Forex News Timeline
23:38 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock above forecasts (-2.4M) in May 9: Actual (4.287M)
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock above forecasts (-2.4M) in May 9: Actual (4.287M)
23:06 AUD/USD gains after softer CPI data from the US and trade developments
The US Dollar faced downward pressure on Tuesday, retreating to 101.50, following a softer than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US Dollar Index slips to 101.50 amid softer than expected April CPI figures and ongoing trade talks.Australian Dollar rises sharply, bolstered by improved risk sentiment and reduced US-China trade tensions.Market expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady through mid-2025 with a potential rate cut in September 2025.Tariff reductions between the US and China are easing global trade concerns, benefiting Australia’s export-driven economy.
The US Dollar faced downward pressure on Tuesday, retreating to 101.50, following a softer than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April. The Australian Dollar, on the other hand, surged by nearly 1.5% against the US Dollar, boosted by improving global sentiment and the easing of US-China trade tensions. Investors now eye further economic data. The market expects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its current rate policy through mid-2025.Daily digest market movers: US down as markets digest CPI readings, Fed bets adjustUS Dollar Index struggles as inflation data comes in below forecasts; CPI rises 2.3% YoY, missing 2.4% expectation.Fed Governor Adriana Kugler warns of inflationary risks from tariffs while signaling a shift in policy focus.The US and China reach a significant milestone in trade talks, agreeing to suspend part of their tariffs for 90 days, reducing tariffs to 30% on US goods and 10% on Chinese imports.President Trump pushes for aggressive tax cuts and investment agreements, but the market remains cautious amid unclear economic impacts.The Australian Dollar gains traction as the US Dollar weakens as a combination of softer inflation data and trade progress lifts risk-sensitive currencies.The market now anticipates that the Fed will hold rates steady until at least September 2025 with rate cuts expected to follow.China's tariff reductions offer relief to the global economy, with Australian exports set to benefit from improved trade relations.While inflation remains a concern, the data points to a shift toward more dovish expectations for the Fed.The US economic outlook is clouded by political uncertainties, including President Trump’s tax plans and ongoing tariff disputes.
Technical analysis: Bulls return to Aussie
The AUD/USD pair has flashed a bullish signal, trading around 0.6500, up approximately 1.6% on the day. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the 50s, indicating neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a potential sell signal. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is trading in the 80s, pointing to neutral conditions despite the pair's upward move.Key resistance is seen around 0.6500 with the next level at 0.6700. Immediate support lies at 0.6459, followed by 0.6427 and 0.6420. The 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) support a bullish outlook, while the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day SMA near 1.00 further corroborate the buy signal. The RSI is at 58, signaling potential continuation of bullish momentum in the short term.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The US Dollar faced downward pressure on Tuesday, retreating to 101.50, following a softer than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April. The Australian Dollar, on the other hand, surged by nearly 1.5% against the US Dollar, boosted by improving global sentiment and the easing of US-China trade tensions. Investors now eye further economic data. The market expects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its current rate policy through mid-2025.Daily digest market movers: US down as markets digest CPI readings, Fed bets adjustUS Dollar Index struggles as inflation data comes in below forecasts; CPI rises 2.3% YoY, missing 2.4% expectation.Fed Governor Adriana Kugler warns of inflationary risks from tariffs while signaling a shift in policy focus.The US and China reach a significant milestone in trade talks, agreeing to suspend part of their tariffs for 90 days, reducing tariffs to 30% on US goods and 10% on Chinese imports.President Trump pushes for aggressive tax cuts and investment agreements, but the market remains cautious amid unclear economic impacts.The Australian Dollar gains traction as the US Dollar weakens as a combination of softer inflation data and trade progress lifts risk-sensitive currencies.The market now anticipates that the Fed will hold rates steady until at least September 2025 with rate cuts expected to follow.China's tariff reductions offer relief to the global economy, with Australian exports set to benefit from improved trade relations.While inflation remains a concern, the data points to a shift toward more dovish expectations for the Fed.The US economic outlook is clouded by political uncertainties, including President Trump’s tax plans and ongoing tariff disputes.
Technical analysis: Bulls return to Aussie
The AUD/USD pair has flashed a bullish signal, trading around 0.6500, up approximately 1.6% on the day. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the 50s, indicating neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a potential sell signal. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is trading in the 80s, pointing to neutral conditions despite the pair's upward move.Key resistance is seen around 0.6500 with the next level at 0.6700. Immediate support lies at 0.6459, followed by 0.6427 and 0.6420. The 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) support a bullish outlook, while the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day SMA near 1.00 further corroborate the buy signal. The RSI is at 58, signaling potential continuation of bullish momentum in the short term.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
22:26 Canadian Dollar bounces back slightly on Tuesday
The Canadian Dollar caught a mild bid on Tuesday, largely thanks to a general easing in Greenback bidding across the broader market rather than any particular bullishness to be found on the book for the Loonie.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Canadian Dollar clawed back 0.25% against the Greenback on Tuesday.Market sentiment has pulled back from USD bidding after a strong start to the week.US CPI inflation eased to a three-year low, but markets are bracing for tariff fallout.The Canadian Dollar caught a mild bid on Tuesday, largely thanks to a general easing in Greenback bidding across the broader market rather than any particular bullishness to be found on the book for the Loonie. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers were the key data print for the day, and investors are beginning to grow increasingly anxious about how the next print will shape up as the Trump administration’s tariffs begin to show up in the data.With strictly low-tier data on the offering, the Canadian Dollar is entirely at the mercy of market-wide sentiment flows this week. The end of the temporary reprieve of US “reciprocal tariffs” also looms over the horizon, and firm details of a possible trade deal that would otherwise avert steep import taxes on Canadian goods bound for the US remain entirely absent.Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar steps higher amid Greenback softnessThe Canadian Dollar rose one quarter of one percent against the US Dollar on Tuesday.USD/CAD has been forced back below the 1.3950 level as a result, chalking in a technical flub of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.4030.US CPI inflation eased more than expected in April, however experts are warning that this could be the end of progress on stamping out inflation with tariff effects set to start showing up in headline data beginning in May.Moody’s chief economist on the future of US inflation: “It felt like we could just about declare victory on putting inflation back in the bottle, and it’s back out again. Soak this report in, it’ll be a while before we get another good one.”Despite an overall upbeat stance in global markets, market experts are pivoting into an increasingly bearish outlook for the future. According to Fitch Ratings: “In the absence of a lasting deal, uncertainty over where tariff rates will settle and the impact of those already implemented will remain key factors in our macroeconomic forecasts. Nor does the U.S.-China agreement mean the trade war, which is already having a tangible economic impact, is over.”US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index figures are due in the back half of the trading week.Canadian Dollar price forecastThe Canadian Dollar’s cautiously bullish step on Tuesday pushed USD/CAD back into the low side, snapping a four-day losing streak and kicking the pair back down and away from the 200-day EMA. Price action is poised for a possible bearish extension with technical oscillators rotating down from overbought territory. Still, news headline risks remain high for traders trying to nail down a near-term trend.USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
22:17 Forex Today: Tariff developments and inflation in Germany come to the fore
The US Dollar gave back a big chunk of Monday’s strong gains on Tuesday, as markets weighed the implications of the latest US-China trade deal, easing inflationary pressures, and growing speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in the third quarter.
The US Dollar gave back a big chunk of Monday’s strong gains on Tuesday, as markets weighed the implications of the latest US-China trade deal, easing inflationary pressures, and growing speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in the third quarter.Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 14:
The Dollar Index (DXY) lost the grip and retreated to the 101.00 region on Tuesday on the back of the improved sentiment around the risk-linked universe. The MBA Mortgage Applications will come next, seconded by the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories.
EUR/USD bounced off multi-week lows, reclaiming the 1.1180 zone amid renewed weakness in the Greenback. Germany’s final Inflation Rate is due on May 14.
GBP/USD gathered steam and rebounded markedly just above the 1.3300 hurdle in tandem with the generalised better tone in the riskier assets. Next of note on the UK docket will be the release of the preliminary Q1 GDP Growth Rate, followed by Business Investment, Goods Trade Balance, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and Labour Productivity.
USD/JPY came under renewed selling pressure after hitting seven-week peaks around 148.60 in the previous day, slipping back to the vicinity of 147.40 on Tuesday. Next on tap on the domestic calendar will be the publication of Producer Prices.
AUD/USD managed to set aside Monday’s deep sell-off, surpassing once again the key 0.6400 barrier and its 200-day SMA. Home Loans, Investment Lending for Homes, and the Wage Price Index are all due in Oz.
Prices of WTI rose for the fourth day in a row, approaching the $64.00 mark per barrel as the positive mood prevailed among traders following the US-China deal, while increasing supplies limited the commodity’s upside potential.
Gold prices navigated a narrow range around the $3,240 zone per troy ounce amid the upbeat sentiment on the trade front and renewed selling pressure hitting the US Dollar. Prices of the ounce of Silver failed to extend the initial bull run north of the $33.20 zone, receding to nearly $32.50 as the day progressed.
21:31 US yields climb on tepid CPI, traders dial back Fed cut bets
US Treasury yields rose across the entire yield curve on Tuesday after the latest US inflation report was surprisingly softer than expected, as investors had anticipated a slight uptick due to trade tariffs.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}April CPI softer than forecast; headline rises 0.2% MoM, core CPI steady at 2.8% YoY.Markets eye May CPI for tariff effects; real yields climb to 2.21%, weighing on Gold.Fed rate cut bets reduced to 52 bps from 76 bps after trade truce and firm inflation print.US Treasury yields rose across the entire yield curve on Tuesday after the latest US inflation report was surprisingly softer than expected, as investors had anticipated a slight uptick due to trade tariffs. At the time of writing, the US 10-year Treasury note yield had edged up more than two basis points to 4.495%.10-year yield rises to 4.495% as markets eye inflation pipeline and real yields cap Gold's reboundThe release of April’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data kept US yields steady. However, there is an expectation that May figures will more likely reflect the impact of tariffs.The US CPI rose by 0.2% MoM after sliding -0.1% in March, the first decline since May 2020. Expectations were that CPI would rise 0.3%. Every year, CPI increased 2.3%, down from estimates and March’s 2.4%.Core CPI expanded 0.2% last month, up from 0.1% in the prior month. In the twelve months to April, core cPI increased 2.8%, unchanged from March’s numbers.On Monday, US yields rose sharply as Washington and Beijing agreed on a 90-day pause in tariffs, with both countries, the US and China, reducing duties significantly. Washington tariffs on Chinese imports stand at 30%. Tariffs for Chinese imports of US products stand at 10%.US real yields are also climbing, capping Gold’s advanceThe US 10-year real yields, which are the difference of the US 10-year nominal yield minus inflation expectations for the same period, surge three basis points at 2.21%.Traders priced out one interest rate cut by the Fed, as market participants expect only 52 basis points (bps) of easing, contrary to the 76-bps scheduled on May 7.US 10-year Treasury yield chart / Fed interest rate probabilities Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.
If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
21:16 AUD/JPY climbs for second day, breaks key resistance amid risk-on mood
AUD/JPY extended its upward momentum on Tuesday, rising to 96.60 at the time of writing, as renewed risk appetite and stronger Australian data continue to fuel gains in the pair.
AUD/JPY climbs for a second day, up 2.5% this week, boosted by US-China tariff truce and broad risk-on flows.
Aussie supported by improving domestic sentiment; focus shifts to Australia’s wage data due Wednesday.
Price breaks above multi-month resistance at 95.00, RSI approaches overbought territory.
AUD/JPY extended its upward momentum on Tuesday, rising to 96.60 at the time of writing, as renewed risk appetite and stronger Australian data continue to fuel gains in the pair. The cross has gained nearly 2.5% this week, driven by global optimism following the US-China agreement to temporarily roll back tariffs, alongside a softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print that has improved risk conditions for higher-yielding currencies.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is riding the wave of trade-related optimism, especially given the country’s close economic ties to China. Domestically, sentiment also improved with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rising by 2.2% MoM to 92.1 in May, recovering from a 6% drop in April and marking the third monthly increase this year.
Meanwhile, the NAB Business Confidence Index rose to -1% in April from -3% in March, signaling a slight pickup in corporate sentiment despite remaining in negative territory. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s Wage Price Index (WPI), which could influence expectations around the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next policy move.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a cautiously hawkish tone despite mounting concerns over global trade uncertainty. Speaking before parliament on Tuesday, Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated that the central bank expects both wages and prices to continue rising, reinforcing the BoJ’s view that inflationary momentum remains intact. While Uchida acknowledged that US tariffs may weigh on near-term growth, he emphasized that the BoJ would proceed with rate hikes if the economy and price outlook evolve as anticipated.This stance is consistent with the BoJ’s April 30–May 1 policy meeting summary, which described tariff effects as short-lived shocks with minimal long-term impact on inflation or potential growth. Policymakers also stressed the importance of maintaining flexibility and closely monitoring global risks and uncertainties.Technical analysis: AUD/JPY breaks above 95.00 resistance, targets 97.00 as bullish momentum acceleratesAUD/JPY has broken above a multi-month resistance zone at 95.00, confirming a bullish breakout as the pair trades near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.93. A decisive daily close above this dynamic resistance could pave the way for a test of the 97.00 psychological level, followed by 98.50, a key resistance zone last visited in January.On the downside, immediate support lies at 93.50, with stronger technical backing near the 50-day EMA at 92.90. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is currently at 66, approaching overbought territory, suggesting momentum remains strong but may be due for a consolidation if upside levels are not cleared soon.
Aussie supported by improving domestic sentiment; focus shifts to Australia’s wage data due Wednesday.
Price breaks above multi-month resistance at 95.00, RSI approaches overbought territory.
AUD/JPY extended its upward momentum on Tuesday, rising to 96.60 at the time of writing, as renewed risk appetite and stronger Australian data continue to fuel gains in the pair. The cross has gained nearly 2.5% this week, driven by global optimism following the US-China agreement to temporarily roll back tariffs, alongside a softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print that has improved risk conditions for higher-yielding currencies.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is riding the wave of trade-related optimism, especially given the country’s close economic ties to China. Domestically, sentiment also improved with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rising by 2.2% MoM to 92.1 in May, recovering from a 6% drop in April and marking the third monthly increase this year.
Meanwhile, the NAB Business Confidence Index rose to -1% in April from -3% in March, signaling a slight pickup in corporate sentiment despite remaining in negative territory. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s Wage Price Index (WPI), which could influence expectations around the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next policy move.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a cautiously hawkish tone despite mounting concerns over global trade uncertainty. Speaking before parliament on Tuesday, Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated that the central bank expects both wages and prices to continue rising, reinforcing the BoJ’s view that inflationary momentum remains intact. While Uchida acknowledged that US tariffs may weigh on near-term growth, he emphasized that the BoJ would proceed with rate hikes if the economy and price outlook evolve as anticipated.This stance is consistent with the BoJ’s April 30–May 1 policy meeting summary, which described tariff effects as short-lived shocks with minimal long-term impact on inflation or potential growth. Policymakers also stressed the importance of maintaining flexibility and closely monitoring global risks and uncertainties.Technical analysis: AUD/JPY breaks above 95.00 resistance, targets 97.00 as bullish momentum acceleratesAUD/JPY has broken above a multi-month resistance zone at 95.00, confirming a bullish breakout as the pair trades near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.93. A decisive daily close above this dynamic resistance could pave the way for a test of the 97.00 psychological level, followed by 98.50, a key resistance zone last visited in January.On the downside, immediate support lies at 93.50, with stronger technical backing near the 50-day EMA at 92.90. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is currently at 66, approaching overbought territory, suggesting momentum remains strong but may be due for a consolidation if upside levels are not cleared soon.
20:49 US Dollar dips as traders weigh CPI, Trump tariffs and tax remarks
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, lost ground on Tuesday, slipping to 101.50 as inflation data for April came in softer than expected.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US CPI inflation cooled to 2.3% in April, below expectations, raising Fed rate cut speculation.Trump touts tax cuts and investment deals, but details on trade pacts remain vague.DXY slips below 101.60 as tariff truce with China lacks forward clarity.Markets expect first Fed rate cut by September 2025 with easing through 2026.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, lost ground on Tuesday, slipping to 101.50 as inflation data for April came in softer than expected. While CPI rose 0.2% monthly and 2.3% annually, missing forecasts, core inflation held steady at 2.8%. Traders remain cautious amid vague trade commitments with China and the UK, and there are new uncertainties after President Trump pushed ambitious investment and tax plans without detailing how they would impact the economy. Despite tariff de-escalation headlines, the Fitch-rated effective tariff rate on Chinese goods remains above 40%, fueling doubt over the recent deal’s durability.Daily digest market movers: CPI figures and trade policies in spotlightCPI inflation in the US slowed to 2.3% annually in April, missing the expected 2.4%, and core CPI held at 2.8% YoY.Trump claims China has lowered tariffs, but Fitch says effective rates remain above 40% after legacy policies.Markets question substance of recent China and UK trade deals as details remain scant.President Trump promotes a $4 trillion tax cut bill focused on high-income earners, while lower-income taxes may rise.Trump says new “investment agreements” with firms like Amazon and Oracle will fuel growth but provides no framework.Fed’s Goolsbee warns tariffs can still fuel inflation, but recent data don’t confirm those fears.US and China have agreed to a 90-day tariff truce with US duties reduced to 30% and China’s to 10%.Fed policymakers maintain cautious tone as CPI remains within acceptable ranges, delaying potential monetary easing.Rate markets show a 91.6% probability of no change at the June 18 Fed meeting and 65.1% in July.September has a 51.6% probability of a 25 bps cut, with long-term projections pointing to 3.25%-3.50% by end of 2026.Risk assets remain mixed; Gold is flat after recent pullbacks, while Oil and equities are cautiously bid.Trump hints at Iran talks and outlines intent to enforce oil export embargo if diplomacy fails.Fed Chair Powell's comments are awaited later in the week for guidance on policy direction.EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.1060 with resistance at 1.1322 and support at the 1.1000 mark.
US Dollar Index technical analysis: Rate gap issues persistThe US Dollar Index exhibits a bearish signal, currently trading near 101.00 after a minor daily decline. Price action sits near the lower end of the intraday range between 101.19 and 101.76.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Ultimate Oscillator both hover in the 50s, suggesting neutral momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a modest buy signal, but this is countered by the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stochastic RSI) Fast, which is extended in the 90s — indicating overbought conditions. Additionally, the 10-period Momentum indicator near 2.00 reinforces short-term selling pressure.On the moving average front, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) continues to point upward, hinting at near-term bullishness. However, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA — all clustered near the 100 level — indicate a broader bearish trend. Key support levels are identified at 100.94, 100.73 and 100.63, while resistance levels are noted at 101.42, 101.94 and 101.98.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, lost ground on Tuesday, slipping to 101.50 as inflation data for April came in softer than expected. While CPI rose 0.2% monthly and 2.3% annually, missing forecasts, core inflation held steady at 2.8%. Traders remain cautious amid vague trade commitments with China and the UK, and there are new uncertainties after President Trump pushed ambitious investment and tax plans without detailing how they would impact the economy. Despite tariff de-escalation headlines, the Fitch-rated effective tariff rate on Chinese goods remains above 40%, fueling doubt over the recent deal’s durability.Daily digest market movers: CPI figures and trade policies in spotlightCPI inflation in the US slowed to 2.3% annually in April, missing the expected 2.4%, and core CPI held at 2.8% YoY.Trump claims China has lowered tariffs, but Fitch says effective rates remain above 40% after legacy policies.Markets question substance of recent China and UK trade deals as details remain scant.President Trump promotes a $4 trillion tax cut bill focused on high-income earners, while lower-income taxes may rise.Trump says new “investment agreements” with firms like Amazon and Oracle will fuel growth but provides no framework.Fed’s Goolsbee warns tariffs can still fuel inflation, but recent data don’t confirm those fears.US and China have agreed to a 90-day tariff truce with US duties reduced to 30% and China’s to 10%.Fed policymakers maintain cautious tone as CPI remains within acceptable ranges, delaying potential monetary easing.Rate markets show a 91.6% probability of no change at the June 18 Fed meeting and 65.1% in July.September has a 51.6% probability of a 25 bps cut, with long-term projections pointing to 3.25%-3.50% by end of 2026.Risk assets remain mixed; Gold is flat after recent pullbacks, while Oil and equities are cautiously bid.Trump hints at Iran talks and outlines intent to enforce oil export embargo if diplomacy fails.Fed Chair Powell's comments are awaited later in the week for guidance on policy direction.EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.1060 with resistance at 1.1322 and support at the 1.1000 mark.
US Dollar Index technical analysis: Rate gap issues persistThe US Dollar Index exhibits a bearish signal, currently trading near 101.00 after a minor daily decline. Price action sits near the lower end of the intraday range between 101.19 and 101.76.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Ultimate Oscillator both hover in the 50s, suggesting neutral momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a modest buy signal, but this is countered by the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stochastic RSI) Fast, which is extended in the 90s — indicating overbought conditions. Additionally, the 10-period Momentum indicator near 2.00 reinforces short-term selling pressure.On the moving average front, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) continues to point upward, hinting at near-term bullishness. However, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA — all clustered near the 100 level — indicate a broader bearish trend. Key support levels are identified at 100.94, 100.73 and 100.63, while resistance levels are noted at 101.42, 101.94 and 101.98.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
20:42 Dow Jones Industrial Average treads water post-CPI inflation print
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trimmed momentum on Tuesday, holding close to flat and getting hung up on the 42,300 region.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Dow Jones spun a tight circle near 42,300 on Tuesday.Markets largely failed to react to US CPI inflation, which eased slightly in April.Despite a general easing in the weighted index, key goods continue to rise, and tariff impacts loom ahead.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trimmed momentum on Tuesday, holding close to flat and getting hung up on the 42,300 region. Steadying bids come off the heels of a stellar start to the trading week that saw the DJIA climb over a thousand points on Monday, but a firm bullish extension in tech stocks that bolstered other equity indexes higher saw the Dow Jones left in the dust on Tuesday.United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation overall eased in April, with headline CPI inflation rising 0.2% MoM versus the expected 0.3% increase from March’s -0.1% print. Annualized CPI also came in below expectations, rising 2.3% YoY versus the expected hold of 2.4%. Despite the lowest pace of annualized CPI inflation growth in three years, economists and markets are now bracing for tariff impacts to begin wiping out progress on walking back inflation beginning in May. According to reporting by CNBC, the chief of economist from the Moody’s Ratings agency summarized April’s report by saying: “It felt like we could just about declare victory on putting inflation back in the bottle, and it’s back out again. Soak this report in, it’ll be a while before we get another good one.”Despite a general easing in key weighted components, such as gasoline, apparel, used cars, and airplane tickets, annualized costs of often-purchased goods continue to soar well above recorded prices a year ago. Egg prices, always a hot topic around the inflation water cooler, remain nearly 50% higher than they were at the same time last year. Many key core consumer goods also chalked in around 10% YoY price increases, including coffee (instant, roasted, and raw), ground beef and beef roasts, gas utility prices, college textbooks, admission to sporting events, and video rentals, including subscription services. Over a similar period, average US wages have risen around a dollar an hour, or a 4% increase.US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation figures on Thursday will follow up this week’s CPI inflation print, alongside US Retail Sales data from April. The forward-looking University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May will also be released on Friday, and give investors a peek under the hood of how US consumers feel about the state of the economy. Median market forecasts are expecting a much-needed uptick in the advance sentiment indicator.Read more stock news: UnitedHealth stock craters as CEO resignsDow Jones price forecastThe Dow Jones has halted its early-week surge, pumping the brakes and pausing near 42,300. The major equity index is up over 1.5% on the week, and has reclaimed about 15.5% from early April’s plunge into the 36,600 region. A fresh break to the north side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,500 has put the Dow Jones back on the bullish side, and bidders will be looking to extend momentum to push price action back toward record highs above 45,000.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
20:16 Gold price rebounds on cool US CPI reading but remains trapped on risk-on mood
Gold prices traded with a positive tone on Tuesday, following Monday’s drop of over 2.70%, exchanged hands at around $3,250, up by 0.42%. A softer-than-expected US inflation report and the trade truce between China and the US may keep Gold prices capped beneath the $3,300 figure.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}XAU/USD climbs toward $3,250 as soft US inflation data boosts sentiment, but Fed stance caps gains.April CPI misses slightly, easing US Dollar pressure with limited immediate impact from tariffs.Analysts caution inflation may rise as tariffs gradually push up goods prices.Fed expected to cut rates twice in 2025; focus shifts to US PPI and Retail Sales for guidance.Gold prices traded with a positive tone on Tuesday, following Monday’s drop of over 2.70%, exchanged hands at around $3,250, up by 0.42%. A softer-than-expected US inflation report and the trade truce between China and the US may keep Gold prices capped beneath the $3,300 figure.US inflation data for April was slightly softer than expected by market participants on a monthly basis. Annual basis figures were aligned with projections, indicating that the tariff effect has not been reflected so far in the “hard data.”Meanwhile, analysts at a major US commercial bank revealed that tariffs have boosted goods prices, “but larger increases are in the pipeline.”Money market participants are still seeing a restrictive Federal Reserve (Fed). The December 2025 fed funds rate futures contract estimates the US central bank will ease 52 basis points of easing. This implies two rate cuts as Fed officials projected since last year’s December meeting, further confirmed by the latest Summary of Economic Projections in March.Ahead this week, traders are eyeing the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and US Retail Sales data.Daily digest market movers: Gold price edged up, still capped by high US Treasury yieldsUS Treasury bond yields are climbing with the US 10-year Treasury note yield edging up 1.5 basis points to 4.489%. Meanwhile, US real yields are also steady at 2.199% as indicated by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields.The US CPI in April expanded by 0.2% MoM, below forecasts of 0.3%, but up from March’s -0.1% number. Core CPI rose by 0.2% MoM, up from the previous month but beneath estimates of 0.3%.On an annual basis, the US CPI increased by 2.3% YoY, a tenth below estimates and the previous month's reading, and core metrics remained unchanged at 2.8% YoY.The announcement of a tariff agreement between the US and China improved risk appetite and sent Bullion prices plunging. Nevertheless, traders should be aware of recent developments regarding US trade policies and geopolitics as new catalysts could emerge and push Gold prices in either direction.The World Gold Council revealed that the People’s Bank of China added 2 tonnes to its Gold reserves in April – for the sixth consecutive month. The National Bank of Poland increased by 12 tonnes in April to 509 tonnes; while the Czech National Bank increased its reserves by 2.5 tonnes in April.XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price advances steadily with buyers eyeing $3,250The Gold price rally has stalled, yet a “double-top” candle chart appears to be emerging, which could send XAU/USD prices toward the $3,000 figure and beyond. Momentum shows that buyers' strength is fading and that sellers are stepping in.For a double-top confirmation, sellers must clear the May 1 low of $3,202. Once surpassed, the next stop would be $3,100, $3,000, and the minimum objective at $2,950.Conversely, If XAU/USD edges back above $3,300, buyers will face the next resistance at $3,350. If surpassed, the next ceiling level would be $3,400 and beyond. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
20:16 AUD/USD surges to 0.6470 as soft US CPI and tariff truce lift sentiment
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading sharply higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with AUD/USD rising to 0.6470, up nearly 1.5% intraday, as a combination of improved global sentiment and softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data boosts demand for risk-sensitive currencies.
AUD/USD jumps nearly 1.5% on Tuesday, rising to 0.6470 amid improving risk appetite and broad US Dollar weakness.Tariff truce between the US and China, alongside weak US inflation data, boosts demand for risk-sensitive Aussie.Australian consumer and business confidence rebounds, RBA likely to cut rates next week to support growth.Price breaks above 200-day EMA; next resistance at 0.6500, with further upside toward 0.6700 if momentum continues.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading sharply higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with AUD/USD rising to 0.6470, up nearly 1.5% intraday, as a combination of improved global sentiment and softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data boosts demand for risk-sensitive currencies. The Aussie is extending gains after a volatile start to the week, with investors welcoming signs of de-escalation in United States (US)-China trade tensions.Over the weekend, trade negotiators from Washington and Beijing reached a 90-day agreement to reduce tariffs, cutting US tariffs to 30% and Chinese tariffs to 10%. The breakthrough has helped ease fears of a global slowdown, offering a significant tailwind to Australia’s trade-dependent economy, given its deep export ties with China.From the US side, recent macro data revealed that headline CPI eased to 2.3% year-over-year in April—its lowest level since February 2021 and below the 2.4% forecast. On a month-over-month basis, prices rose 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in March but undershooting the 0.3% estimate. Meanwhile, core inflation remained unchanged at 2.8%, staying at a four-year low. The data helped reduce expectations of further elevated interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near term, pressuring the Greenback and lifting the Aussie.
On Australia’s side, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 2.2% month-on-month to 92.1 in May, recovering from a 6% drop in April and marking the third monthly increase this year. Meanwhile, the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rose to -1 in April from -3 in March, signaling a slight pickup in corporate sentiment despite remaining in negative territory.Still, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting as policymakers continue efforts to support economic growth in a fragile global environment.
Technical analysis: AUD/USD rallies to 0.6470, key resistance at 0.6500 in sightFrom a technical perspective, AUD/USD has broken above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) after holding firm at short-term support near 0.6360, which aligns with last week’s low.The next resistance lies at 0.6500, near the previous week’s high. A break above this level would expose the 0.6700 psychological handle last seen in November 2024. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6360, a level that has offered support multiple times in recent sessions, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6348, likely towards 0.6200 if downside pressure resumes.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 58.70 and pointing upward, suggesting that bullish momentum is gaining strength.
20:12 USD/JPY slips below 148.00 as US inflation slows, Fed rate cut bets firm
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is advancing modestly against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as softer-than-expected US inflation data reignited speculation about Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts later this year.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
USD/JPY drops below 148.00 as softer US CPI data fuels a dovish shift in Fed rate expectations.US Dollar loses ground as Treasury yields fall; traders weigh rate cut prospects against cautious BoJ outlook.Markets await Fed speeches and Japan data, including PPI on Wednesday and GDP on Friday, for further direction.The Japanese Yen (JPY) is advancing modestly against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as softer-than-expected US inflation data reignited speculation about Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts later this year. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is down 0.43% on the day, trading below 148.00 after failing to extend Monday’s rally fueled by improved global risk sentiment and easing trade tensions.The move follows Monday’s sharp rebound, which had been driven by optimism surrounding a temporary truce in US–China tariffs. However, the upbeat mood was tempered by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed inflation slowing more than anticipated and weighed on the US Dollar.US CPI miss rekindles dovish Fed outlookThe April US CPI report revealed a moderation in inflationary pressures. Headline CPI rose by just 0.2% (MoM), missing the 0.3% forecast and rebounding from March’s -0.1% decline. On an annual basis, inflation cooled to 2.3%, below the expected 2.4%. Core CPI—which strips out volatile food and energy prices—also increased by 0.2% MoM, underperforming the 0.3% consensus and holding steady at 2.8% YoY.The data has bolstered market confidence that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates later this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in September with increased conviction.Focus shifts to Fed speakers and Powell's Thursday addressThe downside surprise in inflation has renewed pressure on the US Dollar, with USD/JPY stalling after Monday’s gains.Investors are now turning their attention to a series of speeches from key Fed officials. On Wednesday, Governors Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, and Mary Daly are scheduled to speak, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Thursday. Markets will be watching closely for any dovish tilt that may further support expectations for policy easing.Japanese Yen supported by yield adjustment, cautious BoJ outlookThe Japanese Yen gained modest ground as US Treasury yields edged lower in response to the CPI report. A narrower interest rate differential reduces the appeal of USD/JPY carry trades, offering some support to the Yen. However, the upside remains limited due to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) persistently accommodative stance. Without clear signals of tightening from the BoJ, JPY gains may be capped.Key Japanese data releases are ahead, including PPI and GDPInvestors are also eyeing Japan’s economic calendar. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is due on Wednesday, with forecasts pointing to a 4.0% YoY increase in April, slightly down from March’s 4.2%. A softer print could ease inflation pressures and reduce the case for BoJ tightening.Attention will then shift to Japan’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release on Friday. Economists expect a 0.1% QoQ contraction following a 0.6% gain in Q4 2024. A sharper slowdown may dampen expectations for a BoJ rate hike this year, while a surprise upside could offer fresh support for the Yen.Key resistance at 148.00 holds as bullish momentum pauses below Fib confluenceUSD/JPY pulled back on Tuesday after failing to clear the 148.20 level, the mid-point of the YTD move.This zone has consistently acted as both resistance and support, capping gains in late March and triggering price reactions in early April, marking it as a significant technical pivot.At the time of writing, the pair is trading near 147.62, holding just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 147.14, drawn from the January high of 158.88 to the April low of 139.89. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 146.27 provides the next layer of dynamic support, reinforcing the short-term bullish structure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to 58.07, indicating that bullish momentum remains intact, though no longer in overbought territory.USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
USD/JPY drops below 148.00 as softer US CPI data fuels a dovish shift in Fed rate expectations.US Dollar loses ground as Treasury yields fall; traders weigh rate cut prospects against cautious BoJ outlook.Markets await Fed speeches and Japan data, including PPI on Wednesday and GDP on Friday, for further direction.The Japanese Yen (JPY) is advancing modestly against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as softer-than-expected US inflation data reignited speculation about Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts later this year. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is down 0.43% on the day, trading below 148.00 after failing to extend Monday’s rally fueled by improved global risk sentiment and easing trade tensions.The move follows Monday’s sharp rebound, which had been driven by optimism surrounding a temporary truce in US–China tariffs. However, the upbeat mood was tempered by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed inflation slowing more than anticipated and weighed on the US Dollar.US CPI miss rekindles dovish Fed outlookThe April US CPI report revealed a moderation in inflationary pressures. Headline CPI rose by just 0.2% (MoM), missing the 0.3% forecast and rebounding from March’s -0.1% decline. On an annual basis, inflation cooled to 2.3%, below the expected 2.4%. Core CPI—which strips out volatile food and energy prices—also increased by 0.2% MoM, underperforming the 0.3% consensus and holding steady at 2.8% YoY.The data has bolstered market confidence that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates later this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in September with increased conviction.Focus shifts to Fed speakers and Powell's Thursday addressThe downside surprise in inflation has renewed pressure on the US Dollar, with USD/JPY stalling after Monday’s gains.Investors are now turning their attention to a series of speeches from key Fed officials. On Wednesday, Governors Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, and Mary Daly are scheduled to speak, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Thursday. Markets will be watching closely for any dovish tilt that may further support expectations for policy easing.Japanese Yen supported by yield adjustment, cautious BoJ outlookThe Japanese Yen gained modest ground as US Treasury yields edged lower in response to the CPI report. A narrower interest rate differential reduces the appeal of USD/JPY carry trades, offering some support to the Yen. However, the upside remains limited due to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) persistently accommodative stance. Without clear signals of tightening from the BoJ, JPY gains may be capped.Key Japanese data releases are ahead, including PPI and GDPInvestors are also eyeing Japan’s economic calendar. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is due on Wednesday, with forecasts pointing to a 4.0% YoY increase in April, slightly down from March’s 4.2%. A softer print could ease inflation pressures and reduce the case for BoJ tightening.Attention will then shift to Japan’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release on Friday. Economists expect a 0.1% QoQ contraction following a 0.6% gain in Q4 2024. A sharper slowdown may dampen expectations for a BoJ rate hike this year, while a surprise upside could offer fresh support for the Yen.Key resistance at 148.00 holds as bullish momentum pauses below Fib confluenceUSD/JPY pulled back on Tuesday after failing to clear the 148.20 level, the mid-point of the YTD move.This zone has consistently acted as both resistance and support, capping gains in late March and triggering price reactions in early April, marking it as a significant technical pivot.At the time of writing, the pair is trading near 147.62, holding just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 147.14, drawn from the January high of 158.88 to the April low of 139.89. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 146.27 provides the next layer of dynamic support, reinforcing the short-term bullish structure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to 58.07, indicating that bullish momentum remains intact, though no longer in overbought territory.USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
20:00 EUR/CAD Price Analysis: Euro steadies near 1.5600 as bullish signals hold firm
The EUR/CAD pair advanced on Tuesday, trading near the 1.5600 zone after the European session, reflecting a strong bullish tone as the market heads into the Asian session.
EUR/CAD trades around the 1.5600 zone after solid gains in Tuesday’s session.Mixed momentum signals, with broader trend support from longer-term averages.Key support levels hold below, while resistance clusters just above current levels.The EUR/CAD pair advanced on Tuesday, trading near the 1.5600 zone after the European session, reflecting a strong bullish tone as the market heads into the Asian session. The pair remains positioned within the middle of its recent range, suggesting that buyers maintain control despite mixed short-term signals. The broader technical structure remains supportive, underpinned by a cluster of rising moving averages that continue to reinforce the overall uptrend.From a technical perspective, the pair presents a mixed but generally positive outlook. The Relative Strength Index sits in the 40s, reflecting balanced momentum without immediate overbought pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence, however, continues to flash a sell signal, highlighting the potential for short-term pullbacks. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index remains in the 20s, reflecting a relatively weak trend strength, while the Williams Percent Range and Ultimate Oscillator also sit in neutral territory, suggesting the current momentum may lack conviction.The broader trend structure is more supportive. The 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages remain well below current levels and continue to slope upward, providing strong underlying support. Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and 9-day Hull Moving Average also reinforce the bullish outlook, further supporting the broader uptrend despite the mixed short-term signals from momentum indicators.Support levels are located at 1.5580, 1.5548, and 1.5372. Resistance is found at 1.5621, 1.5623, and 1.5627. A sustained move above the immediate resistance zone could confirm a broader breakout, while a drop below support might trigger a short-term correction, potentially testing the lower end of the recent range.Daily Chart
19:30 USD/CHF retraces to key support amid softer US CPI data
The USD/CHF pair retraces towards the critical round-level support of 0.8400 during the North American session on Tuesday.
USD/CHF tests round-level support at 0.8400 after softer-than-expected US CPI data for April.The US Dollar Index (DXY) retraces to 101.30, pressured by cooling inflation and fading trade optimism.Swiss Franc remains firm against major peers, supported by a cautious market tone.The USD/CHF pair retraces towards the critical round-level support of 0.8400 during the North American session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) faced selling pressure following the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which revealed that inflation grew at a moderate pace, coming in below market expectations. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the headline CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year in April, down from 2.4% in March and missing the 2.4% forecast. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, remained steady at 2.8%, aligning with analyst estimates.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the performance of the USD against six major currencies, corrected to near 101.30 from the monthly high of 102.00 seen on Monday. Traders have pared back Fed dovish bets for the July meeting, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 61.4% probability of interest rates remaining steady in the current 4.25%-4.50% range. Despite this, broader concerns over a cooling US economy and lingering US-China trade uncertainties have kept the Greenback under pressure.The Swiss Franc (CHF), meanwhile, trades higher against most major peers, except antipodeans, as the currency benefits from its safe-haven status amid global economic uncertainties. The pair remains cushioned near the horizontal support from the September 6 low of 0.8375, a former major resistance level.Technical AnalysisUSD/CHF hovers near critical support at 0.8400, struggling to regain upside momentum. The pair has climbed above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently trading around 0.8326, signaling a potentially stronger bullish trend if sustained. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded to the 60.00 level, suggesting building positive momentum, though a confirmed breakout above this level would be needed for a sustained rally.Key resistance levels include the psychological 0.8500 mark, followed by the April 10 high of 0.8580 and the April 8 high of 0.8611. On the downside, a decisive break below 0.8375 could expose the May 7 low of 0.8186, followed by the deeper support near the April 11 low of 0.8100 and the April 21 low of 0.8040.With traders cautious ahead of more US economic data and Fed guidance, USD/CHF remains in a fragile recovery, closely tracking shifts in risk sentiment and global macroeconomic indicators.Daily Chart
19:16 US President Trump: There will be a redistribution of costs with other countries
United States (US) President Donald Trump hit the airwaves with a fresh round of commentary on a wide range of subjects on Tuesday.
United States (US) President Donald Trump hit the airwaves with a fresh round of commentary on a wide range of subjects on Tuesday. President Trump reiterated his intentions to treat trade balance as an imbalance that needs to be rectified in order for a country to reach maximum profitability, and also repeated his intentions to obtain questionably steep 'investment agreements' with individual companies. How these corporations are meant to invest directly in the US, outside of expanding regular operations that market share may not generate profitability from, remains unclear.Donald Trump also noted that by removing his own self-imposed triple-digit tariffs targeted as US consumers who demand goods from China, that China has eased back its own tariffs on US goods. According to the Fitch Ratings agency, the Effective Tariff Rate (ETR) remains above 40% on Chinese goods when legacy tariffs from Trump's first term are factored in.President Trump also noted that the US government is on pace to pass one of the largest tax cut spending bills in history, which includes over $4 trillion dollars in cuts to government tax receipts, with the overwhelming majority of those tax cuts targeted at high net worth individuals. Effective tax rates are broadly expected to increase for US citizens at or below median income levels.Key highlightsThe China agreement is a breakthrough.
China has agreed to open up to the US for trade. China has to do it, we'll see what happens.
I had great meetings with the UK and China.
We're in good shape to pass the tax bill, Congress are on the verge of passing the biggest tax cut in history.
Tax bill would be rocket ship for the US economy.
Now we're tariffing them at a level nobody's seen.
Tariffs are making the US a different country, and a different party.
We're tariffing countries that tariffed us.
I am adding $1 trillion of investment into the US with the Saudi trip.
There will be deals with Amazon, Oracle, and others.
Multibillion deals with Amazon and Oracle are all here.
Companies weren't happy with me a month ago, it's amazing what a rising market will do.
There will be a redistribution of costs with other countries.
Market will go higher. It's gonna go a lot higher.
There are commercial deals also with Uber, Johnson & Johnson, and others.
We don't want to be bombing each other out of existence.
I hope Saudi will join the Abraham Accords.
We're working with the region, the task is to unify against chaos. The most destructive is the Iranian regime.
The Arab states are focused on stability, and Iran on terror.
Iran has dragged an entire region down with them.
The differences with Iran are profound.
I never believed in having permanent enemies.
I am willing to end past conflicts.
I want to make a deal with Iran.
If Iran rejects olive branch, we will have no choice but to inflict maximum pressure.
Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.
We would drive Iranian oil exports to zero.
The Iran offer will not last forever.
Things are happening at a fast pace.
The time is right now for Iran to choose.
Russia-Ukraine talks could produce good results, we'll see if we can get it done.
We stopped Iran's oil with embargo and sanctions.
We believe in peace through strength.
We won't hesitate to wield American power if necessary. No mercy for any foe who tries to do us harm.
We have things you don't even know about.
China has agreed to open up to the US for trade. China has to do it, we'll see what happens.
I had great meetings with the UK and China.
We're in good shape to pass the tax bill, Congress are on the verge of passing the biggest tax cut in history.
Tax bill would be rocket ship for the US economy.
Now we're tariffing them at a level nobody's seen.
Tariffs are making the US a different country, and a different party.
We're tariffing countries that tariffed us.
I am adding $1 trillion of investment into the US with the Saudi trip.
There will be deals with Amazon, Oracle, and others.
Multibillion deals with Amazon and Oracle are all here.
Companies weren't happy with me a month ago, it's amazing what a rising market will do.
There will be a redistribution of costs with other countries.
Market will go higher. It's gonna go a lot higher.
There are commercial deals also with Uber, Johnson & Johnson, and others.
We don't want to be bombing each other out of existence.
I hope Saudi will join the Abraham Accords.
We're working with the region, the task is to unify against chaos. The most destructive is the Iranian regime.
The Arab states are focused on stability, and Iran on terror.
Iran has dragged an entire region down with them.
The differences with Iran are profound.
I never believed in having permanent enemies.
I am willing to end past conflicts.
I want to make a deal with Iran.
If Iran rejects olive branch, we will have no choice but to inflict maximum pressure.
Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.
We would drive Iranian oil exports to zero.
The Iran offer will not last forever.
Things are happening at a fast pace.
The time is right now for Iran to choose.
Russia-Ukraine talks could produce good results, we'll see if we can get it done.
We stopped Iran's oil with embargo and sanctions.
We believe in peace through strength.
We won't hesitate to wield American power if necessary. No mercy for any foe who tries to do us harm.
We have things you don't even know about.
18:35 United States 52-Week Bill Auction up to 3.93% from previous 3.82%
United States 52-Week Bill Auction up to 3.93% from previous 3.82%
18:30 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro climbs toward 1.1200 as bullish sentiment builds
The EUR/USD pair advanced on Tuesday, trading near the 1.1200 zone after the European session, reflecting a strong bullish tone as the market approaches the Asian session. Price action remains near the top of the daily range, suggesting that buyers maintain control despite mixed momentum readings.
EUR/USD trades near the 1.1200 zone after strong gains in Tuesday’s session.Mixed momentum signals, but broader trend remains positive with long-term support.Key support levels hold below, while resistance aligns near recent highs.The EUR/USD pair advanced on Tuesday, trading near the 1.1200 zone after the European session, reflecting a strong bullish tone as the market approaches the Asian session. Price action remains near the top of the daily range, suggesting that buyers maintain control despite mixed momentum readings. The broader technical picture remains constructive, with several longer-term moving averages reinforcing the overall uptrend.From a technical perspective, the pair presents a mixed but generally positive outlook. The Relative Strength Index sits in the 40s, indicating balanced momentum without immediate overbought conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence, however, continues to flash a sell signal, hinting at potential short-term resistance. Meanwhile, the Bull Bear Power indicator supports the buy bias, adding weight to the bullish case. The Ultimate Oscillator also holds in the 40s, reflecting a cautious tone, while the Stochastic %K, trading near 16, flashes a clear buy signal, indicating potential for further gains.The broader trend structure is supported by key moving averages. The 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, along with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and 50-day Simple Moving Average, all align with the buy sentiment, reinforcing the underlying uptrend. However, the 20-day Simple Moving Average remains a headwind, suggesting that the path higher may still face resistance.Support levels cluster around 1.1132, 1.1084, and 1.1083. Resistance is found at 1.1197, 1.1230, and 1.1242. A sustained move above the immediate resistance zone could confirm a broader breakout, while a drop below support might trigger a short-term correction, potentially testing the lower end of the recent range.Daily Chart
18:25 GBP/USD rebounds on soft CPI, boosting Fed cut bets
The Pound Sterling recovered from Monday’s losses and climbed over 0.35% against the Greenback after the latest inflation report in the United States (US) kept traders' hopes high for further easing by the Federal Reserve. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3226 after bouncing of a daily low of 1.3165.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}US CPI misses forecasts; softer headline and core inflation bolster case for two Fed cuts in 2025.UK labor market cools as wage growth slows to 5.6%, lowest since Nov 2024, easing BoE pressure.Fed-BoE policy gap narrows; GBP/USD supported by weaker Dollar and steady BoE expectations.The Pound Sterling recovered from Monday’s losses and climbed over 0.35% against the Greenback after the latest inflation report in the United States (US) kept traders' hopes high for further easing by the Federal Reserve. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3226 after bouncing of a daily low of 1.3165.Sterling climbs 0.35% after cooler-than-expected US inflation revives easing hopes; UK jobs data signals BoE cautionThe US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April was slightly below estimates in the headline and core figures monthly. The CPI came in at 0.2% below forecasts of 0.3%, but a touch higher compared to the March print of -0.1%. Core CPI stood at 0.2%, up from 0.1% but beneath forecasts of 0.3%.At the same time, inflation rose by 2.3% YoY, a tenth below estimates and the previous month's reading, and core metrics stood at 2.8% YoY. Most analysts estimated that April’s print could reflect tariffs impact. Still, “larger increases are in the pipeline” for inflation, according to Bank of America economists.Across the pond, the latest UK employment figures showed the jobs market is cooling further, a relief for the Bank of England (BoE). The number of employees fell by nearly 33K, while wage growth in the three months to March rose by 5.6%, the slowest since November 2024.BoE’s Chief Economist, Hew Pill, crossed the wires. He stated that he remains concerned about a reacceleration of inflation, as he sees second-round effects. He remains the most hawkish member, after last week, he voted against the BoE's quarter-point interest rate cut.Central bank divergence to drive the GBP/USD lowerMeanwhile, market participants priced in two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) instead of three, according to last week’s data by the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). As of writing, the December 2025 fed funds rate futures contract shows 54 basis points of easing.For the BoE, the swaps market is pricing in a total of 48.6 basis points by the end of the year, with no change in policy expected at the next BoE meeting in June.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/USD bullish trend remains intact despite retreating below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3301, which now serves as the next potential resistance level. In the near term, momentum has shifted positively, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Hence, the pair might extend its gains.The first resistance is the 20-day SMA. Although breached, buyers must clear the latter, followed by the 1.3350. Up next lies 1.3400. Conversely, if GBP/USD stays below 1.3301, sellers could remain hopeful of retesting the current week's low of 1.3194, ahead of the 50-day SMA at 1.3089.
British Pound PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.72% 0.29% 1.08% 0.56% -0.68% -0.07% 0.84% EUR -0.72% -0.30% 0.91% 0.33% -0.75% -0.31% 0.60% GBP -0.29% 0.30% 1.37% 0.63% -0.45% -0.08% 0.91% JPY -1.08% -0.91% -1.37% -0.52% -2.34% -1.97% -0.45% CAD -0.56% -0.33% -0.63% 0.52% -0.97% -0.63% 0.28% AUD 0.68% 0.75% 0.45% 2.34% 0.97% 0.35% 1.34% NZD 0.07% 0.31% 0.08% 1.97% 0.63% -0.35% 0.89% CHF -0.84% -0.60% -0.91% 0.45% -0.28% -1.34% -0.89% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
British Pound PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.72% 0.29% 1.08% 0.56% -0.68% -0.07% 0.84% EUR -0.72% -0.30% 0.91% 0.33% -0.75% -0.31% 0.60% GBP -0.29% 0.30% 1.37% 0.63% -0.45% -0.08% 0.91% JPY -1.08% -0.91% -1.37% -0.52% -2.34% -1.97% -0.45% CAD -0.56% -0.33% -0.63% 0.52% -0.97% -0.63% 0.28% AUD 0.68% 0.75% 0.45% 2.34% 0.97% 0.35% 1.34% NZD 0.07% 0.31% 0.08% 1.97% 0.63% -0.35% 0.89% CHF -0.84% -0.60% -0.91% 0.45% -0.28% -1.34% -0.89% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
18:13 EUR/GBP under pressure as ECB–BoE policy gap widens ahead of key data
The Euro (EUR) remains under pressure against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday as diverging monetary policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) continue to drive sentiment.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Diverging policy outlooks from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England weigh on the Euro.UK labour data shows mixed signals, but strong wage growth keeps pressure on the BoE to stay cautious on rate cuts.EUR/GBP tests key technical support around the 100-day Moving Average.
The Euro (EUR) remains under pressure against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday as diverging monetary policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) continue to drive sentiment.At the time of writing, EUR/GBP trades near 0.8419, slightly below a critical support zone but showing signs of stabilization ahead of high-impact events.On Tuesday, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index offered a modestly positive surprise in forward-looking expectations but was offset by a disappointing current conditions component. Market participants largely ignored the data, instead focusing on ECB signals that continue to point toward interest rate cuts as early as June, reinforcing the bearish bias for the Euro. In contrast, the BoE has maintained a cautious stance, waiting for more sustained disinflation signals before committing to a dovish pivot.UK labour data mixed, but wage growth complicates BoE outlookEconomic data released Tuesday by the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) offered a nuanced view of domestic labour conditions. The ILO Unemployment Rate, a three-month moving average of joblessness calculated by the International Labour Organization, rose slightly to 4.5%, up from 4.4% and in line with forecasts. Meanwhile, the Claimant Count, which measures the number of people applying for unemployment-related benefits, rose by 5,200 in April. Though an increase, this figure was far better than the expected 22,300, suggesting some resilience.However, Employment Change, a metric tracking the net number of jobs added, slowed to 112,000 in March from 206,000 in February, pointing to reduced hiring momentum. The most notable takeaway came from the Average Earnings Index, a gauge of wage inflation. Wages excluding bonuses rose 5.6% YoY, just under the forecast of 5.7%. Earnings, including bonuses, rose 5.5%, beating expectations of 5.2%. These elevated pay figures indicate persistent inflationary pressure in the labour market, complicating the BoE’s ability to ease policy without undermining its inflation target.ECB easing bias under scrutiny ahead of German inflation dataThe Euro's recent underperformance also reflects market conviction that the ECB will act sooner than its peers in delivering policy easing. Policymakers have increasingly signaled their comfort with cutting interest rates as inflation trends lower across the euro area. Focus now shifts to Wednesday’s German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for April, a Eurozone-aligned inflation measure, which is expected to remain steady at 2.2% YoY.A downside surprise could cement expectations of a June rate cut, likely deepening the EUR/GBP downtrend.EUR/GBP clings to support as bears eye deeper retracementFrom a technical perspective, EUR/GBP is testing support near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March–April rally, a zone commonly viewed by traders as a critical inflection point. This level, located at 0.8432, often signals a potential reversal if held, or a continuation of the trend if broken decisively.The pair is currently trading just beneath this Fibonacci level at 0.8419, while still hovering above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8402, which acts as dynamic support.The 50-day SMA, now at 0.8467, serves as the first layer of resistance, aligning closely with the 50% retracement level at 0.8490. A daily close below both the 61.8% retracement and the 100-day SMA would confirm a bearish continuation, opening the door toward the 78.6% retracement at 0.8349, followed by full retracement support at 0.8242.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a momentum oscillator measuring overbought or oversold conditions — is currently below 38, moderately above the oversold threshold of 30. This suggests downside momentum may be stretched, though not necessarily exhausted.EUR/GBP daily chart
As long as EUR/GBP remains below the 50-day SMA and fails to reclaim key Fibonacci levels, technical bias favors the downside. Traders will be looking for cues from BoE and ECB speakers this week, alongside the German inflation release, for the next directional move. A confirmed break below 0.8400 would further embolden bears, while a recovery above 0.8490 could signal a near-term reversal. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
The Euro (EUR) remains under pressure against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday as diverging monetary policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) continue to drive sentiment.At the time of writing, EUR/GBP trades near 0.8419, slightly below a critical support zone but showing signs of stabilization ahead of high-impact events.On Tuesday, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index offered a modestly positive surprise in forward-looking expectations but was offset by a disappointing current conditions component. Market participants largely ignored the data, instead focusing on ECB signals that continue to point toward interest rate cuts as early as June, reinforcing the bearish bias for the Euro. In contrast, the BoE has maintained a cautious stance, waiting for more sustained disinflation signals before committing to a dovish pivot.UK labour data mixed, but wage growth complicates BoE outlookEconomic data released Tuesday by the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) offered a nuanced view of domestic labour conditions. The ILO Unemployment Rate, a three-month moving average of joblessness calculated by the International Labour Organization, rose slightly to 4.5%, up from 4.4% and in line with forecasts. Meanwhile, the Claimant Count, which measures the number of people applying for unemployment-related benefits, rose by 5,200 in April. Though an increase, this figure was far better than the expected 22,300, suggesting some resilience.However, Employment Change, a metric tracking the net number of jobs added, slowed to 112,000 in March from 206,000 in February, pointing to reduced hiring momentum. The most notable takeaway came from the Average Earnings Index, a gauge of wage inflation. Wages excluding bonuses rose 5.6% YoY, just under the forecast of 5.7%. Earnings, including bonuses, rose 5.5%, beating expectations of 5.2%. These elevated pay figures indicate persistent inflationary pressure in the labour market, complicating the BoE’s ability to ease policy without undermining its inflation target.ECB easing bias under scrutiny ahead of German inflation dataThe Euro's recent underperformance also reflects market conviction that the ECB will act sooner than its peers in delivering policy easing. Policymakers have increasingly signaled their comfort with cutting interest rates as inflation trends lower across the euro area. Focus now shifts to Wednesday’s German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for April, a Eurozone-aligned inflation measure, which is expected to remain steady at 2.2% YoY.A downside surprise could cement expectations of a June rate cut, likely deepening the EUR/GBP downtrend.EUR/GBP clings to support as bears eye deeper retracementFrom a technical perspective, EUR/GBP is testing support near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March–April rally, a zone commonly viewed by traders as a critical inflection point. This level, located at 0.8432, often signals a potential reversal if held, or a continuation of the trend if broken decisively.The pair is currently trading just beneath this Fibonacci level at 0.8419, while still hovering above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8402, which acts as dynamic support.The 50-day SMA, now at 0.8467, serves as the first layer of resistance, aligning closely with the 50% retracement level at 0.8490. A daily close below both the 61.8% retracement and the 100-day SMA would confirm a bearish continuation, opening the door toward the 78.6% retracement at 0.8349, followed by full retracement support at 0.8242.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a momentum oscillator measuring overbought or oversold conditions — is currently below 38, moderately above the oversold threshold of 30. This suggests downside momentum may be stretched, though not necessarily exhausted.EUR/GBP daily chart
As long as EUR/GBP remains below the 50-day SMA and fails to reclaim key Fibonacci levels, technical bias favors the downside. Traders will be looking for cues from BoE and ECB speakers this week, alongside the German inflation release, for the next directional move. A confirmed break below 0.8400 would further embolden bears, while a recovery above 0.8490 could signal a near-term reversal. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
17:34 Silver trims early gains, holds above 50-day EMA as weak US CPI tempers Fed tightening bets
Silver (XAG/USD) is hovering above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.50 at the time of writing on Tuesday. However, the white metal experienced notable volatility, initially rallying close to 2% during the Asian session.
XAG/USD erases earlier gains after surging nearly 2% during the Asian session on Tuesday.
April US CPI came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain a patient stance.
Price tests 50-day EMA at $32.50, symmetrical triangle formation keeps the broader trend indecisive.
Silver (XAG/USD) is hovering above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.50 at the time of writing on Tuesday. However, the white metal experienced notable volatility, initially rallying close to 2% during the Asian session. Still, the rally lost steam ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with XAG/USD retreating and paring all intraday gains as traders grew cautious. The metal has since found some stability following a weaker-than-expected inflation print, reviving hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming months.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI eased to 2.3% year-over-year in April – its lowest reading since February 2021 and slightly below the 2.4% market forecast. On a month-over-month basis, CPI rose 0.2%, recovering from a 0.1% contraction in March but still under the projected 0.3% increase. Meanwhile, core inflation held steady at 2.8% annually, staying at a four-year low.The softer inflation print will reduce pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates elevated and could revive hopes of rate cuts, improving sentiment toward non-yielding assets like silver.Adding to the tailwinds, markets are also digesting the implications of a 90-day tariff rollback between the US and China. Under the agreement, both countries agreed to reduce tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively, providing a temporary lift to risk appetite. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed plans to meet with Chinese counterparts in the coming weeks to explore the framework for a broader trade agreement.
Technical analysis: Silver consolidates below key resistance as symmetrical triangle tightens
XAG/USD is holding near $32.50 in Tuesday's session, consolidating beneath a key descending trendline resistance around the $33.00 mark. The price action is compressing into the apex of a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, signaling a potential breakout in either direction.The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $32.50, a level that has consistently acted as strong dynamic support in recent sessions. The next downside support lies at the $32.00 psychological level. A firm break below this zone could trigger deeper losses toward the $31.00 psychological region, which aligns with the 200-day EMA at $31.11 – last visited in mid-April.On the momentum side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is flat at 50.14, signaling indecision and a lack of momentum in either direction. Broadly, the pair remains locked within a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting traders are awaiting a fundamental catalyst to trigger the next breakout. A decisive move above the descending trendline near $33.00 could fuel bullish momentum toward $34.00 and eventually $35.00.However, failure to break above resistance and a drop below $31.00 would negate the bullish bias and invite fresh selling pressure.
April US CPI came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain a patient stance.
Price tests 50-day EMA at $32.50, symmetrical triangle formation keeps the broader trend indecisive.
Silver (XAG/USD) is hovering above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.50 at the time of writing on Tuesday. However, the white metal experienced notable volatility, initially rallying close to 2% during the Asian session. Still, the rally lost steam ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with XAG/USD retreating and paring all intraday gains as traders grew cautious. The metal has since found some stability following a weaker-than-expected inflation print, reviving hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming months.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI eased to 2.3% year-over-year in April – its lowest reading since February 2021 and slightly below the 2.4% market forecast. On a month-over-month basis, CPI rose 0.2%, recovering from a 0.1% contraction in March but still under the projected 0.3% increase. Meanwhile, core inflation held steady at 2.8% annually, staying at a four-year low.The softer inflation print will reduce pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates elevated and could revive hopes of rate cuts, improving sentiment toward non-yielding assets like silver.Adding to the tailwinds, markets are also digesting the implications of a 90-day tariff rollback between the US and China. Under the agreement, both countries agreed to reduce tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively, providing a temporary lift to risk appetite. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed plans to meet with Chinese counterparts in the coming weeks to explore the framework for a broader trade agreement.
Technical analysis: Silver consolidates below key resistance as symmetrical triangle tightens
XAG/USD is holding near $32.50 in Tuesday's session, consolidating beneath a key descending trendline resistance around the $33.00 mark. The price action is compressing into the apex of a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, signaling a potential breakout in either direction.The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $32.50, a level that has consistently acted as strong dynamic support in recent sessions. The next downside support lies at the $32.00 psychological level. A firm break below this zone could trigger deeper losses toward the $31.00 psychological region, which aligns with the 200-day EMA at $31.11 – last visited in mid-April.On the momentum side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is flat at 50.14, signaling indecision and a lack of momentum in either direction. Broadly, the pair remains locked within a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting traders are awaiting a fundamental catalyst to trigger the next breakout. A decisive move above the descending trendline near $33.00 could fuel bullish momentum toward $34.00 and eventually $35.00.However, failure to break above resistance and a drop below $31.00 would negate the bullish bias and invite fresh selling pressure.
17:22 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Corrects to near 0.8400
The USD/CHF pair retraces to near the round-level support of 0.8400 during North American trading hours on Tuesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF corrects to near 0.8400 as the US Dollar faces pressure due to slower-than-expected US CPI data for April.Market expectations for the Fed to leave interest rates steady in April remained steady despite US inflation cooling down.The Swiss Franc pair breaks above the 20-day EMA, suggesting a strong uptrend.The USD/CHF pair retraces to near the round-level support of 0.8400 during North American trading hours on Tuesday. The Swiss Franc pair corrects as the US Dollar faces selling pressure after the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which showed that price pressures rose at a moderate pace.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, corrects to near 101.30 from the monthly high around 102.00 posted on Monday.According to the CPI report, the headline inflation rose at a slower pace of 2.3% year-on-year, compared to the estimates and the prior release of 2.4%. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – grew steadily by 2.8%, as expected.Cooling inflationary pressures have not impacted market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to leave interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in July remained steady at 61.4%. On Monday, traders pare Fed dovish bets for the July policy meeting after the US and China agreed to lower tariffs by 115% for 90 days.Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) trades higher against its peers, except antipodeans, on Tuesday. Swiss Franc PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.48% -0.40% -0.37% 0.16% -0.90% -0.95% -0.39% EUR 0.48% 0.09% 0.12% 0.64% -0.42% -0.45% 0.12% GBP 0.40% -0.09% 0.04% 0.55% -0.50% -0.56% 0.04% JPY 0.37% -0.12% -0.04% 0.54% -0.53% -0.60% 0.03% CAD -0.16% -0.64% -0.55% -0.54% -1.14% -1.11% -0.53% AUD 0.90% 0.42% 0.50% 0.53% 1.14% -0.04% 0.54% NZD 0.95% 0.45% 0.56% 0.60% 1.11% 0.04% 0.58% CHF 0.39% -0.12% -0.04% -0.03% 0.53% -0.54% -0.58% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
USD/CHF gauges cushion near the horizontal support plotted from the September 6 low of 0.8375, which used to be a major resistance for the pair. The asset has climbed above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.8326, indicating a strong bullish trend.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps to near 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would come into effect if the RSI breaks above the 60.00 level.A fresh upside move in the pair towards the April 10 high of 0.8580 and the April 8 high of 0.8611 would appear if it breaks above the psychological level of 0.8500.On the flip side, a downside move below the May 7 low of 0.8186 would drag the asset towards the April 11 low of 0.8100, followed by the April 21 low of 0.8040.USD/CHF daily chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
16:49 USD/CAD holds steady as Fed path and BoC divergence loom
USD/CAD is poised at a critical juncture following the release of April’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which delivered a mild downside surprise across key inflation components.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US CPI misses estimates, Fed outlook to define short-term USD/CAD trajectory.USD/CAD tests key inflection zone below psychological resistance.The Loonie pair monitors economic outlook as domestic headwinds mount.USD/CAD is poised at a critical juncture following the release of April’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which delivered a mild downside surprise across key inflation components. With several high-profile Federal Reserve (Fed) speeches still ahead this week, the pair's near-term trajectory may be shaped by evolving rate expectations and diverging policy signals between the Fed and the Bank of Canada (BoC).At the time of writing, the US Dollar (USD) is trading around 1.3998, up 0.17% against the Canadian Dollar (CAD), as the Loonie remains under pressure amid rising focus on relative policy divergence and commodity-linked headwinds.US Inflation softens in April, bolstering the case for Fed rate cutsThe April US CPI report revealed a clear moderation in inflation pressures. Headline CPI rose by 0.2% (MoM), falling short of the 0.3% consensus and rebounding from a -0.1% decline in March. On a YoY basis, headline inflation slowed to 2.3%, also missing expectations of 2.4%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose by 0.2% (MoM), below the 0.3% estimate, though marginally above the 0.1% reading from the prior month. On an annual basis, core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, in line with forecasts.The softer-than-expected inflation data has increased the probability of Fed policy easing later this year, with markets now assigning a higher likelihood of the first rate cut occurring in September, according to CME FedWatch. However, CPI is just one piece of the puzzle. The broader macroeconomic narrative now turns to incoming Fed communications, labor market data, and global trade risks, which will further clarify the central bank’s policy path.Fed speakers and BoC uncertainty add layers to USD/CAD dynamicsTraders will be closely watching remarks from Fed officials Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, and Mary C. Daly on Wednesday, followed by a critical speech from Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. These comments will offer fresh insights into whether the Fed views the recent disinflation trend as sufficient to warrant rate cuts or whether a more cautious approach will prevail.Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada faces its own domestic challenges. With inflation trending lower and economic growth losing momentum, nearly 60% of analysts now anticipate a BoC rate cut at its next meeting. The widening policy gap between the Fed and BoC is emerging as a central theme for USD/CAD traders, and could amplify directional moves in the coming weeks.Oil prices, another crucial variable for the Canadian Dollar, remain volatile amid concerns over global demand and geopolitical disruptions. As a major exporter, Canada’s economic outlook and currency are highly sensitive to swings in crude, making energy market trends another key component of USD/CAD volatility.USD/CAD struggles at key resistance as technical indicators signal pivotal inflection pointThe USD/CAD pair recently attempted to advance beyond the key psychological threshold of 1.4000 but was unable to maintain momentum above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which currently stands at 1.4020. This inability to break higher is underscored by the long upper shadow on Tuesday’s candlestick, reflecting a pronounced rejection by sellers at elevated levels.Consequently, the pair has retreated below 1.4000, reaffirming the 200-day SMA as a significant resistance barrier. At the same time, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the September 2024 low to the February 2025 high, is offering immediate support near 1.3940. The confluence of resistance and support within the 1.3940 to 1.4000 range is shaping a critical technical inflection zone.USD/CAD daily chartThe Relative Strength Index (RSI), presently at 54.00, indicates modest bullish momentum without signaling overbought conditions, implying that directional bias may depend on forthcoming fundamental or technical catalysts. Should the pair decisively break below 1.3940, it may invite increased selling pressure, potentially triggering a move toward the November 2024 low at 1.3823 and extending further to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3714.Conversely, a firm daily close above the 200-day SMA would likely shift sentiment in favor of the bulls, opening the path toward the 50% retracement level at 1.4106, with a possible continuation toward the April high around 1.4415. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $680.2B from previous $677.8B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $680.2B from previous $677.8B
15:56 United States Redbook Index (YoY) down to 5.8% in May 9 from previous 6.9%
United States Redbook Index (YoY) down to 5.8% in May 9 from previous 6.9%
15:31 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) came in at 320.795 below forecasts (320.88) in April
United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) came in at 320.795 below forecasts (320.88) in April
15:31 United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a rose from previous 325.66 to 326.43 in April
United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a rose from previous 325.66 to 326.43 in April
15:31 United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.4%) in April
United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.4%) in April
15:30 Germany Current Account n.s.a. climbed from previous €20B to €34.1B in March
Germany Current Account n.s.a. climbed from previous €20B to €34.1B in March
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) meets forecasts (2.8%) in April
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) meets forecasts (2.8%) in April
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in April
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in April
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.2% below forecasts (0.3%) in April
United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.2% below forecasts (0.3%) in April
15:10 EUR offers no reaction to ZEW sentiment data – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is trading flat vs. the US Dollar (USD) and consolidating around 1.11 into Tuesday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Euro (EUR) is trading flat vs. the US Dollar (USD) and consolidating around 1.11 into Tuesday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Euro remains vulnerable to Fed/ECB divergence"Market participants showed little reaction to the mixed ZEW investor sentiment data out of Germany, as the expectations sub-component offered a modest surprise while the current situation subindex delivered a minor disappointment." "The ZEW figures were the weekly data highlight for Europe and focus will now shift to the ECB, where policymakers appear to be maintaining a bias to easing, creating a stark contrast to the neutral, ‘patient’ messaging from the Fed." "EUR/USD’s RSI has drifted below 50, into bearish territory. The 50 day MA (1.1084) appears to be offering modest support, however meaningful support is not expected above the psychologically important 1.10 level and the mid-March highs around 1.0950."
15:08 CAD trading defensively as wider yield spreads remain a drag – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is entering Tuesday’s NA session with a marginal decline vs. the US Dollar (USD) as it continues to trade defensively in the aftermath of Monday’s broad-based USD rally, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is entering Tuesday’s NA session with a marginal decline vs. the US Dollar (USD) as it continues to trade defensively in the aftermath of Monday’s broad-based USD rally, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD/CAD appears well supported "The shift in the outlook for central bank policy has been a drag for the CAD, as markets have faded a good portion of their expectations for near-term Fed cuts while maintaining a decent amount of easing from the BoC. The widening of the 2Y US-Canada yield spread appears to have taken a pause however it will likely see a reaction to the 8:30am ET US CPI release." "For Canada, there are no scheduled releases ahead of Wednesday’s building permits and Thursday’s manufacturing sales data. The Bank of Canada’s calendar is also empty. On trade, developments have been limited in the aftermath of last Tuesday’s Trump/Carney meeting." "Momentum is bullish, as evidenced by the RSI’s climb above 50. USD/CAD appears well supported as it pushes toward its 200 day MA (1.4018) following its recent break of the 61.8% retracement level of the September/February rally at 1.3944. The next important technical level is the midpoint of the range around 1.4100 and mid/late February congestion level around 1.4200. We look to near-term support between 1.3900 and 1.3850."
15:06 USD soft but holding on to recent gains ahead of inflation data – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (YSD) is trading softly against a narrow set of G10 currencies but holding on to the bulk of its recent gains as we head into Tuesday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The US Dollar (YSD) is trading softly against a narrow set of G10 currencies but holding on to the bulk of its recent gains as we head into Tuesday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD trading softly but holding onto bulk of recent gains into CPI data"The outperformance of SEK, AUD, and NZD would typically be suggestive of risk appetite while the modest gains in havens CHF and JPY are likely more a reflection of stabilization following their spectacular declines on Monday. NOK, MXN, and GBP are seeing similar bounces off of their recent local lows while the EUR and CAD trade flat vs. the USD. Markets appear to be focusing on the US fiscal outlook with the release of a draft plan for President Trump’s $4trn tax cuts (and $1.5trn spending reductions) ahead of the US CPI release at 8:30am ET.""The broader market’s tone appears neutral, with quiet trading across Asia and Europe as US equity futures consolidate their recent gains. The US 10Y yield is also quietly consolidating its recent climb and trading in a tight range around 4.45% as the 2Y hovers just below 4.00%. Oil prices appear well supported as WTI continues to recover from last week’s OPEC-driven decline, and copper is steady and consolidating around the midpoint of its recent range." "The price of gold also appears to have found support around its May 1 low, confirming $3200 as an important near-term technical level. Tuesday’s highlight will be the release of US CPI for the month of April, with both headline and core expected to remain unchanged at 2.4% y/y and 2.8% y/y, respectively. There are no Fed speakers scheduled for Tuesday’s NA session, with headline risk limited to President Trump’s trip to the Middle East and his arrival in Saudi Arabia for a state visit."
14:46 USD/JPY steadies as BoJ stays hawkish amid US tariff uncertainty, breakout above 148.50 eyed
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is holding steady near 148.00 against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, pausing after a steep rise in the previous day. Despite the short pullback, the US Dollar remains resilient, supported by a temporary easing in US-China trade tensions.
USD/JPY trades flat on Tuesday after surging nearly 2% in the previous day, supported by a stronger US Dollar on easing trade tensions.
BoJ signals commitment to gradual rate hikes, viewing US tariffs as short-term disruptions with limited impact on long-term inflation.
Technically, the pair faces resistance at 148.65, with key support at the 50 EMA and downside risk toward 145.00 and 142.00.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is holding steady near 148.00 against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, pausing after a steep rise in the previous day. Despite the short pullback, the US Dollar remains resilient, supported by a temporary easing in US-China trade tensions. Over the weekend, negotiators from both sides met in Switzerland and agreed to reduce tariffs to 30% for the US imports from China and 10% for Chinese imports, for a 90-day period, restoring some investor confidence and risk appetite. Meanwhile, Japan appears to be holding firm in its tariff negotiations with the US, possibly aiming to buy time in the hope that domestic pressure in the US will lead to a better deal. Talks so far have not yielded significant results.
On the Japanese side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to adopt a cautiously hawkish stance despite growing concerns over trade-related headwinds. Speaking in parliament on Tuesday, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank expects both wages and prices to keep rising, reaffirming the board’s view that underlying inflation pressures remain intact. Uchida noted that while US tariffs could hurt near-term economic growth, the BoJ would continue to raise interest rates if the current economic and inflation outlook unfolds as projected.This policy direction is in line with the BoJ’s April 30–May 1 policy meeting summary, which characterized the tariff effects as short-term shocks with limited long-term impact on inflation or growth potential. Nonetheless, policymakers emphasized the need to remain flexible and monitor downside risks closely as global uncertainty persists.Market participants are now focused on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, scheduled for release later today. Economists expect the headline CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, maintaining an annual rate of 2.4%, while core CPI is anticipated to increase by 0.3% in April, holding steady at 2.8% year-over-year.
USD/JPY consolidates near 148.00, bulls eye 148.65 breakout while key support holds above 145.00Technically, the pair decisively broke above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on Monday but faced intraday rejection on Tuesday at the previous day’s high of 148.65. A sustained move above this resistance could open the door for a rally toward the 150.00 psychological mark, which aligns with the 200 EMA at 149.64 and April’s swing highs.On the downside, the 50-day EMA now offers immediate support near 146.30. A break below this level may shift focus toward the 145.00 psychological level. Failure to hold above that zone could attract further selling pressure, exposing last week’s low around the 142.00 regionThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is trending higher, approaching the overbought region, but currently sits at 59.68, suggesting bullish momentum.
BoJ signals commitment to gradual rate hikes, viewing US tariffs as short-term disruptions with limited impact on long-term inflation.
Technically, the pair faces resistance at 148.65, with key support at the 50 EMA and downside risk toward 145.00 and 142.00.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is holding steady near 148.00 against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, pausing after a steep rise in the previous day. Despite the short pullback, the US Dollar remains resilient, supported by a temporary easing in US-China trade tensions. Over the weekend, negotiators from both sides met in Switzerland and agreed to reduce tariffs to 30% for the US imports from China and 10% for Chinese imports, for a 90-day period, restoring some investor confidence and risk appetite. Meanwhile, Japan appears to be holding firm in its tariff negotiations with the US, possibly aiming to buy time in the hope that domestic pressure in the US will lead to a better deal. Talks so far have not yielded significant results.
On the Japanese side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to adopt a cautiously hawkish stance despite growing concerns over trade-related headwinds. Speaking in parliament on Tuesday, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank expects both wages and prices to keep rising, reaffirming the board’s view that underlying inflation pressures remain intact. Uchida noted that while US tariffs could hurt near-term economic growth, the BoJ would continue to raise interest rates if the current economic and inflation outlook unfolds as projected.This policy direction is in line with the BoJ’s April 30–May 1 policy meeting summary, which characterized the tariff effects as short-term shocks with limited long-term impact on inflation or growth potential. Nonetheless, policymakers emphasized the need to remain flexible and monitor downside risks closely as global uncertainty persists.Market participants are now focused on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, scheduled for release later today. Economists expect the headline CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, maintaining an annual rate of 2.4%, while core CPI is anticipated to increase by 0.3% in April, holding steady at 2.8% year-over-year.
USD/JPY consolidates near 148.00, bulls eye 148.65 breakout while key support holds above 145.00Technically, the pair decisively broke above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on Monday but faced intraday rejection on Tuesday at the previous day’s high of 148.65. A sustained move above this resistance could open the door for a rally toward the 150.00 psychological mark, which aligns with the 200 EMA at 149.64 and April’s swing highs.On the downside, the 50-day EMA now offers immediate support near 146.30. A break below this level may shift focus toward the 145.00 psychological level. Failure to hold above that zone could attract further selling pressure, exposing last week’s low around the 142.00 regionThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is trending higher, approaching the overbought region, but currently sits at 59.68, suggesting bullish momentum.
14:23 US Trade Rep. Greer: We're moving as quickly as we can on trade deals
United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer told CNBC on Tuesday that it will take time to end non-tariff barriers with China.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer told CNBC on Tuesday that it will take time to end non-tariff barriers with China.Key takeaways"I will talk to the Indian commerce minister Tuesday, then flying to South Korea.""We are discussing other deals in parallel.""We're moving as quickly as we can on trade deals.""The US is not relying on any trade partner for critical goods.""Global 10% tariff is a strong incentive to reduce the deficit."Market reactionThese comments failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was down 0.2% on the day at 101.58. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
14:17 AUD/USD jumps above 0.6400 as antipodeans outperform on US-China tariff pause
The AUD/USD pair climbs to near 0.6410 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The Aussie pair strengthens on the outperformance of antipodeans after the United States (US) and China averted the trade war after agreeing to lower import duties following a two-day meeting in Switzerland.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD gains sharply above 0.6400 as US-China trade truce lifts demand of antipodeans.The US and China have agreed to lower tariffs by 115% for 90 days.Investors await the US CPI and Australian employment data for April.The AUD/USD pair climbs to near 0.6410 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The Aussie pair strengthens on the outperformance of antipodeans after the United States (US) and China averted the trade war after agreeing to lower import duties following a two-day meeting in Switzerland. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.18% -0.23% -0.27% 0.11% -0.62% -0.67% -0.50% EUR 0.18% -0.05% -0.08% 0.27% -0.44% -0.45% -0.29% GBP 0.23% 0.05% -0.02% 0.33% -0.39% -0.44% -0.25% JPY 0.27% 0.08% 0.02% 0.37% -0.36% -0.43% -0.19% CAD -0.11% -0.27% -0.33% -0.37% -0.81% -0.77% -0.60% AUD 0.62% 0.44% 0.39% 0.36% 0.81% -0.04% 0.15% NZD 0.67% 0.45% 0.44% 0.43% 0.77% 0.04% 0.18% CHF 0.50% 0.29% 0.25% 0.19% 0.60% -0.15% -0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
In a scheduled briefing on Monday, the comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Washington and Beijing have reduced tariffs by 115% to 10% and 30%, respectively, for 90 days. The news resulted in a sharp increase in the US Dollar and lifted antipodeans, given their sensitivity to the Chinese economy as its close trading partners, on hopes that the consequences of the tariff war will be lower than what had been anticipated.US Treasury Bessent also assured that the economy is not aiming for generalized decoupling between the two largest economies in the world, a move that downplays fears of a resurgence in the US-China trade war.Domestically, the Australian Dollar (AUD) will be influenced by the labor market data for April, which will be released on Tuesday. The data is expected to show that the economy added 20K fresh workers, and the Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1%.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) clings to Monday’s gains ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. US headline and core CPI are expected to have risen at a steady pace of 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively, year-on-year. On month, both factors are estimated to have grown by 0.3%. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
14:07 Mexican Peso strengthens on improved global risk sentiment ahead of US inflation data
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is trading higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as a rebound in global risk sentiment supports emerging market currencies ahead of a key macroeconomic week. At the time of writing, USD/MXN is trading around 19.578, down 0.30% intraday.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Mexican Peso edges higher as markets adopt a risk-on tone before key macro events affecting the USD/MXN pair.The US CPI report due Tuesday is expected to show stable inflation, shaping rate cut expectations.USD/MXN holds above trendline resistance as traders wait for the next Fed cue.The Mexican Peso (MXN) is trading higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as a rebound in global risk sentiment supports emerging market currencies ahead of a key macroeconomic week. At the time of writing, USD/MXN is trading around 19.578, down 0.30% intraday.Traders are positioning cautiously before the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due later on Tuesday, and the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) interest rate decision on Thursday, both of which could significantly impact USD/MXN direction in the short term.US CPI report to set the tone for Fed outlookThe April US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due Tuesday, is expected to show a 0.3% MoM increase in both headline and core inflation. On a yearly basis, headline inflation is projected to hold steady at 2.4%, while core Inflation, which excludes food and energy, is seen remaining unchanged at 2.8%. These figures are critical for shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next policy move.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets continue to price in that the US central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, but that outlook remains highly sensitive to inflation data. A stronger CPI print could delay those expectations, while a softer reading may solidify the case for an earlier cut.The inflation release will be followed later this week by a series of Fed speeches, including comments from Governors Waller, Jefferson, and Daly on Wednesday, and Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. These appearances could offer further insight into whether the Fed is committed to holding rates steady or preparing to shift toward a more dovish stance.Banxico is expected to continue on a dovish pathThe Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is widely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% at Thursday’s policy meeting.According to a Reuters poll published on Monday, 30 out of 31 economists anticipate this outcome despite inflation remaining near the upper bound of Banxico’s target range. In its most recent statement, the central bank signaled that further significant rate adjustments could be considered in upcoming meetings, provided inflation dynamics allow.As Banxico continues its easing cycle while the Federal Reserve holds rates steady, the narrowing interest rate differential between Mexico and the United States typically dampens the appeal of peso-denominated assets for yield-focused investors. However, the Peso’s recent strength suggests this divergence may already be largely priced in, with markets now turning their attention to forward guidance and broader external risk sentiment.Mexican Peso daily digest: US CPI and Banxico decision in focusA 0.50% rate cut by Banxico on Thursday would mark the third consecutive cut of this size and the seventh straight rate cut since the central bank began its monetary easing cycle in June 2024. The decision is driven by a continued moderation in inflation, which currently stands at 3.93%, within Banxico’s target range.The Mexican economy remains under pressure, another factor that supports interest-rate cuts. Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product expanded 0.2% in Q1, following a contraction in the previous quarter, while March industrial output showed only a modest 1.9% year-over-year increase.Mexico’s Finance Minister Edgar Amador stated he is "reasonably confident" about the Treasury’s fiscal and growth projections for the year, forecasting a healthy 1.9% growth in 2025, contrary to the estimates of a near stagnation, according to most analysts.With the Fed keeping interest rates elevated while Banxico moves toward easing, capital flows continue to favor US-denominated assets. This dynamic adds sustained downward pressure on the Peso.Longstanding 25% US tariffs on Mexican steel, aluminum, and automobiles have raised production costs and weakened Mexico’s export competitiveness, particularly in the manufacturing sector, a key engine of economic activity.On Sunday, the US Department of Agriculture announced a 15-day suspension of cattle, horse, and bison imports from Mexico due to the spread of the New World screwworm. The measure will be reviewed monthly based on containment progress. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum criticized the suspension as “unfair,” citing its economic impact on agriculture. While not a major driver of peso weakness on its own, the ban contributes to broader trade uncertainty.Mexico and the US are preparing for an early review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), originally scheduled for 2026 and now likely to begin later this year. The review may reshape trade rules, tariffs, and labor terms, increasing uncertainty around future economic conditions.Stronger commodity exports – particularly Oil and agricultural goods – offer some support, but are insufficient to offset the Peso's structural headwinds from policy divergence, trade tensions, and shifting capital flows.Technical analysis: USD/MXN pauses above prior trendline resistanceUSD/MXN continues to trade within a narrow consolidation range, holding between key support at the April low of 19.42 and resistance at 19.60-19.65, which also aligns with a descending trendline from last month’s highs. Despite several intraday attempts, the pair has recently failed to break above this ceiling. A sustained move beyond 19.60 could open the door toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-May move at 19.81, followed by the 38.2% level at 20.06. However, downside risks remain if support at 19.42 gives way, potentially exposing the pair to further losses toward the 19.30-19.20 region. The 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around 20.22, is sloping lower and reinforces the prevailing bearish momentum. USD/MXN daily chartMeanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at around 43, indicating weak bullish pressure and a market still biased to the downside. Overall, the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish unless the pair decisively breaks above the 19.60 resistance zone. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (MoM) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue May 13, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 0.3% Previous: -0.1% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
13:57 Chinese Copper imports have reached their limit – Commerzbank
In April, China imported a record-breaking 2.92 million tons of Copper ore and concentrate. Over the last 12 months, a total of 28.8 million tons were imported, which is also a record high.
In April, China imported a record-breaking 2.92 million tons of Copper ore and concentrate. Over the last 12 months, a total of 28.8 million tons were imported, which is also a record high. China's Copper imports have changed significantly in recent years, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Between 2010 and 2024, imports increase by over 300%"While in 2010 China imported around 1.5 times more Copper ore and concentrate than unwrought Copper and Copper products, this ratio has now risen to over five. Between 2010 and 2024, imports of ore and concentrate increased by over 300%, whereas imports of unwrought Copper and products only increased by 30% in total over the same period. Consequently, domestic production of Copper products increased significantly during this period, more than doubling.""However, current record levels of Copper ore and concentrate imports should not obscure the fact that import growth has slowed significantly in recent months. Even though April did show a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, examining a 12-month period reveals that import momentum has cooled, falling from around 9% growth in April last year to 2.4% today." "However, this may be more due to the global supply of Copper ore than demand from China. According to the US Geological Survey, supply increased by just 1.8% last year, and China imported around 65% of all global Copper ore and concentrate in 2023."
13:53 WTI extends winning streak on US-China trade truce
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, extends its winning streak for the fourth trading session on Tuesday. The Oil price climbs to near $62.00 as the 90-day agreement between the United States (US) and China to reduce tariffs substantially by 115% has boosted its demand outlook.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI jumps to near $62.00 as the US and China agreed to a 90-day pause in the tariff war.Traders pare Fed dovish bets for the July meeting after the US-China trade truce.Ukraine Zelenskyy insisted on meeting with Russian President Putin in Turkey this week.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, extends its winning streak for the fourth trading session on Tuesday. The Oil price climbs to near $62.00 as the 90-day agreement between the United States (US) and China to reduce tariffs substantially by 115% has boosted its demand outlook.On Monday, the US and China agreed to lower import duties to 10% and 30%, respectively, aiming to avert the trade war that led market experts to downgrade the global economic outlook. Signs of improving US-China trade relations have strengthened the Oil price, given that Beijing is the largest importer of energy in the world.Meanwhile, the temporary truce between the US and China has diminished market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the July meeting. Such a scenario could limit the upside in the Oil price. On Monday, Fed officials cheered the US-China deal and stated that the impact of tariffs will be lower than what they had anticipated earlier, but didn’t rule out fears of an increase in inflation.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to cut interest rates in the July meeting has dropped to 38.6% from 78% recorded a week ago.The next trigger for the Oil price will be a meeting between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, if Putin agrees to it. Zelenskyy has insisted on meeting with Putin in Turkey on Thursday to discuss the war in Ukraine. Positive outcomes from the war talks would be favorable for the Oil price. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
13:43 US Dollar unable to hold on to momentum ahead of US CPI
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, corrects to near 101.50 in the European trading session on Tuesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Dollar is on the backfoot on Tuesday as the US-China trade deal euphoria quickly dampens. Traders brace for US CPI while details remain sketchy on the US-China trade deal. The US Dollar Index slips back to 101.50 after failing to reclaim the 102.00 level.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, corrects to near 101.50 in the European trading session on Tuesday. The partial paring back of Monday’s gains comes as traders become wary of the lack of detail on the recent trade deal between China and the United States (US). Besides slashing the tariffs, no forward dates or topics are set, raising questions on what has been discussed, similar to the UK-US trade deal from Thursday. Meanwhile, on the economic data front, some dark clouds could form above the Greenback this Tuesday with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for April. Markets expect an uptick in the monthly core and headline figures as US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ took place at the start of April. Overnight, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President of Chicago Austan Goolsbee warned that even current tariff levels will still have an inflationary impulse, the New York Times reported.Daily digest market movers: Inflation risk hangoverOn Monday, President Trump lashed out at the European Union (EU), saying that the US has the upper hand in its trade discussions with the EU. "The European Union is in many ways nastier than China. We've just started with them. We have all the cards. They treated us very unfairly," Trump said at the White House.At 10:00 GMT, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Business Optimism Index for April. The actual number came in at 95.8 compared to the previous 97.4. The expectation was for a 94.5. At 12:30 GMT, the April US Consumer Price Index data will be released:Monthly headline CPI is expected to surge to 0.3%, from the disinflationary -0.1% in March. The yearly figure is set to remain stable at 2.4%.The Monthly core CPI is expected to tick up to 0.3%, from 0.1% in March. The yearly figure is set to remain unchanged at 2.8%.Equities see a very binary picture this Tuesday, with Japan being the final region where the trade deal euphoria materialised. Chinese equities cut off that euphoria and dipped nearly 2% at their closing bell. European equities are flat and looking for direction, while US Futures are facing less than 0.5% of losses before their opening bell. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June’s meeting at just 8.2%. Further ahead, the July 30 decision sees odds for rates being lower than current levels at 38.6%.The US 10-year yields trade around 4.45%, edging higher towards levels not seen since the beginning of April, and reducing rate cut bets for 2025.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Rejection angstWarning lights flashing this Tuesday for the US Dollar Index from a pure technical point of view. The fact that the DXY was unable to break 102.00 and closed below the important 101.90 technical level is opening up the door for a harsh retracement back to 100.00. The US CPI release later this Tuesday could be vital to either broaden the rejection with a weaker Greenback or push it firmly above 102.00.On the upside, the DXY is flirting with a technical rejection against 101.90, which acted as a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024. In case Dollar bulls push the DXY even higher, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 102.29 comes into play. On the other hand, the previous resistance at 100.22 is acting as firm support, followed by 97.73 near the low of 2025. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
13:42 Strong inflows into Chinese Gold ETFs in April – Commerzbank
The World Gold Council reported Gold ETF data for April last week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
The World Gold Council reported Gold ETF data for April last week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. The level of Gold ETF holdings in China is still low"According to the data, there were net inflows of 115 tons last month. This was the fifth consecutive monthly increase in Gold ETF holdings and also the strongest in more than three years. The composition of the inflows was also remarkable. This is because the majority occurred in Asia, particularly in China. Chinese Gold ETFs recorded net inflows of almost 65 tons." "The inflows in April were thus stronger than in the entire first quarter and in 2024 as a whole. The WGC attributes this to the rise in local Gold prices, the trade conflict and lower bond yields. The fact that investors in China are investing in Gold ETFs is new. For a long time, they favoured Gold in the form of bars and coins." "If this change in behaviour continues, significant ETF purchases could be expected in the coming months and years. After all, the level of Gold ETF holdings in China is still comparatively low at 203 tons. By way of comparison, Gold ETF holdings in the US amount to more than 1,750 tons and those in Europe to a good 1,340 tons."
13:39 USD/CNH can continue to weaken – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could continue to weaken vs Chinese Yuan (CNH); the major support at 7.1700 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, renewed downward momentum suggests 7.1700 is back in sight, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) could continue to weaken vs Chinese Yuan (CNH); the major support at 7.1700 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, renewed downward momentum suggests 7.1700 is back in sight, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Major support at 7.1700 is likely out of reach for now24-HOUR VIEW: "After edging higher for a few days, USD plummeted and closed at 7.1993 yesterday, down by 0.58%. The sharp selloff seems overdone, but with no signs of stabilisation just yet, USD could continue to weaken. However, the major support at 7.1700 is likely out of reach for now (there is another support level at 7.1840). Resistance levels are at 7.2100 and 7.2180." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "On 06 May (spot at 7.2150), we indicated that USD 'could range-trade for a few days before resuming its decline, and the level to watch is 7.1700.' As the downward momentum faltered, we indicated on 09 May (spot at 7.2400) that 'downward momentum is slowing rapidly, and a breach of 7.2600 (‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that USD is likely to trade in a range instead of declining.' USD did not breach 7.2600. Yesterday, it fell to a low of 7.1926. The renewed downward momentum suggests 7.1700 could be back in sight. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 7.2420 from 7.2600."
13:30 Silver, Platinum and Palladium also decline – Commerzbank
Silver, Platinum and Palladium initially rose after the tariff announcement yesterday, but subsequently also came under pressure in the wake of Gold, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Silver, Platinum and Palladium initially rose after the tariff announcement yesterday, but subsequently also came under pressure in the wake of Gold, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Gold/Silver ratio is still very high at just under 100"Although they lost slightly less than Gold, with the exception of Palladium, the price development is still disappointing. An easing of the trade conflict should actually have led to a price increase. After all, the previous escalation in tariffs had weighed on the prices of the three precious metals mentioned." "This was the only explanation for the significantly poorer price performance of Silver, Platinum and Palladium compared to Gold in recent weeks. Silver and Palladium are still trading below and Platinum at the level of early April, while Gold is still trading noticeably higher despite the recent decline." "The Gold/Silver ratio is still very high at just under 100, as are the price ratios of Gold to Platinum and Palladium at well above 3:1. Scepticism that there will be a lasting solution to the tariff conflict obviously still prevails."
13:25 USD/JPY: Likely to trade in a 146.50/148.60 range – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 146.50/148.60 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, further USD strength is likely, but it could first trade in a range for a few days; the level to monitor is 149.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 146.50/148.60 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, further USD strength is likely, but it could first trade in a range for a few days; the level to monitor is 149.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Further USD strength is likely24-HOUR VIEW: "USD surged yesterday, closing at 148.45, up by 2.14%, its largest one-day gain since March 2020. The outsized rise appears excessive. This, combined with deeply overbought conditions, suggests that instead of continuing to rise, USD is more likely to trade in a 146.50/148.60 range." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted the following last Friday, 09 May, when USD was at 145.70: 'The sharp rally has gained momentum, but USD must break and hold above 146.55 before a further sustained rise is likely. Looking ahead, above 146.55, there is another strong resistance at 147.10. On the downside, any pullback is likely to hold above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 143.90.' Yesterday, USD lifted off and skyrocketed, reaching a high of 148.64. While the sharp and rapid increase in momentum suggests further USD strength, deeply overbought conditions could lead to a few days of range trading first. The level to monitor on the upside is 149.30, while on the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 146.00 from 143.90."
13:22 Pound Sterling comes under pressure as UK labor market cools down
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades with caution against its peers on Tuesday after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for the three months ending March.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling faces pressure against its peers due to new data showing the UK labor market is cooling.Soft UK labor market data paves the way for more BoE interest-rate cuts.Investors await the US inflation on Tuesday as the next catalyst for the GBP/USD pair.The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades with caution against its peers on Tuesday after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for the three months ending March. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the ILO Unemployment Rate accelerated to 4.5%, as expected, from 4.4% in the three months ending February. In the same period, the economy added 112K fresh workers, significantly lower than the prior release of 206K. Slowing UK job growth reflects the impact of the increase in employers’ contribution to social security schemes and caution among business owners in anticipation of tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump. The report didn’t capture any effects from the tariff reduction agreement between the US and the UK, as it was announced way after the collection of the data.Additionally, cooling Average Earnings data is also unfavorable for the British currency. Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, grew moderately by 5.6%, against estimates of 5.7% and the prior release of 5.9%. The wage growth measure including bonuses rose by 5.5%, faster than expectations of 5.2% but slower than the former reading of 5.6%.Cooling employment and softening wage growth pave the way for more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE). Last week, the BoE slashed its borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25% and retained a “gradual and careful” monetary expansion approach.This week, investors brace for more volatility in the Pound Sterling as the preliminary UK Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial and Manufacturing Production data will be released on Thursday. The UK economy is expected to have grown by 0.6% in the first quarter of the year. Before that, US CPI data will be published during Tuesday’s session.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling ticks up against US Dollar, outlook remains fragileThe Pound Sterling edges higher to near 1.3210 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair ticks up as the US Dollar takes a breather after a strong upside move on Monday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto the previous day’s gains around 101.60.The USD Index rallied on Monday after the US and China agreed to a 90-day truce after a two-day meeting in Switzerland over the weekend. In a joint statement, the US and China have announced that they have lowered tariffs by 115 percentage points. Washington reported that import duties on Beijing still have the 20% fentanyl levy, but assured that there have been “constructive discussions” to resolve it. However, Beijing reported in a statement during European trading hours that the fentanyl issue is a matter of the US and not their responsibility. The Chinese Foreign Ministry added that the 20% tariffs imposed on China due to the matter is "unreasonable".The strong upside move in the US Dollar and the rally in US equities after the temporary trade truce between the world’s largest powerhouses reflect that the confidence of investors towards the US economy has increased. However, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have not ruled out the fears of an increase in consumer inflation expectations.On Monday, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler stated that tariffs are still steep and will result in an increase in inflationary pressures and an economic slowdown. “[I] still expect an increase in prices and slowdown in the economy, though not at the same rate as before,” Kugler said, downplaying the chances of reducing interest rates. Kugler also said that the 90-day pause on import levies at levels that threatened to shut down bilateral trade reduces chances that the US central bank will need to lower interest rates in response to an economic slowdown, Reuters reported.Going forward, the next trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. US headline and core CPI are estimated to have grown steadily by 2.4% and 2.8% on year, respectively. Month-on-month, both figures are expected to have risen by 0.3%.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling looks set for more downside on H&S breakdownThe Pound Sterling ticks higher to near 1.3200 against the US Dollar on Tuesday. However, the outlook of the pair has turned bearish after breaking down from a Head and Shoulder (H&S) formation on the four-hour timeframe. A breakdown of the H&S chart pattern leads to a bearish reversal, and its formation near a critical resistance level increases its credibility.The Cable slides near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.3190, suggesting a bearish trend.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds above 40.00 after sliding to near 33.00, indicating that the downside momentum has been defused. However, the bearish bias still prevails.On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3445 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the psychological level of 1.3000 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
13:13 Gold price under pressure after announcement of tariff suspension – Commerzbank
The price of Gold fell by up to 3.5%, or more than $100, to just over $3,200 per troy ounce following the news of the temporary lifting of most of the reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
The price of Gold fell by up to 3.5%, or more than $100, to just over $3,200 per troy ounce following the news of the temporary lifting of most of the reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. USD weighs on the Gold price"This is because the suspension of tariffs for 90 days increased risk appetite on the markets, which is likely to have a negative impact on demand for Gold as a safe haven. The strong demand for safe assets has been the main reason for the sharp rise in the price of Gold since the beginning of the year." "In addition, the announced tariff pause reduces the risk of recession and thus the probability that the US Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates significantly. Accordingly, market participants have considerably scaled back their expectations of interest rate cuts. According to Fed Funds Futures, interest rate cuts of just over 50 basis points are now only priced in until the end of the year." "The resulting rise in bond yields and the US dollar also weighed on the Gold price. Whether the price decline will last longer this time depends largely on whether the lower price level prompts market participants to exit the market or whether they see it as a buying opportunity, as was the case with the previous declines."
13:08 USD/JPY holds gains as BOJ stays cautious on rate path – BBH
USD/JPY consolidates near recent highs as the BoJ’s cautious tone and low market-implied hike expectations contrast with ongoing dollar strength, BBH FX analysts report.
USD/JPY consolidates near recent highs as the BoJ’s cautious tone and low market-implied hike expectations contrast with ongoing dollar strength, BBH FX analysts report. BOJ signals high uncertaint"USD/JPY is consolidating yesterday’s gains. Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions from the April 30 and May 1 meeting offered more color behind the bank’s softer hawkish guidance." "One member noted that uncertainties are 'extremely high,' while another member stressed 'the need for the Bank to wait and see until developments in U.S. tariff policy have become somewhat settled.' The swaps market implies just one 25bps BOJ hike to 0.75% over the next two years."
13:04 NZD/USD is on the downside – UOB Group
The risk for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is on the downside vs US Dollar (USD), but any decline is likely part of a lower range of 0.5835/0.5900.
The risk for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is on the downside vs US Dollar (USD), but any decline is likely part of a lower range of 0.5835/0.5900. In the longer run, the chance for NZD reaching 0.5835 has increased; the next level to watch is 0.5800, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Chance for NZD reaching 0.5835 has increased24-HOUR VIEW: "Despite dropping sharply to 0.5847 yesterday, downward momentum has not increased significantly. However, the risk for NZD is on the downside, but any further decline is likely part of a lower range of 0.5835/0.5900. In other words, NZD is unlikely to break clearly below 0.5835." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "The following are the excerpts from our update last Friday (009 May, spot at 0.5900): 'There has been a slight increase in momentum, indicating the bias for NZD is tilted to the downside toward 0.5870, potentially reaching 0.5835. The downward bias will remain intact provided that the ‘strong resistance’ level, currently at 0.5960, is not breached.' Yesterday, Monday, NZD fell to 0.5847. Although downward momentum has not increased much further, the chance of NZD reaching 0.5835 has increased. The next level to watch is 0.5800. On the upside, a breach of 0.5940 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 0.5960) would mean that NZD is not declining further."
13:00 United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 95.8, above expectations (94.5) in April
United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 95.8, above expectations (94.5) in April
12:59 Oil prices benefit from easing of trade conflict – Commerzbank
The surprising announcement of a significant reduction in reciprocal tariffs between the US and China led to a sharp rise in oil prices yesterday. Brent rose by up to 4% to more than $66 per barrel, WTI to $63.6 per barrel, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
The surprising announcement of a significant reduction in reciprocal tariffs between the US and China led to a sharp rise in oil prices yesterday. Brent rose by up to 4% to more than $66 per barrel, WTI to $63.6 per barrel, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. US-China trade talks benefit oil prices"Prices had already risen noticeably on Friday in optimistic anticipation of the trade talks that took place last weekend. The agreed tariff reduction will initially apply for 90 days. From tomorrow, the US will levy a tariff of 30% on imports from China, while China will levy a tariff of 10% on imports from the US. The additional 10% tariff on US crude oil, which China imposed in February in response to previous US tariffs, is likely to remain in place.""The risk to oil demand has decreased as a result of the de-escalation of the trade conflict. However, it is crucial that a longer-term solution to the trade conflict between the two most important oil-consuming countries is found in the next three months. It is conceivable that increased crude oil imports by China from the US will be part of an agreement. The price increase has also caused the backwardation at the front end of the Brent futures curve to become somewhat stronger again." "The price difference between the first two forward contracts widened to 50 US cents at times. In addition, the first six contracts are falling, i.e. are in backwardation. Last week, only the first four contracts were backwardated. The fact that OPEC+ is significantly expanding its supply has been pushed to the side. However, this fact is likely to have contributed to oil prices giving up most of yesterday's gains after the initial euphoria subsided, with Brent trading at $65 again."
12:52 AUD/USD: Major support at 0.6330 is unlikely to come under threat – UOB Group
Slight increase in momentum suggests Australia Dollar (AUD) could test 0.6350 against US Dollar (YSD); the major support at 0.6330 is unlikely to come under threat.
Slight increase in momentum suggests Australia Dollar (AUD) could test 0.6350 against US Dollar (YSD); the major support at 0.6330 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, AUD must break and hold below 0.6370 before a move to 0.6330 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD must break below 0.6370 to move towards 0.633024-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, AUD traded between 0.6358 and 0.6461, closing on a soft note at 0.6372. There has been a slight increase in downward momentum. Today, we expect AUD to test the support at 0.6350. The major support at 0.6330 is unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 0.6400, followed by 0.6420." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We noted a slight increase in downward momentum last Friday (09 May), when AUD was at 0.6400. We indicated that 'the increase in momentum is not enough to suggests a sustained decline just yet, and AUD must break and hold below 0.6370 before a move to 0.6330 can be expected.' Yesterday, Monday, AUD fell to 0.6358 but closed above 0.6370 at 0.6372, down by 0.62%. The increase in momentum is still not enough to suggest a sustained decline. In other words, our view remains unchanged. Overall, only a breach of 0.6460 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the likelihood of AUD breaking clearly below 0.6370 has faded. Note that AUD popped briefly to a high of 0.6461 in the Asian session yesterday."
12:47 CNY: Still facing the threat of deflation – Commerzbank
The latest inflation figures were published in China over the weekend, reporting on price developments in April. Consumer prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month, but the annual price change remained negative for the third consecutive month at -0.1%.
The latest inflation figures were published in China over the weekend, reporting on price developments in April. Consumer prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month, but the annual price change remained negative for the third consecutive month at -0.1%. Meanwhile, producer prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year. Producer prices have now been in negative territory for 31 consecutive months, and there are currently few signs that this will change soon, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. USD/CNY is back below 7.20 for now"Notably, the price trend in the two subcategories of mining and raw materials, which typically lead the overall PPI, has recently shown an intensifying negative trend. This suggests that producer prices are likely to remain negative in the coming months. However, indications in the producer price subcategories also suggest that consumer price trends will remain low.""Yesterday's agreement between the US and China to dramatically reduce mutual tariffs for an initial period of 90 days should have a positive impact on price developments (see above). However, China's move towards deflation has been ongoing for much longer and is likely to be only marginally affected by this improvement.""Inflation therefore remains low and close to deflation. Further interest rate cuts by the central bank are perhaps not to be expected in the short term. Structurally, however, the direction is likely to be clear. Even though the CNY has enjoyed political tailwinds for a few days and USD/CNY is back below 7.20 for now, the CNY is more likely to weaken in the medium term."
12:43 GBP: Holding onto gains – ING
Today's UK labour market data has had no discernible impact on Pound Sterling (GBP), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Today's UK labour market data has had no discernible impact on Pound Sterling (GBP), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.GBP to stay bid ahead of the UK-EU summit on 19 May"Private sector pay growth is starting to slow, but last month's large fall in payrolled employees has been revised up (to -47k from -78k). Far more interesting for the Bank of England will be next week's April CPI services release.""Before all that, however, we have the UK-EU summit on 19 May. Expect sterling to stay bid ahead of that – potentially even seeing EUR/GBP break below 0.84."
12:40 GBP/USD: Major support at 1.3070 may not come into view so soon – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) could retest the 1.3140 level vs the US Dollar (USD) before a more sustained recovery can be expected. In the longer run, GBP is expected to weaken, but the major support at 1.3070 may not come into view so soon, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Pound Sterling (GBP) could retest the 1.3140 level vs the US Dollar (USD) before a more sustained recovery can be expected. In the longer run, GBP is expected to weaken, but the major support at 1.3070 may not come into view so soon, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. GBP is expected to weaken24-HOUR VIEW: "After plunging to a low of 1.3140 in the early London session yesterday, GBP recovered and traded sideways before closing at 1.3177, down by 1.07% for the day. Downward momentum has slowed, albeit tentatively. However, provided that 1.3235 (minor resistance is at 1.3200) is not breached, GBP could retest the 1.3140 level before a more sustained recovery can be expected. A break below 1.3140 is not ruled out, but currently, GBP does not seem to have enough momentum to reach the major support at 1.3070." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from last Friday (09 May, spot at 1.3240), we indicated that 'while there has been no significant increase in downward momentum, there is scope for GBP to weaken to 1.3150.' We added, 'Currently, it is unclear whether GBP can break clearly below this level.' Yesterday, Monday, GBP fell below 1.3150, reaching a low of 1.3140. Downward momentum has increased, though not significantly. We continue to expect a lower GBP, but the major support at 1.3070 may not come into view so soon. To sustain the momentum, GBP must remain below the ‘strong resistance’ level at 1.3275 (level previously at 1.3330)."
12:36 JPY: A sound investment – Commerzbank
Japan's current account surplus remained solid in March. At JPY 3.7 trillion, this was slightly lower than in February. However, when calculated over the last twelve months, a new all-time high of JPY 30.4 trillion was reached, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.
Japan's current account surplus remained solid in March. At JPY 3.7 trillion, this was slightly lower than in February. However, when calculated over the last twelve months, a new all-time high of JPY 30.4 trillion was reached, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Safe havens such as the JPY are not in demand"Once again, the current account surplus was not driven by foreign trade. Although a small surplus was generated in the goods and services sector, primary income accounted for the lion's share at JPY 3.9 trillion, contributing over 100% to the current account balance (secondary income, on the other hand, was negative). Income from direct investment appears to have risen particularly strongly due to the dividend season.""Overall, the trends of the last two to three years are continuing. Although the foreign trade balance has improved slightly, it remains clearly negative on a twelve-month basis. Therefore, the current account surplus continues to be driven by capital income from foreign investments. As a significant proportion of these foreign assets are likely to be invested in US dollars, Japan's current account balance - and consequently the Japanese yen - is subject to a considerable degree of dependence on the performance of the US economy.""In this sense, yesterday was probably a good day for the JPY in the long term, as the tariff pause will certainly prevent damage to the US economy. However, yesterday's market movements show that safe havens such as the JPY are not in demand when capital markets are performing well. Consequently, USD/JPY rose above 148 at one point."
12:34 USD: April CPI print should keep the dollar supported – ING
FX markets are settling down after a lively Monday. It made sense for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc to sell off the hardest as Washington policy was re-appraised.
FX markets are settling down after a lively Monday. It made sense for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc to sell off the hardest as Washington policy was re-appraised. Here, the 90-day truce is very much a tick in the box of 'pragmatic' policy as opposed to ideological views that imports (especially from China) were inherently a policy failure, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.DXY may be on its way to the 102.60 area"That said, today's April core CPI data is still expected at a sticky 0.3% month-on-month and should feed into the narrative that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates. In fact, this month the terminal rate for the Fed's easing cycle has been repriced to 3.50% from 3.00%. Today, we'll also see April's US small business NFIB optimism index. Another drop in confidence is expected here, but this may not be a market mover in light of yesterday's US-China detente.""As to the dollar, the view that Washington seeks to pull back from an act of self-harm has sent equity markets soaring and the US 10-year swap spread (a credit gauge for the US government) has narrowed a little. Very compelling stories for asset re-allocation away from the US and the dollar may have to be paused temporarily – at least until we see how much this uncertainty has hit the hard data.""DXY broke through strong resistance at 100.80 yesterday (now support) and may well be on its way to the 102.60 area. However, we see this is a bear market correction rather than the start of a major dollar rally, and suspect that both the public and private sectors will want to cut their share in US allocations/raise dollar hedge ratios into any 2-3% dollar rally from current levels."
12:32 BoE’s Pill: Should not assume MPR forecast is a direct endorsement of market interest rate curve
Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said at an event in the London School of Economics (LSE) on Tuesday that markets “should not assume that the latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR) forecast is a direct endorsement of market interest rate curve.”
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}
Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said at an event in the London School of Economics (LSE) on Tuesday that markets “should not assume that the latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR) forecast is a direct endorsement of market interest rate curve.”Further commentsI do worry about upside risks to inflation in upside inflation scenario.I see risk of second round effects.I remain concerned we have seen a structural change in price and wage setting in the UK.Response of monetary policy to ensure we get Consumer Price Index (CPI) back to target may need to be more persistent.Market reactionGBP/USD holds higher ground near 1.3215 following these comments, adding 0.33% on the day. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.22% -0.31% -0.36% 0.09% -0.57% -0.64% -0.57% EUR 0.22% -0.09% -0.13% 0.30% -0.35% -0.40% -0.31% GBP 0.31% 0.09% -0.04% 0.39% -0.26% -0.34% -0.24% JPY 0.36% 0.13% 0.04% 0.45% -0.21% -0.31% -0.17% CAD -0.09% -0.30% -0.39% -0.45% -0.74% -0.73% -0.64% AUD 0.57% 0.35% 0.26% 0.21% 0.74% -0.06% 0.03% NZD 0.64% 0.40% 0.34% 0.31% 0.73% 0.06% 0.08% CHF 0.57% 0.31% 0.24% 0.17% 0.64% -0.03% -0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
12:30 South Africa Unemployment Total climbed from previous 7.991M to 8.228M in 1Q
South Africa Unemployment Total climbed from previous 7.991M to 8.228M in 1Q
12:30 South Africa Unemployment Rate (%) climbed from previous 31.9% to 32.9% in 1Q
South Africa Unemployment Rate (%) climbed from previous 31.9% to 32.9% in 1Q
12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $33.05 per troy ounce, up 1.40% from the $32.60 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have increased by 14.39% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 33.05 1 Gram 1.06
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 98.46 on Tuesday, down from 99.29 on Monday.
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver?
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices?
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:29 GBP/USD pullback deepens after rejection at key resistance zone – Société Générale
GBP/USD is retreating after rejection near 1.3500, with bearish momentum reinforced by MACD crossover and a breach of short-term consolidation support. Next supports lie near 1.3070 and 1.3010, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
GBP/USD is retreating after rejection near 1.3500, with bearish momentum reinforced by MACD crossover and a breach of short-term consolidation support. Next supports lie near 1.3070 and 1.3010, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Focus shifts to 1.3070 and 1.3010 as key support zones"GBP/USD recently faced strong resistance at last year high of 1.3430/1.3500 resulting in a gradual pullback. It has breached the lower limit of recent brief consolidation denoting receding upward momentum." "This is also highlighted by the daily MACD, which has dipped below its trigger line. The pair is likely to continue with the phase of pullback in short-term. Next potential supports are located at the 50-DMA (1.3070) and March high of 1.3010/1.2970."
12:26 US-China Trade: Stepping back from the brink – Standard Chartered
The worst of the US-China trade war is likely behind us, although we see twists and turns ahead. With a substantial reduction in tariffs, we now estimate a GDP impact of 0.6-1.0ppt from US tariffs.
The worst of the US-China trade war is likely behind us, although we see twists and turns ahead. With a substantial reduction in tariffs, we now estimate a GDP impact of 0.6-1.0ppt from US tariffs. China may withhold additional fiscal stimulus unless bilateral trade tensions re-escalate, Standard Chartered's economists note. A contingency plan is meant for contingencies"The US and China have agreed on tariff reductions to de-escalate trade tensions. The US will lower its levies from 145% to 30% and China will reduce its duties from 125% to 10%, effective from 14 May. Both sides will suspend the 24% additional tariffs for 90 days. In addition, mechanisms will be set up for further negotiations. The outcome of the initial trade talks is better than market expectations, although if the trade war under Trump’s first term offers any guidance, we see this agreement as the beginning of a potentially lengthy and bumpy journey.""The 30% tariff would trim China’s GDP growth by c.0.6ppt in the next 12 months, according to our estimate. If the 24% tariff is added back after the 90-day pause, the GDP impact would rise to c.1.0ppt. We estimate that full implementation of the fiscal package approved in March would mostly offset the tariff impact. If bilateral negotiations take a turn for the worse, we expect the government to roll out additional fiscal stimulus, as guided by the Politburo meeting in April. We therefore maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4.8%, and see moderate downside risks.""Following the PBoC’s recent easing measures, which were broadly in line with our expectations, we maintain our forecast of another 10bps policy rate cut in Q4. We expect no RRR cuts for the rest of the year unless additional fiscal stimulus is introduced. We lower our 2025 CPI inflation forecast to -0.1% from 0.7% to reflect the deflationary impact of the global tariff war on China and economies other than the US."
12:23 USD: Just a guy, trying to change the world – Commerzbank
It looks like a stroke of genius. Nobody thought it was possible, but the Donald Trump administration has made it. In just one weekend of negotiations, tariffs between the US and China were reduced by 115 percentage points each.
It looks like a stroke of genius. Nobody thought it was possible, but the Donald Trump administration has made it. In just one weekend of negotiations, tariffs between the US and China were reduced by 115 percentage points each. Together, Chinese exports to the US and US exports to China accounted for around three per cent of all global exports in 2023. Overall, yesterday's announcement means that the global effective tariff rate has fallen by almost 3.5 percentage points. Such a large reduction has not been seen since the Uruguay Round in the mid-1990s, although the data on this is somewhat unclear, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Damage to the USD might be difficult to repair completely"The reduction is initially only valid for 90 days. While it is unlikely that the US government will raise the tariff back to 145%, it already has been said that it is also unrealistic to believe that tariffs could fall to 10% for Chinese goods. 30% should be seen as the lower limit. The tariff rate of 34%, announced on Liberation Day, therefore seems quite realistic. Of course, it remains unclear whether this will be added to existing tariffs or refer to the total value. Many of the details are still unclear. Therefore, one could say that uncertainty remains high and is likely to continue to be elevated in the coming months. And one would probably be right.""So, was it a stroke of genius? At least the stock markets seem to think so. After all, the S&P 500 was around three per cent higher yesterday than at the start of April and is close to its all-time high. However, a different picture emerges when you look at the bond market and the US dollar. Ten-year US Treasuries are still yielding around 28 basis points more than at the start of April, and the trade-weighted US dollar has weakened by 2.5%.""Perhaps, then, we should reconsider the objections and questions. To me, at least, it is unclear why the outlook for the US economy should be better today than before Liberation Day. Even though, of course, it is better today than it was last week. Nevertheless, the damage to the US dollar since then will probably be difficult to repair completely. Nothing has been gained so far. Hence, it looks more like a wild goose chase."
12:18 EUR/JPY holds losses below 164.50 after release of ZEW Economic Sentiment Surveys
EUR/JPY loses ground after registering more than 0.50% gains in the previous session, trading around 164.20 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross remains subdued following the release of ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys from Germany and the Eurozone.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY retreats after reaching a six-month high of 164.92 on Monday.The German ZEW Economic Sentiment index surged to 25.2 in May, rebounding sharply from -14 in April.The Japanese Yen strengthened despite ongoing uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s interest rate trajectory.EUR/JPY loses ground after registering more than 0.50% gains in the previous session, trading around 164.20 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross remains subdued following the release of ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys from Germany and the Eurozone.The German ZEW Economic Sentiment index jumped to 25.2 in May, a sharp rebound from -14 in April and well above the market forecast of 11.9. Similarly, the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment index rose to 11.6, up from -18.5 in the previous month.Reuters reported that several European Central Bank (ECB) officials expect the ongoing policy review to reaffirm existing strategies, including quantitative easing (QE), despite some internal dissent. Policymakers also indicated that the ECB will continue to use language referencing "forceful action" during periods of low interest rates and inflation.The EUR/JPY cross weakened as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained ground, even amid continued uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate path. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida acknowledged both upside and downside risks stemming from potential US tariffs, warning that such trade measures could weigh on Japan’s economy. He noted that Japan’s growth is projected to slow toward its potential rate before gradually rebounding, assuming global economic conditions improve.Uchida also highlighted rising wages amid a tight labor market, suggesting that businesses are likely to continue passing higher labor costs onto consumers. This, he said, may help sustain underlying inflation and boost inflation expectations over time.The BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its April 30–May 1 policy meeting underscored ongoing uncertainty as a key concern. One board member indicated that further rate hikes are likely if economic and inflation trends improve, while another warned that US trade policy, particularly higher tariffs, could pose a significant threat to Japan’s economic outlook and inflation trajectory. Economic Indicator ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Tue May 13, 2025 09:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 25.2 Consensus: 11.9 Previous: -14 Source: ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research
12:02 German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rebounds to 25.2 in May vs. 11.9 expected
The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rebounded to 25.2 in May from -14 in April, beatimh the market consensus of 11.9 by a wide margin.
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index bounced back to 25.2 in May.EUR/USD consolidates recovery gains above 1.1100 after German and Eurozone ZEW surveys.The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rebounded to 25.2 in May from -14 in April, beatimh the market consensus of 11.9 by a wide margin.The Current Situation Index eased slightly to -82 in the same period, as against the April reading of -81.2. Data beat the estimated -77 reading.
12:02 Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above expectations (-3.5) in May: Actual (11.6)
Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above expectations (-3.5) in May: Actual (11.6)
12:01 Gold price recovers as US-China trade agreement euphoria fades quickly
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds and trades near $3,260 at the time of writing on Tuesday, recovering from the 2.65% drop the previous day after the US-China trade deal was announced.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price jumps nearly 1% on Tuesday as the US-China trade deal euphoria quickly fades. Traders become wary as no further details are provided on the content of the current deal. Traders are picking up some safe haven protection at current discounted prices. Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds and trades near $3,260 at the time of writing on Tuesday, recovering from the 2.65% drop the previous day after the US-China trade deal was announced. Traders are starting to get wary about the lack of detail in the announcement, and another flare-up could propel bullion back toward the record high set last month. Thus, the current move in the precious metal price might be a good time to buy the dip. “The devil is in the details during negotiations,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist from Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “Some degree of caution remains warranted, as we see consolidation in the range of $3,150 to $3,350 an ounce.”, Bloomberg reports. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President of Chicago Austan Goolsbee warned that even current tariff levels will still have an inflationary impulse, the New York Times reports, while Deutsche Bank issued a report saying that the easing of China trade will not fuel a quick Fed interest rate cut. Daily digest market movers: Alaskan Gold Mine faces tariff riskFor the Perth-based mining company Northern Star, getting the equipment and materials needed to run a Gold mine in a remote part of Alaska was already costly. US President Donald Trump's trade war isn't helping, and sees its Pogo mine venture flirting with becoming break-even or even at a loss if tariff relief is not coming soon, Bloomberg reports. On Monday, President Trump said the US has the upper hand in its trade discussions with the European Union. "The European Union is in many ways nastier than China. We've just started with them. We have all the cards. They treated us very unfairly," Trump said at the White House.A big drop in US-China trade barriers lessens the prospects of a serious inflationary supply crunch. Even so, inflation remains stubborn enough that the Fed probably still won't be in a rush to cut interest rates, economists at Deutsche Bank write. Despite the trade war's easing, "policies are likely to keep inflation at uncomfortably high levels for the Fed," Deutsche's team suggests. "This announcement therefore reinforces our view that the Fed is going to be slow to cut rates this year." Deutsche's baseline assumption is that the Fed's next rate cut won't come before December, Deutsche Bank reports in a Monday brief. Gold and US interest rates have an inverse relationship where lower rates often support a higher Gold price and vice versa. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Not all eggs in one basket“Close but no cigar”, it seems for President Trump again. Several traders and analysts are wary of the conceived trade deal with China, which is only a 90-day relief. Besides reducing tariffs for 90 days, there are no fundamental elements for markets to cling to, such as forward dates for negotiations, topics, additional numbers, or anything material to see a continuation of momentum. It makes sense for experienced traders to remain cautious and buy securities such as Gold after Monday’s correction. The daily Pivot Point at $3,248 roughly coincides with that technical pivotal level at $3,245, the April 11 high, identified in previous weeks. From here on out, it would be healthy to see if Gold bulls can push the price back up to $3,289, the R1 resistance for this Tuesday. Further up, $3,341 might be a stretch, though it would mean a test of Friday’s high and the R2 resistance. On the downside, a double bottom is getting formed near $3,195, which coincides with the S1 intraday support. From there, the next pivotal technical level comes into play at $3,167 (April 3 high), just ahead of the S2 support at $3,155. In case those two levels snap under pressure, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) comes into play at $3,121.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation below forecasts (-77) in May: Actual (-82)
Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation below forecasts (-77) in May: Actual (-82)
12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment registered at 25.2 above expectations (11.9) in May
Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment registered at 25.2 above expectations (11.9) in May
11:54 Spain 9-Month Letras Auction rose from previous 1.919% to 2%
Spain 9-Month Letras Auction rose from previous 1.919% to 2%
11:54 Spain 3-Month Letras Auction fell from previous 2.1% to 1.976%
Spain 3-Month Letras Auction fell from previous 2.1% to 1.976%
11:54 Tariff pause provides short term relief – ING
Sentiment across risk assets improved with the pause in US-China tariffs, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Sentiment across risk assets improved with the pause in US-China tariffs, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Supply side should to keep downward pressure on the market"The move to reduce tariffs for 90 days was certainly more aggressive than many expected, highlighted by the big upward moves in risk assets, including oil. However, while a thawing in trade tensions between China and the US is helpful, there’s still plenty of uncertainty over what happens in 90 days. This uncertainty could continue to generate headwinds for oil demand.""Though demand has been a key concern for the oil market, supply increases from OPEC+ mean that the oil market will be well supplied through the remainder of the year. How well supplied depends on whether OPEC+ sticks with the aggressive supply hikes we saw for May and June." "Interestingly, despite the strength in the ICE Brent flat price yesterday, the prompt time spread weakened. Also, the forward curve suggests the market may become increasingly more comfortable with supply towards year-end. For now, the pause in US-China trade tensions has not caused us to revise our price forecasts. The supply side should keep downward pressure on the market."
11:50 EUR/USD: Unlikely to break the major support at 1.1055 – UOB Group
Scope for Euro (EUR) to weaken further against the US Dollar (USD); any decline is unlikely to break the major support at 1.1055.
Scope for Euro (EUR) to weaken further against the US Dollar (USD); any decline is unlikely to break the major support at 1.1055. In the longer run, EUR remains under pressure, but it remains to be seen if the current corrective pullback can reach 1.0945, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR remains under pressure24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR plunged and closed at a 1-1/2-month low of 1.1087 yesterday, down by a whopping 1.42%. Not surprisingly, the sharp and swift selloff is deeply oversold. However, with no signs of stabilisation just yet, there is scope for USD to weaken further. That said, given the oversold conditions, any decline is unlikely to break the major support at 1.1055. Resistance is at 1.1120; a breach of 1.1150 would suggest the weakness in EUR has stabilised." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday, 09 May, when EUR was at 1.1220, we revised our view from neutral to negative, highlighting that 'the buildup in momentum indicates further decline in EUR toward 1.1145.' The pace of the anticipated decline exceeded our expectations, as EUR plunged and reached a low of 1.1064 yesterday. While downward momentum has increased and EUR remains under pressure, we view the current weakness as part of a corrective pullback (see 1-3 months view below), and it remains to be seen if the next major support at 1.0945 will come into view. Overall, only a breach of 1.1225 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.1315) would suggest that the current downward pressure has eased."
11:47 EUR: Cheaper levels – ING
At some points over the last six weeks, it felt like there was no point trying to pick a top in EUR/USD as overwhelming bearish sentiment on the dollar dominated.
At some points over the last six weeks, it felt like there was no point trying to pick a top in EUR/USD as overwhelming bearish sentiment on the dollar dominated. But that EUR/USD move to 1.15/16 did mark an extreme 5/6% over-valuation on our short-term financial fair value models and served as a reminder that there are some limits after all, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Current corrective dip can find good buyers in the 1.1030/50 "For now, it looks as though EUR/USD has completed a first leg in a sequence of what could be a multi-year bull trend. We imagine this current corrective dip will find good buyers in the 1.1030/50 area, with outside risk to 1.0850. But this week's decline makes us feel more comfortable about our year-end target of 1.13, which otherwise had looked too conservative. We have a slight EUR/USD bias to 1.1030/50 today.""Some potential challenges to the dollar later this week could be Thursday's US retail sales data for April and Friday's TIC data for March – the latter showing whether foreign investors (including central banks) have been leaving US asset markets. EUR/USD will also be interested in whether all three leaders of the US, Russia and Ukraine make it to Istanbul this Thursday."
11:34 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Approaches the 0.5900 resistance level near nine-day EMA
The NZD/USD pair retraces its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.5890 during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a neutral outlook, with the pair consolidating within a rectangular range.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD faces immediate resistance near the nine-day EMA at 0.5912.The 14-day RSI sits at the 50 level, indicating a neutral bias.The pair may retest initial support at the rectangle’s lower boundary around 0.5850.The NZD/USD pair retraces its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.5890 during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a neutral outlook, with the pair consolidating within a rectangular range.Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned on the 50 mark, suggesting a neutral bias. A clearer directional trend may emerge with further price movement. However, the NZD/USD pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling weak short-term momentum.The immediate barrier appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.5912. A break above this level could reinforce the short-term price momentum and support the NZD/USD pair to approach the rectangle’s upper boundary at 0.6020, followed by the six-month high of 0.6038, last seen in November 2024. Further resistance seems at the seven-month high near 0.6350, recorded in October 2024.On the downside, the NZD/USD pair may retest the initial support at the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.5850, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.5836. A break below this crucial support zone could weaken the medium-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair to test support at 0.5485, a level not visited since March 2020.NZD/USD: Daily Chart New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.15% -0.22% -0.34% 0.10% -0.47% -0.53% -0.60% EUR 0.15% -0.07% -0.15% 0.25% -0.31% -0.36% -0.41% GBP 0.22% 0.07% -0.10% 0.31% -0.22% -0.32% -0.34% JPY 0.34% 0.15% 0.10% 0.45% -0.13% -0.22% -0.21% CAD -0.10% -0.25% -0.31% -0.45% -0.65% -0.63% -0.68% AUD 0.47% 0.31% 0.22% 0.13% 0.65% -0.05% -0.10% NZD 0.53% 0.36% 0.32% 0.22% 0.63% 0.05% -0.05% CHF 0.60% 0.41% 0.34% 0.21% 0.68% 0.10% 0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
11:14 ECB’s Makhlouf: Uncertainty is weighing on investment
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf said on Tuesday that “uncertainty is weighing on investment; soft data pointing to a significant cooling in business and consumer sentiment.”
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf said on Tuesday that “uncertainty is weighing on investment; soft data pointing to a significant cooling in business and consumer sentiment.”Additional quotesGlobal economic integration is now stalled, if not reversing; last few weeks have seen an acceleration in pace and scale of change.Even if a full-blown trade-war turns out to be short-lived, uncertainty effects will persist for some time.Monetary policy must adapt to the new nature of supply shocks generated by geoeconomic fragmentation.Given effects of size, scale and more persistent nature of fragmentation-induced shocks, and their impact on prices, monetary policy responses will need careful calibration.Threats of inflation de-anchoring, from both above and below, warrant forceful and persistent responses.Interest rate remains default policy lever in our toolbox; when constrained by lower bound, other tools such as targeted lending and balance sheet operations have their uses.Market reaction
11:00 USD/CAD steadies above 1.3950 due to trade optimism, expects a rise in US inflation
USD/CAD is aiming for its fifth straight daily gain, hovering near 1.3970 during Tuesday’s European session.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD remains steady ahead of the closely watched US Consumer Price Index release for April, scheduled for Tuesday.Headline CPI is expected to rise to 0.3% MoM, recovering from the previous -0.1%.The commodity-linked Canadian Dollar may find some support as crude Oil prices continue to climb.USD/CAD is aiming for its fifth straight daily gain, hovering near 1.3970 during Tuesday’s European session. However, the pair faced some resistance as the US Dollar (USD) softened ahead of the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April, due later in the North American session.Market expectations suggest a rebound in headline CPI to 0.3% month-over-month from -0.1%, while core CPI is also forecast to increase to 0.3% from 0.1%. Year-over-year readings for both are projected to remain unchanged.Despite the USD’s slight retreat, the USD/CAD pair found support from encouraging developments in US-China trade talks. Over the weekend, both countries reached a preliminary agreement in Switzerland aimed at significantly reducing tariffs—an effort seen as a step toward easing trade tensions. Under the deal, the US will lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will cut tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. This breakthrough has lifted market sentiment and is viewed as a positive sign for global trade stability.On the other hand, rising Crude Oil prices could lend support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD), potentially limiting further gains in the USD/CAD pair. As Canada is the largest Oil exporter to the US, higher Oil prices generally strengthen the CAD.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is extending its winning streak to a fourth straight session, trading near $61.70 per barrel. The rally follows renewed optimism from the US-China tariff deal, reinforcing hopes for improved global trade dynamics. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (MoM) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue May 13, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 0.3% Previous: -0.1% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
10:52 EUR/USD trades with caution as US-China trade truce lifts US Dollar’s demand
EUR/USD trades cautiously near a month low around 1.1100 during European trading hours on Tuesday.
EUR/USD edges higher to near 1.1100 while a temporary US-China trade truce and the absence of EU-US trade talks keep the pair on the backfoot.Fed Goolsbee still warns of a US economic slowdown and high inflation.US CPI is expected to have grown steadily year-on-year.EUR/USD trades cautiously near a month low around 1.1100 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The major currency pair struggles to gain ground as the outlook of the US Dollar (USD) has strengthened after the United States (US) and China agreed to avert an escalation in the trade war and reduce tariffs substantially on Monday.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, clings to the previous day’s gains around 101.60.On Monday, Washington and Beijing lowered tariffs by 115% for 90 days after a two-day meeting in Geneva over the weekend, resulting in a decline in the additional levy to 10% on the US and 30% on China. The burden of the fentanyl levy of 20% on China remained intact, while Washington has assured that there have been “constructive discussions” to resolve it. The announcement of a temporary truce resulted in a sharp upside in the US Dollar and a rally in US equity indices, which signals that investors have regained confidence in the US economic outlook. The imposition of significantly higher reciprocal tariffs by the US on China led to a substantial decline in the US Dollar and demand for US assets. Market experts and Federal Reserve (Fed) officials painted a grim picture of the US economy in the wake of the US-China trade war.After the temporary US-China trade truce, Fed officials have become less fearful over the economic outlook. On Monday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that the impact of the US-China tariff war will be lower than they had anticipated earlier. "It is definitely less impactful stagflationarily than the path they were on,” Goolsbee said, Reuters reported. However, he warned that fears of high inflation and economic slowdown are still intact. “Tariffs are still three to five times higher than what they were before, so it is going to have a stagflationary impulse on the economy. It’s going to make growth slower and make prices rise," Goolsbee said.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD edges up but outlook remains bearishEUR/USD ticks higher above 1.1100 on Tuesday as the US Dollar takes a breather after a strong rally on Monday. However, the outlook of the pair is becoming weak as the European Union (EU) and Canada seem to be the only major economies that have not reported any meaningful progress in trade discussions with the US since President Donald Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs.Additionally, the EU has prepared countermeasures if trade talks with the US don’t conclude positively, a move that could lead to trade tensions. On Thursday, the European Commission launched a public consultation paper that contained countermeasures on up to €95 billion of US imports if trade talks fail to deliver a satisfactory result for the bloc. Another factor behind the gloomy outlook of the pair is the solid European Central Bank (ECB) dovish bets. Traders have become increasingly confident that the ECB will cut interest rates again in the June meeting as officials have signaled that the disinflation trend is intact and price pressures will return to the 2% target by the year-end.On the economic front, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April will influence the EUR/USD pair, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The CPI report is expected to show that inflationary pressures remain stable year-on-year. The headline and core CPI are estimated to have grown at a steady pace of 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD strives to gain ground near 1.1100EUR/USD gains temporary ground below 1.1100 on Tuesday after a sharp sell-off the previous day. The pair plunged on Monday after a breakdown of the 1.1200-1.1440 range formed in the prior 20 trading days. The major currency pair extends its downside move below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.1200, indicating a bearish trend.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 40.00, suggesting that a fresh bearish momentum has been triggered.Looking up, the April 28 high of 1.1425 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the March 27 low of 1.0733 will be a key support for the Euro bulls.
10:30 Forex Today: US Dollar consolidates gains ahead of key inflation data
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, May 13:
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}
.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, May 13:The US Dollar (USD) retreats slightly in the European morning on Tuesday after posting impressive gains against its rivals to start the week. The European economic calendar will feature ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment data for Germany and the Eurozone. In the second half of the day, April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US will be watched closely. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.19% 0.76% 1.09% 0.55% 0.00% 0.50% 0.88% EUR -1.19% -0.30% 0.44% -0.15% -0.56% -0.21% 0.16% GBP -0.76% 0.30% 0.92% 0.16% -0.24% 0.02% 0.47% JPY -1.09% -0.44% -0.92% -0.54% -1.69% -1.44% -0.45% CAD -0.55% 0.15% -0.16% 0.54% -0.28% -0.06% 0.31% AUD -0.01% 0.56% 0.24% 1.69% 0.28% 0.25% 0.69% NZD -0.50% 0.21% -0.02% 1.44% 0.06% -0.25% 0.34% CHF -0.88% -0.16% -0.47% 0.45% -0.31% -0.69% -0.34% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USD Index gathered bullish momentum and climbed to its highest level in a month near 102.00 on Monday as markets cheered the news of the US and China reaching a deal to pause reciprocal tariff rates for 90 days and to significantly lower them. Wall Street's main indexes shot higher after the opening bell and Nasdaq Composite rose 4% on the day. In the European morning on Tuesday, the USD Index stays in a consolidation phase at around 101.50, while US stock index futures lose between 0.2% and 0.35%. Related news US CPI set to show broadly stable inflation in April as trade-related uncertainty persists Fed’s Kugler: Progress on disinflation has slowed Trade talks and inflation data in focus for the week
The improving risk mood made it difficult for Gold to find demand on Monday. XAU/USD remained under heavy bearish pressure throughout the day and fell more than 2.5%. Early Tuesday, the pair stages a rebound and trades above $3,250.EUR/USD turned south in the European session on Monday and ended up losing more than 1% on a daily basis. The pair recovers slightly in the European morning and trades slightly above 1.1100. USD/JPY gained more than 2% on Monday and advanced to its strongest level since early April above 148.60. The pair corrects lower and trades below 148.00 to begin the European session. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Tuesday that there are both upside and downside risks from US tariffs on Japan’s prices.GBP/USD holds steady at around 1.3200 to start the European session on Tuesday. The UK's Office for National Statistics reported earlier in the day that the ILO Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.5% in the three months to March from 4.4% in February, as expected. Other details of the report showed that the Claimant Count Rate remained unchanged at 4.5% in this period, while the wage inflation, as measured by the changed in the Average Earnings Excluding Bonus, declined to 5.6% from 5.9%. After losing more than 0.6% on Monday, AUD/USD gains traction on Tuesday and trades in positive territory above 0.6400. The data from Australia showed earlier in the day that the Westpac Consumer Confidence improved to 2.2% in May from -6% in April. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
10:22 EUR/GBP remains above 0.8400 following UK Jobs data, ZEW Economic Sentiment Surveys eyed
EUR/GBP halts its six-day losing streak, trading around 0.8420 during the early European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds ground following the release of mixed employment data from the United Kingdom (UK).
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP holds steady after the release of mixed employment data from the United Kingdom.The UK ILO Unemployment Rate edged up to 4.5% in the three months to March, slightly above the previous 4.4%.ECB officials signaled that the ongoing policy review is likely to reinforce existing strategies, including quantitative easing (QE).EUR/GBP halts its six-day losing streak, trading around 0.8420 during the early European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds ground following the release of mixed employment data from the United Kingdom (UK). Later in the day, traders will focus on the ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys for May from both Germany and the broader Eurozone, which provide insight into institutional investor confidence.Data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.5% in the three months to March, slightly above the 4.4% reported in the previous quarter and in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, Claimant Count Change rose by 5,200 in April, following a revised drop of 16,900 in March. The figure came in better than the anticipated increase of 22,300. Employment Change showed a gain of 112,000 in March, down from 206,000 in February.Wage growth data was also mixed. Average Earnings, excluding bonuses, rose 5.6% year-over-year in the three months to March, slightly below the previous 5.9% and under the expected 5.7%. Including bonuses, wages increased 5.5%, beating forecasts of 5.2% but lower than the revised 5.7% recorded previously.On the Eurozone front, Reuters reported that several European Central Bank (ECB) officials indicated the ongoing policy review is expected to reaffirm previous strategies, including quantitative easing (QE), despite some internal criticism. Policymakers also signaled the ECB will maintain language referring to "forceful action" during periods of low rates and inflation. Economic Indicator ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. As a result, a rise leads to a weakening of the UK economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue May 13, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 4.5% Consensus: 4.5% Previous: 4.4% Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor market. The figure is highlighted by the broad media, beyond the financial sector, giving the publication a more significant impact despite its late publication. It is released around six weeks after the month ends. While the Bank of England is tasked with maintaining price stability, there is a substantial inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. A higher than expected figure tends to be GBP-bearish. Economic Indicator ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. A positive number means that the share of optimists outweighs the share of pessimists. usually, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish). Read more. Next release: Tue May 13, 2025 09:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: -3.5 Previous: -18.5 Source: ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research
10:07 China’s Foreign Ministry says fentanyl issue is not their responsibility
When asked on Tuesday whether fentanyl would be discussed in trade talks moving forward, China’s Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl issue is a US issue and not their responsibility.
When asked on Tuesday whether fentanyl would be discussed in trade talks moving forward, China’s Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl issue is a US issue and not their responsibility.The Ministry added that the 20% tariffs imposed on China due to the matter is "unreasonable".
10:02 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
ndian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 94.38, with the EUR/INR pair rising from its previous close at 94.11.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
ndian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 94.38, with the EUR/INR pair rising from its previous close at 94.11.Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades at 112.12 against the INR in the early European trading hours, also advancing after the GBP/INR pair settled at 111.97 at the previous close. Indian economy FAQs How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee? The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR. What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee? India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee. How does inflation in India impact the Rupee? Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee. How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee? India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.
10:01 Turkey Current Account Balance below expectations ($-3.95B) in March: Actual ($-4.087B)
Turkey Current Account Balance below expectations ($-3.95B) in March: Actual ($-4.087B)
09:47 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Outlook remains bearish, key support level emerges near 100.00
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, retreats from its highest level since April 10 to 101.60 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Dollar Index softens to 101.6 in Tuesday’s early European session, losing 0.19% on the day.The negative outlook of the index remains in play below the 100-day EMA.Crucial support level to watch is 100.00; the first upside barrier is seen at 103.35. The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, retreats from its highest level since April 10 to 101.60 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Nonetheless, optimism over a tariff deal between the United States (US) and China eases some fears of a trade war between the world's two largest economies, which supports the USD. Technically, the bearish sentiment of the DXY remains intact as the index is below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. However, further consolidation or temporary recovery cannot be ruled out, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the midline, suggesting neutral momentum in the near term. The key support level for the US Dollar Index is located at the 100.00 psychological level. A breach of this level could expose 99.23, the low of May 7. Further south, the next bearish target to watch is 98.02, the low of April 22. On the bright side, the 100-day EMA at 103.35 acts as an immediate resistance level for the DXY. The additional OpSite filter is seen at 104.31, the high of April 2. Extended gains could see a rally to 104.71, the high of March 27. US Dollar Index (DXY) daily chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
09:37 US Treausry Sec. Bessent: Talks in Geneva with China resulted in a mechanism to avoid escalation
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that “talks in Geneva with China resulted in a mechanism to avoid escalation.”
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that “talks in Geneva with China resulted in a mechanism to avoid escalation.”Additional quotesPresident Trump wants to rebalance the US economy.China needs to rebalance towards consumption economy.We do not want a generalised decoupling between the two largest economies in the world.United States will bring medicine, semiconductor and other strategic industries home.Very productive discussions with Japan.Focused on Asia deals, Indonesia has been very forthcoming, Taiwan presented very good proposals.
09:33 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $951.00 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $949.90.
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $951.00 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $949.90.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $988.77 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also up after the XPT/USD pair settled at $982.45 at the previous close.
09:17 UK Unemployment Rate ticks up to 4.5% in the quarter to March, as expected
The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.5% in the three months to March after reporting 4.4% in the quarter to February, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday. The market forecast was for a 4.5% reading in the reported period.
The UK Unemployment Rate rose to 4.5% in three months to March.The Claimant Count Change for Britain came in at 5.2K in April.GBP/USD holds gains near 1.3200 after mixed UK employment data.The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.5% in the three months to March after reporting 4.4% in the quarter to February, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday. The market forecast was for a 4.5% reading in the reported period.
developing story ....
developing story ....
09:06 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate declined to 4.5% in April from previous 4.7%
United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate declined to 4.5% in April from previous 4.7%
09:03 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.53 per barrel, down from Monday’s close at $61.60.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.53 per barrel, down from Monday’s close at $61.60.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $64.66 after its previous daily close at $64.71. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
09:01 United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 5.5%, above forecasts (5.2%) in March
United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 5.5%, above forecasts (5.2%) in March
09:01 United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) registered at 5.6%, below expectations (5.7%) in March
United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) registered at 5.6%, below expectations (5.7%) in March
09:01 United Kingdom Claimant Count Change came in at 5.2K below forecasts (22.3K) in April
United Kingdom Claimant Count Change came in at 5.2K below forecasts (22.3K) in April
09:00 United Kingdom Employment Change (3M) declined to 112K in March from previous 206K
United Kingdom Employment Change (3M) declined to 112K in March from previous 206K
09:00 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) in line with expectations (4.5%) in March
United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) in line with expectations (4.5%) in March
08:39 ECB to stand by past stimulus policies in strategy review – Reuters
Several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers told Reuters on Tuesday that the “ECB review will largely endorse past policies, including quantitative easing (QE), despite some policymakers' criticisms.”
Several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers told Reuters on Tuesday that the “ECB review will largely endorse past policies, including quantitative easing (QE), despite some policymakers' criticisms.”The policymakers further noted that the central bank will “keep reference to 'forceful action' when rates, inflation are low following strategy review.”
08:33 US will cut "de minimis" tariffs on China shipments from 120% to 54%
Citing a White House executive order, Reuters reported on Tuesday that the US will cut "de minimis" tariffs on China shipments from 120% to 54%, with a minimum flat fee of $100 to remain.
Citing a White House executive order, Reuters reported on Tuesday that the US will cut "de minimis" tariffs on China shipments from 120% to 54%, with a minimum flat fee of $100 to remain.Meanwhile, China announced that it has removed a ban on Boeing deliveries after the trade truce with the US.
08:25 USD/CHF drops below 0.8450 as US Dollar struggles ahead of inflation data
USD/CHF retreats after posting more than 2% gains in the previous session, trading around 0.8430 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pullback comes as the US Dollar (USD) softens, possibly due to a technical correction.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF weakens as the US Dollar retreats, likely driven by a technical correction.US headline CPI is expected to recover to 0.3% MoM in April, from -0.1%.Easing trade tensions have dampened the demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc.USD/CHF retreats after posting more than 2% gains in the previous session, trading around 0.8430 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pullback comes as the US Dollar (USD) softens, possibly due to a technical correction.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower near 101.50 at the time of writing. Investors are now turning their focus to the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April, due later on the day. Analysts expect headline CPI to rebound to 0.3% month-over-month from -0.1%, while core CPI is also forecast to rise to 0.3% from 0.1%. Year-over-year figures for both metrics are anticipated to remain unchanged.The earlier surge in the USD/CHF pair was driven by positive developments in US-China trade talks. Over the weekend, the two nations reached a preliminary agreement in Switzerland aimed at significantly reducing tariffs—a move seen as a potential step toward easing trade tensions. Under the agreement, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will cut tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. The deal has boosted market sentiment and is viewed as a step toward stabilizing global trade relations.The easing of trade tensions has encouraged a shift toward riskier assets, weighing on the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF). Moreover, the yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond climbed to near 0.37%, in line with a global rise in borrowing costs as investor risk appetite improved.However, gains in Swiss yields were capped by rising expectations of further monetary easing by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Last week, SNB Chairman Schlegel reiterated the bank’s readiness to intervene in currency markets and cut interest rates—potentially into negative territory—if inflation continues to undershoot its target. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
08:03 GBP/USD jumps to near 1.3200 ahead of UK employment, US CPI releases
The GBP/USD pair climbs to near 1.3195 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher against the Greenback due to positive developments surrounding the US and the UK trade agreement last week.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD gains traction to around 1.3195 in Tuesday’s early European session.Gradual and careful policy-easing approach by the BOE supports the GBP. The UK employment and US CPI inflation reports will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair climbs to near 1.3195 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher against the Greenback due to positive developments surrounding the US and the UK trade agreement last week. The UK employment and US inflation reports will be the highlights later on Tuesday.US President Donald Trump last week said that he will continue to impose a new 10% tariff on imports of most British goods but will reduce higher tariffs on imports of British cars, steel and aluminium. This positive developments surrounding the US-UK trade deal lift the Cable.Furthermore, a gradual and careful policy-easing approach by the BOE contributes to the GBP’s upside. The UK central bank cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point in a divided decision last week and suggested that the growth risks posed by Trump’s global trade war haven’t derailed its plan to ease policy only cautiously. The BoE estimated the UK economy to grow at a faster pace of 1%, up from 0.75% projected in the February meeting.Traders await the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, due later on Tuesday. This report might offer more clues whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume the monetary policy easing cycle in the next meeting. In case of a hotter-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback against the GBP in the near term. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
07:36 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,839.07 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 8,830.46 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 103,099.20 per tola from INR 102,996.80 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,839.07 10 Grams 88,391.52 Tola 103,099.20 Troy Ounce 274,926.00
2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast
Daily digest market movers: Gold prices pressured by high US Treasury yields
US Treasury bond yields are rising, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield surging seven basis points to 4.453%. Meanwhile, US real yields are also steady at 2.163%, as indicated by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields.
US CPI in April is expected to remain unchanged at 2.4% YoY, according to economists. Excluding volatile items, the so-called core CPI is projected to remain unchanged at 2.8% YoY.
The World Gold Council revealed that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added 2 tonnes to its Gold reserves in April – for the sixth consecutive month. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) increased by 12 tonnes in April to 509 tonnes; while the Czech National Bank increased its reserves by 2.5 tonnes in April.
Swap markets have so far priced in the Fed’s first 25 basis points (bps) rate cut for the July meeting, and they expect one additional reduction toward the end of the year. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:29 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $33.00 with developing bullish bias
Silver price (XAG/USD) is extending its gains for the fourth successive session, trading around $33.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a bullish outlook, as the precious metal continues to trade within an ascending channel pattern.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price may aim for a retest of the six-week high of $33.69, last seen on April 24.The 14-day RSI has moved above the 50 level, indicating a strengthening bullish momentum.Initial support is seen at the nine-day EMA of $32.71, with further support at the 50-day EMA of $32.50.Silver price (XAG/USD) is extending its gains for the fourth successive session, trading around $33.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a bullish outlook, as the precious metal continues to trade within an ascending channel pattern.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed above the 50 mark, signaling a developing bullish bias. Furthermore, the Silver price has broken above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reinforcing the strength of its short-term upward momentum.On the upside, the XAG/USD pair may target its six-week high at $33.69, reached on April 24. A break above this level would attract buyers and support the price of the precious metal to approach the seven-month high at $34.59, last seen on March 28.On the downside, the Silver price could test the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of $32.71, followed by the 50-day EMA at $32.50. A break below these levels could weaken the bullish bias and put pressure on the XAG/USD pair to test the eight-month low of $28.00, marked on April 7.XAG/USD: Daily Chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
07:17 FX option expiries for May 13 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 13 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
FX option expiries for May 13 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1145 906m1.1300 1.8b1.1355 815m1.1360 996m1.1370 1.2b1.1375 1.3b1.1420 1.3bGBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3200 930mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 143.00 1.9b146.75 567m151.00 1.2bUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8325 469mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6240 602m0.6545 1.4bUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3875 882m1.3885 578mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5955 496mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8405 686m
06:41 EUR/USD maintains position above 1.1100 ahead of US inflation data
EUR/USD opened with a bullish gap on Tuesday during the Asian session, trading near the 1.1110 level after suffering losses of over 2.5% in the previous session. The pair faced challenges as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened on the back of progress in the United States (US)-China trade negotiations.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD may come under renewed pressure as the US Dollar remains supported by encouraging developments in US-China trade talks.The US and China have reached a preliminary agreement to significantly reduce tariffs, signaling a potential easing of trade tensions.The European Central Bank could prolong its monetary easing cycle in response to declining inflationary pressures.EUR/USD opened with a bullish gap on Tuesday during the Asian session, trading near the 1.1110 level after suffering losses of over 2.5% in the previous session. The pair faced challenges as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened on the back of progress in the United States (US)-China trade negotiations.Over the weekend, the United States and China reached a preliminary agreement in Switzerland aimed at significantly reducing tariffs, signaling a potential de-escalation in trade tensions. Under the deal, the US will lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will cut tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. The development has been well-received by markets as a step toward stabilizing global trade relations.Attention now turns to the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April, due later on Tuesday. Economists expect headline inflation to rebound to 0.3% month-over-month from -0.1% previously, while core CPI is also projected to rise to 0.3% from 0.1%. On a yearly basis, both measures are forecast to remain unchanged.Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) remains under pressure amid growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may extend its monetary easing cycle in response to waning inflation. Several ECB officials have hinted at further rate cuts, citing persistent trade uncertainties and a sustained disinflation trend.However, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel offered a more cautious perspective in a speech at Stanford University on Friday. She argued that current rates are appropriate and should remain in neutral territory. Schnabel also warned of medium-term inflation risks potentially breaching the ECB’s 2% target due to ongoing global economic disruptions. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
06:07 China’s Presi. Xi: Tariff and trade wars produce no winners
Speaking at the opening ceremony of the fourth ministerial meeting of the China-CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) Forum in Beijing on Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that “tariff and trade wars produce no winners.”
.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}
Speaking at the opening ceremony of the fourth ministerial meeting of the China-CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) Forum in Beijing on Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that “tariff and trade wars produce no winners.”Further commentsActs of bullying and domination will ultimately lead to isolation.China backs Latin America and the Caribbean in strengthening their role in global multilateral institutions.Beijing remains committed to mutual support with Latin American countries on key issues tied to their core interests and major priorities.China aims to expand collaboration with the region across sectors including infrastructure, agriculture, food security, energy, and mineral resources.China to offer 66 billion yuan credit line to support Latin America and Caribbean countries. Related news Australian Dollar remains subdued following Westpac Consumer Confidence Index data US Trade Rep. Greer: If things don’t work out, China tariffs can go back up Rising after the thaw: China's economy post-trade truce
06:01 WTI moves below $61.50, downside seems limited due to easing of US-China trade tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price paused its three-day winning streak, trading around $61.40 per barrel during Asian hours on Tuesday. Despite this pullback, Oil prices remain underpinned by optimism following progress in the United States (US)-China trade negotiations.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price may recover amid renewed optimism driven by progress in US-China trade talks.The two nations have reached a preliminary agreement in Switzerland to substantially reduce tariffs, indicating a de-escalation in trade tensions.Oil prices may struggle due to concerns over a possible supply glut, especially with the prospect of increased OPEC+ output.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price paused its three-day winning streak, trading around $61.40 per barrel during Asian hours on Tuesday. Despite this pullback, Oil prices remain underpinned by optimism following progress in the United States (US)-China trade negotiations.Over the weekend, the United States and China reached a preliminary deal in Switzerland to significantly reduce tariffs, signaling a possible easing of trade tensions. Under the agreement, the US will lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will cut its tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. The breakthrough has been widely welcomed by markets as a key step toward de-escalation.However, downside risks to Oil prices persist. Concerns about oversupply continue to weigh on the Oil market, particularly with OPEC+ signaling a potential increase in output for May and June. Adding to the pressure, President Donald Trump indicated progress in nuclear talks with Iran, fueling speculation that US sanctions on Iranian oil exports could be eased.Geopolitical developments are also in focus. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has invited President Trump to participate in potential peace talks in Turkey this week, as Kyiv intensifies efforts to secure a cease-fire in the ongoing conflict with Russia.On the regulatory front, the US Department of Energy announced plans on Monday to eliminate or revise more than 40 regulations and programs as part of President Trump’s push to roll back federal oversight and diversity initiatives. The department claims the move could save taxpayers $11 billion and marks the first phase of its most extensive deregulation drive to date.Looking ahead, market participants are awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April, scheduled later on Tuesday. Analysts expect headline inflation to rebound to 0.3% month-over-month from a previous -0.1%, while core CPI is also projected to rise to 0.3% from 0.1%. Year-over-year figures for both are forecast to remain unchanged. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
06:00 US CPI set to show steady inflation as focus turns to early tariff impact
The high-impact United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for April will be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT.
.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Consumer Price Index is set to rise 2.4% YoY in April, the same growth rate as in March.The core CPI inflation is forecast to hold steady at 2.8% last month.April’s inflation data could impact the Fed’s policy outlook, rocking the US Dollar.The high-impact United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for April will be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT.The CPI data will likely have a significant impact on the US Dollar’s (USD) performance and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) path forward on interest rates.What to expect in the next CPI data report?As measured by the CPI, inflation in the US is forecast to rise at an annual rate of 2.4% in April, at the same pace as in March. The core CPI inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is expected to stay at 2.8% year-over-year (YoY) in the reported period, as against a 2.8% growth in the previous month.On a monthly basis, the CPI and the core CPI are projected to rise by 0.3% each.Previewing the report, analysts at BBH highlighted: “Keep an eye on super core (core services less housing), a key measure of underlying inflation. In March, super core inflation fell to a four-year low of 2.9% YoY vs. 3.8% in February. Higher tariffs can ultimately derail the disinflationary process.”How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect EUR/USD?At its May policy meeting last week, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, maintaining a cautious stance on the policy outlook. The Fed’s policy statement underscored that risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen.During the post-policy meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that near-term inflation expectations have increased due to tariffs and added that it's time for them to wait before adjusting policy. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates that the odds of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in June stand at 15%, down from about 34% at the start of the month.Over the weekend, the US and China said they made substantial progress at the high-level trade negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The highly anticipated US-China joint statement on the first round of trade talks showed that both sides agreed to suspend part of their tariffs for 90 days, with tariffs to come down by 115 percentage points (US cut levies to 30% from 145% and China to 10% from 125%). Amid US-China trade deal optimism, the US Dollar (USD) build on its recent recovery momentum heading into the inflation data release. A surprise uptick in the annual headline CPI inflation print could affirm bets that the Fed will hold the policy in June. In this case, the USD could see another leg higher in an immediate reaction, smashing the EUR/USD pair back toward the 1.1000 threshold.Conversely, a softer-than-expected reading could revive the USD downtrend on renewed dovish Fed expectations, helping EUR/USD stage a comeback toward the 1.1300 round figure.Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD and explains:“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart has pierced through the midline from above as EUR/USD extends the break below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1317 after having failed several attempts to find acceptance above the 1.1380 hurdle this month.”“On the upside, the immediate resistance is at the 21-day SMA at 1.1322, above which the 1.1380 static level and 1.1450 psychological barrier will be targeted. Alternatively, the first support could be spotted at the 50-day SMA at 1.1063 and the 1.1000 mark.” Related news Gold bleeds after US-China agree to major tariff reductions, easing fears of protracted trade war US-China agree to sharply cut reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, easing fears of protracted trade war Week ahead: US inflation data due out next week Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue May 13, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 2.4% Previous: 2.4% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
05:35 USD/INR posts modest gains on US-China trade truce
The Indian Rupee (INR) softens on Tuesday, pressured by the firmer Greenback. Positive indications from the United States and China trade talks lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the Indian currency.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Indian Rupee trades in negative territory in Tuesday’s Asian session. Optimism from US-China trade talks underpins the US Dollar and drags the INR lower. Traders brace for the Indian and US CPI reports, due later on Tuesday. The Indian Rupee (INR) softens on Tuesday, pressured by the firmer Greenback. Positive indications from the United States and China trade talks lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the Indian currency. Additionally, an intensification of the India-Pakistan conflict might exert some selling pressure on the local currency. Nonetheless, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have resumed buying of Indian equities, which might provide some support to the INR. Looking ahead, investors will keep an eye on the Indian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which will be released later on Tuesday. On the US docket, the CPI inflation report is also due. The headline CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.4% YoY in April, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 2.8% YoY in the same report period.Indian Rupee loses ground amid US-China trade deal progressIndia’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday stated that India will not tolerate any "nuclear blackmail.” Modi added that operations against Pakistan have only been paused, and the future will depend on their behavior.The ceasefire remained intact in Jammu and Kashmir and across border towns overnight, following PM Modi's stern message to terrorists and Pakistan. US President Donald Trump agreed to cut extra tariffs imposed on Chinese imports in April this year to 30% from 145%, and Chinese duties on US imports will be reduced to 10% from 125%. The fresh measures are effective for 90 days.Swap markets have priced in the Fed’s first 25 basis points (bps) rate cut for the September meeting, and they expect two additional rate reductions towards the end of the year. Last week, they indicated three cuts this year, with a change likely as soon as July. USD/INR keeps the bearish vibe below the key 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee edges lower on the day. The bearish outlook of the USD/INR pair prevails as the price remains capped under the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The downward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 44.15, suggesting that further downside looks favorable. The first downside target for USD/INR emerges at 84.53, the low of May 8. Red candlesticks below this level could see a drop to 84.12, the low of May 5. The next contention level to watch is 83.76, the low of May 2. On the other hand, the 85.00 psychological level acts as the immediate resistance level for the pair. Sustained trading above the mentioned level could see a rally to 85.60, the 100-day EMA, en route to 86.00, the upper boundary of the trend channel and round figure. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
05:07 USD/JPY falls below 148.00 despite persistent uncertainty over BoJ’s policy outlook
USD/JPY pulls back after registering more than 2% gains in the previous session, trading around 147.90 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair depreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains ground despite a persistent uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate outlook.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY retreats after gaining over 2% in the previous session.The BoJ’s latest policy summary underscores lingering uncertainty, suggesting a divergence of views among policymakers over the policy outlook.BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida noted that US tariffs pose both upside and downside risks to Japan’s inflation outlook.USD/JPY pulls back after registering more than 2% gains in the previous session, trading around 147.90 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair depreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains ground despite a persistent uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate outlook.BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida acknowledged both upside and downside risks stemming from potential US tariffs, noting that such measures could weigh on Japan’s economy. He added that Japan's economic growth is expected to slow toward its potential rate before gradually recovering, assuming a rebound in overseas economies.Deputy Governor Uchida also pointed to rising wages driven by a tight labor market, suggesting firms are likely to continue passing on higher labor costs, which may support underlying inflation and inflation expectations over time.Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato commented Tuesday on the possibility of meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to discuss foreign exchange matters and potentially the ongoing tariff negotiations. He reiterated that Japan will closely watch the US-China tariff discussions, though he refrained from commenting on currency levels.The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions from its April 30–May 1 monetary policy meeting highlighted persistent uncertainty as a key concern. One member indicated that the central bank is likely to continue raising interest rates in line with economic and inflation improvements. Another emphasized the need to maintain the current rate-hike stance, noting that real interest rates remain deeply negative, while calling for careful risk assessment. A separate member expressed concern over the US’s trade policy, warning that increased tariffs could significantly impact Japan’s economic outlook and inflation trajectory.The US and China agreed over the weekend to pause the imposition of steep triple-digit tariffs as part of preliminary trade talks. This temporary truce provides markets with short-term relief ahead of the US’s planned "reciprocal" tariff schedule set to resume in 90 days.Looking ahead, traders are focused on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April, due later Tuesday. Headline inflation is expected to rebound to 0.3% month-over-month from -0.1% previously, while core CPI is also forecast to rise to 0.3% from 0.1%. Year-over-year figures for both measures are projected to remain steady. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
04:52 BoJ’s Uchida: There are both upside, downside risks from US tariffs on Japan’s prices
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Tuesday that “there are both upside, downside risks from US tariffs on Japan’s prices.”
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Tuesday that “there are both upside, downside risks from US tariffs on Japan’s prices.”Additional commentsUS tariffs put downward pressure on Japan's economy.Japan's economic growth is expected to slow to around its potential before resuming moderate growth as overseas economies recover.Japan's output gap to remain around current levels, after which it will resume improvement toward end of the BoJ’s three-year projection period through fiscal 2027.The BoJ expected to keep raising interest rates if economy, prices improve as we project.Japan's underlying inflation, medium- and long-term inflation expectations will likely stagnate temporarily.But even during that period, wages are expected to continue rising as Japan's job market very tight, firms likely to continue passing on rising labour costs.Market reactionUSD/JPY keeps the offered tone intact following these headlines, down 0.38% on the day at 147.88 as of writing. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
04:39 Japan’s Kato: Hope to have a meeting with US Treasury Sec. Bessent to discuss forex
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that “if have a chance, hope to have a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to discuss forex.”
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that “if have a chance, hope to have a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to discuss forex.”Additional quotesMaking preparations to join G7 meetings in Banff.Possible to discuss the tariff deal if a meeting with Bessent is realised.Will closely monitor the US-China tariff deal.Won’t comment on forex levels.Will closely watch out markets developments caused by the US-China tariff deal.
04:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence climbed from previous -3 to -1 in April
Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence climbed from previous -3 to -1 in April
04:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions declined to 2 in April from previous 4
Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions declined to 2 in April from previous 4
04:27 Australian Dollar remains subdued following Westpac Consumer Confidence Index data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is extending its decline against the US Dollar (USD) for a second consecutive session on Tuesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar depreciated as the US and China reached a preliminary agreement to significantly reduce tariffs after Geneva talks.Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence Index rose 2.2% MoM, recovering from a 6.0% drop in the previous month.US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that if things don’t work out, China tariffs can go back up.The Australian Dollar (AUD) is extending its decline against the US Dollar (USD) for a second consecutive session on Tuesday. The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure despite a rebound in Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, which rose 2.2% month-on-month to 92.1 in May, recovering from a 6.0% drop in the previous month and marking its third increase this year.The AUD/USD pair weakened further as the US Dollar strengthened following news that the United States and China reached a preliminary agreement to significantly reduce tariffs after productive trade talks over the weekend in Switzerland. Under the deal, US tariffs on Chinese goods will be reduced from 145% to 30%, while China will lower its tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%—a move broadly viewed as a major step toward de-escalating trade tensions.Australia, which has deep trade ties with China, is particularly sensitive to shifts in US-China relations. The easing of global trade tensions has also led investors to scale back expectations for aggressive domestic interest rate cuts. Markets now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lower the cash rate to around 3.1% by the end of the year, up from earlier forecasts of 2.85%. However, the RBA is still widely anticipated to implement a 25 basis point rate cut at its upcoming policy meeting.Australian Dollar depreciates as US Dollar advances following two-day US-China discussionThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower around 101.60 at the time of writing. Traders will keep an eye on the US April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is due later on Tuesday.After two days of negotiations aimed at easing trade tensions, both the US and China reported “substantial progress.” China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng described the talks as “an important first step” toward stabilizing bilateral relations.Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer called the discussions a constructive move toward narrowing the $400 billion trade imbalance. However, Greer warned later that if the agreement falls through, tariffs on Chinese goods could be reinstated.Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, but its accompanying statement highlighted rising concerns about inflation and unemployment, adding a layer of uncertainty to the market outlook.Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a post-meeting press conference, warned that ongoing trade tariffs could hinder the central bank’s efforts to manage inflation and employment in 2025. He also suggested that persistent policy instability may prompt the Fed to take a more cautious, wait-and-see approach to future rate moves.China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined for the third consecutive month in April, falling 0.1% year-on-year, matching both the market forecast and the drop recorded in March, according to data released Saturday by the National Bureau of Statistics. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) contracted 2.7% YoY in April, steeper than the 2.5% drop in March and below the market expectation of a 2.6% decline.On the trade front, China posted a trade surplus of $96.18 billion in April, exceeding the forecast of $89 billion but down from March’s $102.63 billion. Exports rose 8.1% YoY, outperforming the expected 1.9% but slowing from the 12.4% gain seen previously. Imports dipped 0.2% YoY, a milder decline than both the forecasted -5.9% and March’s -4.3%. China’s trade surplus with the US narrowed to $20.46 billion from $27.6 billion in March.Australia’s Ai Group Industry Index showed improvement in April, although it marked the 33rd straight month of contraction—particularly driven by weakness in export-reliant manufacturing. These signs of persistent softness have strengthened market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% later this month.Australian Dollar may target 0.6350 support near nine-day EMAThe AUD/USD pair is hovering near 0.6370 on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a bearish outlook, with the pair trading below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the 50 mark, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.The AUD/USD pair is likely to test initial support at the 50-day EMA around 0.6344. A decisive break below this level could strengthen the bearish bias and open the door for a decline toward 0.5914 — a level not seen since March 2020.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could retest the nine-day EMA at 0.6402 and potentially revisit the six-month high of 0.6515, recorded on December 2, 2024. A sustained break above this level may pave the way for a move toward the seven-month high of 0.6687 from November 2024.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.17% -0.05% -0.41% 0.06% 0.03% -0.04% -0.25% EUR 0.17% 0.12% -0.25% 0.22% 0.21% 0.15% -0.05% GBP 0.05% -0.12% -0.35% 0.10% 0.09% 0.01% -0.18% JPY 0.41% 0.25% 0.35% 0.48% 0.46% 0.36% 0.21% CAD -0.06% -0.22% -0.10% -0.48% -0.11% -0.09% -0.30% AUD -0.03% -0.21% -0.09% -0.46% 0.11% -0.06% -0.27% NZD 0.04% -0.15% -0.01% -0.36% 0.09% 0.06% -0.21% CHF 0.25% 0.05% 0.18% -0.21% 0.30% 0.27% 0.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Westpac Consumer Confidence The Westpac Consumer Confidence released by the Faculty of Economics and Commerce Melbourne Institute captures the level of sentiment that individuals have in economic activity reflecting respondents' evaluations of their family finances over the past and coming year, expectations about the one-year and five-year economic conditions and views about current buying conditions for major household items. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Tue May 13, 2025 00:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2.2% Consensus: - Previous: -6% Source: University of Melbourne
04:22 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1991 vs. 7.2066 previous
On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1991 as compared to Monday's fix of 7.2066 and 7.2180 Reuters estimate.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1991 as compared to Monday's fix of 7.2066 and 7.2180 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:18 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains on the defensive amid positive signs from US-China trade talks
The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $3,235 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal remains on the defensive due to a stronger US Dollar (USD), higher US yields, and optimism on the US-China trade deal.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price trades in negative territory around $3,235 in Tuesday’s Asian session. US and China agreed to de-escalate their trade war by lowering import tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days. Traders brace for the US April CPI inflation report, which is due later on Tuesday. The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $3,235 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal remains on the defensive due to a stronger US Dollar (USD), higher US yields, and optimism on the US-China trade deal. Later on Tuesday, traders will take more cues from the US April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.Improved risk sentiment following the announcement of a temporary deal between the United States (US) and China to reduce tariffs has weighed on the safe-haven asset, like the Gold price. The US will cut extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports in April this year to 30% from 145%, and Chinese duties on US imports will be reduced to 10% from 125%. The fresh measures are effective for 90 days."The de-escalation of tensions between China and the US is reducing the demand for safe haven assets like gold," said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at Swiss bank and London bullion clearer UBS.Gold traders brace for the US CPI inflation data on Tuesday, which might offer some hints about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path. The headline CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.4% YoY in April, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 2.8% YoY in the same report period.Swap markets have priced in the Fed’s first 25 basis points (bps) rate cut for the September meeting, and they expect two additional rate reductions towards the end of the year. Last week, they indicated three cuts this year, with a change likely as soon as July. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Monday that operations against Pakistan have only been kept in abeyance, and the future will depend on their behaviour. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted he is prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, shortly after Trump urged him to “immediately” accept the Russian leader’s offer to hold peace talks in Turkey. Any signs of escalating geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the yellow metal. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
03:32 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence: 2.2% (May) vs -6%
Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence: 2.2% (May) vs -6%
03:26 US Trade Rep. Greer: If things don’t work out, China tariffs can go back up
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said late Monday that China has agreed to remove countermeasures. However, if things don’t work out, China tariffs can go back up.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said late Monday that China has agreed to remove countermeasures. However, if things don’t work out, China tariffs can go back up.Key quotesChina has agreed to remove countermeasures.
Outcome of China tariff talks ‘pragmatic’.
If things don’t work out, China tariffs can go back up.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.03% higher on the day to trade at 0.6375. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
Outcome of China tariff talks ‘pragmatic’.
If things don’t work out, China tariffs can go back up.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.03% higher on the day to trade at 0.6375. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
03:18 NZD/USD gathers strength above 0.5850 as US and China agree to ease tariffs for 90 days
The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory around 0.5865 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the Greenback after the US and China announced a trade deal, easing fears of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD attracts some buyers to around 0.5865 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. The US and China agreed to a 90-day pause on tariffs and a reduction in reciprocal tariffs.Markets expect two additional rate cuts towards the end of the year.The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory around 0.5865 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the Greenback after the US and China announced a trade deal, easing fears of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Traders will keep an eye on the US April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is due later on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump hailed a “total reset” in relations between China and the US after the countries agreed to a 90-day pause on tariffs and a reduction in reciprocal tariffs by 115 percentage points. With the 115 percentage point deduction, Chinese duties on US goods will be lowered to 10%, while the US tax on Chinese goods will be reduced to 30%. These positive developments provide some support to the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. On the other hand, the easing of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies gives investors their clearest indication yet that the Trump administration is taking a softer approach than expected, raising hope that the US economy can avoid a recession. This might lift the US Dollar (USD) and create a headwind for the pair. Swap markets have priced in the Fed’s first 25 basis points (bps) rate cut for the September meeting, and they expect two additional rate reductions towards the end of the year. Last week, they indicated three cuts this year, with a change likely as soon as July. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
03:07 Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) declined to 0.5% in April from previous 0.8%
Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) declined to 0.5% in April from previous 0.8%
03:07 Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) dipped from previous 0.8% to 0% in April
Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) dipped from previous 0.8% to 0% in April
03:04 BoJ Summary of Opinions: Member says uncertainty surrounding economy, price outlook is high
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the Summary of Opinions from the monetary policy meeting on April 30 and May 1, 2025, with the key findings noted below.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the Summary of Opinions from the monetary policy meeting on April 30 and May 1, 2025, with the key findings noted below. Key quotesOne member said BOJ is likely to keep raising interest rates in accordance with improvements in the economy, prices.
One member said no change to BOJ’s rate-hike stance as real interest rates are deeply negative, but must scrutinise risks.
One member said uncertainty surrounding economy, price outlook high, likelihood of achieving price goal not as high as in past.
One member said BoJ has little choice but to take wait-and-see stance until developments surrounding U.S. trade policy stabilise to some extent.
One member said BoJ will enter a temporary pause in rate hikes but shouldn’t slide into excessive pessimism, must guide policy nimbly and flexibly.
One member said the chance of Japan’s underlying inflation faltering is small.
One member said US trade policy development could turn positive or negative any time, which means BOJ’s policy path could change any time as well.
One member said our projections have been severely jolted by US trade policy with higher US tariffs likely to weigh on Japan’s economy, prices.
Market reaction Following the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions, the USD/JPY pair is down 0.07% on the day to trade at 148.20 as of writing. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
One member said no change to BOJ’s rate-hike stance as real interest rates are deeply negative, but must scrutinise risks.
One member said uncertainty surrounding economy, price outlook high, likelihood of achieving price goal not as high as in past.
One member said BoJ has little choice but to take wait-and-see stance until developments surrounding U.S. trade policy stabilise to some extent.
One member said BoJ will enter a temporary pause in rate hikes but shouldn’t slide into excessive pessimism, must guide policy nimbly and flexibly.
One member said the chance of Japan’s underlying inflation faltering is small.
One member said US trade policy development could turn positive or negative any time, which means BOJ’s policy path could change any time as well.
One member said our projections have been severely jolted by US trade policy with higher US tariffs likely to weigh on Japan’s economy, prices.
Market reaction Following the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions, the USD/JPY pair is down 0.07% on the day to trade at 148.20 as of writing. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
02:32 EUR/USD takes a halting plunge, tests below 1.10 as key inflation data looms ahead
EUR/USD took a hard step lower on Monday, kicking off the new trading week with a fresh dip below 1.1000 before a late recovery pushed the pair back toward 1.1100.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD took a tumble on Monday, closing 1.4% lower a brief test below 1.1000.A (temporary) walkback of US-China tariffs bolstered risk appetite.Key US CPI inflation data looms ahead, with EU GDP growth figures around the corner.EUR/USD took a hard step lower on Monday, kicking off the new trading week with a fresh dip below 1.1000 before a late recovery pushed the pair back toward 1.1100. The Fiber still closed 1.4% lower on the day, and investors are bracing for a fresh batch of United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data due on Tuesday.Forex Today: All the attention shifts to US Inflation dataThe US and China have jointly decided to pause steep triple-digit tariffs during initial trade discussions over the weekend, giving markets a brief respite before the US’s unusual “reciprocal” tariff schedule is set to resume in 90 days. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for April will be closely monitored this Tuesday. Headline CPI inflation is projected to rise to 0.3% month-over-month from the previous -0.1%, while core CPI inflation is anticipated to increase to 0.3% from 0.1%. Despite these monthly changes, both core and headline inflation are expected to remain stable YoY.US CPI inflation, EU GDP growth on the docket this weekFinal German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation is due on Wednesday, but no major changes are expected in the non-preliminary data. Advance pan-European Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures are slated for Thursday, and will be Euro traders’ big print for the week. Markets broadly expect both QoQ and annualized GDP growth to hold steady at previous figures of 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively.EUR/USD price forecastEUR/USD’s fresh bearish plunge on Monday saw the pair test below 1.1000 for the first time since early April. The pair is still trading north of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1070, but only just.Price momentum has been firmly bearish since the pair peaked above 1.1500 and failed to hold the critical level. Daily candles have closed bearish more often than not for the last 14 consecutive trading sessions, or nearly three weeks.EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:06 USD/CAD extends upside above 1.3950 on firmer US dollar after US-China trade talks
The USD/CAD pair extends the rally to around 1.3975 during the early Asian session on Tuesday, bolstered by a stronger US Dollar (USD).
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD gains momentum to around 1.3975 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. Easing trade tensions between the US and China lifts the US Dollar. Higher crude oil prices might boost the Loonie and cap the pair’s upside. The USD/CAD pair extends the rally to around 1.3975 during the early Asian session on Tuesday, bolstered by a stronger US Dollar (USD). The Canadian Dollar (CAD) marked its weakest point since April 10 against the Greenback since April 10 after a US-China trade deal gave the American currency a boost.The easing of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies gives investors their clearest indication yet that US President Donald Trump is taking a softer approach than expected. This raises hope that the US economy can avoid a recession, which, in turn, lifts the US dollar broadly. "Continued strength in the DXY (U.S. dollar index) is expected to keep the loonie under pressure in the next trading session," said Karim Francis, head of currency risk management, North America, at Convera Canada ULC.Investors now expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut its interest rates just twice in 2025. Swaps tied to Fed meetings now favor a 25 basis points (bps) reduction in September. Last week, they indicated three cuts this year, with a change likely as soon as July.Meanwhile, a rise in Crude Oil prices could underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and cap the upside for the pair. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
02:03 GBP/USD falls back as tariff cuts bolster market sentiment
GBP/USD fell on Monday, tumbling a little over one percent and pushing the pair back down below the 1.3200 handle after a broad-based recovery in Greenback bidding.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD declined a full 1% on Monday after US tariff walkback boosted Greenback.Key UK and US data looms ahead on Tuesday.UK labor data will be followed up by a key US CPI inflation print.GBP/USD fell on Monday, tumbling a little over one percent and pushing the pair back down below the 1.3200 handle after a broad-based recovery in Greenback bidding. The United States (US) and China mutually agreed to temporarily suspend steep triple-digit tariffs during preliminary trade talks over the weekend, and markets have some room to breathe before the US’s bizarre “reciprocal” tariff schedule is set to come back into effect in 90 days.Forex Today: All the attention shifts to US Inflation dataTraders will be hitting the ground running on Tuesday: a fresh batch of employment figures is due from the UK, followed by a key batch of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data due during the upcoming American market session. UK Claimant Count Change is expected to have ticked higher in April, forecast to rise to 22.3K versus March’s 18.7K print. The ILO Unemployment Rate is also expected to tick higher to 4.5% for the three months ending in March, and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to decline slightly.US inflation data to draw plenty of eyesUS CPI inflation for April will be a hotly-watched data print on Tuesday. Headline CPI inflation in April is expected to jump to 0.3% MoM from the previous -0.1% print, and core CPI inflation is expected to rise to a matching 0.3% from 0.1%. However, core and headline inflation are expected to hold steady on an annualized basis.GBP/USD price forecastDespite a near-term bearish turnaround, GBP/USD holds firmly onto the bullish side. The pair is still trading on the high end of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3085. However, price action has slipped notably from recent highs posted north of the 1.3400 handle.GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:01 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips as US-China trade truce boosts US Dollar
Silver price ended Monday’s session with losses of over 0.40% as upbeat news from last weekend's meetings between US and Chinese delegations delivered an agreement to reduce tariffs for 90 days, marking the beginning of negotiations.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver trades sideways in $32.00–$33.00 range as trade optimism offsets Dollar strengthBreak below $31.86 (100-day SMA) may target $31.25 and $31.00; upside capped at $32.74 (50-day SMA)US-China tariff de-escalation lifts sentiment but pressures safe-haven demand for Silver.Silver price ended Monday’s session with losses of over 0.40% as upbeat news from last weekend's meetings between US and Chinese delegations delivered an agreement to reduce tariffs for 90 days, marking the beginning of negotiations. The XAG/USD trades at $32.56, unchanged as Tuesday’s Asian session begins.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookSilver price has consolidated within the $32.00-$33.00 range over the last five trading days, amid a lack of commitment from buyers and sellers to push the grey metal upward or downward due to geopolitical uncertainty and the Greenback’s volatility.As the US Dollar posts solid gains, XAG/USD could be headed to challenge the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.86. Once cleared, the next support level would be the 200-day SMA at $31.25, followed by the $31.00 figure.Conversely, if XAG/USD climbs past the 50-day SMA at $32.74, the next resistance would be the $33.00 psychological mark. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the $33.50, followed by $34.00.XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
01:00 AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Aussie holds near 1.0900 as bullish momentum persists
The AUD/NZD pair edged higher on Monday, trading near the 1.0900 zone after the European session, reflecting a steady bullish tone as the market heads into the Asian session.
AUD/NZD trades near the 1.0900 zone after modest gains in Monday’s session.Short-term indicators support the bullish bias despite mixed longer-term signals.Key support levels hold below, while resistance aligns near recent highs.The AUD/NZD pair edged higher on Monday, trading near the 1.0900 zone after the European session, reflecting a steady bullish tone as the market heads into the Asian session. Price action remains within the middle of its daily range, suggesting that buyers maintain control despite some longer-term resistance levels. The immediate outlook is supported by rising short-term averages, though broader challenges remain.From a technical perspective, the pair is flashing a bullish overall signal. The Relative Strength Index sits in the 50s, indicating balanced momentum without immediate overbought conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence confirms the broader uptrend with a buy signal, reinforcing the positive tone. Meanwhile, the Bull Bear Power remains near neutral, reflecting stable short-term conditions, while both the Stochastic %K and Williams Percent Range also indicate neutral momentum, suggesting the pair is not yet overextended.Short-term trend indicators align with the bullish sentiment. The 10-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages, both positioned near current price levels, are trending higher and provide immediate dynamic support. The 20-day Simple Moving Average also supports the bullish outlook, further reinforcing the broader uptrend. However, the longer-term 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages remain above current levels, suggesting that broader selling pressure may still cap gains in the medium term.Support is located at 1.0867, 1.0854, and 1.0828. Resistance is found at 1.0879, 1.0925, and 1.0947. A break above the immediate resistance zone could confirm a broader breakout, while a move below support might trigger a short-term correction, potentially testing the lower end of the recent range.Daily Chart
00:30 USD/JPY surges as Risk-On Sentiment Weighs on Safe-Haven Yen
The USD/JPY pair is trading near 148.00, up approximately 2% on the day, as risk-on sentiment dominates global markets following a significant breakthrough in US-China trade relations.
USD/JPY trades around 148.00, up nearly 2%, as the US-China tariff truce boosts risk appetite.The US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction, with the US cutting duties to 30% and China to 10%, supporting the US Dollar.Key support levels are 146.45, 146.29, and 145.69, while resistance sits at 149.56, 149.62, and 150.37.The USD/JPY pair is trading near 148.00, up approximately 2% on the day, as risk-on sentiment dominates global markets following a significant breakthrough in US-China trade relations. Over the weekend, the two economic giants agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction, with the US cutting its tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% (from 145%) and China reducing its duties to 10% (from 125%). This temporary de-escalation has sparked a rally in risky assets, weighing on traditional safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen.The US Dollar has surged in response to the trade truce, supported by a sharp rise in US bond yields. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to 4.45%, reflecting reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has gained over 1.25% to 101.74, its highest level in a month, further pressuring the yen. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler noted that while the tariff reduction is a positive development, the long-term impact on global supply chains remains uncertain, complicating the Fed's assessment of the US economy's underlying strength.On the Japanese side, recent data shows that Japan's March current account surplus came in at JPY 2.723 trillion, beating the expected JPY 2.465 trillion. However, Japanese investors were net sellers of foreign bonds in March, reducing exposure to overseas assets amid volatile global markets. This trend highlights the cautious sentiment among Japanese institutional investors despite the positive trade developments.Technical AnalysisThe USD/JPY is flashing a bullish signal, trading around 148.00 with roughly 2% gains today, near the top of its daily range (145.69 – 148.65). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in the 60s, suggesting neutral conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals buy momentum. Further confirming neutral momentum, the Bull Bear Power trades around 5, the Awesome Oscillator also signals neutral conditions, and the Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) resides in the 60s.The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports the buy signal, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs suggest selling, reflecting a mixed long-term outlook. Both the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day SMA hover in the 140s, aligning with the overall bullish sentiment.Key support levels are found around 146.45, 146.29, and 145.69, while resistance lies around 149.56, 149.62, and 150.37. A break above 149.60 could signal further upside, while a decline below 146.30 may open the door for a deeper correction.Daily Chart
00:14 Banxico seen cutting rates 50 bps according to poll – Reuters
On May 15, Banco de México, also known as Banxico, is expected to reduce interest rates to 8.5%, according to a Reuters poll on Monday, despite high inflation levels near the top of the central bank’s range.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
On May 15, Banco de México, also known as Banxico, is expected to reduce interest rates to 8.5%, according to a Reuters poll on Monday, despite high inflation levels near the top of the central bank’s range.Of 31 economists polled, 30 expect Banxico to deliver its third straight 50 bps cut. At the latest monetary policy meeting, Banxico stated it could consider further significant rate adjustments in subsequent decisions if allowed by inflation.Mexico’s latest inflation report, released last week, revealed that prices rose by 3.93% year-over-year (YoY) in April.Banxico’s policymakers appear concerned about economic growth, as evident in their recent media appearances. Private analysts said the risks of another economic contraction remain.For the June meeting, 19 of 21 analysts expect another rate cut at the June meeting. The poll revealed that the median of 23 forecasts Mexico’s key interest rate level is expected to end at 7.75% by the end of the year. Banxico FAQs What is the Bank of Mexico? The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%. How does the Bank of Mexico’s monetary policy influence the Mexican Peso? The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor. How often does the Bank of Mexico meet during the year? Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.
00:00 EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Euro holds near 165.00 as bullish momentum builds
The EUR/JPY pair advanced on Monday, trading near the 165.00 zone after the European session, reflecting a strong bullish tone as the market heads into the Asian session.
EUR/JPY trades around the 165.00 zone after a solid advance in Monday’s session.Broader bias remains bullish, supported by upward-trending moving averages and strong momentum.Key support levels hold below, while resistance is yet to be firmly established.The EUR/JPY pair advanced on Monday, trading near the 165.00 zone after the European session, reflecting a strong bullish tone as the market heads into the Asian session. The pair remains positioned within the middle of its recent range, suggesting that buyers maintain control despite some mixed short-term signals. The broader technical structure remains supportive, underpinned by a cluster of rising moving averages and firm momentum readings.From a technical perspective, the pair is flashing a clear bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index sits in the 60s, reflecting steady upward momentum without immediate overbought pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence confirms this bias with a buy signal, reinforcing the positive tone. Meanwhile, the Commodity Channel Index trades in the 170s, indicating stable momentum, while the Awesome Oscillator remains around 1, suggesting further upside potential. The Stochastic RSI Fast, however, remains in neutral territory, hinting at a potential pause in the near term.The bullish structure is further supported by the moving averages. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages all slope upward, providing strong underlying support and confirming the broader uptrend. Additionally, the 10-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages also hover near current price levels, reinforcing the immediate bullish outlook as the pair looks to extend gains.Support levels are identified at 163.86, 163.26, and 163.12. While resistance is not yet firmly established, a sustained push above recent highs could confirm a broader breakout, potentially opening the door to further upside in the sessions ahead.Daily Chart
Risk warning: Trading is risky. Your capital is at risk. Exinity Limited is regulated by FSC (Mauritius).