gasoil has hit record levels. Long open interest from swap dealers remains near record highs, suggesting a potential increase in consumer hedging."
11:24 USD/CHF hesitates above 0.8200 with markets awaiting trade news
The US Dollar is practically flat against the Swiss Franc on Tuesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Dollar wavers above 0.8200, not far from multi-week lows.FX markets are moving sideways, with investors awaiting news from the US-China meeting.Trump’s positive comments feed hopes of a favourable outcome and keep the USD from falling further.The US Dollar is practically flat against the Swiss Franc on Tuesday. The pair is hesitating above 0.8200, halfway through the last two weeks’ trading range, with investors looking from the sidelines, awaiting news from the US-China trade negotiations.
The world’s two major economies are expected to continue their talks for a second day, aiming to brush off the differences on thorny issues such as rare earths or chips trade, as their respective economies start to show the scars from a restrictive tariff policy.
on
Comments from US President Donald Trump, highlighting the positive reports received from US representatives, are fueling hopes of a positive outcome and keeping safe havens like the CHF at bay. Market movements, however, remain limited, with investors awaiting more specific news from the negotiations.
The Swiss and US calendars are light today with the market’s focus on the US Consumer Price Index report, due on Wednesday. Market forecasts point to a moderate increase in yearly inflation, with the headline CPI up to 2.5% from 2.3% and the core inflation accelerating to 2.9% from the previous 2.8%.
These figures endorse the Fed’s wait-and-see stance and would have a positive impact on the USD, but any breakthrough from the US-China meeting will send macroeconomic figures to the background. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
The world’s two major economies are expected to continue their talks for a second day, aiming to brush off the differences on thorny issues such as rare earths or chips trade, as their respective economies start to show the scars from a restrictive tariff policy.
on
Comments from US President Donald Trump, highlighting the positive reports received from US representatives, are fueling hopes of a positive outcome and keeping safe havens like the CHF at bay. Market movements, however, remain limited, with investors awaiting more specific news from the negotiations.
The Swiss and US calendars are light today with the market’s focus on the US Consumer Price Index report, due on Wednesday. Market forecasts point to a moderate increase in yearly inflation, with the headline CPI up to 2.5% from 2.3% and the core inflation accelerating to 2.9% from the previous 2.8%.
These figures endorse the Fed’s wait-and-see stance and would have a positive impact on the USD, but any breakthrough from the US-China meeting will send macroeconomic figures to the background. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
11:23 EUR/USD: Mild downside risks – OCBC
Euro (EUR) eased below 1.14-handle in morning trade as US Dollar (USD) saw a mild rebound. Last seen at 1.1399 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Euro (EUR) eased below 1.14-handle in morning trade as US Dollar (USD) saw a mild rebound. Last seen at 1.1399 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Euro can revert to trading withing the 1.12-1.15 range"Mild bullish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI fell. Near terms risks skewed to the downside. Support at 1.1320 (21 DMA), 1.1235 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 low to high). Immediate resistance at 1.1420/30 levels before 1.15, 1.1570 levels (2025 high)." "EUR needs to break out of recent high for momentum to carry on. Failing which, it may well revert to trading 1.12 – 1.15 range."
11:22 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Tests psychological 94.00 support near nine-day EMA
AUD/JPY edges lower after registering gains in the previous three consecutive sessions, trading around 94.10 during European hours on Tuesday. As per the technical analysis of the daily chart, the currency cross remains within an ascending channel pattern, confirming a sustained bullish bias.
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11:20 EUR: Bull trade needs feeding – ING
Traded EUR/USD volatility levels are a little softer as spot continues to sit well within range confines, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Traded EUR/USD volatility levels are a little softer as spot continues to sit well within range confines, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.EUR/USD is staying in the 1.1370-1.1430 range today"It costs investors around 2.5% per annum to sit with a long EUR/USD position. Thus, those bullish on EUR/USD need to be fed some bad news on the dollar. That potentially could come with tonight's US Treasury auction results, but is not a given.""In terms of the eurozone calendar today, we have the Sentix Investor Confidence reading for June and a speech from Austria's Robert Holzmann, who was the sole dissenter against last week's 25bp ECB rate cut. It's hard to see EUR/USD breaking out of a 1.1370-1.1430 range today, with directional breakout risks equally balanced."
11:00 Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) above forecasts (0.1%) in April: Actual (1%)
Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) above forecasts (0.1%) in April: Actual (1%)
11:00 Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY): 0.3% (April) vs -1.8%
Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY): 0.3% (April) vs -1.8%
10:50 WTI hovers around $64.50, upside appears as potential US-China deal improves energy demand
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price remains steady at around $64.50 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices may continue their winning streak for the fourth successive day, as potential trade deal between the US and China eases tariff tensions, which dampened energy demands.
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Crude Oil prices may continue their winning streak for the fourth successive day, as potential trade deal between the US and China eases tariff tensions, which dampened energy demands.On Tuesday at 10.00 a.m. in London, US and Chinese advisors are set to continue meeting on a second day. Trade talks will continue as the world’s two largest economies look to expand from tariffs to rare earth elements curbs, global supply chain disruptions and slower growth.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Monday’s meeting was good. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted them as “fruitful,” increasing expectations of progress in improving relations between the two countries.Iran would offer a counter-proposal for a nuclear deal to the US, while President Trump said that he is not ready to allow Iran to continue its uranium enrichment activities. However, easing of US sanctions on Iran, the third largest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), would allow the country to export more Oil, putting downward pressure on the global crude prices.OPEC+, including OPEC members and allies such as Russia, plans to scale back its latest round of production cuts. "The prospect of further hikes in OPEC supply continues to hang over the market," Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a note cited by Reuters. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
10:41 EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Testing the neckline of an inverse H&S, at 0.8460
The Euro is trading higher on Tuesday with the Pound hit by downbeat UK employment figures, and soft wage inflation, which have strengthened the case for further BoE easing in the coming months.
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The Euro is pushing against the top of last month's trading range, at 0.8460.The Pound loses ground, weighed by weak UK employment data. Above 0.8460, the H&S's measured target is 0.8540.
The Euro is trading higher on Tuesday with the Pound hit by downbeat UK employment figures, and soft wage inflation, which have strengthened the case for further BoE easing in the coming months.
Claimants for unemployment benefits increased by 33.1K in May, more than three times the 9.5K increment foreseen by market analysts. The Unemployment Rate increased to 4.6%, its highest level in four years, and wage growth slowed to 5.2%, below the 5.3% expected. Technical analysis: EUR/GBP might have reached a bottom at 0.8360The technical picture suggests that the bearish cycle from mid-April highs might have been completed at 0.8360, and the pair is about to correct higher. A bullish divergence on the 4-Hour RSI, which is now popping up above the 50 level, and a potential inverse bullish Head & Shoulders pattern are endorsing that view.
UK data has boosted the Euro, which is treading the 0.8450-0.8460 area, a previous support, now turned resistance and the neckline of the mentioned Head and Shoulders pattern.
A confirmation above shifts the focus towards the measured target of the H&S formation at the April 25, 30 and May 2 highs, in the area of 0.8540 ahead of the April 21 high, at 0.8620.
On the downside, a bearish reaction below 0.8360 cancels this view and increases pressure towards 0.8325 (April 3 low) and the key 0.8245 year-to-date low.EUR/GBP Daily Chart Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
The Euro is trading higher on Tuesday with the Pound hit by downbeat UK employment figures, and soft wage inflation, which have strengthened the case for further BoE easing in the coming months.
Claimants for unemployment benefits increased by 33.1K in May, more than three times the 9.5K increment foreseen by market analysts. The Unemployment Rate increased to 4.6%, its highest level in four years, and wage growth slowed to 5.2%, below the 5.3% expected. Technical analysis: EUR/GBP might have reached a bottom at 0.8360The technical picture suggests that the bearish cycle from mid-April highs might have been completed at 0.8360, and the pair is about to correct higher. A bullish divergence on the 4-Hour RSI, which is now popping up above the 50 level, and a potential inverse bullish Head & Shoulders pattern are endorsing that view.
UK data has boosted the Euro, which is treading the 0.8450-0.8460 area, a previous support, now turned resistance and the neckline of the mentioned Head and Shoulders pattern.
A confirmation above shifts the focus towards the measured target of the H&S formation at the April 25, 30 and May 2 highs, in the area of 0.8540 ahead of the April 21 high, at 0.8620.
On the downside, a bearish reaction below 0.8360 cancels this view and increases pressure towards 0.8325 (April 3 low) and the key 0.8245 year-to-date low.EUR/GBP Daily Chart Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
10:37 NZD/USD wobbles around 0.6050 while investors await Sino-US trade talks outcome
The NZD/USD pair consolidates in a tight range around 0.6050 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The Kiwi pair trades sideways as investors shift sidelines with investors awaiting the outcome of trade talks between the United States (US) and China, which started on Monday in London.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
10:31 ECB’s Villeroy: We will remain pragmatic going forward on rates
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Tuesday that “we will remain pragmatic going forward on rates.”
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European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Tuesday that “we will remain pragmatic going forward on rates.”Additional quotesWill go according to the data flow.
Will be as agile as necessary.
Policy and inflation are now in a favorable zone.
But that doesn't mean that the ECB is static.Market reactionEUR/USD is losing 0.29% on the day to trade at 1.1391 when writing. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Will be as agile as necessary.
Policy and inflation are now in a favorable zone.
But that doesn't mean that the ECB is static.Market reactionEUR/USD is losing 0.29% on the day to trade at 1.1391 when writing. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
10:28 Pound Sterling tumbles on weak set of UK employment data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces a sharp selling pressure against its peers on Tuesday after the United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the labor market cooled down in three months ending April.
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The ILO Unemployment Rate accelerated to 4.6%, as expected, from the prior release of 4.5%. This is the highest level in the jobless rate seen since July 2021. Slowing UK job growth reflects the impact of the increase in employers’ contributions to social security schemes. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves raised employers’ contribution to National Insurance (NI) from 13.8% to 15% in the Autumn Statement, which became effective in April.Meanwhile, Average Earnings, a key measure of wage growth that drives inflation in the services sector, has grown at a modest pace. Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses rose by 5.2%, slower than estimates of 5.4% and the prior reading of 5.5%, revised lower from 5.6%. The wage growth measure including bonuses grew at a slower pace of 5.3%, compared to expectations of 5.5% and the previous release of 5.6%, revised higher from 5.5%.Slower wage growth and a slowdown in the labor demand are expected to encourage Bank of England (BoE) officials to reassess their guidance that the central bank will follow a “gradual and cautious” monetary expansion approach, which they delivered in May after lowering interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%.Meanwhile, traders are confident that the BoE will keep interest rates steady at 4.25% in the policy meeting on June 19.This week, investors should brace for more volatility in the British currency as the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and factory data for April are scheduled for release on Thursday.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling falls sharply against US Dollar amid US-China trade talksThe Pound Sterling slumps to near 1.3456 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar trades calmly against its major peers, with investors awaiting the outcome of trade discussions between the United States (US) and China, which started on Monday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks up to near 99.00.The US Dollar had a strong run-up before the Sino-US trade talks in Geneva a few weeks ago. Investors seem to be hesitant to buy on optimism this time as they want concrete trade terms. "A deal to keep talking might be better than nothing, but unless we see a concrete breakthrough, the impact on sentiment is likely to remain muted,” analysts at Saxo Markets said Reuters reported.Meanwhile, the White House has expressed confidence that a breakthrough outcome will be achieved after the US-China trade meeting. US National Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett stated in an interview with CNBC on Monday that “export controls to be eased and rare earths to be released in volume” after the meeting.On the economic calendar front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be released on Wednesday. The CPI report is expected to show that the headline inflation rose at a faster pace of 2.5% on year, compared to a 2.3% growth seen in April. In the same period, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to accelerate to 2.9% from the prior reading of 2.8%. These inflation figures are likely to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the US central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates before the September monetary policy meeting.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling corrects to near 20-day EMAThe Pound Sterling slips to near 1.3456 against the US Dollar on Tuesday after failing to revisit the three-year high of 1.3617. The outlook for the pair has become uncertain as it has declined to near the 20-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which oscillates around 1.3467.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) faces pressure near 60.00, indicating that the upside is capped.On the upside, the 13 January 2022 high of 1.3750 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the horizontal line plotted from the 26 September 2024 high of 1.3434 will act as a key support zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:28 EUR/USD eases with investors awaiting news from US-China talks
EUR/USD is trading mildly lower on Tuesday.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Euro is showing a mild bearish stance against the US Dollar as the US-China talks extend to a second day. Positive comments from US President Trump are keeping investors hopeful of a successful outcome from the negotiations. The US Dollar keeps trading within recent ranges amid a lack of concrete progress.EUR/USD is trading mildly lower on Tuesday. The pair eased to levels right below 1.1400 at the time of writing, still within the last few days’ range, with investors reluctant to place large directional bets as US and Chinese representatives continue to discuss trade issues.
Positive remarks from some officials, namely US President Donald Trump’s comments affirming that he is getting “good reports” from the meeting, are contributing to keeping market sentiment buoyed and have provided some support to the US Dollar (USD).
Traders, however, are likely to remain looking from the sidelines, awaiting news about concrete progress. The world’s two largest economies have gone into the meeting with a constructive attitude, aiming to revive the spirit of last month’s meeting in Switzerland, which led to a significant reduction in their reciprocal tariffs.
This time, however, thorny issues such as rare earths’ trade, restrictions on chips’ exports, or visas for students will force both parties to make sacrifices if they want to reach a deal. And this might take some time.
The US economic calendar is light today. Investors will be attentive to the US CPI on Wednesday for further insight into the inflationary impact of trade tariffs and its potential influence on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.31% 0.64% 0.14% 0.18% 0.32% 0.21% 0.13% EUR -0.31% 0.33% -0.20% -0.09% 0.03% -0.09% -0.15% GBP -0.64% -0.33% -0.58% -0.42% -0.31% -0.42% -0.47% JPY -0.14% 0.20% 0.58% 0.07% 0.14% -0.01% -0.09% CAD -0.18% 0.09% 0.42% -0.07% 0.12% 0.00% -0.05% AUD -0.32% -0.03% 0.31% -0.14% -0.12% -0.09% -0.17% NZD -0.21% 0.09% 0.42% 0.00% -0.01% 0.09% -0.06% CHF -0.13% 0.15% 0.47% 0.09% 0.05% 0.17% 0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: Lack of news leads to muted market movement
The US Dollar is nudging higher against most peers, yet still constrained within the recent ranges. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced up, but it is struggling to take a significant distance from the nearly two-month lows hit last week.
The trade talks between US and Chinese representatives are set to resume on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. Trump affirmed on Monday that he is “only getting good reports,” but that dealing with China is not easy. These comments feed hopes of a positive outcome, but risk appetite remains subdued.
On Monday, European Central Bank’s policymaker Peter Kazimir suggested that the bank might be near the end of the monetary easing cycle, echoing last week’s message from President Lagarde. These comments provided immediate support to the Euro, which, however, did not last long.
In the calendar today, the Sentix Confidence Index will reveal investors’ opinion about the Eurozone’s near-term economic outlook. The impact on the Euro, however, is likely to be limited.
The highlight of the week will be Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to have grown steadily at 0.2% in May with the yearly inflation increasing to 2.5% from 2.3% in April. Core inflation is also expected to have accelerated, endorsing the Fed’s hawkish stance.
The Federal Reserve is on its blackout period ahead of next week’s monetary policy meeting. Futures markets are not pricing any rate cut at least until September, with nearly two rate cuts foreseen for this year, as data from the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool shows.
Technical analysis: EUR/USD looks for direction above 1.1370EUR/USD keeps moving within an upward trend, but the rejection at around 1.1500 seen last week and a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart suggest that bulls might be losing steam.
Price action shows a mild negative tone on Tuesday, but sellers should break the 1.1370 support level to confirm a deeper correction heading to 1.1315 (May 30 low) and the 1.1215-1.1220 (May 20 and 28 lows).
On the upside, the June 3 high at 1.1455 is likely to challenge bulls ahead of the June 5 high at 1.1495. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Positive remarks from some officials, namely US President Donald Trump’s comments affirming that he is getting “good reports” from the meeting, are contributing to keeping market sentiment buoyed and have provided some support to the US Dollar (USD).
Traders, however, are likely to remain looking from the sidelines, awaiting news about concrete progress. The world’s two largest economies have gone into the meeting with a constructive attitude, aiming to revive the spirit of last month’s meeting in Switzerland, which led to a significant reduction in their reciprocal tariffs.
This time, however, thorny issues such as rare earths’ trade, restrictions on chips’ exports, or visas for students will force both parties to make sacrifices if they want to reach a deal. And this might take some time.
The US economic calendar is light today. Investors will be attentive to the US CPI on Wednesday for further insight into the inflationary impact of trade tariffs and its potential influence on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.31% 0.64% 0.14% 0.18% 0.32% 0.21% 0.13% EUR -0.31% 0.33% -0.20% -0.09% 0.03% -0.09% -0.15% GBP -0.64% -0.33% -0.58% -0.42% -0.31% -0.42% -0.47% JPY -0.14% 0.20% 0.58% 0.07% 0.14% -0.01% -0.09% CAD -0.18% 0.09% 0.42% -0.07% 0.12% 0.00% -0.05% AUD -0.32% -0.03% 0.31% -0.14% -0.12% -0.09% -0.17% NZD -0.21% 0.09% 0.42% 0.00% -0.01% 0.09% -0.06% CHF -0.13% 0.15% 0.47% 0.09% 0.05% 0.17% 0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: Lack of news leads to muted market movement
The US Dollar is nudging higher against most peers, yet still constrained within the recent ranges. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced up, but it is struggling to take a significant distance from the nearly two-month lows hit last week.
The trade talks between US and Chinese representatives are set to resume on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. Trump affirmed on Monday that he is “only getting good reports,” but that dealing with China is not easy. These comments feed hopes of a positive outcome, but risk appetite remains subdued.
On Monday, European Central Bank’s policymaker Peter Kazimir suggested that the bank might be near the end of the monetary easing cycle, echoing last week’s message from President Lagarde. These comments provided immediate support to the Euro, which, however, did not last long.
In the calendar today, the Sentix Confidence Index will reveal investors’ opinion about the Eurozone’s near-term economic outlook. The impact on the Euro, however, is likely to be limited.
The highlight of the week will be Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to have grown steadily at 0.2% in May with the yearly inflation increasing to 2.5% from 2.3% in April. Core inflation is also expected to have accelerated, endorsing the Fed’s hawkish stance.
The Federal Reserve is on its blackout period ahead of next week’s monetary policy meeting. Futures markets are not pricing any rate cut at least until September, with nearly two rate cuts foreseen for this year, as data from the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool shows.
Technical analysis: EUR/USD looks for direction above 1.1370EUR/USD keeps moving within an upward trend, but the rejection at around 1.1500 seen last week and a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart suggest that bulls might be losing steam.
Price action shows a mild negative tone on Tuesday, but sellers should break the 1.1370 support level to confirm a deeper correction heading to 1.1315 (May 30 low) and the 1.1215-1.1220 (May 20 and 28 lows).
On the upside, the June 3 high at 1.1455 is likely to challenge bulls ahead of the June 5 high at 1.1495. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:22 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD retreats from multi-week peak, slides below mid-$36.00s
Silver (XAG/USD) sticks to modest intraday losses through the early European session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to the $37.00 neighborhood, or its highest level since February 2012.
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A slightly overbought RSI prompts the XAG/USD bulls to lighten their bets.Any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited.Silver (XAG/USD) sticks to modest intraday losses through the early European session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to the $37.00 neighborhood, or its highest level since February 2012. The white metal currently trades below mid-$36.00s, down 0.80% for the day.The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing slightly overbought conditions and prompts the XAG/USD bulls to take some profits off the table. However, the recent breakout through the previous multi-year peak and the subsequent move up favor suggests that any meaningful corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity. From current levels, the $36.00-$35.90 area could offer immediate support, below which the XAG/USD could extend the slide to the next relevant support near the $35.60 region en route to levels below the $35.00 psychological mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point and a convincing break below would negate the constructive outlook. This, in turn, would shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and pave the way for some meaningful downside.On the flip side, bulls might now await a move beyond the $37.00 round figure before placing fresh bets and positioning for an extension of over a one-week-old uptrend. The XAG/USD might then retest the 2012 yearly swing high, around mid-$37.00s, before aiming to reclaim the $38.00 mark for the first time since September 2011.Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
10:07 US Dollar Index strengthens above 99.00 amid hope for US-China trade deal
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, rebounds to around 99.25 during the early European session on Tuesday amid improved risk sentiment.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
10:00 Austria Industrial Production (YoY) rose from previous 1.4% to 3.7% in March
Austria Industrial Production (YoY) rose from previous 1.4% to 3.7% in March
09:27 Forex Today: US Dollar holds ground, US-China trade talks set to continue
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, June 10:
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Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, June 10:The US Dollar (USD) stays resilient against its peers in the European session on Tuesday. Investors refrain from taking large positions as they await the outcome of the United States (US)-China trade talks, which are set to continue in London later in the day. The NFIB Optimism Index for May will be the only data featured in the US economic calendar. US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.27% 0.11% 1.24% -0.05% -0.31% -0.22% 0.47% EUR -0.27% -0.13% 1.01% -0.29% -0.56% -0.40% 0.21% GBP -0.11% 0.13% 1.11% -0.17% -0.43% -0.29% 0.34% JPY -1.24% -1.01% -1.11% -1.28% -1.56% -1.44% -0.70% CAD 0.05% 0.29% 0.17% 1.28% -0.32% -0.13% 0.52% AUD 0.31% 0.56% 0.43% 1.56% 0.32% 0.15% 0.78% NZD 0.22% 0.40% 0.29% 1.44% 0.13% -0.15% 0.63% CHF -0.47% -0.21% -0.34% 0.70% -0.52% -0.78% -0.63% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In the absence of high-impact data releases, the trading action in financial markets remained relatively subdued at the beginning of the week. Wall Street's main indexes ended Monday with minimal gains and the USD Index posted small losses. In the European morning on Tuesday, the USD Index trades marginally higher slightly above 99.00, while US stock index futures remain virtually unchanged on the day.The data published by the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed early Tuesday that the ILO Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.6% in the three months to April from 4.5%, as anticipated. In this period, the annual wage inflation, as measured by the changed in the Average Earnings Excluding Bonus, softened to 5.2% from 5.5%. Finally, the Employment Change was 89K, compared to 112K previously. GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.3550.After ending the first trading day of the week marginally higher, EUR/USD fluctuates in a tight channel at around 1.1400 in the European morning on Thursday. China's Vice President Han Zheng said on Tuesday that the Chinese government is ready to work with the European Union to further expand areas of cooperation and promote new development in China-EU relations. Later in the session, Sentix Investor Confidence data for June will be featured in the European economic docket.Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda repeated on Tuesday that they will raise interest rates if they have enough confidence that underlying inflation nears 2% or moves around 2%. Following Monday's choppy action, USD/JPY struggles to find direction early Tuesday and trades near 144.50.AUD/USD moves up and down in a narrow band above 0.6500 in the European morning. The data from Australia showed that the Westpac Consumer Confidence declined to 0.5% in June from 2.2% in May.Gold held its ground and ended the day in positive territory after dipping below $3,300 in the early Asian session on Monday. XAU/USD stays calm on Tuesday and continues to move sideways above $3,300. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
09:11 GBP/JPY remains weak near 195.50 after UK employment data
The GBP/JPY cross weakens to near 195.65 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains weak against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the UK employment data. Traders will keep an eye on the monthly UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for April, which is due on Thursday.
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The GBP/JPY cross weakens to near 195.65 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains weak against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the UK employment data. Traders will keep an eye on the monthly UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for April, which is due on Thursday. Data released by the UK Office for National Statistics on Tuesday showed that the country’s ILO Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.6% in the three months to April versus 4.5% prior. This figure came in line with the expectations of 4.6% during the reported period. Meanwhile, the Claimant Count Change increased by 33.1K in May versus -21.2K prior (revised from 5.2K), below the consensus of 9.5K. The GBP attracts some sellers in an immediate reaction to the weaker UK employment report. Japan’s GDP shrank at an annual rate of 0.2% in Q1, compared to the initial estimate of a 0.7% fall, Japan’s Cabinet Office showed on Monday. An upward revision of Japan’s Q1 GDP has reaffirmed the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike bets and could underpin the JPY. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the central bank will raise interest rates if it has enough confidence that the underlying inflation is near or moves around 2%. The Japanese central bank is set to hold a two-day policy meeting next week. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
09:05 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate remains at 4.5% in May
United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate remains at 4.5% in May
09:02 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $64.52 per barrel, down from Monday’s close at $64.55.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $64.52 per barrel, down from Monday’s close at $64.55.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude), on the contrary, is up, advancing from the $66.77 price posted on Monday, and trading at $66.78. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
09:01 UK Unemployment Rate climbs to 4.6% in the quarter to April as expected
The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment increased to 4.6% in the three months to April after reporting 4.5% in the quarter to March, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The UK Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% in three months to April.The Claimant Count Change for Britain stood at 33.1K in May.GBP/USD holds losses below 1.3550 after weak UK employment data.The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment increased to 4.6% in the three months to April after reporting 4.5% in the quarter to March, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday.The data aligned with the market estimates.Additional details of the report showed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits rose 33.1K in May, compared with a revised decline of 21.2K in April, missing the expected 9.5K figure.The Employment Change data came in at 89K in April versus 112K in March.Meanwhile, Average Earnings, excluding Bonus, in the UK increased 5.2% three months year-over-year (3M YoY) in April versus a revised 5.5% growth booked previously. The market forecast was for a 5.4% reading.Another measure of wage inflation, Average Earnings, including Bonus, ticked up by 5.3% in the same period after accelerating by a revised 5.6% in the quarter through March. The data missed the estimate of 5.5%.GBP/USD reaction to the UK employment reportGBP/USD remains under moderate selling pressure following the release of the UK employment data. The pair is trading 0.23% lower on the day at 1.3523, as of writing. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.17% 0.16% 0.03% 0.09% 0.17% 0.13% 0.02% EUR -0.17% 0.00% -0.15% -0.05% 0.02% -0.04% -0.12% GBP -0.16% -0.00% -0.22% -0.05% 0.02% -0.04% -0.12% JPY -0.03% 0.15% 0.22% 0.10% 0.12% 0.03% -0.08% CAD -0.09% 0.05% 0.05% -0.10% 0.06% 0.02% -0.07% AUD -0.17% -0.02% -0.02% -0.12% -0.06% -0.04% -0.14% NZD -0.13% 0.04% 0.04% -0.03% -0.02% 0.04% -0.08% CHF -0.02% 0.12% 0.12% 0.08% 0.07% 0.14% 0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
09:01 Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY): 5% (April) vs -3.5%
Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY): 5% (April) vs -3.5%
09:01 Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) increased to 3.4% in April from previous -1.6%
Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) increased to 3.4% in April from previous -1.6%
09:00 United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) below forecasts (5.5%) in April: Actual (5.3%)
United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) below forecasts (5.5%) in April: Actual (5.3%)
09:00 United Kingdom Claimant Count Change registered at 33.1K above expectations (9.5K) in May
United Kingdom Claimant Count Change registered at 33.1K above expectations (9.5K) in May
09:00 United Kingdom Employment Change (3M) declined to 89K in April from previous 112K
United Kingdom Employment Change (3M) declined to 89K in April from previous 112K
09:00 United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) below expectations (5.4%) in April: Actual (5.2%)
United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) below expectations (5.4%) in April: Actual (5.2%)
09:00 Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) fell from previous 10.7% to 7% in April
Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) fell from previous 10.7% to 7% in April
08:49 EUR/JPY trades around 165.00 after retreating from seven-month highs
EUR/JPY pulled back from a fresh seven-month high of 165.45, trading around 165.10 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.
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However, the currency cross gained ground as the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) received downward pressure amid a cooling down in the United States’ (US) latest broad tariff tensions with China.US and Chinese advisors are set to continue meeting on a second day on Tuesday at 10.00 a.m. in London. Trade talks will continue as the world’s two largest economies look to ease tensions over shipments of technology and rare earth elements, per Bloomberg. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick both noted positive comments about the meeting held on Monday.On Monday, data showed that Japan's economy contracted at a slower pace than initially estimated, by 0.2% annualized during the first quarter of 2025, reaffirming market bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue normalizing rates amid sticky inflation.Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that he will appropriately conduct fiscal policy to prompt domestic investors to buy more Japanese Government Bond holdings. Kato also emphasized that the government to make efforts to ensure a variety of investors buy and own government bonds, at a time when the BoJ tapers its bond purchases.In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25 basis point rate cut last week, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest since November 2022. Moreover, the central bank also revised down its inflation projections for 2025 and 2026, indicating that it is nearing the end of its current easing cycle. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
08:42 FX option expiries for Jun 10 NY cut
FX option expiries for Jun 10 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.
FX option expiries for Jun 10 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1300 1.1b1.1320 778m1.1375 782m1.1400 1.3b1.1425 1.2bUSD/JPY: USD amounts 143.30 936m144.00 776mUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8450 465mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6420 942m0.6460 618mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3695 1.1bNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5880 602m
08:08 AUD/JPY jumps to near 94.50 as investors lack clarity on BoJ’s monetary policy outlook
The AUD/JPY pair climbs to near 94.50 during Asian trading hours, extending its winning streak for the are fourth trading day on Tuesday.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY advances for the fourth trading day in a row, while the Japanese Yen underperforms its peers on Tuesday.BoJ Ueda is confident about further monetary tightening if the underlying inflation returns to their 2% target.Investors await the outcome of the US-China trade meeting in London.The AUD/JPY pair climbs to near 94.50 during Asian trading hours, extending its winning streak for the are fourth trading day on Tuesday. The cross strengthens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms its peers, while investors turning cautious about whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.20% 0.09% 0.23% 0.04% -0.07% -0.05% 0.08% EUR -0.20% -0.10% 0.00% -0.13% -0.25% -0.25% -0.10% GBP -0.09% 0.10% 0.06% -0.03% -0.15% -0.15% 0.00% JPY -0.23% 0.00% -0.06% -0.15% -0.32% -0.36% -0.22% CAD -0.04% 0.13% 0.03% 0.15% -0.13% -0.12% 0.04% AUD 0.07% 0.25% 0.15% 0.32% 0.13% 0.02% 0.15% NZD 0.05% 0.25% 0.15% 0.36% 0.12% -0.02% 0.16% CHF -0.08% 0.10% -0.01% 0.22% -0.04% -0.15% -0.16% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
On Monday, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warned that rising interest rates by the BoJ could limit the government’s borrowing power by increasing the cost of funds, an element that could hinder Tokyo’s spending plans. The statement from PM Ishiba came at a time when Tokyo has cited concerns over the economic outlook due to the fallout of the tariff policy by United States (US) President Donald Trump.However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has kept the door open for further monetary policy tightening. Earlier in the day, Kazuo Ueda told Parliament that “we will raise interest rates if we have enough confidence that underlying inflation nears 2% or moves around 2%.” According to a report from Reuters, the BoJ has signaled that the underlying inflation, a specific gauge of price pressures based on demand, has remained short of its annual target, even as broader consumer inflation trended well above 2% for at least the past three years. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its peers amid optimism that trade discussions between the US and China in London, which have entered their second day, will end on a positive note.White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett expressed confidence in an interview with CNBC on Monday that “export controls to be eased and rare earths to be released in volume” after the meeting.Given that Australia is the leading trading partner of China, an improvement in the Chinese economic outlook strengthens the Aussie Dollar. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
07:59 EUR/GBP consolidates above 0.8400 mark, looks to UK jobs data for fresh impetus
The EUR/GBP cross ticks lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so.
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The divergent BoE-ECB expectations support prospects for some meaningful gains.Traders keenly await UK monthly employment details for short-term impetuses.The EUR/GBP cross ticks lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so. Spot prices hold above the 0.8400 mark as traders now look forward to the UK jobs data for some meaningful impetus and positioning for a firm intraday direction. The ILO Unemployment Rate is expected to edge higher from a three-year high level of 4.5% registered in the previous month to 4.6% during the three months to April. Adding to this, a further slowdown in the UK wage growth would point to signs of a cooling labour market and place more pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to ease its monetary policy. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining the British Pound (GBP) and acting as a tailwind for the EUR/GBP cross.Meanwhile, inflation in the Eurozone fell below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target for the first time since September 2024 in May, fueling speculation about further monetary easing. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde last week hinted that interest rates are nearing their neutral level, pointing to the end of the rate-cutting cycle. This might contribute to the Euro's (EUR) relative outperformance against the GBP and favor the EUR/GBP bulls.However, the recent range-bound price action above a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a sharp fall from the year-to-date high touched in April. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any meaningful upside. Economic Indicator ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. As a result, a rise leads to a weakening of the UK economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Jun 10, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 4.6% Previous: 4.5% Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor market. The figure is highlighted by the broad media, beyond the financial sector, giving the publication a more significant impact despite its late publication. It is released around six weeks after the month ends. While the Bank of England is tasked with maintaining price stability, there is a substantial inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. A higher than expected figure tends to be GBP-bearish.
07:52 USD/CHF holds positive ground above 0.8200, eyes on US-China trade talks
The USD/CHF pair trades in positive territory around 0.8225 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The optimism over the resumption of US-China trade talks provides some support for the Greenback. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May will be in the spotlight on Wednesday.
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The USD/CHF pair trades in positive territory around 0.8225 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The optimism over the resumption of US-China trade talks provides some support for the Greenback. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May will be in the spotlight on Wednesday. US-China trade talks were scheduled to continue in London on Tuesday, as the world’s top two economies sought to resolve disagreements following a call between the leaders of the two countries. Trump said that the talks were going well and he was “only getting good reports,” according to Reuters.Investors will keep an eye on the US CPI inflation data for May, which is due on Wednesday. The report could offer some hints about the tariff impact and interest rate outlook. If the report shows a hotter-than-expected inflation outcome, this could lift the USD against the Swiss Franc (CHF). Meanwhile, Kyiv and Odesa came under another mass Russian attack early Tuesday, involving ballistic missiles and drones. Explosions were heard across the capital as air defense systems engaged the targets. Persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
07:36 Gold price drops to $3,300 neighborhood amid modest USD strength
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday and drops to the $3,300 neighborhood in the last hour, closer to a one-week low touched the previous day.
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The optimism over US-China trade talks undermines safe-haven assets, which, along with a goodish pickup in the US Dollar (USD) demand, turn out to be key factors exerting downward pressure on the bullion. However, the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further in 2025 might keep a lid on any meaningful USD appreciation. Furthermore, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East should help limit losses for the Gold price. This warrants caution for the XAU/USD bears ahead of US inflation figures. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by receding safe-haven demand and a stronger USDChinese and US officials extend the new round of trade talks in London to a second day on Tuesday, fueling hopes for a deal between the world's two largest economies. This remains supportive of a generally positive risk tone and prompts fresh selling around the safe-haven Gold price during the Asian session on Tuesday. A stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday dampened hopes for imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This assists the US Dollar to regain positive traction and turns out to be another factor that contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. However, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are still pricing in a nearly 60% chance that the US central bank will cut interest rates at its September monetary policy meeting. This, along with concerns about the US government's financial health, fails to assist the USD to capitalize on its intraday move higher. On the geopolitical front, Russia launched a massive airstrike on Ukraine and fired nearly 500 drones and missiles. This marks a further escalation of the conflict in the three-year-old war and might hold back the XAU/USD bears from placing aggressive bets in the absence of any relevant market-moving economic data from the US.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) are due for release on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The crucial inflation figures should provide some cues about the Fed's future rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the commodity.Gold price needs to find acceptance below $3,300 for bears to seize short-term controlFrom a technical perspective, the overnight failure to find acceptance above the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent slide favors the XAU/USD bears. Moreover, oscillators on hourly charts have been gaining negative traction and back the case for further intraday losses. Some follow-through selling below the $3,294-3,293 area, or the overnight swing low, will reaffirm the bearish outlook and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $3,246-3,245 area (May 29 swing low) en route to the $3,200 neighborhood.On the flip side, the 100-hour SMA, currently pegged near the $3,333-3.334 area might continue to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained strength beyond could trigger an intraday short-covering move and lift the Gold price to the $3.352-3,353 hurdle. The momentum could extend further towards the $3,377-3,378 resistance, which if cleared should allow the XAU/USD to make a fresh attempt to conquer the $3,400 round figure. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.26% 0.12% 0.25% 0.04% -0.08% -0.03% 0.12% EUR -0.26% -0.12% -0.03% -0.18% -0.32% -0.29% -0.11% GBP -0.12% 0.12% 0.04% -0.06% -0.19% -0.17% 0.02% JPY -0.25% 0.03% -0.04% -0.16% -0.35% -0.35% -0.19% CAD -0.04% 0.18% 0.06% 0.16% -0.14% -0.10% 0.08% AUD 0.08% 0.32% 0.19% 0.35% 0.14% 0.05% 0.21% NZD 0.03% 0.29% 0.17% 0.35% 0.10% -0.05% 0.19% CHF -0.12% 0.11% -0.02% 0.19% -0.08% -0.21% -0.19% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 9,087.40 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,149.26 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 105,993.00 per tola from INR 106,715.20 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,087.40 10 Grams 90,875.47 Tola 105,993.00 Troy Ounce 282,651.00
2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast
Daily digest market movers: Gold climbs as US yields tumble, undermining the US Dollar The US 10-year Treasury yield falls three basis points to 4.478%. US real yields have followed suit and are also down for the same amount at 2.168%, a headwind for Bullion prices. Gold prices are recovering following an upbeat May US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The print exceeded forecasts of 130K, rising by 139K, while the Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.2%. The data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) approach of wait-and-see, fueling a reduction of rate cut bets pricing, with traders eyeing less than two rate cuts this year. On Wednesday, the US CPI is expected to rise from 2.3% to 2.5% YoY, with core figures projected to increase from 2.8% to 2.9% YoY. If the numbers come as expected, the Fed would not have room to reduce interest rates as demanded by President Trump. Data over the weekend showed that China's central bank added Gold to its reserves in May for the seventh straight month. The de-escalation of US-Sino trade war tensions could exert downward pressure on Gold, which so far has gained over 26% this year. Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 44.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:32 USD/CAD treads water above 1.3700 as tariff tensions ease following US-China meeting
USD/CAD extends its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.3700 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground as market sentiment improves amid easing tariff war tensions between the United States and China.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD receives support from improved risk sentiment amid easing US-China tariff dispute.US-China advisors are expected to meet again in London on Tuesday.Improved crude Oil prices contribute support for the commodity-linked CAD.USD/CAD extends its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.3700 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground as market sentiment improves amid easing tariff war tensions between the United States and China.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentions discussions held on Monday as a “good meeting,” meanwhile Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted them as “fruitful,” increasing expectations of progress in improving relations between the two countries. Again, on Tuesday, officials from the world’s two largest economies are expected to meet to continue the trade talks with expectations of easing tensions over shipments of technology and rare earth elements, per Bloomberg.Additionally, the Greenback may gain ground due to increased odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its next two monetary policy meetings, driven by recent stronger-than-expected US jobs data. Traders now turn their attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, scheduled to be released on Wednesday, seeking fresh insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary outlook.However, the upside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may receive support from the improved Oil prices. As Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States (US), higher Oil prices provide support for the CAD.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price remains steady above $64.50 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices receive support from positive risk sentiment, driven by a potential trade deal between the US and China. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
07:31 Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) down to -1% in April from previous -0.6%
Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) down to -1% in April from previous -0.6%
07:28 USD/INR falls at open while US-China trade talks enter second day
The Indian Rupee extends its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth trading day on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair ticks down to near 85.55 after opening, even as the US Dollar edges higher during Asian trading hours.
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The USD/INR pair ticks down to near 85.55 after opening, even as the US Dollar edges higher during Asian trading hours. Still, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is broadly in a tight range between 98.80-99.30 as investors hesitate to build fresh positions before the release of the United States (US)-China meeting minutes.Trade discussions between top negotiators from Washington and Beijing have extended to a second day in London, while the White House has signaled that the meeting will end positively.White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett expressed confidence in an interview with CNBC on Monday that “export controls to be eased and rare earths to be released in volume” after the meeting.On the economic front, investors keenly await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be released on Tuesday. Investors will pay close attention to the US inflation data as it will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee trades higher against its peersThe Indian Rupee outperforms its peers during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Indian currency gains as investors await the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, scheduled for Thursday. As measured by the CPI, US inflation is estimated to have risen by 3% year-over-year, slower than the 3.16% growth seen in April.Soft inflation data would boost market expectations that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could lower the Repo Rate again in the next monetary policy announcement. In the policy meeting on Friday, the RBI changed its stance from “accommodative” to “neutral”, but signaled there is little room for more interest rate cuts. The RBI announced a pro-growth monetary policy last week in which it front-loaded interest rate cuts. The Indian central bank slashed the repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5% and reduced its Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 basis points (bps) to 3%.Meanwhile, the RBI has announced that it is concluding its daily variable rate repo (VRR) auctions from Wednesday. The central bank started VRR auctions on January 16 to fulfil the need for liquidity for the productive sector, given tight market conditions.In the US region, investors will keenly focus on Wednesday’s CPI data for May. According to the estimates, the US headline and core CPI rose at a faster pace of 2.5% and 2.9% year-on-year, respectively, a scenario that will discourage Federal Reserve (Fed) officials from lowering interest rates. This week, the University of Michigan (UoM) will release preliminary one-year and five-year Consumer Inflation Expectations data for June, which has been a key driver behind increasing confidence of financial market participants that the Fed will not cut interest rates in the near term.Investors have quoted new economic policies by US President Trump as inflationary for the economy, which have also restricted Fed officials from being outspoken on the monetary expansion approach.Technical Analysis: Indian Rupee struggles around 20-day EMAThe USD/INR pair ticks down to near 85.55 during the Asian trading session. The pair wobbles around the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that the near-term trend is uncertain.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.Looking down, the June 3 low of 85.30 is a key support level for the major. A downside break below the same could expose it to the May 26 low of 84.78. On the upside, the pair could revisit an over 11-week high around 86.70 after breaking above the May 22 high of 86.10. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
07:01 WTI drifts higher above $64.50 on US-China trade talk hopes
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $64.65 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price climbs to nearly seven-week highs, bolstered by a potential trade deal and a weaker US Dollar (USD).
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OPEC and its partners have agreed to expand short-term oil production.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $64.65 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price climbs to nearly seven-week highs, bolstered by a potential trade deal and a weaker US Dollar (USD). Investors await news from US-China trade talks in London for fresh impetus. Investors are optimistic about the negotiations between the US and China, even though no significant breakthroughs were announced after the first day of talks. US President Donald Trump said that the talks “should go very well.” Oil traders are hopeful of a positive outcome from negotiation, which might support the global economic outlook and boost oil demand. This, in turn, could underpin the WTI price. Furthermore, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war could lift demand for crude oil. Early Tuesday, Kyiv and Odesa came under another mass Russian attack, involving ballistic missiles and drones. Explosions were heard across the capital as air defense systems engaged the targets.On the other hand, the latest move by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) might cap the upside for the WTI. OPEC and its partners have agreed to expand short-term oil production, with a planned boost of 411,000 barrels per day in July now set to weigh on global prices. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
06:54 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Hovers around 1.3550, support appears near nine-day EMA
The GBP/USD pair retraces its recent gains, trading around 1.3540 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a persistent bullish bias as the pair moves upwards within an ascending channel pattern.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/USD may find a primary barrier at 1.3616, the highest level since February 2022.A bullish bias prevails as the 14-day RSI remains above the 50 mark.The initial support appears at the nine-day EMA of 1.3526.The GBP/USD pair retraces its recent gains, trading around 1.3540 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a persistent bullish bias as the pair moves upwards within an ascending channel pattern.The GBP/USD pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a stronger short-term price momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above 50, reinforcing a bullish bias.On the upside, the GBP/USD pair may test the resistance at 1.3616, reached on June 5, the highest level since February 2022. A break above this level could strengthen the bullish sentiment and support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 1.4160.The GBP/USD pair may find the primary support at the nine-day EMA of 1.3526, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary at 1.3500. A successful break below this crucial support zone could cause the emergence of the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3307, followed by the nine-week low at 1.3063, recorded on April 14.GBP/USD: Daily Chart British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.18% 0.06% 0.19% 0.03% -0.16% -0.09% 0.09% EUR -0.18% -0.11% -0.02% -0.11% -0.31% -0.26% -0.06% GBP -0.06% 0.11% 0.04% -0.01% -0.20% -0.12% 0.05% JPY -0.19% 0.02% -0.04% -0.13% -0.38% -0.36% -0.18% CAD -0.03% 0.11% 0.00% 0.13% -0.21% -0.15% 0.06% AUD 0.16% 0.31% 0.20% 0.38% 0.21% 0.07% 0.25% NZD 0.09% 0.26% 0.12% 0.36% 0.15% -0.07% 0.20% CHF -0.09% 0.06% -0.05% 0.18% -0.06% -0.25% -0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
06:49 Indonesia Foreign Reserves remains unchanged at $152.5 in May
Indonesia Foreign Reserves remains unchanged at $152.5 in May
06:13 EUR/USD slips below 1.1400 mark amid notable USD strength, downside seems limited
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's move higher and attracts fresh sellers near the 1.1435 region during the Asian session on Tuesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/USD meets with a fresh supply on Tuesday amid the emergence of some USD buying. US fiscal concerns and Fed rate cut bets should cap the USD gains, and support the major.The ECB's relatively hawkish outlook could support the EUR and warrants caution for bulls.The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's move higher and attracts fresh sellers near the 1.1435 region during the Asian session on Tuesday. The intraday slide is sponsored by a goodish pickup in the US Dollar (USD) demand and drags spot prices back below the 1.1400 round figure in the last hour.Friday's stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report dampened hopes for imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts this year. This, along with the optimism over the resumption of US-China trade talks, prompts traders to lighten their USD bearish bets, which, turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair. However, with negotiations extending to a second day in London, traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets.Furthermore, traders are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs in September. This, along with concerns about the US government's financial health, might cap further USD appreciation and act as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) hinted at the end of rate cuts during a meeting held last week. This could further benefit the shared currency and contribute to limiting losses for the currency pair. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the release of US inflation figures this week. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the vicinity of the 1.1500 psychological mark, or the highest level since April 22 touched last week. In the absence of any relevant macro releases, either from the Eurozone or the US, the EUR/USD pair remains at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.22% 0.10% 0.25% 0.04% -0.02% 0.14% 0.14% EUR -0.22% -0.10% 0.02% -0.14% -0.21% -0.07% -0.05% GBP -0.10% 0.10% 0.04% -0.04% -0.11% 0.04% 0.06% JPY -0.25% -0.02% -0.04% -0.17% -0.29% -0.17% -0.18% CAD -0.04% 0.14% 0.04% 0.17% -0.08% 0.08% 0.10% AUD 0.02% 0.21% 0.11% 0.29% 0.08% 0.17% 0.17% NZD -0.14% 0.07% -0.04% 0.17% -0.08% -0.17% 0.02% CHF -0.14% 0.05% -0.06% 0.18% -0.10% -0.17% -0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
05:40 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hovers around $36.50 near 13-year highs
Silver price (XAG/USD) halts its three-day winning streak, trading around $36.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday.
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Prices of precious metals, including Silver, receive downward pressure from weakened safe-haven demand amid rising hopes for a cooldown in the United States’ (US) latest broad tariff tensions with China.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentions discussions held on Monday as a “good meeting.” At the same time, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted them as “fruitful,” increasing expectations of progress in improving relations between the two countries.Officials from the US and China are expected to meet again on the second day on Tuesday at 10.00 a.m. in London. Trade talks will continue as the world’s two largest economies look to ease tensions over shipments of technology and rare earth elements, per Bloomberg.The non-yielding Silver gained support, possibly driven by Citigroup’s forecasts on Monday, expecting the Fed may deliver a 25 basis point rate cut each in September, October, and December. The firm also expects the central bank to cut 25 basis points each in January and March 2026.However, the recent stronger jobs data from the United States (US) raised the expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its next two monetary policy meetings. Traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, scheduled to be released on Wednesday, seeking fresh insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary outlook. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
05:38 Japanese Yen dives to nearly two-week low against a broadly recovering USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday as the optimism over the resumption of US-China trade talks undermines safe-haven assets.
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday as the optimism over the resumption of US-China trade talks undermines safe-haven assets. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, lifts the USD/JPY pair beyond the 145.00 psychological mark, to a nearly two-week top in the last hour. However, a combination of factors might hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive directional bets and cap gains for the currency pair. Against the backdrop of signs of broadening inflation in Japan, an upward revision of the Q1 GDP reaffirmed bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates. This marks a big divergence in comparison to a relatively dovish Federal Reserve (Fed), which should cap the USD and benefit the lower-yielding JPY. Furthermore, persistent trade-related uncertainties and rising geopolitical tensions support prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the JPY. Japanese Yen is undermined by US-China trade talks optimismTop US and Chinese officials will meet for a second day in London on Tuesday for negotiations aimed at resolving the ongoing trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies. Investors remain hopeful of a breakthrough over export controls for goods, such as rare earths, which remains supportive of a positive risk tone and undermines the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Data released on Monday showed that Japan's economy contracted at a slower pace than initially estimated, by 0.2% annualized rate during the January-March quarter, sparking optimism about the outlook. This, in turn, reaffirms market bets that the Bank of Japan will continue normalizing rates amid sticky inflation and should help limit any meaningful downfall for the JPY. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the central bank will raise interest rates if it has enough confidence that the underlying inflation nears 2% or moves around 2%. If the economy and prices come under strong downward pressure, the central bank has limited room to underpin growth with interest rate cuts, with short-term rate still at 0.5%, Ueda added further.A stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday dampened hopes for imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This assists the US Dollar to regain positive traction following the previous day's modest slide and pushes the USD/JPY pair back closer to the 145.00 psychological mark during the Asian session on Tuesday.Traders, however, are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs in September. Furthermore, Trump intensified his pressure campaign and urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates by a full percentage point. This, along with concerns about the US government's financial health, might cap further USD appreciation. According to Ukraine's air force, Russia launched a massive airstrike on Ukraine and fired nearly 500 drones and missiles, marking a further escalation of the conflict in the three-year-old war. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, which should hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets and act as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair ahead of US inflation figures. USD/JPY might now aim to reclaim the 146.00 round figure
From a technical perspective, the overnight bounce from sub-144.00 levels, or the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, and the subsequent move up favors the USD/JPY bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. Hence, some follow-through strength towards the 145.60-145.65 intermediate hurdle, en route to the 146.00 round figure, looks like a distinct possibility. The momentum could extend further towards the 146.25-146.30 region, or May 29 swing high. On the flip side, the 145.00 mark now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 144.60-144.55 region. This is closely followed by the 144.25 area (200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart), below which the USD/JPY pair could retest sub-144.00 levels. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively would negate the positive outlook and shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
From a technical perspective, the overnight bounce from sub-144.00 levels, or the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, and the subsequent move up favors the USD/JPY bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. Hence, some follow-through strength towards the 145.60-145.65 intermediate hurdle, en route to the 146.00 round figure, looks like a distinct possibility. The momentum could extend further towards the 146.25-146.30 region, or May 29 swing high. On the flip side, the 145.00 mark now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 144.60-144.55 region. This is closely followed by the 144.25 area (200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart), below which the USD/JPY pair could retest sub-144.00 levels. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively would negate the positive outlook and shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
04:56 BoJ’s Ueda: Will raise rates if we have enough confidence that underlying inflation nears 2%
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday, “we will raise interest rates if we have enough confidence that underlying inflation nears 2% or moves around 2%.”
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Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday, “we will raise interest rates if we have enough confidence that underlying inflation nears 2% or moves around 2%.”Additional quotesIf economy, prices come under strong downward pressure, BoJ has limited room to underpin growth with rate cuts with short-term rate still at 0.5%.
Underlying inflation still below 2%.
BOJ keeping real interest rate negative so underlying inflation achieves 2%, and keeps inflation sustainably and stably at 2%.Market reactionUSD/JPY stages a solid comeback following these comments, currently trading 0.30% higher on the day at 145.00. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.20% 0.13% 0.29% 0.06% 0.06% 0.15% 0.19% EUR -0.20% -0.06% 0.07% -0.11% -0.12% -0.05% 0.01% GBP -0.13% 0.06% 0.08% -0.05% -0.06% 0.01% 0.08% JPY -0.29% -0.07% -0.08% -0.20% -0.26% -0.22% -0.18% CAD -0.06% 0.11% 0.05% 0.20% -0.01% 0.06% 0.13% AUD -0.06% 0.12% 0.06% 0.26% 0.01% 0.09% 0.13% NZD -0.15% 0.05% -0.01% 0.22% -0.06% -0.09% 0.06% CHF -0.19% -0.01% -0.08% 0.18% -0.13% -0.13% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Underlying inflation still below 2%.
BOJ keeping real interest rate negative so underlying inflation achieves 2%, and keeps inflation sustainably and stably at 2%.Market reactionUSD/JPY stages a solid comeback following these comments, currently trading 0.30% higher on the day at 145.00. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.20% 0.13% 0.29% 0.06% 0.06% 0.15% 0.19% EUR -0.20% -0.06% 0.07% -0.11% -0.12% -0.05% 0.01% GBP -0.13% 0.06% 0.08% -0.05% -0.06% 0.01% 0.08% JPY -0.29% -0.07% -0.08% -0.20% -0.26% -0.22% -0.18% CAD -0.06% 0.11% 0.05% 0.20% -0.01% 0.06% 0.13% AUD -0.06% 0.12% 0.06% 0.26% 0.01% 0.09% 0.13% NZD -0.15% 0.05% -0.01% 0.22% -0.06% -0.09% 0.06% CHF -0.19% -0.01% -0.08% 0.18% -0.13% -0.13% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
04:45 Australian Dollar consolidates following Westpac Consumer Confidence data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, extending its gains for the second successive day. The AUD/USD pair receives support from hopes for a cooldown in the United States’ (US) latest broad tariff tensions with China.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar holds ground ahead of the second meeting between US-China advisors on Tuesday.Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence increased 0.5% MoM in June, down from May’s 2.2% rise.US Consumer Price Index is expected to climb by 2.5% YoY in May, above April’s 2.3% rise.The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, extending its gains for the second successive day. The AUD/USD pair receives support from hopes for a cooldown in the United States’ (US) latest broad tariff tensions with China. Any economic update from China could impact AUD as China and Australia are close trade partners.US-China advisers are expected to meet again on a second day on Tuesday at 10.00 a.m. in London. Trade talks will continue as the world’s two largest economies look to ease tensions over shipments of technology and rare earth elements, per Bloomberg.Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence rose 0.5% month-over-month in June, sharply falling from the 2.2% gain in May. The ongoing uncertainty over global trade weighed on sentiment. However, it was the fourth monthly increase this year, driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) May rate cut and signs of easing inflation.Australian Dollar remains steady as US Dollar moves little amid economic uncertaintyThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is remaining steady at around 99.00 at the time of writing. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is slated for Wednesday, with expectations of a rise of 2.5% YoY in May.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 139,000 in May compared to the 147,000 increase (revised from 177,000) in April. This reading came in above the market consensus of 130,000. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%, and the Average Hourly Earnings remained unchanged at 3.9%, both readings came in stronger than the market expectation.US President Donald Trump called upon, in a post published on Truth Social on Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell to lower the policy rate. "ADP NUMBER OUT!!! “Too Late” Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES," Trump said.On Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that the labor market is showing some signs of slowing down. However, persistent uncertainty prevails over the economy, and the Fed must stay in wait-and-see mode to assess how the economy responds to the uncertainty.House Republicans passed Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” a multitrillion-dollar tax and spending package, which could increase the US fiscal deficit, along with the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. This scenario raises concerns over the US economy and prompts traders to sell American assets under the “Sell America” trend. Policy experts anticipate Senate changes as GOP lawmakers aim to finalize the “big bill” by July 4.The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped at an annual pace of 0.1% in May, following April’s 0.1% decline. However, the market consensus was for a 0.2% decrease in the reported period. Meanwhile, China’s CPI inflation declined by 0.2% MoM, against April’s 0.1% increase. China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to weaken with an annual decline of 3.3% in May, following a 2.7% decline in April.China's Trade Balance (CNY) arrived at CNY743.56 billion in May, expanding from the previous surplus of CNY689.99 billion. Meanwhile, Exports rose 6.3% YoY against 9.3% in April. The country’s imports fell 2.1% YoY in the same period, from a 0.8% rise recorded previously.Australia’s Trade Balance posted a 5,413M surplus month-over-month in April, below the 6,100M expected and 6,892M (revised from 6,900M) in the previous reading. Exports declined by 2.4% MoM in April, against a 7.2% rise prior (revised from 7.6%). Meanwhile, Imports rose by 1.1%, compared to a decline of 2.4% (revised from -2.2%) seen in March. China’s Caixin Services PMI rose to 51.1 in May as expected, from 50.7 in April.Australian Dollar hovers above 0.6500 near seven-month highsThe AUD/USD is trading around 0.6520 on Tuesday. The daily chart’s technical analysis suggests a persistent bullish bias as the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern. Moreover, the pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which indicates the short-term price momentum is stronger. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also remaining above the 50 mark, suggesting a bullish bias.The AUD/USD pair targets an immediate barrier at a seven-month high of 0.6538, marked on June 5. Further advances could prompt the pair to explore the region around the eight-month high at 0.6687, aligned with the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6690.On the downside, the primary support appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.6489, aligned with the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6480. A break below this crucial support zone could weaken the bullish bias and lead the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6412.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.12% 0.07% 0.19% 0.02% 0.00% 0.04% 0.10% EUR -0.12% -0.04% 0.05% -0.07% -0.10% -0.08% 0.00% GBP -0.07% 0.04% 0.04% -0.03% -0.05% -0.03% 0.05% JPY -0.19% -0.05% -0.04% -0.15% -0.23% -0.24% -0.18% CAD -0.02% 0.07% 0.03% 0.15% -0.04% -0.00% 0.08% AUD -0.00% 0.10% 0.05% 0.23% 0.04% 0.04% 0.11% NZD -0.04% 0.08% 0.03% 0.24% 0.00% -0.04% 0.09% CHF -0.10% -0.00% -0.05% 0.18% -0.08% -0.11% -0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:43 China’s Vice President Han says ready to work with the EU
China's Vice President Han Zheng said on Tuesday that the Chinese government is ready to work with the European Union to further expand areas of cooperation and promote new development in China-EU relations.
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China's Vice President Han Zheng said on Tuesday that the Chinese government is ready to work with the European Union to further expand areas of cooperation and promote new development in China-EU relations. Key quotesChina will carry out bilateral and multilateral cooperation projects to support small island states, and other developing countries in implementing sustainable development goals.
Says attendance at the United Nations Ocean Conference shows his support for the United Nations and the French side.
China is ready to work with the EU to further expand areas of cooperation and promote new development in China-EU relations.Market reaction At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading 0.12% lower on the day at 1.1408. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Says attendance at the United Nations Ocean Conference shows his support for the United Nations and the French side.
China is ready to work with the EU to further expand areas of cooperation and promote new development in China-EU relations.Market reaction At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading 0.12% lower on the day at 1.1408. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
04:32 NZD/USD extends the rally above 0.6050 as US-China trade talks continue
The NZD/USD pair extends its upside to near 0.6055 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) amid hope of US-China trade talks. The second day of trade talks will be in the spotlight on Tuesday.
NZD/USD gathers strength to around 0.6055 in Tuesday’s Asian session.Trade talks between the US and Chinese officials were set to resume Tuesday.
The RBNZ might slow the pace of rate cuts as uncertainty grows. The NZD/USD pair extends its upside to near 0.6055 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) amid hope of US-China trade talks. The second day of trade talks will be in the spotlight on Tuesday. Investors are optimistic about the negotiations between the US and China, even though there’s no significant breakthroughs were announced after the first day of talks. US President Donald Trump said that the talks “should go very well.” US officials noted that it indicated to remove restrictions on some tech exports in exchange for assurances that China is easing limits on rare earth shipments, which are critical to a wide array of energy, defense and technology products. Expectations about the US-China trade talks as officials struck a positive tone after the first day of negotiations underpin the China-proxy Kiwi as China is major trading partner of New Zealand. Additionally, rising bets that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will slow the pace of interest rate cuts as uncertainty grows might contribute to the NZD’s upside “While the RBNZ downgraded its economic forecasts compared to February and emphasized the high degree of uncertainty around global conditions, there was a surprising amount of caution around the timing and extent of further OCR cuts,” said Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon.
The RBNZ might slow the pace of rate cuts as uncertainty grows. The NZD/USD pair extends its upside to near 0.6055 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) amid hope of US-China trade talks. The second day of trade talks will be in the spotlight on Tuesday. Investors are optimistic about the negotiations between the US and China, even though there’s no significant breakthroughs were announced after the first day of talks. US President Donald Trump said that the talks “should go very well.” US officials noted that it indicated to remove restrictions on some tech exports in exchange for assurances that China is easing limits on rare earth shipments, which are critical to a wide array of energy, defense and technology products. Expectations about the US-China trade talks as officials struck a positive tone after the first day of negotiations underpin the China-proxy Kiwi as China is major trading partner of New Zealand. Additionally, rising bets that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will slow the pace of interest rate cuts as uncertainty grows might contribute to the NZD’s upside “While the RBNZ downgraded its economic forecasts compared to February and emphasized the high degree of uncertainty around global conditions, there was a surprising amount of caution around the timing and extent of further OCR cuts,” said Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon.
04:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions: 0 (May) vs previous 2
Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions: 0 (May) vs previous 2
04:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence increased to 2 in May from previous -1
Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence increased to 2 in May from previous -1
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1840 vs. 7.1855 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1840 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1855 and 7.1853 Reuters estimate.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1840 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1855 and 7.1853 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
03:41 Japan’s Kato says will conduct fiscal policy appropriately
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that he will appropriately conduct fiscal policy.
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that he will appropriately conduct fiscal policy.Key quotes
Seeking more Japanese Government Bond holdings by domestic investors
Will make efforts toward appropriate Japanese Government Bonds management
Crucial to seek Japanese Government Bond holdings by diverse groups
Says will appropriately conduct fiscal policy.
Need for a variety of investors to hold JGBs.
Need to broaden investors in Japanese Government Bonds.
Need to start promoting domestic ownership of JGBsMarket reaction At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.01% lower on the day at 144.53.
Seeking more Japanese Government Bond holdings by domestic investors
Will make efforts toward appropriate Japanese Government Bonds management
Crucial to seek Japanese Government Bond holdings by diverse groups
Says will appropriately conduct fiscal policy.
Need for a variety of investors to hold JGBs.
Need to broaden investors in Japanese Government Bonds.
Need to start promoting domestic ownership of JGBsMarket reaction At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.01% lower on the day at 144.53.
03:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence declined to 0.5% in June from previous 2.2%
Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence declined to 0.5% in June from previous 2.2%
03:26 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD posts modest gains above $3,300 as traders await US-China trade talks
The Gold price ( XAU/USD) posts modest gains to near $3,325 during the early Asian session on Tuesday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD). Investors await the ongoing US-China trade talks on Tuesday for fresh catalysts.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price trades with mild gains around $3,325 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.US and China trade officials are scheduled to meet in London on Tuesday. China’s central bank added gold to its reserves in May for the seventh straight month. The Gold price ( XAU/USD) posts modest gains to near $3,325 during the early Asian session on Tuesday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD). Investors await the ongoing US-China trade talks on Tuesday for fresh catalysts.Trade talks between the United States (US) and China are scheduled to meet for a second day in London. US President Donald Trump said that the talks “should go very well.” US officials noted that it indicated to remove restrictions on some tech exports in exchange for assurances that China is easing limits on rare earth shipments, which are critical to a wide array of energy, defense and technology products. Easing trade tensions could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. “In the short term, if there is a positive outcome of the meeting, it could be a little negative for gold, but not too much,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.On the other hand, the persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East might boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the yellow metal. Israel’s Foreign Ministry said that the detained crew of the Gaza-bound aid ship that was intercepted by Israel on Monday morning docked in the Israeli port of Ashdod Monday evening. Data over the weekend showed that the People's Bank of China (PBoC), China’s central bank, bought Gold for the seventh straight month in May. This, in turn, could contribute to the Gold price. PBoC’s gold reserves rose to 73.83 million fine troy ounces at the end of May from 73.77 million ounces at the end of April. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
02:50 Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) increased to 0.6% in May from previous 0.5%
Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) increased to 0.6% in May from previous 0.5%
02:34 GBP/USD hides in congestion ahead of key labor and inflation data
GBP/USD Held steady within recent consolidation on Monday, testing the waters near 1.3550.
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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:23 US-China trade talks to continue on Tuesday in London - Bloomberg
Trade talks between the United States (US) and China will continue into a second day as the world’s two largest economies look to ease tensions over shipments of technology and rare earth elements, per Bloomberg.
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Trade talks between the United States (US) and China will continue into a second day as the world’s two largest economies look to ease tensions over shipments of technology and rare earth elements, per Bloomberg. The US official stated that the advisers will meet again on Tuesday at 10.00 a.m. in London.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6517, up 0.01% on the day. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
02:12 USD/CAD holds steady near 1.3700, US-China trade talks in focus
The USD/CAD pair trades on a flat note near 1.3700 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Cooling tensions between the US and China could provide some support to the Greenback. US-China trade talks will extend to a second day and will be closely monitored.
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US and China will continue trade talks into a second day. Easing trade tensions and upbeat US May employment data could support the US Dollar. The USD/CAD pair trades on a flat note near 1.3700 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Cooling tensions between the US and China could provide some support to the Greenback. US-China trade talks will extend to a second day and will be closely monitored. A US official said that trade talks between the world’s two largest economies will continue into a second day. The US indicated a willingness to remove restrictions on some tech exports in exchange for assurances that China is easing limits on rare earth shipments. Easing trade tension could lift the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) in the near term. Furthermore, the stronger-than-expected US May employment report gave the US Federal Reserve (Fed) a way to caution, which might also boost the Greenback. Federal Fund Futures pointed to a larger possibility that the Fed may keep its benchmark interest rate steady until the September monetary policy meetings. On the other hand, a rise in Crude Oil prices might underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a headwind for the pair. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
02:01 Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.4%) in May: Actual (0.32%)
Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.4%) in May: Actual (0.32%)
02:01 Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (5.12%) in May: Actual (5.05%)
Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (5.12%) in May: Actual (5.05%)
02:00 South Korea Current Account Balance dipped from previous 9.14B to 5.7B in April
South Korea Current Account Balance dipped from previous 9.14B to 5.7B in April
01:24 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Extends win streak to four days, eyes on 166.00
EUR/JPY prolongs its rally to four straight days as Tuesday’s Asian session begins. At the time of writing, the cross-pair exchange hands at 165.16, up 0.06%, and is up 0.09% in the week so far.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/JPY trades at 165.16, up 0.06% early Tuesday, extending 4-day rally.RSI favors buyers, but lack of momentum points to wait-and-see mode.Break above 165.30 could expose Nov. 6 high at 166.09, then 167.00.Drop below 165.00 opens path to support at 164.03 and 163.60.EUR/JPY prolongs its rally to four straight days as Tuesday’s Asian session begins. At the time of writing, the cross-pair exchange hands at 165.16, up 0.06%, and is up 0.09% in the week so far.EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe EUR/JPY is neutral to upward biased, but so far, it has remained trapped within the 164.50-165.30 range for the last three days, indicating a lack of conviction among buyers and sellers regarding the cross-pair. Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that buyers are in control but are taking a respite, awaiting a fresh catalyst.If EUR/JPY clears the year-to-date high, this would pave the way for a test of the November 6 high at 166.09. Once surpassed, the next stop would be 167.00. On the other hand, if EUR/JPY tumbles beneath the 165.00 mark, look for a test of the Tenkan-sen at 164.03, followed by the Senkou Span A at 163.60.EUR/JPY Price Chart – Daily Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.01% -0.02% 0.01% -0.02% -0.01% -0.05% -0.03% EUR 0.00% -0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% -0.03% 0.00% GBP 0.02% 0.00% -0.06% 0.02% 0.02% -0.03% 0.01% JPY -0.01% 0.00% 0.06% -0.01% -0.06% -0.14% -0.12% CAD 0.02% -0.02% -0.02% 0.00% -0.01% -0.05% -0.01% AUD 0.01% -0.01% -0.02% 0.06% 0.00% -0.03% -0.01% NZD 0.05% 0.03% 0.03% 0.14% 0.05% 0.03% 0.04% CHF 0.03% -0.00% -0.01% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% -0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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