Forex News Timeline

23:59 Mexico’s Finance Minister ‘reasonably confident’ about fiscal projections – El Financiero
Mexico’s Finance Minister Edgar Amador noted that he is "reasonably confident" about the Treasury's fiscal and growth projections for the year.

23:30 Mexican Peso slips as US-China deal boosts USD, Banxico rate cut bets weigh
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is on the defensive against the US Dollar (USD) after developments over the weekend boosted the Greenback. A de-escalation of the US-China trade war, alongside expectations of a “large-sized” interest rate cut by the Banco de Mexico (Banxico), drove the USD/MXN pair higher.

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A de-escalation of the US-China trade war, alongside expectations of a “large-sized” interest rate cut by the Banco de Mexico (Banxico), drove the USD/MXN pair higher. At the time of writing, it trades at 19.58, up by 0.79%.Earlier on Monday, Washington and Beijing announced they’d reached an agreement to lower tariffs from 145% to 30% on China’s imports to the US, while the US reduced duties from 125% to 10% on its imports from China.In the meantime, Mexico’s industrial production figures for March improved on an annual basis but declined on a monthly basis, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (INEGI). Traders are awaiting Banxico’s monetary policy decision on May 15, in which the Mexican institution is expected to reduce rates for the seventh consecutive meeting.Recently, Mexico’s Finance Minister Edgar Amador Zamora said that he’s confident in meeting the fiscal goals despite trade risks. Meanwhile, Mexico’s Economy Minister, Marcelo Ebrard, announced that the USMCA revision will commence in the second half of 2025.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso treads water as US-China deal boosts USDMexico’s March Industrial Output dipped by 0.9% MoM, above estimates of -1.1%. On an annual basis, it rebounded from a 1.3% contraction and expanded by 1.9% YoY, exceeding forecasts of 1.5%.A Reuters poll revealed that most economists are expecting a 50-basis-point (bps) interest rate cut by Banxico. This would be the seventh consecutive meeting in which the central bank has lowered rates.Mexico’s inflation data for April, which expanded above expectations in both headline and core figures, would not prevent Banxico from prolonging its easing cycle.Worth noting that investors reduced their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might only cut rates twice instead of thrice, as revealed by data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The December 2025 fed funds rates futures contract shows that market players expect 57 basis points of easing.Therefore, monetary policy divergence between the Fed and Banxico might add pressure on the Peso and push USD/MXN exchange rate higher.Although Mexico’s economy narrowly avoided a technical recession, tariffs imposed on Mexican products, a reduced budget, and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to strain the country’s finances and impact the Peso.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso pressured as USD/MXN climbs towards 20-day SMAAfter hitting a new year-to-date (YTD) low of 19.41, USD/MXN climbed past the 19.50 area and reached a three-day high of 19.66, past the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 19.63, before retreating somewhat. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) surges sharply, indicating buyers are moving in.That said, USD/MXN next resistance would be the 20-day SMA. A breach of the latter will expose the May 6 high at 19.77, followed by the confluence of the 200 and the 50-day SMAs around 19.99. Once surpassed, traders would eye the 100-day SMA at 20.23.Conversely, if USD/MXN tumbles below 19.50, the first support would be the YTD low of 19.41, followed by the 19.00 mark. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

23:17 Australian Dollar under pressure as US-China trade talks shape global sentiment
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is facing downward pressure as global trade dynamics shift, particularly between the United States (US) and China.

22:10 Fed's Goolsbee: New tariffs are certainly less stagflationary than previous path
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee took a cautionary stance on the ever-evolving trade stance of the Trump administration on Monday.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee took a cautionary stance on the ever-evolving trade stance of the Trump administration on Monday. Lopsided, constantly-changing tariffs and trade strategies from the White House has thrown a very large wrench in plans for hiring and investment for many industries, pinning the Fed in a wait-and-see mode on interest rates.Key highlightsOn the US-China tariff reduction: It is definitely less impactful stagflationarily than the path they were on.

Yet it’s three to five times higher than what it was before, so it is going to have a stagflationary impulse on the economy. It’s going to make growth slower and make prices rise.

The way that we’re doing this is not free for the economy.

On hiring and investment by business contacts: the risk of trade agreements and tariff suspensions lapsing is preventing businesses from taking the leap.

Business' statements are coming with explicit recognition that this isn’t permanent and that it’s going to be revisited in the near future.

Part of those business announcements are explicitly putting off into the future major decisions.

If we could get the dust out of the air, it would make sense to think that rates would be going down.

The bar for action has to be high when there’s so much uncertainty.

22:01 Forex Today: All the attention shifts to US Inflation data
In a very positive start to the new trading week, the Greenback edged sharply higher following a fresh bout of optimism on the trade front, all after the auspicious US-China trade talks over the weekend.

In a very positive start to the new trading week, the Greenback edged sharply higher following a fresh bout of optimism on the trade front, all after the auspicious US-China trade talks over the weekend.Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, May 13:The Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded markedly and came just pips away from the key 102.00 barrier, or five-week highs, following the encouraging tone from the recent US-China trade discussions. Markets participants will focus on the US Inflation Rate, seconded by the NFIB Business Optimism Index, and the API’s weekly report on US crude inventories.EUR/USD collapsed to multi-week troughs near 1.1060 in response to the strong rebound in the US Dollar across the board. Attention now turns to the ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys in Germany and the euro area..GBP/USD slipped back to the 1.3140 region on the back of the strong resurgence of the bid bias around the Greenback. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor and the release of the labour market figures will take centre stage across the Channel.USD/JPY rose further and advanced to new six-week tops around the 148.60 zone following the improved sentiment around the US-China trade front. Traders’ focus will be on the release of the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions.AUD/USD broke below the 0.6400 support, resuming its decline amid the continuation of the strong rebound in the US Dollar. The Westpac Consumer Confidence survey, NAB Business Confidence, Building Permits, and Private House Approvals are all due in Oz.WTI gathered extra steam and flirted with three-week highs north of the $63.00 mark per barrel following auspicious news from the US-China trade front.Gold prices remained on the defensive and revisited the area of monthly lows near the $3,200 mark per troy ounce amid the stronger US Dollar, higher US yields and extra optimism on the US-China trade conflict. Silver prices managed to bounce off daily troughs below the $32.00 mark ounce, ending the day with just humble losses.

21:34 Canadian Dollar falls for a fourth straight session as markets get tariff tunnel vision
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) fell further on Monday, shedding around one-half of one percent against the US Dollar (USD) as investors broadly bid up the Greenback after the Trump administration proudly announced that they would be walking back their own triple-digit tariffs on Chinese imports.

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Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

21:12 US Dollar surges as trade war cools and Fed cuts get priced out
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, skyrocketed to a one-month high on Monday after China and the United States announced a 90-day pause in their trade war.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, skyrocketed to a one-month high on Monday after China and the United States announced a 90-day pause in their trade war. Both countries agreed to temporarily slash tariffs with the US lowering duties on Chinese goods to 30% from 145% and China reducing tariffs on US goods to 10% from 125%. This boost to risk appetite sent the Greenback sharply higher, especially against traditional safe havens like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc as investors bet on a potential long-term trade agreement.Daily digest market movers: Next focus on UkraineUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the 90-day tariff reduction agreement with China, easing immediate trade war fears.President Trump hinted at further talks with China’s President Xi Jinping later this week, keeping optimism alive.The Federal Reserve’s Adriana Kugler warned that sustained tariffs would shift global supply chains and complicate economic forecasting.The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield soared to 4.45%, widening the rate differential and supporting the USD.Rate markets have fully priced out Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2025, strengthening the Greenback further.The EUR and GBP fell sharply against the USD, dropping 1.5% and 1%, respectively, amid rising US yields.Safe haven currencies JPY and CHF underperformed, both losing nearly 2% against the USD on strong risk sentiment.Fed policymakers expect rates to stay unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% through June and July, delaying rate cuts until September.The market sees a 51.2% probability of the first Fed cut in September, with rates expected at 3.75%-4.00% by year-end 2025.Gold prices plunged over $100 per ounce, testing the May lows near $3,200 as safe haven demand weakens.WTI crude oil extended its recovery toward $75.00 per barrel, supported by improved global growth prospects.Copper remains flat, trading near the midpoint of its recent range despite improved risk sentiment.The US economic calendar is light with focus shifting to Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Thursday’s Retail Sales.Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on Thursday, potentially providing further clues on the central bank’s policy path.Market participants now turn their attention to geopolitical developments in Ukraine and the Middle East.

US Dollar Index technical analysis: Chart flashes bullish signals for DXY
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is flashing a bullish signal, trading around 102.00 with daily gains of approximately 1.00%. The index currently sits mid-range between strong support at 100.50 and key resistance near 102.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 50s, signaling neutral conditions, while the Moving Avearge Convergence Divergence (MACD) flashes a buy signal, indicating positive momentum. The Bull Bear Power near 2.00 and the Stochastic %K in the 80s confirm neutral-to-bullish sentiment, alongside a Commodity Channel Index reading of 270. Short-term moving averages favor buyers with the 20-daySimple Moving Average ( SMA) and both the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and SMA clustered around the 100.00 level. However, the longer-term 100-day and 200-day SMAs continue to suggest caution. Immediate support lies at 100.91, 100.88 and 100.73, while resistance is seen at 101.96, 102.08, and 103.43.

US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

21:07 USD/CAD extends gains on trade optimism, policy divergence, and upcoming US data
The US Dollar (USD) is trading higher against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) at the start of the week, supported by renewed risk appetite following a US–China trade agreement, diverging interest rate expectations, and anticipation of major US economic data.

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At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.3945, sustaining bullish momentum from Friday.US–China tariff pause lifts sentiment and supports the US DollarRisk sentiment improved after US and Chinese officials agreed to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, easing pressure on global supply chains and tempering fears of a near-term economic slowdown. While Canada is not directly involved in the agreement, the development has reinforced global demand expectations and strengthened the US Dollar by boosting market confidence.The trade truce has also bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its restrictive policy stance for longer, particularly as inflation remains above target and labor market resilience persists.Key US data and Fed speakers to guide USD/CAD directionThis week presents a dense macroeconomic calendar that could shape USD/CAD direction. On Tuesday, all eyes will be on the April US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Markets expect a 0.3% MoM increase in both the headline and core CPI, with YoY figures projected to remain steady at 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively.While CPI is a critical input for Fed policy, it is part of a broader narrative. The outlook will also be shaped by comments from several Fed officials, most notably Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to speak on Thursday. His remarks will follow earlier commentary from Governors Waller, Jefferson, and Daly earlier in the week.Together, these events will help clarify whether the Fed is inclined to maintain its current policy stance or consider cuts later this year. According to CME FedWatch, the first rate cut is now broadly expected in September, though this timeline remains highly sensitive to upcoming data.Canadian labor market signals underlying weaknessMeanwhile, domestic fundamentals continue to weigh on the Canadian Dollar. Friday’s labor market report from Statistics Canada showed a net employment gain of 7,400 jobs in April, above the 2,500 forecast. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 6.9%, the highest level since late 2023 outside of pandemic-related distortions.The report reveals signs of slack in the labor market, especially in the manufacturing sector, where job losses continue to accelerate. These trends have increased expectations for a potential Bank of Canada rate cut as early as June, further widening the policy divergence with the Fed and undermining support for the Loonie.USD/CAD near 1.40 as bullish momentum buildsUSD/CAD has broken above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the September 2024 to February 2025 rally, which sits at 1.3944. Price action is now confronting the 200-day moving average (currently at 1.4018), with the next resistance seen at the 50% retracement level at 1.4106.USD/CAD daily chartA sustained daily close above the 1.4018 area would reinforce bullish momentum and open the door toward the April high at 1.4415 and possibly the March high at 1.4536. However, short-term consolidation is possible given the strong run from the May low, especially with high-impact data and Fed commentary ahead.On the downside, support lies at 1.3944 (the broken Fib level), followed by the November 2024 low at 1.3823. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending higher and currently near 55.6, suggesting there is room for further gains before overbought conditions emerge. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

21:00 United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $258B, above expectations ($255B) in April
United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $258B, above expectations ($255B) in April

20:49 Gold price plunges over $100 as US-China deal fuels USD rally
Gold prices tumbled over 3% on Monday, following improvements in risk appetite after weekend discussions between the US and China, which agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD trades at $3,225, having hit a daily high of $3,326.

20:37 Dow Jones Industrial Average surges higher on US-China tariff walkback
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) soared on Monday, rising over a thousand points and climbing back above the 42,000 handle for the first time since early April.

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Steep (albeit temporary) cuts to triple-digit tariffs going in both directions between the United States (US) and China have bolstered investor confidence that the Trump administration will continue to grind away at its own trade policy stance.Markets get a tariff reprieve…for nowThe US and China both agreed to trim their tit-for-tat tariffs on all imports going in both directions for the next 90 days. The US will continue to charge a flat 10% “universal” tariff, as well as an additional 20% tacked on due to the fentanyl epidemic. Despite the amount of US spending on policing and border control, the Trump administration continues to lay responsibility for the drug crisis at the feet of foreign governments. China has agreed to trim its tariffs on US goods to 10% for the 90-day period.Tariff cuts come at a crucial time: the first batch of US inflation data that includes the start of the Trump administration’s sweeping ‘reciprocal’ tariffs is set to be released this week. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the month of April will be released on Tuesday, with median market forecasts expecting an uptick in both headline and core CPI inflation measures for the month. YoY CPI is still expected to hold steady over the previous annualized period, with core CPI forecast to hold flat at 2.8% YoY.Core CPI inflation has remained stuck above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target inflation rate of 2% for four straight years. Despite coming down significantly from a decades-long peak of 6.6% in 2022, the Fed has struggled to deliver interest rate cuts as quickly as markets would like them. Progress on getting inflation down to target has largely stalled out, according to policymakers at the Fed, and market expectations of a rate cut as early as July have tumbled. Rate cut hopes get pushed back another monthThe majority of rate traders now expect the Fed to continue holding policy rates flat until at least September. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in nearly 60% odds that the Fed will stay the course in July, a sharp reversal from better-than-even of a quarter-point rate cut on July 30 that persisted until as recently as last week.Read more stock news:NASDAQ futures surge 4% as Trump curtails China tariffs for 90 daysNike stock holds onto rally after lowered China tariffsDow Jones price forecastMonday’s tariff-off rally has bolstered the Dow Jones back above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,500 for the first time since early April and pushed the DJIA north of the 42,000 major price handle in the process. The Dow has recovered nearly 16% after bottoming out near 36,600 following the post-tariff announcement plunge on April 2. However, the major equity index is still 6% away from reclaiming all-time highs north of the 45,000 level.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

20:00 EUR/CAD Price Analysis: Euro steadies near 1.5600 as bearish pressure builds
The EUR/CAD pair traded near the 1.5600 zone on Monday, reflecting a minor loss after the European session as selling pressure persisted. The pair remains within the middle of its daily range, suggesting cautious sentiment as traders assess the broader outlook.

EUR/CAD trades around the 1.5600 zone after a modest decline in Monday’s session.Short-term indicators confirm bearish sentiment, while longer-term trends remain mixed.Key support levels hold below, while resistance clusters just above the current range.The EUR/CAD pair traded near the 1.5600 zone on Monday, reflecting a minor loss after the European session as selling pressure persisted. The pair remains within the middle of its daily range, suggesting cautious sentiment as traders assess the broader outlook. While short-term momentum remains tilted to the downside, longer-term trend indicators provide a more supportive backdrop, adding complexity to the current technical picture.From a technical standpoint, the pair exhibits a generally bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index sits in the 40s, reflecting balanced momentum without immediate oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence confirms the bearish tone with a clear sell signal, aligning with the broader short-term trend. Meanwhile, the Ultimate Oscillator also holds in the 40s, reinforcing the neutral-to-bearish outlook, while the Bull Bear Power and Stochastic %K remain in neutral territory, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum.Short-term trend indicators further support the downside bias. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average and 10-day Simple Moving Average both sit above the current price and slope downward, reinforcing immediate resistance. The 20-day Simple Moving Average also trends lower, adding to the selling pressure. In contrast, the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages remain well below current levels, suggesting that broader structural support persists despite the recent pullback.Support levels are identified at 1.5549, 1.5369, and 1.5264. Resistance is found at 1.5617, 1.5627, and 1.5633. A sustained break below the immediate support zone could accelerate the decline, while a recovery above resistance would be needed to challenge the prevailing bearish outlook.Daily Chart

19:37 BoE's Taylor: Tariff shock was bigger than anyone expected
Bank of England's external Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor noted a prevailing sense of precaution and concern among firms, adding that the tariff shock had been larger than anticipated.

Bank of England's external Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor noted a prevailing sense of precaution and concern among firms, adding that the tariff shock had been larger than anticipated.Key QuotesErosion of business confidence in UK has continued in REC and PMI surveys.There is a sense of precaution and concern.Tariff shock was bigger than anyone expected.Although there are signs of a pause, we don't know where it will go.Wage settlements data is coming in in line with expectations for slower wage growth.If you wait for every piece of data to confirm a fall in inflation, you will be behind the curve.International dimension is quite perilous.We are a long way from neutral level of interest rates.Neutral rate for me is 2.75–3% in the UK.Central forecast of BoE had 'quite mild' treatment of global trade situation.

19:30 USD/CHF rallies as US-China Trade Truce Lifts Dollar Sentiment
The USD/CHF pair is trading higher, supported by a broad rally in the US Dollar following a significant breakthrough in US-China trade relations.

USD/CHF trades higher as the US Dollar strengthens on news of a 90-day tariff reduction deal between the US and China.The US 10-year Treasury yield hits 4.4500%, boosting USD demand, while Swiss franc lags amid reduced safe-haven flows.Key support levels for USD/CHF are 0.8910, 0.8880, and 0.8850, while resistance sits at 0.9050, 0.9080, and 0.9110.The USD/CHF pair is trading higher, supported by a broad rally in the US Dollar following a significant breakthrough in US-China trade relations. The two countries have agreed to a 90-day pause in their trade war, with the US cutting tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% (from 145%) and China reducing its duties to 10% (from 125%). This move has bolstered market sentiment, driving the US Dollar Index (DXY) up over 1% to its highest level in a month, near 101.90. The rally comes despite Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler's warning that rapid shifts in trade policy have made it difficult for policymakers to assess the underlying strength of the US economy.The US Dollar has received significant support from rising bond yields, with the 10-year US Treasury yield pushing to 4.4500%, reflecting reduced expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Market sentiment remains bullish as investors digest the implications of the 90-day tariff truce, which has temporarily eased pressure on global trade flows. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model currently projects Q2 growth at 2.30% SAAR, highlighting the resilience of the US economy despite ongoing challenges.In contrast, the Swiss franc has lagged, reflecting reduced safe-haven demand as the global risk environment improves. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to face headwinds as it manages the impact of a strong currency on its export-oriented economy. The Swiss franc's recent underperformance against the US Dollar underscores this dynamic, with the EUR/CHF also trading higher near 0.9384.Technical AnalysisThe USD/CHF is displaying a bullish signal, currently trading around 0.9000, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing immediate support. The pair has cleared the critical 0.8910 level, which now acts as the first line of support, followed by 0.8880 and 0.8850. On the upside, resistance is seen at 0.9050, 0.9080, and 0.9110.Momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in the mid-60s, reflecting neutral to slightly bullish conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is signaling continued upward momentum, reinforcing the positive technical outlook. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains subdued in the low 20s, suggesting that the current uptrend lacks strong conviction.Daily Chart

18:39 Brent Crude Oil surges on US–China agreement and easing recession fears
Brent Crude Oil has extended gains at the start of the trading week, buoyed by a temporary easing in geopolitical tensions and improving macroeconomic sentiment.

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The move follows an agreement between the United States (US) and China to reduce and suspend certain tariffs for a 90-day period—an initiative widely seen as a de-escalation of trade hostilities and a potential catalyst for global economic stabilization.The bilateral tariff truce is currently the principal driver of risk appetite across commodities and equities. China, as one of the world’s largest importers of Brent-linked crude oil, stands to benefit directly from more favourable trade conditions, thereby reinforcing demand expectations. The suspension of tariffs is expected to support cross-border industrial activity and fuel-intensive sectors such as manufacturing, logistics, and shipping, all key components of global oil consumption.Although the arrangement is temporary and may be subject to renegotiation or reversal, its immediate impact has been to reduce fears of a global economic slowdown. This improvement in sentiment has translated into broad-based strength in risk-sensitive assets, including crude oil.CPI data and US inventory reports to guide Brent price trajectoryBrent Crude’s short-term direction now hinges on key upcoming data releases, with traders closely monitoring indicators that could impact demand expectations and broader market sentiment.Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to play a pivotal role. As a critical gauge of inflation, the CPI influences expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. A stronger-than-expected inflation print may reinforce expectations for a prolonged restrictive stance by the Fed, potentially exerting downward pressure on crude by strengthening the US Dollar and dampening demand. Conversely, a softer CPI reading may bolster commodities by supporting risk sentiment.In addition, crude oil traders will be watching this week’s inventory data for signs of underlying demand strength. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly report on Tuesday, followed by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday. While these reports primarily pertain to West Texas Intermediate (WTI), their implications for US consumption patterns and market balance remain highly relevant for Brent pricing.A greater-than-anticipated draw in stockpiles would suggest tightening supply conditions and could provide further upward momentum for Brent. On the other hand, a surprise build may temper recent gains by signalling oversupply.Brent Crude faces psychological resistance at $66Brent Crude briefly rallied to a session high of $66.87 during early European trade before paring gains slightly. The move pushed prices above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $63.84 and approached—but did not surpass—the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 move, at $67.21. The 50-day SMA at $67.45 also remains untested, acting as a significant technical ceiling.Brent Crude Oil daily chart
Immediate resistance is now seen at $66.87, with stronger resistance between $67.20 and $67.45—a zone that combines Fibonacci and moving average levels. A confirmed break above this range would likely open the door toward $69.98, which represents the 50% retracement of the year-to-date decline and closely aligns with the psychological $70.00 threshold.On the downside, first support lies at the 20-day SMA ($63.84), followed by more significant support at the 61.8% long-term Fibonacci retracement at $62.11, measured from the April 2020 low to the March 2022 high.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is holding near 51, suggesting neutral momentum with potential for further upside if key resistance levels are cleared. Brent remains within a short-term recovery channel, although sustained gains above the 50-day SMA would be necessary to confirm a breakout.
Brent Crude Oil FAQs What is Brent Crude Oil? Brent Crude Oil is a type of Crude Oil found in the North Sea that is used as a benchmark for international Oil prices. It is considered ‘light’ and ‘sweet’ because of its high gravity and low sulfur content, making it easier to refine into gasoline and other high-value products. Brent Crude Oil serves as a reference price for approximately two-thirds of the world's internationally traded Oil supplies. Its popularity rests on its availability and stability: the North Sea region has well-established infrastructure for Oil production and transportation, ensuring a reliable and consistent supply. What factors drive the price of Brent Crude Oil Like all assets supply and demand are the key drivers of Brent Crude Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of Brent Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of Brent Crude Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of Brent Crude Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of Brent Crude Oil OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact Brent Crude Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

18:39 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro drifts near 1.1100 as bearish momentum builds
The EUR/USD pair traded near the 1.1100 zone on Monday, reflecting a sharp drop after the European session as sellers gained control. The pair remains within the middle of its daily range, suggesting that while bearish pressure is dominant, the market lacks a clear breakout signal.

EUR/USD trades around the 1.1100 zone after a sharp decline in Monday’s session.Short-term indicators confirm bearish sentiment despite conflicting long-term signals.Key support levels hold below, while resistance clusters just above the current range.The EUR/USD pair traded near the 1.1100 zone on Monday, reflecting a sharp drop after the European session as sellers gained control. The pair remains within the middle of its daily range, suggesting that while bearish pressure is dominant, the market lacks a clear breakout signal. The technical landscape is mixed, with short-term signals aligning more closely with the downside, while longer-term indicators offer a more supportive backdrop.From a technical standpoint, the pair is flashing a bearish overall signal. The Relative Strength Index sits in the 40s, reflecting neutral conditions without immediate oversold pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence, however, prints a firm sell signal, confirming the recent downside momentum. The Awesome Oscillator hovers around zero, indicating neutral momentum, while the Ultimate Oscillator also remains in the 30s, reinforcing the cautious tone.Short-term trend indicators lean heavily bearish. The 10-period Exponential and Simple Moving Averages both sit near the current price and slope downward, reinforcing immediate selling pressure. In contrast, the longer-term 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages remain well below the current zone and continue to slope upward, suggesting that broader structural support remains in place despite the recent pullback.Support levels are identified at 1.1082, 1.1073, and 1.0909. Resistance is found at 1.1192, 1.1202, and 1.1225. A sustained move below the immediate support zone could accelerate the decline, while a recovery above resistance would be needed to challenge the prevailing bearish outlook.Daily Chart

18:38 Fed's Kugler: Still expect increase in prices and slowdown in the economy
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said that if tariffs prove to be long-lasting, she would focus on how global supply chains are rearranged in response, while she acknowledged that the recent reduction in US-China tariffs was clearly an improvement in bilateral trade relations, though tariff l

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said that if tariffs prove to be long-lasting, she would focus on how global supply chains are rearranged in response, while she acknowledged that the recent reduction in US-China tariffs was clearly an improvement in bilateral trade relations, though tariff levels remained relatively high.Key QuotesIf tariffs long lasting, the one issue I would be looking to is how supply chains get rearranged in the rest of the world.US/China tariff reduction obviously an improvement as far as trade between countries go, still pretty high.Still expect increase in prices and slowdown in economy though not to same rate as before.My basic outlook may have changed in terms of extent to which we need to use our tools, but not direction.Extent of uncertainty may have gone down a bit, extent of supply shock.I am one of those who believes there could be some permanency from price increases related to tariffs.Given really tight labour market post-pandemic, many businesses reluctant to let people go.

18:20 GBP/USD crashes on US-China trade truce boosting US Dollar
The Pound Sterling collapsed by over 0.71% or 90 pips on Monday, following developments over the weekend that boosted the US Dollar. News of the US-China de-escalation of the trade war weighed on Sterling, which plummeted from around 1.3298. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3207.

17:45 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Sees more downside below 200-day EMA
The NZD/USD pair tumbles to near 0.5870 during North American trading hours on Monday. The Kiwi pair falls sharply as the demand for the US Dollar (USD) has increased after the comments from Washington signaled that the trade war between the United States (US) and China has been averted.

17:31 Fed’s Kugler: Progress on disinflation has slowed
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said on Monday that Fed officials were finding it difficult to assess the underlying strength of the economy, citing rapid shifts in trade policy and the resulting impact on households and businesses that had rushed to purchase imported goods earlier in the ye

17:14 Trade thaw undermines ley Gold drivers – TDS
Developments on trade over the weekend were as close to an about-face as one could have hoped for, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Developments on trade over the weekend were as close to an about-face as one could have hoped for, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Gold bears need $3050 break for CTA liquidation"This is an attack on both fronts of our framework describing the ultimate drivers of buying activity in Gold markets— the East fears currency depreciation most, the West fears recession/stagflation most, and an about-face on trade significantly alleviates both these fears. In turn, Gold markets are likely to see less buying activity over the coming weeks, but we argue that prices will display a surprising resilience." "After all, CTAs won't meaningfully sell their Gold exposure without a severe drawdown towards $3050/oz. Discretionary traders and macro funds are sitting net flat in Gold. A significant portion of the recent rise in ETF holdings is associated with a shift in institutional investors' strategic allocations, which is unlikely to change over the coming months." "Unless macro funds build a notable net short position, this leaves Western retail ETF holders and Chinese ETF holders as the most vulnerable cohorts. However, central bank buying activity is likely to remain resilient nonetheless, offering a significant offset to any such selling activity. The worst case scenario for Gold hit the tapes less than 24h ago, and selling exhaustion already appears likely. Selling downsides is the most direct expression for this set-up."

17:04 President Trump: We achieved total reset with China
President Donald Trump said on Monday that he may speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week, as negotiations between the two economic powers show signs of progress toward a potential trade agreement.

President Donald Trump said on Monday that he may speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week, as negotiations between the two economic powers show signs of progress toward a potential trade agreement.Key QuotesUS ready to help India-Pakistan with trade.Soon will negotiate with Pakistan.We achieve total reset with China.Agreement doesn't cover tariffs on cars, steel, aluminium or pharmaceuticals.Talks in Geneva were friendly.Will speak to Xi (Jinping) at the end of the week maybe.China agreed to open up.China to suspend non-monetary barriers.Good things can come from Russia-Ukraine meeting.China has agreed to stop fentanyl.

16:59 AUD/USD turns upside down to near 0.6400 after US-China trade truce
The AUD/USD pair gives back initial gains and turns negative during North American trading hours on Monday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD weakens as the US Dollar gains after the US and China agree to lower tariffs.The US and China reduced tariffs by 115% for a 90-day period.This week, investors will focus on the Aussie employment data for April.The AUD/USD pair gives back initial gains and turns negative during North American trading hours on Monday. The Aussie pair slides to near 0.6390 as the US Dollar (USD) surges after the United States (US) and China agree to roll back higher import duties imposed after the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump on the so-called Liberation Day on April 2.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surrenders some of its initial gains after struggling to extend its upside above 101.95. Still, it is over 1% up from its Friday close around 101.50, at the time of writing.In a scheduled briefing, the US and China announced a 90-day pause in the ongoing tariff war. Both nations reduced tariffs by 115%. Still, the 20% fentanyl levy in import duty on China is intact. However, Washington signaled that constructive discussions are on to resolve the same.The temporary truce between the US and China is expected to force market experts to revise their global economic outlook. This has led to a sharp rally in equities across the globe. The S&P 500 has opened with robust gains of about 2.6%, indicating a significant increase in the risk appetite of investors.Considering the strength in the US Dollar, the downside in the Aussie pair is lower as the Australian Dollar (AUD) has also attracted bids on de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China. Given that the Australian economy relies heavily on its exports to China, the Aussie Dollar is outperforming other peers. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.19% 0.81% 1.27% 0.65% 0.44% 0.77% 0.93% EUR -1.19% -0.25% 0.61% -0.05% -0.13% 0.06% 0.22% GBP -0.81% 0.25% 1.04% 0.20% 0.13% 0.23% 0.47% JPY -1.27% -0.61% -1.04% -0.62% -1.44% -1.35% -0.57% CAD -0.65% 0.05% -0.20% 0.62% 0.06% 0.11% 0.27% AUD -0.44% 0.13% -0.13% 1.44% -0.06% 0.09% 0.32% NZD -0.77% -0.06% -0.23% 1.35% -0.11% -0.09% 0.13% CHF -0.93% -0.22% -0.47% 0.57% -0.27% -0.32% -0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Domestically, the AUD will be influenced by the employment data for April, which will be released on Thursday. The labor market data is expected to show that the Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1%. The Australian economy is estimated to have added 25K fresh workers, lower than 32.2K in March. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

15:52 EUR tumbles 1.5% on the day – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is weak, down 1.5% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and seeing its largest one day decline since early November, around the time of the US election, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Euro (EUR) is weak, down 1.5% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and seeing its largest one day decline since early November, around the time of the US election, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Yield moves in Europe fail to keep pace with US"The outlook for relative central bank policy is pressuring the EUR as relief over the US/China trade détente forces a continued reassessment of the outlook for Fed easing with markets paring back at least 10bpts of cuts by December." "European bond markets are also showing losses (yield gains) but are failing to keep pace with those observed in the US. In terms of data, this week’s highlight will be the ZEW investor sentiment release scheduled for Tuesday. There are also at least 10 ECB speaking engagements scheduled for this week and we’ll be watching to see if policymakers maintain their dovish bias."

15:47 CAD is down ‘only’ 0.3% vs. USD and a relative outperformer – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is weak, down 0.3% vs. the US Dollar (USD) but a relative outperformer against all of the G10 currencies with the CAD’s peer currencies showing much greater declines in response to the US/China trade détente, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is weak, down 0.3% vs. the US Dollar (USD) but a relative outperformer against all of the G10 currencies with the CAD’s peer currencies showing much greater declines in response to the US/China trade détente, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Markets focus on spreads"Fundamentals are shifting against the CAD, with a continued widening in US-Canada yield spreads as markets pare back their expectations for Fed easing. Our FV estimate for USDCAD has climbed to 1.3922 and the estimate is likely to show further gains as trading in Canadian bonds gets underway." "For the CAD, near-term movement is likely to continue to be driven by broader developments and the market’s tone. The recovery in spread correlations is notable and reflects a clear return to fundamentally-driven movement in the CAD. Domestically, this week’s release calendar is limited to building permits, housing starts, and manufacturing sales data toward the end of the week." "USD/CAD has climbed to fresh local highs with a clear break of the prior range high around 1.3900. The September-February rally continues to frame the important technical levels to watch, and the break of the 61.8% retracement (1.3944) now shifts our focus to the midpoint of the range just above 1.4100. The RSI has broken above 50, into bullish territory, and is confirming the moves in spot. For support, we look to the 1.3900-1.3850 area."

15:45 USD surges on US/China détente as markets reprice Fed cuts – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is up broadly with meaningful gains against all of the G10 currencies as markets respond to the de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China.

The US Dollar (USD) is up broadly with meaningful gains against all of the G10 currencies as markets respond to the de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China. Both countries will temporarily lower their tariffs for 90 days—the US to 30% and China to 10%—in order to provide time for negotiations as they seek to reach a lasting agreement, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD surging vs. all G10 currencies as markets fade pricing of Fed cuts"The safe havens JPY and CHF are underperforming as we head into Monday’s NA session with both down nearly 2% vs. the USD. The EUR is down nearly 1.5%, while SEK and GBP are down closer to 1%. These moves are sizeable, leaving the CAD and AUD as relative outperformers with declines of ‘only’ 0.3% vs. the USD. The broader tone is one of strong risk appetite with broad gains across Asian and European equity indices as US equity futures gap higher with a 3% gain. In bonds, the US 10Y yield is extending its postFed climb and pushing toward 4.45% - well above its April 30 close just above 4.15%." "The US 2Y yield is also up an impressive 11bpts on the day—reflecting a significant reassessment of the outlook for Fed cuts—and providing the USD with considerable fundamental support via spreads as yield increases in other developed government bond markets fail to keep pace. In commodities, WTI is extending its recent recovery from its recent double bottom ~$55/bbl with a measured move that implies a medium-term push to $75/bbl. Copper is trading flat within a short-term descending channel around the midpoint of its recent range. Finally, gold prices are also weak and trading in tandem with the safe haven currencies." "The price of gold is down over $100/oz and threatening the May 1 low just above $3200. The recent double top in gold implies a medium-term push toward $3050/oz. Monday’s US data release calendar is limited to the federal budget balance figures for April, ahead of Tuesday’s CPI and Thursday’s retail sales—both for the month of April. The Fedspeak calendar includes at least 10 speaking engagements this week, including Fed Chair Powell on Thursday."

15:40 USD/JPY surges on US-China tariff Truce, hits 144+ – Rabobank
News that the US and China have reached an agreement that substantially lowers trade tariffs between them for 90 days has sparked a wave of optimism that has supported risky assets and weighed on safe havens.

News that the US and China have reached an agreement that substantially lowers trade tariffs between them for 90 days has sparked a wave of optimism that has supported risky assets and weighed on safe havens. In line with this, the JPY is the worst performing G10 currency on a 1 session view, having declined almost 1.6% vs. the greenback. We have anticipated that this quarter will bring short covering in favour of the USD. That said, we expect that JPY bulls will prevent the move extending much beyond current levels and we maintain a 12-month forecast of USD/JPY140, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes. JPY weakest G10 performer as risk-on wave hits safe havens"The USD is the worst performing G10 currency in the year to date. Since Trump’s tariffs announcement on April 2, the USD has appeared to perform as a risky asset. Upholding this theme, the greenback’s value has bounced today on trade deal optimism. That said, we see the USD’s weak performance this year as related to the build-up of long USD positions over the past few years as investors sought out US ‘exceptionalism’ trades. Fears that the US may face recession on the back of Trump’s tariff policy caused ‘exceptionalism’ trades to deflate rapidly which has left the USD on the back foot.""Last week, the UK became the first country to announce a limited trade agreement with the US. A month ago there was speculation that this accolade may have been taken by Japan. As we have argued many times on this page, Japan has a relatively strong hand going into trade talks with the US since it is the largest provider of FDI. It also has strong relationship with the US on defence issues and views itself as a collaborator in tech. That said, the timing of the July Upper House elections in Japan adds some complexity to the trade talks particularly since PM Ishiba has very low approval ratings.""The tightening in monetary conditions implied by this year’s JPY gains also counters the need for the BoJ to rush into further rate hikes. That said, a rapid unwind of JPY gains would boost rate hike hopes, thus we would expect JPY buyers to limit upside potential in USD/JPY near-term. In our view, scope for short covering in favour of the USD is set to support the greenback this quarter. However, on the assumption that the US and Japan find a compromise on trade, we would expect the downtrend in USD/JPY to re-emerge in H2. We maintain a 12-month forecast of 140.00"

15:16 Gold drops as US-China tariff reduction weighs on safe-haven demand
Gold prices are under significant pressure in Monday’s session, weighed down by improving global risk sentiment and a strengthening US Dollar (USD).

15:00 Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1.9%, above forecasts (1.5%) in March
Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1.9%, above forecasts (1.5%) in March

14:59 Mexican Peso weakens as US-China trade deal lifts US Dollar demand
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is trading lower against the US Dollar (USD) during Monday’s European session, weighed down by rising demand for the Greenback following a breakthrough in US–China trade talks and ongoing Banco de Mexico (Banxico) policy easing.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Mexican Peso weakens as the US Dollar strengthens on US-China trade deal optimism.The US-China trade deal to lower tariffs for 90 days lifts demand for the Greenback.USD/MXN tests trendline resistance after rebounding from May lows.Banxico is expected to cut rates as the Fed holds steady, narrowing the yield gap and supporting USD/MXN rise.The Mexican Peso (MXN) is trading lower against the US Dollar (USD) during Monday’s European session, weighed down by rising demand for the Greenback following a breakthrough in US–China trade talks and ongoing Banco de Mexico (Banxico) policy easing.At the time of writing, USD/MXN is trading around 19.52, up 0.37% on the day, as investors shift focus to Thursday’s Banxico policy decision and broader implications of US tariff policy on Mexican exports.US–China truce lifts demand for the US Dollar, weighs on the PesoOn Monday, the United States and China announced a 90-day suspension of escalating tariffs, providing a temporary reprieve to global trade tensions. The deal has boosted market sentiment and eased concerns over a US-led recession, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have more room to keep interest rates elevated if economic conditions remain firm.In contrast, Mexico’s economy remains under pressure from existing US tariffs on aluminium, steel, and autos. These 25% import duties have increased the cost of Mexican goods in US markets, threatening competitiveness and placing strain on export-driven industries. Local data and commentary from policymakers have increasingly reflected these challenges, showing signs of a broader economic slowdown.In response, Banxico has pursued a dovish monetary path, cutting interest rates at six consecutive meetings to support growth and mitigate external pressures. A further 50 basis-point (bps) cut is expected at Thursday’s rate decision, which would further narrow the interest rate differential between Mexico and the US.Mexican Peso daily digest: Mexican Industrial Output in focusMexican industrial output data for March, scheduled for release at 12:00 GMT, will be closely watched for signs of strain in Mexico’s manufacturing sector. Weaker-than-expected figures could reinforce expectations for further Banxico easing and weigh on the Peso.With US yields remaining elevated and Mexico’s policy outlook turning increasingly accommodative, capital flows have continued to favour the US Dollar, exacerbating downside pressure on the Peso.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva over the weekend, where both sides reported progress. He described the talks as “candid and constructive,” while the US said “substantial progress” was made toward resetting trade relations. The US agreed to cut tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% for 90 days, providing relief to global supply chains.Beijing committed to lowering tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% and announced the suspension of key retaliatory countermeasures.At 14:25 GMT, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will speak at the NABE-Central Bank of Ireland Symposium in Dublin, with investors watching for policy signals amid a steady economic backdrop.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 92.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in June, with the first 25 bps rate cut now only priced for September.In contrast, Banxico has cut rates at six consecutive meetings and is expected to continue easing, adding pressure on the Peso via a narrowing interest rate differential.USD/MXN tests trendline resistance USD/MXN remains confined within a narrow consolidation range above the key support at 19.42, with price action largely sideways in early May trading. The pair is currently testing a descending trendline resistance drawn from the April high, aligning closely with the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.58, which has capped multiple upside attempts over the past two weeks.USD/MXN continues to oscillate within a horizontal consolidation zone roughly between 19.42 and 19.65, with a cluster of candles suggesting indecision as bulls attempt to reclaim short-term control. A breakout above the trendline could signal a bullish reversal, potentially opening the path toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, drawn from the April 9 high of 21.08 to Monday’s low of 19.42, at 19.81, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement as the next resistance level at 20.05.USD/MXN daily chartOn the downside, failure to break above trendline resistance could see renewed selling pressure, with key support holding at 19.42 (April low) and further downside risk toward 19.30–19.20 if the zone fails.Momentum remains neutral to slightly bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, currently reading 41.16, still below the 50 midpoint, reflecting weak buying pressure. A sustained RSI move above 50 would be needed to confirm improving bullish momentum. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

14:56 GBP: The strongest story in G10? – ING
This will be a busy week in the UK data calendar, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

This will be a busy week in the UK data calendar, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.EU-UK summit on 19 May may keep EUR/GBP under pressure"On Tuesday, we'll get the latest jobs figures. The job market is cooling but not significantly weakening after recent tax hikes. Last month's payroll drop might be revised up, and while unemployment is expected to rise, the figures have known reliability issues. Crucially, wage growth should slow, easing pay pressures.""On Thursday, the first-quarter GDP report will be released. February's GDP surged by 0.5%, and despite a potential pullback in March, the first quarter should show solid growth. This is partly due to volatile manufacturing numbers. The second quarter will likely be more subdued, but overall growth should be supported by government spending.""The pound has received support from an improved trade picture for the UK (i.e., deals with the US and India and upcoming negotiations with the EU) as well as from a hawkish-leaning Bank of England. Positioning imbalances, improved risk sentiment, and the upcoming EU-UK summit on 19 May may well keep EUR/GBP pressure, with a break below 0.840 now appearing increasingly likely."

14:52 USD/CNH struggles below 50-DMA resistance near 7.28 – Société Générale
USD/CNH remains under pressure after failing to reclaim the 50-DMA, with downside risks intensifying should the 7.18 support give way, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

USD/CNH remains under pressure after failing to reclaim the 50-DMA, with downside risks intensifying should the 7.18 support give way, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Momentum stalls as pair tests interim floor at 7.18"USD/CNH breached the lows of March resulting in a deeper pullback towards an interim low near 7.18 formed earlier this month. A brief rebound has materialized however the pair has so far failed to overcome the 50-DMA near 7.27/7.28. This is a short-term resistance zone.""If the bounce peters out near this hurdle, the phase of decline could extend. Below 7.18, next objectives could be located at projections of 7.14 and 7.11/7.10."

14:33 EUR/GBP extends losing streak on sluggish US-EU trade talks
The EUR/GBP pair extends its losing streak for the sixth trading day on Monday. The pair slides to near 0.8415 during European trading hours as the Euro (EUR) weakens after the announcement of a 90-day tariff pause by the United States (US) and China earlier in the day.

14:30 US Dollar soars to one-month high on US-China deal to temporarily lower tariffs
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, jumps more than 1% on Monday after China and the United States (US) agreed to a 90-day pause in their trade war by slashing tariffs on both sides.

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The euphoria comes after both countries agree to slash tariffs for 90 days following two days of talks in Switzerland. The US Dollar Index pops to 101.50, benefiting from the relief in US-China tensions. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, jumps more than 1% on Monday after China and the United States (US) agreed to a 90-day pause in their trade war by slashing tariffs on both sides. After a weekend of discussion, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the defusing of the trade war between the two nations: China will lower its tariffs on US goods to only 10% from the original 125%, while the US will do so to 30% (from 145%) on Chinese goods, both for 90 days, Bloomberg reports. The news sent the US Dollar to its highest level in one month.Several correlations are kicking in again on the back of this event, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hitting 4.45%. The rate differential gap between the US and other countries sees the Greenback being valued higher against the local currencies of countries with lower yields. The repercussion of this correlation could be that Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2025 get fully priced out. Daily digest market movers: Agenda to be ignored due to trade dealUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced during a press conference in Switzerland the breakthrough between the US-China trade war has led to a pause of 90 days and the lowered reciprocal tariffs for both parties. Bessent went on by saying that both countries want to defuse the situation and said that a possibility of a China purchasing agreement could be possible, Bloomberg reports. At 14:25 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank Governor Adriana Kugler delivers a speech on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics and the Central Bank of Ireland's International Economic Symposium, in Dublin, Ireland.Around 18:00 GMT, the Loan Officer Survey (SLOOS) for the first quarter is due. The report often tells more about the lending circumstances in the US for households and small businesses. Equities see the US futures outshine all other indices. European equities are up by roughly 1.50%, while US futures are seeing between 3% to even 4% gains. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June’s meeting at just 7.9%. Further ahead, the July 30 decision sees odds for rates being lower than current levels at 44.1%.The US 10-year yields trade around 4.45%, edging higher towards levels not seen since the beginning of April, and reducing rate cut bets for 2025.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Stage 1 completedBulls are returning to support the US Dollar Index (DXY), and they are leaving an impressive mark. The DXY pops over 1% higher and is nearing that pivotal 101.90 level that could unlock a return back to the moving averages. It will depend on whether the beginning of the US session causes a second wave of US Dollar buying. On the upside, the DXY’s first resistance comes in at 101.90, which acted as a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024. In case Dollar bulls push the DXY even higher, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 102.37 comes into play. On the other hand, the previous resistance at 100.22 is now acting as firm support, although the 97.73 support could also be tested on any substantial bearish headline. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

14:16 Copper jumps on trade optimism – ING
Copper and other industrial metals rose this morning, with easing trade tensions giving metals markets a boost. At a briefing following the talks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said neither nation wanted their economies to decouple.

Copper and other industrial metals rose this morning, with easing trade tensions giving metals markets a boost. At a briefing following the talks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said neither nation wanted their economies to decouple. This marks a substantial cooling of trade tensions between the US and China; however, questions remain for markets as to what the end game will be, as the measure will be operational for 90 days, and what the eventual level of tariffs will be. Uncertainty is still high, and volatility is likely to remain elevated across commodities markets, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Gold has dropped more than 2% this morning"Trading in metals has been volatile since US President Donald Trump's inauguration, with this volatility mostly driven by both comments made by the President and tariff risks. In April, copper saw its worst performance since mid-2022, as signs began to emerge of trade starting to hurt economies, with the US contracting in the first quarter and manufacturing in China’s factory activity showing the biggest contraction since December 2023. Gold, meanwhile, has dropped more than 2% this morning as easing trade tensions between the US and China impacted its safe haven status while the dollar rallied. A ceasefire between India and Pakistan has also buoyed risk sentiment and weighed on gold prices. Still, gold is up by more than 20% so far this year, with Trump’s unpredictable trade policy the key driver for gold so far in 2025.""The latest data from the Shanghai Futures exchange (SHFE) shows that weekly inventories for all base metals (except lead) fell over the reporting week. Copper stocks fell by 8,602 tonnes for a seventh consecutive week to 80,705 tonnes as of last Friday, the lowest since the week ending on 10 January 2025. The decline was largely driven by recent US tariffs diverting a large flow of copper inventories into the US. Among other metals, aluminium inventories fell by 6,192 tonnes for a sixth straight week to 169,665 tonnes (the lowest since the week ending on 9 February 2024). Nickel and zinc inventories also fell by 3% week-on-week and 2.8% WoW respectively. In contrast, lead inventories rose by 2,718 tonnes for a second consecutive week to 49,504 tonnes.""The latest positioning data from the CFTC shows that speculators increased their net longs of COMEX copper by 3,325 lots for a fourth consecutive week to 23,338 lots as of 6 May. In precious metals, managed money net longs in COMEX gold decreased by 3,558 lots for a seventh straight week to 112,307 lots over the last reporting week, the least bullish bets since the week ending 27 February 2024. Money managers’ interest in gold remains muted amid record-high prices. Similarly, speculators decreased net longs of silver by 1,004 lots after reporting gains for three consecutive weeks to 30,248 lots as of Tuesday."

14:11 USD: Waiting on Bessent's update – ING
US President Donald Trump described this weekend's US-China meetings in Switzerland as 'very good' and said a 'total reset' is being negotiated. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led the negotiations and said 'substantial progress' has been made, and will share details today.

US President Donald Trump described this weekend's US-China meetings in Switzerland as 'very good' and said a 'total reset' is being negotiated. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led the negotiations and said 'substantial progress' has been made, and will share details today. Asset markets are again leaning on the optimistic side, and we think the baseline expectation is for an initial reduction in tariffs on China to 60%. Investors will weigh the new level of duties against the breadth of exemptions that are being discussed, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Trump hails 'Very Good' US-China trade talks in Switzerland"We have argued in recent weeks that the dollar likely requires a constant flow of positive news on trade de-escalation to keep recovering. The Trump administration has so far provided it, and while the dollar’s recovery hasn’t been nearly as spectacular as in equities, there is a strong sense that Trump’s pragmatic shift on trade has trimmed the tail risks for the greenback. The dollar’s solid momentum may be tested today as Bessent might fail to sell the progress in China negotiations to markets, and this week’s economic calendar presents a few more obstacles for further USD gains.""The key one is inflation, released tomorrow. This April CPI print may start showing some signs of price hikes, but our economist notes this is likely too early for the tariff effect to show, given the lag between implementation, shipping the product, and arriving in a warehouse before appearing in stores and online. We expect core CPI at 0.3% month-on-month, in line with consensus. A similar figure should show for April’s core PPI later this week, ultimately pointing to some lingering pressure on the Federal Reserve's preferred core PCE measure, but unlikely enough to trigger alarm bells for the central bank.""The dollar should continue to be pulled by these conflicting forces, and risks are starting to look finely balanced in both directions, looking a few weeks ahead. At the start of this week, scrutiny on the actual progress in US-China negotiations may lead to a softening of dollar momentum, but some decent support may start to form around 100.0 in DXY."

13:56 US Nat Gas opens lower on storage surplus – ING
US natural gas prices fell early Thursday as rising inventories outweighed modest weather-driven demand expectations, with the supply surplus building faster than anticipated, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

US natural gas prices fell early Thursday as rising inventories outweighed modest weather-driven demand expectations, with the supply surplus building faster than anticipated, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Second consecutive triple-digit build raises supply concerns"US natural gas prices opened lower today as the rising storage levels overshadowed the expectations of favourable weather conditions over the coming weeks. Last week, the EIA reported that the weekly inventories for natural gas rose more than average market expectations, taking the total stockpiles to 2.15Tcf, 1.4% above the five-year average." "This was the second straight triple-digit weekly inventory build; storage has flipped from a 230Bcf deficit in the first week of March to the current surplus. However, weather forecasts have turned slightly positive with the expectations of warmer weather across the northern and southern regions of the nation."

13:30 USD/JPY rallies above 148.00 as USD soars on US-China trade truce
The USD/JPY pair soars above 148.20 during European trading hours on Monday, the highest level seen in a month. The asset strengthens as the United States (US) and China have agreed to a 90-day truce after a two-day meeting in Switzerland over the weekend.

13:11 EUR/USD plummets as 90-day US-China trade truce strengthens US Dollar
EUR/USD plunges below 1.1100 during European trading hours at the start of the week.

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The major currency pair faces an intense selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rallies after the United States (US) and China, in a joint statement, announced a higher-than-expected reduction in tariffs for 90 days imposed in April.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surges to near 101.60.In a scheduled briefing during the European trading session on Monday, the US and China have agreed to lower tariffs by 115%. Tariffs on the US and China have dropped to 10% and 30%, respectively. Import duties on China still carry the burden of a 20% fentanyl levy, however, Washington has assured that it could be resolved soon. “Two sides are having constructive conversations on the issue of fentanyl,” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said.Ahead of the US-China trade talks in Geneva over the weekend, US President Donald Trump stated on Friday that he could lower tariffs on China to 80% through a post on Truth. Social. "80% Tariff on China seems right! It's up to Scott Bessent," Trump said.The next trigger for the US Dollar will be commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on the monetary policy outlook in the wake of de-escalation in the Sino-US trade war. Fed officials are expected to revise their outlook on interest rates as the averted tariff war would diminish elevated consumer inflation expectations.Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned in the press conference after the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged that tariffs announced were “significantly bigger than expected” and we will see “higher inflation, and lower employment” if large increases in tariffs as announced are “sustained”.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD plunges as US Dollar strengthensEUR/USD is down over 1% on Monday as the US Dollar surges after the US and China lowered tariffs. The Euro (EUR) trades mixed against other currencies as investors seek cues on how the temporary US-China trade truce will influence the Eurozone economic outlook. Ahead of the Sino-US trade talks, financial market participants anticipated that the trade war between the two largest world economic countries would be unfavorable for the shared continent, assuming that Beijing would move to other markets to sell its products to offset the impact of a trade war with Washington. Given China’s low-cost competitive advantage, its products could be disruptive for the global economy.Meanwhile, firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could continue the monetary policy expansion cycle in the wake of easing inflationary pressures might restrict the upside in the Euro. A string of ECB officials has signaled that more interest rate cuts are needed amid trade tensions with the US, while remaining confident that the disinflation trend is intact.Contrary to several officials supporting more interest rate cuts, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel has signaled that there is no need to reduce interest rates further. “The appropriate course of action is to keep rates close to where they are today – that is, firmly in neutral territory," Schnabel said in a conference at Stanford University on Friday. Schnabel warned of risks to inflation exceeding the central bank’s 2% target in the medium term amid global economic turmoil.On the economic front, the EUR/USD pair will be influenced by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which will be released on Tuesday. The inflation data is expected to show that the headline CPI rose steadily by 2.4% YoY. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD weakens on 20-day range breakdownEUR/USD declines on Monday after a breakdown of the 1.1200-1.1440 range formed in the last 20 trading days. The major currency pair extends its downside move below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.1200, indicating a bearish trend.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 40.00, suggesting that a fresh bearish momentum has been triggered.Looking up, the April 28 high of 1.1425 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the March 27 low of 1.0733 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

13:00 Oil gains on easing trade tensions – ING
NYMEX WTI is trading above $63/bbl, while ICE Brent was seen approaching $66/bbl on US-China trade talk optimism.

NYMEX WTI is trading above $63/bbl, while ICE Brent was seen approaching $66/bbl on US-China trade talk optimism. Meanwhile, the latest round of discussions between the US and Iran also concluded with both sides agreeing to further discussions and negotiations, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Oil holds gains on trade talk optimism"The latest data from Baker Hughes shows that drilling activity in the US slowed for the second consecutive week, as several US oil companies limit planned capital expenditures because of low oil prices. The number of active US oil rigs fell by five over the week to 474 as of 9 May 2025, the lowest since 24 January and 22 below the year-ago level. The total rig count stood at 578 over the reporting week, down from 584 a week earlier and 4% lower than the same time last year. Primary Vision’s frac spread count, which gives an idea of completion activity, decreased by six over the week to 195.""The latest positioning data shows that speculators decreased their net longs in ICE Brent by 12,383 lots for a second consecutive week to 97,558 lots as of last Tuesday, the least bullish bets since the week ending on 29 October 2024. This was driven predominantly by the rising short positions by 8,887 lots to 113,008 lots over the reporting week. Similarly, in the NYMEX WTI, speculators trimmed their net long by 10,094 lots (after reporting gains for three consecutive weeks) to 143,938 lots over the reporting week. This market continues to gauge the potential tariff impact on oil flows into the US."

12:57 EUR/USD pulls back from 1.1570 resistance – Société Générale
EUR/USD is under pressure as technical momentum fades, with the pair testing key trend support and downside risks building below the 50-day moving average near 1.1070, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

EUR/USD is under pressure as technical momentum fades, with the pair testing key trend support and downside risks building below the 50-day moving average near 1.1070, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Series of lower highs highlights weakening momentum"EUR/USD has experienced a gradual pullback after facing strong resistance at 1.1570 last month. It has formed a series of lower peaks and troughs in daily timeframe chart denoting receding upward momentum. This is also highlighted by daily MACD, which has dipped below its trigger line." "The pair is challenging the descending trend line drawn since 2023. A retest of the 50-DMA near 1.1070 can’t be ruled out. Failure to defend this may result in an extended decline towards March high of 1.1025/1.0950."

12:52 EUR: Still quite overvalued – ING
EUR/USD briefly printed below the 1.120 support in early trading. Should Bessent feed markets with convincing headlines on US-China talks today, a decisive break lower looks on the cards, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes

EUR/USD briefly printed below the 1.120 support in early trading. Should Bessent feed markets with convincing headlines on US-China talks today, a decisive break lower looks on the cards, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notesTrump pressures Russia to agree to agree to a 30-day truce"The pair is trading 3% off its 21 April peak, but remains around 3% overvalued according to our short-term fair value model. That misvaluation is largely justified by the short-term rate differentials, which continue to heavily favour the dollar. The current EUR/USD two-year swap rate spread of -170bp coincided with EUR/USD trading around 1.06 or below before Liberation Day. While it’s clear that spread is not the main driving force in current FX trading, further material de-escalations in trade wars and signs of resilience among US consumers despite tariffs can compress that risk premium further.""As mentioned in the USD section, we think risks are slightly skewed to a weaker dollar today as Bessent delivers his update on China. That may help strengthen the EUR/USD support around 1.12 while awaiting new trade and macro developments from the US. Anything happening in the eurozone on the macro side remains a secondary driver, although the ZEW surveys tomorrow can have some FX impact.""Geopolitical developments are also being monitored this week, although markets have now shown some reticence towards pricing in optimistic scenarios on Russia-Ukraine peace talks until some material progress is made. Trump has ramped up pressure on Russia to agree to a 30-day truce, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he’ll be 'waiting for' Putin in Turkey on Thursday. A breakthrough in peace negotiations will be beneficial for EUR/USD, but the extent of the impact will be highly dependent on the market’s assessment of the sustainability of any truce. There is a tangible chance markets will lean on the cautious side here."

12:46 Gold bleeds after US-China agree to major tariff reductions, easing fears of protracted trade war
Gold (XAU/USD) sinks more than 2.5% at the start of the European trading session and heads towards $3,233 at the time of writing as the talks between the US and China have brought some low-hanging fruit for the equity markets.

12:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:06 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD faces rejection near descending channel hurdle, around $33.00
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts heavy intraday selling in the vicinity of the $33.00 round figure and dives to over a one-week trough during the first half of the European session on Monday.

12:01 GBP/JPY extends rally to near 195.00 as safe-haven demand for Japanese Yen diminishes
GBP/JPY is extending its upward momentum for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 194.90 during European hours on Monday.

11:41 Pound Sterling tumbles against US Dollar as US and China lower tariffs for 90 days
The Pound Sterling (GBP) slumps to near 1.3170 against the US Dollar (USD) and trades near a one-month low on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling falls sharply below 1.3200 against the US Dollar after the US and China agree to reduce tariffs for 90 days by 115%.Lower US tariffs would pave the way for the Fed to cut interest rates.This week, investors will focus on the UK employment and the US CPI data on Tuesday.The Pound Sterling (GBP) slumps to near 1.3170 against the US Dollar (USD) and trades near a one-month low on Monday. The GBP/USD pair falls sharply as the US Dollar strengthens after the United States (US) and China agreed on a reduction in tariffs imposed in the trade war in April, which will come into effect on Wednesday, for 90 days.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surges to near 101.80, the highest level since April 10.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced in a scheduled briefing during European trading hours that both Washington and China have agreed to lower import duties by 115%, Reuters reported. This indicates that current levies on the US and China are 10% and 30%, respectively. Bessent stated that fentanyl issues have not been resolved yet. Therefore, tariffs on China still stand at 30%.The impact of the US-China trade resolution is favorable for the majority of asset classes across the globe, especially the US Dollar and US assets, which were dumped heavily when the trade war between the world's two largest economic countries stemmed after Beijing announced counter-tariffs. The Greenback came down by over 6% since US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on the so-called Liberation Day.Meanwhile, the resolution of the US-China trade war will also diminish elevated US consumer inflation expectations, a scenario that will pave the way for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume the monetary policy easing cycle, which it paused in January.Comments from Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and China’s Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang have signaled that both nations have made “substantial progress” in high-stakes trade talks in Geneva over the weekend.The two-day meeting between the US and its Chinese counterparts over the weekend in Switzerland has managed to defuse the ongoing Sino-US trade war. "I'm happy to report that we've made substantial progress between the US and China in the very important trade talks,” Bessent said, Yahoo Finance reported."We’re confident that the deal we struck with our Chinese partners will help us to work toward resolving the trade deficit,” US Trade Representative Greer said. On the other hand, China’s Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang said it would contain "good news for the world."Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling gains against its peers, except US DollarThe Pound Sterling trades higher against its major peers, except the US Dollar, at the start of the week. The British currency demonstrates firmness as the Bank of England (BoE) retained its “gradual and cautious” monetary expansion guidance in the policy announcement on Thursday.The BoE lowered its interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%, as expected, but with a vote split in which Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Catherine Mann and Chief Economist Huw Pill voted for leaving interest rates unchanged. On Friday, Pill clarified that his decision was based on expectations that longer-term domestic pressures might push up inflation, Reuters reported. Pill also downplayed the impact of global trade risk on the United Kingdom (UK) economy. “Not seeing a dramatic shift in the UK economy after tariff announcements,” Pill said.On the contrary, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned a few weeks back that the central bank should consider trade war risks.This week, the GBP/USD pair will be influenced by the UK employment data for the three months ending March and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which will be published on Tuesday. The UK labor market data is expected to show that the jobless rate accelerated and the wage growth grew at a slower pace. Meanwhile, the US core inflation is estimated to have grown at a faster pace on a monthly basis.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling breaks below H&S chart patternThe Pound Sterling slips below 1.3200 against the US Dollar at the start of the week. The pair's outlook has turned bearish on a breakdown of the Head and Shoulders (H&S) formation on a four-hour timeframe. A breakdown of the H&S chart pattern leads to a bearish reversal, and its formation near a critical resistance increases its credibility.The Cable slides to near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.3190, suggesting a bearish trend.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) declines below 40.00. Fresh bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI sustains below that level.On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3445 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the psychological level of 1.3000 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:31 USD/CAD advances to near 1.4000 following a 115% reciprocal reduction in US-China tariffs
USD/CAD continues its upward momentum for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 1.3980 during European hours on Monday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is also on the rise, hovering near 101.60 at the time of writing.

11:23 USD/CHF rallies to one-month top, beyond mid-0.8400s as US and China agree to lower tariffs
The USD/CHF pair builds on its modest gap-up opening at the start of a new week and gains strong positive traction during the early part of the European session.

11:17 BoE’s Lombardelli: Caution remains appropriate
Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli said on Monday, “caution remains appropriate” on policy outlook.

11:04 US Dollar Index (DXY) surges past 101.00, hits one-month top on US-China trade deal optimism
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, catches aggressive bids at the start of a new week and rallies to over a one-month top, around the 101.35-101.40 region during the early European session.

11:01 AUD/JPY surges to near 94.50 as joint statement confirms 90-day halt in tariff escalations
AUD/JPY climbed more than 1.50% during European trading hours on Monday, reaching around 94.60, driven by a more optimistic global trade sentiment following positive developments in US-China trade negotiations.

10:32 NZD/USD falls to near 0.5900 following a 90-day pause in US-China tariff escalation
NZD/USD remains under pressure, trading near 0.5900 during early European hours on Monday, despite an improved global trade mood following positive developments in US-China trade talks.

10:15 USTR Greer: Both sides very committed to the 90-day pause period
US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer is speaking at the scheduled briefing on the first round of high-level US-China trade talks held over the weekend in Geneva, Switzerland.

US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer is speaking at the scheduled briefing on the first round of high-level US-China trade talks held over the weekend in Geneva, Switzerland.Key quotesThere was mutual respect and understanding between both sidesEffective embargo was not a sustainable practice for both sides.Both sides are very committed to the 90-day pause period.Fentanyl issue remains unchanged for now.We ended up with a result that is very good for the US and for China.We have a constructive path forward to have a positive conversation with the Chinese.This agreement is about reciprocal tariffs which are now at 10% each.Fentanyl is on its own track but a very positive track, we are having very constructive conversations.

10:13 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates mixed at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

10:12 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: Both sides on reciprocal tariffs will move down 115%
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is speaking at the scheduled briefing on the first round of high-level US-China trade talks held over the weekend in Geneva, Switzerland.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is speaking at the scheduled briefing on the first round of high-level US-China trade talks held over the weekend in Geneva, Switzerland.Key quotesWe have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down tariff levels.Both sides on reciprocal tariffs will move down 115%.Very good personal interaction, both sides represented national interests well.

10:11 EUR/GBP edges lower below 0.8450 on dovish ECB tone
The EUR/GBP cross extends the decline to around 0.8435 during the early European session on Monday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) due to positive developments surrounding the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) trade agreement last week.

10:07 Breaking News: US to lower tariffs on China from 145% to a base 10%, 20% fentanyl levy for 90 days
The highly anticipated joint US-China statement on the first round of high-level US-China trade talks held over the weekend in Geneva, Switzerland, is out, stating that “the US will modify application of rate of duty on articles of China by suspending 24 percentage points of that rate for initial pe

The highly anticipated joint US-China statement on the first round of high-level US-China trade talks held over the weekend in Geneva, Switzerland, is out, stating that “the US will modify application of rate of duty on articles of China by suspending 24 percentage points of that rate for initial period of 90 days.”developing story ....

09:46 Palladium price today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $985.03 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $979.55.
In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $1002.60 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, pretty much unchanged after the XPT/USD pair settled at $1002.60 at the previous close.

09:33 Forex Today: Gold drops as risk flows dominate markets to start week
Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 19:

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 19:News of US and China making substantial progress in trade talks this past weekend lifts the risk sentiment on Monday. In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, investors will scrutinize the headlines surrounding the US-China relations and pay close attention to comments from central bankers. US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.95% -0.24% 0.91% 0.87% 0.27% 0.32% 0.99% EUR -0.95% -0.90% 0.25% 0.19% -0.40% -0.35% 0.31% GBP 0.24% 0.90% 0.91% 1.08% 0.50% 0.55% 1.22% JPY -0.91% -0.25% -0.91% -0.05% -0.64% -0.52% 0.18% CAD -0.87% -0.19% -1.08% 0.05% -0.89% -0.54% 0.12% AUD -0.27% 0.40% -0.50% 0.64% 0.89% 0.05% 0.71% NZD -0.32% 0.35% -0.55% 0.52% 0.54% -0.05% 0.66% CHF -0.99% -0.31% -1.22% -0.18% -0.12% -0.71% -0.66% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Following the first round of official talks between representatives from China and the US in Switzerland, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that they had "productive and constructive" discussions, while China's Vice Premier He Lifeng described the talks as "in-depth" and candid. Bessent is expected to share more details at 07:00 GMT on Monday. Reflecting the improving market mood, US stock index futures were last seen rising between 1% and 2%. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index stays in positive territory above 100.50 after ending the third consecutive week marginally higher. On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April.Gold remains under bearish pressure early Monday and trades at a fresh weekly low below $3,300.EUR/USD struggles to gain traction and stays in negative territory below 1.1250 to begin the European session.After starting the week with a small bullish gap, USD/JPY continues to stretch higher and trades at its strongest level in a month near 146.00.GBP/USD stays relatively quiet on Monday and fluctuates in a narrow channel at around 1.3300. The UK's Office for National Statistics will release April employment data on Tuesday.Despite the renewed USD strength, AUD/USD holds its ground and clings to modest daily gains above 0.6400 on Monday.USD/CAD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.3900 after rising nearly 1% in the previous week. The data from Canada showed on Friday that the Unemployment Rate rose to 6.9% in April from 6.7% in March. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

09:15 FX option expiries for May 12 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1190 998m1.1250 2.5b1.1350 1.2b1.1400 742mGBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3200 675m1.3315 731mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 142.45 800m145.00 3b145.65 1.1bUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8315 698mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6350 664mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3700 861m1.3800 1.2b

09:12 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.45 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $60.68.

08:40 EUR/JPY retreats slightly from one-week high, up a little below 164.00 amid weaker JPY
The EUR/JPY cross regains positive traction on Monday and jumps to over a one-week top, around the 164.20 area during the Asian session, though it lacks follow-through.

08:33 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $33.00 on M&A news, geopolitical tensions
Silver price (XAG/USD) is extending its gains for the third consecutive session, trading around $32.90 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday.

08:27 USD/CHF jumps to near 0.8350 on US-China trade hopes
The USD/CHF pair rises to near 0.8340 during the early European session on Monday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) edges lower against the Greenback amid easing concerns of a trade war between the United States (US) and China, the world's two biggest economies.

08:00 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bears await break below 1.1200 ahead of US-China joint statement
The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a weaker note amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, bolstered by the optimism over a US-China trade deal.

07:43 Gold price struggles near one-week low; US-China joint statement awaited
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts heavy selling on Monday and drops to a one-week low, around the $3,253-3,252 area during the Asian session on the back of US-China trade deal optimism.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price kicks off the new week on a weaker note in reaction to the optimism over the US-China trade deal.Easing US recession fears and the Fed’s hawkish pause underpin the USD, and further weigh on the commodity. The XAU/USD bears await details on the US-China agreement before positioning for any meaningful downside. Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts heavy selling on Monday and drops to a one-week low, around the $3,253-3,252 area during the Asian session on the back of US-China trade deal optimism. Positive signals from high-stakes US-China trade talks over the weekend in Switzerland boost investors' confidence and undermine demand for the traditional safe-haven bullion at the start of a new week. Furthermore, a modest positive development helps to ease market concerns about a recession in the US. This, along with the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish pause earlier this week, assists the US Dollar (USD) to stand firm near a multi-week top and turns out to be another factor exerting pressure on the commodity. The XAU/USD bears, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for further details on the US-China trade talks. In fact, neither side mentioned an agreement to cut US tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods and China's 125% tariffs on US goods. This, in turn, assists the Gold price to rebound around $30 from the daily low, making it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further depreciating move. Moving ahead, this week's release of the latest US inflation figures, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance on Thursday, will be looked for cues about the rate-cut path. This will influence the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bears look to seize control as trade optimism undermines demand for safe-haven assetsThe US and China ended high-stakes trade talks in Switzerland on a positive note on Sunday. In fact, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that a trade deal had been struck with China. Adding to this, China's Vice Premier He Lifeng said that the meeting achieved substantial progress, and reached consensus on key issues, triggering a fresh wave of global risk-on trade and undermining the safe-haven Gold price. The US Dollar holds steady near a one-month high amid the Federal Reserve's hawkish signal that it is not leaning towards cutting interest rates anytime soon, as traders await more details on the US-China trade agreement.China's Vice Premier He Lifeng said that a joint statement would be released in Geneva on Monday, and that it is going to be big news and good news for the world, which further adds to the latest market optimism. Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to hold direct talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy and stated that these talks should begin "without preconditions and delay" on Thursday, May 15. Meanwhile, Hamas said that the last living American hostage in Gaza, Edan Alexander, will be released and confirmed plans to hold direct talks with the US as part of efforts to reach a ceasefire and resume the delivery of aid.Traders this week will confront the release of US inflation figures. Apart from this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance on Thursday will be looked upon for cues about the future rate-cut path and a fresh impetus. Gold price seems vulnerable to weakening further; breakdown below the $3,295-3,290 confluence support comes into playFrom a technical perspective, any intraday breakdown and acceptance below the $3,295-3,290 confluence – comprising the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from the monthly low – could be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on hourly charts have been gaining negative traction and support prospects for a further intraday depreciating move for the Gold price. Some follow-through selling below the Asian session low, around the $3,253-3,252 region, will reaffirm the bearish bias and expose the monthly low, around the $3,200 mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which, if broken decisively, should pave the way for the resumption of the prior retracement slide from the $3,500 psychological mark, or the all-time peak touched in April. On the flip side, any recovery back above the $3,300 round figure now seems to attract fresh sellers near the $3,317-3,318 zone, or the Asian session peak. A sustained strength, however, might trigger a short-covering move and lift the Gold price to the $3,345-3,347 hurdle, representing the 38.2% Fibo. level. This is followed by the $3,360-3,365 static hurdle, which, if cleared decisively, would negate the near-term negative bias and set the stage for a move towards reclaiming the $3,400 mark. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 8,918.24 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,045.35 it cost on Friday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 104,020.50 per tola from INR 105,503.20 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,918.24 10 Grams 89,182.50 Tola 104,020.50 Troy Ounce 277,380.30 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:13 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Trades near 100.50, remains below channel’s upper boundary
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is losing ground for the second successive session, trading near 100.60 during the Asian hours on Monday.

06:28 USD/INR strengthens on rising India-Pakistan tensions
The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens on Monday, pressured by increasing tensions on the border between the nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan. The renewed US Dollar (USD) demand following the optimism between US-China trade talks and a jump in crude oil prices could drag the Indian currency lower.

06:08 USD/CAD steadies near 1.3950 as US Dollar receives support from trade optimism
USD/CAD is attempting to hold its position for the fourth consecutive session, hovering around 1.3940 during Monday’s Asian trading hours. The pair remains supported as the US Dollar (USD) gains strength following reported progress in US-China trade talks over the weekend in Switzerland.

06:05 WTI sits near two-week high, just below $61.00 as traders await US-China trade deal details
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices rise to a nearly two-week high during the Asian session on Monday, though bulls struggle to find acceptance or build on the momentum beyond the $61.00 mark.

05:45 Australian Dollar appreciates due to growing optimism after two-day US-China discussion
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is building on its recent momentum, rising against the US Dollar (USD) for a second straight session on Monday. The AUD/USD pair is benefiting from growing optimism around the US-China trade talks held in Geneva.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar is gaining support amid rising optimism over the US-China trade talks in Geneva.China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng called the negotiations “an important first step” toward stabilizing relations between the two countries.US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer described the talks as a step toward reducing the $400B trade imbalance.The Australian Dollar (AUD) is building on its recent momentum, rising against the US Dollar (USD) for a second straight session on Monday. The AUD/USD pair is benefiting from growing optimism around the US-China trade talks held in Geneva. As Australia maintains strong economic ties with China, developments in the Chinese economy often have a direct influence on the AUD. After two days of negotiations aimed at easing trade tensions, both the US and China reported “substantial progress.” China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng described the talks as “an important first step” toward stabilizing bilateral relations. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer called the discussions a constructive move toward narrowing the $400 billion trade imbalance.Adding to the focus on China, President Xi Jinping is set to speak at the opening ceremony of the fourth ministerial meeting of the China-CELAC Forum in Beijing on May 13. Looking ahead, traders are eyeing key Australian economic releases, including May’s Westpac Consumer Confidence and April’s NAB Business Conditions, both scheduled for Tuesday, which could offer fresh cues for the AUD. Investors are also focused on upcoming US data, with consumer inflation figures due Tuesday, followed by Retail Sales and Producer Price Index data on Thursday, as they gauge the early impact of the trade dispute on the broader economy.Australian Dollar advances due to progress in US-China trade talks The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is declining for a second consecutive day, hovering around 100.60 at the time of writing. However, the US Dollar found some support after the Trump administration reported progress in trade talks with China over the weekend in Switzerland.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the two-day discussions in Geneva with Chinese officials “productive,” adding that more information would be provided in a Monday morning briefing. At present, China is contending with US tariffs of 145%, while Beijing has responded with a 125% tariff on American exports.Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the 10% baseline tariff applied to other countries is expected to “remain in place for the foreseeable future.”Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, but its accompanying statement highlighted rising concerns about inflation and unemployment, adding a layer of uncertainty to the market outlook.Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a post-meeting press conference, warned that ongoing trade tariffs could hinder the central bank’s efforts to manage inflation and employment in 2025. He also suggested that persistent policy instability may prompt the Fed to take a more cautious, wait-and-see approach to future rate moves.China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined for the third consecutive month in April, falling 0.1% year-on-year, matching both the market forecast and the drop recorded in March, according to data released Saturday by the National Bureau of Statistics. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) contracted 2.7% YoY in April, steeper than the 2.5% drop in March and below the market expectation of a 2.6% decline.On the trade front, China posted a trade surplus of $96.18 billion in April, exceeding the forecast of $89 billion but down from March’s $102.63 billion. Exports rose 8.1% YoY, outperforming the expected 1.9% but slowing from the 12.4% gain seen previously. Imports dipped 0.2% YoY, a milder decline than both the forecasted -5.9% and March’s -4.3%. China’s trade surplus with the US narrowed to $20.46 billion from $27.6 billion in March.In the property sector, Beijing is reportedly weighing a major reform that would prohibit the pre-sale of homes and restrict transactions to completed properties. The proposed regulation, aimed at bringing stability to the real estate market, would apply to future land sales, excluding public housing, with implementation left to local governments.Australia’s Ai Group Industry Index showed improvement in April, although it marked the 33rd straight month of contraction—particularly driven by weakness in export-reliant manufacturing. These signs of persistent softness have strengthened market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% later this month.Australian Dollar could fall toward 0.6400 after breaking below nine-day EMA The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6420 on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a neutral bias as the pair has maintained its position below the ascending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains comfortably above 50, suggesting bullish bias is still in play.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could return to the ascending channel and retest the six-month high at 0.6515, reached on December 2, 2024. A break above this level could support the pair to approach the seven-month high of 0.6687, which was reached in November 2024. Further support appears at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6730.The AUD/USD pair is testing its initial support at the nine-day EMA at 0.6420, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6345. A breach below these levels could weaken the bullish outlook and may expose the pair to 0.5914, the lowest since March 2020.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

05:32 Japanese Yen hangs near one-month low against USD amid trade optimism
The Japanese Yen (JPY) touches a one-month low against a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Monday in reaction to the US-China trade deal optimism.

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The US and China ended high-stakes trade talks in Switzerland on a positive note on Sunday, boosting investors' confidence and undermining demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY. Apart from this, worries about Japan's growth outlook on the back of US tariffs uncertainty further weigh on the JPY. The USD, on the other hand, drew support from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish pause earlier this month and easing concerns about a recession in the US.Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait for the US-China joint statement on Geneva trade talks. Moreover, Japan’s upbeat Household Spending data released on Friday boosted the case for further policy normalization by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and should help limit deeper JPY losses. Meanwhile, prospects for more interest rate hikes by the BoJ mark a big divergence in comparison to expectations for at least three rate cuts by the Fed. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the USD/JPY pair's recent goodish recovery from the year-to-date low, levels just below the 140.00 psychological mark. Japanese Yen bulls remain on the defensive as trade optimism undermines demand for traditional safe-haven assetsUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Sunday that a trade deal had been struck with China. Adding to this, China's Vice Premier He Lifeng said that the high-stakes meeting achieved substantial progress and reached important consensus on issues of concern to both countries.The optimism triggers a fresh wave of global risk-on trade at the start of a new week, which is evident from strong gains around the equity markets and, in turn, undermines the safe-haven Japanese Yen. However, neither side mentioned any agreement to cut US tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods and China's 125% tariffs on US goods.Hence, investors might opt to wait for a joint statement from the US and China on Geneva trade talks later today, which could outline the details and framework of the deal. China's Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang was quoted as saying that "no matter when this statement is released, it’s going to be big news and good news for the world."Meanwhile, positive developments help to ease market concerns that an all-out trade war might trigger a US recession. Adding to this, the Federal Reserve's hawkish signal that it is not leaning towards cutting interest rates anytime soon assists the US Dollar to stand firm near its highest level since April 10, touched on Friday.Meanwhile, Japan's robust Household Spending data and a fall in real wages for the third straight month in March contributed to fears of broader, more entrenched price increases in Japan. This backs the case for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, though the trade uncertainty forced the central bank to adopt a cautious stance. In fact, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledged that the timeline for underlying inflation to reach the central bank's 2% target has been delayed. However, minutes from the BoJ's monetary policy meeting held on March 18-19 revealed last Thursday that the central bank remains ready to hike interest rates further if inflation trends hold.Investors now look forward to the release of US inflation figures later this week, which, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance on Thursday, will influence the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, Japan's first-quarter Gross Domestic Product report on Friday should provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY seems poised to appreciate further, towards testing the 61.8% Fibo. level near the 146.80-146.85 areaFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair now seems to have found acceptance above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April downfall. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction and are holding in the bullish territory on hourly charts, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. Hence, some follow-through strength towards the 146.80-146.85 region, representing the 61.8% Fibo. level, looks like a distinct possibility. This is closely followed by the 147.00 round-figure mark, which, if cleared, should set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move.On the flip side, the 145.55 area, or the 50% level, now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the USD/JPY could accelerate the slide towards the 145.00 psychological mark. The latter coincides with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and should act as a pivotal point. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and drag spot prices to the next relevant support near the 144.45 region en route to the 144.00 round figure. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

04:54 NZD/USD attracts some buyers above 0.5900 on US-China trade optimism
The NZD/USD pair gains traction to near 0.5925 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the Greenback amid easing concerns over a trade war between the United States and China.

04:47 Japan PM Ishiba: Autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters
Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday that “autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters,” while setting out some outlines on trade negotiations.

Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday that “autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters,” while setting out some outlines on trade negotiations. more to come ....

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2066 vs. 7.2095 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2066 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.2095 and 7.2429 Reuters estimate.

04:03 EUR/USD trades below 1.1250, eases due to ECB dovish signals
EUR/USD is retreating from gains posted in the previous session, trading near 1.1240 during Monday’s Asian session.

04:02 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD tumbles below $3,300 on progress in US-China trade talks
The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $3,275 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Optimism in US-China trade talks in Geneva, Switzerland, over the weekend has dragged the precious metal lower.

03:49 GBP/USD trades with negative bias below 1.3300 amid modest USD strength
The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a weaker note and reverses a part of Friday's modest recovery from the vicinity of the 1.3200 mark, or over a three-week low.

03:30 India and Pakistan both claim victory as ceasefire seems to hold
India and Pakistan have both claimed victory after a ceasefire was declared over the weekend, which brought the two nuclear nations back from the brink of war.

02:51 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis: ¥516.5B (March) vs previous ¥712.9B
Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis: ¥516.5B (March) vs previous ¥712.9B

02:50 Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥3678.1B, above forecasts (¥3678B) in March
Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥3678.1B, above forecasts (¥3678B) in March

02:50 Japan Bank Lending (YoY) below expectations (2.8%) in April: Actual (2.4%)
Japan Bank Lending (YoY) below expectations (2.8%) in April: Actual (2.4%)

02:46 US President Donald Trump says he’ll sign executive order that aims to cut drug prices
US President Donald Trump announced Sunday that he will sign an executive order that would cut prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices "almost immediately, by 30% to 80%.”

02:25 AUD/USD gathers strength above 0.6400 amid optimism in US-China trade talks
The AUD/USD pair edges higher to around 0.6420 during the early Asian session on Monday. Optimism in US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, boosts the Australian Dollar (USD) against the Greenback.

01:52 US, China cite ‘substantial progress’ in Geneva trade talks - Bloomberg
China's Vice Premier He Lifeng described the weekend talks with US officials as “substantial progress” in stabilising bilateral trade relations, per Bloomberg.

01:34 China’s CPI inflation arrives at -0.1% YoY in April vs. 0.1% expected
China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped at an annual pace of 0.1% in April after declining 0.1% in March.

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Forex News Timeline

23:59 Mexico’s Finance Minister ‘reasonably confident’ about fiscal projections – El Financiero Mexico’s Finance Minister Edgar Amador noted that he is "reasonably confident" about the Treasury's fiscal and growth projections for the year.

23:17 Australian Dollar under pressure as US-China trade talks shape global sentiment The Australian Dollar (AUD) is facing downward pressure as global trade dynamics shift, particularly between the United States (US) and China.

22:10 Fed's Goolsbee: New tariffs are certainly less stagflationary than previous path Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee took a cautionary stance on the ever-evolving trade stance of the Trump administration on Monday.

22:01 Forex Today: All the attention shifts to US Inflation data In a very positive start to the new trading week, the Greenback edged sharply higher following a fresh bout of optimism on the trade front, all after the auspicious US-China trade talks over the weekend.

21:12 US Dollar surges as trade war cools and Fed cuts get priced out The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, skyrocketed to a one-month high on Monday after China and the United States announced a 90-day pause in their trade war.

21:00 United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $258B, above expectations ($255B) in April United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $258B, above expectations ($255B) in April

20:37 Dow Jones Industrial Average surges higher on US-China tariff walkback The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) soared on Monday, rising over a thousand points and climbing back above the 42,000 handle for the first time since early April.

19:37 BoE's Taylor: Tariff shock was bigger than anyone expected Bank of England's external Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor noted a prevailing sense of precaution and concern among firms, adding that the tariff shock had been larger than anticipated.

19:30 USD/CHF rallies as US-China Trade Truce Lifts Dollar Sentiment The USD/CHF pair is trading higher, supported by a broad rally in the US Dollar following a significant breakthrough in US-China trade relations.

18:39 Brent Crude Oil surges on US–China agreement and easing recession fears Brent Crude Oil has extended gains at the start of the trading week, buoyed by a temporary easing in geopolitical tensions and improving macroeconomic sentiment.

17:14 Trade thaw undermines ley Gold drivers – TDS Developments on trade over the weekend were as close to an about-face as one could have hoped for, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

17:04 President Trump: We achieved total reset with China President Donald Trump said on Monday that he may speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week, as negotiations between the two economic powers show signs of progress toward a potential trade agreement.

16:59 AUD/USD turns upside down to near 0.6400 after US-China trade truce The AUD/USD pair gives back initial gains and turns negative during North American trading hours on Monday.

15:52 EUR tumbles 1.5% on the day – Scotiabank The Euro (EUR) is weak, down 1.5% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and seeing its largest one day decline since early November, around the time of the US election, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:45 USD surges on US/China détente as markets reprice Fed cuts – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is up broadly with meaningful gains against all of the G10 currencies as markets respond to the de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China.

15:40 USD/JPY surges on US-China tariff Truce, hits 144+ – Rabobank News that the US and China have reached an agreement that substantially lowers trade tariffs between them for 90 days has sparked a wave of optimism that has supported risky assets and weighed on safe havens.

15:16 Gold drops as US-China tariff reduction weighs on safe-haven demand Gold prices are under significant pressure in Monday’s session, weighed down by improving global risk sentiment and a strengthening US Dollar (USD).

15:00 Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1.9%, above forecasts (1.5%) in March Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1.9%, above forecasts (1.5%) in March

14:56 GBP: The strongest story in G10? – ING This will be a busy week in the UK data calendar, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

14:52 USD/CNH struggles below 50-DMA resistance near 7.28 – Société Générale USD/CNH remains under pressure after failing to reclaim the 50-DMA, with downside risks intensifying should the 7.18 support give way, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

14:16 Copper jumps on trade optimism – ING Copper and other industrial metals rose this morning, with easing trade tensions giving metals markets a boost. At a briefing following the talks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said neither nation wanted their economies to decouple.

13:56 US Nat Gas opens lower on storage surplus – ING US natural gas prices fell early Thursday as rising inventories outweighed modest weather-driven demand expectations, with the supply surplus building faster than anticipated, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

13:11 EUR/USD plummets as 90-day US-China trade truce strengthens US Dollar EUR/USD plunges below 1.1100 during European trading hours at the start of the week.

13:00 Oil gains on easing trade tensions – ING NYMEX WTI is trading above $63/bbl, while ICE Brent was seen approaching $66/bbl on US-China trade talk optimism.

12:57 EUR/USD pulls back from 1.1570 resistance – Société Générale EUR/USD is under pressure as technical momentum fades, with the pair testing key trend support and downside risks building below the 50-day moving average near 1.1070, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

12:52 EUR: Still quite overvalued – ING EUR/USD briefly printed below the 1.120 support in early trading. Should Bessent feed markets with convincing headlines on US-China talks today, a decisive break lower looks on the cards, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes

12:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:06 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD faces rejection near descending channel hurdle, around $33.00 Silver (XAG/USD) attracts heavy intraday selling in the vicinity of the $33.00 round figure and dives to over a one-week trough during the first half of the European session on Monday.

12:01 GBP/JPY extends rally to near 195.00 as safe-haven demand for Japanese Yen diminishes GBP/JPY is extending its upward momentum for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 194.90 during European hours on Monday.

11:41 Pound Sterling tumbles against US Dollar as US and China lower tariffs for 90 days The Pound Sterling (GBP) slumps to near 1.3170 against the US Dollar (USD) and trades near a one-month low on Monday.

11:23 USD/CHF rallies to one-month top, beyond mid-0.8400s as US and China agree to lower tariffs The USD/CHF pair builds on its modest gap-up opening at the start of a new week and gains strong positive traction during the early part of the European session.

11:17 BoE’s Lombardelli: Caution remains appropriate Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli said on Monday, “caution remains appropriate” on policy outlook.

10:32 NZD/USD falls to near 0.5900 following a 90-day pause in US-China tariff escalation NZD/USD remains under pressure, trading near 0.5900 during early European hours on Monday, despite an improved global trade mood following positive developments in US-China trade talks.

10:15 USTR Greer: Both sides very committed to the 90-day pause period US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer is speaking at the scheduled briefing on the first round of high-level US-China trade talks held over the weekend in Geneva, Switzerland.

10:13 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates mixed at the start of the European session Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

10:12 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: Both sides on reciprocal tariffs will move down 115% US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is speaking at the scheduled briefing on the first round of high-level US-China trade talks held over the weekend in Geneva, Switzerland.

09:46 Palladium price today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

09:33 Forex Today: Gold drops as risk flows dominate markets to start week Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 19:

09:15 FX option expiries for May 12 NY cut FX option expiries for May 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

09:12 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.45 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $60.68.

08:40 EUR/JPY retreats slightly from one-week high, up a little below 164.00 amid weaker JPY The EUR/JPY cross regains positive traction on Monday and jumps to over a one-week top, around the 164.20 area during the Asian session, though it lacks follow-through.

08:33 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $33.00 on M&A news, geopolitical tensions Silver price (XAG/USD) is extending its gains for the third consecutive session, trading around $32.90 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday.

08:00 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bears await break below 1.1200 ahead of US-China joint statement The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a weaker note amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, bolstered by the optimism over a US-China trade deal.

07:43 Gold price struggles near one-week low; US-China joint statement awaited Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts heavy selling on Monday and drops to a one-week low, around the $3,253-3,252 area during the Asian session on the back of US-China trade deal optimism.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

05:32 Japanese Yen hangs near one-month low against USD amid trade optimism The Japanese Yen (JPY) touches a one-month low against a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Monday in reaction to the US-China trade deal optimism.

04:47 Japan PM Ishiba: Autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday that “autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters,” while setting out some outlines on trade negotiations.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2066 vs. 7.2095 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2066 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.2095 and 7.2429 Reuters estimate.

04:03 EUR/USD trades below 1.1250, eases due to ECB dovish signals EUR/USD is retreating from gains posted in the previous session, trading near 1.1240 during Monday’s Asian session.

03:49 GBP/USD trades with negative bias below 1.3300 amid modest USD strength The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a weaker note and reverses a part of Friday's modest recovery from the vicinity of the 1.3200 mark, or over a three-week low.

03:30 India and Pakistan both claim victory as ceasefire seems to hold India and Pakistan have both claimed victory after a ceasefire was declared over the weekend, which brought the two nuclear nations back from the brink of war.

02:51 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis: ¥516.5B (March) vs previous ¥712.9B Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis: ¥516.5B (March) vs previous ¥712.9B

02:50 Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥3678.1B, above forecasts (¥3678B) in March Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥3678.1B, above forecasts (¥3678B) in March

02:50 Japan Bank Lending (YoY) below expectations (2.8%) in April: Actual (2.4%) Japan Bank Lending (YoY) below expectations (2.8%) in April: Actual (2.4%)

02:46 US President Donald Trump says he’ll sign executive order that aims to cut drug prices US President Donald Trump announced Sunday that he will sign an executive order that would cut prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices "almost immediately, by 30% to 80%.”

02:25 AUD/USD gathers strength above 0.6400 amid optimism in US-China trade talks The AUD/USD pair edges higher to around 0.6420 during the early Asian session on Monday. Optimism in US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, boosts the Australian Dollar (USD) against the Greenback.

01:52 US, China cite ‘substantial progress’ in Geneva trade talks - Bloomberg China's Vice Premier He Lifeng described the weekend talks with US officials as “substantial progress” in stabilising bilateral trade relations, per Bloomberg.

01:34 China’s CPI inflation arrives at -0.1% YoY in April vs. 0.1% expected China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped at an annual pace of 0.1% in April after declining 0.1% in March.

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